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Dilthium HAS Officially crashed

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  • twg042370twg042370 Member Posts: 2,312 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    I actually do think it's working like a Friedman-style free market should: The bust came after the boom.

    I continue to enjoy the schadenfreude that comes with the suddenness of all the "Don't touch the market!" speculators becoming Keynesians and wanting the "government" to step in. But once some hot items hit the Z-Store and the exchange rate evens out everyone can unleash their inner John Galts again, I'm sure.
    <3
  • priapus1priapus1 Member Posts: 21 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    i have been trying for the last 2 days to convert some of my dilithium into zen. is there and easy way to do this other than the exchange?
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    twg042370 wrote: »
    I actually do think it's working like a Friedman-style free market should: The bust came after the boom.

    I continue to enjoy the schadenfreude that comes with the suddenness of all the "Don't touch the market!" speculators becoming Keynesians and wanting the "government" to step in. But once some hot items hit the Z-Store and the exchange rate evens out everyone can unleash their inner John Galts again, I'm sure.

    The thing is you can't compare this to a normal market - well there really is no free market today anyways - the US stock market is fully supported by the US gov't - same goes for the currency market.

    Plus Cryptic has caused this result by there actions - leaving a exploit open for so long then closing it at the same time as removing lots of inputs + adding even more outflows.

    So to bring up any economist is completely rediculous.
  • thisisoverlordthisisoverlord Member Posts: 949 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    The thing is you can't compare this to a normal market - well there really is no free market today anyways

    Never has been if governments aren't controlling economic markets cartels and private interests are.

    Simple as that.
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  • vesterengvestereng Member Posts: 2,252 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    It's only natural people try to figure it out, of course they have an interest in knowing whether they going to lose or win resources.

    And of course you can compare it to real life economy and the stock market especially the part that's psychological and anarcistic or uncontrollable.
  • chikahirochikahiro Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Of course, Dilithium is an infinite resource, so really all that can be done is to control how big a spigot there is to it. The risk/reward feelings aren't the same with it as it is for real money (at least for me). And, really, what can be done with it is far more limited than real money.

    My blog! Zen|Dilithium tracking on Thursdays
    http://samonmaui.blogspot.com
    As a lifetime member of STO, I officially became a financial liability as of April 2012 when compared to a subscriber.
  • skyranger1414skyranger1414 Member Posts: 1,785 Arc User
    edited December 2012

    At the moment, the majority of people are not going to sell zen for dilithium,

    Who is whipping out their wallet right now to buy $50 bucks of Zen to convert to dilthium? All the people commenting here who did claim they are not going to again at these prices.

    Clearly someone is buying up Zen at 103-104 Dil, and even less for brief periods of time.

    I think that most people complaining do so because they suddenly find themselves on the other side of the value/cost curve. I was expecting Cryptic to step in but it really looks like they're going to keep their hands off and let it find a new balance with the current Dil market input/outputs.
  • twg042370twg042370 Member Posts: 2,312 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    The thing is you can't compare this to a normal market
    blah blah blah...

    This is a virtual model of an Upper-Case-F-M Free Market. It works exactly as it should: Boom, bust, boom, bust. You're being weapons grade hypocrites if you've decided this a bad thing when you're no longer benefiting from it.

    This is the system you want. This is the system you get. The end.
    <3
  • chikahirochikahiro Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    twg042370 wrote: »
    This is a virtual model of an Upper-Case-F-M Free Market. It works exactly as it should: Boom, bust, boom, bust. You're being weapons grade hypocrites if you've decided this a bad thing when you're no longer benefiting from it.

    This is the system you want. This is the system you get. The end.

    Its a low Z to D right now, so I'm loving buying Zen. When it was higher? I'd use my stipend to buy Dilithium for my fleet, or buy Unreplicatable Materials.

    My blog! Zen|Dilithium tracking on Thursdays
    http://samonmaui.blogspot.com
    As a lifetime member of STO, I officially became a financial liability as of April 2012 when compared to a subscriber.
  • ltsmithltsmith Member Posts: 207 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Hold your horses people it has not crashed, the Dilthium exchange is not like the Stock Market. No one has to place their Zen for sale for Dilthium the exchange; it is just at a low because Zen is not in high demand. All this means is that they are making content for everyone and not stuffing it in the C-Store having people pay for it.
    Join date: January 2010
  • outlaw51825outlaw51825 Member Posts: 172 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Speaking as someone with some video game market experience.

