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The AD/Zen Exchange

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  • mystagoguemystagogue Member Posts: 322 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    It obviously won't. First, people who were buying things on AH, would have to buy zen with AD. You think you've seen backlog skyrocketing already? It would be much worse.
    And ofc the company would sell much less keys, which must be quite a big chunk of their income judging from all that "player X obtained mount Y from Z lockbox". Which is also why I do not shiver in fear they'd make all BoP.

    No you wouldn't. The backlog would be reduced because people that are now buying Zen items to relist in the AH would have to purchase through the exchange instead. So no, it would make it much better, not worse.

    Again, we're not talking lock box items - only items purchased from the store.
  • l0th4ri0l0th4ri0 Member Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    It obviously won't. First, people who were buying things on AH, would have to buy zen with AD. You think you've seen backlog skyrocketing already? It would be much worse.
    And ofc the company would sell much less keys, which must be quite a big chunk of their income judging from all that "player X obtained mount Y from Z lockbox". Which is also why I do not shiver in fear they'd make all BoP.

    Let's not forget that the demand is finite. Making zen items BOA has the dual effect of pushing people to the ZAX AND also makes them use the ZAX to get AD instead of bypassing it in favor of selling items on the AH. The AD barons are cut out of the equation and can no longer game the system this way. So it eliminates a pressure on the market for inflation that bypasses the cap.

    You know this already... we were talking about this a few pages back! LOL

    In effect, if the barons wanted to keep operating, they would be forced to buy keys with their ill-gotten AD fleeced from the less-advantaged playerbase, and then they would have to gamble on lockboxes to possibly get something they could list on the AH to keep working the loop. They would be at the mercy of Cryptic's RNG! LOL There's a comforting thought. :)
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    mystagogue wrote: »
    No you wouldn't. The backlog would be reduced because people that are now buying Zen items to relist in the AH would have to purchase through the exchange instead. So no, it would make it much better, not worse.

    Again, we're not talking lock box items - only items purchased from the store.

    Really, use your imagination (and then add some realism.) They won't use zax because it is much less profitable than what they are doing now. Ok, some of them will, but a significant part won't bother. Which means with the same demand we'll have reduced supply. Also, there will be much less incentive to buy AD because there will be not much left to buy from AH.
  • mystagoguemystagogue Member Posts: 322 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    Really, use your imagination (and then add some realism.) They won't use zax because it is much less profitable than what they are doing now. Ok, some of them will, but a significant part won't bother. Which means with the same demand we'll have reduced supply. Also, there will be much less incentive to buy AD because there will be not much left to buy from AH.

    Explain this better please - "there will be much less incentive to buy AD because there will be not much left to buy from the AH".

    The only thing removed from the AH would be the Zen store items. That's it. Period. The same Zen store items that are listed on the AH at inflated prices. People that are using the Zen store to buy AD will still be buying AD. They're not buying AD to get Zen store items.

    Since Zen store items won't be on the AH, where will players get them? In the Zen store. Using Zen. From the ZAX. Which will now be flowing at a much more steady place. Because Zen will be flowing through it at a regulated pace.
  • angryspriteangrysprite Member Posts: 4,982 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    New Sgt Knox Companion auction should help the ZAX backlog a bit because I can see the Super Whales buying Zen to sell for Astral Diamonds so they cab make what they hope are winning bids.

    Thumbs-up to the idea.
  • mystagoguemystagogue Member Posts: 322 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    New Sgt Knox Companion auction should help the ZAX backlog a bit because I can see the Super Whales buying Zen to sell for Astral Diamonds so they cab make what they hope are winning bids.

    Thumbs-up to the idea.

    I agree, it's a great idea. Would have been better (IMO) if it had been 20. I think they could have gotten the same insane amount per Companion, even at a slightly higher number.

    But yes, this is a nice move to get at least a small chunk of change out of the economy.
  • l0th4ri0l0th4ri0 Member Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    New Sgt Knox Companion auction should help the ZAX backlog a bit because I can see the Super Whales buying Zen to sell for Astral Diamonds so they cab make what they hope are winning bids.

    Thumbs-up to the idea.

    The current backlog is holding steady at 5 billion AD. I'm certainly in favor of anything that takes a chunk out of this. :)

    PS to see what the current backlog looks like:
    http://nwzen.biz/

    Scroll down to the bottom to get a graphical look at the ZAX backlog vs. time. Set the graph to look at "months" to really get a sense of what has happened to the economy.
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    mystagogue wrote: »
    Explain this better please - "there will be much less incentive to buy AD because there will be not much left to buy from the AH".
    Ah, my bad. I blame the lack of sleep.

