test content
What is the Arc Client?
Install Arc

Refining for cheap

2456718

Comments

  • MagicHamsta - Lost CityMagicHamsta - Lost City Posts: 10,466 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    WarrenWolfy does!
    in teh name of science!
    d(^.-d)
    me sense possibility of
    funny-pictures-cat-kittens-fractal-schrodinger-back.jpg
    in teh near future.
    D:
    darthpanda16: Firefox crashed on me. Aryannamage: I don't think I am a GM that would be new.
    Hawk:Do this. closing thread
    frankieraye: I'll see if we can replace the woman with a stick figure and the tiger fangs with marshmallows.//Issues like these need to get escalated quickly to minimize the damage.
    Kantorek: Yeah.. you should try it. It's awesome.
    Sihndra: Nope- not currently possible under any circumstances. Sorry.
    LokisDottir: I mean...not haunting the forums, nope nope..
    Konariraiden: You don't know what you are up against. You will lose.
    Waiting for...Hamster Packs!
    58% chance to get tokens
    41% chance to get an all class pet hamster....but they has already been freed by the magic hamster.
    1% chance to get ban hamstered with the message "Hamsters United!"
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • axt57axt57 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I used 114 mirages on my neon purgatory yesterday and it never got past +2.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    dont ref at 23:00 server time lol ..... 35 mir to +1b:angry
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    dont ref at 23:00 server time lol ..... 35 mir to +1b:angry

    wow. This is fact. Refining very depends on time and where you refining and what you refining.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    never refined at this time .... max i needed for +3 at 90 gear was like 15-17 mir
    and this was 7x +1 with 35....

    does some1 know when si the best time for refined? the poster maybe?
    best place elder of arch?
  • Olba - SanctuaryOlba - Sanctuary Posts: 1,776 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    WarrenWolfy does!
    in teh name of science!
    d(^.-d)
    me sense possibility of
    funny-pictures-cat-kittens-fractal-schrodinger-back.jpg
    in teh near future.
    D:

    Um... do you even know what the heck fractals are? If you did, you would know that the pattern is not actually a fractal.

    And since when were cats able to reproduce by splitting themselves in two?
    If you disregard what I say because of who I am or because of the contents of what I said, you are a fool.

    Everyone wants to be different, but when you're different you wish you were normal.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    never refined at this time .... max i needed for +3 at 90 gear was like 15-17 mir
    and this was 7x +1 with 35....

    does some1 know when si the best time for refined? the poster maybe?
    best place elder of arch?

    It' hard to say. We need to made some statistic of refining. Which is very expensive, because you have to refining at different times, different places and different items.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • MagicHamsta - Lost CityMagicHamsta - Lost City Posts: 10,466 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Um... do you even know what the heck fractals are? If you did, you would know that the pattern is not actually a fractal.

    And since when were cats able to reproduce by splitting themselves in two?

    .....
    it be a joke cartoon.....b:sweat
    yesh me know what a fractal is....
    snowflake.jpg
    they be fun to look at.....a pain to calculate though. (T.T)'

    also no they can't reproduce by splitting themselves....yet
    b:shocked
    although the interesting thing be...that cartoon makes some sense. as if a Schrodinger experiment were to occur there would be multiple theoretical "Schrodinger cats" who would appear to be exactly alike and have "split themselves" into two.
    <----has minor knowledge of particle physics.....(X_x)'
    darthpanda16: Firefox crashed on me. Aryannamage: I don't think I am a GM that would be new.
    Hawk:Do this. closing thread
    frankieraye: I'll see if we can replace the woman with a stick figure and the tiger fangs with marshmallows.//Issues like these need to get escalated quickly to minimize the damage.
    Kantorek: Yeah.. you should try it. It's awesome.
    Sihndra: Nope- not currently possible under any circumstances. Sorry.
    LokisDottir: I mean...not haunting the forums, nope nope..
    Konariraiden: You don't know what you are up against. You will lose.
    Waiting for...Hamster Packs!
    58% chance to get tokens
    41% chance to get an all class pet hamster....but they has already been freed by the magic hamster.
    1% chance to get ban hamstered with the message "Hamsters United!"
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    well I think 1 lvl cities are best for ref :O maybe archosaur i made there stuff and works good ... except now at this time
  • Divine_Death - DreamweaverDivine_Death - Dreamweaver Posts: 1,491 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I'll add my "data" here. I tried it on my +2 TT90 gold wrists, took me 31 mirages to get it to +3. Not bad I guess.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    "Closing this for excess letter Q's" - hawk
  • Sangodoc - DreamweaverSangodoc - Dreamweaver Posts: 501 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    FYI, there is a list of the places Duke Blacke recommends for refining at the various levels up on the wiki. See here.