    At one point Dilithium had a value of about...300:1 zen. Those were the days for a lot of people (a few seasons back)

    As of season 6 that value 140-170 depending on the time what was available and the general need. With season 7's near abortion level of a debut zen has fallen sharply. I'ts lost nearly 50% of its value. And has lost more depending on what end of the market you play. The purchasing power of Zen has flat out CRASHED (Go ask an economist if you dont believe me.) and we haven't seen a bottom to this market yet. Cryptic may not be willing to take measures to fix this market situation but i think will be FORCED to in the near to moderate future. I don't believe they'll be able to tolerate 50:1 dilith->zen but that's where i predicted weeks ago that's where it was going to be when everything shook out.

    At this point its a dilithium player's market in terms of Dilithium -> Zen. At the moment a 3000 Zen item would equate to 300k dilithium. ONE fleet special project and less than one Tier 3+ Fleet project. Not including personal reputation issues. And that's what's going to keep the price falling in my opinion. Dilithium has become needed for far too much without a corresponding increase in available sources (initially) And no high VALUE sources (1500+) to drain from. Players aren't going to be able to and aren't willing to in most cases grind for dilithium all day when it is linked to EVERYTHING. They'll take what they can get sure but the more of a chore it feels like the less they'll play and the more the ones who can will use ZEN to pick up the slack. And that is why the prices are falling so much. And that's why i think we haven't seen the bottom of this yet. There are a number of factors that could stop the bleeding or change the number in an upward direction some temp some permanent. If permanent ones aren't enacted Cryptic and PWE needs to brace itself for the bottom end of the dilithium market. The minimum is 25. I don't think it gets quite THAT low but i said 50 for a reason. PWE doesnt need this Cryptic wont survive it long term. They have 3 more seasons on the drawing boards already that much is clear. But i dont know if they'll get to them if the dilithium market stays at historically low levels.
  • born2bwild1born2bwild1 Member Posts: 1,329 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Speaking as someone with some video game market experience.

    At one point Dilithium had a value of about...300:1 zen. Those were the days for a lot of people (a few seasons back)

    As of season 6 that value 140-170 depending on the time what was available and the general need. With season 7's near abortion level of a debut zen has fallen sharply. I'ts lost nearly 50% of its value. And has lost more depending on what end of the market you play. The purchasing power of Zen has flat out CRASHED (Go ask an economist if you dont believe me.) and we haven't seen a bottom to this market yet. Cryptic may not be willing to take measures to fix this market situation but i think will be FORCED to in the near to moderate future. I don't believe they'll be able to tolerate 50:1 dilith->zen but that's where i predicted weeks ago that's where it was going to be when everything shook out.

    At this point its a dilithium player's market in terms of Dilithium -> Zen. At the moment a 3000 Zen item would equate to 300k dilithium. ONE fleet special project and less than one Tier 3+ Fleet project. Not including personal reputation issues. And that's what's going to keep the price falling in my opinion. Dilithium has become needed for far too much without a corresponding increase in available sources (initially) And no high VALUE sources (1500+) to drain from. Players aren't going to be able to and aren't willing to in most cases grind for dilithium all day when it is linked to EVERYTHING. They'll take what they can get sure but the more of a chore it feels like the less they'll play and the more the ones who can will use ZEN to pick up the slack. And that is why the prices are falling so much. And that's why i think we haven't seen the bottom of this yet. There are a number of factors that could stop the bleeding or change the number in an upward direction some temp some permanent. If permanent ones aren't enacted Cryptic and PWE needs to brace itself for the bottom end of the dilithium market. The minimum is 25. I don't think it gets quite THAT low but i said 50 for a reason. PWE doesnt need this Cryptic wont survive it long term. They have 3 more seasons on the drawing boards already that much is clear. But i dont know if they'll get to them if the dilithium market stays at historically low levels.

    All I know for a FACT is that in my fleet dilthium condibution has STOPPED - none in over a week - projects just sitting there.

    I suspect It's not the only one, and I just can't see many people spending real dollars - like $30-50 which people dropped every months before s-7 on starbases - to continue aat sub -100/1

    After Christmas when consumer spending takes a nose dive - especially when the first credit card bills of the new year come in the mail - I expect purchases of Zen with Real dollars to come to a virtual halt.

    What will happen then?
  • mavgeekrsamavgeekrsa Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    What will happen then?

