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Dilthium HAS Officially crashed

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  • chikahirochikahiro Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Or people with zen need to hoard it until the market goes up again. We'll probably see a slight spike January 10-15th as people who have missed too many races buy keys to get the lobi for the breen ship. Possibly another bump if the andorian ship gets released.
    Pretty much. The big issue being is you've got all these people willing to spend buy Dilithium at the current rates, and people like me who are more than happy to sell it to them.

    Either Dilithium supply needs to go up, or the people who are buying Dilithium need to put less of a premium on it, trying to drive the price back to a more favorable ratio for them. I'm not sure how much thought the typical Dilithium buyer puts into the rates - I'd imagine the desire for immediate gratification outweighs any long-term plans to drive the price.
    You have it backwards, its quite logical. dilithium is in high demand while zen isnt. Therefore you get more zen per dilithium. If zen were in higher demand than dilithium the market would be more like 200 dilithium per zen instead of the current 100 per zen

    Right now Dilithium is at a premium.

    "Hey, coffee sells well at $1 a cup."

    "Hey, still sells well at $2 a cup."

    "You know, its crazy, but it still sells pretty decently at $3 a cup."

    "Gosh darn, who would've thought we'd ever be paying $5 for a cup of coffee?"

    Okay, maybe not a perfect match, but 1:100 is definitely luxury pricing for recreation. Time is money, and some people would rather pay money than pay in time (which is arguably the entire crux of the matter).

    My blog! Zen|Dilithium tracking on Thursdays
    http://samonmaui.blogspot.com
    As a lifetime member of STO, I officially became a financial liability as of April 2012 when compared to a subscriber.
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    chikahiro wrote: »
    Pretty much. The big issue being is you've got all these people willing to spend buy Dilithium at the current rates, and people like me who are more than happy to sell it to them.

    Either Dilithium supply needs to go up, or the people who are buying Dilithium need to put less of a premium on it, trying to drive the price back to a more favorable ratio for them. I'm not sure how much thought the typical Dilithium buyer puts into the rates - I'd imagine the desire for immediate gratification outweighs any long-term plans to drive the price.



    Right now Dilithium is at a premium.

    "Hey, coffee sells well at $1 a cup."

    "Hey, still sells well at $2 a cup."

    "You know, its crazy, but it still sells pretty decently at $3 a cup."

    "Gosh darn, who would've thought we'd ever be paying $5 for a cup of coffee?"

    Okay, maybe not a perfect match, but 1:100 is definitely luxury pricing for recreation. Time is money, and some people would rather pay money than pay in time (which is arguably the entire crux of the matter).

    Time is everything - even at 100/1 - for $10 US(low end wage in most states for 1 hr of work) you get 100,000 dilthium

    But to earn that in game would probably take min 10 hrs for most people - so a $1 per hour return.

    If you have a job(other than the Game:eek::P:D) It is more economical to work an extra hour- even at $10 bucks an hour than grind for 10 hours.

    The real issue on top of that boils down to value - what value are you getting for that $10??

    I suspect that a lot of the Dilthium purchases has purely been for vanity purposes or feeling of pressure to contribute to starbases - which really don't give much return - but are adding a social aspect pressuring people to waste money on something that they don't need!
  • chikahirochikahiro Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Time is everything - even at 100/1 - for $10 US(low end wage in most states for 1 hr of work) you get 100,000 dilthium

    But to earn that in game would probably take min 10 hrs for most people - so a $1 per hour return.

    If you have a job(other than the Game:eek::P:D) It is more economical to work an extra hour- even at $10 bucks an hour than grind for 10 hours.

    The real issue on top of that boils down to value - what value are you getting for that $10??

    I suspect that a lot of the Dilthium purchases has purely been for vanity purposes or feeling of pressure to contribute to starbases - which really don't give much return - but are adding a social aspect pressuring people to waste money on something that they don't need!
    For me I've bought Dilithium for fleet equipment and the like. Usually I simply earn and sell Dilithium to get Zen and buy keys, or to get Unreplicatable mats to sell on the Exchange.

