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Dilthium HAS Officially crashed

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  • reimu#1706 reimu Member Posts: 82 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I miss the old Z Value ..... this days i have to actually earn my dill such a headache :D before i could just Zen my way to a good supply ;)
  • diogene0diogene0 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    darkjeff wrote: »
    I don't think this is true. It's relatively easy to rack up 8k ore, which is an already existing cap on supply.

    Actually, I would argue that they do because they have either no concept of how the market works, or are so impatient they'll accept below market price.

    While I can't be certain, I'm fairly sure the Dil Exchange works just like the item Exchange, where it's LIFO. If you list something at the same price as everyone else, you're still at the top of the stack when someone purchases. LIFO is important because it allows market prices to actually reach an equilibrium based on demand rather on impatience. The concept of equilibrium prices reflecting the value of a good relies on rational buys and sellers. What we're seeing in Zen is people either being extremely impatient (not giving it a day or two) or not understanding how it works (thinking they need to post a lower price (Dil) to sell).

    I post Zen at 1 higher Dil than current, and it's usually sold in a day. Suppliers are undercutting the market price, and doing it in such a quantity that buyers can't buy fast enough to keep up. When they go to sleep and stop that nonsense the prices will rise up slightly as the buyers gobble up the underpriced Zen.

    It has nothing to do with patience. It's trying to sell your stuff before the prices reach the floor. It's how it works, and some people have to sell their zen to make their purchases. I won't blame them to try to do it. People who undercut prices from 101 to 100 were right when you consider that the prices reached 90 two weeks later. And people who undercut the price now are still right, if they expect the prices to fall even more.

    Really patience is a nonsense in economy. It's just people expecting given events. They may be right, and then they win (like those who undercutted early), they may be wrong and then they'll suffer a little loss. Nothing critical though. It's just a game.

    Anyway, dilithium is still free if you play the game. Even at 1:50 or 1:25 it's still extremely profitable to make extra hours at work instead of farming on STO, if you want to use your time efficiently instead of just having fun playing a game.
    Lenny Barre, lvl 60 DC. 18k.
    God, lvl 60 CW. 17k.
  • allocaterallocater Member Posts: 289 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    So true, if the zen-seller could somehow organize themselves, they could totally form a cartel and keep the price at 100. Every dil-seller would still give dil to them even at 100.

    Problem is they need to organize and coordinate, which is pretty hard. Problem is also, to form such a cartel, they need 50,000,000 dilithium or more. Where they are gonna get that? They are zen-sellers and have no dil, and if they have dil, they instantly use it :cool:

    (On the other hand, the dil-seller could do the same, they need 500,000 zen, which they probably stockpiled by now. I know I have 5000zen stockpiled, so call me maybe. Then we bring the price down to 80 and keep it there with our excess zen, meanwhile selling all our dil at awesome 80, and with the profits we maintain our cartel even longer, muahahaha)
  • kiralynkiralyn Member Posts: 1,576 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    diogene0 wrote: »
    It has nothing to do with patience. It's trying to sell your stuff before the prices reach the floor. It's how it works, and some people have to sell their zen to make their purchases. I won't blame them to try to do it. People who undercut prices from 101 to 100 were right when you consider that the prices reached 90 two weeks later. And people who undercut the price now are still right, if they expect the prices to fall even more.


    But isn't that self-fulfilling, since the price is only dropping because people undercut?
  • jnohdjnohd Member Posts: 5 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I stand by my initial prediction that unless Cryptic steps in and either directly sells Dilithium on the C-Store (thus setting the bottom price) or sells tokens for additional refinement in 1 day (temporary device/item that converts 1k ore) thus indirectly influencing the market, then there will only be freemarket piracy - an unregulated market is a market run by the rich, for the rich, at the expense of the not-rich. Be it cash-rich, Zen-rich, Dilithium-rich or time-rich.
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  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    jnohd wrote: »
    I stand by my initial prediction that unless Cryptic steps in and either directly sells Dilithium on the C-Store (thus setting the bottom price) or sells tokens for additional refinement in 1 day (temporary device/item that converts 1k ore) thus indirectly influencing the market, then there will only be freemarket piracy - an unregulated market is a market run by the rich, for the rich, at the expense of the not-rich. Be it cash-rich, Zen-rich, Dilithium-rich or time-rich.