    Dillithium Stimulus Package
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    STO / Cryptic member since 2009 (mavgeek)
  • joker8mejoker8me Member Posts: 55 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Quick question...

    What is so great about starbases and dumping all this dilithium into them? I've seen the ships & weapons and fail to see how an extra 3k hull, 1 extra console slot, an additional 50 dps, etc. makes any meaningful difference regarding game play.

    I've played plenty of MMOs and understand people who want to min/max, but in my experience the only facet that concept really benefits is PvP which is pretty much non-existent in STO.

    The new reputation system & associated items cost dilithium, but from what information I have gathered so far it looks like it will take around maybe 500k to outfit your toon across the board when it hits lvl 5. If you have 3-4 Klingon alts and want to go at it for a week or two then it is totally easy to generate these amounts.

    Just trying to figure out why people are in such a tizzy over dilithium when Zen still costs real money at the end of the day.
  • weylandjuarezweylandjuarez Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    joker8me wrote: »
    Quick question...

    What is so great about starbases and dumping all this dilithium into them? I've seen the ships & weapons and fail to see how an extra 3k hull, 1 extra console slot, an additional 50 dps, etc. makes any meaningful difference regarding game play.

    They're not - they're really just fluff since they don't add any tangible benefit to the game outside of incrementally better ships and an easy way to obtain Mk XII weapons and equipment - and this is exactly the reason some fleets are stalling because their members aren't getting anything tangible in return for their time and money.
    joker8me wrote: »
    The new reputation system & associated items cost dilithium, but from what information I have gathered so far it looks like it will take around maybe 500k to outfit your toon across the board when it hits lvl 5. If you have 3-4 Klingon alts and want to go at it for a week or two then it is totally easy to generate these amounts.

    That's exactly it though - you have to make a go of it - you have to work for it. Pre-Season 7, I could do a quick clicky, maybe do B'tran or the Deferi missions, a little doffing and then run some STFs with my friends in the STF community.

    That community's evaporated in the wake of the S7 changes, clickies are gone, B'tran's gone and now I need Rom Marks too to level up the Rep system. I'm spending much more time just getting what I need to progress than I am playing the game - by the time I've finished doffing for Contraband, running the Tau Dewa daily patrol and doing a mandatory STF on my three characters I don't actually feel like doing anything else - and I don't feel like I've been playing STO - all that feels like work.

    And what does it get me? Just about my 8k Dilithium (depending on the Doff mission payouts). Prior to S7 I was never short of Dilithium, now I am but whilst the changes may not seem that drastic to some, they've impacted me greatly changing activities that used to be fun into something that feels like work.
    joker8me wrote: »
    Just trying to figure out why people are in such a tizzy over dilithium when Zen still costs real money at the end of the day.

    Because they want to play the content they want to play and earn Dilithium - the only reason I go to Tau Dewa is to grind Rom Marks (and it is a grind) and I hate every second of it but I want to get through the Rep System so I don't have a choice do I?
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  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    All of this is why it should be fixed and regulated

    Right now suppose I wanted to pay 170 dilth for Zen
    I CAN'T the so called free market makes me pay 106
    this is WRONG
    Live long and Prosper
  • thisisoverlordthisisoverlord Member Posts: 949 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Clearly someone is buying up Zen at 103-104 Dil, and even less for brief periods of time.

    I think that most people complaining do so because they suddenly find themselves on the other side of the value/cost curve. I was expecting Cryptic to step in but it really looks like they're going to keep their hands off and let it find a new balance with the current Dil market input/outputs.

    If you look at the statistics provided the amount of Zen on sale is down, so clearly whilst there will always be a percentage that have the money to sell Zen at any price, the drop in the value of Zen is having a profound effect on the volume of Zen being traded.

    The hilarity is you're already wrong in your statement that "they're going keep their hands off" they've already interfered twice to stabilize the exchange and have failed. Imagine what the value of Zen would have been if they had continued to offer no dilithium reward for STF's ;), we would be looking at sub 80 prices by now.:cool:

    That community's evaporated in the wake of the S7 changes, clickies are gone, B'tran's gone and now I need Rom Marks too to level up the Rep system. I'm spending much more time just getting what I need to progress than I am playing the game - by the time I've finished doffing for Contraband, running the Tau Dewa daily patrol and doing a mandatory STF on my three characters I don't actually feel like doing anything else - and I don't feel like I've been playing STO - all that feels like work.

