josiahiyonMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 396Arc User
edited November 2013
All signs point to cryptic looking to keep costs ~ consistent w/ current live-server costs.
Many have assumed that cryptic is aiming to lower costs, but their recent changes suggest otherwise.
Seems like they are:
Maintaining enhancement / enchantment costs
Giving us more options
Getting a higher % of the AD spend as revenue
Lowering removal costs
Lessening ease of mass coal farming
With the assumptions below, enhancement and enchantment costs are mostly neutral relative to live. Note that the assumptions below are likely over-estimates of the module-2 cost.
Also note that I'm referencing typical AH prices on live server, not cost-to-make. Perfects cost way more to make than to buy.
Important to set up your calculators based on the AD:RP ratio, as that is the most significant variable. Don't base it on a particular item's ratio (such as shards).
Assumption notes:
AD:RP ratio, and all MPs <= the wondrous bazaar. Thus, likely less than those values above unless wondrous bazaar rate changes
CW: Between 100k and 400k. Depends on impact of tarmalune bars. Also may take time for existing supply to die down. If items made w/ bound CWs are unbound, may be cheaper to buy lessers than fuse shards w/ CWs.
All signs point to cryptic looking to keep costs ~ consistent w/ current live-server costs.
Many have assumed that cryptic is aiming to lower costs, but their recent changes suggest otherwise.
Seems like they are:
Maintaining enhancement / enchantment costs
Giving us more options
Getting a higher % of the AD spend as revenue
Lowering removal costs
Lessening ease of mass coal farming
With the assumptions below, enhancement and enchantment costs are mostly neutral relative to live. Note that the assumptions below are likely over-estimates of the module-2 cost.
Also note that I'm referencing typical AH prices on live server, not cost-to-make. Perfects cost way more to make than to buy.
Important to set up your calculators based on the AD:RP ratio, as that is the most significant variable. Don't base it on a particular item's ratio (such as shards).
Assumption notes:
AD:RP ratio, and all MPs <= the wondrous bazaar. Thus, likely less than those values above unless wondrous bazaar rate changes
CW: Between 100k and 400k. Depends on impact of tarmalune bars. Also may take time for existing supply to die down. If items made w/ bound CWs are unbound, may be cheaper to buy lessers than fuse shards w/ CWs.
You missed 1 important factor, which is demand.
Vorpal shards are 34,000 on AH atm instead of 20,000 and they will go even more.
Same with rune stones / enchants. It is cheaper for me, with the module changes, to make a perfect enchant using random type of shards than with same type of shards. Prices increases on item that has most demand on it, and since everyone buying rune stones/enchants/shards now instead of buying shards only the prices of every item that gives RP is getting higher and higher.
Thank you for pointing out the missing patch note. I missed a period of hours of checkins while I was compiling the checkin list to make notes from. I will have this along with the other missing notes updated today.
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josiahiyonMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 396Arc User
edited November 2013
Demand for high-cost shards could decrease, since only 32 shards are required to make a perfect. And shards drop in the world.
Demand is a tricky component to incorporate. Have to consider a lot of variables, including (but not limited to) if lessers can be purchased for less than a coal ward due to BoA CWs.
I don't think a full picture of the impact on demand can be estimated. Costs may decrease or increase. Without a significant argument one way or the other, I'm considering it a wash in aggregate.
The key component in my analysis is the AD:RP ratio. I kept it at a MAX, since people won't pay more on the AH for shards, etc than they can buy from the wondrous bazaar (6:1). Thus, the demand impact on this ratio is irrelevant in my calculation above.
Edit to add: Demand could decrease the module 2 costs in my analysis above, but not increase since my estimates are assuming max demand.
Demand for high-cost shards could decrease, since only 32 shards are required to make a perfect. And shards drop in the world.
Demand is a tricky component to incorporate. Have to consider a lot of variables, including (but not limited to) if lessers can be purchased for less than a coal ward due to BoA CWs.
I don't think a full picture of the impact on demand can be estimated. Costs may decrease or increase. Without a significant argument one way or the other, I'm considering it a wash in aggregate.