    But you can choose to be one of these: Dilithium rich. Just hoard the stuff. If you're in a fleet that demands all your dil, your fleet is too impatient or too small. And then you just have to play the game. And level any alts through Foundry missions and dailies.
  • diogene0diogene0 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    kiralyn wrote: »
    But isn't that self-fulfilling, since the price is only dropping because people undercut?

    Not this time, because there are really surpluses of zen and a high demand for dil. It's misunderstanding what self fulfilling expectations mean. There are facts behind that: stocks, demand, offer. It's not just speculation. And the fact that of course dilithium and zen have fixed in game values, which doesn't help to make the market fluid (people can hoard dil or zen safely).
    Lenny Barre, lvl 60 DC. 18k.
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  • darkjeffdarkjeff Member Posts: 2,590 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I maintain that it's either ignorance or impatience.

    The problem is a combination of people not understanding LIFO and thinking that their Zen won't sell at all, and people who drop their prices if it doesn't sell within a short amount of time.

    We can say with absolute certainty that there are plenty of people ignorant of LIFO, there's plenty of items on the Exchange that needlessly undercut by 1 EC in a pointless attempt to be at the top of the list.

    Prices should only drop in response to demand - nobody will buy within X amount of time, so people lower prices. That's how it works in real-world products because other than gas, prices tend to be inflexible (price changes incurs costs). We can see that the equilibrium price it not lower than current, because when prices were at the 102 to 100 mark, I posted at 102 and it sold overnight. If the equilibrium price was lower, then it should never have risen that high in one night. The demand was high enough to drive prices back up.

    Addendum:
    I also have to note there was external pressure driving down Zen value - the Zen sale allowed for an influx with Zen, while there still isn't much to do with Zen. Perhaps if the future 8 ships are Zen-only, prices will go back up.
  • diogene0diogene0 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    darkjeff wrote: »
    I maintain that it's either ignorance or impatience.

    The problem is a combination of people not understanding LIFO and thinking that their Zen won't sell at all, and people who drop their prices if it doesn't sell within a short amount of time.

    We can say with absolute certainty that there are plenty of people ignorant of LIFO, there's plenty of items on the Exchange that needlessly undercut by 1 EC in a pointless attempt to be at the top of the list.

    Prices should only drop in response to demand - nobody will buy within X amount of time, so people lower prices. That's how it works in real-world products because other than gas, prices tend to be inflexible (price changes incurs costs). We can see that the equilibrium price it not lower than current, because when prices were at the 102 to 100 mark, I posted at 102 and it sold overnight. If the equilibrium price was lower, then it should never have risen that high in one night. The demand was high enough to drive prices back up.

    Addendum:
    I also have to note there was external pressure driving down Zen value - the Zen sale allowed for an influx with Zen, while there still isn't much to do with Zen. Perhaps if the future 8 ships are Zen-only, prices will go back up.

    You're talking about a cartel or some sort of gang to rip off dil farmers. While i'm not opposed to the idea (i don't mind, i have both, zens and tons of uneeded dil), it can't work. Just let the prices drop until some good c-store addition or a new lockbox comes. It won't change your life, and in the meantime, if it's "too expensive"for you don't use the market and play the game. :P

    Because the best way to make the prices rise again is not to use the market at all, except to buy zens with dil.
    Lenny Barre, lvl 60 DC. 18k.
    God, lvl 60 CW. 17k.
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    anyone undercutting is a FOOL
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  • interestedguyinterestedguy Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    darkjeff wrote: »
    It's relatively easy to rack up 8k ore, which is an already existing cap on supply.

