Go spam somewhere else, this is the kind of thread that should remain active forever (or get a sticky, maybe in the crafting forum?)

and **** you, wasnt meant as spam

I have officially "won the game"... Actually, I decided it was time to leave.
Joined sometime in March of 2009 - right after Dreamweaver opening.
Retired on March 16, 2010... 1 year later...

i want to tell everyone; dont do it the non-orb way, i wasted 35mil and ended up with +2/

And I use 10 mirages to get +3 then with tienkien stone to +5. This thread is about finding the best way and best probability for refining. It's not easy but with some rules we can get higher chance for successful refining.
P.S. I don't believe you that you spent 35M and you didn't get higher than +2. Or you were to greedy weren't you?

i want to tell everyone; dont do it the non-orb way, i wasted 35mil and ended up with +2/

That bites. How high were you going for? I can certainly see it happening if you're going for a high refine like +8.

Personally, I'm not comfortable with the level of risk involved in cases where I'm not planning to refine at least 4 or more items to my target level, hence why I haven't gone past +5 yet.

But even then there's risk involved. For example, I've just spent 9 million (so far) going for a single +5 and ended up with +0. But I can't be upset because I just recently got 5 items to +5 for an average of 4 million each, followed by an additional item to +5 for less than 1 million. Plus, there were 3 other items I got to +5 for an average of about 4 million a long time ago.

- EDIT -

So, I just logged in after cat-shopping for a day for more Mirages, went the the Archo Elder, and proceeded to +5 the item I'd already wasted 9 million on. In a rather pleasant change of luck, it took me exactly 5 Mirages and 2 Tienkangs to go from 0 to +5.

there are alot of diff tips that may or may not work, but overall using mirages and tisha/tienkang stones just takes alot of patience. Ive had the best success with tienkang stones although riskier, and seem to have better luck in the early morning or late at night when the server is less crowded, i spent ~30 mil on mirages and tienkang stones, managed to get all 4 ornaments to +5, 3 pieces of gear to +7 and the other 3 pieces of gear back to +5, and got my bow to +8, using officers of guild owned lands does seem to help on higher refines in my oppinion, but it still takes a good deal of patience and trial and error b:victory

And I use 10 mirages to get +3 then with tienkien stone to +5. This thread is about finding the best way and best probability for refining. It's not easy but with some rules we can get higher chance for successful refining.
P.S. I don't believe you that you spent 35M and you didn't get higher than +2. Or you were to greedy weren't you?

I'm pretty sure he means he ended up with the item at +2, not that +2 was the highest he got. I got my cape to +6 with about 40 mirages, 3 tienkangs, and 1 tisha. I was out of mirages so I stopped there. After I got more mirages, I tried to get it to +7. Failed 3 times with tishas dropping it to +3, and failed once with a tienkang dropping it to 0. A 16.5% chance of that occurring, but I ended up in that unlucky 16.5%. I've spent about 150 mirages, 10 tienkangs, and 3 tishas since then and haven't been able to get it beyond +4 yet. It's currently at +2.

That bites. How high were you going for? I can certainly see it happening if you're going for a high refine like +8.

Personally, I'm not comfortable with the level of risk involved in cases where I'm not planning to refine at least 4 or more items to my target level, hence why I haven't gone past +5 yet.

Yes. Unless you can pool your attempts over many items (like a complete level 99 equipment set) to mitigate the risk, I think the extra cost of the dragon orbs is probably worth eliminating the risk.

In the above example, I burned 6 of the tienkangs in +1 and +2 attempts when I accidentally forgot to remove them. So there is an additional cost associated with the mind-numbing process of clicking refine over and over. About 200 attempts seems to be the limit of my endurance before brain rot sets in. That corresponds with the odds to get to +5, so I'm probably going to use the cheap methods up to +5, and use d.orbs at +6 and higher.

Now, if they let you write a script to automate how your wished to refine (when to use tienkangs, tishas, and d.orbs), I could see a guild pooling their resources and using these methods to save a substantial amount of money refining 25-50 pieces of gear at a time.

I refined +0 --> +7 with only 9 mirages and no dragon orbs b:cute

You shoulda bought lottery tickets that day!
If I just try refining, it goes to level 1 ok, then if I try to level 2, it fails and resets to 0.
I tried 6 times and just kept going one step forward, one step back.

I've decided to refine from 0 > 1 without orbs, then use orbs to get +2 or higher.
Going backwards sucks.

So, I just logged in after cat-shopping for a day for more Mirages, went the the Archo Elder, and proceeded to +5 the item I'd already wasted 9 million on. In a rather pleasant change of luck, it took me exactly 5 Mirages and 2 Tienkangs to go from 0 to +5.

