Say you have 100 people, selling a total of 200k zen for sale at 90. If they just sit back and wait, each person's chunk of it will sell.
But you have one or two guys saying "Hey, it'll take forever for my zen to sell, lemme undercut!"
So now, there's 190k at 90dil and 10k at 89. Most of the other 100 think "eh, that'll go fast and then it'll be back to selling ours." But a handful panic and jump down to the new price.
Which puts it at 150k @ 90, 50k @ 89. Now more of the people at 90 panic, because it doesn't look like that'll clear out fast. They'll never get their dil now! AAAAA!
More people jump ship to 89. And more. And more. So now you have 99 people selling 190k zen @ 89. And one patient dude still selling his at 90.
...and the impatient dude says "Hey, my zen will take forever to sell at this price! Undercut!"
Repeat.
So, who's the "selfish and greedy" one? The dil sellers, who're willing to sell at the price the zen people offer. Or the impatient dude who had to undercut to make sure that his zen sold before yours?
Just one possible scenario. /shrug
at 87 there is 270,000 zen selling and at 85 there is 370,000 thousand Zen buying
these are big numbers
And math can make them small. If there's 100 zen sellers, that's 2700 zen each on average ($27). If there's 100 dil sellers, that's 3700 zen each (or 3700x85= 314k dil. 31k per person. or just four days of dil farming.)
And that's with only 100 people on each side. Bet it's more. (Yes, there's probably a handful of whales in that mix. But it's still pretty easy to come up with those "huge" numbers via the power of multiplication. :P)
People say no Cryptic is not in the market - or no big players are: but this is very strange
at 87 there is $2.6 million US dollars selling and at 85 there is $3.7 million US dollars buying
these are big numbers
ok I will go get my tinfoil hat now.
Forget the tinfoil hat. I think you need to get a math lesson or a proper calculator.
This morning there is 288,345 Zen available to buy at 87 Dil per Zen. At 100 Zen to 1 US Dollar, that means there is $2,883 in the market at that price. Very far from the $2.6 million.
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Forget the tinfoil hat. I think you need to get a math lesson or a proper calculator.
This morning there is 288,345 Zen available to buy at 87 Dil per Zen. At 100 Zen to 1 US Dollar, that means there is $2,883 in the market at that price. Very far from the $2.6 million.
I corrected it a few minutes later - after i got my morning coffee - 5 hrs sleep and I don't think too clearly.
There are a lot of fixes for the problem, none need to be drastic but the current business model Cryptic is pulling doesn't seem to support much interest in the dilithium exchange.
Supply and Demand
Dilithium
They reduced dilithium supply by eliminating console clicking and the best paying missions, this removed dilithium was mostly being put into the exchange
They increased demand by adding embassy projects
They increased demand by adding massive dilithium costs to every piece of gear in the reputation system
Zen
A lack of any new items in the C store means the demand for zen is at an all time low, high level players have bought what they want, the rest stipends or budgeted zen has no place to go. Effectively reducing average zen sinks.
Fixes
Any change can't be drastic, you can't remove the dilithium cap daily, it would be like breaking a dam.
The first fix should be to actually put stuff in the C store again, the revenue system based almost entirely on gambling only works for some part of the population. They need to engage the others, people will pay for more outfits, trait respecs or other quality of life boosts.
Increasing demand for zen won't be enough to sustain the market because the dilithium demand is so excessive. A 50% cap increase might be enough to help, but even with that I'm not sure, but it would be a step. Decreasing dilithium costs for items/projects would be nice, but it has the end effect of making anyone who has already bought items feel ripped off.
Stipend? How can someone not spend it in inventory space, a new ship, or some other TRIBBLE? I always find some use to it, turning it into dilithium would be a waste. :eek:
I have been maxed out in the "TRIBBLE" category for quite some time (as probably are many others). I have 5 toons and still don't need every ship and other stuff they offer in the cstore. Keep in mind that there are some "lifers" who went a way for a bit and have come back with potentially 10k in Zen. Also, back when dilithium wasn't as useful and the main purpos was to use it for Zen conversion. There a plenty of people who went nuts (N-V-T-S... NUTS!) in getting dil to convert to Zen.
