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Refining for cheap

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  • Deceptistar - SanctuaryDeceptistar - Sanctuary Posts: 10,454 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    as much as i like this thread and is helpful i bet the mods and GMs are looking at it like:

    >_____>;; wow graphs...
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  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    The other two are both your data sets, Warren. Both of them +1 refines. The first was 56 success of 82 attempts, a rather phenomenal 65.1% success rate (dev=1.73).
    Oops, I copied it from my notes incorrectly and wrote "56/86". The actual results were 52/86 (60.5%). You can tell I messed it up because there's only 52 attempts listed at +2. b:surrender

    Still, that is pretty high, but I don't really remember any details. It was probably done some time in the evening, and I made sure absolutely nobody was around (which wasn't hard to do in Sandsong Village). But even with that 60.5% success at +1, the miserable 18.8% at +3 canceled it out.
    The second was 111 successes of 233 attempts, a 47.6% success rate (dev=-1.06).
    Double oops, but this time it was you making the copying error. I posted that I got 115/233 (49.5%), not 111/233. b:chuckle
    The deviation of our average from the chart is greater than the 95% confidence interval, so there's good reason to believe there's something else going on.
    It's certainly possible that the values have been increased slightly during one of the patches, although I would have thought they'd have notified people if they did. Something like 2.5% or 3.5% would be a reasonable boost.

    I haven't been keeping exact step-by-step records on my most recent refining, but so far my average final cost-per-refine has been lower than what my spreadsheet predicts.
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  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Well, after reading through the thread a lot and dabbling in refines, I decided to take 200 mirages spare from farming TT's and the free tideborn tienkangs and tiesha's and apply them to my lv90 set.

    First results were:
    Calloused Lionheart hatchets +0-+5
    Demon Slaughter Belt 0-+3
    Misty Forest Ring 0-+3
    Misty Forest Ring 0-+3
    Cape of Tauran Chieftan 0-+3
    Swindlers Necklace 0-+3

    All tiesha's went on hatchets. Did hit +6 at one point but gambled that away lol. Tienkangs were used at +2-3 and failed alot. Tieshas above +3 and favorable results. Missed quite a few here but from what I recorded..
    +1 (55/120)
    +2 (12/30)
    +3 (5/14)
    +4 (2/2)
    +5 (2/4)
    +6 (1/2)

    I'm going on now to attempt further refines with tiesha's on my tt90 (which is already +3-5), wish me luck. o.o Will report back results afterwards.
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Headache.

    Less QQ from me. Just needless to say tiesha's suck and there is no "average odds". 100 tieshas, 26 worked.

    (All in all, I'd thoroughly advise going to +2 with mirages, and orbs from there on, unless you're a heavy gambler)
  • razorback08razorback08 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    +0 > +1 = 2 mirage stones
    +1 > +2 = 2 star orb
    +2 > +3 = 3 star orb
    +3 > +4 = 4 star orb

    etc

    You get the point. You arent gonna refine to +10 without them so why even discuss..Unless you the lucky ******* that got +11 to +12 with 1 Tisha stone

    Sure you might be able to get +4 (+5 if extremely lucky) with mirage stones only but in the end it will work out cheaper to use dragon orbs
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    +0 > +1 = 2 mirage stones
    +1 > +2 = 2 star orb
    +2 > +3 = 3 star orb
    +3 > +4 = 4 star orb

    etc

    You get the point. You arent gonna refine to +10 without them so why even discuss..Unless you the lucky ******* that got +11 to +12 with 1 Tisha stone

    Sure you might be able to get +4 (+5 if extremely lucky) with mirage stones only but in the end it will work out cheaper to use dragon orbs

    Hmm, +1-+2 is nearly always cheaper with orbs. And +3 is in the majority of cases. But from what I see tiesha's have a 30% ish success rate, so you basically end up depending on luck to pull you through. 2/3 will fail, when you need a 1 in 2 and occasional 2/2 rate to progress.

    I've heard a lot of horror stories and todays $50 cash burn for nothing after actually earlier reaching +6 with freebies meant it was my turn. But you learn from it. The refine success rates on +4 and higher have been a little skeptical so far so I'm beginning to think it does lower a lot as you go up.

