theycallmetomuMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,861Arc User
Bots distort the markets in two ways.
1.) They mass produce certain items, causing those items to be worth a trivial amount. Okay, not necessarily a problem if you're a consumer.
2.) In the process of selling those mass produced goods, they hoard large amounts of currency. They then sell that currency to players illegally, thus distorting the prices of all items, because the expected income/wealth of players is determined not by time spent in game or money given to the developer, but rather by how much money is spent on third party sites.
It's true that if bots simply hoarded items, then sold them on the AH, and then the AD they gained just mysteriously disappeared, this would be a net win for the player base (assuming that it's a net win for the player base to be able to level up artifacts and enchantments that much easier). But this doesn't mean the bots don't have a distorting presence, even when they're not injecting astral diamonds into the economy.
I guess this was another hit at botters who stacked gmops though several players got hit as well. The problem with the game however is NOT AD, it never was. Its the continued flow of people moving away from the non-existent content and the non existent management. NW for PC became the beta testing for XBOX. Its been 2.5 years and the same old content is recycled to the point of pure disgust. However its brand new for the XBOX players so they are re-living these last 2.5 years with almost all the flaws and mistakes just a little bit calibrated. So i guess now we have 2-3 people working for the well being of the NW PC version and the rest are focused on XBOX. So we are practically the Preview server for XBOX with NO REAL ATTENTION from cryptic for our gaming needs. Add the horrendous management who only care about money without ANY vision or love about this game and you have a nice rotten stew served for the months to come. Like someone said a few days ago, this game BEGS to escape from Cryptic's claws so it may have a chance to be taken care of as it SHOULD. There are TENS OF THOUSANDS of people who LOVE Dungeons n Dragons, who LOVE the idea of Neverwinter Online and we all need someone to take care of our LOVE not step on it and crush it cause they dont know how to handle it. Enough with this mockery. And i m not bashing at developers this time cause that is something ABOVE them, they are just the minions of the greater evil this company is to this franchise.
Nice sentiment. And all I to say is.... After STO and CO you are surprised? Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it... and for myself, I should have remembered that. Cyptic is getting a certain reputation... and repeating certain patterns... which makes me as a consumer very leery of ever investing any time or money in a Cyptic product.
Ever again.
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theycallmetomuMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,861Arc User
Honestly, I'm at the point where I think all D&D CRPG IPs, MMO or otherwise, seem doomed to failure.
Tried out the pre-release of Sword Coast Legends, and it has the same annoying aspect of being deliberately different from D&D game rules that NWO did, but without the excuse of being an MMO.
Honestly, I'm at the point where I think all D&D CRPG IPs, MMO or otherwise, seem doomed to failure.
Tried out the pre-release of Sword Coast Legends, and it has the same annoying aspect of being deliberately different from D&D game rules that NWO did, but without the excuse of being an MMO.
The problem isnt with the game developers as much as its with today's gamer. Today's gamers cannot spend 5 seconds in an instructional manual. They want simple games on the go to the bathroom or the grocery store. They want to walk into walls and crash into cars playing with their cell phones.
Its a very difficult gamers market today, when big corporations want the big bucks and free advertising of the mobile gamers market brings them. Regardless how badly their game regurgitates.
Give me a Commodore Amiga or even an original Pentium PC, when games were games.
The indie gamers market is where the action is. We need Big corporations to buck the trends and develop a game for those of us with a MIND. Who want a real deep gamers experience. That's what D&D used to offer.
WotC should insist on a certain level of complexity. Stop letting developers build games for today's mobile crowd, and build a game with mind boggling features and variety. So DMs can explore and share their minds, and adventurers can journey to a simpler time, when games took you places.
Not sure when you would need a C-ward. I use C-ward for 1% chance only. The next lowest I have tried was 10% and I just use P-ward. I used less than 15 P-ward in total to upgrade 3 Artifacts to Orange. I have not have a chance to try 3% or 5%.
i have had the misfortune of using up 35 pres. wards to upgrade from epic to legendary (10% chance), that didn't work out so had to shell out extra for a coal. ward.
That bridge takes me to Underdark. Without the bridge I was gone. Now I'm interested. If they deliver on Underdark, I'll be "all in" for the first time in awhile.
I agree. There is chance there. Let's hope we get something interesting and fresh to play.
