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Dilthium HAS Officially crashed

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  • lolimpicardlolimpicard Member Posts: 309
    edited January 2013
    For those of you out to get rich on the current dilithium issue, thinking that driving the prices down is a good thing, I really need you to consider this.

    The economic principles of the exchange are no different to that of any real world economy.

    So while you may be getting a quick fix on your zen now, in the long term it is stopping any revenue coming into STO as people are just not prepared to buy zen to trade for dilithium.

    Nobody buys, the well drys up. And there you have it. People see the prices going up as a mystery third party tries to stabilize the market (similar to what Richard Whitney tried to do), and BOOM you have your panic selling and inevitable crash....

    I'm looking forward to seeing it happen as I have not been hoarding.

    I'm gonna allege you didn't understand what you were saying.

    A low value of Zen (what we have now) is the result of people being willing to sell their Zen (that someone purchased at some point) for a lower amount of dilithium than previously, since dilithium increased in value.
    The only ones getting "rich" is people buying Zen with dilithium: which doesn't make those people rich; it only serves Cryptic.

    The people buying/hoarding Zen now or at any low point - if the market was to "crash" (which is a totally mute point) - would EARN loads of dilithium.

    The loser would be the ones who decided to simply hoard their dilithium, instead of using it.

    Your original argument is totally mixed up.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    He's dead, Jim.
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  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    87 now!! and not much below that!! 30k down to 82!

    And pls keep the thread as civil as possible.

    Thx
  • latinumbarlatinumbar Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    It's that will to buy something that is slowly becoming less valuable that is at the heart of the matter. I contend the issue is less with Cryptic and more with player attitudes about the situation presented in this thread.

    Perhaps this is where you may be confused. Dilithium is not becoming LESS valuable. On the contrary, it is becoming MORE valuable. People WANT dilithium. It has more uses now, and therefore has more 'value'. Sure, the number displayed in the exchange is going down, but that is just the relative cost of dilithium to Zen. It is ZEN that is becoming less valuable. That's why people are willing to get rid of it in exchange for dilithium.
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  • onenonlydrockonenonlydrock Member Posts: 132 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Hmph. All this debate and nothing's getting solved.:mad:

    UPDATE: I've gotten more of my fleetmates to donate dil and I've done more active recruiting. Still not enough to fulfill fleet demands for current and future projects, but this is something that is going to take time to show any tangible results.

    Dilithium is reaching the 80's now... never thought I'd see the day when THAT happens.

    Stopped buying dilithium with zen. Feeling the pinch now. Not good. Having to wait a long time to get anything.

    I'm also sympathetic to people who say that the dilithium market works like a real world economy. Unfortunately... it works like a real world economy! We've learned the past few years that real world economics is actually kinda screwed up. Wouldn't it stand to reason that therefore an economy mirroring its functions may also be screwed up, like say... the Dilithium exchange?

    Still I watch, wait and hope for change, while doing my own little bit to be part of that change. No more dilithium buying with zen until the 'free market' adjusts.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Hmph. All this debate and nothing's getting solved.:mad:

    UPDATE: I've gotten more of my fleetmates to donate dil and I've done more active recruiting. Still not enough to fulfill fleet demands for current and future projects, but this is something that is going to take time to show any tangible results.

    Dilithium is reaching the 80's now... never thought I'd see the day when THAT happens.

    Stopped buying dilithium with zen. Feeling the pinch now. Not good. Having to wait a long time to get anything.

    I'm also sympathetic to people who say that the dilithium market works like a real world economy. Unfortunately... it works like a real world economy! We've learned the past few years that real world economics is actually kinda screwed up. Wouldn't it stand to reason that therefore an economy mirroring its functions may also be screwed up, like say... the Dilithium exchange?

    Still I watch, wait and hope for change, while doing my own little bit to be part of that change. No more dilithium buying with zen until the 'free market' adjusts.