    I think saying relatively here is completely wrong. It is relatively much more difficult to get dilithium because of the loss of console clickie missions. If you have 20 alts, you can get 28800k dilithium (20*1440) in maybe 30 to 40 minutes depending on how fast you are at switching characters. Now it will take you at least 10 minutes a character to get around that much dilithium, which is doing the infected space or one of the faster Investigate officer report missions. FYI, 20*10 minutes equals 3 hours and 20 minutes, which is nearly 7 times as long.

    It is still easy to get dilithium, but not relative to what it was before.

    I believe that is the biggest reason for the dramatic change in the dil-zen prices, though the increased demand is also a big issue.
  • kiralynkiralyn Member Posts: 1,576 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    edit: nm

    .............
  • twg042370twg042370 Member Posts: 2,312 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I know what you are saying, as you know what I was saying. I can just imagine that if the situation was in reverse, the complainers would be defenders because it is to their advantage. I wasn't literally asking for proof of their stance previously, just pointing out the possible irony.

    And I still maintain that if you want to rub their faces in it, you have my support.
    <3
  • benitolaforgebenitolaforge Member Posts: 7 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    ey, im away from my computer, care to tell me the current price of zen??

    when do you think is gonna reach the minimum?? im savin up all my dilthium to get 2500 zen just at the right moment
  • gavinrunebladegavinruneblade Member Posts: 3,894 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    darkjeff wrote: »
    The concept of equilibrium prices reflecting the value of a good relies on rational buys and sellers. What we're seeing in Zen is people either being extremely impatient (not giving it a day or two) or not understanding how it works (thinking they need to post a lower price (Dil) to sell).

    I post Zen at 1 higher Dil than current, and it's usually sold in a day. Suppliers are undercutting the market price, and doing it in such a quantity that buyers can't buy fast enough to keep up. When they go to sleep and stop that nonsense the prices will rise up slightly as the buyers gobble up the underpriced Zen.
    I don't think this can be it because the impatient person can get the sale virtually instantly if they post at current price.

    If we take a hypothetical example where there's 100 zen for sale asking 90 dil/zen and literally no other bids or sales on the exchange at all. If I post 90 dil asking for 1 zen my purchase happens instantly. If I post 91 or 89 I have to wait. So the impatient person can get their instant gratification whenever they want (assuming the market isn't empty).

    What I do is always price 1 below the lowest or one above the highest depending on whether I'm buying or selling. I price at 89 instead of 90 because I want that fraction of a penny more zen and I know that it will move fast enough. If the top is 90 I'll buy at 91 because I want that one extra dil and I know it will move fast enough.

    I suspect a lot of people are doing the same.
  • kalvorax#3775 kalvorax Member Posts: 1,663 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    ey, im away from my computer, care to tell me the current price of zen??

    when do you think is gonna reach the minimum?? im savin up all my dilthium to get 2500 zen just at the right moment

    as of right now its 88 and 89 per zen (it keeps jumping between the two due to zen sales lol)
  • theroyalfamilytheroyalfamily Member Posts: 300 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Y'all be thinking the dil exchange is like a normal exchange (like The Exchange). But it's not. It's more Forex than a regular market. It's still based on supply and demand - but that's ALL it's based on. Just buying and selling. No pricing, like on The Exchange. Sure, you could set what you're willing to pay/sell at, but that will just wait until the price reaches what you set. Unlike the Exchange, you're not buying or selling from anyone - it just goes into one big pot, all sorts of formulas and magic are worked, and out comes what you want.

    Some examples (that I actually tested, and then complained on the forum about because I assumed it was a standard market, and my complaints were addressed by explanation by a dev):

    Let's say the D:Z ratio was 160:1, like it was a little while ago. If I was going to buy Z, but I was cheap and thought that was too much, I could set my price to, say, 155. I would not get any Z until the price reached 155. But if I were generous, and set my price to 165 to give some bloke a few extra D, I would only be charged, in the process, the 160, and get a refund of 5D, instantly. Likewise, if I were buying D (with the same price), and wanted to be a cheap jerk and charge 165 for my Z, I would not get an exchange until the price reached 165; however, if I wanted to undercut and set my sell price as 155, I would still get 160D for my 1Z.