    Anyway, people who sell zen items on AH do not create, or even increase backlog. Why? Because people who buy zen items on AH, do not buy zen from zax. Now if you bind things, all that demand from AH will go to zax. But not all supply will move from AH to zax. You see, many people are are selling on AH only because it is so profitable at the moment. With zax they can make so much less, therefore the incentive to bother at all is smaller. Plus, AH trade flushes 10% of AD away, without it we have more AD supply, guess what that would cause.

    Meanwhile, the backlog dropped under 10m. Gee, how is that possible with all that evil flippers doing their dirty bussiness...
  • mystagoguemystagogue Member Posts: 322 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    You're putting words in my posts now. I went out of my way to say that flippers aren't evil or exploiters - don't let your defensiveness get the best of you!

    "Many people are so profitable" - but by your reasoning, it's profitable for nothing. You are arguing in circles.

    My take stands though. Bypassing the ZAX to loophole the 500/1 cap is not good for the long term health of the game.
  • harkurharkur Member Posts: 305 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    mystagogue wrote: »
    Bypassing the ZAX to loophole the 500/1 cap is not good for the long term health of the game.


    Neither is the 500:1 cap. :)
  • mystagoguemystagogue Member Posts: 322 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    harkur wrote: »
    Neither is the 500:1 cap. :)


    That's another ball of wax altogether. That said, it's the reality we live in. And as long as the ZAX is predicated on it - well, it is what it is...
  • l0th4ri0l0th4ri0 Member Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    Meanwhile, the backlog dropped under 10m. Gee, how is that possible with all that evil flippers doing their dirty bussiness...

    First of all, it dropped under 10m Zen for like 2 hours and went back up to hold steady at 10 ever since. This is since yesterday -- not really a good time window to judge anything by, TBH.

    Also, the fact that the backlog is ONLY an <insert amount> is completely unacceptable. This is what I think a lot of you either currently fail to understand, or have a vested interest in preventing: There's not supposed to be ANY backlog! The 500:1 cap is a CAP, not an ideal exchange rate! It's supposed to be lower than 500:1!

    And it used to be! The ZAX used to work... it worked really well for what it was supposed to do. You had your pick of how much zen you wanted for your AD and the market rate was healthy and fluctuating -- not locked at any kind of cap!

    We have been surfing the disaster area of the ZAX at the 500 cap for a long time now... it needs to stop.
  • chrcorechrcore Member Posts: 329 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    mystagogue wrote: »
    Exactly. Buy stuff you need from the Zen store. You and your account - BoA, BoP whatever - semantics. Turn a profit from Lockboxes loot, dungeon runs - whatever - fun on the AH. If you want to immediately turn cash into AD legitimately - use the ZAX. Period. Problem is, that's a sucker's bet right now (unless you want the sparkly right this very second) when you can patiently flip Zen store items for more AD than the 500/1 capped limit on the exchange.

    Understand, I'm not naming this a cheat or folks doing this exploiters. Right now it's an open loophole that folks with half a clue and a bit of patience are using. I do believe that for the long term best interest of the game this loophole should be closed.

    Just my 2 AD.

    You guys just don't get it. If they made the Zen stuff all BoA or BoP it will reduce their sales. Why on earth would they want to reduce their sales.
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    mystagogue wrote: »
    You're putting words in my posts now. I went out of my way to say that flippers aren't evil or exploiters - don't let your defensiveness get the best of you!

    "Many people are so profitable" - but by your reasoning, it's profitable for nothing. You are arguing in circles.

    My take stands though. Bypassing the ZAX to loophole the 500/1 cap is not good for the long term health of the game.

    The "evil flippers" remark was rather for all people demonizing them, not for you in particular, tho you kinda contradict yourself saying they are not evil, but then stating you find what they do harmful for the game.

    What do you mean it's profitable for nothing? I never said anything like that. People still need AD for other things than buying zen or zen items with it, even if you don't need that much. But there are other ways to get AD, only that this one particular we are talking about is unusually effective at the moment.

    Zen sellers do not "need" to trade zen in any form for AD, they can earn it by playing, and they will do so if they don't find the exchange sufficiently convenient/effective.