Zen Sellers.. You really dont have to keep lowering your prices, People will pay 100 Dil per Zen. This lowering the price every few hours is not needed. I see people listing Zen for 80 now. That is not needed and you are only ripping yourself off. So lets start climbing back up that ladder and get it back to at least 100.
You are right, they don't have to. They do because they are willing to bear the the market price for dilithium. You or I might not agree with it, but they are allowed to do so. Remember when people were paying 300+ dil for Zen? The same thing could be said for the dil' suppliers then. It's an economic issue, economies deal with scarcity. The Zen suppl;iers are willing to accept the "scarcity" of dil' in a way that give up more Zen for mass dil' than you or I are willing to accept.
There are a lot of fixes for the problem, none need to be drastic but the current business model Cryptic is pulling doesn't seem to support much interest in the dilithium exchange.
Supply and Demand
Dilithium
They reduced dilithium supply by eliminating console clicking and the best paying missions, this removed dilithium was mostly being put into the exchange
They increased demand by adding embassy projects
They increased demand by adding massive dilithium costs to every piece of gear in the reputation system
You are aware that it still isn't very hard to get over 8k dil a day still, right? Do a few Borg STF's and do the mission that converts 50 Omega marks to 500 dil', it takes less than a minute to receive the dil' and do the mission over again. Same with Romulan marks.
You can still grind SIX stfs to get dilithium (up from 3 in the past), PLUS the mining event, PLUS the DOFF missions, PLUS the Contraband turn in mission.
Zen
A lack of any new items in the C store means the demand for zen is at an all time low, high level players have bought what they want, the rest stipends or budgeted zen has no place to go. Effectively reducing average zen sinks.
Fixes
Any change can't be drastic, you can't remove the dilithium cap daily, it would be like breaking a dam.
The first fix should be to actually put stuff in the C store again, the revenue system based almost entirely on gambling only works for some part of the population. They need to engage the others, people will pay for more outfits, trait respecs or other quality of life boosts.
Increasing demand for zen won't be enough to sustain the market because the dilithium demand is so excessive. A 50% cap increase might be enough to help, but even with that I'm not sure, but it would be a step. Decreasing dilithium costs for items/projects would be nice, but it has the end effect of making anyone who has already bought items feel ripped off.
Please read my previous post from Sunday on the economics of the situation, there are plenty of other options as well as an explanation how the market might make its OWN corrections.
I dunno, I'm broke this month. The current dil prices allow me to buy ZEN and not have to spend a dime. Probably going to use it for basic account services (EC cap increase since I'm going to hit the silver cap soon if I don't, extra character slots, etc...)
Might splurge next month (it's my birthday) for a ship if I'm inclined....
Nothing is wrong with that, I am doing pretty much the same thing as well. I had plenty of dil in reserve (as well as 4k+ in Zen) and decided to blow 7k Zen on master keys for lock boxes that I piled up in order to get Lobi and rewards (mostly the duty officer packs). I jumped my fleets progress in SB missions markedly. With the exchange rate as it is, I'm already back up to 1,600 Zen in three days of effort. Some day the value of Zen will go up and I won't be able to do that. And I am sure that several Zen suppliers did advance their SB progress as well.
Why not? If the stipend is truly sustaining the decline/current prices (I don't think so - it's a factor, sure, but I doubt it's a main one), the prices would be relatively stable; the amount of zen from stipends is not going to change much, as it would only go down if people cancel their gold accounts, or delete/stop playing with their lifetime accounts.
Stipends are NOT sustaining the supply of Zen, only contributing to it. Because each player only gets 400 Zen a month, even if thousands of players put each monthly stipend in , it will only supply for a few days at best. Look at the exchange and see how much Zen is being offered at THAT moment, then multiply that value by the turnover rate (you will just have to imagine it because without an inventory database program its neigh impossibly for a player to track). I never said that stipends would sustain it.