    At what price point would you open the wallet to buy Zen? Keep in mind that I don't think we will see above 120 unless they suddenly announce a romulan faction with 5 - 2500 zen romulan ships in the z-store - then 130-150 could be possible again for awhile.
  • onenonlydrockonenonlydrock Member Posts: 132 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    At what price point would you open the wallet to buy Zen? Keep in mind that I don't think we will see above 120 unless they suddenly announce a romulan faction with 5 - 2500 zen romulan ships in the z-store - then 130-150 could be possible again for awhile.

    Actually... yeah. At that point.

    Though I'd settle for 105 if I was desperate.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • lolimpicardlolimpicard Member Posts: 309
    edited January 2013
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    Its a result on a increasing demand for Dilithium, first due to T4 and T5 Starbase projects and second because of Reputation projects gear.

    Second and this is what you forget is people have strippends, lifers get 500 Zen every month but since the Zen Store is playing 5th Fiddle to the Lobi store there is little if any that lifers need from the Zen Store.

    You're right about the stipends in that I failed to think of them, but the matter is more complex, since these Zen points have been paid for, too, just in different ways/amounts and different times.
    It's beyond our ability to truely factor in this, since we have no hard numbers.

    About the first thing however, you are mistaken (ever so slightly).
    Demand has risen (I effectively said that, too. Demand and "value" is directly correlated.) but it still is down to people to sell their Zen at their own free will at rates that are (for the very most part) totally down to them. It's not like anything forces them to sell, not even "demand" so it is as I said. Without their willingness to sell at such rates the demand would simply be even less satisfied and the price would be higher - the lowest anyone was willing to trade it.
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    It does not serve Cryptic.

    Zen costs real money, there is a significant amount of Zen in the exchange that come from lifers and subscribers and Cryptic does not see a cent from lifers that are selling their Zen stripped.

    That's hardly relevant and part of the stipend thing.
    They see money from those who buy the Zen ordinarily - which is something people do, too.
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    Zen is crashing, Dilithium is not and only thing Cryptic have shown is continuing to add more Dilithium sinks.

    As stands and looking at Cryptic decisions the chances of Dilithium crashing are almost non-existing since to start you need for Starbases and Embassy to complete and there is also the need for no more Dilithium sinks to be added, history shown that is EXACTLY what Cryptic will do, even if Season 7 did reverse the Dilithium costs in projects it still maintained the costs on gear.

    I said: Zen is going down.
    You said: Nope! Dilithium demand increases!
    I said: Dilithium is booming!
    You said: Nope! Zen is crashing.

    We look at this differently, and your style of argument is invalid.
    I consider this a Boom of Dilithium, which is exactly what it is (however artificial).

    You think this is Zen that is crashing, while nothing really changed about Zen.

    I'm close to calling this argument here.
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    I am sorry but were I am the looser?

    I have about 200k stored, I entertained the thought of buying Zen but I have to buy STF sets, Fleet Uniforms and I am going to sit until I get access to Fleet Elite Ship weapons.

    I HAVE uses for Dilithium, I have few for Zen.

    You're not sitting on a lot of dilithium, you fall in the "user" category - just like most people.
    You just have slightly more dilithium than the next person.
    That's not hoarding... how are you gonna lose if you spend it? Did you even read what I wrote?
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    And your is hilarious.

    I think you just want people to drop Dilithium on the Exchange to drive the exchange up so you can buy Dilithium with Zen because that is the gist of your entire argument.

    Guess what?

    Dilithium supplies might get more Dilithium but are still capped, people that are not Dilithium suppliers are not going to dump it on the Exchange no matter how you try to trick then with such bold faced lies as a "Dilithium crash" ... yes because we are all stupid and cannot see the 16k Fleet Uniform costs or the 32k costs for STF sets.

    This goes without commentary.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    He's dead, Jim.
  • cmdrscarletcmdrscarlet Member Posts: 5,137 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    latinumbar wrote: »
    Perhaps this is where you may be confused. Dilithium is not becoming LESS valuable. On the contrary, it is becoming MORE valuable. People WANT dilithium. It has more uses now, and therefore has more 'value'. Sure, the number displayed in the exchange is going down, but that is just the relative cost of dilithium to Zen. It is ZEN that is becoming less valuable. That's why people are willing to get rid of it in exchange for dilithium.

