Refining for cheap

Deceptistar - Sanctuary

as much as i like this thread and is helpful i bet the mods and GMs are looking at it like:

>_____>;; wow graphs...

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

The other two are both your data sets, Warren. Both of them +1 refines. The first was 56 success of 82 attempts, a rather phenomenal 65.1% success rate (dev=1.73).

Oops, I copied it from my notes incorrectly and wrote "56/86". The actual results were 52/86 (60.5%). You can tell I messed it up because there's only 52 attempts listed at +2. b:surrender

Still, that is pretty high, but I don't really remember any details. It was probably done some time in the evening, and I made sure absolutely nobody was around (which wasn't hard to do in Sandsong Village). But even with that 60.5% success at +1, the miserable 18.8% at +3 canceled it out.

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

The second was 111 successes of 233 attempts, a 47.6% success rate (dev=-1.06).

Double oops, but this time it was you making the copying error. I posted that I got 115/233 (49.5%), not 111/233. b:chuckle

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

The deviation of our average from the chart is greater than the 95% confidence interval, so there's good reason to believe there's something else going on.

It's certainly possible that the values have been increased slightly during one of the patches, although I would have thought they'd have notified people if they did. Something like 2.5% or 3.5% would be a reasonable boost.

I haven't been keeping exact step-by-step records on my most recent refining, but so far my average final cost-per-refine has been lower than what my spreadsheet predicts.

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary

Well, after reading through the thread a lot and dabbling in refines, I decided to take 200 mirages spare from farming TT's and the free tideborn tienkangs and tiesha's and apply them to my lv90 set.

First results were:
Calloused Lionheart hatchets +0-+5
Demon Slaughter Belt 0-+3
Misty Forest Ring 0-+3
Misty Forest Ring 0-+3
Cape of Tauran Chieftan 0-+3
Swindlers Necklace 0-+3

All tiesha's went on hatchets. Did hit +6 at one point but gambled that away lol. Tienkangs were used at +2-3 and failed alot. Tieshas above +3 and favorable results. Missed quite a few here but from what I recorded..
+1 (55/120)
+2 (12/30)
+3 (5/14)
+4 (2/2)
+5 (2/4)
+6 (1/2)

I'm going on now to attempt further refines with tiesha's on my tt90 (which is already +3-5), wish me luck. o.o Will report back results afterwards.

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary

Headache.

Less QQ from me. Just needless to say tiesha's suck and there is no "average odds". 100 tieshas, 26 worked.

(All in all, I'd thoroughly advise going to +2 with mirages, and orbs from there on, unless you're a heavy gambler)

razorback08

+0 > +1 = 2 mirage stones
+1 > +2 = 2 star orb
+2 > +3 = 3 star orb
+3 > +4 = 4 star orb

etc

You get the point. You arent gonna refine to +10 without them so why even discuss..Unless you the lucky ******* that got +11 to +12 with 1 Tisha stone

Sure you might be able to get +4 (+5 if extremely lucky) with mirage stones only but in the end it will work out cheaper to use dragon orbs

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary

razorback08 wrote: »

+0 > +1 = 2 mirage stones
+1 > +2 = 2 star orb
+2 > +3 = 3 star orb
+3 > +4 = 4 star orb

etc

You get the point. You arent gonna refine to +10 without them so why even discuss..Unless you the lucky ******* that got +11 to +12 with 1 Tisha stone

Sure you might be able to get +4 (+5 if extremely lucky) with mirage stones only but in the end it will work out cheaper to use dragon orbs

Hmm, +1-+2 is nearly always cheaper with orbs. And +3 is in the majority of cases. But from what I see tiesha's have a 30% ish success rate, so you basically end up depending on luck to pull you through. 2/3 will fail, when you need a 1 in 2 and occasional 2/2 rate to progress.

I've heard a lot of horror stories and todays $50 cash burn for nothing after actually earlier reaching +6 with freebies meant it was my turn. But you learn from it. The refine success rates on +4 and higher have been a little skeptical so far so I'm beginning to think it does lower a lot as you go up.

No matter how accurate statistics are, it'll always be a gamble.

Solandri - Heavens Tear

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Oops, I copied it from my notes incorrectly and wrote "56/86". The actual results were 52/86 (60.5%). You can tell I messed it up because there's only 52 attempts listed at +2. b:surrender

That reduces the deviation to +1.04, which is close enough to the 95% c.i. to probably just be another fluke.

Double oops, but this time it was you making the copying error. I posted that I got 115/233 (49.5%), not 111/233. b:chuckle

Oops, that drops the deviation to -0.72, putting it well within the 95% c.i.

razorback08 wrote: »

Sure you might be able to get +4 (+5 if extremely lucky) with mirage stones only but in the end it will work out cheaper to use dragon orbs

Actually, if you follow the recommended mirage -> tienkang -> tisha -> orb procedure, by the time you hit +5 you'll have saved 4.5 mil on average. At +6 the savings is over 10 mil. And by +8 (when you should switch to orbs) you will have saved an average of 31 million compared to using straight dragon orbs.

