I don't know if this has been mentioned in this thread yet and I'm not going to read all the posts to check, but atm on PC it makes more sense to buy coal wards and sell those for AD than use the ZAX and this may be why it is so slow. Even though I swore black and blue I would not spend another cent on the game after what they have done, a week or two ago I was in one of those moods where even though I have several million rough AD sitting there being refined every day which I grind for faithfully every day and the amount keeps going up over and above my 100k refine allowance, I didn't want to wait to get what I wanted and wanted it then and there so I relented and bought 20k zen. I checked both options on that day, both using a direct exchange using the ZAX, or buy 2 coal wards and put them on the AH. The AH won because even after the AH cut I still came out ahead over a hundred grand. People are going to do whatever gives the most AD for their zen, they would be stupid not to. So if the ZAX is not working as it should, it's maybe because people are still buying zen, but they're using it to buy coal wards instead as it gives a better amount of AD.
Apparently pointing-out the bleeding obvious is a 'personal attack'.
@rockster#6227 the thread, was in part a joke started by @blargskull who "challenged someone to track the zen AD exchange rate. I am his neighbor and also work from home, so I took up his task and made some spread sheets to track the flow of posting date to receipt. The spreadsheet may need to be adjusted but seems accurate enough. I think most people are aware of the cycle; convert AD to Zen, buy items in the store, sell on the market for AD and repeat. That is the whole problem there is a backlog, no one wants to give away Zen for AD. I believe the few that drop Zen into the exchange either don't care or they don't know they could make more selling such items. But the thread is an attempt to allow users to know some estimate on when they should see Zen in the future. It is not a perfect forecast but very close to accurate within plus or minus a few days.
@odanobunaga#4974 I believe you mean you posted late December and not late January, early January hasn't arrived yet. Unless something drastically alters the forecast, players posting today will not see Zen until mid January of 2022.
@hotfrostworm my experience with the ZAX was that for a long long time I didn't know it was even there, like for years. When I did find out what it was I looked at it and it seemed scary and strange so I still didn't really find out much about it let alone use it. I often bought zen back then but I used to buy coal wards and sell them to get AD because they sold fast. One day I got off my backside and looked at the ZAX properly and tried it out and I found I was actually getting less for coal wards at around 500kAD each at the time than I would have if I'd done the ZAX lol. So I started using the ZAX when I bought zen because it made me more AD. Now it seems back to front when the ZAX rate is the same but coal wards are now selling for around 900k. I really like the idea of monitoring it in this thread though, it provides people with some really useful insights. Word on the street is that the wait currently is generally around 6 months, don't know if that's correct or not. You would generally use the ZAX to support the community and keep the wheels turning and help-out players who can't afford real cash, but atm it will cost you a couple of hundred thousand AD to do it, so the saying "no good deed goes unpunished" definitely applies in this case.
Apparently pointing-out the bleeding obvious is a 'personal attack'.
I placed 3,750,000 ADs in late January into the exchange and several days ago, I received my Zen.
Uh, what?
I have 2 orders of that size dtd 1/12/21 and as of today, 5/24/21 they are still not filled. If your dates are accurate then somebody has some splainin' to do.
I placed 3,750,000 ADs in late January into the exchange and several days ago, I received my Zen.
Uh, what?
I have 2 orders of that size dtd 1/12/21 and as of today, 5/24/21 they are still not filled. If your dates are accurate then somebody has some splainin' to do.
@hotfrostworm told me the other day, that he will only "bump" the forecast spreadsheet, if he observes more than a few days difference. This is the only user stating this extreme range, I assume @kharkov58 is correct suspecting the user is on XB1 or PS4. Unfortunately you won't be seeing your Zen for at least another month.
I admit I was goofing around when I started this thread, maybe the joke is on me?
Just killing time...
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
edited May 2021
odanobunaga made 3 bug reports in PC forum. It appears they are PC specific. He made no posting in XBox or PS4 forum. Hence, the chance is he forgot when exactly he made Zen posting.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
odanobunaga made 3 bug reports in PC forum. It appears they are PC specific. He made no posting in XBox or PS4 forum. Hence, the chance is he forgot when exactly he made Zen posting.
He could have miscounted. If he had 5 orders in the queue, he could have counted back 4 in his log by mistake.
0
adinosiiMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 4,294Arc User
edited May 2021
Yea, no way this is accurate. I did post the details for my last trade that went through...I have 5x 5000 Zen trades in the queue and one of them should have been filled already if this was accurate.
posted on 21.01.2021 and still nothing unfortunately
If you look over in column D on my spreadsheet you will see, I don't anticipate that to arrive until July 4th. If you need the link to my spreadsheet, it is linked above in 3rd message from the top of this page. Keep us posted when it arrives.
I think we were close to 70M queue at that time, so 0.48M/day processing rate.
I am tweaking the spread sheet now. This is a reduction of more than a week from what I was forecasting. If that trend continues the backlog will start to decrease.
@adinosii estimating July 9th for your next order, unless the 4th of July event changes it one direction or the other. I am still curious to some degree, if they plan to take any action in the next module. I don't see anything they can do about this, it would send repercussions to the other 2 functional exchanges.