Guys, refining without mirages is pure luck. I refined 5 armour pices using only 260 mirages to +4, but to refine sward to +4, used neally 600. when you say chance is 40% remember, that it for every +1. Once you missed, you'll start from 0 And be carefull: ones you pop, you can't stop( lol

refining w/o dorbs is pure luck based.. iv refined 4 pieces of gear to +5 4 pieces +4 2 ornaments to +5 1 weap to +5 and 1 to +8 using a total of abt 900 odd mirages and about 80 tishas.. imo from what iv noticed... th refines follow a somewhat set pattern and relogging does help mitigate some risk.. for example i refined a lvl 12 FC weapon to +5 using abt 140 mirages.. then with 6 mirages and 3 tishas made it +8 >.> but th odds are better spread if u refine a bunch of items together for example i use this method..

1) refine evything to +2 with spams
2) relog try to +3 an item relog try to +3 an item agn till iv used up all th items avail..
(this method gives me abt a 60-70% success rate to get +3 considering 3 out of 4 items go +3)

3) try to +4 some items out of th set of +3's this gives me a 50:50ish chance cos sometimes i get 2 items outta 3 +4 and sometimes 1 outta 3 >.>

4)if i have 2 items +4 i use a tisha and try +5 agn a 50:50 chance 1 goes 1 dsnt..

lather rinse repeat with wots left..

again find a secluded elder and imo th earlier hours predawn server time (not game time) are th best 2 refine as thrs less server lag..

tienkangs suck imo cos iv never had any succes with em.. they failed +1 3 times cos i wanted to test them...

officers dont really matter much unless u want to spam to +3.. beyond +3 iv found elders to be more suitable..

duke black talks ****...

and th refines follow a kind of set pattern.. this is wot i learned wen i wanted 2 refine my weapon to +8.. it goes like this

1) success > fail > success > fail >success > fail
this works abt 3 times ina row i was goin fail succes fail success on + 1 and 2 items.. so i popped my +7 weap in and bammo +8..aftr th last faill..
tht it was pure luck tried a +1 fail... tried a +4 necky bang +5
this pattern lasts for abt 3 or 4 reps only..

2) fail>fail>fail >success..
this 1 is very risky cos it sometimes ends up with 4 fails ina row instd of 3 >.> but aftr th 3'rd fail ina row relog and u will refine smthing successfully..

in short 3 fails ina row and 1 relog gives u a 80% chance of refining smthing successfully on th 4'th try and th current lvl of refine dsnt matter ... thts wot iv noticed.. cos iv made weapons +5 with 10 mirages and no stones.. relogging does help a bit.. and try to MAKE SURE NOBODY IS NEAR THE ELDER.....

NOTE:.. if u ever fail 4 times ina row at any particular elder do NOT refine any more for the next few hours and definately not at tht elder again for the day.. cos well sometimes u get caught up.. my fail story was tht iv spent abt 800 mirages trying to +7 a frnds weapon and abt 60 tishas.. and i managed to get it +6 like 4 times but no +7 its currently unrefined =(((((

You all make it sound like there is some set universal table of chance for refinement. Higher grade equipment has a lower chance of refinement and the chance of success decreases exponentially as the refinement level increases. In other words, a Grade 1 merchant weapon will refine with a very large success rate in comparison to a Grade 13 CV weapon. There is no universally consistent table of chances to refine gear... if you're experience shows otherwise it's a matter of pure luck, which is what this entire game is based on in nearly all aspects...

You all make it sound like there is some set universal table of chance for refinement. Higher grade equipment has a lower chance of refinement and the chance of success decreases exponentially as the refinement level increases. In other words, a Grade 1 merchant weapon will refine with a very large success rate in comparison to a Grade 13 CV weapon. There is no universally consistent table of chances to refine gear... if you're experience shows otherwise it's a matter of pure luck, which is what this entire game is based on in nearly all aspects...

I also thought that, but have been told that testing showed it to not be true.

You all make it sound like there is some set universal table of chance for refinement. Higher grade equipment has a lower chance of refinement and the chance of success decreases exponentially as the refinement level increases. In other words, a Grade 1 merchant weapon will refine with a very large success rate in comparison to a Grade 13 CV weapon. There is no universally consistent table of chances to refine gear... if you're experience shows otherwise it's a matter of pure luck, which is what this entire game is based on in nearly all aspects...

Both are consistent with ~50% for +1, ~30% for +2 and +3. If there's a difference in success rate based on item grade, I'm not seeing it in my data.

Also, all the data sets posted in this thread (all 9 of them) were statistically consistent with the same fixed success rate, independent of level or item type. Only 4 of the 24 data subsets were outside the 95% confidence interval. Of those, 2 had sample sizes of 10 or fewer. The other two had sample sizes of 67 and 86, but were just barely outside the 95% c.i. Given 24 data subsets, you would expect 1 or 2 samples to be just outside the c.i.

If you wish to advocate the theory that refine success rate depends on item grade, I'm afraid you're going to have to provide data to prove it. The data we have so far does not support your theory.

Don't put much stock into the formulae below ... I just realized there is another factor that I did not account for. If I get some time I will redo them later.

From now until March 10, 1 Star Dragon Orbs are on for 33% less than the regular price and can be had for as little as 0.18 Gold (in a 10 Pack). At today's gold price on Sanctuary of about 350K, that means a single 1 star DO costs about 63K. At the same time, Mirage Stones still cost about 15K each.

