and it will be just fine in another month. Now that folks can't pull AD out of thin air you will see the backlog disappear and eventually the rate will drop below 500:1 and the time of the backlog will be a forgotten blip.
Right, and suddenly this will be the first MMO in the history of the genre not to have ingame currency inflation driven by old characters twinking alts. And that reversal of game finance history will mean that suddenly not only is $20 for a million AD a good idea...but people will think that's not enough money to spend on a million AD and will bid it up even higher!
I'm sorry, I have to go. I just noticed that I left my Unicorn double parked and I left it idling, I can tell because little rainbows are puffing out its tailpipe.
Right, and suddenly this will be the first MMO in the history of the genre not to have ingame currency inflation driven by old characters twinking alts. And that reversal of game finance history will mean that suddenly not only is $20 for a million AD a good idea...but people will think that's not enough money to spend on a million AD and will bid it up even higher!
I'm sorry, I have to go. I just noticed that I left my Unicorn double parked and I left it idling, I can tell because little rainbows are puffing out its tailpipe.
I'll be happy to. Now, let's find someone I remotely trust and we'll both hand him something worth, oh I don't know, 5,000 Zen to hold. If, on October 3rd, the backlog's fully gone...meaning instant exchanges...and zen is being sold under 500 AD in those instant sales then you win. If it's not, I do.
I am also slightly skeptical that enough has already been done to set things right. I think that the devs will have to do a little bit more, but perhaps that is more out of cynicism than having any real data. If you look at the actual numbers, there has been a very slight downward trend to the backlog since mid August. Whther this is from everything falling into place or from a disheartened playerbase who has given up -- well, I couldn't say. Perhaps both, for all I know.
and it will be just fine in another month. Now that folks can't pull AD out of thin air you will see the backlog disappear and eventually the rate will drop below 500:1 and the time of the backlog will be a forgotten blip.
Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.
Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.
This is kinda where I'm at, too.
I know some of you are trying to play off the scammers/flippers/whatever as being either benevolent (LOL really?), harmless, or otherwise not a factor in this mess, but that ZAX loop works. If you have a large stockpile of AD it takes nothing but a little time to turn it into a bigger and bigger stockpile of AD at the expense of people who are not evading the ZAX like you are. For all any of you know, I may be one of the worst offenders, and my guilt has driven me to come clean on the forums.
I'm not, but how could you know for sure?
Regardless, I think it may be "counting our chickens" so to speak to claim that this thing is tamed. The AD barons are real. Not all of them are super-dedicated to bringing down the system, but they are possessed of a hearty self-interest that results in the rest of us having a crappier time. Are these barons above manipulating the backlog to further their own ends? I guess we'll see if this backlog goes away or not without further measures taken by the devs.
Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.
What do you mean by wont happen? Do you mean the backlog wont disappear?
I know some of you are trying to play off the scammers/flippers/whatever as being either benevolent (LOL really?), harmless, or otherwise not a factor in this mess, but that ZAX loop works. If you have a large stockpile of AD it takes nothing but a little time to turn it into a bigger and bigger stockpile of AD at the expense of people who are not evading the ZAX like you are. For all any of you know, I may be one of the worst offenders, and my guilt has driven me to come clean on the forums.
I'm not, but how could you know for sure?
Regardless, I think it may be "counting our chickens" so to speak to claim that this thing is tamed. The AD barons are real. Not all of them are super-dedicated to bringing down the system, but they are possessed of a hearty self-interest that results in the rest of us having a crappier time. Are these barons above manipulating the backlog to further their own ends? I guess we'll see if this backlog goes away or not without further measures taken by the devs.
Evading? You need to stop trying to make it sound like people are doing something shady.
The problem is not going to go away as long as the exchange rate is locked but inflation...which is going to happen and is a normal thing in any economy where currency magically appears out of thin air...continues in game. All a locked exchange does is guarantee that the people who actually pay for the game...the ones with dollars being spent...get less and less for their money and the free to play players get more and more for less and less.
It's not complicated; the longer the game goes on, the more AD exists within it...without any exploiting at all, whatsoever...just due to playing the game and getting AD rewards. That means, to make it as simple as I know how, inflation will happen. AH prices will go up. While they are going up, and there is more and more AD in the game, people spending real money to buy and convert Zen still get the same amount of AD for their money. That means their purchasing power continues to decline.
None of that is speculation. It's fact. Inflation exists, and must exist, in economies with currency coming into existence out of nowhere. Call them Printing Press economies for lack of a better term. More always comes in and without draconian taxes and mandatory/abusive sinks inflation's a fact of gaming life. I challenge you to point out MMO Printing Press currencies that have not inflated. Go ahead, I'll wait.