The key component in my analysis is the AD:RP ratio. I kept it at a MAX, since people won't pay more on the AH for shards, etc than they can buy from the wondrous bazaar (6:1). Thus, the demand impact on this ratio is irrelevant in my calculation above.
Edit to add: Demand could decrease the module 2 costs in my analysis above, but not increase since my estimates are assuming max demand.
With my current calculations, demand can make the prices more expensive, as expensive or cheaper ( less likely though for the cheaper option).
I do agree it is a tricky part, and has alot of variables. However, with the current prices increase on AH it can go for the 2 options --> "More expensive" or " As expensive".
About the coffer, unfortunately, it is un true. The drop rate is lowered to around 5% from 20% to get a CW. So most likely prices on lessers will remain constant.
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josiahiyonMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 396Arc User
edited November 2013
The 20% figure is debated. Some suggest it is 5% currently. Some 10%. We can test this on owlbear if anyone has a lot of coffers.
This doesn't have much impact on my analysis above, though, since I used expensive module 2 assumptions.
My analysis shows that costs are <= current costs. At max demand (all resources = Wondrous Bazaar prices) and no WD price changes, module 2 costs =~ current costs in aggregate.
It's possible and entirely likely that some enchants/enhancements will go up and others down. I'm referencing an aggregate impact.
With my current calculations, demand can make the prices more expensive, as expensive or cheaper ( less likely though for the cheaper option).
I do agree it is a tricky part, and has alot of variables. However, with the current prices increase on AH it can go for the 2 options --> "More expensive" or " As expensive".
About the coffer, unfortunately, it is un true. The drop rate is lowered to around 5% from 20% to get a CW. So most likely prices on lessers will remain constant.
What you post aren't any real calculations. You only post opinions and maybe situations.
Amount of matching R4s (accumulative) consumed in refining process:
4 (4) for a R4 (1 base, 3 for the RPs)
12 (16) for a R5
48 (64) for a R6
192 (256) for a R7 (128 to refine the R7 itself and 64 R4s for the R7 Catalyst)
640 (896) for a R8 (384 to refine the R8 itself and 256 R4s for the R8 Catalyst)
2048 (2944) for a R9 (1152 to refine the R9 itself and 896 R4s for the R9 Catalyst)
Originally Posted by Current System
4.67 (4.67) to upgrade R4
14.01 (18.68) to upgrade R5
56.04 (74.72) to upgrade R6
224.16 (298.88) to upgrade R7
896.64 (1195.52) to upgrade R8
3586.56 (4782.08) to upgrade R9
Note: This calculation assumes that you use PWards starting with R6s, which is not always the best option (especially for Silverys)
Analysis: The amount of enchants is reduced, slightly for R5-R8, majorly for R9/R10. The ability to use non-matching enchants will speed up the process additionally.
Amount of matching Shards (accumulative) consumed in refining/upgrading process:
4 (4) for a Shard (1 base, 3 for the RPs)
12 (16) for a Lesser (8 to refine the Lesser itself and one 4 Shards for the Lesser Catalyst)
40 (56) for a Normal (24 to refine the Normal itself and 16 Shards for the Normal Catalyst)
128 (184) for a Greater (72 to refine the Greater itself and 56 Shards for the Greater Catalysts)
Note: The minimum amount of matching Shards needed is 4 (Lesser), 8 (Normal), 16 (Greater), 32 (Perfect).
Accumulative material needed for upgrade:
Originally Posted by Current System
R5 (0.00 PWards - 0.00 CWards)
R6 (1.50 PWards - 0.00 CWards)
R7 (8.33 PWards - 0.00 CWards)
R8 (36.32 PWards - 0.00 CWards)
R9 (149.28 PWards - 0.00 CWards)
R10 (606.12 PWards - 0.00 CWards)
Analysis: 606 PWards is a ton from Coffers for a R10, but since the drop rate of new Marks is totally up in the air it's really difficult to predict what is harder to aquire. I'd tend to say the time to grind the needed materials will go down: Coffers are limited to one per char per week, but you can farm as long as you want to. That said: Guys with limited time could always just invest a few minutes per day for praying and still "progress" in terms of their Enchantments. That's impossible under the new system.
