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Refining for cheap

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  • Darkhawkclaw - Heavens TearDarkhawkclaw - Heavens Tear Posts: 285 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    still it remains that there is no set of rules for cheap refining?
  • Devoted - Lost City Devoted - Lost City Posts: 3,634 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    ~wonders why i can't get over 25% chance of refining to +1 after almost 100 tries, never remembered it being this hard, streaks of 6+ unsuccessful is happening far too much for it to possibly be 50%
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    still it remains that there is no set of rules for cheap refining?
    There are no clear "rules", because the best/cheapest way to refine (Mirage/Tisha/Tienkand/Dragon Orb) depends upon what the current prices are on your server. The spreadsheet I made will calculate which stones will give you the best odds:
    Zoho Sheet - Refining Guide

    If you have Excel, here is a version optimized for maximum speed that can run millions of simulated refining attempts, but it won't run simulations under Zoho sheet, so you need to "Export" it to your local computer first:
    Excel Version - Refining Guide
    (Note: Even if you don't have Excel, you might want to take a look at this sheet to see the results of 1million attempts to refine to +5, using the same amount of coin that would be required to refine to +5 using Dragon Orbs)

    ~wonders why i can't get over 25% chance of refining to +1 after almost 100 tries, never remembered it being this hard, streaks of 6+ unsuccessful is happening far too much for it to possibly be 50%
    That sucks... My refining luck has actually been quite good this week (2 +5 refines for under 1.5million each), but I admit I've seen some fairly weird runs of luck in all my trials. For example, I've seen 11 +1 fails in a row.

    On the other hand, I've also seen a +7 Mirage-only refine and a +10 Tienkang refine, but both were on the non-PWI server where they didn't actually mean anything.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Problem is, that mirages stone goes up on price. When all sale pack are gone, mirages going up.b:cry
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    i refined by officer who should increace refine for +3 but i failed almost all +3
    i doubt that this rumour is true

    and how should i use the tisha and tienkang stones from the public quest? to +2/3 tienkang or tisha or how? and shoul i try to go higher
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    some1 know :O?
  • Vitenka - DreamweaverVitenka - Dreamweaver Posts: 4,125 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Read the thread.

    Obey the thread.
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Apparently the officer trick only works if your faction currently owns the area you're trying to refine in.
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Apparently the officer trick only works if your faction currently owns the area you're trying to refine in.

    we do and +3 failed like 3-4 times before i did it
  • OneHottShot - Heavens TearOneHottShot - Heavens Tear Posts: 704 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Finding accurate information about refining seems to be really tricky. Other than, "Dragon Orbs give 100% of refining success," there seems to be a lot of guesswork and factually inaccurate claims out there.

    Now, I don't claim to know the truth either,
    so I'm wondering if my theory matches what other people have experienced.

    My theory, based on my (admittedly limited) experience, is that refining with just Mirages has a 40% chance of success. It doesn't seem to matter what level of refinement you already have, so whether you're going from +0 to +1, or +9 to +10, you've still got a 40% chance of success.

    If that's the case, then the average number of Mirages you'll need to refine a piece of armour is as follows:

    +1: 2.5
    +2: 6.25
    +3: 15.6
    +4: 39
    +5: 98
    +6: 244
    +7: 610
    +8: 1526
    +9: 3815
    +10: 9537
    +11: 23842
    +12: 59605

    If this is true (and this is why I'm asking what others have experienced), then at current inflated Gold prices vs. deflated Mirage prices you're better off, on average, using just Mirages and skipping Dragon Orbs.

    For example, at 15k per Mirage you'll average about 9million to +7 something, but if you buy Dragon Orbs at 400k Gold prices you'll spend about 48million.

    Does this sound about right, or am I way off?

    You are way off for some of us :P

    I tried refining a regular item last night. It took me 32 mirages to get my alts lvl 50 light armor to a +2. REDICULOUS!

    It too my husband 28 mirages to get his tt 90 axes to a +3. (Lucky sucker)He seems to ALWAYS have this kind of luck, and my luck is always bad.

    We use the same elder to refine... and I've also noticed that normally its harder to refine legendary gear than any others.