    No matter how accurate statistics are, it'll always be a gamble.
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Oops, I copied it from my notes incorrectly and wrote "56/86". The actual results were 52/86 (60.5%). You can tell I messed it up because there's only 52 attempts listed at +2. b:surrender
    That reduces the deviation to +1.04, which is close enough to the 95% c.i. to probably just be another fluke.
    Double oops, but this time it was you making the copying error. I posted that I got 115/233 (49.5%), not 111/233. b:chuckle
    Oops, that drops the deviation to -0.72, putting it well within the 95% c.i.
    Sure you might be able to get +4 (+5 if extremely lucky) with mirage stones only but in the end it will work out cheaper to use dragon orbs
    Actually, if you follow the recommended mirage -> tienkang -> tisha -> orb procedure, by the time you hit +5 you'll have saved 4.5 mil on average. At +6 the savings is over 10 mil. And by +8 (when you should switch to orbs) you will have saved an average of 31 million compared to using straight dragon orbs.

    The primary disadvantage is the variability in individual results - the luck factor. It could very well cost you more doing this for a single piece of equipment than if you had used orbs. However, if you figure you're going to refine all your armor, weapons, and most of your ornaments, that large pool will mitigate the variability, and greatly increase the odds of your overall expenditure being near the expected average. Just like the more often you flip a coin, the closer the total of the outcomes gets to 50/50.

    The other disadvantage is the time it takes.
  • XxxFairyxxX - DreamweaverXxxFairyxxX - Dreamweaver Posts: 12 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I tried to refine armor with a socket and mirage stone the items wont go in to boxes to be refined. Any thoughts as to why it doesn't work
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    The primary disadvantage is the variability in individual results - the luck factor. It could very well cost you more doing this for a single piece of equipment than if you had used orbs. However, if you figure you're going to refine all your armor, weapons, and most of your ornaments, that large pool will mitigate the variability, and greatly increase the odds of your overall expenditure being near the expected average. Just like the more often you flip a coin, the closer the total of the outcomes gets to 50/50.

    I'd love to know what the odds are on failing every tiesha from two +5 gears all the way to 0, then burning nearly $50 (165 tiesha's+mirages) without ever reaching +5 again. =/
    I tried to refine armor with a socket and mirage stone the items wont go in to boxes to be refined. Any thoughts as to why it doesn't work

    Mirages don't go in the boxes. Just the gear in the top one, other box is for dragon orbs and tieshas. Mirages are automatically used from your inventory.
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I'd love to know what the odds are on failing every tiesha from two +5 gears all the way to 0
    0.8%
    then burning nearly $50 (165 tiesha's+mirages) without ever reaching +5 again. =/
    28.6%

    You're not supposed to spend money on tieshas until about +6 anyway (though I would start at +4 or +5 just so you don't go insane clicking over and over). Cost-wise, a failed mirage attempt is only about 15k, while a failed tisha attempt is around 125k.
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    though I would start at +4 or +5 just so you don't go insane clicking over and over
    There should definitely be some sort of, "THIS WILL DRIVE YOU INSANE!" clause attached to this thread. b:faint

    I hate going from +1 to +3 using Mirages, because with just 30% success a string of failures (which happens often) can become tiring rather fast.

    I'm ok with +4 and +5, because Tienkangs have a reasonable 45% success rate.

    That's a major reason I haven't tried higher than +5 yet, because I dread the Tisha's 33.5%. Even if the odds are correct, the models still predict a whole huge ton of failures. The only way it works at all is that you just have to keep waiting for this to be the time you get lucky.

    But if you can manage to stay sane and resist the temptation to start using the wrong stones (like Tienkangs at +1 or something) to try to alleviate the seemingly endless failures, then it does work out much cheaper on average.
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  • DeathBanana - Heavens TearDeathBanana - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,674 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    This thread is definitely deserving of a bump. Besides, I referenced someone to this thread just before maint
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  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Well, I finally got around to refining a completely new set of gear and thought I'd post the results.