Originally Posted by Current System
Lesser (1.00 CWards)
Normal (5.00 CWards)
Greater (21.00 CWards)
Perfect (85.00 CWards)
So for a R10 it mean:
2944 R4 vs. 4782,08 R4
47,64 PW vs. 606,12 PW
That's -1838,08 R4(you can sell that amount)
And -558,48 PW. So additionally, you say that ALL enchantment get nearly the same price. So we have currently round 4 different, so that mean: 4 Silvery can you sell for 4 needed matching azure and so on. So you have only 1/4 or even less of the before grind to do(you need currently the 4782 Azure R4 to make an Azure R10). Now explain how big the impact will be, that the new freedom of choice will become expensive as the current? The R4 can go up 62%! that you can say 'Uh they cost more for lazy people'. You don't mention, that you can farm them. So that is your first fail in this thread. So how much are the over 500 more PW worth against 21,32(this is still easy to obtain) LM 24 Mark 10 GM?
For a perfect it mean:
32 current shards + other shards/stones/Marks
shards only worth now 540
stones worth depending on her rank
Greater Marks worth 750 and can be obtained on 3(5) days in a week for 5k ad
Lesser Fey can be obtained twice a week and worth 12960 for 20k AD
Or you use instead complete 184 shards.
So assuming: 184 cost so much as 256 before: +39% inflation.
Additionally:
15 CW vs. 85 CW
10 GM
So how much does the +70 CW cost against only 10 GM more?!
The shardprices are bound to 5k for 540|Mark for 750/5k to obtain hyper shard uses.
AND what you still suck at the third: Not farmeable lesser enchantment(your mentioned plaguefire) can be easier developed as before. So NOW show your calculation about how it can be as/more expensive as currently with less needed things!
Price shard will increase because high demand. And for that cost of refining will very expensive.
Pb :
if refining syst are so expensive, many players dont upgrade their enchatment (like today)
if many players dont upgrade = less demand = price shard not increase.
So you can say:
new system will be more expensive ----> stop to do calculat with a 5k shard
new system will be cheaper ----> price shard will increase.
Current prices on vorpal shards ( for example) increased from 20,000 to 30,000 ( and is growing)
With the module launch, since we need less now, more people will buy the shards. Means that more demand will be on the shards. Means that they will get higher in price.
Coal wards costs 150k now, because they still drop from coffers with 20% chance. with the new module, they will drop with 4~5% chance and will be BoP. Which will make them go to 200,000~400,000 AD.
Greater marks will be around 80,000 AD each since they are 100,000 on Wondrous bazaar.
Total cost to make 1 perfect : 10,070,000 AD. Assuming demand on vorpal shards will stay @ 30,000 AD. Which is not going to happen.
More demand & More buyers & less amount needed & Same drop rate = higher price. Economy 101- And that's what you fail to understand.
Now for plague fire and tenes, they follow a different route.
To make it simple, RP needed to refine lesser tene/plague = RP needed to refine normal enchant.
RP needed to refine normal tene/plague = RP needed to refine greater enchant.
And since i can;t use "Matching shards" with those, since they don't have shards. IT will be more expensive to refine them than mixing 4 of them on live server.
Side Note: The calculation you posted shows showing the same type of shards/enchants. If you are going to put non-matching type of enchants in the equation, you will see what i mean. Especially with the price growth rate on them atm.
No calculation only big crying. Not more from you.
The shards will be used as 32 if they cost to much for 1,280M. So now we get 5k for each shard, with 540 RP(or you use R4/3 with lesser costs). Okay i checked again the Basar: Flawless Sapphire cost 30k for 5k RP.(don't know if can crit for more RP)
That's about 6M for the shard RP(even less, because they can success with 50% or even 100% more RP with low chance) or ~3,940M for the sapphires.