    This is a tragedy, whats worse; is I was using the stones that increase refinement.. such a waste.
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    63 mirages to +3 a protection belt for my gf. Comparing it to my 5 mirage +3 on my own leg HA leggings, it's a pretty disastrous result. I hit +2 at least 10 times and only succeeded once. Bad luck does happen though, hasn't quite put me off yet.
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    +3 my 9x wep with 10 mirages
    3 x +1 failed then +1 +2 with mirages +3 with tienkang

    4 tieknang and 5 tisha left

    ppl said me to stop , what u think?
  • Legerity - SanctuaryLegerity - Sanctuary Posts: 1,072 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    +3 my 9x wep with 10 mirages
    3 x +1 failed then +1 +2 with mirages +3 with tienkang

    4 tieknang and 5 tisha left

    ppl said me to stop , what u think?

    Wouldn't that be 12 mirages?

    3 fails, +1 success, +2 success and +3 success.

    6 attempts. 2 mirages each attempt regardless.
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    yes my mistake

    should i try +4 with tienkang?
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    we do and +3 failed like 3-4 times before i did it
    That's pretty much exactly normal. The odds are 30%, which is slightly less than 1 in 3. In the other version of PW that I tested, refining at the "correct" officer didn't change the odds at all.
    should i try +4 with tienkang?
    I wouldn't recommend it unless you you have a big enough pile of extra Mirages/Tienkangs that you're not worried about losing. Gambling is still gambling, after all.
    I tried refining a regular item last night. It took me 32 mirages to get my alts lvl 50 light armor to a +2. REDICULOUS!
    Yup. But you also have about a 3% chance of failing completely to get to +2 using 30 Mirages, so at least you were lucky enough to be within the 97%.

    I don't recommend people gamble with refining if they believe in or are relying on being lucky, or if they have a tendency to feel that "the odds are in my favour" = "it's a sure thing!". Personally, I never gamble unless I know for sure that the odds are in my favour, that I can afford to take the loss, and that I'm able to accept losses/successes without letting them cloud my judgment.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    FWIW, I got my weapon to +5 using 106 mirages (so 53 attempts). Just mirages to get to +3, then 3 tienkang stones for the +4 attempts (1 fail, 1 success) and +5 attempt (1 success). +5 on a weapon for about 2 mil worth of mirages. I'm not complaining.
  • neojin777neojin777 Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    i have tested refining for about 1 year on a private server.
    I can make +1-+10 by just using tienkang/tisha stones.
    Forget about the refine rates shown ingame, its basically all bs.
    It is easier to make a +9 item +10, than making a +0 item +3/+4.
    The fastest +10 i ever got was in like less than 1 minute on a lvl 129
    3 star sword. (2sockets amazing dmg stats *cough*)
    My secret is, if i refine i flip my screen upside down + wear my gorilla suit.
    Serious now, refining = luck and it depends on the DAY + TIME.
    Im having most luck in the early morning around 6-10 am on mondays
    in hidden hero village. ( small town near ethersword)
    The amount of mats needed may vary drastically, for example like i just
    stated if youre lucky you need like 1-20 minutes to +9/+10 and only a low amount of materials.
    My friend even managed to get his hh100 xbow to +11
    by just using tisha stones, no joke. I tried +11 myself for like 20-30 times,
    without a good result... I also noticed, that if you take your time on refining,
    for example you get an item to +3 dont go for +4 emediatly, wait for a while and try again later.
    Relogging after every succeeded refinement may also help
    but basically all you rly need is alot of time + alot of mirages + alot of materials.

    the way it rly works:

    +1 (plain mirages)

    +2 - +4 (tienkang blue stones)

    +5 - +10 (tisha green stones)


    enjoy ! P.S. refining can be very addictive, dont ruin yourselves.
  • Mayfly - DreamweaverMayfly - Dreamweaver Posts: 6,094 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    50 mirages to get a Crystal Headdress and Dark Pants of Hedes to +3.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Weekly Japanese/English bilingual webcomic
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  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    neojin777 wrote: »
    My secret is, if i refine i flip my screen upside down + wear my gorilla suit.
    Serious now, refining = luck and it depends on the DAY + TIME.
    Both methods would work equally well. b:chuckle

