The backlog has dropped since it almost hit 71 mil 3-4 days ago. Closer to 69 mil now. Not a huge swing, but also factor in that the bonding cashin should be a 1 time post for many players. Meaning, many players got a influx of AD form the bonding and made ZAX listings. Many of which, never had that much AD on hand, or ever posted a listing. Once their ZAX flips from Jan, many of them will not have AD to post again. Yes, the whales will have 5 listings to post again the moment their ZAX flips, but the people that used bonding AD to put ZAX listing, should go down. Curious to see if goes closer to 6 months+, or closer to 5 months again by end of July.
It is not about the now as much as it seems to be about the then. The key is a lot of guessing at how much AD was put into the ZAX on a given date in the past. Some say the Zen backlog went up 8 million in one day on January 21st. Mr. Black (aka hotfrostworm) did some data samples in this thread and he has successfully projected for the last few month that the wait time for the zen was increasing by 0.6 days per day.
@regenerde I agree those loot boxes would pull some AD out and if they sold classic epic companions and legendary mounts for less than AH is offering. Bat Swarm was popular, flying carpet, hellfire engine, and whatnot.
I assume many January 21st orders will consume the weeks ahead. According to the posting on the prior page, @alistairetheblu#7442 stated, that is when the backlog swelled by 8 million. Since roughly 400,000 zen seems to be processed daily, it could be 20 days chewing through that fat. Even more, should sellers slow down on contributing their zen.
With the current freeze The Palosi-Gildriador Scale ™ is showing the one day will end somewhere in August, I think this means buyers are no longer chucking in 400,000 per day. That is showing it "chewing" for 40 days and not 20. I guess charity starts at home, I wish Charity lived with me.
Now this is freaky, it seems the bump is gone because: 51 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 51 07:12:05 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750 51 07:12:07 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750 UTC+2
Happy to prove you wrong It would interesting to see the other times/requests from 21st 22nd and how/if the next days level out to pre-bump or if it will simply carry on.
I think the the big burp is not done yet, I will update the sheet in just a minute. We are glad you got paid.
Edit: For now I placed the blue frozen on June 27th to July 12th and now the 13th shows we have moved on to January 22nd and a 172 day backlog. I will need some zen data from users who have postings for both January 22 to January 23rd. Ask around if you have the time. We could spend a week or more on the 22nd. If this is the case, the new green area will turn blue, and be manually updated when I have the data.
@plasticbat I missed the part about UTC+2 emix is somewhere between Finland to South Africa. So let me get my slide ruler out here... blow the dust off this thing. Here are the conversions; EST is -5, Central is -6, Mountain -7, and PT -8. I am going to convert the time to PT knowing the server is located in Los Gatos, California, US. Because UTC+2 doesn't follow DLS time, they are six hours ahead of Detroit and 9 hours ahead of Los Angeles.
Subtract 9 hours from what he stated above:
Emix posted their offer at 3:04:18 PM Jan 21 2021 (Pacific Time) to buy 5000 for 750
Emix received 294 Zen at 10:12:05 PM Jul 12 2021 Emix received 4,706 Zen at 10:12:07 PM Jul 12 2021
However now with MST Mountain is only +1 hour.
2:49:14 PM PT on January 21 Mystar received Zen on the 12th and did post on the 21st of January by those times. 4:33:17 PM PT on July 12 got 2657 4:52:49 PM PT on July 12 got 2343
What this means is we are still frozen on the 21st. Mystar posted 15 minutes before Emix and Emix got their zen about five hours later than Mystar. If we can go by this new ratio of +5 hours for every 15 minutes, plasticbat posted at 9:45pm EST / 6:45 PM PT, 3 hours and 40 minutes after Emix. I would forecast +75 hours from Emix's collection, July 15th at 1 AM, let's see how close we get.
Meanwhile this new formula, would set the end of January 21st PT to July 16th at 7AM or there about.