    Personally, I've had terrible luck at refining, so I feel lucky and quit when I get a +1. b:surrender
  • Bladecutter - SanctuaryBladecutter - Sanctuary Posts: 269 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Principle of refining No X: Refine when theres no players around you

    that has worked for me...
  • Devoted - Lost City Devoted - Lost City Posts: 3,634 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I'm wondering if it isn't a 40% chance each level.

    It's rumored that fortune stones will come out with rising tide which makes me really happy because getting +7 isn't as daunting now.

    Basically fortune stones (if released) will cost about the same as tisha stones. If you fail with a fortune stone your refine doesn't reset or go down 1.


    Looking at the my-en translation, the success rate isn't linear. It could also be that using a fortune stone will chance the success rate due to it being so easy to +12 if refine level doesn't reset and it's a 40% chance each level.

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/my/items/12980
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    .....
    it be a joke cartoon.....b:sweat
    yesh me know what a fractal is....
    I laughed when I saw it. b:chuckle
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Admante - DreamweaverAdmante - Dreamweaver Posts: 323 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I'll add my "data" here. I tried it on my +2 TT90 gold wrists, took me 31 mirages to get it to +3. Not bad I guess.

    Considering the price of mirages and d-orbs, you just saved yourself about 1m. So yeah, not bad.
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    FYI, there is a list of the places Duke Blacke recommends for refining at the various levels up on the wiki. See here.
    My concern with trusting anything Duke says is that I know he does lie about some things, and there's a natural bias to want things like his hints to be true. I don't want that bias to influence my tests, so for now I'm trying to ignore his rumours completely.

    There was a big thread awhile back that insisted Duke could trigger "lucky mode", which meant every time you opened a Lucky Pack it would always give extra items instead of just the usual HP/Mana pots. The natural bias is to want it to be true, and sure enough a lot of people went to a lot of effort to test it, with some swearing they'd proven it to be true after getting favourable results. To this day I'm sure there are people who hoard their Lucky Packs, hoping to finally find the secret 100% sure-fire trigger for Duke's "lucky mode".

    However, it turns out that "lucky mode" isn't just a myth, it's also impossible. Whether or not a Lucky Pack is going to give you just HP/Mana pots, or else more, is something that is decided when the Lucky Pack drops. What you can't see is that they are two completely different items that happen to share the same image and description.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    i get often shards + pills from lucky packs D:


    Refine Areas
    +1 The Harshlands
    +2 The Frozen Path
    +3 Avalanche Canyon, Thousand Wood Ridge, Windswept Grasslands, Courage Path, Land of Buried Bones
    +4 Haunted Path, Tradewind Village, The Great Lake, South Barrier Mountains
    +5 City of Misfortune, Shining Tide Woods, Stairway to Heaven, The White Ridge
    +6 Ancient Wall, Dragon Wilderness, Valley of the Hidden Orchid, Black Mountain
    +7 Broken Plain, Silk Ridge, Peach Blossom Grove, Ridge of the Dreaming Cloud
    +8 Ancient Peak, Wellspring Village, Deserted Sea
    +9 Vibrant Cliffs, Fragrant Hills, Walled Stronghold
    +10 Mount Lantern, Sundown Town, King's Feast
    +11 Immolation Camp, Dribbling Spring, Swamp of the Wraiths
    +12 Forest of Haze, Dragon's End, Plain of Farewells

    how works this ? i dont understand

    if u want +4 u need to go to this place or what? and at which time?
  • shootingstarvnshootingstarvn Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    refined +1 wep to +2 after it reset to 0 with 6 attempts (12mir) 2:20 am server time in arch :O better time for ref now i think
    6:25 bad refining ... cant almost get +1+2
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    how works this ? i dont understand

    if u want +4 u need to go to this place or what? and at which time?
    These are just Duke's rumours. While it's possible they're true, I haven't seen anybody post any proof yet, other than anecdotal accounts of where they have tried it and it worked for them.

    But the question is what happens if you try exactly the same thing at the "wrong" locations, and keep an accurate account of the results of both attempts?

    If somebody is willing to spend 200 or so Mirages at the "correct" location, followed by 200 Mirages at a "wrong" location, then this would probably be enough samples to either confirm or deny these rumours, but unfortunately I don't have access to these NPCs since I'm not in a faction that owns the land.
    refined +1 wep to +2 after it reset to 0 with 6 attempts (12mir) 2:20 am server time in arch :O better time for ref now i think
    6:25 bad refining ... cant almost get +1+2
    Thanks for the info, but unfortunately the sample size you're describing is very small, and it's more likely than not that your results were due to random chance rather than the time you were refining.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I have had similar experiences, which have convinced me that the refine chance is not always the same.

    But figuring out the hidden variables in a random system can be difficult, so some people will prefer to ignore such issues.