For example, removal of the backlog was attempted before, it just fills up again. Raising the cap was tried in the past, and it made it worse than before. If they wait until the release of Magic the Gathering, combine all 4 games markets, that would create an issue, flooding the 70 million backlog across all four games. I am assuming Magic the Gathering has a Zen exchange? If not, maybe they plan to simply pull all the exchanges out. Afterwards state, Zen is a cash only currency, install a patriot currency for daily login and hours played. I expect there is nothing they can do, therefor they will do nothing.
Meanwhile, I am watching this thread for the minor changes, plus or minus 5 days. Mr. Blargskull is still in Texas, on business. His 10 Zen he posting at the start of this thread, won't arrive until late July.
1544 zen, posted Jan 15, received this morning, June 15. Got a bunch more up January 21st, iirc that was from the bonding runestones, so we're about at the part where it's going to really slow down.
Well, they're doing something... selling C. Wards for AD through the Wondrous Bazaar at the moment, but since you can only buy 1 per account, that's not going to have a noticeable impact on the ZAX.
Has anyone ever run a post tracking the opposite side of this economy?
I really appreciate the point of this thread, providing actual live market guidance on expectations for the ZAX. But it assumes there's a consistent market on the other side of the equation selling Zen, and I have not seen many, if any folks posting about that activity. And yet, Zen orders get filled, regularly, as this extensive thread has proven.
I'm just really curious about what the likelihood is that Cryptic has their thumb on the scale to some degree, propping up or controlling the market by how much they are willing to directly convert from AD to Zen daily?
Has anyone ever run a post tracking the opposite side of this economy?
I really appreciate the point of this thread, providing actual live market guidance on expectations for the ZAX. But it assumes there's a consistent market on the other side of the equation selling Zen, and I have not seen many, if any folks posting about that activity. And yet, Zen orders get filled, regularly, as this extensive thread has proven.
I'm just really curious about what the likelihood is that Cryptic has their thumb on the scale to some degree, propping up or controlling the market by how much they are willing to directly convert from AD to Zen daily?
for me it would be easy to reduce the disadvantage would be enough to put a bonus every now and then example those who convert 5,000 zen receive 10% more ad or those who convert 10,000 receive 15% more ad and those who convert 24,000 receive 25% more ad, so that people would have one more reason to earn zen in ad and the disadvantage would be reduced but cryptic seems to be making money in this situation and does nothing.
Adding bonus AD to zen sales would just contribute to the AD inflation already in the game. Cryptic claims to be trying to reduce the amount of AD in the game. (Not that their policies back up that claim)
0
adinosiiMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 4,294Arc User
They could do a lot of things. One approach would be to have two versions of Zen, call it "Gold Zen" that you get for money and "Silver Zen" that you get for exchanging AD....with the difference being that anything you buy for "Gold Zen" is unbound, while stuff bought with "Silver Zen" is BtA.
Not perfect, but it would break the Zen-> buy stuff->Sell on AH->convert to Zen cycle.
Comments
@odanobunaga#4974 I believe you mean you posted late December and not late January, early January hasn't arrived yet. Unless something drastically alters the forecast, players posting today will not see Zen until mid January of 2022.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I have 2 orders of that size dtd 1/12/21 and as of today, 5/24/21 they are still not filled. If your dates are accurate then somebody has some splainin' to do.
I admit I was goofing around when I started this thread, maybe the joke is on me?
Just killing time...
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
So around 147 days.
I think we were close to 70M queue at that time, so 0.48M/day processing rate.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Some random data, zen requested on a day
67,077,634 24Feb21
67,313,570 26Feb21
68,985,189 09Mar21
69,176,442 14Mar21
69,100,749 19Mar21
69,604,000 29Mar21
I'm fairly sure immediately before the bonding bounty it was 49mill, i didn't write it down though. Memory may be faulty there.
The spreadsheet predicted 6/10, so just about spot on. Way better than my local weather people at predicting storms.
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
For example, removal of the backlog was attempted before, it just fills up again. Raising the cap was tried in the past, and it made it worse than before. If they wait until the release of Magic the Gathering, combine all 4 games markets, that would create an issue, flooding the 70 million backlog across all four games. I am assuming Magic the Gathering has a Zen exchange? If not, maybe they plan to simply pull all the exchanges out. Afterwards state, Zen is a cash only currency, install a patriot currency for daily login and hours played. I expect there is nothing they can do, therefor they will do nothing.
Meanwhile, I am watching this thread for the minor changes, plus or minus 5 days. Mr. Blargskull is still in Texas, on business. His 10 Zen he posting at the start of this thread, won't arrive until late July.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I really appreciate the point of this thread, providing actual live market guidance on expectations for the ZAX. But it assumes there's a consistent market on the other side of the equation selling Zen, and I have not seen many, if any folks posting about that activity. And yet, Zen orders get filled, regularly, as this extensive thread has proven.
I'm just really curious about what the likelihood is that Cryptic has their thumb on the scale to some degree, propping up or controlling the market by how much they are willing to directly convert from AD to Zen daily?
those who convert 5,000 zen receive 10% more ad or those who convert 10,000 receive 15% more ad and those who convert 24,000 receive 25% more ad, so that people would have one more reason to earn zen in ad and the disadvantage would be reduced but cryptic seems to be making money in this situation and does nothing.
Not perfect, but it would break the Zen-> buy stuff->Sell on AH->convert to Zen cycle.