And at some point enough of the people who pay for the free-to-play people will decide it's too damned expensive to keep doing to have a permanent negative impact on PWE's bottom line. Then the free-to-play players will move on because the game won't be here.
I'll be happy to. Now, let's find someone I remotely trust and we'll both hand him something worth, oh I don't know, 5,000 Zen to hold. If, on October 3rd, the backlog's fully gone...meaning instant exchanges...and zen is being sold under 500 AD in those instant sales then you win. If it's not, I do.
Take your time, I'll wait.
No way did I say it will it be gone on Oct 3, but it will be much lower than now. Your obnoxious remark about unicorns and fairies and all implied it will NEVER go away. It's down from 14M to under 10M in 1 month. It will go below 500:1 but not by Oct 3.
No way did I say it will it be gone on Oct 3, but it will be much lower than now. Your obnoxious remark about unicorns and fairies and all implied it will NEVER go away. It's down from 14M to under 10M in 1 month. It will go below 500:1 but not by Oct 3.
What part of "and it will be just fine in another month" did I misunderstand? Too afraid of losing a piddly 5,000 zen to stick to that? Then pick a date, you're the one who asked me if I want to bet. Well, I want to bet. Terms?
Also, what is it you find offensive about unicorns?
Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.
The thing you aren't taking into account though is that there is a ton of churn in the player base and as folks get bored of Mod 4, they just don't bother flipping anymore. Likewise, some of the exploited AD rots away on no longer played accounts. Lately it's been cheaper to buy enchants on the AH than make them yourself. It won't be 1 month, it probably won't be 2 months, but I do believe the backlog will go away.
Less than 5% of my friends list logs in anymore......
What part of "and it will be just fine in another month" did I misunderstand? Too afraid of losing a piddly 5,000 zen to stick to that? Then pick a date, you're the one who asked me if I want to bet. Well, I want to bet. Terms?
That implies a return to normalcy in a month. 14M was bad. Under 10M is looking a lot better. In 1 month it should be closer to 6M. Moving in that direction implies "fine" to me and no need to start ringing all the alarms and asking for everything to become BoA and praying to the fairy unicorn under your bed for more Zen.
That implies a return to normalcy in a month. 14M was bad. Under 10M is looking a lot better. In 1 month it should be closer to 6M. Moving in that direction implies "fine" to me and no need to start ringing all the alarms and asking for everything to become BoA.
In other words, the bar you've set is "something better". That's pretty vague. That's also not remotely "everything will be just fine in another month" unless by just fine you mean slightly improved but some number lower than 10 million so you can say "see, it's fine!".
And yes, I implied that this economy magically fixing itself is the stuff of fairy tales. Because it is. Because inflation exists in all MMOs where currency comes into being on its own every day. And because only one of the currencies is being allowed to inflate. And because since that's the case, the value of Zen (i.e. the value of real $) when measured by the purchasing power it has when converted to AD to buy AH items is, and will continue to be, in a constant decline.
Evading? You need to stop trying to make it sound like people are doing something shady.
The problem is not going to go away as long as the exchange rate is locked but inflation...which is going to happen and is a normal thing in any economy where currency magically appears out of thin air...continues in game. All a locked exchange does is guarantee that the people who actually pay for the game...the ones with dollars being spent...get less and less for their money and the free to play players get more and more for less and less.
It's not complicated; the longer the game goes on, the more AD exists within it...without any exploiting at all, whatsoever...just due to playing the game and getting AD rewards. That means, to make it as simple as I know how, inflation will happen. AH prices will go up. While they are going up, and there is more and more AD in the game, people spending real money to buy and convert Zen still get the same amount of AD for their money. That means their purchasing power continues to decline.
None of that is speculation. It's fact. Inflation exists, and must exist, in economies with currency coming into existence out of nowhere. Call them Printing Press economies for lack of a better term. More always comes in and without draconian taxes and mandatory/abusive sinks inflation's a fact of gaming life. I challenge you to point out MMO Printing Press currencies that have not inflated. Go ahead, I'll wait.
And at some point enough of the people who pay for the free-to-play people will decide it's too damned expensive to keep doing to have a permanent negative impact on PWE's bottom line. Then the free-to-play players will move on because the game won't be here.
The only other MMO I've played with any kind of large playerbase was SWTOR, and that economy most certainly did NOT suffer from runaway inflation. But this is kinda like apples and oranges, because SWTOR had a subscriber base and no such thing as the ZAX, and a couple of other major mechanics differences from NWO.