    I refined 5 pieces of green Frostcovered City armour (chest, legs, boots, wristguards and necklace) up to +5, since +5 gives roughly the same cost/benefit as Immaculate Citrine shards.

    The final cost was 1095 Mirages and 39 Tienkangs. I paid 15k each for the Mirages and at about 350k Gold the Tienkangs were about 96k eack, for a total of ~20.2 million.

    That works out to about 4 million per +5. If I'd used Dragon Orbs on sale for 30% off, it would have cost 6.8 million per +5.

    All of this was done at the Archo Elder.

    Psychologically, the whole process can be very frustrating. There are huge stretches of incredible bad luck, frequent "Fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, fail..." patches that seem to defy the odds, annoying "OMG! I can't believe I just went from 0 to +4 three times in a row, only to have it fail +5 each time! Somebody must be messing with me!" incidents that made me start to wonder about my faith in our research, etc..., etc..., etc...

    But in the end, I came out only about 14% above the projected average cost of 3.5 million per item, and still saved around 40% versus a Dragon Orb sale.

    Next time I'll be refining my gear to +7 or higher, but that won't be for a long time.
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  • Paramedic - DreamweaverParamedic - Dreamweaver Posts: 1,801 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    simple

    and no magic/myths involved b:surrender
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  • Sirrobert - DreamweaverSirrobert - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,395 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Well, I finally got around to refining a completely new set of gear and thought I'd post the results.

    I refined 5 pieces of green Frostcovered City armour (chest, legs, boots, wristguards and necklace) up to +5, since +5 gives roughly the same cost/benefit as Immaculate Citrine shards.

    The final cost was 1095 Mirages and 39 Tienkangs. I paid 15k each for the Mirages and at about 350k Gold the Tienkangs were about 96k eack, for a total of ~20.2 million.

    That works out to about 4 million per +5. If I'd used Dragon Orbs on sale for 30% off, it would have cost 6.8 million per +5.

    All of this was done at the Archo Elder.

    Psychologically, the whole process can be very frustrating. There are huge stretches of incredible bad luck, frequent "Fail, fail, fail, fail, fail, fail..." patches that seem to defy the odds, annoying "OMG! I can't believe I just went from 0 to +4 three times in a row, only to have it fail +5 each time! Somebody must be messing with me!" incidents that made me start to wonder about my faith in our research, etc..., etc..., etc...

    But in the end, I came out only about 14% above the projected average cost of 3.5 million per item, and still saved around 40% versus a Dragon Orb sale.

    Next time I'll be refining my gear to +7 or higher, but that won't be for a long time.

    YOu just nailed it. It's worth alot to not have to be frustrated with 5 times losing your refines at +4 in a row b:sad

    Now if someone would care to explain that spreadsheet to me, I could maybe try this myselfb:surrender
    9 out of 10 voices in my head say I'm not crazy... the 10th is singing the music of tetris
  • AlbireoTwo - Lost CityAlbireoTwo - Lost City Posts: 2,056 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    So, according to this, it will cost me 5.6 mil to make my calamities +5. On the other hand, I could just buy them from AH for 4 mil or lower.................
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    Thank you Forsakenx for the picture. b:thanks
  • Sirrobert - DreamweaverSirrobert - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,395 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    So, according to this, it will cost me 5.6 mil to make my calamities +5. On the other hand, I could just buy them from AH for 4 mil or lower.................

    Yea, buying a pre refined thing is almost always cheaper than refining it yourself
    9 out of 10 voices in my head say I'm not crazy... the 10th is singing the music of tetris
  • TheDan - SanctuaryTheDan - Sanctuary Posts: 3,495 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I've +6/+5ed all my gear using mirages / tienkang / tishas lol. (only using the Ancient Wall Officer) So much cheaper than using dragon orbs if you know what you're doing :P
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  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Now if someone would care to explain that spreadsheet to me, I could maybe try this myselfb:surrender
    Not much to explain. You put in your costs for the different items in the blue field (price of orbs, price of tisha/tienkang, gold price, and price of mirages).

