Rising Gold Prices
Comments
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If you take into account the fact that the price of gold fluctuates, this starts to sound a lot like a derivatives contract. Here's an example to help you understand how it all works.Viper_girl - Heavens Tear wrote: »Lets say the exchange rate is 150K. What will happen is the chests will be worth 250K or so because it will cost 750K for a Perfect Hammer. The Cash shop buyer walks away with 1mil coin for an investment of 250K + 5 Gold. The person selling it walks away with 250K as compensation for his time and effort in obtaining the chest.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-briggs012202.shtml
b:chuckle0 -
Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »If you take into account the fact that the price of gold fluctuates, this starts to sound a lot like a derivatives contract. Here's an example to help you understand how it all works.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-briggs012202.shtml
b:chuckle
It is actually more like an Option without expiration date. But I did not want to complicate the discussion with how volatility affects pricing.0 -
Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »If you take into account the fact that the price of gold fluctuates, this starts to sound a lot like a derivatives contract. Here's an example to help you understand how it all works.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-briggs012202.shtml
b:chuckle
LMAO... edge markets at their best, pretty much people are edging their bets on the market, just like all the commodaties markets in the world.. You buy betting that the future worth of what you buy will be higher at a later time than it is today, therefore people are willing to pay more today for it..... that really messes up the people that really need that item today and are not edging on future values lol....
And people say this is just a game b:laughToo often we loose sight of life's simple pleasures. Remember, when someone annoys you, it takes 42 muscles in your face to frown, BUT, it only takes 4 muscles to extend your arm and slap that mother#$@%#^! upside the head.0 -
Viper_girl - Heavens Tear wrote: »2) You don't HAVE to turn the Gold Chest into coin, you can sell it. Lets say the exchange rate is 150K. What will happen is the chests will be worth 250K or so because it will cost 750K for a Perfect Hammer. The Cash shop buyer walks away with 1mil coin for an investment of 250K + 5 Gold. The person selling it walks away with 250K as compensation for his time and effort in obtaining the chest.
Not quite.
If gold is 150k and you need 5 of them, the cost will be (150k*5)+2% = 765k
There is no point buying a chest for 235k or above because you would not make any profit.
The Gold Chest really only has a value of 200k-210k to make it worth buying.
You got to laugh at people trying to sell them at 300k-400k, with gold selling for around 180k the boxes will have to be sold for less than 82k for the purchaser make any profit.
Even if the price of gold drops back down to 115k and you buy a box for 400k, you would only make a profit of 13.5k.
Even a PWI noob like me can make 50k-100k with 5 gold pretty easily.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
My Sigs >> myweb.tiscali.co.uk/squeek/pages/sigs/sigs.htm0 -
Why i cant find it?plz someone tell b:bye0
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Nope. It's Jolly Jones. I'd post proof, but why not just wait until the 12th? Then the facts can settle it.Mad_Doc - Sanctuary wrote: »gold chests is what keeping the price of gold high... it's 1mil coin for a 5 gold hammer. it's not the joly jones that's making this gold prices high.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com0 -
JJ gives gold prices the green light to go up to nearly 300k (as long as buying 1 angel is < 100k, buying gold will be cheaper)WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »Nope. It's Jolly Jones. I'd post proof, but why not just wait until the 12th? Then the facts can settle it.
Cube chests give gold prices the green light to go up to nearly 200k (as long as buying 1 hammer is < 1mil, buying gold for them will technically be profitable)
We're gonna lose JJ in a week, but when are we gonna lose the cube chests? That's what we need to think about, here.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Yes, I'm still a stubborn holdout in favor of the old game. Haters gonna hate. ;]
Other Active Characters:
LigerKing (Barb), Girasole (BM), Shamsheer (Sin), ArborSoul (Mystic).0 -
The reason why the price for Gold has shot through the roof, is because of the addition of Jolly Old Jones, not the Gear Shattering system.
For those who are not familiar with Jolly Old Jones, he's an NPC that allows players to trade either Guardian Angels for rewards, or 100k coins.
