But the real question remains: after doing something like that, why would you think that running around telling people would net you one iota of sympathy?
The conventional wisdom with lockboxes is to just buy 'em off the exchange. Lesson learned, I reckon. And I hope your children will have food on the table tonight.
Every new Lockbox and we get these Threads and the same advice. 'It's deja vu all over again.'
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Ok, time for some napkin math, because napkin math is fun.
The odds for a grand prize ship (the raider in this lock box) have been pretty consistently tracked at 1 in 200. I tend to find that estimate very plausible because this isn't a natural phenomena we're talking about, its an arbitrary number chosen by a human being, and human beings really like round numbers. The chances that it's really actually 1 in 213 are VERY LOW in man-made systems.
Watching the "Suchandsuch@Luckyyou" messages shooting across my screen I eyeball the battlecruiser as being about 1 pop per 5 raiders on average. Not rigorously scientific, but again accounting for human-made systems, 1 in 1000 has such a magical ring to it that I'm very comfortable basing my decisions around that. Sure I want the cruiser, but there is no way I'm gonna try to brute force it out with mountains of keys. That is in a word 'stupid' at the amount of money I'm willing to throw at the problem.
So, lets look at 250 attempts with a .999 chance of failure. .999^250 yields... ooo, a 77.87% chance of failure or a 22.129% chance of success.
In other words we should hear from 3 more people just like you before someone drops by to tell us they spent 200 pounds and are delighted at the outcome. Except we'll never actually hear from that bloke because they're in-game enjoying they're new ship and not trying to play 'woe is me' on the boards.
I only ever open Lock Boxes and Promotional Packs when I need the Lobi or I'm shooting for some of the lesser prizes. Otherwise I just buy Master Keys/Promo Packs in bulk and sell them to get the ship(s) I want.
When I first started in STO I did exactly what you did regarding Lock Boxes, OP. Granted, I didn't spend as much money as you did, but I did spend a good amount only to realize it wasn't really worth it. Stuff like that just comes from experience, and a bit of logical reasoning.
Also, people are not going to be "leaving in droves" because of this Lock Box. As I recall this is what, the 16th or 17th one they've released? Didn't do much then, won't do much now.
What's this? Eve Online cheaper than Star Trek Online? Isn't that the game where people lose thousands when they get killed and then have to start all over?
I guess the quote function is not working for me....strange...
Anyway, @kaiserkacto, I would say that its good that we have this thread over and over whenever we get a new lockbox....One might assume we are still getting a decent influx of new players...
STO Member since February 2009. I Was A Trekkie Before It Was Cool ... Sept. 8th, 1966 ... Not To Mention Before Most Folks Around Here Were Born! Forever a STO Veteran-Minion
Yes and no. It's true that, per lockbox, the chance will always be [extremely low number that nobody really knows]%, whether you open just 1 or 1 trillion. There is no mercy counter or gambler's reward system in place to help these poor suckers out--at least none that players are aware of.
However, when opening n lockboxes, your odds of having a ship appear at some point approaches 100% as n approaches infinity.
However, trying to brute-force the RNG like that is not at all recommended. Just grind the EC or buy/sell keys and get it off the exchange in a more reliable way. STO is loads of fun as long as you avoid the lottery traps.
[quote=nikeix]For those with quote lock-out (like me) you can right click on the quote button and force it to work by selecting open, or open in new tab.[/quote] Hey, that worked!
Many, many thanks.
EDIT: Wait... grrrrr... apparently not tgat well on my phone... *grumbles*
$200? wish I could just TRIBBLE off that kinda cash on a *CHANCE*
in some ways I kinda also wish I was delusional enough to feel I have a right to TRIBBLE about gambling and loosing like the OP
you want the ship you want the lobi and you want the material's ... most importantly you want to follow the 62. rule The riskier the road, the greater the profit.
others may think of you a fool but you sir are a true Ferengi. Just keep navigating your ship with skill and grace through the mighty river's of the great material continuum and you will reach The Divine Treasury. Where you can bid for your new live ...
Never consider going to The Vault of Eternal Destitution because as long as you follow the rules in your heart you can still show profit ...
For some reason a duplicate post. The latter was already spelling corrected.
Post edited by ltminns on
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Just out of interest, what is the number that comes just prior to infinity?
In an infinite universe there are only 3 numbers: zero (never), one (unique), and infinity (recurring). Everything between 1 and infinity is an illusion brought on by limited perception.