This was also accompanied with lengthy lectures about "free market" ideology and how that state of affairs was good for everyone. Unfortunately, I don't have the inclination to go through all of the old posts about it to see if they were the same people who were later raging about the pendulum swinging wildly in the other direction. But I feel that if you want to rub some faces in it, you'll have my support.
I know what you are saying, as you know what I was saying. I can just imagine that if the situation was in reverse, the complainers would be defenders because it is to their advantage. I wasn't literally asking for proof of their stance previously, just pointing out the possible irony.
Say you have 100 people, selling a total of 200k zen for sale at 90. If they just sit back and wait, each person's chunk of it will sell.
But you have one or two guys saying "Hey, it'll take forever for my zen to sell, lemme undercut!"
So now, there's 190k at 90dil and 10k at 89. Most of the other 100 think "eh, that'll go fast and then it'll be back to selling ours." But a handful panic and jump down to the new price.
Which puts it at 150k @ 90, 50k @ 89. Now more of the people at 90 panic, because it doesn't look like that'll clear out fast. They'll never get their dil now! AAAAA!
More people jump ship to 89. And more. And more. So now you have 99 people selling 190k zen @ 89. And one patient dude still selling his at 90.
...and the impatient dude says "Hey, my zen will take forever to sell at this price! Undercut!"
Repeat.
So, who's the "selfish and greedy" one? The dil sellers, who're willing to sell at the price the zen people offer. Or the impatient dude who had to undercut to make sure that his zen sold before yours?
Just one possible scenario. /shrug
And math can make them small. If there's 100 zen sellers, that's 2700 zen each on average ($27). If there's 100 dil sellers, that's 3700 zen each (or 3700x85= 314k dil. 31k per person. or just four days of dil farming.)
And that's with only 100 people on each side. Bet it's more. (Yes, there's probably a handful of whales in that mix. But it's still pretty easy to come up with those "huge" numbers via the power of multiplication. :P)
The problem with most of this is that people don't get taught (nor understand) economics worth a darn anymore. It speaks volumes in the games and in real life as well. When people see big numbers, they automatically tune out thinking they can't understand it, when its not really that hard at all.
They reduced dilithium supply by eliminating console clicking and the best paying missions, this removed dilithium was mostly being put into the exchange
I don't think this is true. It's relatively easy to rack up 8k ore, which is an already existing cap on supply.
They do because they are willing to bear the the market price for dilithium.
Actually, I would argue that they do because they have either no concept of how the market works, or are so impatient they'll accept below market price.
While I can't be certain, I'm fairly sure the Dil Exchange works just like the item Exchange, where it's LIFO. If you list something at the same price as everyone else, you're still at the top of the stack when someone purchases. LIFO is important because it allows market prices to actually reach an equilibrium based on demand rather on impatience. The concept of equilibrium prices reflecting the value of a good relies on rational buys and sellers. What we're seeing in Zen is people either being extremely impatient (not giving it a day or two) or not understanding how it works (thinking they need to post a lower price (Dil) to sell).
I post Zen at 1 higher Dil than current, and it's usually sold in a day. Suppliers are undercutting the market price, and doing it in such a quantity that buyers can't buy fast enough to keep up. When they go to sleep and stop that nonsense the prices will rise up slightly as the buyers gobble up the underpriced Zen.
I understand, I am just analyzing the possibilities.
BTW, the person who I was responding to put it up first:)
Oh I know you were replying to somebody, I was actually just joking with you, probably should have put a 'haha' on the end so you knew that. Though it is true we here pay a fortune for Zen.
Join date is wrong, I've actually been around since STO Beta.
True alters don't have a "main". Account wide unlocks for all unique event rewards!!
It's not in the D-sellers interest to see the exchange rate increase - an increase means more work for less reward (Zen) ... much to Zen-sellers chagrin.
So, if Z-sellers must acquire Dil, regardless of the exchange rate, then that could be called "greed", but I'd wager they would call it "need".
I don't think this is true. It's relatively easy to rack up 8k ore, which is an already existing cap on supply.
Actually, I would argue that they do because they have either no concept of how the market works, or are so impatient they'll accept below market price.