Main problem is still the fact that there are no means of making AD. There are just too few dungeons and the items are Bound on Pickup. So not only do we have a small 24k refining limit, but salvaging epic 70lvl items doesn't give more than 10k as old 60lvl epics used to. On the other hand we cannot sell items from dungeons, because they are not Bound on Equip. Cryptic has done everything to make players pay and has enforced pay to win even more! Every time there is a change, economy gets screwed and Cryptic tries to cash in our efforts. So what if the GMOPS go down? Still players with money will have the upper hand in markets and economy. There are no good alternatives for free players to make AD, especially when there is no way other than salvaging.
So, any ideas yet on how solo players can generate AD? The new prices are nice, but if a players generation rate is zero, any price is meaningless.
--Invoke daily = 3k AD, over 2 1/2 hours
--Run 2 normal 3-man dungeons (I like nToS) = 6k+AD (at least after AD is auto-looted to your bag), 15 minutes for 2 runs. (Edit: note that you don't need a key to get the AD, either now or after they fix it).
3-man dungeons are barely "group content", since they can be soloed by pretty much any lvl 70 -- and I have gotten into a nToS within seconds of queuing every time I've tried since they elminated DD hours.
I do agree that they need to add AD to daily quests in some manner, because if you are concentrating on SH quests or doing campaigns for boons, most of your playtime will net you zero AD.
Some people don't like dungeons. Like you said in your last paragraph, some people like to spend their precious time of 1 or 2 hours a day doing daily quests, campaigns or stronghold quests, and those do not grant AD atm.
EDIT please also -75% the cost of changing appearance of stuff! xD. 50k to make my new ugly l70 artifact orb look like the nice blue orb with gold and red lines/flowers is too much.
NWO doesn't even use an actual RNG except to populate its pseudo random lookup tables which are what the game uses to decide if your lockbox has something good or something worthless, you hit for a crit or your refinement is successful or not. It's like a card game where all the numbers are pre-decided in the deck and you are just drawing them. A live RNG is much too computationally expensive for a game like this that has to run on reasonable hardware.
Having lived in Nevada most my life, I can tell you with confidence that millions don't understand them, the city of Las Vegas was built on that premise
If you flip a coin 100 times whats the odds it will come up heads out of that 100? 49.9999%, same odds for tails. Why 49.9999%? Because very, very rarely it COULD land on neither heads/tails and land on edge (a coin is 3D don't you know, it has 3 surfaces!)
So if you flipped that coin 99 times and despite the law of averages it came up heads those 99 times, whats the odds it comes up tails that 100th flip? Still 49.9999%, what happened before does not effect what happened the 100th time.
So people that complain that it took them X amount of times with a 20% odds or 10%, no matter how many times they try, it don't matter, what happened the 10th time or the 50th time has no bearing, it's all within the realm of statistical averages.
With that being said, yes there are many games (this one too) that have had bogus RGN. Cryptic being "cryptic" don't open their source data, so nobody gets to test independent of their claims that it is indeed actually statistcly sound.
OK, you dropped the cost on some items, introduced a new item that takes over from one if the cheaper items and still I have, as a solo player, no way to earn a reasonable amount of AD ingame. Whoop-de-HAMSTER-doo!
That's the meaning of the second M in MMO Else i would recommend some nice single player games to you if you wish.
Please fix Zhentarim Warlock companion's skill "Arcane Warping" to the originally intended "Arcane Boost" zhentarim-warlock-companion
Regarding "the economy"; the prices of things aren't really "reduced" if the opportunity to obtain the currency to purchase those items is also "reduced" as far as I am concerned. When a person has to put as much or more effort into obtaining the currency needed to make those purchases at a reduced price because the amount and opportunity to earn that currency has also been reduced - it is little different than the way it was prior to the much vaunted "fix".
Personally I think since:
AD in Gateway have been eliminated,
AD in most of Leadership has been eliminated,
AD in Daily Dungeons have been eliminated,
AD in hourly Skirmishes have been all but eliminated (what used to take ah hour now takes an entire day),
it would be nice to see some random AD drops appear in opened chests (dungoneering, religious, arcane, nature, thievery or just regular chests on quest maps) or drop from opponents as scrolls, coins and equipment currently does.
In my opinion this would give people much more incentive to actually play Neverwinter instead of trying to figure out a way to make astral diamonds in lieu of actually playing.
The more time a person puts into doing quests, individually or in groups the more astral diamonds an player has the potential of accumulating.
