I take it no one has got any Zen to report? I guess the dry spell has started.
It is not moving (or moving like watching the grass grow). A poster above reported his Jan 21 order was fulfilled on Jun 27. Today, July 3, my Jan 21 order (9:43pm EST) is still not processed. I think the queue is now hitting the bonding mass.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
I assume many January 21st orders will consume the weeks ahead. According to the posting on the prior page, @alistairetheblu#7442 stated, that is when the backlog swelled by 8 million. Since roughly 400,000 zen seems to be processed daily, it could be 20 days chewing through that fat. Even more, should sellers slow down on contributing their zen.
Well, i guess it will only get worse with Mod 21 - probably not much worse, but it might take up to a year before we'll see any ZEN from the ZAX considering even more AD is being pumped into the game through giving players AD instead of actual ZEN refunds for various items, without adding more working AD sinks to the game.
Anyway, at this point i'm actually baffled that people are still spending money on the game, and that at least some ZEN is still finding it's way into the ZAX...
Btw. does anyone know what to do with Knox's Adventurer Recruitment Orders? Got two of them, and no real idea what's going to happen to them with Mod 21, i logged into the Preview Server today, and couldn't find anything about them there either...
Btw. does anyone know what to do with Knox's Adventurer Recruitment Orders? Got two of them, and no real idea what's going to happen to them with Mod 21, i logged into the Preview Server today, and couldn't find anything about them there either...
Last time the recruitment event was up, I think there was a NPC who traded those for stuff near where we used to have the recycling in the 7 suns market. But I may be mistaking for something else :P and it's also possible the NPC is only active when the event is up ^^.
Btw. does anyone know what to do with Knox's Adventurer Recruitment Orders? Got two of them, and no real idea what's going to happen to them with Mod 21, i logged into the Preview Server today, and couldn't find anything about them there either...
Last time the recruitment event was up, I think there was a NPC who traded those for stuff near where we used to have the recycling in the 7 suns market. But I may be mistaking for something else :P and it's also possible the NPC is only active when the event is up ^^.
Edit: Looks like we'll be able to exchange the old pack for a new one, and it will give us a max. level character directly. I guess we've to wait and see how much AD will be generated through all the other new trade in options...
I will step down that way to discuss the spreadsheet with him. I am curious what he plans are, I think he was talking about waiting on anyone who posted for zen on January 22nd.
Yes, the spreadsheet states we should be doing Jan. 27th at this point based on the +0.6 growth factor. Instead the exchange seems to be stuck on the 21st since the last reports. I am going to just highlight the area in blue (as in frozen) and update when we get movement. Any data updates at this point would be trivial.
@plasticbat projecting from the dates alone, ignoring timezone and the pesky international dateline... the first day of the "big burp" has consumed at least 12 days of June and July. That increases my ratio from +0.6 days (14.4 hours) per day to roughly 2 weeks to clear just the one day. Which is a positive thing, it means there are still players tossing Zen into the exchange much more than I expected.
If we are on the last 4 to 6 hours of that long day, those last few hours could last a week or more.
Zen ordered 8 30 PM ,21th of Jan, arrived 5 35 PM 6th of July
Mine was posted at 9:43pm on the same day (Jun 21st). I still do not have it. I wonder how long it will take to move through that hour.
Edit: it is probably more than one hour because I don't think we are in the same time zone. I am in Eastern time.
UTC/GMT +2 here
2:30 PM EST is conversion, it will be very interesting to know when yours arrives @plasticbat . If it takes 1 day for every hour of the 21st, your zen should be 1 full week from @palosi#1093 . I am guessing about the 15th or 16th. That is just a guess, I don't have near enough data to make a good estimation.
Zen ordered 8 30 PM ,21th of Jan, arrived 5 35 PM 6th of July
Mine was posted at 9:43pm on the same day (Jun 21st). I still do not have it. I wonder how long it will take to move through that hour.
Edit: it is probably more than one hour because I don't think we are in the same time zone. I am in Eastern time.
UTC/GMT +2 here
2:30 PM EST is conversion, it will be very interesting to know when yours arrives @plasticbat . If it takes 1 day for every hour of the 21st, your zen should be 1 full week from @palosi#1093 . I am guessing about the 15th or 16th. That is just a guess, I don't have near enough data to make a good estimation.
One full week from @palosi#1093 posting (received on July 6) would be July 13.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
I get my 5000 zen today from my 21 jan. 3H26 PM (Eastern US-Canada Time zone) order...
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,403Arc User
A few days ago in game chat, some random player asked how long it takes to process AD to Zen. Someone else responded 6 months. I didn't have the heart to tell them. But I did respond like this;
Me: Well I posted a request for 10 zen back in February and it still hasn't arrived yet. Them: 10? Me: Yes 10 zen. Them: What can you buy for only 10 zen? Me: I have BIG plans. Them: lol
A few days ago in game chat, some random player asked how long it takes to process AD to Zen. Someone else responded 6 months. I didn't have the heart to tell them.
Heart to tell them what though? That should be about right. It was "about 5 months" and this 1 speed bump added 3-4 weeks. It's not like that AD flood was an ongoing thing. There's no reason to think the pace itself changed.
