Refining for cheap

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Thanks to the help and input from so many here on the forums, many of the questions about refining without Dragon Orbs have been answered. The tl;dr version is as follows:

The chance of success when refining without Dragon Orbs is:

From    To   Mirage  Tienkang   Tisha  Chienkun
 +0 --> +1:    50%      65%     53.5%    100%
 +1 --> +2:    30%      45%     33.5%     25%
 +2 --> +3:    30%      45%     33.5%     10%
 +3 --> +4:    30%      45%     33.5%     4%
 +4 --> +5:    30%      45%     33.5%    1.67%
 +5 --> +6:    30%      45%     33.5%    0.77%
 +6 --> +7:    30%      45%     33.5%    0.47%
 +7 --> +8:    30%      45%     33.5%    0.25%
 +8 --> +9:    25%      40%     28.5%    0.13%
 +9 -> +10:    20%      35%     23.5%    0.07%
+10 -> +11:    12%      27%     15.5%    0.04%
+11 -> +12:     5%      20%      8.5%    0.02%

- Generally speaking, refining armour up to +7 costs, on average, about 1/3 the price of Dragon Orbs, provided you do it correctly are willing and able to accept the risks involved!

- Refining weapons up to +7 costs, on average, about 1/2 the price of Dragon Orbs.

- Dragon Orbs typically become the cheapest way to refine when dealing with refines of +8 or greater.

- Dragon Orb Oceans, which can refine up to +10, are usually the cheapest option for refining +8 and +9 as well.

- Sale prices obviously have a huge impact on refining costs. The best strategy is to wait for a 50%-off sale on Tienkangs and Tishas and then refine up to +7, then wait for a 65%-off sale on Dragon Orbs to refine your gear higher.

- When not on sale, Tishas/Tienkangs can also be purchased for a discount by purchasing DQ items from other players, then exchanging them for Event Gold. The exact amount of savings will vary depending upon server prices.

- Choosing which stone is the most cost effective for each level of refine can be calculated by entering the current market price for Mirages, Gold, Stones, and Orbs into this spreadsheet: Zoho Sheet - Refining Guide

- A more feature-rich, Excel-only version of the same spreadsheet, that is also capable of running simulations of thousands of refining attempts, can be downloaded here: Excel Version - Refining Guide

- Duke Blacke's rumours regarding certain times of day, certain NPCs, certain techniques, certain types of equipment, etc..., having better odds for refining success appear to all be false. For example, the rumour that the Harshlands Officer gives better +1 refining odds to players who belong to the faction that owns the land was tested with several hundred Mirages and no improvement was found.

Good luck, and happy refining! (for cheap!)

(The rest of this post is the original question and theory that I posed to the forum. Please note that my 40% theory was eventually proven false! The correct numbers are now listed above.)

- end of EDIT -

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

ORIGINAL FIRST POST:

Finding accurate information about refining seems to be really tricky. Other than, "Dragon Orbs give 100% of refining success," there seems to be a lot of guesswork and factually inaccurate claims out there.

Now, I don't claim to know the truth either, so I'm wondering if my theory matches what other people have experienced.

My theory, based on my (admittedly limited) experience, is that refining with just Mirages has a 40% chance of success. It doesn't seem to matter what level of refinement you already have, so whether you're going from +0 to +1, or +9 to +10, you've still got a 40% chance of success.

If that's the case, then the average number of Mirages you'll need to refine a piece of armour is as follows:

+1: 2.5
+2: 6.25
+3: 15.6
+4: 39
+5: 98
+6: 244
+7: 610
+8: 1526
+9: 3815
+10: 9537
+11: 23842
+12: 59605

If this is true (and this is why I'm asking what others have experienced), then at current inflated Gold prices vs. deflated Mirage prices you're better off, on average, using just Mirages and skipping Dragon Orbs.

For example, at 15k per Mirage you'll average about 9million to +7 something, but if you buy Dragon Orbs at 400k Gold prices you'll spend about 48million.

