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ZAX - Duration Testing

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  • sandukutupusandukutupu Member Posts: 2,276 Arc User

    I placed 3,750,000 ADs in late January into the exchange and several days ago, I received my Zen.

    Can you look in the log and give the dates posted and received?
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  • rockster#6227 rockster Member Posts: 821 Arc User
    I don't know if this has been mentioned in this thread yet and I'm not going to read all the posts to check, but atm on PC it makes more sense to buy coal wards and sell those for AD than use the ZAX and this may be why it is so slow. Even though I swore black and blue I would not spend another cent on the game after what they have done, a week or two ago I was in one of those moods where even though I have several million rough AD sitting there being refined every day which I grind for faithfully every day and the amount keeps going up over and above my 100k refine allowance, I didn't want to wait to get what I wanted and wanted it then and there so I relented and bought 20k zen. I checked both options on that day, both using a direct exchange using the ZAX, or buy 2 coal wards and put them on the AH. The AH won because even after the AH cut I still came out ahead over a hundred grand. People are going to do whatever gives the most AD for their zen, they would be stupid not to. So if the ZAX is not working as it should, it's maybe because people are still buying zen, but they're using it to buy coal wards instead as it gives a better amount of AD.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 375 Arc User
    @rockster#6227 the thread, was in part a joke started by @blargskull who "challenged someone to track the zen AD exchange rate. I am his neighbor and also work from home, so I took up his task and made some spread sheets to track the flow of posting date to receipt. The spreadsheet may need to be adjusted but seems accurate enough. I think most people are aware of the cycle; convert AD to Zen, buy items in the store, sell on the market for AD and repeat. That is the whole problem there is a backlog, no one wants to give away Zen for AD. I believe the few that drop Zen into the exchange either don't care or they don't know they could make more selling such items. But the thread is an attempt to allow users to know some estimate on when they should see Zen in the future. It is not a perfect forecast but very close to accurate within plus or minus a few days.

    @odanobunaga#4974 I believe you mean you posted late December and not late January, early January hasn't arrived yet. Unless something drastically alters the forecast, players posting today will not see Zen until mid January of 2022.
  • rockster#6227 rockster Member Posts: 821 Arc User
    @hotfrostworm my experience with the ZAX was that for a long long time I didn't know it was even there, like for years. When I did find out what it was I looked at it and it seemed scary and strange so I still didn't really find out much about it let alone use it. I often bought zen back then but I used to buy coal wards and sell them to get AD because they sold fast. One day I got off my backside and looked at the ZAX properly and tried it out and I found I was actually getting less for coal wards at around 500kAD each at the time than I would have if I'd done the ZAX lol. So I started using the ZAX when I bought zen because it made me more AD. Now it seems back to front when the ZAX rate is the same but coal wards are now selling for around 900k. I really like the idea of monitoring it in this thread though, it provides people with some really useful insights. Word on the street is that the wait currently is generally around 6 months, don't know if that's correct or not. You would generally use the ZAX to support the community and keep the wheels turning and help-out players who can't afford real cash, but atm it will cost you a couple of hundred thousand AD to do it, so the saying "no good deed goes unpunished" definitely applies in this case.
  • kemnimtarkaskemnimtarkas Member Posts: 825 Arc User

    I placed 3,750,000 ADs in late January into the exchange and several days ago, I received my Zen.

    Uh, what?

    I have 2 orders of that size dtd 1/12/21 and as of today, 5/24/21 they are still not filled. If your dates are accurate then somebody has some splainin' to do.
  • kharkov58kharkov58 Member Posts: 622 Arc User
    Possibly he is not on PC platform?
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 476 Arc User

    I placed 3,750,000 ADs in late January into the exchange and several days ago, I received my Zen.

    Uh, what?

    I have 2 orders of that size dtd 1/12/21 and as of today, 5/24/21 they are still not filled. If your dates are accurate then somebody has some splainin' to do.
    @hotfrostworm told me the other day, that he will only "bump" the forecast spreadsheet, if he observes more than a few days difference. This is the only user stating this extreme range, I assume @kharkov58 is correct suspecting the user is on XB1 or PS4. Unfortunately you won't be seeing your Zen for at least another month.

    I admit I was goofing around when I started this thread, maybe the joke is on me? :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,071 Arc User
    edited May 2021
    odanobunaga made 3 bug reports in PC forum. It appears they are PC specific. He made no posting in XBox or PS4 forum. Hence, the chance is he forgot when exactly he made Zen posting.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • utookmynickutookmynick Member Posts: 200 Arc User

    odanobunaga made 3 bug reports in PC forum. It appears they are PC specific. He made no posting in XBox or PS4 forum. Hence, the chance is he forgot when exactly he made Zen posting.

    He could have miscounted. If he had 5 orders in the queue, he could have counted back 4 in his log by mistake.

  • adinosiiadinosii Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,294 Arc User
    edited May 2021
    Yea, no way this is accurate. I did post the details for my last trade that went through...I have 5x 5000 Zen trades in the queue and one of them should have been filled already if this was accurate.
    Post edited by adinosii on
    Hoping for improvements...
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 375 Arc User
    Let's all pass the word in the PC game this weekend to post ZAX information here. Afterwards I will see if the spreadsheet needs a jump or a bump.
  • samboeza#9127 samboeza Member Posts: 2 Arc User
    posted on 21.01.2021 and still nothing unfortunately :(
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 375 Arc User

    posted on 21.01.2021 and still nothing unfortunately :(

    If you look over in column D on my spreadsheet you will see, I don't anticipate that to arrive until July 4th. If you need the link to my spreadsheet, it is linked above in 3rd message from the top of this page. Keep us posted when it arrives. :+1:
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,298 Arc User
    edited June 2021
    Posted January 9th, received today June 6th.