    There is nothing wrong with selling "overpriced" goods on AH. Don't get me wrong, I do not doubt that the current situation is bad, I just don't belive that "flipping" is harmful, quite the opposite actually.
  • chrcorechrcore Member Posts: 329 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    l0th4ri0 wrote: »
    First of all, it dropped under 10m Zen for like 2 hours and went back up to hold steady at 10 ever since. This is since yesterday -- not really a good time window to judge anything by, TBH.

    Also, the fact that the backlog is ONLY an <insert amount> is completely unacceptable. This is what I think a lot of you either currently fail to understand, or have a vested interest in preventing: There's not supposed to be ANY backlog! The 500:1 cap is a CAP, not an ideal exchange rate! It's supposed to be lower than 500:1!

    And it used to be! The ZAX used to work... it worked really well for what it was supposed to do. You had your pick of how much zen you wanted for your AD and the market rate was healthy and fluctuating -- not locked at any kind of cap!

    We have been surfing the disaster area of the ZAX at the 500 cap for a long time now... it needs to stop.

    and it will be just fine in another month. Now that folks can't pull AD out of thin air you will see the backlog disappear and eventually the rate will drop below 500:1 and the time of the backlog will be a forgotten blip.
  • harkurharkur Member Posts: 305 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    chrcore wrote: »
    and it will be just fine in another month. Now that folks can't pull AD out of thin air you will see the backlog disappear and eventually the rate will drop below 500:1 and the time of the backlog will be a forgotten blip.

    Right, and suddenly this will be the first MMO in the history of the genre not to have ingame currency inflation driven by old characters twinking alts. And that reversal of game finance history will mean that suddenly not only is $20 for a million AD a good idea...but people will think that's not enough money to spend on a million AD and will bid it up even higher!

    I'm sorry, I have to go. I just noticed that I left my Unicorn double parked and I left it idling, I can tell because little rainbows are puffing out its tailpipe.
  • chrcorechrcore Member Posts: 329 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    harkur wrote: »
    Right, and suddenly this will be the first MMO in the history of the genre not to have ingame currency inflation driven by old characters twinking alts. And that reversal of game finance history will mean that suddenly not only is $20 for a million AD a good idea...but people will think that's not enough money to spend on a million AD and will bid it up even higher!

    I'm sorry, I have to go. I just noticed that I left my Unicorn double parked and I left it idling, I can tell because little rainbows are puffing out its tailpipe.

    Care to make a wager on it?
  • harkurharkur Member Posts: 305 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    chrcore wrote: »
    Care to make a wager on it?


    I'll be happy to. Now, let's find someone I remotely trust and we'll both hand him something worth, oh I don't know, 5,000 Zen to hold. If, on October 3rd, the backlog's fully gone...meaning instant exchanges...and zen is being sold under 500 AD in those instant sales then you win. If it's not, I do.

    Take your time, I'll wait.
  • l0th4ri0l0th4ri0 Member Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    I am also slightly skeptical that enough has already been done to set things right. I think that the devs will have to do a little bit more, but perhaps that is more out of cynicism than having any real data. If you look at the actual numbers, there has been a very slight downward trend to the backlog since mid August. Whther this is from everything falling into place or from a disheartened playerbase who has given up -- well, I couldn't say. Perhaps both, for all I know.
  • charononuscharononus Member Posts: 5,715 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    chrcore wrote: »
    and it will be just fine in another month. Now that folks can't pull AD out of thin air you will see the backlog disappear and eventually the rate will drop below 500:1 and the time of the backlog will be a forgotten blip.

    Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.
  • l0th4ri0l0th4ri0 Member Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    charononus wrote: »
    Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.

    This is kinda where I'm at, too.

    I know some of you are trying to play off the scammers/flippers/whatever as being either benevolent (LOL really?), harmless, or otherwise not a factor in this mess, but that ZAX loop works. If you have a large stockpile of AD it takes nothing but a little time to turn it into a bigger and bigger stockpile of AD at the expense of people who are not evading the ZAX like you are. For all any of you know, I may be one of the worst offenders, and my guilt has driven me to come clean on the forums. :)

    I'm not, but how could you know for sure?

    Regardless, I think it may be "counting our chickens" so to speak to claim that this thing is tamed. The AD barons are real. Not all of them are super-dedicated to bringing down the system, but they are possessed of a hearty self-interest that results in the rest of us having a crappier time. Are these barons above manipulating the backlog to further their own ends? I guess we'll see if this backlog goes away or not without further measures taken by the devs.
  • geeq5geeq5 Member Posts: 223 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    charononus wrote: »
    Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.

