True, events that require AD is just as likely to cause the wait time to increase. With so many human variables at work, you also need something people want to buy in the Zen store that leaves them with extra Zen left over to trade. The next "big" decrease or stall in wait time won't occur until this fall. Right now many players are off enjoying summer activities, I try to get away from the PC myself. This is my workstation and playing games doesn't feel all that much like a break to me. I don't believe, the promise of Covid-19 going away will repair the economic infrastructure of our planet. There is the global economy to consider. Another huge unknown variable in this equation is module 21 and the announcement of the new class.
Over the history of the game, server population has swelled for one month during the new release. According to the stats available to me, the best module (voted by server population) was module 14 Ravenloft. The PC population went up over +34%, I can only assume this was also the case for the consoles. This means out of 1000 players, 340 either returned to the game or were new. I have no data on what the active player-base was back in 2018. However if you assume 5,000 per platform with 3 platforms is 15,000 + 34% = 20,100.
One always assumes that module 6 Elemental Evil was the worst, since it seems to be brought up by the chat here often. While it was 50% less popular than module 5 Rise of Tiamat, it did increase the server population by +12%. This most recent module seems to be doing the direct opposite. Module 20 part 1 saw barely +2% increase and only slightly better than Avernus. Part 2 released and the server population for PC took a radical nosedive -7% making it currently at the bottom. Even adding parts 1 and 2 comes out to a loss of -5%.
With the population so low and few new players your wait time will increase. Assuming they hit bottom there is nowhere to go except up. If Part 3 is attractive to the players they could use an increase of more than 6% to lift this off the very bottom of modules to attract players to the game. The release of module 21 this fall, if they can pull off another Ravenloft or Rise of Tiamat, then you may see a decrease in wait time for the exchange.
So to make sure I understand this correctly. the backlog is primarily due to the need for people to spend their zen to get AD. We have a huge influx of people wanting zen for their AD, but not enough gong the other way.
If this is the case, There is another group you are missing. Those that do spend money say for VIP monthly. I usually get a $25-50 PS card every month or so to pay for VIP. Obviously, I do not spend it all at once on my VIP, but I have not found but a few things to buy from the Zen store. I do see thing I would like at the AH but realistically I am not going to spend 8mill AD for acquire a Xuna or other Legendary/Mythic Mounts. They are not available in the zen store, so I am left holding my leftover zen until the following month. Even if I had the cash for enough zen to sell for AD for Xuna. I just do not see that much value....so I hoard my zen..at least until something worthwhile comes along at a good price,
@autumnwitch so the waiting is only 60 days on PS4, that is what it was back in September of last year then it took a giant leap when they exchanged all those bondings for AD here. Did they do that for the players on PS4?
Think the delay has taken a jump again on pc, posted an exchange on the 12/12/20, calcs put that to a completion on the 1st may, still not came through
Yes they did the bonding stone exchange on ps4...that's why there are so many Xuna running around LOL While the PS backlog perhaps is not as much as PC its still pretty lengthy.
Anyhow siting on 3k zen to pay for 1-3 months of WIP or to convert. that's where I'm at....probably get another 2-3k zen late may early June.
Right now with inflated AD prices, I see no reason to convert as what I would buy is as they say out of my price range (or at least what I am willing to pay.
I am considering getting some more bags via zen yo carry more stuff that I will just end up converting to RP as its seems not many seem to purchase via AH
Think the delay has taken a jump again on pc, posted an exchange on the 12/12/20, calcs put that to a completion on the 1st may, still not came through
Yes, it is pretty hard to pin it down to a constant. @tchefi#6735 is working on 0.612 as a daily factor, which is probably closer. I just added 0.6 on my sheet, had I done that it would likely float the other direction. I would recommend making your own sheet and adjusting it according to the most recent dates posted here in this thread.
Think the delay has taken a jump again on pc, posted an exchange on the 12/12/20, calcs put that to a completion on the 1st may, still not came through
Yes, it is pretty hard to pin it down to a constant. @tchefi#6735 is working on 0.612 as a daily factor, which is probably closer. I just added 0.6 on my sheet, had I done that it would likely float the other direction. I would recommend making your own sheet and adjusting it according to the most recent dates posted here in this thread.
december 9th 2020 Zen demand of a friend was fulfilled on may 2nd 2021. 3 days later than my calculation with 0.612 rate.