    Granted, my main contribution to my fleet is via things bought with EC. Its not unusual for me to buy thousands of a commodity needed for a project. Or two. Or three.

    My blog! Zen|Dilithium tracking on Thursdays
    http://samonmaui.blogspot.com
    As a lifetime member of STO, I officially became a financial liability as of April 2012 when compared to a subscriber.
  • bluedarkybluedarky Member Posts: 548 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    sharyssa wrote: »
    ...this...This...THIS, and why PWE doesn't get a nickle is my money for keys. My monthly sub is enough i/m/h/o, unless I see something that really grabs me in the store. If you REALLY want to see a screwed up F2P model look at (insert name of game with lightsabers and such here)...you get to "dash" if you sub...SHEESH!

    One of my main counters to the few friends who've chosen to play TOR under it's F2P model and extol it's virtues to me and attempt to convince me it's a better F2P model now follows.

    "At least I don't have to pay to roll on loot in STFs."
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    "At least I don't have to pay to roll on loot in STFs."

    Ok THATS a good idea

    Need 10 zen
    Greed 1 zen
    pass FREE

    Yeah rock and roll
    Live long and Prosper
  • twg042370twg042370 Member Posts: 2,312 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Wasn't there a plan for a TNG bundle at some point? Surely that will drive up the Zen demand.
    <3
  • stark2kstark2k Member Posts: 1,467 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    I'm kinda in a slump at the moment, you see I have a nice sum of Zen at my disposal, however; the true source I need is Dilithium. This is because our Fleet requires a fairly large sum of it.

    With the new embassy projects requesting Dilithium like a child begging for mama's milk, its demand is indeed on the rise.

    One huge problem:

    Zen is worthless at the moment and the simple fact that the Dilithium market is in a slump. I cannot get the Dilithium needed at the price per Zen that I want. It is currently between 100 to 104 Dilithium per Zen.
    StarTrekIronMan.jpg
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  • walshicuswalshicus Member Posts: 1,314 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Yesterday night and this morning (England time) the price was closer to 108 - seems like either the Dil supply is up or utilisation in sinks is down.
    http://mmo-economics.com - analysing the economic interactions in MMOs.
  • frontline2042frontline2042 Member Posts: 219 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    walshicus wrote: »
    Yesterday night and this morning (England time) the price was closer to 108 - seems like either the Dil supply is up or utilisation in sinks is down.

    If it continues to go up i think it'll be because people with zen just wont buy at these exchange rates
    Ignorance is an obstacle not an excuse
    Let the stupid suffer
  • aelfwin1aelfwin1 Member Posts: 2,896 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Speaking as someone with some video game market experience.

    (snip)

    The minimum is 25. I don't think it gets quite THAT low but i said 50 for a reason. PWE doesnt need this Cryptic wont survive it long term. They have 3 more seasons on the drawing boards already that much is clear. But i dont know if they'll get to them if the dilithium market stays at historically low levels.

    At the time the Dil market was enacted , Zen/Dil were the major income .
    Now (over a year later) , lockboxes are the major income -- w/zen, dil , lobi being ... not even secondary income to Cryptic ... (more like orderves) .
    At this time .
    All has changed and all can change again ... to a point .
  • edited December 2012
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  • walshicuswalshicus Member Posts: 1,314 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    If it continues to go up i think it'll be because people with zen just wont buy at these exchange rates

    That's one explanation, but I think the more likely one is that the supply of dilithium compared to it's demand has slowly shifted back toward (but not at) Season 6 levels as players optimise their playtime better.

    I'm predicting the new mid-term average price of Zen to be 130 Dilithium. I doubt we'll see it at 150 again without changes to the Foundry Daily or Officer of the Watch (so that players spend less time grinding Fleet Marks).