Additionally that's 15 CW*400k = 6M
+10 GM = 1M = 14,28/12,28M total against your 256*40k + 85*100k= 10,240M + 8,5M = 19,04M VS then 14,32M/12,28M! 4,72M/6,76M LESS
So you don't check mark situation. You are a big fail in this thread with your only complains about a system, that you never seem to understand! The market get the lowest value for the biggest success! If the shards to expensive, then they use other shards/RP-giver! But the old system has it's shame on big more CW needed! They can't be farmed. They can't be bought direct.
Hell! You got from so many ways the needed Rp, that it's total easier!
This is why you don't see what i see. I fixed the numbers for you.
You multiply the old system vorpals by 40,000 even though they would cost 20,000 not 40,000 because you needed more of them = they would cost less.
I will repeat it 1 more time, and then i give up on going through your concrete skull.
More demand & More buyers & less amount needed & Same drop rate = higher price.
It's cheaper. But you don't realize that. Your 'fixed' number isn't the reality now. They are currently over 30k each. Second the price of 400k of CW is to much high. I use it for not to far away from your loved to expensive current market situation.
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josiahiyonMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 396Arc User
This is an implicit assumption regarding the AD:RP ratio in your analysis, but is not strictly correct.
The cost is 32 shards + ~ 750k RP * AD:RP + 15 coal wards + 10 GMP.
That's 32 x [shard cost] + 15 x [cw cost] + 7 x [GMP cost] + 656,640 x [AD per 1 RP]
Plugging in all high cost assumptions...
32 x [20,000] + 15 x [250,000] + 10 x [100,000] + 656,640 x [6] = 9.3M
More likely estimate using average cost assumptions
32 x [5,000] + 15 x [250,000] + 10 x [50,000] + 656,640 x [3] = 6.4M.
Current cost to make:
256 x [20,000] + 85 x [100,000 (old rate)] = 13.6M
256 x [5,000] + 85 x [100,000] = 9.8M
Lower in both cases. Prayer farmers decreased cost on AH, but seems like they will still be able to since lessers made w/ bound cws won't be bound.
400k for CW is the roof (1000zen) real price is 150k (200tarma bar) 200k max
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shunterinoMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
edited November 2013
Had the devs simply introduced the new unslotting for gold idea and also brought in refining points but no marks or reagents and left coal wards as they were I think most people would be very happy and even excited about the changes. As it is, whether you are for or against the new system, I think it's fairly clear that module 2 has been completely overshadowed by these changes. What should be a highly anticipated event feels horribly tainted by the clumsy and convoluted nature of the new enchant refining system with most people dreading its introduction. Shame.
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syka08Member, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
400k for CW is the roof (1000zen) real price is 150k (200tarma bar)
The "Roof" is actually 500k. 1000zen at 500ad:1zen = 500k. Taramalune bars are a gamble, and can run you as high as 1.25 mil AD for a single C.ward (assuming 500 ad1:zen cap and no jackpots, just straight up average booty prize).
Majority of "normal" players plays and dont care about all of that.
And all those test players crying because they buy massive stack of shard and think do massive profits ...
IF new system becomme really more expensive devs will increase drop rate of reagents, of pack for refining ect ... and cost of refining will decrese.
Crying ppl , cry only on their profit expected
The "Roof" is actually 500k. 1000zen at 500ad:1zen = 500k
False 1 zen = 400AD
Taramalune bars are a gamble, and can run you as high as 1.25 mil AD for a single C.ward
Average price depend of drop rate of all lockbox open by all of players ...
Exemple: an archon fire cost 600 -700k for 1000 tarma bar ... If it was difficult to obtain tarma bar , ppl dont buy archon fire to sell it at AH at this price
This is your fundamental mistake. The cost is 32 shards + ~ 460k RP * AD:RP + 15 coal wards + 10 GMP.
That's 32 x [shard cost] + 15 x [cw cost] + 7 x [GMP cost] + 460,000 x [AD per 1 RP]
Plugging in all high cost assumptions...
32 x [25,000] + 15 x [250,000] + 10 x [100,000] + 460,000 x [6] = 8.3M
-->Roughly the same as today's AH price.