As a consquence, waiting time increasing rate has changed to 0.646 in my tool.
This brutal change is probably linked to the "Epic games release" effect (= wagon of new players) fading out, which was I think slowing down the increasing trend during November.
I'm waiting for the winter sale/fest event/holidays effect as a probable new shift in the trend.
Think the delay has taken a jump again on pc, posted an exchange on the 12/12/20, calcs put that to a completion on the 1st may, still not came through
Yes, it is pretty hard to pin it down to a constant. @tchefi#6735 is working on 0.612 as a daily factor, which is probably closer. I just added 0.6 on my sheet, had I done that it would likely float the other direction. I would recommend making your own sheet and adjusting it according to the most recent dates posted here in this thread.
december 9th 2020 Zen demand of a friend was fulfilled on may 2nd 2021. 3 days later than my calculation with 0.612 rate.
As a consquence, waiting time increasing rate has changed to 0.646 in my tool.
This brutal change is probably linked to the "Epic games release" effect (= wagon of new players) fading out, which was I think slowing down the increasing trend during November.
I'm waiting for the winter sale/fest event/holidays effect as a probable new shift in the trend.
That's weird, my listing from 9th Dec 2020 came through 4 days earlier on 29th Apr 2021. That's 4 days between listings posted on the same date. Does not bode well.
That's weird, my listing from 9th Dec 2020 came through 4 days earlier on 29th Apr 2021. That's 4 days between listings posted on the same date. Does not bode well.
mhhh, i will check tonight with my friend if he gave me the right date (I didn't control if it was the day he "noticed" the zen were arrived, or if it was the real one written in his history of exchanges).
Module 20 part 1 saw barely +2% increase and only slightly better than Avernus. Part 2 released and the server population for PC took a radical nosedive -7% making it currently at the bottom. Even adding parts 1 and 2 comes out to a loss of -5%.
You probably should not blame that fall exclusively on mod 20, I think the Combat Rework has a big part of the responsibility for the ongoing decline.
Module 20 part 1 saw barely +2% increase and only slightly better than Avernus. Part 2 released and the server population for PC took a radical nosedive -7% making it currently at the bottom. Even adding parts 1 and 2 comes out to a loss of -5%.
You probably should not blame that fall exclusively on mod 20, I think the Combat Rework has a big part of the responsibility for the ongoing decline.
come on the rework isnt that bad us the haters say....just few tweeks and u back on track lol...
Module 20 part 1 saw barely +2% increase and only slightly better than Avernus. Part 2 released and the server population for PC took a radical nosedive -7% making it currently at the bottom. Even adding parts 1 and 2 comes out to a loss of -5%.
You probably should not blame that fall exclusively on mod 20, I think the Combat Rework has a big part of the responsibility for the ongoing decline.
come on the rework isnt that bad us the haters say....just few tweeks and u back on track lol...
I am not hating on the rework or any module, it is a combination of "all the above". A simple case of too much change all at once. People are people, and the majority of people just hate change. To give you a personal example; as a teen I watched Tom Baker as "Dr. Who" when his contract ended they replaced him with Peter Davison. I hated the change and I stopped watching. Was Peter a good actor? Of course and he did a fair job playing the Doctor, but I liked Tom Baker in the role best of all. The change was what I disliked. Many people are uncomfortable and frightened when you make changes. It is just a matter of knowing the secret of television. At the end of the episode, everything is back to normal. Nothing has changed.
My wife has been poking at me, so I am altering the spread sheet forecasting at this point. Changing December 16th to 145 days. It has been placed in bold and highlighted in green on the sheet. The deviation from December 1st to the 16th has been 0.0875 (an additional 2.1 hours per day). The same +0.6 increment per day will continue onward and we can use this to track an exponential increase.
Thank you for your data points and assistance in this study.
P.S. @blargskull - If you posted any AD today, you can expect your Zen after Christmas.
Not expecting that for 6+ months but that's ok cause Im not really playing NWO anymore anyway
My wife is online now, and she doesn't "play" this like she did before. Her plan is mostly to collect game prizes on weekends for her Halloween party. The Halloween party will be the deciding factor for her. By that time they should have module 21 released or on preview at the very least. I don't play, so I never fully understand the need to be online each and every day or what makes one want to play. I felt the game was just way too simple to kill things. Since the rework it seems more challenging, but I assume the players are speaking up by not being physically present.