Below are my comparative formulae for Dragon Orbs and Mirage Stones. I have not considered the value of using TienKang or Tisha stones. Soon I hope to create a simulation program to evaluate the various different methods to find the most cost effective solution to the question at hand (yeah, okay, so I add that to a pile of ideas like that ... expect it in about five years if I am still playing *smile*).

The basic formulae are these:
Mirage Only:Weapon: [Average Number of Tries] x 30K
Mirage Only:Non-weapon: [Average Number of Tries] x 15K
Mirage & Dragon Orbs:Weapon: [Refine Level] x 30K + [Number of 1* DOs] x 63K
Mirage & Dragon Orbs:Weapon: [Refine Level] x 15K + [Number of 1* DOs] x 63K

Over time, the difference between weapons and non-weapons for Dragon Orbs becomes rather insignificant, as the number of DOs becomes so large.

== Start Ignore ==
For an attempt to go from +0 to +1 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 1 success in 2 tries = 2)
- - Weapon: 2 x 30K = 60k
- - Non-weapon: 2 x 15K = 30k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star = 1)
- - Weapon: 30K + 1 x 63K = 93K
- - Non-weapon: 15K + 1 x 63K = 78K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +2 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 3 successes in 20 tries = 6.7)
- - Weapon: 6.7 x 30K = 200k
- - Non-weapon: 6.7 x 15K = 100k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star = 5 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 2 x 30K + 5 x 63K = 375K
- - Non-weapon: 2 x 15K + 5 x 63K = 345K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +3 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 9 successes in 200 tries = 22.2)
- - Weapon: 22.2 x 30K = 667k
- - Non-weapon: 22.2 x 15K = 333k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star = 15 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 3 x 30K + 15 x 63K = 1035K
- - Non-weapon: 3 x 15K + 15 x 63K = 990K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +4 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 27 successes in 2000 tries = 74.1)
- - Weapon: 74.1 x 30K = 2222k
- - Non-weapon: 74.1 x 15K = 1111k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star + 1 x 4 Star = 40 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 4 x 30K + 40 x 63K = 2640K
- - Non-weapon: 4 x 15K + 40 x 63K = 2580K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +5 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 81 successes in 20,000 tries = 246.9)
- - Weapon: 246.9 x 30K = 7407k
- - Non-weapon: 246.9 x 15K = 3703k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star + 1 x 4 Star + 1 x 5 Star = 100 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 5 x 30K + 100 x 63K = 6450K
- - Non-weapon: 5 x 15K + 100 x 63K = 6375K
== End Ignore ==

So it would appear, under these conditions at least, that the Dragon Orbs are cheaper for weapons after +4. With the above method continued, non-weapons should use Dragon Orbs after +6.

More interesting, however, is the Ocean Dragon Orb. This thing is CHEAP! Normally it would cost over 86.3 MILLION just to make one from the reduced 1 Star Dragon orbs (that is cheap in itself, as the normal price is 129.5 M). However, this week, it is on for only 26.3 M. That is about one FIFTH (just 20.2%) of the regular price, regardless of what gold costs. (Why do I feel all sticky now?)

And to everyone who can afford one and who goes out and buys one (or more) I have just one thing to say ....

Don't put much stock into the formulae below ... I just realized there is another factor that I did not account for. If I get some time I will redo them later.

From now until March 10, 1 Star Dragon Orbs are on for 33% less than the regular price and can be had for as little as 0.18 Gold (in a 10 Pack). At today's gold price on Sanctuary of about 350K, that means a single 1 star DO costs about 63K. At the same time, Mirage Stones still cost about 15K each.

Below are my comparative formulae for Dragon Orbs and Mirage Stones. I have not considered the value of using TienKang or Tisha stones. Soon I hope to create a simulation program to evaluate the various different methods to find the most cost effective solution to the question at hand (yeah, okay, so I add that to a pile of ideas like that ... expect it in about five years if I am still playing *smile*).

The basic formulae are these:
Mirage Only:Weapon: [Average Number of Tries] x 30K
Mirage Only:Non-weapon: [Average Number of Tries] x 15K
Mirage & Dragon Orbs:Weapon: [Refine Level] x 30K + [Number of 1* DOs] x 63K
Mirage & Dragon Orbs:Weapon: [Refine Level] x 15K + [Number of 1* DOs] x 63K

Over time, the difference between weapons and non-weapons for Dragon Orbs becomes rather insignificant, as the number of DOs becomes so large.