The secondary purpose of Jolly Old Jones, other than providing you guys with items, is to drain the economy. The last time we had this event, we drained a huge amount of money out of the PWI economy, and Gold prices re-stabilized at a lower price after Jolly Old Jones was removed from the game.
Currently gold prices are inflated, however they should fall back down after this event/sale, perhaps even to a lower benchmark since so much coin is being sunk out of the game right now.
Gold trading is something that we pay a lot of attention to at PWE. We realize that a large number of players get their gold through the auction house, and carefully watch that system with a variety of metrics, statistics, and tools. You can be sure that when you guys are upset about high Gold prices, we become concerned for our players who can't afford to charge their ZEN directly.
We also realize that lately it seems like it's been nothing but sale after sale. That's simply because the large content update we had today required a lot of work from the development team, and with the upcoming additions of the Bounty Hunter and Warsong City (very soon) it's easy to see how their plate has been full.
Now finally. There are some monumental updates on the way for PWI. I cannot go into the specifics of what they are, but I can say that upon having the news of these updates fall upon my ears, I was not only shocked beyond belief, but more excited than I've been for any previous content update/expansion.
somehow i get the feeling your logic isn't working gold prices now on Sanctuary 720k to 900k not good0 -
where'd that post about this thread used to be sticky go? i was going to quote it but i cant floggin find it again lol.
anyway, this thread (according to that post) used to be sticky, and now its not sticky since things turned sour. i say it should be re-stickied.
sticking something then when it turns on you you un-sticky it... not only sounds like a cover up to me, but it is a coverup no matter how you look at it.i'm pro all classes, and against none in particular..
but the age old QQ about venos is just that. OLD.
QQ'd about a nix lately? check out this thread n tell me who's "OP" lol..
(copy and paste this to address bar):
pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1021720 -
where'd that post about this thread used to be sticky go? i was going to quote it but i cant floggin find it again lol.
anyway, this thread (according to that post) used to be sticky, and now its not sticky since things turned sour. i say it should be re-stickied.
sticking something then when it turns on you you un-sticky it... not only sounds like a cover up to me, but it is a coverup no matter how you look at it.
And that's why we keep posting in it. To keep it near the top. b:chuckle0 -
Zirconium - Heavens Tear wrote: »Not quite.
If gold is 150k and you need 5 of them, the cost will be (150k*5)+2% = 765k
There is no point buying a chest for 235k or above because you would not make any profit.
The Gold Chest really only has a value of 200k-210k to make it worth buying.
I was trying to simplify the explanation by leaving out transactions fees and the implicit value caused by the non-expiring option and volatility.
In actual fact the Gold Chest is worth even more than the 250K difference in my example because you are buying a guaranteed option to buy 1 mil coin for 5 gold at any time in the future. So people gambling that the Gold price will fall will add a value to being able to buy and hold it for the future. In general the boxes are not worthwhile for someone who intends to cash it in immediately. The AH is a better deal there.
The optimal theoretical price could probably be determined using the Binomial or Black Scholes Option pricing model. Economics/Finance Majors might want to consider this as a fun project, LOL.0 -
All this hype about JJ and gold chests forcing up gold prices they have nothing to do with it. Gold prices are set by 1 thing and 1 thing only the price that people are willing to pay for it and if anyone deliberatly buys gold at 190k to get a small profit from a chest he got in cube he should be shot for pure stupidity. The profit from the chest will be nothing compared to the increased coin he will have to pay for charms etc
There is one very simple way for the pwi community to get gold prices back down to 120k DONT BUY IT FOR ANY HIGHER PRICE. if no one buy gold the sellers will be forced to lower prices or lose the commision everytime they place a sell order.
Now what i am going to say next will come as a shock to people. You can play the game perfectly well and without much difficulty without using any cash shop items. yes i know i'm a veno so it is easier for me but still.