More likely estimate using average cost assumptions
32 x [5,000] + 15 x [250,000] + 10 x [50,000] + 460,000 x [3] = 5.8M.
--> Better than today's cost.
You need total of 449,280 RP to make a perfect. 4 refined lessers + 1 refined greater
and you need 10 marks, not 7.
AD:RP ratio is defined by the costs of the shards/enchants/ rune stones. Which is undetermined currently, but from what i see, costs are growing on AH.
Edit: nevermind my corrections about marks, you already corrected it while i'm writing.
Edit #2 : The reason why i went with the matching shards calculation , was to reply to the person who posted calculation using matching shards. I know it is cheaper to use the 32 shards + 1216 shards ( rank 5s enchants) method than the matching shards method in cost wise. However the cost of shards/enchants is varying on AH alot depending on how many buyers. So far some shards increased in price and some decreased and all enchants and rune stones increased in price.
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syka08Member, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
No, the roof for zen is 500 AD : 1 zen. Meaning that is the highest it can go making it the roof. Good Dwight impression, down to the very last drop =P.
contents to be decided
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syka08Member, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
Average price depend of drop rate of all lockbox open by all of players ...
Exemple: an archon fire cost 600 -700k for 1000 tarma bar ... If it was difficult to obtain tarma bar , ppl dont buy archon fire to sell it at AH at this price
Ah, you came back and edited your post. Cool, so again, allow me to reiterate that my assumptions are: 500ad:1zen. The average drop rate of Taramalune bars (which seems to be about 10 per box, excluding jackpots). I'll even be nice and assume it's at 20 average and lower to your "ceiling"
Your goal: 200 taramalune bars.
That's 10 boxes
That's 125 zen per key
That's 400 AD per zen
10*125*400 = 500,000 AD.
Make it the true ceiling of 500ad:1zen and keep everything else the same? 625k.
500 ad may be the cap for 1 zen, but it is possible that there will be a shortage of zen. With changes as they are, I wouldn't be surprised if the 500:1 cap is reached within a few weeks of mod 2 release and people will be offering larger amounts of ad for zen store items in the auction house.
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syka08Member, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
500 ad may be the cap for 1 zen, but it is possible that there will be a shortage of zen. With changes as they are, I wouldn't be surprised if the 500:1 cap is reached within a few weeks of mod 2 release and people will be offering larger amounts of ad for zen store items in the auction house.
Yup! But we're speaking of Roofs here: i.e. the highest it can go. That'd be the 500AD:1zen mark.
AD:RP ratio is defined by the costs of the shards/enchants/ rune stones. Which is undetermined currently, but from what i see, costs are growing on AH.
Its ceiling is defined by the wondrous bazaar saphire (6:1 AD:RP ratio).
With current price s enchantment are Very very cheaper with new system.
If price increase, Dev s will find solutions to decrease enchantment price !!
you haven t all the elements to your attention and make assumptions.
And only assumptions that you make that are bad for the players.
Assuming that's directed at me, given there's no quote and this has been a short, ongoing conversation. The only assumption in the equation are the average drop rates of T.bars (once again, excluding jackpots). To clarify, I'm not assuming that the zen:ad ratio is going to max out. We're talking roofs/ceilings here, I am simply using what exists, as are every other bits of my variables a constant. Would you like it included with keys being discounted, too? Because the difference isn't that high and key discounts only tend to happen before the release of a new lockbox.
So, these are worst case scenario, "roofs." RNG is RNG and you are not guranteed a jackpot, so it's entirely possible to never get it (just like some people with shadow wolves ;3).
So the only element I'm missing is the t.bar, and 20 per box I'd reckon is rather high based off of my own anecdotal experience and that which I've read across the forums.
If you're going to talk roofs and ceilings, be prepared to see roof/ceiling prices.
Comments
Great Job Cryptic. Great Job.
Many have assumed that cryptic is aiming to lower costs, but their recent changes suggest otherwise.
Seems like they are:
With the assumptions below, enhancement and enchantment costs are mostly neutral relative to live. Note that the assumptions below are likely over-estimates of the module-2 cost.