    IMO this is in actual fact a flaw with PWI's random generator. The same reason you will miss 3 times in a row on 90+% accuracy and get junk in 100 anniversary packs in a row. Not sure how it works, possible the computer code is set to be random but stick to a set %rate, and when the %rate goes too far in one direction the random generator compensates and balances with a string in the other direction. But as I said, not really sure ^^

    Either way, same as with anniversary packs, if you fail a lot of times in a row your best bet is to log out, wait a bit, log in and retry. So, if you fail to +1 say, 5-6 times in a row try relogging and go for it again a little later.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    IMO this is in actual fact a flaw with PWI's random generator. The same reason you will miss 3 times in a row on 90+% accuracy and get junk in 100 anniversary packs in a row. Not sure how it works, possible the computer code is set to be random but stick to a set %rate, and when the %rate goes too far in one direction the random generator compensates and balances with a string in the other direction. But as I said, not really sure ^^

    Either way, same as with anniversary packs, if you fail a lot of times in a row your best bet is to log out, wait a bit, log in and retry. So, if you fail to +1 say, 5-6 times in a row try relogging and go for it again a little later.
    True. Yesterday I lost hundred mirages I cannot get more than +3.b:angry
    BTW: Random generator doesn't exist we just don't know the key of generating. Make random generator is impossible, we just don't know which principles it working on. Now I'm limited of my english again.b:angry
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    BTW: Random generator doesn't exist we just don't know the key of generating. Make random generator is impossible, we just don't know which principles it working on. Now I'm limited of my english again.b:angry

    Yup, probably why we get big strings of failures in a row instead of true random results
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    True. Yesterday I lost hundred mirages I cannot get more than +3.b:angry
    Assuming the 40% theory is correct, the odds of getting +4 is only 2.5%, so with 100 Mirages you've only got about a 50% chance of getting +4.

    Probably we'll need 1000s of Mirages before any sort of real odds can be confirmed. I'm going to keep working on it in the next few weeks, and I'll share my results.
    Yup, probably why we get big strings of failures in a row instead of true random results
    It's unlikely that the designers of the game would write custom random number generating code, since such generators are part of the standard Java libraries (which is what the server is written in, apparently).

    But if they did, it wouldn't make sense to write ones that are worse than the built-in ones.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    It's unlikely that the designers of the game would write custom random number generating code, since such generators are part of the standard Java libraries (which is what the server is written in, apparently).

    But if they did, it wouldn't make sense to write ones that are worse than the built-in ones.

    Maybe it's a flaw with the standard random generators then? As we know, true randomness is impossible to achieve, so strings of same-results could be a consequence. The odds of 60 fails in a row at 40% chance must be insanely low.

    HH having an obsession with pole is another example of strings of same results. -.-
  • Nymfysubstaz - DreamweaverNymfysubstaz - Dreamweaver Posts: 294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Leaves all the math figurings to the MIT people and just shakes the money tree. Much faster this way. (giggles) And less stress. b:chuckle
    Everyone needs a good innocent girly hump every now & then.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • BrocktheMace - DreamweaverBrocktheMace - Dreamweaver Posts: 15 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    The Duke Blacke has some tips, called "Principles of Refining".
    Any of you ever looked into those?

    One tip that I remember & use:
    1) If first refining of the day fails, wait until a new day to try again. Otherwise, keep going.

    Also:
    -various tips for refinining @ XXX npc; possibly record said tips & get friends from the faction(s) who own the various lands to refine your gear?

    Brock
  • FitHitDShan - SanctuaryFitHitDShan - Sanctuary Posts: 276 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Maybe it's a flaw with the standard random generators then? As we know, true randomness is impossible to achieve, so strings of same-results could be a consequence. The odds of 60 fails in a row at 40% chance must be insanely low.

    HH having an obsession with pole is another example of strings of same results. -.-

    This is a common mis-perception of randomness. Indeed, avoidance of strings of the same thing is one of the ways experts use to identify non-random numbers.

    That being said, I would not swear that the random number generators for this game give completely independant draws every time. That could happen if whatever they are using to generate seeds for the java algorithms is not changing frequently enough. A typical seed source is to take a digit out of the system clock. Perhaps, since many sequences in this game happen on a fixed interval, there actually is something to the perception that some "random" events are correlated across time. But, that likely would not be true of refining unless somebody has figured out a refining macro.
    "?" IS my avatar.
  • skelegskeleg Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Just go to PW data base and check the success rates of the tienkang stones and tisha stones, Youl see the exact number. Theres also the tips that the duke gives in archo, and yes most of them really do work lol.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    skeleg wrote: »
    Just go to PW data base and check the success rates of the tienkang stones and tisha stones, Youl see the exact number. Theres also the tips that the duke gives in archo, and yes most of them really do work lol.

    Where are the exact numbers? I just checked database is not there.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Elenacostel - Heavens TearElenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I refined a level 12 cape (OHT cape) to +3 using 3 Mirages yesterday.

    Then, it took me 5 or 6 Tienkang stones and 20+ Mirages to get my TT90 green leggings from +3 to... +3 =(
Sign In or Register to comment.