GA's: not needed simple answer dont get killed or suck it up and take the exp loss
Mounts/aerogear: you are given an aerogear for free at lvl 30 learn patience or go read the paper while you do WQ
Dragon orbs: refining is completely un needed so what if it take slighly longer to kill and if you hp is too low for you to do quests wait a few lvls
And the big one charms:
HP charms are certainly not neccessary form a sqaud with a cleric or 2 if you need it
MP charms: probably the closest any item comes to being vital. For grinding agian learn patience and meditate or train apothecary and make the +50/100 MP regen items. now for some instances if you only have 1 cleric spam healing will be needed but i still dont see why it would be impossible to do useing MP regen, elixers and MP potions made at the apothecary.
Now before you start flaming i am well aware that playing this way would take comsiderably longer with more time being spend grinding and farming herbs but i am not suggesting that eveerynoe play this way all the time. With just a bit of patience most players could greatly reduce their need for cash shop items which would force gold prices down.
I myself will never buy gold or cash shop players from plyers for any price higher than 120k per gold and i hope that enough others do the same for it to have an effect0 -
You may be entirely right... in fact I would say you are... but you fail to acknowledge that:_Aphrael_ - Sanctuary wrote: »There is one very simple way for the pwi community to get gold prices back down to 120k DONT BUY IT FOR ANY HIGHER PRICE. if no one buy gold the sellers will be forced to lower prices or lose the commision everytime they place a sell order.
1. Your chances of getting everyone who reads this thread to adopt your strategy are extremely low.
2. Your chances of getting everyone on the forum to do it are abysmally low, if not impossible.
3. Your chances of getting everyone in the game to do it are less than impossible. We're talking freezing-day-in-hell impossible, here.
Granted, the more people who boycott, the lower gold prices would be... but not by any measurable amount. You have 50 people who boycott against 500 who buy no matter what the price is. It just will never work. The only viable strategy is making sure the staff sees this and hoping they get the common sense to remove cube chests and tone down the sale events.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Yes, I'm still a stubborn holdout in favor of the old game. Haters gonna hate. ;]
Other Active Characters:
LigerKing (Barb), Girasole (BM), Shamsheer (Sin), ArborSoul (Mystic).0 -
You may be entirely right... in fact I would say you are... but you fail to acknowledge that:
1. Your chances of getting everyone who reads this thread to adopt your strategy are extremely low.
2. Your chances of getting everyone on the forum to do it are abysmally low, if not impossible.
3. Your chances of getting everyone in the game to do it are less than impossible. We're talking freezing-day-in-hell impossible, here.
I am perfectly aware of the likely hood that anyone will follow my strategy but if even a single person does it will make the 2 mins i spend writing it worthwhile.
The really annoying thing however is the number of people who will read it, call me an idiot and then procede to moan about how high gold prices are0 -
_Aphrael_ - Sanctuary wrote: »I am perfectly aware of the likely hood that anyone will follow my strategy but if even a single person does it will make the 2 mins i spend writing it worthwhile.
The really annoying thing however is the number of people who will read it, call me an idiot and then procede to moan about how high gold prices are
b:chuckle This made me LOL! b:chuckle just an FYI I adopted this theory upon the last event. I've not bought gold in game in a long long time. When it returns back to 120k or less per gold, I will resume. Until then, I'm just fine. Stubborn even.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
_Aphrael_ - Sanctuary wrote: »All this hype about JJ and gold chests forcing up gold prices they have nothing to do with it. Gold prices are set by 1 thing and 1 thing only the price that people are willing to pay for it and if anyone deliberatly buys gold at 190k to get a small profit from a chest he got in cube he should be shot for pure stupidity.
Let's say that the golden box gives 10 mil after the next update. You can be sure that the gold price will get close to 2 mil each. Are people being dumb to pay for 200k each or even much higher for 5 gold to get 10 mil? It might not happen if these boxes are rare, but the supply of these boxes are overwhelming. You get them from the cube and from Rebirth. 90% of the players I know over 75 are doing Rebirth daily. The supply of these boxes creates huge demand for hammers/gold. Demand = high price (as high as it's profitable for people to still buy hammers/gold which is a bit under 1 mil for hammer and a bit under 200k for gold). Everyone around 80 will have tons of boxes sitting in the bank that buying gold for 190k each or hammer for 900k each is quite a reasonable thing to do.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
"Closing this for excess letter Q's" - hawk0 -
Well there is a gold celing at 1 million per gold that was set when PWI first began so prices will never go past 1 million per gold no matter what.Main characters
Celestial Sage Venomancer Zoe - 100
Sage Barbarian Malego - 910 -
Zoe - Heavens Tear wrote: »Well there is a gold celing at 1 million per gold that was set when PWI first began so prices will never go past 1 million per gold no matter what.