Also note that I'm referencing typical AH prices on live server, not cost-to-make. Perfects cost way more to make than to buy.
AD:RP ratio: 6 (from wondrous bazaar [WB])
GMP: 100k [WB]
MP: 25k [WB]
LMP: 500 [WB]
MMP: 25 [WB]
CW: 250k
Shards: 5k
Important to set up your calculators based on the AD:RP ratio, as that is the most significant variable. Don't base it on a particular item's ratio (such as shards).
Assumption notes:
AD:RP ratio, and all MPs <= the wondrous bazaar. Thus, likely less than those values above unless wondrous bazaar rate changes
CW: Between 100k and 400k. Depends on impact of tarmalune bars. Also may take time for existing supply to die down. If items made w/ bound CWs are unbound, may be cheaper to buy lessers than fuse shards w/ CWs.
Iyon the Dark
You missed 1 important factor, which is demand.
Vorpal shards are 34,000 on AH atm instead of 20,000 and they will go even more.
Same with rune stones / enchants. It is cheaper for me, with the module changes, to make a perfect enchant using random type of shards than with same type of shards. Prices increases on item that has most demand on it, and since everyone buying rune stones/enchants/shards now instead of buying shards only the prices of every item that gives RP is getting higher and higher.
Demand is a tricky component to incorporate. Have to consider a lot of variables, including (but not limited to) if lessers can be purchased for less than a coal ward due to BoA CWs.
I don't think a full picture of the impact on demand can be estimated. Costs may decrease or increase. Without a significant argument one way or the other, I'm considering it a wash in aggregate.
The key component in my analysis is the AD:RP ratio. I kept it at a MAX, since people won't pay more on the AH for shards, etc than they can buy from the wondrous bazaar (6:1). Thus, the demand impact on this ratio is irrelevant in my calculation above.
Edit to add: Demand could decrease the module 2 costs in my analysis above, but not increase since my estimates are assuming max demand.
Iyon the Dark
With my current calculations, demand can make the prices more expensive, as expensive or cheaper ( less likely though for the cheaper option).
I do agree it is a tricky part, and has alot of variables. However, with the current prices increase on AH it can go for the 2 options --> "More expensive" or " As expensive".
About the coffer, unfortunately, it is un true. The drop rate is lowered to around 5% from 20% to get a CW. So most likely prices on lessers will remain constant.
This doesn't have much impact on my analysis above, though, since I used expensive module 2 assumptions.
My analysis shows that costs are <= current costs. At max demand (all resources = Wondrous Bazaar prices) and no WD price changes, module 2 costs =~ current costs in aggregate.
It's possible and entirely likely that some enchants/enhancements will go up and others down. I'm referencing an aggregate impact.
Iyon the Dark
What you post aren't any real calculations. You only post opinions and maybe situations.
Here someone posted a calculation:
So for a R10 it mean:
2944 R4 vs. 4782,08 R4
47,64 PW vs. 606,12 PW
That's -1838,08 R4(you can sell that amount)
And -558,48 PW. So additionally, you say that ALL enchantment get nearly the same price. So we have currently round 4 different, so that mean: 4 Silvery can you sell for 4 needed matching azure and so on. So you have only 1/4 or even less of the before grind to do(you need currently the 4782 Azure R4 to make an Azure R10). Now explain how big the impact will be, that the new freedom of choice will become expensive as the current? The R4 can go up 62%! that you can say 'Uh they cost more for lazy people'. You don't mention, that you can farm them. So that is your first fail in this thread. So how much are the over 500 more PW worth against 21,32(this is still easy to obtain) LM 24 Mark 10 GM?
For a perfect it mean:
32 current shards + other shards/stones/Marks
shards only worth now 540
stones worth depending on her rank
Greater Marks worth 750 and can be obtained on 3(5) days in a week for 5k ad
Lesser Fey can be obtained twice a week and worth 12960 for 20k AD
Or you use instead complete 184 shards.
So assuming: 184 cost so much as 256 before: +39% inflation.
Additionally:
15 CW vs. 85 CW
10 GM
So how much does the +70 CW cost against only 10 GM more?!