A few days ago in game chat, some random player asked how long it takes to process AD to Zen. Someone else responded 6 months. I didn't have the heart to tell them.
Heart to tell them what though? That should be about right. It was "about 5 months" and this 1 speed bump added 3-4 weeks. It's not like that AD flood was an ongoing thing. There's no reason to think the pace itself changed.
This was some new buyer who put their AD in about a week ago expecting a fast turn around. Anyone placing orders today should not expect to get a return until summer of next year. That is what I didn't inform them about.
10:58:10 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 09:12:09 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750 09:13:48 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750 Time zone is UTC+2
So given the last entry from palosi#1093 as 'Zen ordered 8 30 PM ,21th of Jan, arrived 5 35 PM 6th of July' 2:28:10h later posted resulted in 123:38:48h later received (~50h extra per h)
I have one posted at 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 Will post when it arrives.
A few days ago in game chat, some random player asked how long it takes to process AD to Zen. Someone else responded 6 months. I didn't have the heart to tell them.
Heart to tell them what though? That should be about right. It was "about 5 months" and this 1 speed bump added 3-4 weeks. It's not like that AD flood was an ongoing thing. There's no reason to think the pace itself changed.
This was some new buyer who put their AD in about a week ago expecting a fast turn around. Anyone placing orders today should not expect to get a return until summer of next year. That is what I didn't inform them about.
At the end of june 2021 the waiting time was set to be 249d-269d for new purchase orders according to my own predictions, but it was without taking in account the BondingRunes bump nor its more longterm effects.
It was obvious we would get a singularity on 21st january zen purchase orders. But there will also be a longterm influence as the bump only represents people who weren't already running 5x zen purchase orders. People who were running 5x 1k to 4k zen orders (mid october-end december 2020 period, so completed between february to may 2021) had likely waited those orders to be completed rather than canceled them to get 5x5k zen running, so their AD from BondingRunes will very probably show up later, at least partially, after the bump and in a more distributed way. In my opinion, after the singularity (22nd-24th january week-end will also adds its part in it), we can probably expect the increase rate of the Zax waiting time to be shifted to 0.7-0.9 during 3-4 months rather than in the vicinty of 0.6.
When you think about it... jubile 2020 the backlog was ~32M blackfriday 2020 it was ~40M jubilee 2021, up to ~70M...
38M more in backlog during last year (jubilee from jubilee), 30M in the last 7 months.
For me, it is as impressive as mod13-14-15 crazyness (0-47M in 13 months). As a reminder, we were on a 500ad:1zen max... and at this time, this unprecedented building up of the backlog was one of the reasons why they switched the Zax cap to 750ad:1zen at mod16 release.
To be honest, the 1000ad:1zen is probably in all minds now (even though it's not really a solution at all if they want to prevent the backlog from building permanently up...)
To be honest, the 1000ad:1zen is probably in all minds now (even though it's not really a solution at all if they want to prevent the backlog from building permanently up...)
If you ingest more calories than you burn, you grow fat... Increasing the ration from 750 AD to 1000 AD per ZEN only changes the time to re-fill your ZAX order from 37.5 days to 50 days on your 100k RAD per day basis. (Not considering AH deals to further increase your AD) We were at ~101 days waittime in January before the bump (my Oct 12th order came in on the morning of Jan 21st, I can provide my log to interested parties). The backlog will hardly go down if there is no other AD sink.
People like myself would still instantly be able to fill 5x 5k zen orders even at 2,000:1. All increasing the rate will do is reset people's wait times, cause another backlash they really don't need right now and devalue AD further to the point of a new player getting anywhere without spending is highly unlikely.
But hey, go for it. I mean, I can login right after the patch and easily quadruple my value!
10:58:10 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 09:12:09 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750 09:13:48 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750 Time zone is UTC+2
So given the last entry from palosi#1093 as 'Zen ordered 8 30 PM ,21th of Jan, arrived 5 35 PM 6th of July' 2:28:10h later posted resulted in 123:38:48h later received (~50h extra per h)
I have one posted at 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 Will post when it arrives.
Mr. Black is waiting to see a January 22nd order too.
But I will estimate using what I now call "The Palosi-Gildriador Scale".
EST - Jan. 21st 2:30 PM Palosi received zen July 6th 3:26 PM Gildriador received zen July 9th 4:30 PM ... July 12th (today) 5:30 PM ... July 15th 6:30 PM ... July 18th 7:30 PM ... July 21st 8:30 PM ... July 24th 9:30 PM ... July 27th 10:30 PM ... July 30th 11:30 PM ... August!
The backlog has dropped since it almost hit 71 mil 3-4 days ago. Closer to 69 mil now. Not a huge swing, but also factor in that the bonding cashin should be a 1 time post for many players. Meaning, many players got a influx of AD form the bonding and made ZAX listings. Many of which, never had that much AD on hand, or ever posted a listing. Once their ZAX flips from Jan, many of them will not have AD to post again. Yes, the whales will have 5 listings to post again the moment their ZAX flips, but the people that used bonding AD to put ZAX listing, should go down. Curious to see if goes closer to 6 months+, or closer to 5 months again by end of July.