Does this sound about right, or am I way off?

Brael - Dreamweaver

I've had the same experience as you, and made a similar list of costs and mirage needed, but the success rates I've seen have been different. I believe they're somewhere around 1/4 to 1/3 success.

At 1/4 success that's:
4
16
64
256
1024
4096
16384
65536
262144
1048576
4194304
16777216

At 1/3 success that's:
3
9
27
81
243
729
2187
6561
19683
59049
177147
531441

With the experience I've had so far refining gear up to +4, I'm more inclined to believe it's closer to 33%, though I suppose it could be a 40% chance and I've simply been unlucky.

AlbireoTwo - Lost City

0% chance for me. Tried refining my weapon once when I was like, level 20. Didn't work. b:avoid

MagicHamsta - Lost City

Me run on noob power so teh success rates be different for me. (Increased chance to raise all me get to +8 cheaper then average....any higher and me will experience teh unstable feedback in noob power and chances will be worse then average)

+ 1 = 1
+ 2 = 4
+3 = 10

b:puzzled

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Brael - Dreamweaver wrote: »

I've had the same experience as you, and made a similar list of costs and mirage needed, but the success rates I've seen have been different. I believe they're somewhere around 1/4 to 1/3 success.

Ah, well that at least supports the notion that it's a fixed chance, regardless of how much refinement you've currently got.

I've only just recently started taking accurate notes, and so far the ratio is 18/55, which is 33%. My estimate of 40% was based upon my memory of being more successful in the past, but of course I wasn't taking notes and so I'm sure my memory was biased.

Brael - Dreamweaver

Using the old stated rates for refines, which I don't believe are accurate at all, you come up with these chances, taking the success of one level divided by the previous level

+2: 0.53
+3: 0.5
+4: 0.4
+5: 0.5
+6: 0.2
+7: 0.5
+8: 0.5
+9: 0.4
+10: 0.5
+11: 0.5
+12: 0.4

Average: .45

I have no idea if they work out that way or not, but I suppose it's possible. With a 45% chance (I know taking the average here isn't good math... it's just speculation) you would see:
1 2.22
2 5.56
3 13.89
4 34.72
5 86.81
6 217.01
7 542.53
8 1356.34
9 3390.84
10 8477.11
11 21192.76
12 52981.91

If that were the case, using say... 18k mirage (they seem to be fluctuating between 15k and 20k on DW currently) in coin and gold (360k gold) that would be:

1	40000		0.11
2	100000		0.27
3	250000		0.68
4	625000		1.7
5	1562500		4.26
6	3906250		10.64
7	9765625		26.59
8	24414062.5	66.49
9	61035156.25	166.22
10	152587890.63	415.54
11	381469726.56	1038.86
12	953674316.41	2597.15

What I'm wondering about currently is how Tisha/Tienkang stones would factor into this, and if they would prove to be more cost effective than mirage spam.

Miss_Tika - Lost City

I refined +0 --> +7 with only 9 mirages and no dragon orbs b:cute

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

Miss_Tika - Lost City wrote: »

I refined +0 --> +7 with only 9 mirages and no dragon orbs b:cute

O.O

Brael - Dreamweaver

Just sacrificed 100 mirage to an elder. 43/100 refines were successful. I didn't track how many were to +1 and +2, but I know two went to +3. The item used was a level 12 OHT neck.

Michael_Dark - Lost City

It seems to me the higher the level of the item, the less likely chance you have to refine. Some items, like lvl 14 gear usually do not accept a free refine so easily, whereas lvl 8-10 gear seems to refine easier.

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Interesting. Gonna start keeping track of my refine success rates. I have yet to make my TT90 gear, so I have a lot of refines coming up in the next month or two.

I was thrown off early-on because my early experience with +1 refines pointed to about a 50% success rate, while +2 was about 25%-33%. But lately I've had a spate of 3- or 4-failures at +1, dragging the average down to the 25%-40% range you guys are talking about.