    The reason I was given was, if you were dead set on a certain (more advantageous) price, you could have it, you'd just have to wait (and maybe it would never come). But you also wouldn't get screwed, not getting current fair market value.
  • skyranger1414skyranger1414 Member Posts: 1,785 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    So where is all the Zen being bought by the D-sellers going?

    That at least, I can answer. In the last few weeks I've purchased a Regent, the Academy costume, keys to sell on the exchange to get 7 fleet modules, etc. I'm waiting to get my Zen to 7000 (a few days at most) before getting the DS9 pack, because why not, right? Also, I'll need a name change for my main eventually.

    There's a few odds and ends I want to get for various alts and whatnot, and with the good exchange rate I hardly feel it. You know, I was dubious about Cryptic killing off the clickies, but I can;t say it hasn't been great for me. Its not a money issue, I just decided t get stuff without spending RL cash as a sort of challenge. Adding a layer of complexity to the game to keep it fresh and interesting. Fortunately the STO economy is pretty easy to get into for an econ noob like me!
  • interestedguyinterestedguy Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    Y'all be thinking the dil exchange is like a normal exchange (like The Exchange). But it's not. It's more Forex than a regular market. It's still based on supply and demand - but that's ALL it's based on. Just buying and selling. No pricing, like on The Exchange. Sure, you could set what you're willing to pay/sell at, but that will just wait until the price reaches what you set. Unlike the Exchange, you're not buying or selling from anyone - it just goes into one big pot, all sorts of formulas and magic are worked, and out comes what you want.

    Some examples (that I actually tested, and then complained on the forum about because I assumed it was a standard market, and my complaints were addressed by explanation by a dev):

    Let's say the D:Z ratio was 160:1, like it was a little while ago. If I was going to buy Z, but I was cheap and thought that was too much, I could set my price to, say, 155. I would not get any Z until the price reached 155. But if I were generous, and set my price to 165 to give some bloke a few extra D, I would only be charged, in the process, the 160, and get a refund of 5D, instantly. Likewise, if I were buying D (with the same price), and wanted to be a cheap jerk and charge 165 for my Z, I would not get an exchange until the price reached 165; however, if I wanted to undercut and set my sell price as 155, I would still get 160D for my 1Z.

    The reason I was given was, if you were dead set on a certain (more advantageous) price, you could have it, you'd just have to wait (and maybe it would never come). But you also wouldn't get screwed, not getting current fair market value.

    Thanks for posting this, it helps explain how the dil zen exchange works.
  • theultimatextheultimatex Member Posts: 489 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I am needing 2 MILLION refined Dilthium to just get my fleet projects over with. Is there any way yet I can just get this from a player through trading or selling items in exchange, or do I need to spend over $20 in Zen PER 200K of Dilth like I did last year to Cryptic?

    If not, then I guess I will just leave those projects not done until this time next year. At least I have Morn, and open window and the Breen ship on my starbase. :rolleyes:
  • theultimatextheultimatex Member Posts: 489 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    diogene0 wrote: »
    I'm still willing to keep my 1M+ refined dilithium. There's nothing worth all this in the c-store.

    Yeah I am with Stark2K. I could use roughly half of that 1 MIL Dil to help finish off my Starbase projects.
  • stark2kstark2k Member Posts: 1,467 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    .... No Zen exists that was not bought by players in some way. And if someone says that the stipend points are free I will ask you how you got any without buying some form of subscription.

    *Assuming Cryptic is honest and does not introduce orders into the market artificially. I will readily question their honesty, but such manipulation has few upsides for them.

    The Market is being manipulated, there is no doubt about it.

    The question is, is it being done artificially? or are there a selective few players doing it?

    I am beginning to believe that it is artificially manipulated - Especially when you see huge chunks of Zen being sold. I have a gut feeling that is is purposely being done.

    If it was playerbase, maybe then Cryptic would have place a Zen limit of sort or place certain safeguards, assuming the market is going the direction they did not want.