Well, i'd guess there're still a lot of Bonding Runestones floating around in game, being it just somewhere on an alt. character from an active player, or on main characters from returning players...
I'd suggest that Astral Lockboxes should stay in the Wondrous Bazaar and only the sale itself should be time limited.
As mentioned above, Mod 21 will see more items being turned into AD, and this trade in might not be as big as the one for Bonding Runestones, but it will add more AD to the ZAX backlog and probably also increase Auction House prices again.
There is really no point in rising the ZAX ratio - every ratio is about to create a backlog because the most wanted items are either coming form Zen market or are actually not trade-able (bound). The only reason someone is selling Zen for AD is either charity or not caring about the obvious losses.
Now this is freaky, it seems the bump is gone because: 51 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 51 07:12:05 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750 51 07:12:07 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750 UTC+2
Comments
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Anyway, at this point i'm actually baffled that people are still spending money on the game, and that at least some ZEN is still finding it's way into the ZAX...
Btw. does anyone know what to do with Knox's Adventurer Recruitment Orders? Got two of them, and no real idea what's going to happen to them with Mod 21, i logged into the Preview Server today, and couldn't find anything about them there either...
https://neverwinter.fandom.com/wiki/Knox's_Adventurer_Recruitment_Order
from the store, the pack was removed from the store recently.
Edit: Looks like we'll be able to exchange the old pack for a new one, and it will give us a max. level character directly. I guess we've to wait and see how much AD will be generated through all the other new trade in options...
Meanwhile check out this thread on STO about Dilithium sinks... is this even the same company?
Just killing time...
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Edit: it is probably more than one hour because I don't think we are in the same time zone. I am in Eastern time.
If we are on the last 4 to 6 hours of that long day, those last few hours could last a week or more.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
I think I might be waiting on my 10 zen until Christmas after all.
Just killing time...
Me: Well I posted a request for 10 zen back in February and it still hasn't arrived yet.
Them: 10?
Me: Yes 10 zen.
Them: What can you buy for only 10 zen?
Me: I have BIG plans.
Them: lol
Just killing time...
Just killing time...
09:12:09 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750
09:13:48 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750
Time zone is UTC+2
So given the last entry from palosi#1093 as 'Zen ordered 8 30 PM ,21th of Jan, arrived 5 35 PM 6th of July'
2:28:10h later posted resulted in 123:38:48h later received (~50h extra per h)
I have one posted at 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
Will post when it arrives.
It was obvious we would get a singularity on 21st january zen purchase orders. But there will also be a longterm influence as the bump only represents people who weren't already running 5x zen purchase orders.
People who were running 5x 1k to 4k zen orders (mid october-end december 2020 period, so completed between february to may 2021) had likely waited those orders to be completed rather than canceled them to get 5x5k zen running, so their AD from BondingRunes will very probably show up later, at least partially, after the bump and in a more distributed way.
In my opinion, after the singularity (22nd-24th january week-end will also adds its part in it), we can probably expect the increase rate of the Zax waiting time to be shifted to 0.7-0.9 during 3-4 months rather than in the vicinty of 0.6.
When you think about it...
jubile 2020 the backlog was ~32M
blackfriday 2020 it was ~40M
jubilee 2021, up to ~70M...
38M more in backlog during last year (jubilee from jubilee), 30M in the last 7 months.
For me, it is as impressive as mod13-14-15 crazyness (0-47M in 13 months).
As a reminder, we were on a 500ad:1zen max... and at this time, this unprecedented building up of the backlog was one of the reasons why they switched the Zax cap to 750ad:1zen at mod16 release.
To be honest, the 1000ad:1zen is probably in all minds now (even though it's not really a solution at all if they want to prevent the backlog from building permanently up...)
Increasing the ration from 750 AD to 1000 AD per ZEN only changes the time to re-fill your ZAX order from 37.5 days to 50 days on your 100k RAD per day basis. (Not considering AH deals to further increase your AD) We were at ~101 days waittime in January before the bump (my Oct 12th order came in on the morning of Jan 21st, I can provide my log to interested parties).
The backlog will hardly go down if there is no other AD sink.
But hey, go for it. I mean, I can login right after the patch and easily quadruple my value!
But I will estimate using what I now call "The Palosi-Gildriador Scale".
EST - Jan. 21st
2:30 PM Palosi received zen July 6th
3:26 PM Gildriador received zen July 9th
4:30 PM ... July 12th (today)
5:30 PM ... July 15th
6:30 PM ... July 18th
7:30 PM ... July 21st
8:30 PM ... July 24th
9:30 PM ... July 27th
10:30 PM ... July 30th
11:30 PM ... August!
Just killing time...
I'd suggest that Astral Lockboxes should stay in the Wondrous Bazaar and only the sale itself should be time limited.
As mentioned above, Mod 21 will see more items being turned into AD, and this trade in might not be as big as the one for Bonding Runestones, but it will add more AD to the ZAX backlog and probably also increase Auction House prices again.
51 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
51 07:12:05 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750
51 07:12:07 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750
UTC+2