Refining for cheap

Valirah - Sanctuary

quicksandz wrote: »

Is this true? 740 gold?

Um, no.

Total Cost to +2 : 1 Gold 35 Silvers
Total Cost to +3 : 4 Gold 5 Silvers
Total Cost to +4 : 10 Gold 80 Silvers
Total Cost to +5 : 27 Gold
Total Cost to +6 : 62 Gold 10 Silvers
Total Cost to +7 : 120 Gold 15 Silvers
Total Cost to +8 : 229 Gold 50 Silvers
Total Cost to +9 : 432 Gold
Total Cost to +10 : 801 Gold 90 Silvers
Total Cost to +11 : 1483 Gold 65 Silvers
Total Cost to +12 : 2737 Gold 80 Silvers


If you figure in a typical 33% off orb sale, that drops to about 1800 gold. Using Ocean's for +8-10, and to craft 11 and 12 saves another 600 gold or so.

*Edit* forgot to include Ocean's savings when crafting 11 and 12

ingel21

I have a big mess. Since I am now level 31, however, has not yet become a level 19 skill. The other skill is not well, what should I do?

Vitenka - Dreamweaver

ingel21 wrote: »

I have a big mess. Since I am now level 31, however, has not yet become a level 19 skill. The other skill is not well, what should I do?

Um, wow.
To quote:

"I am not apt to understand the confusion of mind that could lead to such a question"


Or, to put it more simply:
WTF? And WHATEVER the F that question was meant to be, this is surely the wrong thread. I shall nonetheless answer the question in the spirit it was asked:

You should level your chi stones to +4 so that you can refine your dragon orbs at level 30 so then your mess will be less huge.

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

560, 5, 7. The number of mirages, tienkang stones, and tisha stones (respectively) it has taken me (so far) to get my warsoul helm to my goal of +6. I saw my helm hit +3 3 times. Out of 560. Am I just horribly unlucky, or have the rates been nerfed?

BTW, my refining plan was
+1: Mirage
+2: Mirage
+3: Tienkang
+4: Tisha
+5: Tisha
+6: Tisha

Michael_Dark - Lost City

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear wrote: »

560, 5, 7. The number of mirages, tienkang stones, and tisha stones (respectively) it has taken me (so far) to get my warsoul helm to my goal of +6. I saw my helm hit +3 3 times. Out of 560. Am I just horribly unlucky, or have the rates been nerfed?

BTW, my refining plan was
+1: Mirage
+2: Mirage
+3: Tienkang
+4: Tisha
+5: Tisha
+6: Tisha

Just by doing one piece, there is no way to say for certain, but yeah, you burned more mirages and used less tishas than I would have guessed.

Some items will go up relatively easy and a few pieces would cost you more than the orbs, but overall if you only tisha you'll save in the long run.

Thelas_Carr - Sanctuary

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear wrote: »

560, 5, 7. The number of mirages, tienkang stones, and tisha stones (respectively) it has taken me (so far) to get my warsoul helm to my goal of +6. I saw my helm hit +3 3 times. Out of 560. Am I just horribly unlucky, or have the rates been nerfed?

BTW, my refining plan was
+1: Mirage
+2: Mirage
+3: Tienkang
+4: Tisha
+5: Tisha
+6: Tisha

I haven't done adjustments for Tienkang's and Tisha's in my spreadsheet, but to get an armor (helm) to +6 while ONLY using Mirages would require 562 sequence attempts for a 50% confidence of success, burning 1686 Mirages on average. If you got to +6 and only burned 560 Mirages, that seems qutie a bit better than the Mirage-only route. To get up to 80% confidence of success with only Mirages, you'd need 1304 sequence attempts and would burn 3912 Mirages on average. Even if Mirages were only 10k a pop, that's $118.55. You could get 100% chance of success by simply buying 230 1-star Dragon Orbs, and combining them for a total cost of $62.10.