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary

I've heard of players hitting +6 on full sets using tiesha stones at a fraction the price orbs would require.
From experience I +1 everything with mirages, usually takes one to three attempts.

If everyone posted results from attempting refines with mirages you could at least get a rough accurate %rate.

Alyyy - Sanctuary

Miss_Tika - Lost City wrote: »

I refined +0 --> +7 with only 9 mirages and no dragon orbs b:cute

b:scornb:coldb:sweat..............................


gime

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Michael_dark - Lost City wrote: »

It seems to me the higher the level of the item, the less likely chance you have to refine. Some items, like lvl 14 gear usually do not accept a free refine so easily, whereas lvl 8-10 gear seems to refine easier.

Hmm... good point. I haven't been noting the item level during refining, but most of the stuff I've been refining has been lvl. 10. I'll have to keep track of that and see.

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary wrote: »

I've heard of players hitting +6 on full sets using tiesha stones at a fraction the price orbs would require.
From experience I +1 everything with mirages, usually takes one to three attempts.

If Tisha stones granted 50% refine (and that's a HUGE if, because I have absolutely no proof of what they do), then at 400k per Gold, +6 would cost about 7.5mill on average using Tisha stones, versus 25mill using Dragon Orbs.

So there are indeed potentially big savings to be had, but even slight differences in probability could mean differences of tens of millions.

Peritia - Lost City

Just gonna add my data to the pool:

Refinement: SuccessRate (sample)

0-1: 0.612 (67)
1-2: 0.415 (41)
2-3: 0.467 (15)

I'm assuming the values for 1-2 and 2-3 will converge as the sample size grows. I've also not had sufficient mirages to properly test refining beyond +3 (with only mirages), so I shall limit my data to those three.

Brael - Dreamweaver

Michael_dark - Lost City wrote: »

It seems to me the higher the level of the item, the less likely chance you have to refine. Some items, like lvl 14 gear usually do not accept a free refine so easily, whereas lvl 8-10 gear seems to refine easier.

It's certainly possible and not worth ruling out, however my level 14 boots went to +3 with no orbs for around 30 mirage, my level 14 helm went to +4 for 20 mirage, and my level 11 sword went to +5 for 10 mirage (got lucky on those items). I also have a level 10 Might Ring I sometimes swap in for physical AE's which has taken 40 mirage so far and hasn't even made it to +2.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

If Tisha stones granted 50% refine (and that's a HUGE if, because I have absolutely no proof of what they do), then at 400k per Gold, +6 would cost about 7.5mill on average using Tisha stones, versus 25mill using Dragon Orbs.

So there are indeed potentially big savings to be had, but even slight differences in probability could mean differences of tens of millions.

It's possible that Tisha/Tienkang are each more useful at certain times depending on market conditions. I would think it would vary based on the ratio between gold and mirage costs. When I throw Tienkangs into a sheet, assuming they boost the rate to 50% (it's unlikely we'll ever get good rates for these things unless PWI leaks the info) I'm coming up with:

Refine Level	40% mir		50% mir	Mir saved	Coin saved	Tien cost	Total saved
+1		2.5		2	0.5		8500		216000		-207500
+2		6.25		4	2.25		38250		432000		-393750
+3		15.63		8	7.63		129625		864000		-734375
+4		39.06		16	23.06		392062.5	1728000		-1335937.5
+5		97.66		32	65.66		1116156.25	3456000		-2339843.75
+6		244.14		64	180.14		3062390.63	6912000		-3849609.38
+7		610.35		128	482.35		8199976.56	13824000	-5624023.44
+8		1525.88		256	1269.88		21587941.41	27648000	-6060058.59
+9		3814.7		512	3302.7		56145853.52	55296000	849853.52
+10		9536.74		1024	8512.74		144716633.79	110592000	34124633.79
+11		23841.86	2048	21793.86	370495584.47	221184000	149311584.47
+12		59604.64	4096	55508.64	943646961.18	442368000	501278961.18

That's using 400k gold, 17k mirage, and buying the stones at 27 silver each. Ultimately though, without being told the rates, it's going to be impossible to determine without actually trying it.