And if we take it one step further in the analysis, you can't really point to any other MMO as an example for this game, because NWO is unique. Saying that rampant inflation in NWO is inevitable because of what happens in WOW or some other title is not a valid statement. This game economy is not going to be typical.
And as far as using the words "evade", "exploit", "scammers", etc.: sorry if that hits close to home for you (if indeed it does). I am not trying to insult anyone, I am trying to paint the picture of what is obvious to anyone without a dog in this fight: the ZAX loop is not helping.
When it is better to EVADE the exchange in order to BYPASS the 500:1 cap in order to make more AD for your Zen at the AH, and you purposefully do this to make a profit, it looks a lot like an EXPLOIT. A few pages back, I referred to anyone who still uses the ZAX to get AD for Zen as "rubes". As in the "you don't realize that you are getting taken advantage of" kind of "rubes".
Please note that I am not claiming that loopers are cheating with 3rd party software, or even violating the TOS (kinda a gray area, but whatever). The devs have left the loophole open, and I am one of the ones who thinks it should get closed. It should not be mechanically possible to relentlessly and consistently turn a profit by skipping past purposefully designed caps in the ZAX. That is a design flaw, IMO. That is not a player cheating so much as taking obvious advantage of a developer oversight.
In other words, the bar you've set is "something better". That's pretty vague. That's also not remotely "everything will be just fine in another month" unless by just fine you mean slightly improved but some number lower than 10 million so you can say "see, it's fine!".
And yes, I implied that this economy magically fixing itself is the stuff of fairy tales. Because it is. Because inflation exists in all MMOs where currency comes into being on its own every day. And because only one of the currencies is being allowed to inflate. And because since that's the case, the value of Zen (i.e. the value of real $) when measured by the purchasing power it has when converted to AD to buy AH items is, and will continue to be, in a constant decline.
By what date will Zen by selling under 500 AD?
STO's version of the ZAX pretty much proves you wrong. Same system, no backlog not pegged at the cap. It doesn't have to be broken. It's people defending inflation that are the problem.
In other words, the bar you've set is "something better". That's pretty vague. That's also not remotely "everything will be just fine in another month" unless by just fine you mean slightly improved but some number lower than 10 million so you can say "see, it's fine!".
And yes, I implied that this economy magically fixing itself is the stuff of fairy tales. Because it is. Because inflation exists in all MMOs where currency comes into being on its own every day. And because only one of the currencies is being allowed to inflate. And because since that's the case, the value of Zen (i.e. the value of real $) when measured by the purchasing power it has when converted to AD to buy AH items is, and will continue to be, in a constant decline.
By what date will Zen by selling under 500 AD?
I'm not a seer so obviously I can't give an exact date, but the drop of over 4M looks very promising to me. There is nothing "magical" about it. When folks can pull AD out of thin air (Caturday, Astralday) it creates problems. Fortunately these problems tend to fix themselves over time because unlike a real economy people quit playing and their assets ROT. Otherwise you would still have tons and tons of cats on sale on the AH for practically nothing (caturday). Likewise you no longer see enchants selling at crazy prices because the folks that were buying them all up aren't getting them for free anymore.
The only other MMO I've played with any kind of large playerbase was SWTOR, and that economy most certainly did NOT suffer from runaway inflation. But this is kinda like apples and oranges, because SWTOR had a subscriber base and no such thing as the ZAX, and a couple of other major mechanics differences from NWO.
And if we take it one step further in the analysis, you can't really point to any other MMO as an example for this game, because NWO is unique. Saying that rampant inflation in NWO is inevitable because of what happens in WOW or some other title is not a valid statement. This game economy is not going to be typical.
And as far as using the words "evade", "exploit", "scammers", etc.: sorry if that hits close to home for you (if indeed it does). I am not trying to insult anyone, I am trying to paint the picture of what is obvious to anyone without a dog in this fight: the ZAX loop is not helping.
When it is better to EVADE the exchange in order to BYPASS the 500:1 cap in order to make more AD for your Zen at the AH, and you purposefully do this to make a profit, it looks a lot like an EXPLOIT. A few pages back, I referred to anyone who still uses the ZAX to get AD for Zen as "rubes". As in the "you don't realize that you are getting taken advantage of" kind of "rubes".
Please note that I am not claiming that loopers are cheating with 3rd party software, or even violating the TOS (kinda a gray area, but whatever). The devs have left the loophole open, and I am one of the ones who thinks it should get closed. It should not be mechanically possible to relentlessly and consistently turn a profit by skipping past purposefully designed caps in the ZAX. That is a design flaw, IMO. That is not a player cheating so much as taking obvious advantage of an developer oversight.