Being able to obtain seals is good, but there is only so much a player can purchase with seals and after obtaining a full set of armor, weapons or what ever, there is little incentive to do the quests for seals, except to obtain otherwise unusable, duplicate pieces of armor and weapons to salvage for astral diamonds.
My opinion.
DD~
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ambisinisterrMember, Neverwinter ModeratorPosts: 10,462Community Moderator
Key word... GROWING! They could have nipped this in the bud early, and limited the number of Alts that could Craft, and resolved the issue.
And if you took a moment to look for anything else I said regarding this change then you would have noticed several posts in which I said my biggest gripe was that it took two years for this change to be made.
However I will also sand by my assertions that this change needed to happen regardless of how long it took. It would have been better if it was done two years ago but it is better done today than next year.
I can't fault you for reading one post and making a response but it really was an incorrect assumption on my opinion which a few seconds of time could have dispelled.
1.) They mass produce certain items, causing those items to be worth a trivial amount. Okay, not necessarily a problem if you're a consumer.
2.) In the process of selling those mass produced goods, they hoard large amounts of currency. They then sell that currency to players illegally, thus distorting the prices of all items, because the expected income/wealth of players is determined not by time spent in game or money given to the developer, but rather by how much money is spent on third party sites.
It's true that if bots simply hoarded items, then sold them on the AH, and then the AD they gained just mysteriously disappeared, this would be a net win for the player base (assuming that it's a net win for the player base to be able to level up artifacts and enchantments that much easier). But this doesn't mean the bots don't have a distorting presence, even when they're not injecting astral diamonds into the economy.
The AD earned by RP-farming bots already exist in the economy. Those AD are transferred from player to bot for the cheap RP. It is not created out of thin air like the AD from leadership armies that causes most of the inflation and benefits only the account owner.
When the bot sells the AD to another player, they have to do it via the AH and 10% of its value is taxed and removed from the economy. So the bots makes a profit by providing a service to the players and doesn't negatively affect the economy. Nothing wrong with that.
If RP-farming bots are distorting the economy, it benefits the players by allowing them to buy cheap RP. I'm surprised there are still so many bot-bashing Luddites out there that does not understand this.
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psyb3rtr011Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 340Arc User
Key word... GROWING! They could have nipped this in the bud early, and limited the number of Alts that could Craft, and resolved the issue.
And if you took a moment to look for anything else I said regarding this change then you would have noticed several posts in which I said my biggest gripe was that it took two years for this change to be made.
However I will also sand by my assertions that this change needed to happen regardless of how long it took. It would have been better if it was done two years ago but it is better done today than next year.
I can't fault you for reading one post and making a response but it really was an incorrect assumption on my opinion which a few seconds of time could have dispelled.
I was not assuming anything, I was simply adding clarification to the problem with regards Growing.
Cryptic had to have known for a while that there was a problem, after all you and others, had addressed this fact shortly after the game first came out. I have often commented on it in the past, to something to the effect of limiting the number of Alts that could craft, and I have previously (Prior to the removal of Leaderships ability to earn AD) made suggestions on ways to improve Crafting, so that they are co-dependents, and the ones that award the best Gear and AD, would require inputs from other crafts.
Sorry if my post seemed to be against yours in any way. That was not the intent.
Key word... GROWING! They could have nipped this in the bud early, and limited the number of Alts that could Craft, and resolved the issue.
And if you took a moment to look for anything else I said regarding this change then you would have noticed several posts in which I said my biggest gripe was that it took two years for this change to be made.
However I will also sand by my assertions that this change needed to happen regardless of how long it took. It would have been better if it was done two years ago but it is better done today than next year.
I can't fault you for reading one post and making a response but it really was an incorrect assumption on my opinion which a few seconds of time could have dispelled.
and in 2 years the best they could come up with is update leadership set adreward = 0 where adreward not null?
Having lived in Nevada most my life, I can tell you with confidence that millions don't understand them, the city of Las Vegas was built on that premise
If you flip a coin 100 times whats the odds it will come up heads out of that 100? 49.9999%, same odds for tails. Why 49.9999%? Because very, very rarely it COULD land on neither heads/tails and land on edge (a coin is 3D don't you know, it has 3 surfaces!)
So if you flipped that coin 99 times and despite the law of averages it came up heads those 99 times, whats the odds it comes up tails that 100th flip? Still 49.9999%, what happened before does not effect what happened the 100th time.