    So around 147 days.

    I think we were close to 70M queue at that time, so 0.48M/day processing rate.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 375 Arc User

    Posted January 9th, received today June 6th.

    So around 147 days.

    I think we were close to 70M queue at that time, so 0.48M/day processing rate.

    I am tweaking the spread sheet now. This is a reduction of more than a week from what I was forecasting. If that trend continues the backlog will start to decrease.
  • handofhensonhandofhenson Member Posts: 5 Arc User
    I forgot to post this a while back, requested 29 Dec 20, received 25 May 21.

    Some random data, zen requested on a day

    67,077,634 24Feb21
    67,313,570 26Feb21
    68,985,189 09Mar21
    69,176,442 14Mar21
    69,100,749 19Mar21
    69,604,000 29Mar21

    I'm fairly sure immediately before the bonding bounty it was 49mill, i didn't write it down though. Memory may be faulty there.
  • kemnimtarkaskemnimtarkas Member Posts: 825 Arc User
    edited June 2021
    2 orders for 5,000 Zen placed on 1/12/21 were filled today - 6/11/21.

    The spreadsheet predicted 6/10, so just about spot on. Way better than my local weather people at predicting storms.
  • kharkov58kharkov58 Member Posts: 622 Arc User
    My order for 5k zen placed on 1/12/21 was filled today also. Almost a full 5 months.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,071 Arc User
    My Jan 11 listing was fulfilled on June 9.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • theelusiveone#4954 theelusiveone Member Posts: 112 Arc User
    Listing of 2000 posted Jan 13th came through today June 12th.
    Kevfire
    Guild Leader
    Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 375 Arc User
    @plasticbat and

    Listing of 2000 posted Jan 13th came through today June 12th.

    Those are on the spot for the spread sheet forecast. Thank you!
  • adinosiiadinosii Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,294 Arc User
    Jan 14th filled on June 13th - no big surprise there. My next Zen orders were placed on Jan 30th, but that's just when there was a huge spike, right ?
    Hoping for improvements...
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 375 Arc User
    @adinosii estimating July 9th for your next order, unless the 4th of July event changes it one direction or the other. I am still curious to some degree, if they plan to take any action in the next module. I don't see anything they can do about this, it would send repercussions to the other 2 functional exchanges.

    For example, removal of the backlog was attempted before, it just fills up again. Raising the cap was tried in the past, and it made it worse than before. If they wait until the release of Magic the Gathering, combine all 4 games markets, that would create an issue, flooding the 70 million backlog across all four games. I am assuming Magic the Gathering has a Zen exchange? If not, maybe they plan to simply pull all the exchanges out. Afterwards state, Zen is a cash only currency, install a patriot currency for daily login and hours played. I expect there is nothing they can do, therefor they will do nothing.

    Meanwhile, I am watching this thread for the minor changes, plus or minus 5 days. Mr. Blargskull is still in Texas, on business. His 10 Zen he posting at the start of this thread, won't arrive until late July.
  • alistairetheblu#7442 alistairetheblu Member Posts: 25 Arc User
    1544 zen, posted Jan 15, received this morning, June 15. Got a bunch more up January 21st, iirc that was from the bonding runestones, so we're about at the part where it's going to really slow down.
  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,971 Arc User
    Well, they're doing something... selling C. Wards for AD through the Wondrous Bazaar at the moment, but since you can only buy 1 per account, that's not going to have a noticeable impact on the ZAX.
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • kemnimtarkaskemnimtarkas Member Posts: 825 Arc User
    Has anyone ever run a post tracking the opposite side of this economy?

    I really appreciate the point of this thread, providing actual live market guidance on expectations for the ZAX. But it assumes there's a consistent market on the other side of the equation selling Zen, and I have not seen many, if any folks posting about that activity. And yet, Zen orders get filled, regularly, as this extensive thread has proven.

    I'm just really curious about what the likelihood is that Cryptic has their thumb on the scale to some degree, propping up or controlling the market by how much they are willing to directly convert from AD to Zen daily?

  • horizonxaelhorizonxael Member Posts: 111 Arc User

    Has anyone ever run a post tracking the opposite side of this economy?

    I really appreciate the point of this thread, providing actual live market guidance on expectations for the ZAX. But it assumes there's a consistent market on the other side of the equation selling Zen, and I have not seen many, if any folks posting about that activity. And yet, Zen orders get filled, regularly, as this extensive thread has proven.

    I'm just really curious about what the likelihood is that Cryptic has their thumb on the scale to some degree, propping up or controlling the market by how much they are willing to directly convert from AD to Zen daily?

    for me it would be easy to reduce the disadvantage would be enough to put a bonus every now and then example
    those who convert 5,000 zen receive 10% more ad or those who convert 10,000 receive 15% more ad and those who convert 24,000 receive 25% more ad, so that people would have one more reason to earn zen in ad and the disadvantage would be reduced but cryptic seems to be making money in this situation and does nothing.
  • kharkov58kharkov58 Member Posts: 622 Arc User
    Adding bonus AD to zen sales would just contribute to the AD inflation already in the game. Cryptic claims to be trying to reduce the amount of AD in the game. (Not that their policies back up that claim)
  • adinosiiadinosii Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,294 Arc User
    They could do a lot of things. One approach would be to have two versions of Zen, call it "Gold Zen" that you get for money and "Silver Zen" that you get for exchanging AD....with the difference being that anything you buy for "Gold Zen" is unbound, while stuff bought with "Silver Zen" is BtA.

    Not perfect, but it would break the Zen-> buy stuff->Sell on AH->convert to Zen cycle.
    Hoping for improvements...
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