$118.55 for 80% chance of success
$62.10 for 100% chance of success

I'd take the sure thing for a lower cost any day. Results for Tisha and Tienkang's might alter the odds, but I can't see the comparison to a sure thing changing.

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

I didn't get to +6
>.>

peacefulsilence

Someone like me DO's are my only choice, when it comes to probility I'm utterly SoL. Took 20 mirage stones figuring what the hell and try adding a plus or two to a few gears. Failed 20 times in a row to achieve even +1. I have similar luck with packs, which I don't even touch anymore. Opening 150 in a row and getting a solid streak of ToL's, and trust me, by 50 I was already pretty pissed and wondering why I was still opening them.

Chance does not like me one bit.

I might get uber lucky once in a purple pokkidotted moon.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear wrote: »

560, 5, 7. The number of mirages, tienkang stones, and tisha stones (respectively) it has taken me (so far) to get my warsoul helm to my goal of +6. I saw my helm hit +3 3 times. Out of 560. Am I just horribly unlucky, or have the rates been nerfed?

BTW, my refining plan was
+1: Mirage
+2: Mirage
+3: Tienkang
+4: Tisha
+5: Tisha
+6: Tisha

According to the calculations in the spreadsheet, the average cost would be something like 10.8 million using the strategy you've listed (I'm assuming Sanctuary prices of 13500 per Mirage and ~410k Gold), and you've spent about 8.9 million so far.

I ran 100,000 simulations with 8.9 million to spend, following the strategy you're following, and the results were a 44.24% chance of failure. So your luck is kinda bad, but certainly nothing out-of-this-world bad.

My first recommendation would be to try a different strategy. Going with Mirages-only to get to +3 will average about ~500k, whereas using Tienkangs to go from +2 to +3 will average about ~580k. You're saving some time using the Tienkang (you're averaging 24 refines vs. 27 refines), but it's costing an extra 16%.

Also, Tishas are really not worth it until you're going for the final +6. The problem with them is that you're increasing your chance of failure by 12.5%, which means Tienkangs are actually the less risky choice for going to +4 and +5.

If you go with Mirages to +3, then Tienkangs to +5, then Tisha for the final +6, the average cost for refining drops to about ~7.6 million.

Thelas_Carr - Sanctuary wrote: »

$118.55 for 80% chance of success
$62.10 for 100% chance of success

I'd take the sure thing for a lower cost any day. Results for Tisha and Tienkang's might alter the odds, but I can't see the comparison to a sure thing changing.

Again assuming the above listed Sanctuary prices, the cost for a +6 Dragon Orb refine is currently ~18.4 million.

Now, you could spend that 18.4 million on the sure-thing and get a 100% chance of 1 +6 refine. Or, you could spend that same money following the optimal refine path (Mirage to +3, Tienkang to +5, Tisha to +6) and have the following chances for these results:

Failure: 8.2% chance
1 +6 refine: 21.6% chance
2 +6 refines: 28% chance
3 +6 refines: 21.8% chance
4 +6 refines: 12.8% chance
5 +6 refines: 5.1% chance
6 or more +6 refines: 2.4% chance

So, um, yeah... I think the numbers kinda speak for themselves. To me, the sure-thing just isn't appealing when I'm refining multiple pieces of armour because multiple pieces means the odds are going to average out. Perhaps if I only ever was planning to refine my weapon, which I know is what a lot of people do, then Dragon Orbs only does makes some sense, but in my case I did all my armour/ornaments to +5 for about 1/3rd the price I would have paid using a Dragon Orb sale. That's some pretty darn serious savings.

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

Bleh, I may have read something wrong.
The part that bugs me though is that I didn't get anywhere near 30% of going from +2-+3 (with or without tienkangs), I thought the refining rate may have changed or something

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

Just got ~5-8 +3's with 300 mirages, guess it was just bad luck then.

Kirune - Heavens Tear

How does one use the trial option on the excel work sheet? *excel-challenged* When I try to run a trial, it tells me: Compile Error: Can't find project or library.