    Well said, and maybe I am getting confused. It could also be that I have a certain perspective: I'm a Dilithium buyer, hands down. So, yes, it *is* valuable to me and the only way I'm going to get a lot of it (without time and effort) is through Zen. I have determined that less than 100 D to each of my Zen is not worth it - in other words, from my perspective, the amount of Dilthium for each of my Zen has decreased in value. Why? Because I spent real money on Zen. Regardless of the merits or sanity of that decision, it's done. The consequence is that my Dilithium intake has dropped to my pre-Exchange days ... and I'm ok with that. :)

    For me, I think people who will pay for Dilithium with Zen (no matter the source of how that Zen was acquired) when the Dilithium:Zen margin is shrinking, is pushig that margin to further shrink ... because the Dilithium (at any ratio to Zen ) is more valuable than the Zen itself as long as the ratio is *not* 1:1.

    As a Dilithium buyer, I'm disliking that concept, naturally.
  • weylandjuarezweylandjuarez Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    At what price point would you open the wallet to buy Zen? Keep in mind that I don't think we will see above 120 unless they suddenly announce a romulan faction with 5 - 2500 zen romulan ships in the z-store - then 130-150 could be possible again for awhile.

    It's hard to say if it'll ever climb that high again - Zen has been in freefall since the Officer Reports clicky basically nuked a huge amount of Dilithium earning - plus a lot of STF players had big stockpiles of Ore prior to Season 7 going live.

    Yes, a lot of people are reaching Tier 5 in the Rep system now and doubtless spending some of their hoarded Dilithium but there's still nothing of much interest in the C-Store to buy so I literally have no use for Zen.

    I don't think we've found the level of the 'new economy' yet - at some point it'll settle - maybe a bit higher than it is now, but the ramifications of turning off the taps on all those alts are still being felt which is why the value of Zen is continuing to fall.
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  • lolimpicardlolimpicard Member Posts: 309
    edited January 2013
    Well said, and maybe I am getting confused. It could also be that I have a certain perspective: I'm a Dilithium buyer, hands down. So, yes, it *is* valuable to me and the only way I'm going to get a lot of it (without time and effort) is through Zen. I have determined that less than 100 D to each of my Zen is not worth it - in other words, from my perspective, the amount of Dilthium for each of my Zen has decreased in value. Why? Because I spent real money on Zen. Regardless of the merits or sanity of that decision, it's done. The consequence is that my Dilithium intake has dropped to my pre-Exchange days ... and I'm ok with that. :)

    For me, I think people who will pay for Dilithium with Zen (no matter the source of how that Zen was acquired) when the Dilithium:Zen margin is shrinking, is pushig that margin to further shrink ... because the Dilithium (at any ratio to Zen ) is more valuable than the Zen itself as long as the ratio is *not* 1:1.

    As a Dilithium buyer, I'm disliking that concept, naturally.

    Thanks for lending some first-hand support to my argument.
    Peoples willingness to trade at a given rate sets the price - combined with competition.

    Zen itself hasn't changed and for the purpose of my argument it's nothing but a unit of measurement.

    #A small edit calling to mind the stipends: It's a bit different with them, tho, no doubt.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    He's dead, Jim.
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  • trellabortrellabor Member Posts: 209 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    That is not going to ever happen because there is a bottom limit, it will floor when it reaches 25:1 since that is as low as it can get.

    There should also be a upper limit but I never checked since I use the lower one to move Dilithium to account and then withdraw it as needed.

    There is an upper and lower limit installed by Cryptic that will prevent DIL from going over/under a certain exchange value to ZEN, IIRC its 25-500.
    ____
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  • jtmarshjtmarsh Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Its all supply and demand people. Whats hot now and whats not. DILL had a lot of uses the last few months. While at the same time nothing has been dropping in Cstore. Last thing was what?? Racing Uniform?? Or maybe the S1 Admiral uniform. No big Oddys and the Vesta-class ship did not pop for people as much as other ships like the oddy. So Zen is not so hot at the moment.. That could change! Throw out a Voyager Int or TNG Enterprise INT or maybe a new lock box ship you will then see Zen raise on the exchange.
  • lonnehartlonnehart Member Posts: 846 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Or maybe the outfits you only see in Risa... and zones to use them in. :)
    *sings* "I like Gammera! He's so neat!!! He is full of turtle meat!!!"

