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ZAX - Duration Testing

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  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 479 Arc User
    edited April 2021
    Just copying my table over here. For easy access.
    AD INZEN OUTHIT or MISS
    11/7/203/5/21119 days
    11/15/203/18/21HIT!
    11/16/203/21/21125 days
    11/17/203/21/21MISstake! oops...
    11/24/204/1/21129 days
    11/24/204/2/21130 days
    11/25/204/3/21130 days
    11/27/204/6/21131 days, Miss! +1 day
    11/29/204/9/21?
    11/29/204/9/21?
    12/1/204/14/21134 days
    12/2/204/14/21?
    12/14/205/3/21?
    12/14/205/3/21?
    12/14/205/3/21?
    12/25/205/21/21?
    12/30/205/29/21?
    1/19/216/30/21?
    1/26/217/11/21?
    2/2/217/22/21?
    3/3/219/7/21?
    3/6/219/12/21?
    I hate to admit it, but it looks like the his formula predicts @tchefi#6735 's Nov. 27 - April 6th, is going to be hit or maybe a day early. If he has most these on the correct day, I really need Mr. Black at the casino with me. :trollface:
    Post edited by blargskull on

    Just killing time...
  • vastianivastiani Member Posts: 1 Arc User
    Got ZEN today 4/3/21 from an offer posted on 11/25/20.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,074 Arc User
    My 11/25/20 posting still does not arrive. However, I have just checked the exchange log. I made that posting on Nov 25, 2020 at 11:12pm EST. :)
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 479 Arc User

    My 11/25/20 posting still does not arrive. However, I have just checked the exchange log. I made that posting on Nov 25, 2020 at 11:12pm EST. :)

    Posted almost at midnight, it will most likely arrive in the morning. Just like good old Captain "Dread Pirate" Roberts would tell me, "Good night Blargskull. . Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning." :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 317 Arc User
    edited April 2021

    Just copying my table over here. For easy access.

    I hate to admit it, but it looks like the his formula predicts @tchefi#6735 's Nov. 27 - April 6th, is going to be hit or maybe a day early. If he has most these on the correct day, I really need Mr. Black at the casino with me. :trollface:

    ^^. so far so good as I haven't recieved my Zen yet ;). Your prediction being accurate for me will be decided during the next 3 days (as i'm magnanimous, I let you have a +/- 1 day of margin my dear Great Oracle of the Zax :D)
  • sandukutupusandukutupu Member Posts: 2,277 Arc User
    LOL @blargskull You don't even go to the casino! Isn't against your religion? Besides, I have taken my husband to the casino with me before and all he does it watch me lose and drink free pop. When I asked him to go play Black Jack or something, he tells me, no thanks and says they would probably toss him out for counting cards. Do you even buy state lottery tickets? You know we have to keep the schools in business. Gambling in Michigan is your civic duty! :grin:

    I have to get back to playing this game for now, but good work keeping track of this for those with the investment. I know you are not very serious about it. However this is a very positive and uplifting thread you started for the players here. :heart:
    wb-cenders.gif
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 479 Arc User

    LOL @blargskull You don't even go to the casino! Isn't against your religion? Besides, I have taken my husband to the casino with me before and all he does it watch me lose and drink free pop. When I asked him to go play Black Jack or something, he tells me, no thanks and says they would probably toss him out for counting cards. Do you even buy state lottery tickets? You know we have to keep the schools in business. Gambling in Michigan is your civic duty! :grin:


    Against my religion? No it is against my education of probabilities. I also don't buy lotto tickets to support the school system. As you know, I don't own any children as of yet. I have thought of renting them especially before April 15th. :trollface:


    I have to get back to playing this game for now, but good work keeping track of this for those with the investment. I know you are not very serious about it. However this is a very positive and uplifting thread you started for the players here. :heart:

    How dare you contradict my real intensions, my long term goal here is to link the zen backlog to the chem-trail and JFK 7th shooter theories.


