42. As we all know that is the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
a fool and his money is so easily parted.
unlocking £10 worth of boxes is fine, its worth a little flutter and even to spend £25 is within reason but to spend more then this is just crazy.
people just don't understand statistics, it may well be that the chances of winning a ship is 200-1 but that does not mean if you open 200 boxes you are guaranteed to get a ship, you could open 500 boxes and still not get a ship but some other lucky so and so could open one box and get a ship first time, its just luck and yours is obviously in short supply.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Yes and no. It's true that, per lockbox, the chance will always be [extremely low number that nobody really knows]%, whether you open just 1 or 1 trillion. There is no mercy counter or gambler's reward system in place to help these poor suckers out--at least none that players are aware of.
However, when opening n lockboxes, your odds of having a ship appear at some point approaches 100% as n approaches infinity.
However, trying to brute-force the RNG like that is not at all recommended. Just grind the EC or buy/sell keys and get it off the exchange in a more reliable way. STO is loads of fun as long as you avoid the lottery traps.
Isn't that exactly what the "gambler's fallacy" is? The chance to win a ship never changes, even though the probability of not winning a ship statistically decreases over time. That's not an easy concept to grasp, but no matter how many boxes are opened the chances never change. What you say is still true but it doesn't influence those chances at all.
^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
"No. Men do not roar. Women roar. Then they hurl heavy objects... and claw at you." -Worf, son of Mogh
"A filthy, mangy beast, but in its bony breast beat the heart of a warrior" - "faithful" (...) "but ever-ready to follow the call of the wild." - Martok, about a Targ
"That pig smelled horrid. A sweet-sour, extremely pungent odor. I showered and showered, and it took me a week to get rid of it!" - Robert Justman, appreciating Emmy-Lou
Yes and no. It's true that, per lockbox, the chance will always be [extremely low number that nobody really knows]%, whether you open just 1 or 1 trillion. There is no mercy counter or gambler's reward system in place to help these poor suckers out--at least none that players are aware of.
However, when opening n lockboxes, your odds of having a ship appear at some point approaches 100% as n approaches infinity.
However, trying to brute-force the RNG like that is not at all recommended. Just grind the EC or buy/sell keys and get it off the exchange in a more reliable way. STO is loads of fun as long as you avoid the lottery traps.
Isn't that exactly what the "gambler's fallacy" is? The chance to win a ship never changes, even though the probability of not winning a ship statistically decreases over time. That's not an easy concept to grasp, but no matter how many boxes are opened the chances never change. What you say is still true but it doesn't influence those chances at all.
No, the gambler's fallacy is believing your chances have increased for box n after you open n-1 boxes, this is the chance before you open box 1 of the n.
That is, if you buy 100 keys your odds of winning are higher (until you use them) than if you buy 10 keys.
Reality is the opposite of the fallacy -- the more boxes of the n that you open, the lower the odds are that you'll find a ship in what is left of the pile.
Sounds like you should have just bought and sold keys. You would have one by now. Besides, the ship is not that great. For me, my Fleet T6 Arbiter is superior. However, the Na'kuhl Battlecruiser would make a good admiralty ship!
Trouble is, if everyone takes this advice, no one opens any boxes, so there are no ships on the Exchange to buy. You need some fools for the system to work at all.
Trouble is, if everyone takes this advice, no one opens any boxes, so there are no ships on the Exchange to buy. You need some fools for the system to work at all.
When Zen Bonus Week kicks in and 15% off keys kicks in, I drop a couple of dollars that would otherwise have been spent in movie theaters to get some keys. Then I open some boxes to get the crew drops (for the Fleet projects) and the crispy, crunchy, upgrade boosters and crafting mats. (They have less calories than popcorn, which is good.) It's a choice about where to spend my entertainment dollars (I can't contribute any more to the 401k than I already am), so spending it here instead of at a theater 15 miles away seems like a good thing to me.
OP, if you're so angered by it, take this opportunity to go to your local MP and ask that chance boxes in any videogame be required by UK law to post the odds of all potential included prizes.
Secondly, I suggest looking up any of the old lock boxes on sto wiki and paying close attention to the drop rate data that's posted on some of the pages. It's quite telling of the approximate drop rate that Cryptic in good concience should be giving us.