Divine_Death - Dreamweaver

Hopefully it's true that the chances are the same regardless of current refine. But the problem with that is statistics. If you are going for +7 and used 610 mirages, but due to statistic variation, it wouldn't have come until the 612th mirages then, you just lost a lot of money. I've spent between 2 and 40 mirages to get a armor to +2, the variation is just too big. I +2 all my gears with just mirages and have used orbs from there on. b:surrender

Another problem I see is that when it fails, it does not stay at the same refine, but starts over. I'm not exactly sure how this affects the math, but you get the idea.

Nowitsawn - Heavens Tear

To be honest though, after getting +4 on a weapon with only mirages I'd just stop, because possibly going back to +0 would be too much of a waste for me.

Brael - Dreamweaver

Divine_Death - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Hopefully it's true that the chances are the same regardless of current refine. But the problem with that is statistics. If you are going for +7 and used 610 mirages, but due to statistic variation, it wouldn't have come until the 612th mirages then, you just lost a lot of money. I've spent between 2 and 40 mirages to get a armor to +2, the variation is just too big. I +2 all my gears with just mirages and have used orbs from there on. b:surrender

Another problem I see is that when it fails, it does not stay at the same refine, but starts over. I'm not exactly sure how this affects the math, but you get the idea.

The variation is rather large, but the potential cost savings are worth the mirage stockpile. Accounting for when something fails and resets is rather easy, and all the math we've done accounts for that. It's a bit more tricky though for Tisha stones.

To be honest though, after getting +4 on a weapon with only mirages I'd just stop, because possibly going back to +0 would be too much of a waste for me.

That would depend on how many Mirage you had wouldn't it? 18 gold gets you 432 mirage. Though, since weapons do take twice as many mirage to spam, orbs should be a bit less costly for them.

Ultimate - Harshlands

In 2 years of knowing PW, i have only met 3 ppl that actually showed me proof of such a thing.

Im not sure how many ppl is aware of the list of things that the Duke in Archosaur tells you for a few coins. In some other website there was a huge list of all the things that he would say, but the problem is that not all these things were applicable as they vary depending on the day and time of the in-game week.

The ppl i mentioned constantly showed me that they somehow broke down the tables and game times for the best refining success rate.
In short, they told me that you have more then just 40% success rate by refining certain things, at certain times, at certain NPCs. Therefore, they would able to high refine with just a few tisha stones.

Just wondering if anyone in PWI actually has this information, as i doubt these in-game times are the same as other region servers.

Damewort - Sanctuary

I will need triple amount of that... I used 60+ mirages to get my WoDF to +1... at the end gave to friend who got it to +2.
Today used ~50 mirages on gears. Quite few times got strike of 5-10 fails in row. But got positive result - two armor pieces are +3 and two other got back to +2. (at the begining they all was +2)

shootingstarvn

Ultimate - Harshlands wrote: »

In 2 years of knowing PW, i have only met 3 ppl that actually showed me proof of such a thing.

Im not sure how many ppl is aware of the list of things that the Duke in Archosaur tells you for a few coins. In some other website there was a huge list of all the things that he would say, but the problem is that not all these things were applicable as they vary depending on the day and time of the in-game week.

The ppl i mentioned constantly showed me that they somehow broke down the tables and game times for the best refining success rate.
In short, they told me that you have more then just 40% success rate by refining certain things, at certain times, at certain NPCs. Therefore, they would able to high refine with just a few tisha stones.

Just wondering if anyone in PWI actually has this information, as i doubt these in-game times are the same as other region servers.

do u know when and where to ref with higher chance ?