You are correct about the UTC part, and I messed up about the am/pm part. I work in avation, and that's why we use UTC and 24h... So, I went over my log again and did some conversions:
CET/UTC+1 (at placing) CEST/UTC+2 (at receiving) 50 10:58:10 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 50 09:12:09 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750 50 09:13:48 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750 51 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 51 07:12:05 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750 51 07:12:07 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750
Converted into 24h: 50 22:58:10 Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 50 21:12:09 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750 50 21:13:48 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750 51 00:04:18 Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 51 07:12:05 Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750 51 07:12:07 Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750
Into PT: 50 13:58:10 Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 51 15:04:18 Jan 21 2021! Offered to buy 5000 for 750 = 50 01:58:10 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 51 03:04:18 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750 So the placing is a bit over 1 hour apart (not 1 day as I had initially thought)
50 12:12:09 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750 50 12:13:48 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750 51 22:12:05 Jul 12 2021 Purchased 294 for 750 51 22:12:07 Jul 12 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750 and the return is 34 hours apart! Or 1h06m (66m) vs 34h (2040m), roughly a 1:31 ratio.
Edit: Miscalculated the ratio. Add: plasticbat's order posted 3h40m (220m) would probably arrive 6820m (113h40m) or 4d17h40m later. So my guess is: 15:47 Jul 17 (or 03:47 PM )
Actually I am happy to see it still moves at all. There maybe a surge of zen coming with the new module release. This is based on few factors: the amount of advertisement people will see for module 21, the amount of fresh green buyers that dump all their zen on AD, and the desire to purchase zen after playing the new game for a few hours.
This is a whole new game after module 21. I plan to stick around and make a bard. I am already working on what his character flaws will be.
This is a whole new game after module 21. I plan to stick around and make a bard. I am already working on what his character flaws will be.
Indeed, I've fiddled around with the bard on preview (pun intended) and it is a move in an interesting direction. How many will like it? We shall see, I for my part look forward to finally complete my storage alts based on OOTS chars with Nale the Bard!
This is a whole new game after module 21. I plan to stick around and make a bard. I am already working on what his character flaws will be.
Indeed, I've fiddled around with the bard on preview (pun intended) and it is a move in an interesting direction. How many will like it? We shall see, I for my part look forward to finally complete my storage alts based on OOTS chars with Nale the Bard!
I was pretty disappointed when Bard was announced as the new class; it certainly wasn't what I had wanted...that said, now that I've had a chance to play it on preview, I can say I was wrong and that it is a blast to play. I really like the changes that are being made to the game, and I think it is now going in the right direction despite what all the naysayers might be saying.
@rubytrue these changes are for year 1 of the game, this is year 8. I don't expect after the changes I will be seeing anyone on my friends list showing up. What!? I have friends.
@blargskull I don't think we can, what we can do however is offer to build you a new track. You do have to pay in advance though, we'll have the track built some time between early 2022 and never.
My Jan 21, 9:43pm EDT finally arrived at 11:40am EDT today (July 16).
Thanks, I just bumped up the spreadsheet to match current. Roughly 5 hours remains for Pacific Time frame. Looks like the 21st could be here for another day? I never thought the calculation would dwindle to counting hours instead of days. January 21st took 20 to 21 days to chew through the AD, it is a date that will live in infamy of this game. Now the question that remains, how long will it take to get through the 22nd?
An interesting side note, Mr. Blagskull and I had an extensive conversation about time on the planet Earth. I don't want to stir up the controversy again. Just to be clear, let's go by Pacific Time for these as long as the Zen trickles along. I do live in EST zone and I just think it would be more appropriate to use the time zone for the server and not UTC, GMT, or worry about the poor Hawaiians playing out in the Pacific Ocean. GMT/UTC 12:01 am on a Saturday is 5:01 pm on a Friday in sunny California. There are online web pages to convert the time. I plan to just continue day to day.
An interesting side note, Mr. Blagskull and I had an extensive conversation about time on the planet Earth. I don't want to stir up the controversy again. Just to be clear, let's go by Pacific Time for these as long as the Zen trickles along. I do live in EST zone and I just think it would be more appropriate to use the time zone for the server and not UTC, GMT, or worry about the poor Hawaiians playing out in the Pacific Ocean. GMT/UTC 12:01 am on a Saturday is 5:01 pm on a Friday in sunny California. There are online web pages to convert the time. I plan to just continue day to day.
The problem is of course made worse by that the game is converting everything to your local time, so we really have no common time reference. Or actually - we do. Quest reset time is 10 am UTC I think?