== Start Ignore ==
For an attempt to go from +0 to +1 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 1 success in 2 tries = 2)
- - Weapon: 2 x 30K = 60k
- - Non-weapon: 2 x 15K = 30k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star = 1)
- - Weapon: 30K + 1 x 63K = 93K
- - Non-weapon: 15K + 1 x 63K = 78K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +2 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 3 successes in 20 tries = 6.7)
- - Weapon: 6.7 x 30K = 200k
- - Non-weapon: 6.7 x 15K = 100k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star = 5 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 2 x 30K + 5 x 63K = 375K
- - Non-weapon: 2 x 15K + 5 x 63K = 345K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +3 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 9 successes in 200 tries = 22.2)
- - Weapon: 22.2 x 30K = 667k
- - Non-weapon: 22.2 x 15K = 333k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star = 15 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 3 x 30K + 15 x 63K = 1035K
- - Non-weapon: 3 x 15K + 15 x 63K = 990K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +4 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 27 successes in 2000 tries = 74.1)
- - Weapon: 74.1 x 30K = 2222k
- - Non-weapon: 74.1 x 15K = 1111k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star + 1 x 4 Star = 40 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 4 x 30K + 40 x 63K = 2640K
- - Non-weapon: 4 x 15K + 40 x 63K = 2580K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +5 it would cost:
- Mirage Stones Only (Average 81 successes in 20,000 tries = 246.9)
- - Weapon: 246.9 x 30K = 7407k
- - Non-weapon: 246.9 x 15K = 3703k
- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star + 1 x 4 Star + 1 x 5 Star = 100 x 1 Star)
- - Weapon: 5 x 30K + 100 x 63K = 6450K
- - Non-weapon: 5 x 15K + 100 x 63K = 6375K
== End Ignore ==

So it would appear, under these conditions at least, that the Dragon Orbs are cheaper for weapons after +4. With the above method continued, non-weapons should use Dragon Orbs after +6.

More interesting, however, is the Ocean Dragon Orb. This thing is CHEAP! Normally it would cost over 86.3 MILLION just to make one from the reduced 1 Star Dragon orbs (that is cheap in itself, as the normal price is 129.5 M). However, this week, it is on for only 26.3 M. That is about one FIFTH (just 20.2%) of the regular price, regardless of what gold costs. (Why do I feel all sticky now?)

And to everyone who can afford one and who goes out and buys one (or more) I have just one thing to say ....

- Choosing which stone is the most cost effective for each level of refine can be calculated by entering the current market price for Mirages, Gold, Stones, and Orbs into this spreadsheet: Zoho Sheet - Refining Guide

This link has spots for all the factors you could imagine. b:victory

Interestingly enough, if you put the current data in, the only change is that you should use a +10 orb at lvl 9. Everything other than that doesn't change, aside from the orb prices of course
EDIT: This is for armor, for weapons it recommends a +10 orb at lvl 8 too

You all make it sound like there is some set universal table of chance for refinement. Higher grade equipment has a lower chance of refinement and the chance of success decreases exponentially as the refinement level increases. In other words, a Grade 1 merchant weapon will refine with a very large success rate in comparison to a Grade 13 CV weapon. There is no universally consistent table of chances to refine gear... if you're experience shows otherwise it's a matter of pure luck, which is what this entire game is based on in nearly all aspects...

I've extensively tested exactly what you're talking about, and contrary to what you might expect it actually doesn't make any difference what grade you are refining.

A Grade 1 Stick has exactly a 50% chance of refining to +1, as does a Grade 5, Grade 10, Grade 12, Grade 13, etc... item.

And the chances do not decrease "exponentially" as the refinement increases. They go from 50% to 30%, then stay there until +8, at which point they decrease by 5% linearly.

I've tested this with multiple thousands of Mirages while keeping meticulous notes, as well as confirming it by directly examining the game data itself.

Below are my comparative formulae for Dragon Orbs and Mirage Stones. I have not considered the value of using TienKang or Tisha stones. Soon I hope to create a simulation program to evaluate the various different methods to find the most cost effective solution to the question at hand (yeah, okay, so I add that to a pile of ideas like that ... expect it in about five years if I am still playing *smile*).

You are definitely somebody who thinks like I do! b:victory

As DeathBanana pointed out, the links to the spreadsheets at the start of the thread are already exactly the kinds of programs you're describing. Here's a link to a modified version that contains prices from the current Dragon Orb sale (at Sanctuary Gold/Mirage prices): http://sheet.zoho.com/public/warren.forrest/dragon-orb-sale

For armour, Mirages-only are still best up to +3, then Tienkangs are the best option to get to +5, then Tishas to get to +8. At that point the average cost is going to be about 35.2 million, versus 54.7 million using on-sale Dragon Orbs. Then for +9 and up it's time to switch to Dragon Orbs.

Note that it's probably going to take a really, really long time to actually get up to +8, though, and there's no guarantee that you'll actually save money. The thing about refining without Dragon Orbs is that there's risk and it takes time, whereas using Dragon Orbs may cost roughly twice as much, but they're a sure-thing and they're quick.

sometimes i failed really bad at refining with mirages and tisha + tienkang and was far worser than the data. I want to refine only my weapon to +10 and there is a risk with that high lvl refine i want and d-orbs are cheap now and i could do it without risk to lose all money

sometimes i failed really bad at refining with mirages and tisha + tienkang and was far worser than the data. I want to refine only my weapon to +10 and there is a risk with that high lvl refine i want and d-orbs are cheap now and i could do it without risk to lose all money

"[my experience] was far worse than the data." Keep in mind that these are permutations of a binomial distribution (each attempt is either success or failure), so when someone says there's a 4.5% chance of success to refine to +3 with no refining aids (0.5 x 0.3 x 0.3), that's a point-estiamte on a binomial distribution (which looks like a Normal distribution it's narrower than a Normal and is discrete vice continuous). On "average" you have a 50% chance of burning 38 mirages to get to +3, but if you want say a 90% confidence of success then you need to be prepared to burn 85 mirages (and there's still a 10% chance you could fail burning that many)... The point-estimates for success aren't very meaningful and people using them are going to experience "far worse than the data" if they don't understand confidence intervals.