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Brael - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Ultimately though, without being told the rates, it's going to be impossible to determine without actually trying it.

You've certainly provided exactly the kind of information I've been collecting myself, and your analysis looks very similar to my own.

One problem I ran into, though, was that I realized that my spreadsheet was calculating things all-or-nothing for only one type of refining. To be really useful, my calculations need to choose the most cost-effective method for each stage and adjust the risk/benefit calculations dynamically, thus giving step-by-step instructions of what type of refining to use at each level.

The general trend is Mirages only at first, then one of the other Stones for mid-levels, then Dragon Orbs for highest levels. But from what tweaking I have done so far it's clear to me that even slight changes in the price of Gold or Mirages can have a dramatic shift in the calculations.

Of course, before I can do all that we need to crack the exact percentages of what each type of refining does first...

Ultimate - Harshlands wrote: »

The ppl i mentioned constantly showed me that they somehow broke down the tables and game times for the best refining success rate.
In short, they told me that you have more then just 40% success rate by refining certain things, at certain times, at certain NPCs. Therefore, they would able to high refine with just a few tisha stones.

The fact that there are special NPCs that you can only use if your faction owns the land leads me to believe that there are at least some real secrets to getting high refines for cheap.

However, judging by the number of similar rumours surrounding the crafting of 1, 2, and 3 star items, even though those percentages are fixed and public knowledge, it's also very likely that the majority of refining "secrets" are results of random chance.

If Tisha stones give even a slight boost, say, of 10%, the overall average cost can shift by a factor of x4 or more. That alone could account for people getting high level refines for only a fraction of the cost of Dragon Orbs, but of course I can't be sure.

Morrzan - Sanctuary

Lol, thats a lot of math...

Chillum - Dreamweaver

Morrzan - Sanctuary wrote: »

Lol, thats a lot of math...

It certainly is but I for one at least would be interested to know and / or get as much information as possible that can be based on some kind of evidence.

I guess the better source for this would be PWI releasing the actual percentages.

Brael & WarrenWolfy, keep it up! b:victory

Regards.

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Divine_Death - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Hopefully it's true that the chances are the same regardless of current refine. But the problem with that is statistics. If you are going for +7 and used 610 mirages, but due to statistic variation, it wouldn't have come until the 612th mirages then, you just lost a lot of money. I've spent between 2 and 40 mirages to get a armor to +2, the variation is just too big. I +2 all my gears with just mirages and have used orbs from there on. b:surrender

The distribution (variation) is a discrete version of a Poisson process. I've done Poisson distributions before, but not the discrete version. Google says it's called a Bernoulli process. So while calculating the average number of mirages needed is relatively straightforward, the distribution around that average is going to be geometric for +1, and compounded for the higher refines.

In English, in a Normal distribution, the chance of being above or below the average is the same and symmetric. If on average it takes you 2 tries, the chance of it taking 1 try or 3 tries is the same. And since it's impossible for it to take 0 tries, it's also impossible for it to take 4 or more tries.

In a Poisson or Bernoulli distribution, the chance of being above or below the average is the same, but is asymmetric. If you have a 50% chance of success, on average it will take you 2 tries. It could also take you 1 try. But it could also take you 3, 4, 5 even 10 tries. The chance of 3 to infinity tries is the same as the chance for 1 try, but as you point out the asymmetric distribution can cause a relatively high deviation from the average.

Fortunately the average is all you need to "play the odds" and figure out the best way to proceed. But it's going to be relatively easier to spend a lot more than the average.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Here is some more data:

Refining Cuisses of the Sea Captain (lvl. 10, 4 sockets, started at +3) at the Archosaur Elder at 8:10am.

+1: 39/80 (48.8%)
+2: 17/35 (48.6%)
+3: 6/17 (35.3%)
+4: 1/7 (14.3%)
+5: 1/1 (100%)

Total Mirages: 140

I only had 22 Mirages left when I got to +5, so I figured I'd stop. Obviously, the results for +4 and +5 are such small sample sizes that I wouldn't put any faith in them.