    "Hah! You are doomed! You're only armed with that pathetic excuse for a musical instrument!!!" *the Savage Beast moments before Lonnehart the Bard used music to soothe him... then beat him to death with his Fat Lute*
  • stark2kstark2k Member Posts: 1,467 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    f2pdrakron wrote: »
    That is not going to ever happen because there is a bottom limit, it will floor when it reaches 25:1 since that is as low as it can get.

    I beg to differ, it may be possible that it could drop within the teens, 15:1 or less - The way I see it, ZEN is pretty much worthless and has De-valued considerably. Its only saving grace are the keys for lockboxes or EC accumulation.

    Cryptic most likely will be stepping in soon and creating a bit of a Zen sink, since the keys and modules are not enough.

    The only way it stops at a 25:1 is if Cryptic controls it at that point.
    jtmarsh wrote: »
    Its all supply and demand people. Whats hot now and whats not. DILL had a lot of uses the last few months. While at the same time nothing has been dropping in Cstore. Last thing was what?? Racing Uniform?? Or maybe the S1 Admiral uniform. No big Oddys and the Vesta-class ship did not pop for people as much as other ships like the oddy. So Zen is not so hot at the moment.. That could change! Throw out a Voyager Int or TNG Enterprise INT or maybe a new lock box ship you will then see Zen raise on the exchange.

    Let us see what happens when they introduce the Andorian Escort, unless Cryptic puts it in the Lobi store or a Lockbox, both are possible.
    StarTrekIronMan.jpg
  • walshicuswalshicus Member Posts: 1,314 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Box of Fleet Marks - 50 Zen for 200 Marks. That'd do the trick...
    http://mmo-economics.com - analysing the economic interactions in MMOs.
  • stark2kstark2k Member Posts: 1,467 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    walshicus wrote: »
    Box of Fleet Marks - 50 Zen for 200 Marks. That'd do the trick...

    I'll buy those as if they were hotcakes - Fleet Marks are hard to come by without excessive grinding and repetiveness.

    and we all know we need those more than any other type of Mark. The current Fleet Mark events utterly suck compared to the Omega Mark Farming machine.
    StarTrekIronMan.jpg
  • twg042370twg042370 Member Posts: 2,312 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Being able to turn fleet marks into dilithium... that'd do it.
    <3
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  • khamseenairkhamseenair Member Posts: 2,640 Bug Hunter
    edited January 2013
    You cannot trade it below 25:1, if you put your pointer over the appropriate field you will see a tool tip that tells you this. Before S7 this was set to 50:1 so they obviosuly expected it to drop. There is an upper limit of 500:1.

    It was changed to 25:1 with season 6, probably due to those massive sinks they call Starbases being introduced.
    Join date is wrong, I've actually been around since STO Beta.
    True alters don't have a "main". Account wide unlocks for all unique event rewards!!
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Welcome to the mid 80's!!

    85 - a great year - the first back to the future came out!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Rngy90Q14
  • whamhammer1whamhammer1 Member Posts: 2,290 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    That's not how the economy works. Especially not simulated faucet/drain economies.

    The market situation will never reverse unless either:
    - Cryptic raises Zen prices.
    or
    - Zen becomes more usefull/essential than dilithium (again).

    Actually, it is how some economies work. Economies are based off of "utils" that dictate demand for a product, in this case a commodity. Right now Dilithium's "util" ratio is higher per Zen than they have been almost since the inception of the exchange system. People are willing to forgo their possession of Zen at a greater rate than they have in the past.

    The greater util ratio value of dilithium put pressure on the demand of it that Zen sellers are willing to accept the aggregate value loss of their Zen as they are still supplying it.Once the value of Zen drops below a point that the suppliers of Zen are not willing to bear, the supply will shrink (why offer a product that isn't giving you a valid amount of return?), putting pressure for the exchange rate values to change upward.