Internally computers are all operating by UTC - since all timezones are specified as UTC+n the easiest thing to use as a common time reference would be UTC. It would also make it easier to handle daylight savings time(that happily will go away in EU - next year I think?)
UTC is the astronomical time set at Greenwich in England, just outside London. There is a museum there I really recommend visiting. The original telescopes used to do astronomical measurements and to define the Earth coordinate system are still on display.
Did you know UK got a different coordinate system than the rest of the Earth? The reason is they are referenced to two different telescopes that are placed a few meters apart
An interesting side note, Mr. Blagskull and I had an extensive conversation about time on the planet Earth. I don't want to stir up the controversy again. Just to be clear, let's go by Pacific Time for these as long as the Zen trickles along. I do live in EST zone and I just think it would be more appropriate to use the time zone for the server and not UTC, GMT, or worry about the poor Hawaiians playing out in the Pacific Ocean. GMT/UTC 12:01 am on a Saturday is 5:01 pm on a Friday in sunny California. There are online web pages to convert the time. I plan to just continue day to day.
The problem is of course made worse by that the game is converting everything to your local time, so we really have no common time reference.
Internally computers are all operating by UTC - since all timezones are specified as UTC+n the easiest thing to use as a common time reference would be UTC. It would also make it easier to handle daylight savings time(that happily will go away in EU - next year I think?)
UTC is the astronomical time set at Greenwich in England, just outside London. There is a museum there I really recommend visiting. The original telescopes used to do astronomical measurements and to define the Earth coordinate system are still on display.
Did you know UK got a different coordinate system than the rest of the Earth? The reason is they are referenced to two different telescopes that are placed a few meters apart
I was simply explaining, to Mr. Black over coffee the other day, we should consider the international dateline and how there are two days in the world. The best way to calculate the time would be to use the international date line where time begins and ends for each day. But he feels we should use the local time of Cryptic HQ. I also mentioned the corruption of DLST (day light savings time) is not present in all zones and should be eradicated from system. I live in EST and I don't follow DLST, all the other cavemen can call it 2:30 AM right now but I set my clocks to REAL time 1:30 AM. This false sense of "saving" just throws us out of balance. It was meant to reduced energy cost in the summer, but I run LED bulbs 24/7 in my place and most 24 hour stores use lights all the time. I have never walked into a store in daylight hours and the overhead lights are off.
UTC or GMT is in the middle and it really doesn't work in my opinion. The time zones run +14 hours to the east and - 11 to the west. That divides the planet into 26 time zones for a 24 hour day. Everyone set your clocks to Funafuti time!
UTC or GMT is in the middle and it really doesn't work in my opinion. The time zones run +14 hours to the east and - 11 to the west. That divides the planet into 26 time zones for a 24 hour day. Everyone set your clocks to Funafuti time!
Thank you.
As I mentioned before, I have a background in aviation, and we use UTC exactly because other time zones create a hamster-load of trouble. And since the 'middle' was drawn in Greenwich/England (who do not realy have different coordinate system than the rest of the world, because there are many different systems in use worldwide, WGS-84 being the most common for the whole world) but back to timezones, the islands in the pacific ended up being on the 'backside' of the zero-line and were not very happy that a few meters/feet down the lane another day should be. So they decided to ignore western bordermaking and lived happily ever after, seizing the opportunity to be the first in the year 2000 along the way.
And to put the train of thought back on track: as long as transaction times are clearly flagged with a time-zone (the server is till Nov 7th UTC-7, for reference), all is well.
You think players leaving to go play new world will lower the backlog?
0
kreatyveMember, Neverwinter Moderator, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 10,545Community Moderator
I put in an order at 11:53:14 PM on January 23rd, 2021. It's not filled yet. I expected it to be filled 2 days ago according to this. I'll check it again tomorrow after the servers come back up.
My opinions are my own. I do not work for PWE or Cryptic. - Forum Rules - Protector's Enclave Discord - I play on Xbox Any of my comments not posted in orange are based on my own personal opinion and not official. Any messages written in orange are official moderation messages. Signature images are now fixed!
You think players leaving to go play new world will lower the backlog?