So people that complain that it took them X amount of times with a 20% odds or 10%, no matter how many times they try, it don't matter, what happened the 10th time or the 50th time has no bearing, it's all within the realm of statistical averages.
With that being said, yes there are many games (this one too) that have had bogus RGN. Cryptic being "cryptic" don't open their source data, so nobody gets to test independent of their claims that it is indeed actually statistcly sound.
A coin flip isn't RNG. Flipping a coin isn't RNG because it's influenced by so many factors including the height you throw it at, the starting face and the speed of the rotation. All of those most likely will be different per throw. RNG is meant to be a completely RANDOM outcome that has nothing influencing the random outcome. In RNG situations there are also no null outcomes unlike throwing a coin where there is the near impossible chance of landing on edge.
I still think that instead of removing AD from leadership, they should have just drastically altered the timing of leadership tasks. Not so much abuse is possible if you can really only run one set of AD-earning tasks a day. So instead of removing AD rewards, make the tasks that reward AD take 12-20 hours depending on how much they award.
Leadership is essential for anyone who can't put 2.5-3 hours into the game in 1 day (you know the people with jobs, who therefor have money to spend, but won't/will leave if they feel like the game doesn't let them keep up.)
With the recent changes to the AD economy, we are going to be reducing the cost on a few items in the Wondrous Bazaar, and adding a new item.
Marks of Potency will be reduced from 25k AD to 6k AD
Greater Marks of Potency will be reduced from 100k AD to 25k AD
*NEW* Superior Marks of Potency will be priced at 100k AD
In addition, we are changing some of the upgrade requirements on higher end Enchantments and Runestones. Weapon and Armor Enhancement gems will not be changed at this time.
Going from Rank 10->11 will now cost 2 Superior Marks of Potency, instead of 5 Greater Marks of Potency
Going from Rank 11->12 will now cost 4 Superior Marks of Potency, instead of 5 Greater Marks of Potency
We are reviewing all of the locations Greater Marks of Potency drop/reward in the game, and are swapping those for Superior Marks where appropriate.
These changes will be going live very soon. Once they’re live and we can monitor performance for a bit, we will re-evaluate and see if further changes are necessary. As an FYI, we are continuing to monitor ALL Astral Diamond costs/performance/etc. as we work to balance this economy. Thank you for your patience.
Scott Shicoff Lead Designer
A nice step. Hopefully this will apply to all artifacts including weapons, neck, and belts too - bloody expensive upgrading these to something useful . I decided to buy an artifact neck/waist off the auction house, and ended up with HAMSTER green artifacts that were worse than the blues I replaced them with - the plan being "oh, it won't be so bad to get these to blue or even purple so they will be better than the blues I replaced. - Yeah about that - that was over a month ago...
A suggestion - have an "overflow" type bag exclusively for character bound items. Account bound and unbound I can deal with but this character bound stuff is just cluttering up my very expensive bag space until a double RP day or I simply can't fit them any more...
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theycallmetomuMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,861Arc User
Having lived in Nevada most my life, I can tell you with confidence that millions don't understand them, the city of Las Vegas was built on that premise
If you flip a coin 100 times whats the odds it will come up heads out of that 100? 49.9999%, same odds for tails. Why 49.9999%? Because very, very rarely it COULD land on neither heads/tails and land on edge (a coin is 3D don't you know, it has 3 surfaces!)
So if you flipped that coin 99 times and despite the law of averages it came up heads those 99 times, whats the odds it comes up tails that 100th flip? Still 49.9999%, what happened before does not effect what happened the 100th time.
So people that complain that it took them X amount of times with a 20% odds or 10%, no matter how many times they try, it don't matter, what happened the 10th time or the 50th time has no bearing, it's all within the realm of statistical averages.
With that being said, yes there are many games (this one too) that have had bogus RGN. Cryptic being "cryptic" don't open their source data, so nobody gets to test independent of their claims that it is indeed actually statistcly sound.
Any individual coin flip is rough 50% one way or the other, but a sample of 30 continuous flips having a specific pattern can be modeled as well.