Alright, try it this way:
I have played SWTOR, saying there is no inflation in that currency is a flat out misrepresentation of fact...and that's putting it about as nicely as I possibly can.
The fact that NWO is not another MMO in no ways means what happens in them is not relevant here. NWO is not some special little snowflake of an MMO in that its economy will not respond as others do. That's ridiculous. Explain how NWOs economic model is somehow different from other MMO economies where wealth enters the game out of nowhere. There will always be more AD tomorrow than there is today, that's inflation amigo. That's not new, revolutionary, controversial, or really even contestable. It's a fact.
I have sold Zenstore items in the AH because I find $20/million AD to be abusively expensive and I'm not going to pay it. That paradigm will be even worse as time goes on and inflation continues while Zen is locked on the exchange. That's not to make a profit, that's to get me AD to spend on the AH that sends AD to another player.
It's not even a little gray, so not "whatever". Unbound Zenstore items can be sold on the AH; working as intended. As in not gray, not shady, not iffy.
Just because you don't like it doesn't make it shady.
The problem is not going to go away as long as the exchange rate is locked
Yes the problem will go away if by problem you mean the zax backlog , the backlog was growing on a daily basis until the day the astral resonator exploit was fixed then the backlog mysteriously stopped rising and started to fall and has continued to fall ever since and in all likelihood will continue to fall below 500/1 , inflation only exists in neverwinter due to a currency exploit that was not cleaned up properly , before the resonator exploit the game never suffered a backlog or 500/1 exchange rate apart from during a module launch and a week or 2 after and once the spare exploited AD has been washed through the system we will be back to how the exchange was up until just after module 3 before the exploiters got to work.
I have played SWTOR, saying there is no inflation in that currency is a flat out misrepresentation of fact...and that's putting it about as nicely as I possibly can.
The fact that NWO is not another MMO in no ways means what happens in them is not relevant here. NWO is not some special little snowflake of an MMO in that its economy will not respond as others do. That's ridiculous. Explain how NWOs economic model is somehow different from other MMO economies where wealth enters the game out of nowhere. There will always be more AD tomorrow than there is today, that's inflation amigo. That's not new, revolutionary, controversial, or really even contestable. It's a fact.
I have sold Zenstore items in the AH because I find $20/million AD to be abusively expensive and I'm not going to pay it. That paradigm will be even worse as time goes on and inflation continues while Zen is locked on the exchange. That's not to make a profit, that's to get me AD to spend on the AH that sends AD to another player.
It's not even a little gray, so not "whatever". Unbound Zenstore items can be sold on the AH; working as intended. As in not gray, not shady, not iffy.
Just because you don't like it doesn't make it shady.
That just means you're willing to destroy the game for your greed.
I'm not a seer so obviously I can't give an exact date, but the drop of over 4M looks very promising to me. There is nothing "magical" about it. When folks can pull AD out of thin air (Caturday, Astralday) it creates problems. Fortunately these problems tend to fix themselves over time because unlike a real economy people quit playing and their assets ROT. Otherwise you would still have tons and tons of cats on sale on the AH for practically nothing (caturday). Likewise you no longer see enchants selling at crazy prices because the folks that were buying them all up aren't getting them for free anymore.
Perhaps next time don't try show someone up by bluffing on making a bet if you're not prepared to have your bluff called.
I have played SWTOR, saying there is no inflation in that currency is a flat out misrepresentation of fact...and that's putting it about as nicely as I possibly can.
LOL this is a little OT but I stand by my statement. There is fluctuation in SWTOR but not runaway inflation. I can go onto the GTN and check the prices.. and lo and behold! same as last year.
Yes the problem will go away if by problem you mean the zax backlog , the backlog was growing on a daily basis until the day the astral resonator exploit was fixed then the backlog mysteriously stopped rising and started to fall and has continued to fall ever since and in all likelihood will continue to fall below 500/1 , inflation only exists in neverwinter due to a currency exploit that was not cleaned up properly , before the resonator exploit the game never suffered a backlog or 500/1 exchange rate apart from during a module launch and a week or 2 after and once the spare exploited AD has been washed through the system we will be back to how the exchange was up until just after module 3 before the exploiters got to work.
Your crystal ball fails to account for perfectly normal and predictable currency inflation, unless you posit that people spending real $ on Zen to convert to AD will be happy with a continuing cycle of ever-declining purchasing power. Are you?
Thank you. About time someone had some coffee before posting. Even if STO didn't prove it, most PWE games have a ZAx. I've beta-tested and played them all with the exception of Swordsman, which I only beta tested (no time for another full-time game to play atm). I've never seen either a backlog or the exchange rate being at max with the exception of a very select few cash shop events where bound CS currency could not be used.