Well, i don't think so, i mean players can still leave their listing in there, and just play New World for a few months, then return at some point and simply collect their ZEN.
You also have to keep in mind that not just "F2P" players are going to try other games, but also players that have spend money on ZEN and send some of it into the ZAX in the past.
Anyway, New Worlds isn't bad, but we have to wait and see how they're going to monetize it in the end...
You think players leaving to go play new world will lower the backlog?
Well, i don't think so, i mean players can still leave their listing in there, and just play New World for a few months, then return at some point and simply collect their ZEN.
You also have to keep in mind that not just "F2P" players are going to try other games, but also players that have spend money on ZEN and send some of it into the ZAX in the past.
Anyway, New Worlds isn't bad, but we have to wait and see how they're going to monetize it in the end...
Thank you for plugging New World, Amazon is one of my clients. No, it would have the direct opposite influence. There would be nobody here to buy the Zen to put into the backlog. On the other hand, there would also be no one around to post more AD, there would be a dry spell about a year from now.
Last night I saw Mr. Benyr's posting and updated the spread sheet to match. This frozen area has spread out 20 days over the January 21st posting alone, hopefully we will see less time over the January 22nd. Thinking back to Mr. Blargskull's comical graph in this forum thread, this is indeed a wall, it may take the remainder of this year to overcome.
Comments
@regenerde I agree those loot boxes would pull some AD out and if they sold classic epic companions and legendary mounts for less than AH is offering. Bat Swarm was popular, flying carpet, hellfire engine, and whatnot. With the current freeze The Palosi-Gildriador Scale ™ is showing the one day will end somewhere in August, I think this means buyers are no longer chucking in 400,000 per day. That is showing it "chewing" for 40 days and not 20. I guess charity starts at home, I wish Charity lived with me.
Just killing time...
It would interesting to see the other times/requests from 21st 22nd and how/if the next days level out to pre-bump or if it will simply carry on.
Edit: For now I placed the blue frozen on June 27th to July 12th and now the 13th shows we have moved on to January 22nd and a 172 day backlog. I will need some zen data from users who have postings for both January 22 to January 23rd. Ask around if you have the time. We could spend a week or more on the 22nd. If this is the case, the new green area will turn blue, and be manually updated when I have the data.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
fulfilled on July 12
3:49:14 PM MST on January 21
5:33:17 PM MST on July 12 got 2657
5:52:49 PM MST on July 12 got 2343
Here are the conversions; EST is -5, Central is -6, Mountain -7, and PT -8. I am going to convert the time to PT knowing the server is located in Los Gatos, California, US. Because UTC+2 doesn't follow DLS time, they are six hours ahead of Detroit and 9 hours ahead of Los Angeles.
Subtract 9 hours from what he stated above:
Emix posted their offer at 3:04:18 PM Jan 21 2021 (Pacific Time) to buy 5000 for 750
Emix received 294 Zen at 10:12:05 PM Jul 12 2021
Emix received 4,706 Zen at 10:12:07 PM Jul 12 2021
However now with MST Mountain is only +1 hour.
2:49:14 PM PT on January 21
Mystar received Zen on the 12th and did post on the 21st of January by those times.
4:33:17 PM PT on July 12 got 2657
4:52:49 PM PT on July 12 got 2343
What this means is we are still frozen on the 21st. Mystar posted 15 minutes before Emix and Emix got their zen about five hours later than Mystar. If we can go by this new ratio of +5 hours for every 15 minutes, plasticbat posted at 9:45pm EST / 6:45 PM PT, 3 hours and 40 minutes after Emix. I would forecast +75 hours from Emix's collection, July 15th at 1 AM, let's see how close we get.