    Just killing time...
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,074 Arc User
    edited April 2021

    My 11/25/20 posting still does not arrive. However, I have just checked the exchange log. I made that posting on Nov 25, 2020 at 11:12pm EST. :)

    This one is fulfilled at 5:11am on April 5.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 317 Arc User
    edited April 2021



    I hate to admit it, but it looks like the his formula predicts @tchefi#6735 's Nov. 27 - April 6th, is going to be hit or maybe a day early. If he has most these on the correct day, I really need Mr. Black at the casino with me. :trollface:

    It was not mine, but Magnus one.
    November 27th Zen purchase order was delivered this morning, on April 7th (CEST, i will check the exact hours later if you want)

    2 others are incoming, posted both on 29th November.
  • sandukutupusandukutupu Member Posts: 2,277 Arc User
    @tchefi#6735 he is in Ohio, @blargskull went to a sporting event there with friends and should be back on Friday. My husband also left town on business and @hotfrostworm will be online Friday or Saturday. Sounds like they are not too concerned about hours as much as days. Good job helping them out with the information. :heart:
    wb-cenders.gif
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 479 Arc User
    Thanks, we just rolled in this morning, I am going to get some sleep. It is very hard to get sleep when everyone is talking in the minivan. :tired_face: Maybe I would have got some sleep, if I was driving, :trollface:

    I added Magnus post to the list above. The "Zen Oracle" was off by a day.

    Just killing time...
  • sandukutupusandukutupu Member Posts: 2,277 Arc User
    I just responded to a PS4 user who apparently is either buying Zen or waiting on it to arrive. I will remind Brian to set some time aside this weekend to crunch some numbers here. I don't think he will mind too much. Just a reminder, today is the last day to file your taxes!
    wb-cenders.gif
  • sanatorysanatory Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 21 Arc User
    broken economy for over 5 years nothing new
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 377 Arc User
    To sum this up, there is a calculable gradual rise to the number of days waited between postings and receipt of Zen.




    This graph above shows the growth of time from July 25th to November 27th over a period of 4 months. It appears to be rising at roughly 0.6 days per day. That is about 14.5 hours more added to the wait time per day between postings. This can be changed by several factors that have been discussed on the forum many times already. This study, for my part, was to find this baseline calculation for you.

    If you will excuse me, I have work and bills to pay. I hope you remembered, today is the last day to file your tax return by mail.
  • dragovf82dragovf82 Member Posts: 11 Arc User
    my zax exchange:

    03/16/2020 04/17/2020
    06/09/2020 07/16/2020
    08/15/2020 10/15/2020
    10/15/2020 01/25/2021
    01/25/2021 still pending
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 479 Arc User
    dragovf82 said:

    my zax exchange:

    03/16/2020 04/17/2020
    06/09/2020 07/16/2020
    08/15/2020 10/15/2020
    10/15/2020 01/25/2021
    01/25/2021 still pending

    January 25th is +59 days after the last reported return posted above 11/27/20 to 4/6/21. If I am doing my math right 131 + (59 * 0.6) = 131 +35.4 = 166 days or more in total. Since 80 days has gone by.... 86 more to go? If I am doing this right, July 10th or later.



    Just killing time...
  • someonediessomeonedies Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,257 Arc User
    edited April 2021
    7 months for 70m backlog, confirmed.
    Rimuru?
    Dead 🔪
  • kharkov58kharkov58 Member Posts: 623 Arc User
    My order place Dec 1 arrived April 14
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 377 Arc User
    edited April 2021

    7 months for 70m backlog, confirmed.

    By the end of May anything posted, according to my projections, you will be waiting until next year.

    For a daily forecast Dec. 1st to April 30th click here.
  • someonediessomeonedies Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,257 Arc User

    7 months for 70m backlog, confirmed.

    By the end of May anything posted, according to my projections, you will be waiting until next year.