The shardprices are bound to 5k for 540|Mark for 750/5k to obtain hyper shard uses.
AND what you still suck at the third: Not farmeable lesser enchantment(your mentioned plaguefire) can be easier developed as before. So NOW show your calculation about how it can be as/more expensive as currently with less needed things!
Price shard will increase because high demand. And for that cost of refining will very expensive.
Pb :
if refining syst are so expensive, many players dont upgrade their enchatment (like today)
if many players dont upgrade = less demand = price shard not increase.
So you can say:
new system will be more expensive ----> stop to do calculat with a 5k shard
new system will be cheaper ----> price shard will increase.
But the both are in opposition
184 shards to make 1 perfect.
Current prices on vorpal shards ( for example) increased from 20,000 to 30,000 ( and is growing)
With the module launch, since we need less now, more people will buy the shards. Means that more demand will be on the shards. Means that they will get higher in price.
Coal wards costs 150k now, because they still drop from coffers with 20% chance. with the new module, they will drop with 4~5% chance and will be BoP. Which will make them go to 200,000~400,000 AD.
Greater marks will be around 80,000 AD each since they are 100,000 on Wondrous bazaar.
Total cost to make 1 perfect : 10,070,000 AD. Assuming demand on vorpal shards will stay @ 30,000 AD. Which is not going to happen.
More demand & More buyers & less amount needed & Same drop rate = higher price. Economy 101- And that's what you fail to understand.
Now for plague fire and tenes, they follow a different route.
To make it simple, RP needed to refine lesser tene/plague = RP needed to refine normal enchant.
RP needed to refine normal tene/plague = RP needed to refine greater enchant.
And since i can;t use "Matching shards" with those, since they don't have shards. IT will be more expensive to refine them than mixing 4 of them on live server.
Side Note: The calculation you posted shows showing the same type of shards/enchants. If you are going to put non-matching type of enchants in the equation, you will see what i mean. Especially with the price growth rate on them atm.
No calculation only big crying. Not more from you.
The shards will be used as 32 if they cost to much for 1,280M. So now we get 5k for each shard, with 540 RP(or you use R4/3 with lesser costs). Okay i checked again the Basar: Flawless Sapphire cost 30k for 5k RP.(don't know if can crit for more RP)
That's about 6M for the shard RP(even less, because they can success with 50% or even 100% more RP with low chance) or ~3,940M for the sapphires.
Additionally that's 15 CW*400k = 6M
+10 GM = 1M = 14,28/12,28M total against your 256*40k + 85*100k= 10,240M + 8,5M = 19,04M VS then 14,32M/12,28M! 4,72M/6,76M LESS
So you don't check mark situation. You are a big fail in this thread with your only complains about a system, that you never seem to understand! The market get the lowest value for the biggest success! If the shards to expensive, then they use other shards/RP-giver! But the old system has it's shame on big more CW needed! They can't be farmed. They can't be bought direct.
Hell! You got from so many ways the needed Rp, that it's total easier!
Caused by advance purchase
More buyers only if system is cheaper...
You scream because system is more expensive , so dont worry about price inflation..
Syst is cheaper = Good thing
Syst is more expensive = no inflation because more more buyers
the economy will equilibrate for itself.
This is why you don't see what i see. I fixed the numbers for you.
You multiply the old system vorpals by 40,000 even though they would cost 20,000 not 40,000 because you needed more of them = they would cost less.
I will repeat it 1 more time, and then i give up on going through your concrete skull.
More demand & More buyers & less amount needed & Same drop rate = higher price.
It's cheaper. But you don't realize that. Your 'fixed' number isn't the reality now. They are currently over 30k each. Second the price of 400k of CW is to much high. I use it for not to far away from your loved to expensive current market situation.
This is an implicit assumption regarding the AD:RP ratio in your analysis, but is not strictly correct.
The cost is 32 shards + ~ 750k RP * AD:RP + 15 coal wards + 10 GMP.
That's 32 x [shard cost] + 15 x [cw cost] + 7 x [GMP cost] + 656,640 x [AD per 1 RP]
Plugging in all high cost assumptions...