I normally look at this in an audio and visual experience, from my testing it in the OS environments. This Zax test is just more testing for me. I try to separate any bias I may have from the game to test. However most online games, with micro-transactions, are normally easy to play and reward the player with virtually nothing. A good example of this, I was testing "Counter-Strike: Global Offensive" and they shell out big bucks for cosmetic skins for guns. There was no improvement made to the guns other than a visual. Highly competitive, simple game play, easy to "win", and virtual rewards are nil. I would attach more information, but anyone interested in seeing the ludicrous pricing can web search "cs:go weapon skins".
All that aside, on to this ZAX backlog, I added a second sheet tab at the bottom left for May to September. As I stated above, unless something happens to change the trend, any AD posted after May 9th will not return Zen until after Christmas of this year. By September 30th the expected return date will be August 11th, 2022. I know some players expect some kind of bailout by Cryptic Studios, I don't see how that can happen. I will update the sheet when there is another push.
Thanks @rubytrue and daughter, I appreciate a family that plays together stays together. However I do question your parental judgement, subjecting your daughter to the toxic atmosphere of game chat. I wonder, if it could even fall under child endangerment laws of your region?
Just killing time...
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,463Arc User
Thanks @rubytrue and daughter, I appreciate a family that plays together stays together. However I do question your parental judgement, subjecting your daughter to the toxic atmosphere of game chat. I wonder, if it could even fall under child endangerment laws of your region?
Just because she is a daughter, it does not necessary mean she is a child.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Thanks @rubytrue and daughter, I appreciate a family that plays together stays together. However I do question your parental judgement, subjecting your daughter to the toxic atmosphere of game chat. I wonder, if it could even fall under child endangerment laws of your region?
I suspect whatever she comes across in game chat pales in comparison to what she comes across in high school....
Thanks @rubytrue and daughter, I appreciate a family that plays together stays together. However I do question your parental judgement, subjecting your daughter to the toxic atmosphere of game chat. I wonder, if it could even fall under child endangerment laws of your region?
I suspect whatever she comes across in game chat pales in comparison to what she comes across in high school....
Well I am actually happy she got her $25 worth of zen, I can only imagine what she might spend it on. As for myself, when I started this thread, the 10 zen I requested has yet to arrive... I am making out a massive list of items I might spend it on. Next month I will be away on a road trip to Texas, maybe it will arrive after my return. I am almost certain some of you may even notice my absence and rejoice.
Just killing time...
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,463Arc User
Thanks @rubytrue and daughter, I appreciate a family that plays together stays together. However I do question your parental judgement, subjecting your daughter to the toxic atmosphere of game chat. I wonder, if it could even fall under child endangerment laws of your region?
I suspect whatever she comes across in game chat pales in comparison to what she comes across in high school....
Well I am actually happy she got her $25 worth of zen, I can only imagine what she might spend it on. As for myself, when I started this thread, the 10 zen I requested has yet to arrive... I am making out a massive list of items I might spend it on. Next month I will be away on a road trip to Texas, maybe it will arrive after my return. I am almost certain some of you may even notice my absence and rejoice.
25K Zen is $250.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Thanks @rubytrue and daughter, I appreciate a family that plays together stays together. However I do question your parental judgement, subjecting your daughter to the toxic atmosphere of game chat. I wonder, if it could even fall under child endangerment laws of your region?
I suspect whatever she comes across in game chat pales in comparison to what she comes across in high school....
Well I am actually happy she got her $25 worth of zen, I can only imagine what she might spend it on. As for myself, when I started this thread, the 10 zen I requested has yet to arrive... I am making out a massive list of items I might spend it on. Next month I will be away on a road trip to Texas, maybe it will arrive after my return. I am almost certain some of you may even notice my absence and rejoice.
25K Zen is $250.
It is inflation, it devaluates everything before you know it. Meanwhile I have a small portion of that shopping list I am working on;
8% of an Enchanted Key, 17% of a Strongbox Key, 0.7% of a Basilisk Mount, 8% of a Character Slot... if the new character is a halfling maybe it would be 16%, or 1.4% of a Hairstyle. Those are just a few of the things I am considering spending the 10 zen on when it gets here.
Comments
Seems the forecast is off by a bit, delay accelerating?