LOL I've never played STO, or I'm sure I would have come up with this.
Please allow me to retract my claim that NWO is unique. Apparently, it's not.
I HAVE played RaiderZ (which is a PWE game), but there was no ZAX equivalent on that game. It was kinda small anyway.
Your crystal ball fails to account for perfectly normal and predictable currency inflation, unless you posit that people spending real $ on Zen to convert to AD will be happy with a continuing cycle of ever-declining purchasing power. Are you?
As the backlog continues to fall the value of AD will begin to rise , the only reason for its low value today is due to it's overabundance due to an exploit , once that is cleared out the economy will be very close to a pre module 3 level , as of now it is pointless arguing or debating the issue .
All I know is that the zax only started having major issues when a currency exploit was in use , as soon as that was fixed the backlog stopped rising and began falling and has continued to fall ever since, that isn't guesswork , that is pure fact.
Yup. I will be shocked if the botters, flippers, and ah tycoons allow it to disappear. They make too much ad with it existing.
Come on!
It seems as if all your points are coming from an assuming point of view!
A few weeks ago the backlog was at 13 million, and now it around 9 mill, that is living proof that the backlog is going down, and will continue to go down. what this the backlog wont go down theory? havent we seen facts and proof that it going downn?
And you should know something aswell, as the backlog goes down, the guys make less money, i will explain what i mean, and back it up with solid proofs
Let me explain one of the most effective ways these guys make money. i shouldnt explain this here but if it helps elighten the situation then what the hell right?
The make most of their AD by buying companions, and these companions are the companions that are in demand, which one of the Zen store companions is most in deman? yes that right the Stone of allure.
Back when the Backlog was at 13 million, this is how it worked.
They buy the companion for 1200 Zen, which = 600k AD.
The companion comes with a lesser bonding runestone.
During that time, the Companion was selling for 750k AD, and the lesser bonding runestone was selling for 300k AD, So in total they will roughly get 1million AD, take out the 10% cut from the AH, and they will be left with 900k AD, from the 900k AH, take out the initial 600k AD they used to buy the stone, and they will be left with 300k profit.
that a 300k profit whenever they make a sale, they are making money? yeah, and nothing is wrong with that, blame the exploiters.
Now when the backlog is at 9 mill, im going to be brief.
Now the stone sell for 640k, and the lesser bonding runestone sells for 170k, for a total of 810k, take out the 10% AH cut and they will be left with 729k, take out the initial cost of the companion which is 600k, and the profit they make is 130k.
they make a 130k for each sale they make.
Now you see how much their business is dropping due to the backlog? very soon they are going to make even less than they previously did.
Every single day they lose business, and it very silling to think these guys control the AH, if they did how comes the backlog is dropping? let be logical here, these guys are taking advantage of a situation, that i totally understand, but once the situation has be captured these guys are out, they cant keep the backlog where they want it to be, and as they stop making a lot of AD they are just going to stop doing it alltogther, hopefully very soon.
Hopefully i have explained things clearly, i know we have both been rash with eachother, and that because i think you guys are putting all the pressure on the guys who can make something out of this situation, when i reality we should blame Cryptic, PWE and the exploiters.
Hopefully we can forget the past, and reason to logic so that we all may better understand.
I'm with you in spirit, geeq5, I really am. You sound like you also want a return to normalcy instead of this insanity we have now.
But the backlog is not dropping as fast as you may think. It is holding at 10 million zen (5 billion AD), and that is even taking into account all the guys buying up for the Knox companion auction. I really wish it was 9 or lower, but it's just not. The fact that it IS INDEED going down steadily since mid August is very encouraging though... I'm just leery of taking trends as permanent.
I'm with you in spirit, geeq5, I really am. You sound like you also want a return to normalcy instead of this insanity we have now.
But the backlog is not dropping as fast as you may think. It is holding at 10 million zen (5 billion AD), and that is even taking into account all the guys buying up for the Knox companion auction. I really wish it was 9 or lower, but it's just not. The fact that it IS INDEED going down steadily since mid August is very encouraging though... I'm just leery of taking trends as permanent.
Thank you. About time someone had some coffee before posting. Even if STO didn't prove it, most PWE games have a ZAx. I've beta-tested and played them all with the exception of Swordsman, which I only beta tested (no time for another full-time game to play atm). I've never seen either a backlog or the exchange rate being at max with the exception of a very select few cash shop events where bound CS currency could not be used.