    However; thats purely not the case here.

    Honestly I really believe the huge zen chunks are artificial
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  • drkfrontiersdrkfrontiers Member Posts: 2,477 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I'm gonna allege you didn't understand what you were saying.

    A low value of Zen (what we have now) is the result of people being willing to sell their Zen (that someone purchased at some point) for a lower amount of dilithium than previously, since dilithium increased in value.
    The only ones getting "rich" is people buying Zen with dilithium: which doesn't make those people rich; it only serves Cryptic.

    The people buying/hoarding Zen now or at any low point - if the market was to "crash" (which is a totally mute point) - would EARN loads of dilithium.

    The loser would be the ones who decided to simply hoard their dilithium, instead of using it.

    Your original argument is totally mixed up.

    How does having more zen which was not purchased with real money serve Cryptic??? (a.k.a ingame dili. rewards traded for zen.) vs (zen purchased to buy dili.)

    All I was trying to say, was that prior to this people could buy zen and received a fair amount of dili. in exchange for it. That is no longer the case, and yes, someone is getting rich off this. If you honestly think people are not playing the zen market knowing fully well that there is hyper-dilithium deflation (i.e. the dili. value to zen), then I would not be the one with the mixed-up argument....

    Yes, I know exactly what I am talking about.

    I am talking about the drive to push the price of zen into the ground so that people can quickly capitalize by trading large volumes of dilithium for zen.

    I personally believe that there is a segment of the "market" that is undercutting the price of dilithium for that very reason, and thereby TRIBBLE people that need dilithium in the process.

    Numerous posts in this very thread admit to doing exactly that. There's my POC. What's yours?
  • nicha0nicha0 Member Posts: 1,456 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    When I said they reduced the supply of dilithium, I meant in the large picture, not on your main character.

    The console clicking alts supplied a HUGE amount of dilithium to the exchange, that is what was keeping the rates where they were, they removed that source and then increased demand. 8k per day is trivial to obtain, still the average player doesn't reach it, they also haven't reached tier 5, and don't grind elite stfs. Stop looking at the 5% of the playerbase and look at 100% to see how the economy works.
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  • syberghostsyberghost Member Posts: 1,711 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I think given that the market has fallen to 87 dilithium/zen as of the most recent viewing, it's time Cryptic seriously considers escalating the increase or removal of the dilithium cap. About 12 months ago the market had it 490 dilithium/CP (which translates to 392 dilithium/zen). Since then zen has lost 78% of its value, with a very sudden downward trend with Season 7 (its down ~30% over the last 6 weeks).

    Why? The lower that number is, the better for Cryptic, as long as it doesn't get so low that people stop buying Zen. If it does, the price will go up anyway.

    The purpose of the Exchange is to entice people to spend money to obtain Dilithium. The current exchange rate means it takes more money to get a given amount of Dilithium. The only way a higher rate would benefit Cryptic would be if it disproportionately increased Zen sales.
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  • squidheadjaxsquidheadjax Member Posts: 54 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    stark2k wrote: »
    The Market is being manipulated, there is no doubt about it.

    The question is, is it being done artificially? or are there a selective few players doing it?

    I am beginning to believe that it is artificially manipulated - Especially when you see huge chunks of Zen being sold. I have a gut feeling that is is purposely being done.

    If it was playerbase, maybe then Cryptic would have place a Zen limit of sort or place certain safeguards, assuming the market is going the direction they did not want.

    However; thats purely not the case here.

    Honestly I really believe the huge zen chunks are artificial

    It would be an extremely delicate dance to balance the injected Zen in that case wih the increased income from actual payers buying Dilithium more expensively. PWE might have someone capable of the necessary pulse-reading, but Cryptic has never demonstrated itself to be more capable of subtlety or nuance than Shatner on a bender.
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  • stirling191stirling191 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    syberghost wrote: »
    Why? The lower that number is, the better for Cryptic, as long as it doesn't get so low that people stop buying Zen. If it does, the price will go up anyway.