I haven't messed with anything yet; just took it straight from opening the file I downloaded.

By the way, great work here and thanks for compiling all this information.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Kirune - Heavens Tear wrote: »

How does one use the trial option on the excel work sheet? *excel-challenged* When I try to run a trial, it tells me: Compile Error: Can't find project or library.

I haven't messed with anything yet; just took it straight from opening the file I downloaded.

By the way, great work here and thanks for compiling all this information.

Step 1: Swear at Microsoft for changing how Visual Basic works between different versions of Excel
Step 2: Wait to get home to create a fix
Step 3: Wait to get back to work the next day to check to see if the fix works on this different version of Excel than I have at home

b:angry

Yeah, sorry... it works fine at home, but not here at the office. I'll have it fixed by tonight, hopefully. Sorry about that, but thanks for letting me know!

- EDIT -

OK, I think it's fixed, but I can't be sure since it always worked on my version of Excel. Note that this is actually a slightly improved version that has drop-down menus allowing you to experiment with different types of stones.

Rillien - Heavens Tear

I'm disappointed this was moved to crafting...more people saw it on general.

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

Rillien - Heavens Tear wrote: »

I'm disappointed this was moved to crafting...more people saw it on general.

+1...better get a sticky, though

Kirune - Heavens Tear

No problem. I tested it out again, and it works!
...well, the run trial part does anyways. I still get that error when I try to reset my trials XD
And no need to apologize. The work is very much appreciated.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear wrote: »

+1...better get a sticky, though

Yay! We gotz a sticky! b:thanks

Kirune - Heavens Tear wrote: »

No problem. I tested it out again, and it works!
...well, the run trial part does anyways. I still get that error when I try to reset my trials XD
And no need to apologize. The work is very much appreciated.

lols... yup, you're right. I guess they broke that too, so I've re-done the programming and it seems to work now. b:victory

Ursa - Dreamweaver

my little refine story:
went to Lost City Elder
1. Lunar ring +2
Success
Success
2. Lunar ring +2
fail - lvl reset
fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail
success
fail fai fail
sucess
fail fail fail fail
sucess
fail fail....etc

All in all spent about 100 mirages to get my ring back to my original +2

This is not my first attempt of this kind for various gear pieces and in various locations.
50% chances at +1? yeah, right, and pigs fly.

Brigid - Harshlands

No, it's 50% chance to get TO +1. In other words, to go from unrefined to +1. +1 to +2 is 30%, according to his data. That said, you still apparently had a streak of terrible luck.

Also, congratulations on the well-deserved sticky!

Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973

Yesterday at the untamed elder.

Deicide +4 -> +5
Lunar ring +3 -> +4
TT99 neck +3 -> +4
TT99 belt +3 -> +4

4 mirages 4 tienkangs

I wasted another 120 trying to get to +5 on the rings but settled for +4 again. Need moar mirages b:sad

Ohh and grats on the sticky!

DeathBanana - Heavens Tear

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Yay! We gotz a sticky! b:thanks

Hip hip, hooray!
b:victory

Night_Wind_ - Lost City

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Yay! We gotz a sticky! b:thanks

Grats on the sticky.
Its about time too.b:angry

Ursa - Dreamweaver

Brigid - Harshlands wrote: »

No, it's 50% chance to get TO +1. In other words, to go from unrefined to +1. +1 to +2 is 30%, according to his data. That said, you still apparently had a streak of terrible luck.

yeah, My bad, 50% chances to +1.
Hmmm, honestly, as many times as I tried to refine, never, and I mean NEVER happened to get 50/50 to +1.
more like 33%.
I'm not saying the 50% is not true, I'm just saying ppl should not expect to get +1 in 50% of the cases and +2 in 30%.
I used more than 100 mirages to get my ring from 0 to +2. I don't know how the math of 50% to +1 and 30% to +2 fits in there, but it doesn't look good to me.

and yeah, like i've said, it's not first time i'm getting royally screwed at low refines (+1/+2). If that would be the case, meh **** happens, but I tried this many times with many pieces of gear, at diff NPCs (while I was in Calamity on basically the whole map). Same **** luck every single time.