The ZAx itself isn't flawed. It's being used in the wrong way. By players and/or bots. If that's not the case, Cryptic has underestimated the amount of AD people are willing to gain through other means than gameplay or Zen exchange (yes, I'm talking about making a shetload of leadership toons instead of dungeon farming and putting a overly high pricetag on something without clear reasoning, among other things), devaluing the currency more the longer people are playing./QUOTE]
Leadership still has a max 24K per day and most leader bots do not generate that much. Actual professions tasks have a much higher yeaild. My artificing toon turns out 4 pact blades a day at an average 80k per egg (less actually buying in bulk when the price is low) and 130k per yeilds 120k refined a day after tax. My platesmithing toon yeilds about the same in Gambesons. then leatherworking which, with failure rates, averages 300k net a day in Darkleather +4 plus another 100k or so in slotted blues. Which in transaction taxes both directions removes 130-140k from the market through taxes and that's a small operation.
Comments
Right, and suddenly this will be the first MMO in the history of the genre not to have ingame currency inflation driven by old characters twinking alts. And that reversal of game finance history will mean that suddenly not only is $20 for a million AD a good idea...but people will think that's not enough money to spend on a million AD and will bid it up even higher!
I'm sorry, I have to go. I just noticed that I left my Unicorn double parked and I left it idling, I can tell because little rainbows are puffing out its tailpipe.
Care to make a wager on it?
I'll be happy to. Now, let's find someone I remotely trust and we'll both hand him something worth, oh I don't know, 5,000 Zen to hold. If, on October 3rd, the backlog's fully gone...meaning instant exchanges...and zen is being sold under 500 AD in those instant sales then you win. If it's not, I do.
Take your time, I'll wait.
Won't happen, botters and flippers will pour ad into the exchange first to keep it backlogged so they can keep selling things past the 500:1 to make a profit.
This is kinda where I'm at, too.
I know some of you are trying to play off the scammers/flippers/whatever as being either benevolent (LOL really?), harmless, or otherwise not a factor in this mess, but that ZAX loop works. If you have a large stockpile of AD it takes nothing but a little time to turn it into a bigger and bigger stockpile of AD at the expense of people who are not evading the ZAX like you are. For all any of you know, I may be one of the worst offenders, and my guilt has driven me to come clean on the forums.
I'm not, but how could you know for sure?
Regardless, I think it may be "counting our chickens" so to speak to claim that this thing is tamed. The AD barons are real. Not all of them are super-dedicated to bringing down the system, but they are possessed of a hearty self-interest that results in the rest of us having a crappier time. Are these barons above manipulating the backlog to further their own ends? I guess we'll see if this backlog goes away or not without further measures taken by the devs.
What do you mean by wont happen? Do you mean the backlog wont disappear?
Evading? You need to stop trying to make it sound like people are doing something shady.
The problem is not going to go away as long as the exchange rate is locked but inflation...which is going to happen and is a normal thing in any economy where currency magically appears out of thin air...continues in game. All a locked exchange does is guarantee that the people who actually pay for the game...the ones with dollars being spent...get less and less for their money and the free to play players get more and more for less and less.
It's not complicated; the longer the game goes on, the more AD exists within it...without any exploiting at all, whatsoever...just due to playing the game and getting AD rewards. That means, to make it as simple as I know how, inflation will happen. AH prices will go up. While they are going up, and there is more and more AD in the game, people spending real money to buy and convert Zen still get the same amount of AD for their money. That means their purchasing power continues to decline.
None of that is speculation. It's fact. Inflation exists, and must exist, in economies with currency coming into existence out of nowhere. Call them Printing Press economies for lack of a better term. More always comes in and without draconian taxes and mandatory/abusive sinks inflation's a fact of gaming life. I challenge you to point out MMO Printing Press currencies that have not inflated. Go ahead, I'll wait.
And at some point enough of the people who pay for the free-to-play people will decide it's too damned expensive to keep doing to have a permanent negative impact on PWE's bottom line. Then the free-to-play players will move on because the game won't be here.
Yup. I will be shocked if the botters, flippers, and ah tycoons allow it to disappear. They make too much ad with it existing.
No way did I say it will it be gone on Oct 3, but it will be much lower than now. Your obnoxious remark about unicorns and fairies and all implied it will NEVER go away. It's down from 14M to under 10M in 1 month. It will go below 500:1 but not by Oct 3.
What part of "and it will be just fine in another month" did I misunderstand? Too afraid of losing a piddly 5,000 zen to stick to that? Then pick a date, you're the one who asked me if I want to bet. Well, I want to bet. Terms?
Also, what is it you find offensive about unicorns?