The primary disadvantage is the variability in individual results - the luck factor. It could very well cost you more doing this for a single piece of equipment than if you had used orbs. However, if you figure you're going to refine all your armor, weapons, and most of your ornaments, that large pool will mitigate the variability, and greatly increase the odds of your overall expenditure being near the expected average. Just like the more often you flip a coin, the closer the total of the outcomes gets to 50/50.

The other disadvantage is the time it takes.

XxxFairyxxX - Dreamweaver

I tried to refine armor with a socket and mirage stone the items wont go in to boxes to be refined. Any thoughts as to why it doesn't work

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

The primary disadvantage is the variability in individual results - the luck factor. It could very well cost you more doing this for a single piece of equipment than if you had used orbs. However, if you figure you're going to refine all your armor, weapons, and most of your ornaments, that large pool will mitigate the variability, and greatly increase the odds of your overall expenditure being near the expected average. Just like the more often you flip a coin, the closer the total of the outcomes gets to 50/50.

I'd love to know what the odds are on failing every tiesha from two +5 gears all the way to 0, then burning nearly $50 (165 tiesha's+mirages) without ever reaching +5 again. =/

XxxFairyxxX - Dreamweaver wrote: »

I tried to refine armor with a socket and mirage stone the items wont go in to boxes to be refined. Any thoughts as to why it doesn't work

Mirages don't go in the boxes. Just the gear in the top one, other box is for dragon orbs and tieshas. Mirages are automatically used from your inventory.

Solandri - Heavens Tear

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary wrote: »

I'd love to know what the odds are on failing every tiesha from two +5 gears all the way to 0

0.8%

then burning nearly $50 (165 tiesha's+mirages) without ever reaching +5 again. =/

28.6%

You're not supposed to spend money on tieshas until about +6 anyway (though I would start at +4 or +5 just so you don't go insane clicking over and over). Cost-wise, a failed mirage attempt is only about 15k, while a failed tisha attempt is around 125k.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

though I would start at +4 or +5 just so you don't go insane clicking over and over

There should definitely be some sort of, "THIS WILL DRIVE YOU INSANE!" clause attached to this thread. b:faint

I hate going from +1 to +3 using Mirages, because with just 30% success a string of failures (which happens often) can become tiring rather fast.

I'm ok with +4 and +5, because Tienkangs have a reasonable 45% success rate.

That's a major reason I haven't tried higher than +5 yet, because I dread the Tisha's 33.5%. Even if the odds are correct, the models still predict a whole huge ton of failures. The only way it works at all is that you just have to keep waiting for this to be the time you get lucky.

But if you can manage to stay sane and resist the temptation to start using the wrong stones (like Tienkangs at +1 or something) to try to alleviate the seemingly endless failures, then it does work out much cheaper on average.

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

This thread is definitely deserving of a bump. Besides, I referenced someone to this thread just before maint

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Well, I finally got around to refining a completely new set of gear and thought I'd post the results.

I refined 5 pieces of green Frostcovered City armour (chest, legs, boots, wristguards and necklace) up to +5, since +5 gives roughly the same cost/benefit as Immaculate Citrine shards.

The final cost was 1095 Mirages and 39 Tienkangs. I paid 15k each for the Mirages and at about 350k Gold the Tienkangs were about 96k eack, for a total of ~20.2 million.

That works out to about 4 million per +5. If I'd used Dragon Orbs on sale for 30% off, it would have cost 6.8 million per +5.

All of this was done at the Archo Elder.

Psychologically, the whole process can be very frustrating. There are huge stretches of incredible bad luck, frequent "Fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, fail..." patches that seem to defy the odds, annoying "OMG! I can't believe I just went from 0 to +4 three times in a row, only to have it fail +5 each time! Somebody must be messing with me!" incidents that made me start to wonder about my faith in our research, etc..., etc..., etc...

But in the end, I came out only about 14% above the projected average cost of 3.5 million per item, and still saved around 40% versus a Dragon Orb sale.

Next time I'll be refining my gear to +7 or higher, but that won't be for a long time.

Paramedic - Dreamweaver

simple

and no magic/myths involved b:surrender

Sirrobert - Dreamweaver

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Well, I finally got around to refining a completely new set of gear and thought I'd post the results.

I refined 5 pieces of green Frostcovered City armour (chest, legs, boots, wristguards and necklace) up to +5, since +5 gives roughly the same cost/benefit as Immaculate Citrine shards.

The final cost was 1095 Mirages and 39 Tienkangs. I paid 15k each for the Mirages and at about 350k Gold the Tienkangs were about 96k eack, for a total of ~20.2 million.