While I can't be certain, I'm fairly sure the Dil Exchange works just like the item Exchange, where it's LIFO. If you list something at the same price as everyone else, you're still at the top of the stack when someone purchases. LIFO is important because it allows market prices to actually reach an equilibrium based on demand rather on impatience. The concept of equilibrium prices reflecting the value of a good relies on rational buys and sellers. What we're seeing in Zen is people either being extremely impatient (not giving it a day or two) or not understanding how it works (thinking they need to post a lower price (Dil) to sell).
I post Zen at 1 higher Dil than current, and it's usually sold in a day. Suppliers are undercutting the market price, and doing it in such a quantity that buyers can't buy fast enough to keep up. When they go to sleep and stop that nonsense the prices will rise up slightly as the buyers gobble up the underpriced Zen.
It has nothing to do with patience. It's trying to sell your stuff before the prices reach the floor. It's how it works, and some people have to sell their zen to make their purchases. I won't blame them to try to do it. People who undercut prices from 101 to 100 were right when you consider that the prices reached 90 two weeks later. And people who undercut the price now are still right, if they expect the prices to fall even more.
Really patience is a nonsense in economy. It's just people expecting given events. They may be right, and then they win (like those who undercutted early), they may be wrong and then they'll suffer a little loss. Nothing critical though. It's just a game.
Anyway, dilithium is still free if you play the game. Even at 1:50 or 1:25 it's still extremely profitable to make extra hours at work instead of farming on STO, if you want to use your time efficiently instead of just having fun playing a game.
So true, if the zen-seller could somehow organize themselves, they could totally form a cartel and keep the price at 100. Every dil-seller would still give dil to them even at 100.
Problem is they need to organize and coordinate, which is pretty hard. Problem is also, to form such a cartel, they need 50,000,000 dilithium or more. Where they are gonna get that? They are zen-sellers and have no dil, and if they have dil, they instantly use it :cool:
(On the other hand, the dil-seller could do the same, they need 500,000 zen, which they probably stockpiled by now. I know I have 5000zen stockpiled, so call me maybe. Then we bring the price down to 80 and keep it there with our excess zen, meanwhile selling all our dil at awesome 80, and with the profits we maintain our cartel even longer, muahahaha)
It has nothing to do with patience. It's trying to sell your stuff before the prices reach the floor. It's how it works, and some people have to sell their zen to make their purchases. I won't blame them to try to do it. People who undercut prices from 101 to 100 were right when you consider that the prices reached 90 two weeks later. And people who undercut the price now are still right, if they expect the prices to fall even more.
But isn't that self-fulfilling, since the price is only dropping because people undercut?
I stand by my initial prediction that unless Cryptic steps in and either directly sells Dilithium on the C-Store (thus setting the bottom price) or sells tokens for additional refinement in 1 day (temporary device/item that converts 1k ore) thus indirectly influencing the market, then there will only be freemarket piracy - an unregulated market is a market run by the rich, for the rich, at the expense of the not-rich. Be it cash-rich, Zen-rich, Dilithium-rich or time-rich.
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I stand by my initial prediction that unless Cryptic steps in and either directly sells Dilithium on the C-Store (thus setting the bottom price) or sells tokens for additional refinement in 1 day (temporary device/item that converts 1k ore) thus indirectly influencing the market, then there will only be freemarket piracy - an unregulated market is a market run by the rich, for the rich, at the expense of the not-rich. Be it cash-rich, Zen-rich, Dilithium-rich or time-rich.
But you can choose to be one of these: Dilithium rich. Just hoard the stuff. If you're in a fleet that demands all your dil, your fleet is too impatient or too small. And then you just have to play the game. And level any alts through Foundry missions and dailies.
But isn't that self-fulfilling, since the price is only dropping because people undercut?
Not this time, because there are really surpluses of zen and a high demand for dil. It's misunderstanding what self fulfilling expectations mean. There are facts behind that: stocks, demand, offer. It's not just speculation. And the fact that of course dilithium and zen have fixed in game values, which doesn't help to make the market fluid (people can hoard dil or zen safely).