at that exchange rate, it would take 4 mil to buy a gold charm.. lol... ppls be rolling off the game faster than their devs can spawn sales in the cash shop. (pretty fast)[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
But what about a player who gets massive profits from Jolly Jones? Is he/she stupid and deserving of being shot?_Aphrael_ - Sanctuary wrote: »All this hype about JJ and gold chests forcing up gold prices they have nothing to do with it. Gold prices are set by 1 thing and 1 thing only the price that people are willing to pay for it and if anyone deliberatly buys gold at 190k to get a small profit from a chest he got in cube he should be shot for pure stupidity.
I have made about 75million on the Jolly Jones event. Yes, that's 75,000,000, and no, I'm not exaggerating even a little bit. My girlfriend has made about 120million. Yes, 120,000,000.
You can call for a boycott all you like, but there was absolutely no way I was going to refuse to buy gold for 200k when the insane profits of the Jolly Jones event were there for the taking. The only reason I'm stopping now is because I'd rather not invest anymore time in the game than I already have these past 2 weeks.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com0 -
I'm a little skeptical that the option to cash in on the coin boxes in the future is really worth that much though. This isn't the real world, where you average annual return is about 7%, and any time you can make more than about 30% in a short span of time is extraordinary. In this game, every time there's a sale (about every 2 weeks it seems), you can make a 30%-100% return. My money is much more valuable to me as liquid coin so I can take advantage of those sales, rather than tied up for months in a box while I hope that gold prices fall so I can maybe make 20%-40%. IMHO, buying the coin boxes as an investment would be kinda like putting your RL money into a 3-year CD locked at 1.5%. Case and point:Viper_girl - Heavens Tear wrote: »In actual fact the Gold Chest is worth even more than the 250K difference in my example because you are buying a guaranteed option to buy 1 mil coin for 5 gold at any time in the future. So people gambling that the Gold price will fall will add a value to being able to buy and hold it for the future. In general the boxes are not worthwhile for someone who intends to cash it in immediately. The AH is a better deal there.
My experience is pretty much the same. When all is said and done, my coin total is gonna be in the same ballpark as yours. It's insane how easy it is to make money from the JJ event. By my calculations, at the lowest prices the stuff was selling for on HT, gold could've gone up to 220k and it still would've been reasonably profitable (HT peaked at around 195k, sitting between 175k-185k most of the time).WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »But what about a player who gets massive profits from Jolly Jones? Is he/she stupid and deserving of being shot?
I have made about 75million on the Jolly Jones event. Yes, that's 75,000,000, and no, I'm not exaggerating even a little bit. My girlfriend has made about 120million. Yes, 120,000,000.
You can call for a boycott all you like, but there was absolutely no way I was going to refuse to buy gold for 200k when the insane profits of the Jolly Jones event were there for the taking. The only reason I'm stopping now is because I'd rather not invest anymore time in the game than I already have these past 2 weeks.
I tried to time my gold purchases so it didn't seriously impact the prevailing price. (i.e. I didn't do anything like buy up all the gold selling at 180-195k in one shot. I bought less than the total offered at the lowest selling price. I have a vested interest in keeping the price of gold low too.) But I'm not gonna stop buying gold just because some people lacking imagination or initiative can't see that 180k was actually underpriced at the time.0 -
This made me LOL! just an FYI I adopted this theory upon the last event. I've not bought gold in game in a long long time. When it returns back to 120k or less per gold, I will resume. Until then, I'm just fine. Stubborn even.
its nice to see someone else with senseThe supply of these boxes creates huge demand for hammers/gold. Demand = high price (as high as it's profitable for people to still buy hammers/gold which is a bit under 1 mil for hammer and a bit under 200k for gold). Everyone around 80 will have tons of boxes sitting in the bank that buying gold for 190k each or hammer for 900k each is quite a reasonable thing to do.