32 x [20,000] + 15 x [250,000] + 10 x [100,000] + 656,640 x [6] = 9.3M
More likely estimate using average cost assumptions
32 x [5,000] + 15 x [250,000] + 10 x [50,000] + 656,640 x [3] = 6.4M.
Current cost to make:
256 x [20,000] + 85 x [100,000 (old rate)] = 13.6M
256 x [5,000] + 85 x [100,000] = 9.8M
Lower in both cases. Prayer farmers decreased cost on AH, but seems like they will still be able to since lessers made w/ bound cws won't be bound.
Iyon the Dark
The "Roof" is actually 500k. 1000zen at 500ad:1zen = 500k. Taramalune bars are a gamble, and can run you as high as 1.25 mil AD for a single C.ward (assuming 500 ad1:zen cap and no jackpots, just straight up average booty prize).
Majority of "normal" players plays and dont care about all of that.
And all those test players crying because they buy massive stack of shard and think do massive profits ...
IF new system becomme really more expensive devs will increase drop rate of reagents, of pack for refining ect ... and cost of refining will decrese.
Crying ppl , cry only on their profit expected
False 1 zen = 400AD
Average price depend of drop rate of all lockbox open by all of players ...
Exemple: an archon fire cost 600 -700k for 1000 tarma bar ... If it was difficult to obtain tarma bar , ppl dont buy archon fire to sell it at AH at this price
You need total of 449,280 RP to make a perfect. 4 refined lessers + 1 refined greater
and you need 10 marks, not 7.
AD:RP ratio is defined by the costs of the shards/enchants/ rune stones. Which is undetermined currently, but from what i see, costs are growing on AH.
Edit: nevermind my corrections about marks, you already corrected it while i'm writing.
Edit #2 : The reason why i went with the matching shards calculation , was to reply to the person who posted calculation using matching shards. I know it is cheaper to use the 32 shards + 1216 shards ( rank 5s enchants) method than the matching shards method in cost wise. However the cost of shards/enchants is varying on AH alot depending on how many buyers. So far some shards increased in price and some decreased and all enchants and rune stones increased in price.
No, the roof for zen is 500 AD : 1 zen. Meaning that is the highest it can go making it the roof. Good Dwight impression, down to the very last drop =P.
Ah, you came back and edited your post. Cool, so again, allow me to reiterate that my assumptions are: 500ad:1zen. The average drop rate of Taramalune bars (which seems to be about 10 per box, excluding jackpots). I'll even be nice and assume it's at 20 average and lower to your "ceiling"
Your goal: 200 taramalune bars.
That's 10 boxes
That's 125 zen per key
That's 400 AD per zen
10*125*400 = 500,000 AD.
Make it the true ceiling of 500ad:1zen and keep everything else the same? 625k.
Yup! But we're speaking of Roofs here: i.e. the highest it can go. That'd be the 500AD:1zen mark.
If price increase, Dev s will find solutions to decrease enchantment price !!
you haven t all the elements to your attention and make assumptions.
And only assumptions that you make that are bad for the players.
Its ceiling is defined by the wondrous bazaar saphire (6:1 AD:RP ratio).
Yeah, messed a few things up there initially in my napkin math.
Iyon the Dark
Assuming that's directed at me, given there's no quote and this has been a short, ongoing conversation. The only assumption in the equation are the average drop rates of T.bars (once again, excluding jackpots). To clarify, I'm not assuming that the zen:ad ratio is going to max out. We're talking roofs/ceilings here, I am simply using what exists, as are every other bits of my variables a constant. Would you like it included with keys being discounted, too? Because the difference isn't that high and key discounts only tend to happen before the release of a new lockbox.
So, these are worst case scenario, "roofs." RNG is RNG and you are not guranteed a jackpot, so it's entirely possible to never get it (just like some people with shadow wolves ;3).
So the only element I'm missing is the t.bar, and 20 per box I'd reckon is rather high based off of my own anecdotal experience and that which I've read across the forums.
If you're going to talk roofs and ceilings, be prepared to see roof/ceiling prices.