I maintain that it's either ignorance or impatience.
The problem is a combination of people not understanding LIFO and thinking that their Zen won't sell at all, and people who drop their prices if it doesn't sell within a short amount of time.
We can say with absolute certainty that there are plenty of people ignorant of LIFO, there's plenty of items on the Exchange that needlessly undercut by 1 EC in a pointless attempt to be at the top of the list.
Prices should only drop in response to demand - nobody will buy within X amount of time, so people lower prices. That's how it works in real-world products because other than gas, prices tend to be inflexible (price changes incurs costs). We can see that the equilibrium price it not lower than current, because when prices were at the 102 to 100 mark, I posted at 102 and it sold overnight. If the equilibrium price was lower, then it should never have risen that high in one night. The demand was high enough to drive prices back up.
Addendum:
I also have to note there was external pressure driving down Zen value - the Zen sale allowed for an influx with Zen, while there still isn't much to do with Zen. Perhaps if the future 8 ships are Zen-only, prices will go back up.
I maintain that it's either ignorance or impatience.
The problem is a combination of people not understanding LIFO and thinking that their Zen won't sell at all, and people who drop their prices if it doesn't sell within a short amount of time.
We can say with absolute certainty that there are plenty of people ignorant of LIFO, there's plenty of items on the Exchange that needlessly undercut by 1 EC in a pointless attempt to be at the top of the list.
Prices should only drop in response to demand - nobody will buy within X amount of time, so people lower prices. That's how it works in real-world products because other than gas, prices tend to be inflexible (price changes incurs costs). We can see that the equilibrium price it not lower than current, because when prices were at the 102 to 100 mark, I posted at 102 and it sold overnight. If the equilibrium price was lower, then it should never have risen that high in one night. The demand was high enough to drive prices back up.
Addendum:
I also have to note there was external pressure driving down Zen value - the Zen sale allowed for an influx with Zen, while there still isn't much to do with Zen. Perhaps if the future 8 ships are Zen-only, prices will go back up.
You're talking about a cartel or some sort of gang to rip off dil farmers. While i'm not opposed to the idea (i don't mind, i have both, zens and tons of uneeded dil), it can't work. Just let the prices drop until some good c-store addition or a new lockbox comes. It won't change your life, and in the meantime, if it's "too expensive"for you don't use the market and play the game. :P
Because the best way to make the prices rise again is not to use the market at all, except to buy zens with dil.
It's relatively easy to rack up 8k ore, which is an already existing cap on supply.
I think saying relatively here is completely wrong. It is relatively much more difficult to get dilithium because of the loss of console clickie missions. If you have 20 alts, you can get 28800k dilithium (20*1440) in maybe 30 to 40 minutes depending on how fast you are at switching characters. Now it will take you at least 10 minutes a character to get around that much dilithium, which is doing the infected space or one of the faster Investigate officer report missions. FYI, 20*10 minutes equals 3 hours and 20 minutes, which is nearly 7 times as long.
It is still easy to get dilithium, but not relative to what it was before.
I believe that is the biggest reason for the dramatic change in the dil-zen prices, though the increased demand is also a big issue.
I know what you are saying, as you know what I was saying. I can just imagine that if the situation was in reverse, the complainers would be defenders because it is to their advantage. I wasn't literally asking for proof of their stance previously, just pointing out the possible irony.
And I still maintain that if you want to rub their faces in it, you have my support.
The concept of equilibrium prices reflecting the value of a good relies on rational buys and sellers. What we're seeing in Zen is people either being extremely impatient (not giving it a day or two) or not understanding how it works (thinking they need to post a lower price (Dil) to sell).
I post Zen at 1 higher Dil than current, and it's usually sold in a day. Suppliers are undercutting the market price, and doing it in such a quantity that buyers can't buy fast enough to keep up. When they go to sleep and stop that nonsense the prices will rise up slightly as the buyers gobble up the underpriced Zen.
I don't think this can be it because the impatient person can get the sale virtually instantly if they post at current price.