That works out to about 4 million per +5. If I'd used Dragon Orbs on sale for 30% off, it would have cost 6.8 million per +5.

All of this was done at the Archo Elder.

Psychologically, the whole process can be very frustrating. There are huge stretches of incredible bad luck, frequent "Fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, fail..." patches that seem to defy the odds, annoying "OMG! I can't believe I just went from 0 to +4 three times in a row, only to have it fail +5 each time! Somebody must be messing with me!" incidents that made me start to wonder about my faith in our research, etc..., etc..., etc...

But in the end, I came out only about 14% above the projected average cost of 3.5 million per item, and still saved around 40% versus a Dragon Orb sale.

Next time I'll be refining my gear to +7 or higher, but that won't be for a long time.

YOu just nailed it. It's worth alot to not have to be frustrated with 5 times losing your refines at +4 in a row b:sad

Now if someone would care to explain that spreadsheet to me, I could maybe try this myselfb:surrender

AlbireoTwo - Lost City

So, according to this, it will cost me 5.6 mil to make my calamities +5. On the other hand, I could just buy them from AH for 4 mil or lower.................

Sirrobert - Dreamweaver

AlbireoTwo - Lost City wrote: »

So, according to this, it will cost me 5.6 mil to make my calamities +5. On the other hand, I could just buy them from AH for 4 mil or lower.................

Yea, buying a pre refined thing is almost always cheaper than refining it yourself

TheDan - Sanctuary

I've +6/+5ed all my gear using mirages / tienkang / tishas lol. (only using the Ancient Wall Officer) So much cheaper than using dragon orbs if you know what you're doing :P

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Sirrobert - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Now if someone would care to explain that spreadsheet to me, I could maybe try this myselfb:surrender

Not much to explain. You put in your costs for the different items in the blue field (price of orbs, price of tisha/tienkang, gold price, and price of mirages).

The green field tells you your cheapest strategy for refining that particular +. e.g. for refining to +1 the best choice is almost always straight mirages. For refining to +12 the best choice is almost always dragon orbs. The number on the right in green tells you how much coin (cumulative) successfully refining to that level will cost you on average.

The yellow field tells you how much on average you will save (again, cumulative) following the strategy in green vs. if you used dragon orbs for every refine.

KohakuNushi - Lost City

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Not much to explain. You put in your costs for the different items in the blue field (price of orbs, price of tisha/tienkang, gold price, and price of mirages).

The green field tells you your cheapest strategy for refining that particular +. e.g. for refining to +1 the best choice is almost always straight mirages. For refining to +12 the best choice is almost always dragon orbs. The number on the right in green tells you how much coin (cumulative) successfully refining to that level will cost you on average.

The yellow field tells you how much on average you will save (again, cumulative) following the strategy in green vs. if you used dragon orbs for every refine.

thx... i get it now

UesugiHiroki - Lost City

Demans - Lost City wrote: »

u do reilze the fourtune stone IS A 1 STAR D ORB right? look at the succes rates, 100% to +1 (1 star orb), 25% to succed at +2 (takes 4 1 stars to make 1 2* that has 100%, 100%/4 1* orbs = 25% ea), 10% chacne for +3 (takes 10 1* orbs to make 1 3* orb =100%, 100%/ 10 1* orbs = 10% ea), etc, and acoordin to pwdatabase, 10 pack = 4 gold 50 silver while d orb 10 pack = 2 gold 70 silver meanin on acverage, d orb r MUCH cheaper


reads:


omg...i think i just came, tyvm for the info 0_o

me too! b:dirtyb:dirtyb:dirty

Bosk - Sanctuary

Great thread, I really learned a lot. Especially, it made me reread what the Elder says and discover that there is NOT a personal Refining Level that improves if you are successful (yeah, kind of read that wrong). Of course, if there was, it might have explained some of the variances observed in the numbers.

I wonder though, have any of you been to this site: http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Refining ?

It is referenced from the main Perfect World International Home Page (http://pwi.perfectworld.com/, hover mouse over GAME INFO and click on PWI Wiki, then click on Refining under Amour/Weapons).

There is a table in there that appears to be the same as the table referred to earlier in this thread (I did not compare all the values) and it has Tienkang and Tisha stones added to the table (basically they increase the probability of success). Tisha stones limit a failure to a drop of 1 level of refinement but only add 3.5% to the overall odds of success. Tienkang stones add 15% to the probability of success, but apparently do NOT prevent the item from dropping back to 0 if the refine fails.

It also appears to have many of the Duke Blake rumors and evidence to debunk them.

If this URL has been referred to previously, my apologies for reposting it.