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
Over the history of the game, server population has swelled for one month during the new release. According to the stats available to me, the best module (voted by server population) was module 14 Ravenloft. The PC population went up over +34%, I can only assume this was also the case for the consoles. This means out of 1000 players, 340 either returned to the game or were new. I have no data on what the active player-base was back in 2018. However if you assume 5,000 per platform with 3 platforms is 15,000 + 34% = 20,100.
One always assumes that module 6 Elemental Evil was the worst, since it seems to be brought up by the chat here often. While it was 50% less popular than module 5 Rise of Tiamat, it did increase the server population by +12%. This most recent module seems to be doing the direct opposite. Module 20 part 1 saw barely +2% increase and only slightly better than Avernus. Part 2 released and the server population for PC took a radical nosedive -7% making it currently at the bottom. Even adding parts 1 and 2 comes out to a loss of -5%.
With the population so low and few new players your wait time will increase. Assuming they hit bottom there is nowhere to go except up. If Part 3 is attractive to the players they could use an increase of more than 6% to lift this off the very bottom of modules to attract players to the game. The release of module 21 this fall, if they can pull off another Ravenloft or Rise of Tiamat, then you may see a decrease in wait time for the exchange.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
If this is the case, There is another group you are missing. Those that do spend money say for VIP monthly. I usually get a $25-50 PS card every month or so to pay for VIP. Obviously, I do not spend it all at once on my VIP, but I have not found but a few things to buy from the Zen store. I do see thing I would like at the AH but realistically I am not going to spend 8mill AD for acquire a Xuna or other Legendary/Mythic Mounts. They are not available in the zen store, so I am left holding my leftover zen until the following month. Even if I had the cash for enough zen to sell for AD for Xuna. I just do not see that much value....so I hoard my zen..at least until something worthwhile comes along at a good price,
@autumnwitch so the waiting is only 60 days on PS4, that is what it was back in September of last year then it took a giant leap when they exchanged all those bondings for AD here. Did they do that for the players on PS4?
Anyhow siting on 3k zen to pay for 1-3 months of WIP or to convert. that's where I'm at....probably get another 2-3k zen late may early June.
Right now with inflated AD prices, I see no reason to convert as what I would buy is as they say out of my price range (or at least what I am willing to pay.
I am considering getting some more bags via zen yo carry more stuff that I will just end up converting to RP as its seems not many seem to purchase via AH
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
december 9th 2020 Zen demand of a friend was fulfilled on may 2nd 2021. 3 days later than my calculation with 0.612 rate.
As a consquence, waiting time increasing rate has changed to 0.646 in my tool.
This brutal change is probably linked to the "Epic games release" effect (= wagon of new players) fading out, which was I think slowing down the increasing trend during November.
I'm waiting for the winter sale/fest event/holidays effect as a probable new shift in the trend.
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Thank you for your data points and assistance in this study.
P.S. @blargskull - If you posted any AD today, you can expect your Zen after Christmas.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Not expecting that for 6+ months but that's ok cause Im not really playing NWO anymore anyway
I normally look at this in an audio and visual experience, from my testing it in the OS environments. This Zax test is just more testing for me. I try to separate any bias I may have from the game to test. However most online games, with micro-transactions, are normally easy to play and reward the player with virtually nothing. A good example of this, I was testing "Counter-Strike: Global Offensive" and they shell out big bucks for cosmetic skins for guns. There was no improvement made to the guns other than a visual. Highly competitive, simple game play, easy to "win", and virtual rewards are nil. I would attach more information, but anyone interested in seeing the ludicrous pricing can web search "cs:go weapon skins".
All that aside, on to this ZAX backlog, I added a second sheet tab at the bottom left for May to September. As I stated above, unless something happens to change the trend, any AD posted after May 9th will not return Zen until after Christmas of this year. By September 30th the expected return date will be August 11th, 2022. I know some players expect some kind of bailout by Cryptic Studios, I don't see how that can happen. I will update the sheet when there is another push.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Just killing time...
Just killing time...
8% of an Enchanted Key, 17% of a Strongbox Key, 0.7% of a Basilisk Mount, 8% of a Character Slot... if the new character is a halfling maybe it would be 16%, or 1.4% of a Hairstyle. Those are just a few of the things I am considering spending the 10 zen on when it gets here.
Any suggestions?
Just killing time...