The chance of your next refinement attempt succeeding or failing is always that 10%. But, before you start, the chance that you'll fail 30 times in a row, for instance, is only 4.23%. It can certainly happen. But if it happens twice in a row-meaning, two refinements each requiring 30 attempts-then the joint probability of that occuring is much lower.
tl;dr, don't confuse all discussions of probability with gamblers fallacy. Gamblers fallacy is only when you assert that the probability going forwards is affected by past attempts. Analyzing the probability of a set of randomized events having taken the shape that they did going in is not a fallacy.
Cant you just rename the existing GMOP's to be SMOP's without kittens everyone that currently holds GMOP's, Rename MOP's to GMOP's and create a new MOP at 6k instead of the way you are changing the values of the existing and introducing a new item that is exactly the same as the existing GMOP, seems like some Irish logic was used when you worked out how to do this.
Anyone that has GMOP's in the bank has been screwed with a massive loss in value of their assets just from the announcement being made ...
in the interest of further balancing ad economy would the devs consider also lowering the cost of upgrading pets and mounts ? mount training 3 costs more than many single character epic mounts on the auction house! and i would really like to upgrade my starry panther at close to the same cost as buying an epic mount also consider a mount training pack on zen market that grants 1 mount training II and one mount training III to each character on the account, bind to character on pickup for around the same price as an epic account wide mount
It was done intentionally. Gmops are a form of curency just like enchanted keys used to be. We all know what happened to the economy when they became bound to account. Same thing is going to happen here. They are trying to rapidly deflate the economy.
Ara Atheanes GWF
Traxus Atheanes GF
Bastiel Atheanes DC
Ellara Atheanes CW
Keira Atheanes TR
Sarasin Atheanes SW
Jerkface McGee HR
-MANTARA- OP
Seems a bit odd to reduce the price on the thing we wanted reducing but then to introduce a higher tier version at a higher price, thus decreasing our need for the GMoP. Might be a bit of a moot point in any case as folks will not be able to afford the old or the new ones unless AD income gets boosted somehow.
The devs certainly seem to believe in making huge Blitzkrieg changes rather than small incremental tweaks hehe.
Comments
TYRS PALADIUM - A Premier Neverwinter Online Guild
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1.) They mass produce certain items, causing those items to be worth a trivial amount. Okay, not necessarily a problem if you're a consumer.
2.) In the process of selling those mass produced goods, they hoard large amounts of currency. They then sell that currency to players illegally, thus distorting the prices of all items, because the expected income/wealth of players is determined not by time spent in game or money given to the developer, but rather by how much money is spent on third party sites.
It's true that if bots simply hoarded items, then sold them on the AH, and then the AD they gained just mysteriously disappeared, this would be a net win for the player base (assuming that it's a net win for the player base to be able to level up artifacts and enchantments that much easier). But this doesn't mean the bots don't have a distorting presence, even when they're not injecting astral diamonds into the economy.
Ever again.
Tried out the pre-release of Sword Coast Legends, and it has the same annoying aspect of being deliberately different from D&D game rules that NWO did, but without the excuse of being an MMO.
Its a very difficult gamers market today, when big corporations want the big bucks and free advertising of the mobile gamers market brings them. Regardless how badly their game regurgitates.
Give me a Commodore Amiga or even an original Pentium PC, when games were games.
The indie gamers market is where the action is. We need Big corporations to buck the trends and develop a game for those of us with a MIND. Who want a real deep gamers experience. That's what D&D used to offer.
WotC should insist on a certain level of complexity. Stop letting developers build games for today's mobile crowd, and build a game with mind boggling features and variety. So DMs can explore and share their minds, and adventurers can journey to a simpler time, when games took you places.
TYRS PALADIUM - A Premier Neverwinter Online Guild
No Drama. Camaraderie. TEAM Focus. That's the TYRS way. If that's your style, come join us!
Research our Guild here: Read our official Recruitment thread | Sign up here: Tyrs Guild Website! | NEVERWINTER GUILD LEADERS: Join the Fellowship!
But, I mean, people want a Neverwinter Nights 3, which won't anyone deliver it to them? I just don't understand!
TYRS PALADIUM - A Premier Neverwinter Online Guild
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EDIT please also -75% the cost of changing appearance of stuff! xD. 50k to make my new ugly l70 artifact orb look like the nice blue orb with gold and red lines/flowers is too much.
If you flip a coin 100 times whats the odds it will come up heads out of that 100? 49.9999%, same odds for tails. Why 49.9999%? Because very, very rarely it COULD land on neither heads/tails and land on edge (a coin is 3D don't you know, it has 3 surfaces!)