90% confidence = 1 - BINOMDIST(1 success, out of 85 trials, with a probability of 0.045, in a cumulative distribution TRUE)

We do very similar calculations to determine how many trials of a hardware component are needed to show that it's reliability before failure is X% (where the reliabilty is usually quite high and the confidence is also typicaly 95% or higher).

+0 to +1 using only Mirage Stones:
Expected Tries: 2
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 60,000 30,000

+0 to +2 using only Mirage Stones:
Expected Tries: 10
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 300,000 150,000

+0 to +3 using only Mirage Stones:
Expected Tries: 36.67
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 1,100,100 550,050

Estimated Cost of Dragon Orbs (on sale):

+0 to +1 using Dragon Orb 1 1
and Mirage Stones: 2 1
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 96,600 81,600

+0 to +2 using Dragon Orbs 5 5
and Mirage Stones: 4 2
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 393,000 363,000

+0 to +3 using Dragon Orbs 15 15
and Mirage Stones: 6 3
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 1,089,000 1,044,000

Estimated Cost of Dragon Orbs (regular price):

+0 to +1 using Dragon Orb 1 1
and Mirage Stones: 2 1
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 129,900 114,900

+0 to +2 using Dragon Orbs 5 5
and Mirage Stones: 4 2
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 559,500 529,500

+0 to +3 using Dragon Orbs 15 15
and Mirage Stones: 6 3
Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 1,588,500 1,543,500

More to come.

I wanted to get this out as it appears the on sale Dragon Orbs are a good deal even at the +3 lvl for weapons, and they are only on sale for a short time longer.

The simulator does not yet allow for the other stone types or for switching methods, but it should be obvious that if you want a weapon to become +3, take it to +2 first with Mirage Stones (average cost is 300K) and then use 10 Dragon Orbs to take it to +3 (cost 666K more for the Orbs and 30k more for the Mirage Stones). Total Expected Cost: 996K, which is considerably less than the 1,100K Expected Cost from Mirage Stones alone.

[This all assumes I have done the math correctly, of course.]

I will add more as I get more output from the simulator.

If you keep posting +3 is 15-20 mirages you've lost your mind. I'm not even going to explain it, but the only hint i'm giving is if you have percentages that ... depend on each other..... 20 mirages doesn't make any sense at all. You do the math to figure out why.

BladedZero - Sanctuary
"Also I don't think actually playing through the game helps your skill either."

-And we wonder why this game has gone to hell b:cute

If you keep posting +3 is 15-20 mirages you've lost your mind. I'm not even going to explain it, but the only hint i'm giving is if you have percentages that ... depend on each other..... 20 mirages doesn't make any sense at all. You do the math to figure out why.

If your goal is to get an item from unrefined to +3, your chances of achieving it with just mirages is:

The distribution looks something like a poisson process, so is asymmetric. That means the number most people are interested in - the average number of mirages - is not at the 50% mark. Unlike a normal gaussian distribution, the median, mean, and mode do not fall in the same place. So I don't think the average has the intuitive meaning most people are expecting.

In other words, the questions: "How many mirages will it usually take to get to +3?" and "How many mirages will it take to have a 50% chance to succeed at getting to +3?" have different answers.

In practical terms, I've gotten lucky a few times and gotten +3 with just 3 mirages. Usually I can get it within 20-50 mirages. And I had one cursed item where I blew 128 mirages and never got it to +3. b:cry

The distribution looks something like a poisson process, so is asymmetric. That means the number most people are interested in - the average number of mirages - is not at the 50% mark. Unlike a normal gaussian distribution, the median, mean, and mode do not fall in the same place. So I don't think the average has the intuitive meaning most people are expecting.

I've never refined, and I was curious, so I took my barbs plain white armor (nothing special about it, bought from a tailor) and refined it twice and got +2.

There are no changes in stats though. Does refining on effect magic items or what does it do?

I've never refined, and I was curious, so I took my barbs plain white armor (nothing special about it, bought from a tailor) and refined it twice and got +2.

There are no changes in stats though. Does refining on effect magic items or what does it do?

Thanks b:bye

You said you refined armor (not ornaments or a weapon) so at +2 it should have a +xx HP bonus on it now. The higher the refinement, the higher the HP bonus. You might want to check these two links...

## Comments

418Arc Usermeant that for another forum entirely <_<

and **** you, wasnt meant as spam

Joined sometime in March of 2009 - right after Dreamweaver opening.

Retired on March 16, 2010... 1 year later...

3,393Arc User35Arc User3,393Arc UserP.S. I don't believe you that you spent 35M and you didn't get higher than +2. Or you were to greedy weren't you?