    The purpose of the Exchange is to entice people to spend money to obtain Dilithium. The current exchange rate means it takes more money to get a given amount of Dilithium. The only way a higher rate would benefit Cryptic would be if it disproportionately increased Zen sales.

    Nail, meet head.

    Cryptic/PWE has a ton to gain by keeping dilithium costs (IE how much you need to spend on projects and gear) stupidly high, while at the same time having a low zen to dilith exchange rate. This way, people are coerced into buying zen to avoid the constantly increasing, and increasingly stupid, dilithium sinks built into everything that's being released as "content".

    They're making money hand over fist with this, and you had better believe it's only going to get worse.
  • kiralynkiralyn Member Posts: 1,576 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    I am needing 2 MILLION refined Dilthium to just get my fleet projects over with. Is there any way yet I can just get this from a player through trading or selling items in exchange, or do I need to spend over $20 in Zen PER 200K of Dilth like I did last year to Cryptic?

    Well, you could do it over time, instead of having to have it now. Or you could have your fleetmates do more to help you, so that you don't feel that just you "need" 2 mil Dil.
    All I was trying to say, was that prior to this people could buy zen and received a fair amount of dili. in exchange for it.


    The thing is, who determines what a "fair" price is? That's the problem with the title of this thread from the beginning..... it should be "Dilithium Has Officially Dropped Below What I'm Willing To Pay For It"

    Not liking a price, doesn't necessarily make it unfair, or broken. (Perspective also matters - I'm sure that Dil sellers find prices around 100 dil per zen to be much more "fair" to them than prices at 300:1)




    ...in other news, this morning's market seems to be trying to go back up. More zen piling up at 90, less at 89. Perhaps more zen sellers are realizing that they don't need to hurt themselves by driving the price down so far?


    Today's random thought -
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  • darkjeffdarkjeff Member Posts: 2,590 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    kiralyn wrote: »
    The thing is, who determines what a "fair" price is?
    We have certain goods bought with Zen, and we have goods bought with Dil. We can judge how much a "fair" price of Dil is by looking at how much we think the set-price Dil products should be worth.

    For comparison, a Fleet ship (4 modules) costs $20.00, and the best C Store ships cost $25.00.

    T5 ships cost 120,000 Dil
    85:1 - $14.11
    100:1 - $12.00
    120:1 - $10.00
    240:1 - $5.00
    300:1 - $4.00

    Are you willing to pay $14.11 for a Star Cruiser or Patrol Escort, when a Fleet ship only costs $20.00?
    Would you pay $14.11 for a Patrol Escort when a Tactical Escort Retrofit (Defiant) costs $20.00?
    The former were all free, too.

    So long as I'm doing this:
    Mk XII M.A.C.O. space set - 102,000 Dil total
    85:1 - $12.00
    100:1 - $10.20
    120:1 - $8.50
    240:1 - $4.25
    300:1 - $3.40
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited January 2013
    darkjeff wrote: »
    We have certain goods bought with Zen, and we have goods bought with Dil. We can judge how much a "fair" price of Dil is by looking at how much we think the set-price Dil products should be worth.

    A Fleet ship (4 modules) costs $20.00, and the best C Store ships cost $25.00.

    T5 ships cost 120,000 Dil
    85:1 - $14.11
    100:1 - $12.00
    120:1 - $10.00
    240:1 - $5.00
    300:1 - $4.00

    Are you willing to pay $14.11 for a Star Cruiser or Patrol Escort, when a Fleet ship only costs $20.00?
    Would you pay $14.11 for a Patrol Escort when a Tactical Escort Retrofit (Defiant) costs $20.00?
    The former were all free, too.

    So long as I'm doing this:
    Mk XII M.A.C.O. space set - 102,000 Dil total
    85:1 - $12.00
    100:1 - $10.20
    120:1 - $8.50
    240:1 - $4.25
    300:1 - $3.40

    I think it starts to get crazy expensive if you load out a 8 weapon ship with fleet/rep weapons - total dollar cost per ship must be around $70 US
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