So if you flipped that coin 99 times and despite the law of averages it came up heads those 99 times, whats the odds it comes up tails that 100th flip? Still 49.9999%, what happened before does not effect what happened the 100th time.
So people that complain that it took them X amount of times with a 20% odds or 10%, no matter how many times they try, it don't matter, what happened the 10th time or the 50th time has no bearing, it's all within the realm of statistical averages.
With that being said, yes there are many games (this one too) that have had bogus RGN. Cryptic being "cryptic" don't open their source data, so nobody gets to test independent of their claims that it is indeed actually statistcly sound.
zhentarim-warlock-companion
Pure -> Transcendent Plague Fire weapon enchantment giving 80damge/20 seconds for 500k+ AD is a joke.
plague-fire-weapon-enchant-r11-vs-r12
Personally I think since:
AD in Gateway have been eliminated,
AD in most of Leadership has been eliminated,
AD in Daily Dungeons have been eliminated,
AD in hourly Skirmishes have been all but eliminated (what used to take ah hour now takes an entire day),
it would be nice to see some random AD drops appear in opened chests (dungoneering, religious, arcane, nature, thievery or just regular chests on quest maps) or drop from opponents as scrolls, coins and equipment currently does.
In my opinion this would give people much more incentive to actually play Neverwinter instead of trying to figure out a way to make astral diamonds in lieu of actually playing.
The more time a person puts into doing quests, individually or in groups the more astral diamonds an player has the potential of accumulating.
Being able to obtain seals is good, but there is only so much a player can purchase with seals and after obtaining a full set of armor, weapons or what ever, there is little incentive to do the quests for seals, except to obtain otherwise unusable, duplicate pieces of armor and weapons to salvage for astral diamonds.
My opinion.
However I will also sand by my assertions that this change needed to happen regardless of how long it took. It would have been better if it was done two years ago but it is better done today than next year.
I can't fault you for reading one post and making a response but it really was an incorrect assumption on my opinion which a few seconds of time could have dispelled.
There're a lot of good ideas posted here or in the other thread about the AD changes, and i'm still waiting for some official feedback on it.
When the bot sells the AD to another player, they have to do it via the AH and 10% of its value is taxed and removed from the economy. So the bots makes a profit by providing a service to the players and doesn't negatively affect the economy. Nothing wrong with that.
If RP-farming bots are distorting the economy, it benefits the players by allowing them to buy cheap RP. I'm surprised there are still so many bot-bashing Luddites out there that does not understand this.
Cryptic had to have known for a while that there was a problem, after all you and others, had addressed this fact shortly after the game first came out. I have often commented on it in the past, to something to the effect of limiting the number of Alts that could craft, and I have previously (Prior to the removal of Leaderships ability to earn AD) made suggestions on ways to improve Crafting, so that they are co-dependents, and the ones that award the best Gear and AD, would require inputs from other crafts.
Sorry if my post seemed to be against yours in any way. That was not the intent.
AKA Cyber Troll and Euben Hadd
Leadership is essential for anyone who can't put 2.5-3 hours into the game in 1 day (you know the people with jobs, who therefor have money to spend, but won't/will leave if they feel like the game doesn't let them keep up.)
A suggestion - have an "overflow" type bag exclusively for character bound items. Account bound and unbound I can deal with but this character bound stuff is just cluttering up my very expensive bag space until a double RP day or I simply can't fit them any more...
The chance of your next refinement attempt succeeding or failing is always that 10%. But, before you start, the chance that you'll fail 30 times in a row, for instance, is only 4.23%. It can certainly happen. But if it happens twice in a row-meaning, two refinements each requiring 30 attempts-then the joint probability of that occuring is much lower.
tl;dr, don't confuse all discussions of probability with gamblers fallacy. Gamblers fallacy is only when you assert that the probability going forwards is affected by past attempts. Analyzing the probability of a set of randomized events having taken the shape that they did going in is not a fallacy.
Anyone that has GMOP's in the bank has been screwed with a massive loss in value of their assets just from the announcement being made ...
Traxus Atheanes GF
Bastiel Atheanes DC
Ellara Atheanes CW
Keira Atheanes TR
Sarasin Atheanes SW
Jerkface McGee HR
-MANTARA- OP
The devs certainly seem to believe in making huge Blitzkrieg changes rather than small incremental tweaks hehe.