- EDIT -

I just realized there's clearly an error in this data. I have 39 successes listed for +1, but only 35 total samples for +2. I suspect that I accidentally recorded some failed +2 attempts as failed +1 attempts. If so, then the correct numbers would be:

+1: 39/76 (51.3%)
+2: 17/39 (43.6%)

I'll make sure to be more diligent in the future!

Mumintroll - Heavens Tear

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Here is some more data:

Refining Cuisses of the Sea Captain (lvl. 10, 4 sockets, started at +3) at the Archosaur Elder at 8:10am.

+1: 39/80 (48.8%)
+2: 17/35 (48.6%)
+3: 6/17 (35.3%)
+4: 1/7 (14.3%)
+5: 1/1 (100%)

Total Mirages: 140

I only had 22 Mirages left when I got to +5, so I figured I'd stop. Obviously, the results for +4 and +5 are such small sample sizes that I wouldn't put any faith in them.

- EDIT -

I just realized there's clearly an error in this data. I have 39 successes listed for +1, but only 35 total samples for +2. I suspect that I accidentally recorded some failed +2 attempts as failed +1 attempts. If so, then the correct numbers would be:

+1: 39/76 (51.3%)
+2: 17/39 (43.6%)

I'll make sure to be more diligent in the future!

it was what time? 8.10 am game time or server time. I think server time so it's normal time. The game has it own time. If you hold cursor at small icon,beside small map at corner, it shows you game time. And time game is going much faster than normal time. So you have maybe 3game days in 1 real day.

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Here is some more data:

Refining Cuisses of the Sea Captain (lvl. 10, 4 sockets, started at +3) at the Archosaur Elder at 8:10am.

+1: 39/80 (48.8%)
+2: 17/35 (48.6%)
+3: 6/17 (35.3%)
+4: 1/7 (14.3%)
+5: 1/1 (100%)

Total Mirages: 140

so roughly cost you 2.25m at current mirage prices for a +5 refine?

Good work so far! Hopefully combining all this data will provide accurate figures on refining success rates. Obviously there will always be an element of a slight gamble but still good to know.

Amusing considering +1-5 orb boxes were going at 20 gold a pop.

Mumintroll - Heavens Tear

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary wrote: »

so roughly cost you 2.25m at current mirage prices for a +5 refine?

Good work so far! Hopefully combining all this data will provide accurate figures on refining success rates. Obviously there will always be an element of a slight gamble but still good to know.

Amusing considering +1-5 orb boxes were going at 20 gold a pop.

The biggest problem is if you failure, you have to start again from 0. (if you don't use these protection stones). The nice option would be, if you failure you wouldn't go from 0. And success refining could be much lower.
You have to be successful 5x in row. This possibility is very low I think.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »

it was what time? 8.10 am game time or server time. I think server time so it's normal time. The game has it own time. If you hold cursor at small icon,beside small map at corner, it shows you game time. And time game is going much faster than normal time. So you have maybe 3game days in 1 real day.

8:10am server time. I don't know what it was game time. I'll be sure to note that in the future as well.

_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary wrote: »

so roughly cost you 2.25m at current mirage prices for a +5 refine?

Good work so far! Hopefully combining all this data will provide accurate figures on refining success rates. Obviously there will always be an element of a slight gamble but still good to know.

Amusing considering +1-5 orb boxes were going at 20 gold a pop.

So far, yes, but of course it's impossible to know whether I got lucky or not without even more data. If my 40% theory is correct then I hit the average almost exactly, but since I only did it one time there's a huge luck factor involved. Considering I went from +3 to +5 on my last two refines, I could just as easily have ended up with nothing.

On a side note... I feel kinda silly now. I mean, who wastes a +5 refine on Cuisses of the Sea Captain at today's Dragon Orb Prices? b:chuckle