    The green field tells you your cheapest strategy for refining that particular +. e.g. for refining to +1 the best choice is almost always straight mirages. For refining to +12 the best choice is almost always dragon orbs. The number on the right in green tells you how much coin (cumulative) successfully refining to that level will cost you on average.

    The yellow field tells you how much on average you will save (again, cumulative) following the strategy in green vs. if you used dragon orbs for every refine.
  • KohakuNushi - Lost CityKohakuNushi - Lost City Posts: 56 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Not much to explain. You put in your costs for the different items in the blue field (price of orbs, price of tisha/tienkang, gold price, and price of mirages).

    The green field tells you your cheapest strategy for refining that particular +. e.g. for refining to +1 the best choice is almost always straight mirages. For refining to +12 the best choice is almost always dragon orbs. The number on the right in green tells you how much coin (cumulative) successfully refining to that level will cost you on average.

    The yellow field tells you how much on average you will save (again, cumulative) following the strategy in green vs. if you used dragon orbs for every refine.


    thx... i get it now
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  • UesugiHiroki - Lost CityUesugiHiroki - Lost City Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    u do reilze the fourtune stone IS A 1 STAR D ORB right? look at the succes rates, 100% to +1 (1 star orb), 25% to succed at +2 (takes 4 1 stars to make 1 2* that has 100%, 100%/4 1* orbs = 25% ea), 10% chacne for +3 (takes 10 1* orbs to make 1 3* orb =100%, 100%/ 10 1* orbs = 10% ea), etc, and acoordin to pwdatabase, 10 pack = 4 gold 50 silver while d orb 10 pack = 2 gold 70 silver meanin on acverage, d orb r MUCH cheaper


    reads:


    omg...i think i just came, tyvm for the info 0_o

    me too! b:dirtyb:dirtyb:dirty
  • Bosk - SanctuaryBosk - Sanctuary Posts: 160 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Great thread, I really learned a lot. Especially, it made me reread what the Elder says and discover that there is NOT a personal Refining Level that improves if you are successful (yeah, kind of read that wrong). Of course, if there was, it might have explained some of the variances observed in the numbers.

    I wonder though, have any of you been to this site: http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Refining ?

    It is referenced from the main Perfect World International Home Page (http://pwi.perfectworld.com/, hover mouse over GAME INFO and click on PWI Wiki, then click on Refining under Amour/Weapons).

    There is a table in there that appears to be the same as the table referred to earlier in this thread (I did not compare all the values) and it has Tienkang and Tisha stones added to the table (basically they increase the probability of success). Tisha stones limit a failure to a drop of 1 level of refinement but only add 3.5% to the overall odds of success. Tienkang stones add 15% to the probability of success, but apparently do NOT prevent the item from dropping back to 0 if the refine fails.

    It also appears to have many of the Duke Blake rumors and evidence to debunk them.

    If this URL has been referred to previously, my apologies for reposting it.


    I am relatively new to refining. I have refined some armor, getting one piece to +2, a few to +1 and one stubborn piece (3 Star Shadow Walker Cape) would not get to +1 even after around 10 tries. (I used 17 Mirages to get one +2, four +1s and one +0, not that that is helpful, as I did not keep track of the steps.) I have also added +1 to a friend's Legendary weapons, but that occurred on the first try.


    Another thing about that Cape: Prior to purchasing it in the AH, I crafted dozens of these capes never getting anything better than 2 stars. Furthermore, for weeks (if not months) I could not find a 3 star cape in the AH or any Cat shops. When I finally did find it and tried to refine it to +1, every attempt failed (I tired at least 8 times and possibly 10). All of this made me think that 3 star Shadow Walker Capes might just be RESISTANT to being crafted and refined. Like there is a special case or exception to the rules. Unfortunately, one sample such as this is not enough evidence to bear that out.



    So, a few questions from a relative newbie:

    From what I can see, there can only be one aid stone applied at a time to help with the refinement of an item:
    - a Tisha Stone
    - a Tienkang Stone or
    - a Dragon Orb.

    Is this correct? Or can the stones be stacked somehow?