    Pressure can also happen in other ways:

    Managed measures
    -Cryptic raises Zen prices. (as you have said)

    -Cryptic decreases the amount of Dilithium needed for Starbase and Reputation missions as well as related equipment. (similar to your second conclusion)

    -Cryptic increases Dilithium rewards (not so likely)

    Demand driven measures:
    -More fleets complete their Tier 5 starbases and reputation missions and get their desired equipment. (soon to be more likely in higher population fleets)
    -Fleet members lose interest in said missions/equipment (less likely)
    -More people become more proficient at earning dilithium (possible, there are several ways to earn that many have not likely noticed if they've primarily done the doff grind stfs for dil')
    -More users join larger, more efficient fleets, also reducing demand for dilithium

    There are plenty more ways, but these are the more likely ways it can happen.
  • khamseenairkhamseenair Member Posts: 2,640 Bug Hunter
    edited January 2013
    Pressure can also happen in other ways:

    Managed measures
    -Cryptic raises Zen prices. (as you have said)

    Don't give them ideas like that, in Europe, we're already paying through the nose for Zen.
    Join date is wrong, I've actually been around since STO Beta.
    True alters don't have a "main". Account wide unlocks for all unique event rewards!!
  • whamhammer1whamhammer1 Member Posts: 2,290 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    THAT is the real question.

    I'll admit, I was a Dil buyer (or Zen seller) because I saw more value for Dilithium stuff/projects than what was on the C-Store. But once the Price hit 100:1 I stopped selling Zen. Maybe I just like that ratio because it's eaier to calculate. ;) Now I'm holding onto Zen for ... something in the future. Maybe I'll give Champions a try?

    If several people are simply selling Zen to get Dilithium regardless of exchange rate (as long as they get more Dilithium quicker than getting it themselves) ... then they are not helping anyone other than themselves (and that's a stretch). Which is greedy.

    Then again ... for someone who sells Zen not caring for value - Dilithium is just code.

    How is that "greedy" and what exactly is "greed" in your mind? People throw around the catchphrase "reed" too easily these days for it to maintain a value. A person has a commodity that they are willing to trade for another at a certain rate. It is possible that several people haven't played for years and have accumulated 10k+ Zen , others may have bought Zen when it was on sale (is that greedy too?) and have decided to use it to finish their starbase missions or buy equipment from starbases. They are willing to forgo Zen for the time needed to earn dilithium. Some people value time more than a few dollars it costs to buy Zen (I am not one of them, but i can understand).

    Just because you hold a certain value for a certain commodity that others don't doesn't make them "greedy" or "not helping anyone other than themselves ". This is a game, and they are getting out of it what they are willing to put in.

    It's not their job, or mine or anyone else's to satisfy you and make you feel like they/we/I are helping you or other people, unless that is what makes they/we/I happy. Yours and others concern with what other people are willing to spend/do for their satisfaction in a game because of a games exchange rate is what "greed" is, you want them to change for you (and others who think like you), THAT is the most self-serving action one can have.
  • whamhammer1whamhammer1 Member Posts: 2,290 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Don't give them ideas like that, in Europe, we're already paying through the nose for Zen.

    I understand, I am just analyzing the possibilities.

    BTW, the person who I was responding to put it up first:)
  • r37r37 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I will not spend more money on Z ships than I already am, and I certainly won't be converting Z into dil either. On the bright side when it finally hits rock bottom I'll be able to pick up the Vesta pack in two weeks of Dil grind, and half that for the $25 ships.

    Needless to say, Cryptic either gets involved, or they will start losing money on the Z ships, which just means more lock-boxes :rolleyes:
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • whamhammer1whamhammer1 Member Posts: 2,290 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Welcome to the mid 80's!!

    85 - a great year - the first back to the future came out!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Rngy90Q14

    What does this have to do with anything?
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    How about some FINES
    payable only in Zen

    for people who use exploits (like two shields) or blatently damage the game (Fleet raiders) or are generally naughty (like beaming into the other factions base and killing civilians)
    Live long and Prosper
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    What does this have to do with anything?

    It's a fun way to list the new low price hit!! 85/1 was that low - so I post a song from 1985
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