If we take a hypothetical example where there's 100 zen for sale asking 90 dil/zen and literally no other bids or sales on the exchange at all. If I post 90 dil asking for 1 zen my purchase happens instantly. If I post 91 or 89 I have to wait. So the impatient person can get their instant gratification whenever they want (assuming the market isn't empty).
What I do is always price 1 below the lowest or one above the highest depending on whether I'm buying or selling. I price at 89 instead of 90 because I want that fraction of a penny more zen and I know that it will move fast enough. If the top is 90 I'll buy at 91 because I want that one extra dil and I know it will move fast enough.
Comments
at 87 there is 270,000 zen selling and at 85 there is 370,000 thousand Zen buying
these are big numbers
ok I will go get my tinfoil hat now.
Say you have 100 people, selling a total of 200k zen for sale at 90. If they just sit back and wait, each person's chunk of it will sell.
But you have one or two guys saying "Hey, it'll take forever for my zen to sell, lemme undercut!"
So now, there's 190k at 90dil and 10k at 89. Most of the other 100 think "eh, that'll go fast and then it'll be back to selling ours." But a handful panic and jump down to the new price.
Which puts it at 150k @ 90, 50k @ 89. Now more of the people at 90 panic, because it doesn't look like that'll clear out fast. They'll never get their dil now! AAAAA!
More people jump ship to 89. And more. And more. So now you have 99 people selling 190k zen @ 89. And one patient dude still selling his at 90.
...and the impatient dude says "Hey, my zen will take forever to sell at this price! Undercut!"
Repeat.
So, who's the "selfish and greedy" one? The dil sellers, who're willing to sell at the price the zen people offer. Or the impatient dude who had to undercut to make sure that his zen sold before yours?
Just one possible scenario. /shrug
And math can make them small. If there's 100 zen sellers, that's 2700 zen each on average ($27). If there's 100 dil sellers, that's 3700 zen each (or 3700x85= 314k dil. 31k per person. or just four days of dil farming.)
And that's with only 100 people on each side. Bet it's more. (Yes, there's probably a handful of whales in that mix. But it's still pretty easy to come up with those "huge" numbers via the power of multiplication. :P)
Forget the tinfoil hat. I think you need to get a math lesson or a proper calculator.
This morning there is 288,345 Zen available to buy at 87 Dil per Zen. At 100 Zen to 1 US Dollar, that means there is $2,883 in the market at that price. Very far from the $2.6 million.
I corrected it a few minutes later - after i got my morning coffee - 5 hrs sleep and I don't think too clearly.
Supply and Demand
Dilithium
They reduced dilithium supply by eliminating console clicking and the best paying missions, this removed dilithium was mostly being put into the exchange
They increased demand by adding embassy projects
They increased demand by adding massive dilithium costs to every piece of gear in the reputation system
Zen
A lack of any new items in the C store means the demand for zen is at an all time low, high level players have bought what they want, the rest stipends or budgeted zen has no place to go. Effectively reducing average zen sinks.
Fixes
Any change can't be drastic, you can't remove the dilithium cap daily, it would be like breaking a dam.
The first fix should be to actually put stuff in the C store again, the revenue system based almost entirely on gambling only works for some part of the population. They need to engage the others, people will pay for more outfits, trait respecs or other quality of life boosts.
Increasing demand for zen won't be enough to sustain the market because the dilithium demand is so excessive. A 50% cap increase might be enough to help, but even with that I'm not sure, but it would be a step. Decreasing dilithium costs for items/projects would be nice, but it has the end effect of making anyone who has already bought items feel ripped off.
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I have been maxed out in the "TRIBBLE" category for quite some time (as probably are many others). I have 5 toons and still don't need every ship and other stuff they offer in the cstore. Keep in mind that there are some "lifers" who went a way for a bit and have come back with potentially 10k in Zen. Also, back when dilithium wasn't as useful and the main purpos was to use it for Zen conversion. There a plenty of people who went nuts (N-V-T-S... NUTS!) in getting dil to convert to Zen.