    Seriously though, I hate to sound like a broken record, but I really have confirmed 100%, absolutely, no-margin-for-error, that day + time (or any of the other rumours I was able to test) have no effect whatsoever on refining rates on the older non-PWI version of the game that I tested.
    neojin777 wrote: »
    the way it rly works:

    +1 (plain mirages)

    +2 - +4 (tienkang blue stones)

    +5 - +10 (tisha green stones)
    That's not a bad rule of thumb, although personally I'd wait until +3 or +4 before using the Tienkangs.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • neojin777neojin777 Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    i forgot to mention, that on the server i play, (no name no advertising - -) refining addons
    are for free since u get 1 mil cubi as you create an account ...
    very nice for testing builds and other features oh yes.
    its monday and i just got 3 new items to +9 in less than 2 hours.

    Do fortune stones still exist in the official pw servers? i almost forgot
    about these little stones, cause if the refinement fails, the refinement lvl
    wont drop -1 or to +0


    cheers,
    i go try +10 xD
  • Vitenka - DreamweaverVitenka - Dreamweaver Posts: 4,125 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    You do realise that boasting of playing on a private server is liable to get you banned, right?

    Private servers can set the refining rules to be anything they feel like. So experience there isn't usefully carried forward to here.
  • neojin777neojin777 Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I know for sure the refine rate is 100% the same as on pwi, since the
    server is based on the pwi + pwmy client version.

    And umm im not "boasting" just tired of spending 500 bucks a week for
    good equip on official servers, if u dont like it, keep it to yourself plz,
    youre not pw police dept. or are u? Go dig a hole or something if youre bored,
    idc, i dont know, rly... Consider me as refining EXPERT and all i try is to HELP
    ppl refine their items, so i need to share my knowledge with them. Agreed?
    ppl like u giving stupid comments about other ppls posts ruin most mmo
    forums in like no time, which is sad you should be thankful since i also share
    my refining tricks with you ! Bann me? i dont even play pwi i dont like the lvl
    cap... yes lvl 150 feels great and pvp is awsome with 35% crit (BM) hehe
    (or my 45k hp beast) ┌∩┐( ๏ ̯ ๏ )┌∩┐

    i went off topic but sorry i cannot stand it if little children tell me what to do.
    But hey, the highest ref. lvl i ever got on PWMY was +9 also not bad at all
    i guess.... Use my method + throw in some try & error.
    Dedicate a few hours, patience always pays off, in the end.


    if anybody needs any help with refining, material effects, rates etc. feel free
    to ask, im glad i can help !

    cheers !
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    You do realise that boasting of playing on a private server is liable to get you banned, right?

    Private servers can set the refining rules to be anything they feel like. So experience there isn't usefully carried forward to here.

    QFT

    This is PWI's official forums.

    You might as well walk into a police station and announce you like to take drugs. O_o
  • neojin777neojin777 Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Drugs are not illegal where i live so i doubt anybody would give a damn.
    And damn dude plz use your brain... there are like 150 different private servers and no1,
    rly no1 gives a shizz, servers come and go like daily. You, i, we, wont / cant change that.
    + i think i know what im talking about, since i started to play PW in malaysian closed beta,
    when youve still been playing tetris or tekken my friend....




    all i can say is use the refining method i posted, i worked on it for quite a long time by now
    = very very good chance of getting any gear to a decent ref. lvl, for -> cheap <-



    have a nice day !
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    neojin777 wrote: »
    Drugs are not illegal where i live so i doubt anybody would give a damn.



    have a nice day !

    Dun worry, I reported you anyways.

    You have a nice day. b:chuckle
  • neojin777neojin777 Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Dude, you pretty much seem to be a moron, if you would of read more
    carefully youd know already idc if i get banned from any **** website
    or videogame server im not advertising anything, neither giving a server name,
    all that ive tried to do was / is to help ppl, since i -> CAN <- (know how to) refine
    most efficiently, i know this must be quite hard to understand for such noob like u r...
    so why dont you just shut the f*** up and mind ur own business?
    All that noobz like u can do is trash talk, bit ch here and there, babble,
    babble u know.... nothing new to me rly.

    see, mate 1.4k posts... i dont need to comment this any further i guess, forum noob...
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Um... it would really be sad if this thread turned into an off-topic flame war. b:sad

    Maybe I'm biased, but I'm really happy how the PWI forum community worked together in this thread. Before I posted my question and (faulty) theory, even Google produced nothing but rumours, erroneous claims, and completely bogus data charts about refining.