42Arc User3,393Arc UserNope. You cannot.

1,686Arc UserPersonally, I'm not comfortable with the level of risk involved in cases where I'm not planning to refine at least 4 or more items to my target level, hence why I haven't gone past +5 yet.

But even then there's risk involved. For example, I've just spent 9 million (so far) going for a single +5 and ended up with +0. But I can't be upset because I just recently got 5 items to +5 for an average of 4 million each, followed by an additional item to +5 for less than 1 million. Plus, there were 3 other items I got to +5 for an average of about 4 million a long time ago.

- EDIT -

So, I just logged in after cat-shopping for a day for more Mirages, went the the Archo Elder, and proceeded to +5 the item I'd already wasted 9 million on. In a rather pleasant change of luck, it took me exactly 5 Mirages and 2 Tienkangs to go from 0 to +5.

PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com

71Arc User2,843Arc UserYes. Unless you can pool your attempts over many items (like a complete level 99 equipment set) to mitigate the risk, I think the extra cost of the dragon orbs is probably worth eliminating the risk.

In the above example, I burned 6 of the tienkangs in +1 and +2 attempts when I accidentally forgot to remove them. So there is an additional cost associated with the mind-numbing process of clicking refine over and over. About 200 attempts seems to be the limit of my endurance before brain rot sets in. That corresponds with the odds to get to +5, so I'm probably going to use the cheap methods up to +5, and use d.orbs at +6 and higher.

Now, if they let you write a script to automate how your wished to refine (when to use tienkangs, tishas, and d.orbs), I could see a guild pooling their resources and using these methods to save a substantial amount of money refining 25-50 pieces of gear at a time.

9Arc UserYou shoulda bought lottery tickets that day!

If I just try refining, it goes to level 1 ok, then if I try to level 2, it fails and resets to 0.

I tried 6 times and just kept going one step forward, one step back.

I've decided to refine from 0 > 1 without orbs, then use orbs to get +2 or higher.

Going backwards sucks.

2,674Arc UserOH DAMN b:shocked

9x Demon Cleric

1Arc User1Arc User1) refine evything to +2 with spams

2) relog try to +3 an item relog try to +3 an item agn till iv used up all th items avail..

(this method gives me abt a 60-70% success rate to get +3 considering 3 out of 4 items go +3)

3) try to +4 some items out of th set of +3's this gives me a 50:50ish chance cos sometimes i get 2 items outta 3 +4 and sometimes 1 outta 3 >.>

4)if i have 2 items +4 i use a tisha and try +5 agn a 50:50 chance 1 goes 1 dsnt..

lather rinse repeat with wots left..

again find a secluded elder and imo th earlier hours predawn server time (not game time) are th best 2 refine as thrs less server lag..

tienkangs suck imo cos iv never had any succes with em.. they failed +1 3 times cos i wanted to test them...

officers dont really matter much unless u want to spam to +3.. beyond +3 iv found elders to be more suitable..

duke black talks ****...

and th refines follow a kind of set pattern.. this is wot i learned wen i wanted 2 refine my weapon to +8.. it goes like this

1) success > fail > success > fail >success > fail

this works abt 3 times ina row i was goin fail succes fail success on + 1 and 2 items.. so i popped my +7 weap in and bammo +8..aftr th last faill..

tht it was pure luck tried a +1 fail... tried a +4 necky bang +5

this pattern lasts for abt 3 or 4 reps only..

2) fail>fail>fail >success..

this 1 is very risky cos it sometimes ends up with 4 fails ina row instd of 3 >.> but aftr th 3'rd fail ina row relog and u will refine smthing successfully..

in short 3 fails ina row and 1 relog gives u a 80% chance of refining smthing successfully on th 4'th try and th current lvl of refine dsnt matter ... thts wot iv noticed.. cos iv made weapons +5 with 10 mirages and no stones.. relogging does help a bit.. and try to MAKE SURE NOBODY IS NEAR THE ELDER.....

NOTE:.. if u ever fail 4 times ina row at any particular elder do NOT refine any more for the next few hours and definately not at tht elder again for the day.. cos well sometimes u get caught up.. my fail story was tht iv spent abt 800 mirages trying to +7 a frnds weapon and abt 60 tishas.. and i managed to get it +6 like 4 times but no +7 its currently unrefined =(((((

12Arc User4,125Arc UserI also thought that, but have been told that testing showed it to not be true.

I'd double check, but I ran out of mirages again.

2,843Arc UserGrade 9 ring:

+1: 38/68 (56% success rate)

+2: 12/38 (32% success rate)

+3: 4/12 (33% success rate)

Grade 12 cloak:

+1: 38/66 (58% success rate)

+2: 14/38 (36% success rate)

+3: 4/14 (29% success rate)

Both are consistent with ~50% for +1, ~30% for +2 and +3. If there's a difference in success rate based on item grade, I'm not seeing it in my data.