    And what does it get me? Just about my 8k Dilithium (depending on the Doff mission payouts). Prior to S7 I was never short of Dilithium, now I am but whilst the changes may not seem that drastic to some, they've impacted me greatly changing activities that used to be fun into something that feels like work.



    Because they want to play the content they want to play and earn Dilithium - the only reason I go to Tau Dewa is to grind Rom Marks (and it is a grind) and I hate every second of it but I want to get through the Rep System so I don't have a choice do I?

    Once again couldn't agree more that's what my experience of this game has become and often I log in with a sense of determination than a sense of fun and the hope in the back of my mind that S8 will brings something good.
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  • yakumosmithyakumosmith Member Posts: 101 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Season 7 added a massive amount of grind to the game.

    Now in a month or so once people start maxing out the reputation system, we may see more dilithium start to appear again as more people convert OM/BNP directly to dilithium, but I suspect this won't happen? Why?

    While the grind isn't perminant (especially for OM/RM) it was enough that I couldn't maintain the grind at pre Season 7 levels. (4 "main" characters, solo starbase, SFT gear, DoFf's etc) What it forced me to do was evaluate what was important to me. As it turned out, a lot of the content wasn't important to me, so I scaled back my playing. My solo SB is moving slowly as FM's are harder to come by. I simply made a deal with a larger fleet for shipyard access and temporarily left my current fleet - result is FM's aren't a big deal any more. RM's...might look at them in a few months, but I don't have the time. so RM's are no longer a big deal.

    By making me evaluate what is important to me (my time) the game effectively made the entire contents of the Zen store worthless to me and once the genie is out the bottle, it made me start evaluating other areas of the game. My time/entertainment is now worth more to me than a costume pack or a new OP ship. So while in a month i'll be rolling in Dilithium again, I just won't have any need for Zen or the need to grind massive stockpiles.

    Season 6 - "I need to log on and progress lots of things"
    Season 7 - "I'll maybe log on later after doing something else"
  • mrspidey2mrspidey2 Member Posts: 959 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    rezking wrote: »
    If everyone is sitting on a stockplie, convert it to Zen NOW.
    These projects aren't going to last forever.
    When they end, and they will end eventually, that need for dilithium will drop off.
    That won't happen for at least one more month. So people should not convert now, but instead wait for the price to continue to drop, as the Tier 5 reputations, fleetbases and embassies will increase the demand for Dilithium even more.

    Personally, I'm very thankful for the price dropping like a stone, as i'm currently saving up for a Vesta. The less grind needed, the better.
    2bnb7apx.jpg
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Im waiting for the price for special projects to be converted to Zen (say 1000 a pop)
    Live long and Prosper
  • skyranger1414skyranger1414 Member Posts: 1,785 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    The hilarity is you're already wrong in your statement that "they're going keep their hands off" they've already interfered twice to stabilize the exchange and have failed. Imagine what the value of Zen would have been if they had continued to offer no dilithium reward for STF's ;), we would be looking at sub 80 prices by now.:cool:

    Perhaps I should clarify. I meant them interfering directly with large influx of Dil directly in the market.
    What it forced me to do was evaluate what was important to me. As it turned out, a lot of the content wasn't important to me, so I scaled back my playing.


    EXACTLY!. I find myself and others doing this as well. I was trying to keep up with at least the Omega rep for 3 of alts but they are all pretty much stuck at the cutting beam.

    Add in the timegates at every turn when you want to advance something and you feel even less like you want to log in everyday.This is a serious problem Cryptic is facing. Sure, it can be said its a nice move toward a more laid back casual playstyle, where you feel no pressure to log in, but its gone too far in that direction.... now you wonder why should bother logging in.
  • brigadooombrigadooom Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    EXACTLY!. I find myself and others doing this as well. I was trying to keep up with at least the Omega rep for 3 of alts but they are all pretty much stuck at the cutting beam.

    Add in the timegates at every turn when you want to advance something and you feel even less like you want to log in everyday.This is a serious problem Cryptic is facing. Sure, it can be said its a nice move toward a more laid back casual playstyle, where you feel no pressure to log in, but its gone too far in that direction.... now you wonder why should bother logging in.