    What do you mean by wont happen? Do you mean the backlog wont disappear?
  • harkurharkur Member Posts: 305 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    l0th4ri0 wrote: »
    This is kinda where I'm at, too.

    I know some of you are trying to play off the scammers/flippers/whatever as being either benevolent (LOL really?), harmless, or otherwise not a factor in this mess, but that ZAX loop works. If you have a large stockpile of AD it takes nothing but a little time to turn it into a bigger and bigger stockpile of AD at the expense of people who are not evading the ZAX like you are. For all any of you know, I may be one of the worst offenders, and my guilt has driven me to come clean on the forums. :)

    I'm not, but how could you know for sure?

    Regardless, I think it may be "counting our chickens" so to speak to claim that this thing is tamed. The AD barons are real. Not all of them are super-dedicated to bringing down the system, but they are possessed of a hearty self-interest that results in the rest of us having a crappier time. Are these barons above manipulating the backlog to further their own ends? I guess we'll see if this backlog goes away or not without further measures taken by the devs.


    Evading? You need to stop trying to make it sound like people are doing something shady.

    The problem is not going to go away as long as the exchange rate is locked but inflation...which is going to happen and is a normal thing in any economy where currency magically appears out of thin air...continues in game. All a locked exchange does is guarantee that the people who actually pay for the game...the ones with dollars being spent...get less and less for their money and the free to play players get more and more for less and less.

    It's not complicated; the longer the game goes on, the more AD exists within it...without any exploiting at all, whatsoever...just due to playing the game and getting AD rewards. That means, to make it as simple as I know how, inflation will happen. AH prices will go up. While they are going up, and there is more and more AD in the game, people spending real money to buy and convert Zen still get the same amount of AD for their money. That means their purchasing power continues to decline.

    None of that is speculation. It's fact. Inflation exists, and must exist, in economies with currency coming into existence out of nowhere. Call them Printing Press economies for lack of a better term. More always comes in and without draconian taxes and mandatory/abusive sinks inflation's a fact of gaming life. I challenge you to point out MMO Printing Press currencies that have not inflated. Go ahead, I'll wait.

    And at some point enough of the people who pay for the free-to-play people will decide it's too damned expensive to keep doing to have a permanent negative impact on PWE's bottom line. Then the free-to-play players will move on because the game won't be here.
  • charononuscharononus Member Posts: 5,715 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    geeq5 wrote: »
    What do you mean by wont happen? Do you mean the backlog wont disappear?

    Yup. I will be shocked if the botters, flippers, and ah tycoons allow it to disappear. They make too much ad with it existing.
  • chrcorechrcore Member Posts: 329 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    harkur wrote: »
    I'll be happy to. Now, let's find someone I remotely trust and we'll both hand him something worth, oh I don't know, 5,000 Zen to hold. If, on October 3rd, the backlog's fully gone...meaning instant exchanges...and zen is being sold under 500 AD in those instant sales then you win. If it's not, I do.

    Take your time, I'll wait.

    No way did I say it will it be gone on Oct 3, but it will be much lower than now. Your obnoxious remark about unicorns and fairies and all implied it will NEVER go away. It's down from 14M to under 10M in 1 month. It will go below 500:1 but not by Oct 3.
  • harkurharkur Member Posts: 305 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    chrcore wrote: »
    No way did I say it will it be gone on Oct 3, but it will be much lower than now. Your obnoxious remark about unicorns and fairies and all implied it will NEVER go away. It's down from 14M to under 10M in 1 month. It will go below 500:1 but not by Oct 3.


    What part of "and it will be just fine in another month" did I misunderstand? Too afraid of losing a piddly 5,000 zen to stick to that? Then pick a date, you're the one who asked me if I want to bet. Well, I want to bet. Terms?

    Also, what is it you find offensive about unicorns?

    Also, I never mentioned fairies.
  • chrcorechrcore Member Posts: 329 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    charononus wrote: »
    Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.

    The thing you aren't taking into account though is that there is a ton of churn in the player base and as folks get bored of Mod 4, they just don't bother flipping anymore. Likewise, some of the exploited AD rots away on no longer played accounts. Lately it's been cheaper to buy enchants on the AH than make them yourself. It won't be 1 month, it probably won't be 2 months, but I do believe the backlog will go away.