Also, I never mentioned fairies.
The thing you aren't taking into account though is that there is a ton of churn in the player base and as folks get bored of Mod 4, they just don't bother flipping anymore. Likewise, some of the exploited AD rots away on no longer played accounts. Lately it's been cheaper to buy enchants on the AH than make them yourself. It won't be 1 month, it probably won't be 2 months, but I do believe the backlog will go away.
Less than 5% of my friends list logs in anymore......
That implies a return to normalcy in a month. 14M was bad. Under 10M is looking a lot better. In 1 month it should be closer to 6M. Moving in that direction implies "fine" to me and no need to start ringing all the alarms and asking for everything to become BoA and praying to the fairy unicorn under your bed for more Zen.
In other words, the bar you've set is "something better". That's pretty vague. That's also not remotely "everything will be just fine in another month" unless by just fine you mean slightly improved but some number lower than 10 million so you can say "see, it's fine!".
And yes, I implied that this economy magically fixing itself is the stuff of fairy tales. Because it is. Because inflation exists in all MMOs where currency comes into being on its own every day. And because only one of the currencies is being allowed to inflate. And because since that's the case, the value of Zen (i.e. the value of real $) when measured by the purchasing power it has when converted to AD to buy AH items is, and will continue to be, in a constant decline.
By what date will Zen by selling under 500 AD?
The only other MMO I've played with any kind of large playerbase was SWTOR, and that economy most certainly did NOT suffer from runaway inflation. But this is kinda like apples and oranges, because SWTOR had a subscriber base and no such thing as the ZAX, and a couple of other major mechanics differences from NWO.
And if we take it one step further in the analysis, you can't really point to any other MMO as an example for this game, because NWO is unique. Saying that rampant inflation in NWO is inevitable because of what happens in WOW or some other title is not a valid statement. This game economy is not going to be typical.
And as far as using the words "evade", "exploit", "scammers", etc.: sorry if that hits close to home for you (if indeed it does). I am not trying to insult anyone, I am trying to paint the picture of what is obvious to anyone without a dog in this fight: the ZAX loop is not helping.
When it is better to EVADE the exchange in order to BYPASS the 500:1 cap in order to make more AD for your Zen at the AH, and you purposefully do this to make a profit, it looks a lot like an EXPLOIT. A few pages back, I referred to anyone who still uses the ZAX to get AD for Zen as "rubes". As in the "you don't realize that you are getting taken advantage of" kind of "rubes".
Please note that I am not claiming that loopers are cheating with 3rd party software, or even violating the TOS (kinda a gray area, but whatever). The devs have left the loophole open, and I am one of the ones who thinks it should get closed. It should not be mechanically possible to relentlessly and consistently turn a profit by skipping past purposefully designed caps in the ZAX. That is a design flaw, IMO. That is not a player cheating so much as taking obvious advantage of a developer oversight.
STO's version of the ZAX pretty much proves you wrong. Same system, no backlog not pegged at the cap. It doesn't have to be broken. It's people defending inflation that are the problem.
I'm not a seer so obviously I can't give an exact date, but the drop of over 4M looks very promising to me. There is nothing "magical" about it. When folks can pull AD out of thin air (Caturday, Astralday) it creates problems. Fortunately these problems tend to fix themselves over time because unlike a real economy people quit playing and their assets ROT. Otherwise you would still have tons and tons of cats on sale on the AH for practically nothing (caturday). Likewise you no longer see enchants selling at crazy prices because the folks that were buying them all up aren't getting them for free anymore.
Alright, try it this way:
I have played SWTOR, saying there is no inflation in that currency is a flat out misrepresentation of fact...and that's putting it about as nicely as I possibly can.
The fact that NWO is not another MMO in no ways means what happens in them is not relevant here. NWO is not some special little snowflake of an MMO in that its economy will not respond as others do. That's ridiculous. Explain how NWOs economic model is somehow different from other MMO economies where wealth enters the game out of nowhere. There will always be more AD tomorrow than there is today, that's inflation amigo. That's not new, revolutionary, controversial, or really even contestable. It's a fact.
I have sold Zenstore items in the AH because I find $20/million AD to be abusively expensive and I'm not going to pay it. That paradigm will be even worse as time goes on and inflation continues while Zen is locked on the exchange. That's not to make a profit, that's to get me AD to spend on the AH that sends AD to another player.
It's not even a little gray, so not "whatever". Unbound Zenstore items can be sold on the AH; working as intended. As in not gray, not shady, not iffy.
Just because you don't like it doesn't make it shady.