    Kudos to you for managing to get that far on 3 alts - I've not even managed to get that far on one alt, and have cut down my play time to focus upon my main. I can't be bothered to go through the Marks grind that many times :(

    This rep system feels more like it belongs in a browser than a 3D game; I'm not earning reputation, I'm buying it with energy credits and waiting 20 hours to click a little more.
    ----
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  • thisisoverlordthisisoverlord Member Posts: 949 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    brigadooom wrote: »
    Kudos to you for managing to get that far on 3 alts - I've not even managed to get that far on one alt, and have cut down my play time to focus upon my main. I can't be bothered to go through the Marks grind that many times :(

    This rep system feels more like it belongs in a browser than a 3D game; I'm not earning reputation, I'm buying it with energy credits and waiting 20 hours to click a little more.

    Hahah thats very true... it is Evony-esque we even have the big boobed broad on the front page.
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  • brigadooombrigadooom Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Hahah thats very true... it is Evony-esque we even have the big boobed broad on the front page.

    Haha, given Evony's advertising progression I wonder what we'll be seeing on STO's frontpage by season 9... :eek:
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  • cmdrscarletcmdrscarlet Member Posts: 5,137 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Interesting thread that just got funny. Evony ... wow.

    Forgive my ignorance but I am still learning this part of STO ... if I'm spending Zen to buy Dilithium then these prices hurt *me* because I'm wanting D faster than the I could get it myself.

    But for those selling Dilithium, the low D->Z is a benefit because less effort is needed to acquire the D to sell, correct? But, what is the Zen being used for by the Dilithium sellers?
  • weylandjuarezweylandjuarez Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    But for those selling Dilithium, the low D->Z is a benefit because less effort is needed to acquire the D to sell, correct?

    Correct.
    But, what is the Zen being used for by the Dilithium sellers?

    Ships
    Lockbox Keys (either for opening lockboxes or selling on the exchange for ECs)

    And some are probably hanging on to the Zen, hoping that it'll rise in value to a larger sum than they paid for it - if you buy Zen now for 100 Dil->1 Zen and the exchange rate goes back up to 125 Dil->1 Zen you've just made 25% more Dil without doing a thing.
    Please join our peaceful protest to help make STO a better game
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  • killjack0killjack0 Member Posts: 89 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Put it this way. I cant say that i miss 300+dil per zen. The market doesnt seem ro have gone back up since i asked sellers to atificially deflate the market durring one of the first lockbox event which they did do. Guess they made enough not to raise it back up. In a way i want to say im slightly responsible but it has been a long time since then.

    I asked this because in the previous event they inflatted the price ro near cap. So i asked if we could deflate it to stick it to cryptic by making it more appealing to buy via dilith. In a way it pushed the market medium to affordable levels for all players.
  • cmdrscarletcmdrscarlet Member Posts: 5,137 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Ships
    Lockbox Keys (either for opening lockboxes or selling on the exchange for ECs)

    And some are probably hanging on to the Zen, hoping that it'll rise in value to a larger sum than they paid for it - if you buy Zen now for 100 Dil->1 Zen and the exchange rate goes back up to 125 Dil->1 Zen you've just made 25% more Dil without doing a thing.

    Thank you.

    Man, I think people need to walk away from this aspect of the game.
  • sollvaxsollvax Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    Right

    lockbox keys need to be bind on purchase
    Dilith-zen needs to be set and locked
    projects need to have a zen requirement /option instead of dilith
    The market should list ALL available prices not merely the lowest
    Live long and Prosper
  • chikahirochikahiro Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited December 2012
    sollvax wrote: »
    Right

    lockbox keys need to be bind on purchase
    Dilith-zen needs to be set and locked
    projects need to have a zen requirement /option instead of dilith
    The market should list ALL available prices not merely the lowest

    * Can't go for that myself, but I'm greedy. I like buying and selling those things, plus the occassional giving them away.

    * No way you'll ever get anyone to agree on a rate.

    * See above. Right now there's the option, but its indirect.

    * Would be fascinating, but I don't know how much that'd help. Top 10, or even 20? Maybe. But everything from 1:25 to 1:500?

    edit: Want the Z to D rate to change into something more pro-Zen? Tell people to stop buying Dilithium at such poor rates. Or, see if you can start manipulating it yourselves. Get a big group together and work it out.
    http://www.ehow.com/how_8238575_corner-market-particular-commodity.html

    That said, I'm perfectly happy selling my Dilithium at the current rates, and I love using my Zen to buy things from the Store.

    My blog! Zen|Dilithium tracking on Thursdays
    http://samonmaui.blogspot.com
    As a lifetime member of STO, I officially became a financial liability as of April 2012 when compared to a subscriber.
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