What some of the "esteemed" people in here have neglected to mention is that some countries require gambling establishments to post the odds of winning in their casinos so at least you know your chances despite the fact that the house tends to win. I see people here are quick are pile on you without thinking things through or even having one ounce of compassion within them to understand that many people have been duped by this system.
God speed and don't ever knowlingly fall for that trap again. Instead, buy zen and then keys. When a new lock box comes out, just sell the keys individually until you've hit the 250 mil mark. Presto! You have enough EC to buy your desired ship.
just saying: there is a way to get the ship without gambling and it is certainly cheaper than 200 pounds sterling...I'm not revealing that trick here though.
OP in 3 years I won 1 ship. ONE SHIP. do you see me complaining? No. Why? Because it's called gambling and you're garunteed to win something. So get over yourself.
Defending The Galaxy By Breaking One Starfleet Regulation After The Next.
(...)
What some of the "esteemed" people in here have neglected to mention is that some countries require gambling establishments to post the odds of winning in their casinos so at least you know your chances despite the fact that the house tends to win. I see people here are quick are pile on you without thinking things through or even having one ounce of compassion within them to understand that many people have been duped by this system.
(...)
The Lockboxes aren't "gambling" in a legal sense since you always get Lobi crystals when opening them. The main function of the box is to provide Lobi and that happens always, you never "lose" your investment. Everything else are just bonus prizes and they are never advertised as anything but bonus prizes.
I agree that it would be nice and a sign of decency and courtesy for Cryptic to reveal the odds but they don't have to as far s I know and thus they won't do it as they do not operate a gambling estblishment.
^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
"No. Men do not roar. Women roar. Then they hurl heavy objects... and claw at you." -Worf, son of Mogh
"A filthy, mangy beast, but in its bony breast beat the heart of a warrior" - "faithful" (...) "but ever-ready to follow the call of the wild." - Martok, about a Targ
"That pig smelled horrid. A sweet-sour, extremely pungent odor. I showered and showered, and it took me a week to get rid of it!" - Robert Justman, appreciating Emmy-Lou
That's called a legal loophole or a technicality. However, following the letter of the law doesn't necessarily mean you're adhereing to the spirit of the law. Big difference there my friend.
US and EU law will catch up with chance box shenanigans eventually when people and politicians realize the end result is the same: lives are ruined through a new sort of quasi gambling that has managed to slip through the legal cracks and take advantage of laws that were never meant to be misinterpreted that way.
That's called a legal loophole or a technicality. However, following the letter of the law doesn't necessarily mean you're adhereing to the spirit of the law. Big difference there my friend.
Caveat Emptor
Cryptic is not opening anybody's wallet without permission. If a person is stupid enough to spend over $200 then that is their own problem.
Except that these ludopaths will probably end up in jail or in a mental institution in which case you or I foot the bill for their care with tax payer money and it becomes "our problem." Oh, I didn't see it happen so it musn't effect me. Your reasoning leaves much to be desired.
For those with quote lock-out (like me) you can right click on the quote button and force it to work by selecting open, or open in new tab.
Ahhh... thank you very much.
STO Member since February 2009. I Was A Trekkie Before It Was Cool ... Sept. 8th, 1966 ... Not To Mention Before Most Folks Around Here Were Born! Forever a STO Veteran-Minion
Except that these ludopaths will probably end up in jail or in a mental institution in which case you or I foot the bill for their care with tax payer money and it becomes "our problem." Oh, I didn't see it happen so it musn't effect me. Your reasoning leaves much to be desired.
That's certainly a lot of big jumps to make based upon somebody spending money on a lockbox...
We are talking digital goods here, not crack cocaine :P
So yes, it is not your problem or my problem and making wild assumptions about the tax payer footing the bill for such behaviour is simply ridiculous.
Comments
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
My Ship Builds: USS Conqueror, HMS Victorious, HMS Concord, ISS Queen Elizabeth, Black Widow III
Click here to view my DeviantArt.
unlocking £10 worth of boxes is fine, its worth a little flutter and even to spend £25 is within reason but to spend more then this is just crazy.
people just don't understand statistics, it may well be that the chances of winning a ship is 200-1 but that does not mean if you open 200 boxes you are guaranteed to get a ship, you could open 500 boxes and still not get a ship but some other lucky so and so could open one box and get a ship first time, its just luck and yours is obviously in short supply.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Isn't that exactly what the "gambler's fallacy" is? The chance to win a ship never changes, even though the probability of not winning a ship statistically decreases over time. That's not an easy concept to grasp, but no matter how many boxes are opened the chances never change. What you say is still true but it doesn't influence those chances at all.
Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
No, the gambler's fallacy is believing your chances have increased for box n after you open n-1 boxes, this is the chance before you open box 1 of the n.
That is, if you buy 100 keys your odds of winning are higher (until you use them) than if you buy 10 keys.
Reality is the opposite of the fallacy -- the more boxes of the n that you open, the lower the odds are that you'll find a ship in what is left of the pile.
Sounds like you should have just bought and sold keys. You would have one by now. Besides, the ship is not that great. For me, my Fleet T6 Arbiter is superior. However, the Na'kuhl Battlecruiser would make a good admiralty ship!
Wait until you grand total spent tallies $10,450 in 2 years of actual play time not counting breaks.
heres another original
if you right click on "QUOTE" and select open in a new tab it will open a new tab with the queted text in place.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
My character Tsin'xing
Yeah, that's what, almost enough for lifetime sub, right?
Accolade unlocked: Quark's patsy.
I remember EVE being quite expensive and much more frustrating than STO, which is why I quit playing EVE Online.
Co-Leader of Serenity's Grasp
why use two fingers when you can use one?
ok, I'm lazy. LOL.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Rule of Acquisition 141: "Only fools pay retail."
But then who will create all these silly threads?
Trouble is, if everyone takes this advice, no one opens any boxes, so there are no ships on the Exchange to buy. You need some fools for the system to work at all.
The other day it was $284, so if you'd had $281 you'd have gotten off easy.
When Zen Bonus Week kicks in and 15% off keys kicks in, I drop a couple of dollars that would otherwise have been spent in movie theaters to get some keys. Then I open some boxes to get the crew drops (for the Fleet projects) and the crispy, crunchy, upgrade boosters and crafting mats. (They have less calories than popcorn, which is good.) It's a choice about where to spend my entertainment dollars (I can't contribute any more to the 401k than I already am), so spending it here instead of at a theater 15 miles away seems like a good thing to me.
Secondly, I suggest looking up any of the old lock boxes on sto wiki and paying close attention to the drop rate data that's posted on some of the pages. It's quite telling of the approximate drop rate that Cryptic in good concience should be giving us.
What some of the "esteemed" people in here have neglected to mention is that some countries require gambling establishments to post the odds of winning in their casinos so at least you know your chances despite the fact that the house tends to win. I see people here are quick are pile on you without thinking things through or even having one ounce of compassion within them to understand that many people have been duped by this system.
God speed and don't ever knowlingly fall for that trap again. Instead, buy zen and then keys. When a new lock box comes out, just sell the keys individually until you've hit the 250 mil mark. Presto! You have enough EC to buy your desired ship.
Defending The Galaxy By Breaking One Starfleet Regulation After The Next.
The Lockboxes aren't "gambling" in a legal sense since you always get Lobi crystals when opening them. The main function of the box is to provide Lobi and that happens always, you never "lose" your investment. Everything else are just bonus prizes and they are never advertised as anything but bonus prizes.
I agree that it would be nice and a sign of decency and courtesy for Cryptic to reveal the odds but they don't have to as far s I know and thus they won't do it as they do not operate a gambling estblishment.
Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
US and EU law will catch up with chance box shenanigans eventually when people and politicians realize the end result is the same: lives are ruined through a new sort of quasi gambling that has managed to slip through the legal cracks and take advantage of laws that were never meant to be misinterpreted that way.
Caveat Emptor
Cryptic is not opening anybody's wallet without permission. If a person is stupid enough to spend over $200 then that is their own problem.
Ahhh... thank you very much.
I Was A Trekkie Before It Was Cool ... Sept. 8th, 1966 ... Not To Mention Before Most Folks Around Here Were Born!
Forever a STO Veteran-Minion
That's certainly a lot of big jumps to make based upon somebody spending money on a lockbox...
We are talking digital goods here, not crack cocaine :P
So yes, it is not your problem or my problem and making wild assumptions about the tax payer footing the bill for such behaviour is simply ridiculous.