Also,

allthe data sets posted in this thread (all 9 of them) were statistically consistent with the same fixed success rate, independent of level or item type. Only 4 of the 24 data subsets were outside the 95% confidence interval. Of those, 2 had sample sizes of 10 or fewer. The other two had sample sizes of 67 and 86, but were justbarelyoutside the 95% c.i. Given 24 data subsets, you would expect 1 or 2 samples to be just outside the c.i.If you wish to advocate the theory that refine success rate depends on item grade, I'm afraid you're going to have to provide data to prove it. The data we have so far does not support your theory.

0Arc User160Arc UserFrom now until March 10, 1 Star Dragon Orbs are on for 33% less than the regular price and can be had for as little as 0.18 Gold (in a 10 Pack). At today's gold price on Sanctuary of about 350K, that means a single 1 star DO costs about 63K. At the same time, Mirage Stones still cost about 15K each.

Below are my comparative formulae for Dragon Orbs and Mirage Stones. I have not considered the value of using TienKang or Tisha stones. Soon I hope to create a simulation program to evaluate the various different methods to find the most cost effective solution to the question at hand (yeah, okay, so I add that to a pile of ideas like that ... expect it in about five years if I am still playing *smile*).

The basic formulae are these:

Mirage Only:Weapon: [Average Number of Tries] x 30K

Mirage Only:Non-weapon: [Average Number of Tries] x 15K

Mirage & Dragon Orbs:Weapon: [Refine Level] x 30K + [Number of 1* DOs] x 63K

Mirage & Dragon Orbs:Weapon: [Refine Level] x 15K + [Number of 1* DOs] x 63K

Over time, the difference between weapons and non-weapons for Dragon Orbs becomes rather insignificant, as the number of DOs becomes so large.

== Start Ignore ==

For an attempt to go from +0 to +1 it would cost:

- Mirage Stones Only (Average 1 success in 2 tries = 2)

- - Weapon: 2 x 30K = 60k

- - Non-weapon: 2 x 15K = 30k

- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star = 1)

- - Weapon: 30K + 1 x 63K = 93K

- - Non-weapon: 15K + 1 x 63K = 78K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +2 it would cost:

- Mirage Stones Only (Average 3 successes in 20 tries = 6.7)

- - Weapon: 6.7 x 30K = 200k

- - Non-weapon: 6.7 x 15K = 100k

- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star = 5 x 1 Star)

- - Weapon: 2 x 30K + 5 x 63K = 375K

- - Non-weapon: 2 x 15K + 5 x 63K = 345K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +3 it would cost:

- Mirage Stones Only (Average 9 successes in 200 tries = 22.2)

- - Weapon: 22.2 x 30K = 667k

- - Non-weapon: 22.2 x 15K = 333k

- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star = 15 x 1 Star)

- - Weapon: 3 x 30K + 15 x 63K = 1035K

- - Non-weapon: 3 x 15K + 15 x 63K = 990K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +4 it would cost:

- Mirage Stones Only (Average 27 successes in 2000 tries = 74.1)

- - Weapon: 74.1 x 30K = 2222k

- - Non-weapon: 74.1 x 15K = 1111k

- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star + 1 x 4 Star = 40 x 1 Star)

- - Weapon: 4 x 30K + 40 x 63K = 2640K

- - Non-weapon: 4 x 15K + 40 x 63K = 2580K

For an attempt to go from +0 to +5 it would cost:

- Mirage Stones Only (Average 81 successes in 20,000 tries = 246.9)

- - Weapon: 246.9 x 30K = 7407k

- - Non-weapon: 246.9 x 15K = 3703k

- Mirage and Dragon Orbs (1 x 1 Star + 1 x 2 Star + 1 x 3 Star + 1 x 4 Star + 1 x 5 Star = 100 x 1 Star)

- - Weapon: 5 x 30K + 100 x 63K = 6450K

- - Non-weapon: 5 x 15K + 100 x 63K = 6375K

== End Ignore ==

So it would appear, under these conditions at least, that the Dragon Orbs are cheaper for weapons after +4. With the above method continued, non-weapons should use Dragon Orbs after +6.

More interesting, however, is the Ocean Dragon Orb. This thing is CHEAP! Normally it would cost over 86.3 MILLION just to make one from the reduced 1 Star Dragon orbs (that is cheap in itself, as the normal price is 129.5 M). However, this week, it is on for only 26.3 M. That is about one FIFTH (just 20.2%) of the regular price, regardless of what gold costs. (Why do I feel all sticky now?)

And to everyone who can afford one and who goes out and buys one (or more) I have just one thing to say ....

&*#$%^& Rich ****!

Good Luck!

2,843Arc Usercongrats thier's a .0036% chance of that happening

"Also I don't think actually playing through the game helps your skill either."

-And we wonder why this game has gone to hell b:cute

2,674Arc UserThis link has spots for all the factors you could imagine. b:victory

Interestingly enough, if you put the current data in, the only change is that you should use a +10 orb at lvl 9. Everything other than that doesn't change, aside from the orb prices of course

EDIT: This is for armor, for weapons it recommends a +10 orb at lvl 8 too

9x Demon Cleric

1,686Arc UserA Grade 1 Stick has exactly a 50% chance of refining to +1, as does a Grade 5, Grade 10, Grade 12, Grade 13, etc... item.