    We're getting fairly close to the point where people are going to be maxing out both reputations too, so when that happens you'll see the Dilithium supply increase as people switch from Romulan Marks to more readily available Omega Marks (which in turn are exchanged for Dil).
    http://mmo-economics.com - analysing the economic interactions in MMOs.
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    walshicus wrote: »
    That's one explanation, but I think the more likely one is that the supply of dilithium compared to it's demand has slowly shifted back toward (but not at) Season 6 levels as players optimise their playtime better.

    I'm predicting the new mid-term average price of Zen to be 130 Dilithium. I doubt we'll see it at 150 again without changes to the Foundry Daily or Officer of the Watch (so that players spend less time grinding Fleet Marks).

    We're getting fairly close to the point where people are going to be maxing out both reputations too, so when that happens you'll see the Dilithium supply increase as people switch from Romulan Marks to more readily available Omega Marks (which in turn are exchanged for Dil).

    Can you say - "new dilthium sink - that just HAS to be done - is just around the corner"
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Are you buying the Zen to trade for dithium at 98/1 ?
  • anazondaanazonda Member Posts: 8,399 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    oh thats easy: no :)
    Don't look silly... Don't call it the "Z-Store/Zen Store"...
    Let me put the rumors to rest: it's definitely still the C-Store (Cryptic Store) It just takes ZEN.
    Like Duty Officers? Support effords to gather ideas
  • admiraljt#1430 admiraljt Member Posts: 452 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Are you buying the Zen to trade for dithium at 98/1 ?

    Nope, I'm cashing in the dilithium I bought a 150.
  • erei1erei1 Member Posts: 4,081 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    I'm so happy. This and the 15% on zkey is really sweet ! Thank you cryptic for breaking the dilithium market :D
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Well its official only a complete idiot /total newcomer would trade zen at this price

    so dilith is now worthless
    Live long and Prosper
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    sollvax wrote: »
    Well its official only a complete idiot /total newcomer would trade zen at this price

    so dilith is now worthless

    You mean Zen is worthless!!

    And it won't go up as so many people are buying Zen with dilthium hoping it will go up - that will put a cap on any gains

    I guess loads of people are spending real cash on Zen to trade for dilthium.
  • admiraljt#1430 admiraljt Member Posts: 452 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    I'm not a market analyst but I'll play one here on the forums.

    I'm betting the market will turn around in 30 to 60 days, when a majority of people reach tier 5 in the Rep. systems. I don't think we will see 200+ to 1. but I think it will get to 175 to 1 or so for a while until the next big Dilithium sink is released.
  • kiralynkiralyn Member Posts: 1,576 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    sollvax wrote: »
    Well its official only a complete idiot /total newcomer would trade zen at this price

    so dilith is now worthless


    1. As the other guy said, you mean "zen is worthless" (i.e, you can't get the "value" - dil - for your zen that you desire)


    2. Just checked. There's 170k zen available at 100 dil. Plenty of people trading zen it seems. (And the ~50k or so that was at 99 earlier seems to have gone as well.)

    edit: if the prices were unacceptable, people wouldn't sell. They're still selling, so clearly they find the prices acceptable. Essence of a free market. Same as posting items on the exchange. Items aren't worth what you want to post them for, they're worth what people will actually buy them for.


    Personally, I'm finding dil to be worth a great deal this weekend - I've gotten so many zen in the last 24-48 hours. It's great. :P
    (and yes - I've put money into the game. Bought zen a couple times in the past month, and did a month of sub. Still happy to be able to get plenty of zen for my dil.)
  • marc8219marc8219 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Zen exchange rate is so great for dil farmers that instead of waitng for t5 romulan rep I put it on hold and stopped at t2 on all my characters so I can focus on dil farming. Won't bother with romulan rep unless exchange rate goes higher and I have less motivation to farm dil.
    Tala -KDF Tac- House of Beautiful Orions
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    No I mean Dilith is worthless (as in to me)