    But then the PWI forum posters answered the call, tested the theories, compiled the data, worked together, etc... Everybody helped to improve the theories and test them, and seeing how many others were willing to sacrifice their own time and stacks of Mirages while maintaining tedious notes was really inspiring.

    Now thanks to everybody's help, encouragement, suggestions, and efforts, we've pretty much got the system figured out. When you consider how many other versions of PW there are out there, how long they've been out, and how many times people have wondered how exactly the refining system actually works, I'd say it's pretty impressive that it was the PWI forum that was the first and only PW community to have accurately answered the questions.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • neojin777neojin777 Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I didnt mean to flame anybody but a few ppl gave some pretty disrespectful
    comments / opinions.... kids these days..... well nvm






    i rly hope you guys get the system, good luck and happy gaming !
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    neojin777 wrote: »
    I didnt mean to flame anybody but a few ppl gave some pretty disrespectful
    comments / opinions.... kids these days..... well nvm

    i rly hope you guys get the system, good luck and happy gaming !
    Well, I at least do thank you for sharing your input/insights on your own experiences.
    So if you "superstitiously" only try refining your highly refined gear when you have succeeded twice in a row on some other gear then you would have a built in bias to only be trying when your chances of success were 35%. If both odds were equally possible for the extended period of time when you tested (and you would have to test over a long period of time for something like this) you would have almost a 2:1 bias in favor of using the 35% odds.
    Ah, ok, I understand what you mean now. That would indeed be a valid approach if the odds did shift over the course of the day.

    The testing that was done here on the forums by various individuals during various times of the day wasn't showing any noticeable differences in refining odds, but it was becoming clear to me that we were going to need much larger sample sizes to be sure. So that's when I started looking for other versions of PW that would allow me to attempt refining for much cheaper. In the process of doing so, I also began examining the game files themselves, something I can't/won't do with the PWI game files. That's when I located the chart that contains the basic refining odds. In addition, I eventually figured out where/how to look to see the exact refining odds themselves, as refining was happening. That gave me the Tienkang/Tisha odds, as well as giving proof that all the rumours were having no effect whatsoever on the refining odds. Even though this was all done on a non-PWI version of the game, I still don't want to discuss the technical details, but I will at least say that it's impossible to do with PWI anyway.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Ah, ok, I understand what you mean now. That would indeed be a valid approach if the odds did shift over the course of the day.

    The testing that was done here on the forums by various individuals during various times of the day wasn't showing any noticeable differences in refining odds,
    Actually, I tracked the deviations from the individual data sets while I was tracking the cumulative average and confidence interval. Here's a spiffy plot of them:

    refine_deviation.png

    The horizontal axis is n, the size of the individual data set. The vertical axis is normalized deviation from our data average, with the -1.00 to +1.00 range being the 95% confidence interval. As expected, the range of the scatter tightens up as n becomes larger, with 3 exceptions.

    The first is Peritia's +1 data set (n=108, dev=1.04, 61% success rate). This is close enough to the 95% mark that I'd chalk it up to random chance. There were 23 individual data sets (I threw out the +4 and +5 ones since the overall sample was too small to consider the average reliable), so with a 95% confidence interval you'd expect 1 or 2 to be outside the -1.00 to +1.00 range.

    The other two are both your data sets, Warren. Both of them +1 refines. The first was 56 success of 82 attempts, a rather phenomenal 65.1% success rate (dev=1.73). The second was 111 successes of 233 attempts, a 47.6% success rate (dev=-1.06). Perhaps you can tell us what the times of day were or if you were doing anything different when making those attempts?

    (The 47.6% success rate falls outside my calculated 95% confidence interval because our +1 and +2 data shows an average success rate about 3% higher than Warren's chart. 53.1% +/- 1.9% vs. 50%, and 33.4% +/- 2.5% vs. 30%. The deviation of our average from the chart is greater than the 95% confidence interval, so there's good reason to believe there's something else going on. They're both biased high, which is why I suggested some hidden luck variable which adds a few % to your chance to succeed. The +3, +4, and +5 data sets were too small to reliably detect a 3% deviation from the chart values.)
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