You are right, they don't have to. They do because they are willing to bear the the market price for dilithium. You or I might not agree with it, but they are allowed to do so. Remember when people were paying 300+ dil for Zen? The same thing could be said for the dil' suppliers then. It's an economic issue, economies deal with scarcity. The Zen suppl;iers are willing to accept the "scarcity" of dil' in a way that give up more Zen for mass dil' than you or I are willing to accept.
You are aware that it still isn't very hard to get over 8k dil a day still, right? Do a few Borg STF's and do the mission that converts 50 Omega marks to 500 dil', it takes less than a minute to receive the dil' and do the mission over again. Same with Romulan marks.
You can still grind SIX stfs to get dilithium (up from 3 in the past), PLUS the mining event, PLUS the DOFF missions, PLUS the Contraband turn in mission.
It's not that hard.
Please read my previous post from Sunday on the economics of the situation, there are plenty of other options as well as an explanation how the market might make its OWN corrections.
Nothing is wrong with that, I am doing pretty much the same thing as well. I had plenty of dil in reserve (as well as 4k+ in Zen) and decided to blow 7k Zen on master keys for lock boxes that I piled up in order to get Lobi and rewards (mostly the duty officer packs). I jumped my fleets progress in SB missions markedly. With the exchange rate as it is, I'm already back up to 1,600 Zen in three days of effort. Some day the value of Zen will go up and I won't be able to do that. And I am sure that several Zen suppliers did advance their SB progress as well.
Stipends are NOT sustaining the supply of Zen, only contributing to it. Because each player only gets 400 Zen a month, even if thousands of players put each monthly stipend in , it will only supply for a few days at best. Look at the exchange and see how much Zen is being offered at THAT moment, then multiply that value by the turnover rate (you will just have to imagine it because without an inventory database program its neigh impossibly for a player to track). I never said that stipends would sustain it.
I know what you are saying, as you know what I was saying. I can just imagine that if the situation was in reverse, the complainers would be defenders because it is to their advantage. I wasn't literally asking for proof of their stance previously, just pointing out the possible irony.
The problem with most of this is that people don't get taught (nor understand) economics worth a darn anymore. It speaks volumes in the games and in real life as well. When people see big numbers, they automatically tune out thinking they can't understand it, when its not really that hard at all.
Actually, I would argue that they do because they have either no concept of how the market works, or are so impatient they'll accept below market price.
While I can't be certain, I'm fairly sure the Dil Exchange works just like the item Exchange, where it's LIFO. If you list something at the same price as everyone else, you're still at the top of the stack when someone purchases. LIFO is important because it allows market prices to actually reach an equilibrium based on demand rather on impatience. The concept of equilibrium prices reflecting the value of a good relies on rational buys and sellers. What we're seeing in Zen is people either being extremely impatient (not giving it a day or two) or not understanding how it works (thinking they need to post a lower price (Dil) to sell).
I post Zen at 1 higher Dil than current, and it's usually sold in a day. Suppliers are undercutting the market price, and doing it in such a quantity that buyers can't buy fast enough to keep up. When they go to sleep and stop that nonsense the prices will rise up slightly as the buyers gobble up the underpriced Zen.
Oh I know you were replying to somebody, I was actually just joking with you, probably should have put a 'haha' on the end so you knew that. Though it is true we here pay a fortune for Zen.
So, if Z-sellers must acquire Dil, regardless of the exchange rate, then that could be called "greed", but I'd wager they would call it "need".
It has nothing to do with patience. It's trying to sell your stuff before the prices reach the floor. It's how it works, and some people have to sell their zen to make their purchases. I won't blame them to try to do it. People who undercut prices from 101 to 100 were right when you consider that the prices reached 90 two weeks later. And people who undercut the price now are still right, if they expect the prices to fall even more.
Really patience is a nonsense in economy. It's just people expecting given events. They may be right, and then they win (like those who undercutted early), they may be wrong and then they'll suffer a little loss. Nothing critical though. It's just a game.
Anyway, dilithium is still free if you play the game. Even at 1:50 or 1:25 it's still extremely profitable to make extra hours at work instead of farming on STO, if you want to use your time efficiently instead of just having fun playing a game.