    Its not longer viable to buy it thus it has no value now

    I will no longer be purchasing or using dilith AT ALL other than what I gain incidentally
    projects will stall but thats the price I pay for not wanting to make speculators rich

    Why trade for dilith it its going to cost me Hundreds of pounds to put in a row of BAD dummys

    its no longer Worth it
    indeed I will now need to reconsider continuing Gold sub
    Live long and Prosper
  • twg042370twg042370 Member Posts: 2,312 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    marc8219 wrote: »
    Zen exchange rate is so great for dil farmers...

    Yes!

    Excuse me while I do the Klingon Farmer Victory Dance. *ha cha cha*
    <3
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Klingon farmers do not dance

    they wait for the harvest and worry about blight
    Live long and Prosper
  • graptorgraptor Member Posts: 82 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Here's my shot at market analysis:

    In season 7, they killed two of the fastest, easiest ways of getting dil:

    Chart the B'Tran Cluster + Explore Strange New Worlds twofer (3 missions = 2880)

    Investigate Officer Reports 30 second console poking threefer (1 console poke = 1440)

    the resulting drop in dilithium supply resulted in a drop in zen demand, causing the price to drop.

    Having realized it's crashing, they took steps to increase the dil supply by increasing the gains from the mining mission (max 1k instead of max 525 per run, with minimums also increased), and changed Investigate Officer Reports into a 1-mission, 30 minute repeatable for 960 dil (from a 3 mission daily for 1440).

    It's still a LOT less of an increase than the loss was...and now there's a zen sale, which also puts downward pressure on prices by increasing the zen supply.

    Unless they increase the dil supply more, at least some of it is probably going to be permanent. How much is hard to say, what with the Z sale distorting the market.

    They could temporarily jack it up by having a d-store sale, but that won't help much if there's a chronic supply problem: It WOULD shove it out of a rut if it's stuck in one, though.
  • thisisoverlordthisisoverlord Member Posts: 949 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    graptor wrote: »
    Here's my shot at market analysis:

    In season 7, they killed two of the fastest, easiest ways of getting dil:

    Chart the B'Tran Cluster + Explore Strange New Worlds twofer (3 missions = 2880)

    Investigate Officer Reports 30 second console poking threefer (1 console poke = 1440)

    the resulting drop in dilithium supply resulted in a drop in zen demand, causing the price to drop.

    Having realized it's crashing, they took steps to increase the dil supply by increasing the gains from the mining mission (max 1k instead of max 525 per run, with minimums also increased), and changed Investigate Officer Reports into a 1-mission, 30 minute repeatable for 960 dil (from a 3 mission daily for 1440).

    It's still a LOT less of an increase than the loss was...and now there's a zen sale, which also puts downward pressure on prices by increasing the zen supply.

    Unless they increase the dil supply more, at least some of it is probably going to be permanent. How much is hard to say, what with the Z sale distorting the market.

    They could temporarily jack it up by having a d-store sale, but that won't help much if there's a chronic supply problem: It WOULD shove it out of a rut if it's stuck in one, though.

    Prices will level off mid jane to about 112-115 at best. That will be the new nominal.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    #2311#2700#2316#2500
  • artanisenartanisen Member Posts: 431 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    the reason why the dilithium keeps crashing everyones buying up dilithium so blame the developers on that part. and no ones selling up dilithium.

    so the more items that cost refine dilithium the more dil exchange will crash
    the less money pwe will make.
  • admiraljt#1430 admiraljt Member Posts: 452 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    artanisen wrote: »
    the reason why the dilithium keeps crashing everyones buying up dilithium so blame the developers on that part. and no ones selling up dilithium.

    so the more items that cost refine dilithium the more dil exchange will crash
    the less money pwe will make.

    Actually Cryptic makes more money when people buy Zen to trade for dilithium at low levels. This is what they want.
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