    Also, if a Dragon Orb is used, do you still need the Mirage Celestone(s) (one or two)? Or is only the Dragon Orb required?


    Thanks again for all the insight and details.

    Good Luck!
    Dante: "Cute is a relative term."
  • Mayfly - DreamweaverMayfly - Dreamweaver Posts: 6,094 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    So, a few questions from a relative newbie:

    From what I can see, there can only be one aid stone applied at a time to help with the refinement of an item:
    - a Tisha Stone
    - a Tienkang Stone or
    - a Dragon Orb.

    Is this correct? Or can the stones be stacked somehow?

    Correct.
    Also, if a Dragon Orb is used, do you still need the Mirage Celestone(s) (one or two)? Or is only the Dragon Orb required?

    You need the mirages as well as the tisha stones/tienkang stones/dragon orbs, if any.
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  • Clayne - Lost CityClayne - Lost City Posts: 31 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    True. Yesterday I lost hundred mirages I cannot get more than +3.
    I will never try to refine using 20 mirages++ at once. If I keep failing aftr 20 Ill stop b:chuckle scared b:surrender
    1) If first refining of the day fails, wait until a new day to try again. Otherwise, keep going.
    I guess most people will not stop immediately after the 1st refining fails right O.o
    boo4u wrote: »
    plz lock this thread..its giving me a headache...jsut buy the stinkin orbs for christsakes.,.....THEY ON SALE

    b:shutup yeah this thread is like a 3-month thread n with so many calculation,, but it helps b:thanks
    dont close it tho :P

    n Lol If u guys can actually find the 99% proven tips of time place who and how to refine successfully to 10 or so, no1 going to buy orb n pwi gonna be QQ ing lol
  • Sirrobert - DreamweaverSirrobert - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,395 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Not much to explain. You put in your costs for the different items in the blue field (price of orbs, price of tisha/tienkang, gold price, and price of mirages).

    The green field tells you your cheapest strategy for refining that particular +. e.g. for refining to +1 the best choice is almost always straight mirages. For refining to +12 the best choice is almost always dragon orbs. The number on the right in green tells you how much coin (cumulative) successfully refining to that level will cost you on average.

    The yellow field tells you how much on average you will save (again, cumulative) following the strategy in green vs. if you used dragon orbs for every refine.

    Hmm, the costs of all boutique refine aids says 0.27. What does that mean?
    9 out of 10 voices in my head say I'm not crazy... the 10th is singing the music of tetris
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Hmm, the costs of all boutique refine aids says 0.27. What does that mean?
    0.27 gold. The 10-packs sell for 2.7 gold, which works out to 0.27 gold per stone/orb.
  • KageYingZi - Heavens TearKageYingZi - Heavens Tear Posts: 823 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I refined +0 --> +7 with only 9 mirages and no dragon orbs b:cute

    Lies till there's pictorial evidence of the above happening.
  • KageYingZi - Heavens TearKageYingZi - Heavens Tear Posts: 823 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    i spent 100 mirages on a Wind and the Clouds and it nvr got past +3 from +0.Ended up with +1 in the end.

    Mayb a better idea would be to:Buying refined gear that u dont need cheap and use the Refinement Transfer service?Dont know if that part of the game works.I found some cheap +3 going under 500k in AH with some nice gems on them so mayb moving the refinement to your later gear might work(that is if they can be).
  • Sirrobert - DreamweaverSirrobert - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,395 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    good info here, but still a necro



    NECRO

    Go spam somewhere else, this is the kind of thread that should remain active forever (or get a sticky, maybe in the crafting forum?)
    9 out of 10 voices in my head say I'm not crazy... the 10th is singing the music of tetris
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    good info here, but still a necro
    Posting in threads which are inactive for 2 days is now considered necroing? Or did you just look at the date of the OP and assume nothing happened between December and today?

    This thread was an ongoing community research project, with people posting their experiences over many weeks so we could get enough data for some firm conclusions. I don't think it's been inactive for more than a 1-week stretch since it began. The conclusions are pretty well established now, but many of us monitor the thread to answer questions people may have.
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