You missed the point entirely. At 190k each a hammer costs 5 x 190 x 1.02 = 969k so if you completed cube every day and got 1 chest from taking the reward pack you would make 31k per day. Now at 120k each a gold charm costs 4 x 120 x 1.02 = 489.6k. At 190k its 4 x 190 x 1.02 = 775.2
each gold charm you buy will cost you 285.6k more
285.6/31 = 9.2 so if you go through a gold charm in 9 days or less it is certianly not resonable and it will cost you more if you buy gold at 190 to open the chests and that is only taking charms into account what about GA's, esoterica, teleacoustics and everything else people thing they have to have. yes if you get more than 1 box per day the equation changes and it might be slighlty profitable depending on which char you play and the cash shop items you use but think about how selfish you are being in keeping prices that high to make a few thousand coins when prices that high make it much harder for other players who cant use rl money for zen to buy things0 -
The secondary purpose of Jolly Old Jones, other than providing you guys with items, is to drain the economy. The last time we had this event, we drained a huge amount of money out of the PWI economy, and Gold prices re-stabilized at a lower price after Jolly Old Jones was removed from the game.
After ready this part i realized you never played this game. Gratz
Now finally. There are some monumental updates on the way for PWI. I cannot go into the specifics of what they are, but I can say that upon having the news of these updates fall upon my ears, I was not only shocked beyond belief, but more excited than I've been for any previous content update/expansion.
We need this in PWI:
-Higer gold prices;
-More nerfed class's;
-Bleed doing 3x more damage in PvP than in PvE;
-The third rebirth of Jolly Old Bones.
When you do all this i will actually pay to play againb:byePVP: 3800 kills in the name of KD lawl
Retired as of 18/11/09
Back as of 22/11/10
Archer retired as of 26/12/100 -
Ajani - Harshlands wrote: »After ready this part i realized you never played this game. Gratz
We need this in PWI:
-Higer gold prices;
-More nerfed class's;
-Bleed doing 3x more damage in PvP than in PvE;
-The third rebirth of Jolly Old Bones.
When you do all this i will actually pay to play againb:bye
Hehe...
b:chuckle
...you see, it's funny...because YOU'RE not.
ಠ_ಠೊ[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Yeah, it's me. Don't read to much into it, though; I'm only here for myself now, killin' time and chillin' when need-be. So sue me. Tch...0 -
ye i must admit ajani your claims is ridiculous uve probally listed all the things that people dont want in the game....0
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Unreal_God - Harshlands wrote: »ye i must admit ajani your claims is ridiculous uve probally listed all the things that people dont want in the game....
Don't just agree with me. I'm just bein' a smartass because I can. It's a lot better that taking this game in a WHY SO SERIOUS?! matter.
Provide facts and background, otherwise, please...
...kindly follow the actions of this helpful visual aid:
b:shutup
PS. It's called sarcasm. Look it up, smarty.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Yeah, it's me. Don't read to much into it, though; I'm only here for myself now, killin' time and chillin' when need-be. So sue me. Tch...0 -
Selling the items he gives you:
Dreamweaver prices:
Food. 200, selling at 300-400 for 60k-80k
Shards. Red and blue selling at 50-60k Citrine selling at 110-125k for an actual profit.
8888xp Fruit - just plain not selling.
Training eso's are 40k Which is insane, if people were selling from the cash shop!
So that leaves... oracles.
Which are retailing at 35k-45k, our first real profit at 105-135k
The rings are basically worthless.
Running the percentages (trusting pwdatabase, it seems roughly right this time):
Oracles make up a third of the items, food another 20%, crappy shards 16%, eso's 5% and the good shard 8%
Average income then (assuming you sell everything, not a good bet given the competition in west arch) is:
39.6 + 14 + 8.8 + 9.4 + 2 = 73.8k average.
At current gold prices, you're looking at 240k for a gold, 2.7 gold for 10 angels - 67k for a jolly.