Yes the problem will go away if by problem you mean the zax backlog , the backlog was growing on a daily basis until the day the astral resonator exploit was fixed then the backlog mysteriously stopped rising and started to fall and has continued to fall ever since and in all likelihood will continue to fall below 500/1 , inflation only exists in neverwinter due to a currency exploit that was not cleaned up properly , before the resonator exploit the game never suffered a backlog or 500/1 exchange rate apart from during a module launch and a week or 2 after and once the spare exploited AD has been washed through the system we will be back to how the exchange was up until just after module 3 before the exploiters got to work.
That just means you're willing to destroy the game for your greed.
Perhaps next time don't try show someone up by bluffing on making a bet if you're not prepared to have your bluff called.
LOL this is a little OT but I stand by my statement. There is fluctuation in SWTOR but not runaway inflation. I can go onto the GTN and check the prices.. and lo and behold! same as last year.
SMH
Your crystal ball fails to account for perfectly normal and predictable currency inflation, unless you posit that people spending real $ on Zen to convert to AD will be happy with a continuing cycle of ever-declining purchasing power. Are you?
LOL I've never played STO, or I'm sure I would have come up with this.
Please allow me to retract my claim that NWO is unique. Apparently, it's not.
I HAVE played RaiderZ (which is a PWE game), but there was no ZAX equivalent on that game. It was kinda small anyway.
As the backlog continues to fall the value of AD will begin to rise , the only reason for its low value today is due to it's overabundance due to an exploit , once that is cleared out the economy will be very close to a pre module 3 level , as of now it is pointless arguing or debating the issue .
All I know is that the zax only started having major issues when a currency exploit was in use , as soon as that was fixed the backlog stopped rising and began falling and has continued to fall ever since, that isn't guesswork , that is pure fact.
Come on!
It seems as if all your points are coming from an assuming point of view!
A few weeks ago the backlog was at 13 million, and now it around 9 mill, that is living proof that the backlog is going down, and will continue to go down. what this the backlog wont go down theory? havent we seen facts and proof that it going downn?
And you should know something aswell, as the backlog goes down, the guys make less money, i will explain what i mean, and back it up with solid proofs
Let me explain one of the most effective ways these guys make money. i shouldnt explain this here but if it helps elighten the situation then what the hell right?
The make most of their AD by buying companions, and these companions are the companions that are in demand, which one of the Zen store companions is most in deman? yes that right the Stone of allure.
Back when the Backlog was at 13 million, this is how it worked.
They buy the companion for 1200 Zen, which = 600k AD.
The companion comes with a lesser bonding runestone.
During that time, the Companion was selling for 750k AD, and the lesser bonding runestone was selling for 300k AD, So in total they will roughly get 1million AD, take out the 10% cut from the AH, and they will be left with 900k AD, from the 900k AH, take out the initial 600k AD they used to buy the stone, and they will be left with 300k profit.
that a 300k profit whenever they make a sale, they are making money? yeah, and nothing is wrong with that, blame the exploiters.
Now when the backlog is at 9 mill, im going to be brief.
Now the stone sell for 640k, and the lesser bonding runestone sells for 170k, for a total of 810k, take out the 10% AH cut and they will be left with 729k, take out the initial cost of the companion which is 600k, and the profit they make is 130k.
they make a 130k for each sale they make.
Now you see how much their business is dropping due to the backlog? very soon they are going to make even less than they previously did.
Every single day they lose business, and it very silling to think these guys control the AH, if they did how comes the backlog is dropping? let be logical here, these guys are taking advantage of a situation, that i totally understand, but once the situation has be captured these guys are out, they cant keep the backlog where they want it to be, and as they stop making a lot of AD they are just going to stop doing it alltogther, hopefully very soon.
Hopefully i have explained things clearly, i know we have both been rash with eachother, and that because i think you guys are putting all the pressure on the guys who can make something out of this situation, when i reality we should blame Cryptic, PWE and the exploiters.
Hopefully we can forget the past, and reason to logic so that we all may better understand.
But the backlog is not dropping as fast as you may think. It is holding at 10 million zen (5 billion AD), and that is even taking into account all the guys buying up for the Knox companion auction. I really wish it was 9 or lower, but it's just not. The fact that it IS INDEED going down steadily since mid August is very encouraging though... I'm just leery of taking trends as permanent.
There have been other dips in the backlog before, and it rose right back up afterwards.
http://nwzen.biz/nwzentracker/graphAmount.php?time=Months&number=20&timezone=-8&hourly=no&showSell=no&linec=000319&ticks=10
That's what we have data for.
I understand it not dropping down dramatically, but hey let look at the bright side, it going down, it may take a while but it will surely go down.