Meanwhile this new formula, would set the end of January 21st PT to July 16th at 7AM or there about.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
So, I went over my log again and did some conversions:
CET/UTC+1 (at placing) CEST/UTC+2 (at receiving)
50 10:58:10 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
50 09:12:09 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750
50 09:13:48 PM Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750
51 12:04:18 AM Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
51 07:12:05 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750
51 07:12:07 AM Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750
Converted into 24h:
50 22:58:10 Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
50 21:12:09 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750
50 21:13:48 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750
51 00:04:18 Jan 22 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
51 07:12:05 Jul 13 2021 Purchased 294 for 750
51 07:12:07 Jul 13 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750
Into PT:
50 13:58:10 Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
51 15:04:18 Jan 21 2021! Offered to buy 5000 for 750
=
50 01:58:10 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
51 03:04:18 PM Jan 21 2021 Offered to buy 5000 for 750
So the placing is a bit over 1 hour apart (not 1 day as I had initially thought)
50 12:12:09 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2545 for 750
50 12:13:48 Jul 11 2021 Purchased 2455 for 750
51 22:12:05 Jul 12 2021 Purchased 294 for 750
51 22:12:07 Jul 12 2021 Purchased 4706 for 750
and the return is 34 hours apart!
Or 1h06m (66m) vs 34h (2040m), roughly a 1:31 ratio.
Edit: Miscalculated the ratio.
Add: plasticbat's order posted 3h40m (220m) would probably arrive 6820m (113h40m) or 4d17h40m later.
So my guess is: 15:47 Jul 17 (or 03:47 PM
Actually I am happy to see it still moves at all. There maybe a surge of zen coming with the new module release. This is based on few factors: the amount of advertisement people will see for module 21, the amount of fresh green buyers that dump all their zen on AD, and the desire to purchase zen after playing the new game for a few hours.
This is a whole new game after module 21. I plan to stick around and make a bard. I am already working on what his character flaws will be.
Just killing time...
@rubytrue these changes are for year 1 of the game, this is year 8. I don't expect after the changes I will be seeing anyone on my friends list showing up. What!? I have friends.
Can someone help me back on track?
Just killing time...
An interesting side note, Mr. Blagskull and I had an extensive conversation about time on the planet Earth. I don't want to stir up the controversy again. Just to be clear, let's go by Pacific Time for these as long as the Zen trickles along. I do live in EST zone and I just think it would be more appropriate to use the time zone for the server and not UTC, GMT, or worry about the poor Hawaiians playing out in the Pacific Ocean. GMT/UTC 12:01 am on a Saturday is 5:01 pm on a Friday in sunny California. There are online web pages to convert the time. I plan to just continue day to day.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Internally computers are all operating by UTC - since all timezones are specified as UTC+n the easiest thing to use as a common time reference would be UTC. It would also make it easier to handle daylight savings time(that happily will go away in EU - next year I think?)
UTC is the astronomical time set at Greenwich in England, just outside London. There is a museum there I really recommend visiting. The original telescopes used to do astronomical measurements and to define the Earth coordinate system are still on display.
Did you know UK got a different coordinate system than the rest of the Earth? The reason is they are referenced to two different telescopes that are placed a few meters apart
UTC or GMT is in the middle and it really doesn't work in my opinion. The time zones run +14 hours to the east and - 11 to the west. That divides the planet into 26 time zones for a 24 hour day. Everyone set your clocks to Funafuti time!
Thank you.
Just killing time...
And to put the train of thought back on track: as long as transaction times are clearly flagged with a time-zone (the server is till Nov 7th UTC-7, for reference), all is well.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I also noticed queue length has fallen from 70M to 67M - it is possible that a few of those bonding rush orders don't get replaced on the ZAX.
Any of my comments not posted in orange are based on my own personal opinion and not official.
Any messages written in orange are official moderation messages. Signature images are now fixed!
You also have to keep in mind that not just "F2P" players are going to try other games, but also players that have spend money on ZEN and send some of it into the ZAX in the past.
Anyway, New Worlds isn't bad, but we have to wait and see how they're going to monetize it in the end...
No, it would have the direct opposite influence. There would be nobody here to buy the Zen to put into the backlog. On the other hand, there would also be no one around to post more AD, there would be a dry spell about a year from now.
Last night I saw Mr. Benyr's posting and updated the spread sheet to match. This frozen area has spread out 20 days over the January 21st posting alone, hopefully we will see less time over the January 22nd. Thinking back to Mr. Blargskull's comical graph in this forum thread, this is indeed a wall, it may take the remainder of this year to overcome.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Have fun counting, I plan to be online tomorrow night for the release of mod 21, unless they plan to delay it.
Just killing time...