    Less than 5% of my friends list logs in anymore......
  • chrcorechrcore Member Posts: 329 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    harkur wrote: »
    What part of "and it will be just fine in another month" did I misunderstand? Too afraid of losing a piddly 5,000 zen to stick to that? Then pick a date, you're the one who asked me if I want to bet. Well, I want to bet. Terms?

    That implies a return to normalcy in a month. 14M was bad. Under 10M is looking a lot better. In 1 month it should be closer to 6M. Moving in that direction implies "fine" to me and no need to start ringing all the alarms and asking for everything to become BoA and praying to the fairy unicorn under your bed for more Zen.
  • harkurharkur Member Posts: 305 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    chrcore wrote: »
    That implies a return to normalcy in a month. 14M was bad. Under 10M is looking a lot better. In 1 month it should be closer to 6M. Moving in that direction implies "fine" to me and no need to start ringing all the alarms and asking for everything to become BoA.

    In other words, the bar you've set is "something better". That's pretty vague. That's also not remotely "everything will be just fine in another month" unless by just fine you mean slightly improved but some number lower than 10 million so you can say "see, it's fine!".

    And yes, I implied that this economy magically fixing itself is the stuff of fairy tales. Because it is. Because inflation exists in all MMOs where currency comes into being on its own every day. And because only one of the currencies is being allowed to inflate. And because since that's the case, the value of Zen (i.e. the value of real $) when measured by the purchasing power it has when converted to AD to buy AH items is, and will continue to be, in a constant decline.

    By what date will Zen by selling under 500 AD?
  • l0th4ri0l0th4ri0 Member Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    harkur wrote: »
    Evading? You need to stop trying to make it sound like people are doing something shady.

    The problem is not going to go away as long as the exchange rate is locked but inflation...which is going to happen and is a normal thing in any economy where currency magically appears out of thin air...continues in game. All a locked exchange does is guarantee that the people who actually pay for the game...the ones with dollars being spent...get less and less for their money and the free to play players get more and more for less and less.

    It's not complicated; the longer the game goes on, the more AD exists within it...without any exploiting at all, whatsoever...just due to playing the game and getting AD rewards. That means, to make it as simple as I know how, inflation will happen. AH prices will go up. While they are going up, and there is more and more AD in the game, people spending real money to buy and convert Zen still get the same amount of AD for their money. That means their purchasing power continues to decline.

    None of that is speculation. It's fact. Inflation exists, and must exist, in economies with currency coming into existence out of nowhere. Call them Printing Press economies for lack of a better term. More always comes in and without draconian taxes and mandatory/abusive sinks inflation's a fact of gaming life. I challenge you to point out MMO Printing Press currencies that have not inflated. Go ahead, I'll wait.

    And at some point enough of the people who pay for the free-to-play people will decide it's too damned expensive to keep doing to have a permanent negative impact on PWE's bottom line. Then the free-to-play players will move on because the game won't be here.

    The only other MMO I've played with any kind of large playerbase was SWTOR, and that economy most certainly did NOT suffer from runaway inflation. But this is kinda like apples and oranges, because SWTOR had a subscriber base and no such thing as the ZAX, and a couple of other major mechanics differences from NWO.

    And if we take it one step further in the analysis, you can't really point to any other MMO as an example for this game, because NWO is unique. Saying that rampant inflation in NWO is inevitable because of what happens in WOW or some other title is not a valid statement. This game economy is not going to be typical.

    And as far as using the words "evade", "exploit", "scammers", etc.: sorry if that hits close to home for you (if indeed it does). I am not trying to insult anyone, I am trying to paint the picture of what is obvious to anyone without a dog in this fight: the ZAX loop is not helping.

    When it is better to EVADE the exchange in order to BYPASS the 500:1 cap in order to make more AD for your Zen at the AH, and you purposefully do this to make a profit, it looks a lot like an EXPLOIT. A few pages back, I referred to anyone who still uses the ZAX to get AD for Zen as "rubes". As in the "you don't realize that you are getting taken advantage of" kind of "rubes".

    Please note that I am not claiming that loopers are cheating with 3rd party software, or even violating the TOS (kinda a gray area, but whatever). The devs have left the loophole open, and I am one of the ones who thinks it should get closed. It should not be mechanically possible to relentlessly and consistently turn a profit by skipping past purposefully designed caps in the ZAX. That is a design flaw, IMO. That is not a player cheating so much as taking obvious advantage of a developer oversight.
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