God, lvl 60 CW. 17k.
Problem is they need to organize and coordinate, which is pretty hard. Problem is also, to form such a cartel, they need 50,000,000 dilithium or more. Where they are gonna get that? They are zen-sellers and have no dil, and if they have dil, they instantly use it :cool:
(On the other hand, the dil-seller could do the same, they need 500,000 zen, which they probably stockpiled by now. I know I have 5000zen stockpiled, so call me maybe. Then we bring the price down to 80 and keep it there with our excess zen, meanwhile selling all our dil at awesome 80, and with the profits we maintain our cartel even longer, muahahaha)
But isn't that self-fulfilling, since the price is only dropping because people undercut?
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But you can choose to be one of these: Dilithium rich. Just hoard the stuff. If you're in a fleet that demands all your dil, your fleet is too impatient or too small. And then you just have to play the game. And level any alts through Foundry missions and dailies.
Not this time, because there are really surpluses of zen and a high demand for dil. It's misunderstanding what self fulfilling expectations mean. There are facts behind that: stocks, demand, offer. It's not just speculation. And the fact that of course dilithium and zen have fixed in game values, which doesn't help to make the market fluid (people can hoard dil or zen safely).
God, lvl 60 CW. 17k.
The problem is a combination of people not understanding LIFO and thinking that their Zen won't sell at all, and people who drop their prices if it doesn't sell within a short amount of time.
We can say with absolute certainty that there are plenty of people ignorant of LIFO, there's plenty of items on the Exchange that needlessly undercut by 1 EC in a pointless attempt to be at the top of the list.
Prices should only drop in response to demand - nobody will buy within X amount of time, so people lower prices. That's how it works in real-world products because other than gas, prices tend to be inflexible (price changes incurs costs). We can see that the equilibrium price it not lower than current, because when prices were at the 102 to 100 mark, I posted at 102 and it sold overnight. If the equilibrium price was lower, then it should never have risen that high in one night. The demand was high enough to drive prices back up.
Addendum:
I also have to note there was external pressure driving down Zen value - the Zen sale allowed for an influx with Zen, while there still isn't much to do with Zen. Perhaps if the future 8 ships are Zen-only, prices will go back up.
You're talking about a cartel or some sort of gang to rip off dil farmers. While i'm not opposed to the idea (i don't mind, i have both, zens and tons of uneeded dil), it can't work. Just let the prices drop until some good c-store addition or a new lockbox comes. It won't change your life, and in the meantime, if it's "too expensive"for you don't use the market and play the game. :P
Because the best way to make the prices rise again is not to use the market at all, except to buy zens with dil.
God, lvl 60 CW. 17k.
I think saying relatively here is completely wrong. It is relatively much more difficult to get dilithium because of the loss of console clickie missions. If you have 20 alts, you can get 28800k dilithium (20*1440) in maybe 30 to 40 minutes depending on how fast you are at switching characters. Now it will take you at least 10 minutes a character to get around that much dilithium, which is doing the infected space or one of the faster Investigate officer report missions. FYI, 20*10 minutes equals 3 hours and 20 minutes, which is nearly 7 times as long.
It is still easy to get dilithium, but not relative to what it was before.
I believe that is the biggest reason for the dramatic change in the dil-zen prices, though the increased demand is also a big issue.
.............
And I still maintain that if you want to rub their faces in it, you have my support.
when do you think is gonna reach the minimum?? im savin up all my dilthium to get 2500 zen just at the right moment
If we take a hypothetical example where there's 100 zen for sale asking 90 dil/zen and literally no other bids or sales on the exchange at all. If I post 90 dil asking for 1 zen my purchase happens instantly. If I post 91 or 89 I have to wait. So the impatient person can get their instant gratification whenever they want (assuming the market isn't empty).
What I do is always price 1 below the lowest or one above the highest depending on whether I'm buying or selling. I price at 89 instead of 90 because I want that fraction of a penny more zen and I know that it will move fast enough. If the top is 90 I'll buy at 91 because I want that one extra dil and I know it will move fast enough.
I suspect a lot of people are doing the same.