So 31, because ice cream flavors is one of my favorite illusions.
Not to be confused with either a gazillion or a bajillion.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Comments
I'm gonna need more popcorn for this one.
But the real question remains: after doing something like that, why would you think that running around telling people would net you one iota of sympathy?
So it's "moral" now that you've finally won a bet?
Gamblers. :rolleyes:
/thread ???
The conventional wisdom with lockboxes is to just buy 'em off the exchange. Lesson learned, I reckon. And I hope your children will have food on the table tonight.
Every new Lockbox and we get these Threads and the same advice. 'It's deja vu all over again.'
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
The odds for a grand prize ship (the raider in this lock box) have been pretty consistently tracked at 1 in 200. I tend to find that estimate very plausible because this isn't a natural phenomena we're talking about, its an arbitrary number chosen by a human being, and human beings really like round numbers. The chances that it's really actually 1 in 213 are VERY LOW in man-made systems.
Watching the "Suchandsuch@Luckyyou" messages shooting across my screen I eyeball the battlecruiser as being about 1 pop per 5 raiders on average. Not rigorously scientific, but again accounting for human-made systems, 1 in 1000 has such a magical ring to it that I'm very comfortable basing my decisions around that. Sure I want the cruiser, but there is no way I'm gonna try to brute force it out with mountains of keys. That is in a word 'stupid' at the amount of money I'm willing to throw at the problem.
So, lets look at 250 attempts with a .999 chance of failure. .999^250 yields... ooo, a 77.87% chance of failure or a 22.129% chance of success.
In other words we should hear from 3 more people just like you before someone drops by to tell us they spent 200 pounds and are delighted at the outcome. Except we'll never actually hear from that bloke because they're in-game enjoying they're new ship and not trying to play 'woe is me' on the boards.
When I first started in STO I did exactly what you did regarding Lock Boxes, OP. Granted, I didn't spend as much money as you did, but I did spend a good amount only to realize it wasn't really worth it. Stuff like that just comes from experience, and a bit of logical reasoning.
Also, people are not going to be "leaving in droves" because of this Lock Box. As I recall this is what, the 16th or 17th one they've released? Didn't do much then, won't do much now.
In every place,
The deeds of men remain the same..."
What's this? Eve Online cheaper than Star Trek Online? Isn't that the game where people lose thousands when they get killed and then have to start all over?
Anyway, @kaiserkacto, I would say that its good that we have this thread over and over whenever we get a new lockbox....One might assume we are still getting a decent influx of new players...
*silverlining?*
Co-Founder of TOS Veterans and TOS Qan Mang
Anyway...
Is it Popcorn Time?
I Was A Trekkie Before It Was Cool ... Sept. 8th, 1966 ... Not To Mention Before Most Folks Around Here Were Born!
Forever a STO Veteran-Minion
It's a good thing too, the my local Farm & Fleet had a sale on microwave popcorn, by the case..
However, when opening n lockboxes, your odds of having a ship appear at some point approaches 100% as n approaches infinity.
However, trying to brute-force the RNG like that is not at all recommended. Just grind the EC or buy/sell keys and get it off the exchange in a more reliable way. STO is loads of fun as long as you avoid the lottery traps.
Cool, Thanks
Co-Founder of TOS Veterans and TOS Qan Mang
Hey, that worked!
Many, many thanks.
EDIT: Wait... grrrrr... apparently not tgat well on my phone... *grumbles*
in some ways I kinda also wish I was delusional enough to feel I have a right to TRIBBLE about gambling and loosing like the OP
Just out of interest, what is the number that comes just prior to infinity?
don't forget the 10. rule Greed is eternal.
you want the ship you want the lobi and you want the material's ... most importantly you want to follow the 62. rule The riskier the road, the greater the profit.
others may think of you a fool but you sir are a true Ferengi. Just keep navigating your ship with skill and grace through the mighty river's of the great material continuum and you will reach The Divine Treasury. Where you can bid for your new live ...
Never consider going to The Vault of Eternal Destitution because as long as you follow the rules in your heart you can still show profit ...
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
In an infinite universe there are only 3 numbers: zero (never), one (unique), and infinity (recurring). Everything between 1 and infinity is an illusion brought on by limited perception.
So 31, because ice cream flavors is one of my favorite illusions.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'