I am relatively new to refining. I have refined some armor, getting one piece to +2, a few to +1 and one stubborn piece (3 Star Shadow Walker Cape) would not get to +1 even after around 10 tries. (I used 17 Mirages to get one +2, four +1s and one +0, not that that is helpful, as I did not keep track of the steps.) I have also added +1 to a friend's Legendary weapons, but that occurred on the first try.


Another thing about that Cape: Prior to purchasing it in the AH, I crafted dozens of these capes never getting anything better than 2 stars. Furthermore, for weeks (if not months) I could not find a 3 star cape in the AH or any Cat shops. When I finally did find it and tried to refine it to +1, every attempt failed (I tired at least 8 times and possibly 10). All of this made me think that 3 star Shadow Walker Capes might just be RESISTANT to being crafted and refined. Like there is a special case or exception to the rules. Unfortunately, one sample such as this is not enough evidence to bear that out.



So, a few questions from a relative newbie:

From what I can see, there can only be one aid stone applied at a time to help with the refinement of an item:
- a Tisha Stone
- a Tienkang Stone or
- a Dragon Orb.

Is this correct? Or can the stones be stacked somehow?


Also, if a Dragon Orb is used, do you still need the Mirage Celestone(s) (one or two)? Or is only the Dragon Orb required?


Thanks again for all the insight and details.

Good Luck!

Mayfly - Dreamweaver

Bosk - Sanctuary wrote: »

So, a few questions from a relative newbie:

From what I can see, there can only be one aid stone applied at a time to help with the refinement of an item:
- a Tisha Stone
- a Tienkang Stone or
- a Dragon Orb.

Is this correct? Or can the stones be stacked somehow?

Correct.

Also, if a Dragon Orb is used, do you still need the Mirage Celestone(s) (one or two)? Or is only the Dragon Orb required?

You need the mirages as well as the tisha stones/tienkang stones/dragon orbs, if any.

Clayne - Lost City

Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »

True. Yesterday I lost hundred mirages I cannot get more than +3.

I will never try to refine using 20 mirages++ at once. If I keep failing aftr 20 Ill stop b:chuckle scared b:surrender

BrocktheMace - Dreamweaver wrote: »

1) If first refining of the day fails, wait until a new day to try again. Otherwise, keep going.

I guess most people will not stop immediately after the 1st refining fails right O.o

boo4u wrote: »

plz lock this thread..its giving me a headache...jsut buy the stinkin orbs for christsakes.,.....THEY ON SALE

b:shutup yeah this thread is like a 3-month thread n with so many calculation,, but it helps b:thanks
dont close it tho :P

n Lol If u guys can actually find the 99% proven tips of time place who and how to refine successfully to 10 or so, no1 going to buy orb n pwi gonna be QQ ing lol

Sirrobert - Dreamweaver

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Not much to explain. You put in your costs for the different items in the blue field (price of orbs, price of tisha/tienkang, gold price, and price of mirages).

The green field tells you your cheapest strategy for refining that particular +. e.g. for refining to +1 the best choice is almost always straight mirages. For refining to +12 the best choice is almost always dragon orbs. The number on the right in green tells you how much coin (cumulative) successfully refining to that level will cost you on average.

The yellow field tells you how much on average you will save (again, cumulative) following the strategy in green vs. if you used dragon orbs for every refine.

Hmm, the costs of all boutique refine aids says 0.27. What does that mean?

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Sirrobert - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Hmm, the costs of all boutique refine aids says 0.27. What does that mean?

0.27 gold. The 10-packs sell for 2.7 gold, which works out to 0.27 gold per stone/orb.

KageYingZi - Heavens Tear

Miss_Tika - Lost City wrote: »

I refined +0 --> +7 with only 9 mirages and no dragon orbs b:cute

Lies till there's pictorial evidence of the above happening.

KageYingZi - Heavens Tear

i spent 100 mirages on a Wind and the Clouds and it nvr got past +3 from +0.Ended up with +1 in the end.

Mayb a better idea would be to:Buying refined gear that u dont need cheap and use the Refinement Transfer service?Dont know if that part of the game works.I found some cheap +3 going under 500k in AH with some nice gems on them so mayb moving the refinement to your later gear might work(that is if they can be).

Sirrobert - Dreamweaver

Alexenokin - Lost City wrote: »

good info here, but still a necro



NECRO

Go spam somewhere else, this is the kind of thread that should remain active forever (or get a sticky, maybe in the crafting forum?)

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Alexenokin - Lost City wrote: »

good info here, but still a necro

Posting in threads which are inactive for 2 days is now considered necroing? Or did you just look at the date of the OP and assume nothing happened between December and today?

This thread was an ongoing community research project, with people posting their experiences over many weeks so we could get enough data for some firm conclusions. I don't think it's been inactive for more than a 1-week stretch since it began. The conclusions are pretty well established now, but many of us monitor the thread to answer questions people may have.