So yeah, if you can invest the case you're going to make a profit. (At these prices, you make a profit even if gold goes back up to 245k, if gold goes up above that then probably the jolly prices go up a bit too, but that's the break even point by my calculations)
The rich get richer... Whilst the poor *can't sell anything in the auction house because the rich are flooding it to make liquid cash*
On the plus side, we can buy stuff there, I guess.
Edit: Oh yeah, some people will be making more, 'cause not everyone will be buying the very cheapest shard (etc.) that they can find. I know I bought a couple before the price dropped further.0 -
Here's my prices, and yes... it sells quickly enough. All I have to do right now is break even to buy more gold. Once the events over prices go up and I make gold back (I realize selling cheaper would get more coin overall, but this is lower maintence... it works out better for my schedule).
Oracle I - 12% - 55k*3=19800
Oracle II - 10% - 70k*2=14000
Oracle III - 10% - 85k*2=17000
Scarlet Fruit - 15% - 75k*1=11250
Multiflavor Jiaozi - 10% - 500*200=10000
Sesame Yuanxiao - 10% - 500*200=10000
Mold: Crazed Lupine Ring - 2% - 20k*1=400
Mold: Ring of Blazing Fury - 2% - 20k*1=400
Training Esoterica - 5% - 50k*1=2500
Beautiful Garnet Shard - 8% - 100k*1=8000
Beautiful Sapphire Shard - 8% - 100k*1=8000
Beautiful Citrine Shard - 8% - 100k*1=8000
Total=109350 coin.
At 205k gold, that's 209100 coin per gold.
2.9 gold for 10 GA's is 606390 coin per 10 GA's.
GA's=60639 coin each
109350-60639=48711 profit per pack.
If you reduce the list only to the things I'm selling right now, as rings are unlikely to decrease further and use up valuable trader space (I can only run two, that's 24 slots... I fill it easy), eso's will be consumed and go up, and I'm using the shards for myself/friends, that changes it to:
Oracle I - 12% - 55k*3=19800
Oracle II - 10% - 70k*2=14000
Oracle III - 10% - 85k*2=17000
Scarlet Fruit - 15% - 75k*1=11250
Multiflavor Jiaozi - 10% - 500*200=10000
Sesame Yuanxiao - 10% - 500*200=10000
Total=82050 coin.
At 205k gold, that's 209100 coin per gold.
2.9 gold for 10 GA's is 606390 coin per 10 GA's.
GA's=60639 coin each
82050-60639=21411 profit per pack.
Right now I have enough of a surplus because as you would imagine, my items sell slower than those who are selling cheaper and as jolly ends and these items are consumed, mine end up being worth more and the profit rises further. As it is, I buy gold in increments of 29 (and I spread the buys out over several values, if you put an amount over 15 or so as a buy order, people jump over you wasting your listing fee and increasing the price pretty much permanently) which gets me 100 packs. At 21411 profit per pack, that's 2,141,100 profit for each set. I do that once or twice a day. It works out well, over the day I get back about 1-1.5 mil in sales. I get enough spare coin that between that and grinding, I'm able to maintain the 29 gold a day, after Jolly I can basically cash out of it with around 10 million (I didn't do it each day), that's by no means a record breaking event profit but record breaking isn't my goal.
The real question you should be asking isn't how are people making a fortune, but how are people not making a fortune, and how can people have had this much coin just laying around to buy stuff?0 -
-deleted multipost-0
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Well, I'm not making a fortune because I only had about 60k available when the whole mess started.
The players on the high end? The ones throwing around 11 or 20 million on mounts? Well, they have the cash because nothing drains it. If they're talking about grinding 100/200k an hour, that money just piles up.
Oh, and of course, you've seen the world chats? People flogging their every worldly possession to make coin to spend in your jollyshop?
Oracles do drain cash (at the expense of the mid-high levels emptying out and the 80s and 90s filling up) and I think that's the aim.
I'm just... peeved that I already spent my cash.0 -
Many people keep saying that the hammers make it a solid 196k price. I dont know about some of you, but paying 1 mil to make 1 mil....? why not just sell the gold it makes no sense. Why would I use 1 mil in coins to buy...1 mil in coins.0
This discussion has been closed.
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