And the chances do not decrease "exponentially" as the refinement increases. They go from 50% to 30%, then stay there until +8, at which point they decrease by 5% linearly.

I've tested this with multiple thousands of Mirages while keeping meticulous notes, as well as confirming it by directly examining the game data itself.

PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com

1,686Arc UserAs DeathBanana pointed out, the links to the spreadsheets at the start of the thread are already exactly the kinds of programs you're describing. Here's a link to a modified version that contains prices from the current Dragon Orb sale (at Sanctuary Gold/Mirage prices): http://sheet.zoho.com/public/warren.forrest/dragon-orb-sale

For armour, Mirages-only are still best up to +3, then Tienkangs are the best option to get to +5, then Tishas to get to +8. At that point the average cost is going to be about 35.2 million, versus 54.7 million using on-sale Dragon Orbs. Then for +9 and up it's time to switch to Dragon Orbs.

Note that it's probably going to take a really, really long time to actually get up to +8, though, and there's no guarantee that you'll actually save money. The thing about refining without Dragon Orbs is that there's risk and it takes time, whereas using Dragon Orbs may cost roughly twice as much, but they're a sure-thing and they're quick.

PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com

0Arc User448Arc User90% confidence = 1 - BINOMDIST(1 success, out of 85 trials, with a probability of 0.045, in a cumulative distribution TRUE)

We do very similar calculations to determine how many trials of a hardware component are needed to show that it's reliability before failure is X% (where the reliabilty is usually quite high and the confidence is also typicaly 95% or higher).

160Arc UserGold Price: 370,000

Mirage Stone Price: 15,000

Dragon Orb Sale Price: 0.18 Gold 66,600

Dragon Orb Regular Price: 0.27 Gold 99,900

+0 to +1 using only Mirage Stones:

Expected Tries: 2

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 60,000 30,000

+0 to +2 using only Mirage Stones:

Expected Tries: 10

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 300,000 150,000

+0 to +3 using only Mirage Stones:

Expected Tries: 36.67

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 1,100,100 550,050

Estimated Cost of Dragon Orbs (on sale):

+0 to +1 using Dragon Orb 1 1

and Mirage Stones: 2 1

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 96,600 81,600

+0 to +2 using Dragon Orbs 5 5

and Mirage Stones: 4 2

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 393,000 363,000

+0 to +3 using Dragon Orbs 15 15

and Mirage Stones: 6 3

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 1,089,000 1,044,000

Estimated Cost of Dragon Orbs (regular price):

+0 to +1 using Dragon Orb 1 1

and Mirage Stones: 2 1

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 129,900 114,900

+0 to +2 using Dragon Orbs 5 5

and Mirage Stones: 4 2

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 559,500 529,500

+0 to +3 using Dragon Orbs 15 15

and Mirage Stones: 6 3

Expected Cost: (Weapon/non-Weapon) 1,588,500 1,543,500

More to come.

I wanted to get this out as it appears the on sale Dragon Orbs are a good deal even at the +3 lvl for weapons, and they are only on sale for a short time longer.

The simulator does not yet allow for the other stone types or for switching methods, but it should be obvious that if you want a weapon to become +3, take it to +2 first with Mirage Stones (average cost is 300K) and then use 10 Dragon Orbs to take it to +3 (cost 666K more for the Orbs and 30k more for the Mirage Stones). Total Expected Cost: 996K, which is considerably less than the 1,100K Expected Cost from Mirage Stones alone.

[This all assumes I have done the math correctly, of course.]

I will add more as I get more output from the simulator.

Good Luck!

2,843Arc User"Also I don't think actually playing through the game helps your skill either."

-And we wonder why this game has gone to hell b:cute

2,843Arc User3 mirages: 4.5% (fewest number of mirages possible)

10 mirages: 21.6%

20 mirages: 41.3%

30 mirages: 56.0%

40 mirages: 67.1%

50 mirages: 75.3%

60 mirages: 81.5%

70 mirages: 85.8%

80 mirages: 89.6%

90 mirages: 92.2%

100 mirages: 94.2%

The distribution looks something like a poisson process, so is asymmetric. That means the number most people are interested in - the average number of mirages - is not at the 50% mark. Unlike a normal gaussian distribution, the median, mean, and mode do not fall in the same place. So I don't think the average has the intuitive meaning most people are expecting.

In other words, the questions: "How many mirages will it usually take to get to +3?" and "How many mirages will it take to have a 50% chance to succeed at getting to +3?" have different answers.

In practical terms, I've gotten lucky a few times and gotten +3 with just 3 mirages. Usually I can get it within 20-50 mirages. And I had one cursed item where I blew 128 mirages and never got it to +3. b:cry

192Arc UserI love it when you talk smexy b:sin

186Arc UserThere are no changes in stats though. Does refining on effect magic items or what does it do?

Thanks b:bye

448Arc Userhttp://pwi.perfectworld.com/advinfo/refining

http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Refining