    For a daily forecast Dec. 1st to April 30th click here.
    what's why I no longer spend Zen, only if there is something very very valuable available.
    I got mine 25k a week ago, request was made in November, backlog was 60kk or so, maybe someone confirm the exact number.
    Rimuru?
    Dead 🔪
  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,972 Arc User
    edited April 2021
    Well, if they had combined a working ZEN Charge Promotion with a better Weekend sale, 20% is a joke considering that you can get 20% discount coupons from invoking bags or drops, then may be we would have seen a bit more ZEN going into the ZAX...
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • sobacsobac Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 415 Arc User
    Got mine this morning, Apr.16th. Ordered Dec. 1st, 2020.
  • kharkov58kharkov58 Member Posts: 623 Arc User
    That means it took at least 2 days to fill the orders for Dec 1, since mine filled on Apr 14.
  • liadan1984#8734 liadan1984 Member Posts: 258 Arc User
    my 2 orders placed 1st dec both came through 15th April.
  • sandukutupusandukutupu Member Posts: 2,277 Arc User

    7 months for 70m backlog, confirmed.

    By the end of May anything posted, according to my projections, you will be waiting until next year.

    For a daily forecast Dec. 1st to April 30th click here.
    With the exception of the decimal places, the days waiting looks like my blood glucose readings! But mine will be much higher by Christmas. :lol: My husband says anyone is welcome to take over on data tracking. We expect that will be off from time to time mainly due to human factors.

    See you next weekend! :heart:
    wb-cenders.gif
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 317 Arc User
    Didn't had the time to post here last week :
    November 29th 2020 was completed on April 10th 2021

    next pending orders i know about (mine or friends of mine) are :
    9th december 2020
    14th december 2020
    15th december 2020


  • sandukutupusandukutupu Member Posts: 2,277 Arc User

    Didn't had the time to post here last week :
    November 29th 2020 was completed on April 10th 2021

    next pending orders i know about (mine or friends of mine) are :
    9th december 2020
    14th december 2020
    15th december 2020


    I don't think @blargskull is home? According to my husband's forecast.

    12/9/2020 - 138.8 - 4/26/2021
    12/14/2020 - 141.8 - 5/4/2021
    12/15/2020 - 142.4 - 5/6/2021

    I know you are use to DD/MM/YY and he used MM/DD/YY on his spreadsheet.
    wb-cenders.gif
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 377 Arc User

    Didn't had the time to post here last week :
    November 29th 2020 was completed on April 10th 2021

    next pending orders i know about (mine or friends of mine) are :
    9th december 2020
    14th december 2020
    15th december 2020


    I don't think @blargskull is home? According to my husband's forecast.

    12/9/2020 - 138.8 - 4/26/2021
    12/14/2020 - 141.8 - 5/4/2021
    12/15/2020 - 142.4 - 5/6/2021

    I know you are use to DD/MM/YY and he used MM/DD/YY on his spreadsheet.
    Please know those estimates could be offset by a few days in either direction. Unless a vast change occurs (as some players are predicting) anyone posting AD for Zen in May will certainly be waiting until Christmas.
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 317 Arc User
    edited April 2021
    @sandukutupu @hotfrostworm in fact, i made my own sheet for my (and friends) forecasting ^^, i just share my recent data here with you ;).
    By the way, we currently get approximatively the same number about the "rising" of the Zax => 0.612 in mine with the last input on 11/29/2020 fulfilled on 10/04/2021.
    I'm waiting for the moment when demands "post bonding stones update" in the Zax are starting to be fulfilled as it will surely show a singularity.
  • utookmynickutookmynick Member Posts: 200 Arc User
    edited May 2021
    Increased exchange times causes players to not spend their ZEN, causing p/c wards and token prices to go up and that in turn incentivizes people to be patient and sell wards/tokens on AH instead of buying AD directly off ZAX and hence the "virtuous" cycle continues.

    The only people buying AD on ZAX are either the whales who do not care and are impatient or the new players who do not know better. How many of either can there possibly be nowadays?
    Post edited by utookmynick on
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