Jennatolls - Lost City

Interesting thread. I have been working on this problem independently and have my own spreadsheet matching the one u created.
I like the idea of using a matrix to compute the odds that u run out of mirages before you meet your goal. Its a better solution than the recursive spreadsheet i created to compute it. Applying eigenvalue decomposition to that matrix would yield a nice closed form solution, I'll do that tomorrow. Anyways, heres the question at hand:

we know how to calculate the odds that u run out of mirages before you meet your goal.
now, how can we calculate the odds that you run out of tisha, tiekeng, OR mirages before you meet your goal?

and a failed solution
we can calculate the odds that we run out of mirages before we meet our goal, and, by a similar method, we can calculate the odds that we run out of each stone before we meet our goal. so the probability that we run out of any of the three should be 1-(1-p1)(1-p2)(1-p3) where p1, p2 and p3 are the odds that we run out of mirages, tisha and tiekeng stones.
This is an incorrect answer however, as the probabilities are NOT independent.

consider this example, we have 1 mirage stone, and one tiekeng stone and our refining strategy is use a tiekeng stone to refine from 0 to 1. clearly this example is not optimal, however it is simply to illustrate why the above approach is invalid. the probability that our refine is successful is .65, so the probability that we run out of mirages before we can get it to +1 is .35 and the probability that we run out of tiekeng stones is also .35, so by the above formula, the probability that we run out of mirages or tiekeng stones would be .5775, but this makes no sense, as we expect the result to be .35. The problem is the odds that we run out of mirages and the odds that we run out of tiekeng stones are not independent, they are the same event.

it may be possible that for large numbers, this approach is asymptotically valid, however, thats not very interesting. Any suggestions on where to proceed from here?

Illyana - Dreamweaver

I can vouche for the authenticity of the work here in this thread. Though I did not keep accurate records, all of my gear (minus my weapons) are +6 or +7 for "dirt cheap".

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Jennatolls - Lost City wrote: »

we know how to calculate the odds that u run out of mirages before you meet your goal.
now, how can we calculate the odds that you run out of tisha, tiekeng, OR mirages before you meet your goal?

I admit that this problem exceeds my math abilities. I've tried various solutions, but I simply don't have the knowledge about how to solve it.

However, I have thought about modifying the Excel spreadsheet to include such a feature in the simulation mode. Rather than running a simulation that goes until you run out of coins, it could be modified to run the simulation until you run out of an essential item. However, my concern with this is that it doesn't really match actual refining practice.

For example, I usually refine until I start get below 200 Mirages, at which point I'll stop at +3. Meanwhile, I just buy Tienkangs or Tisha as I need them from the boutique, so they are effectively unlimited.

Perhaps a mode could be created that roughly mimics this practice. You could enter certain stopping thresholds for your Mirage supply, while treating the other stones as unlimited other than in their cost.

DTK - Dreamweaver

Yesterday after reading this LONG disccussion, I was finally brave enough to give tishas a try and the follwing happened:

Weapon was TT99 ☆Inferno-Heaven Ravager:Souless

I bought it at +3 then went to 1k officer with a total of 27 mirages and 11 tisha stones
First +4 success
+5 fail back to +3
fail back to +2
Success back to+3
+4
fail back to +3
+4
+5
+6
+7 (had a breakdown here lol)
and finally +8!!!!!!!!!!!!


This was also the first time I woke in the middle of the night for the sole purpose of trying to refine 4 am GMT-7 and refining was done at 1k's officer
I don't know if i was just lucky or what, but I just wanted to share my results b:victory

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

DTK - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Yesterday after reading this LONG disccussion, I was finally brave enough to give tishas a try and the follwing happened:

Weapon was TT99 ☆Inferno-Heaven Ravager:Souless

I bought it at +3 then went to 1k officer with a total of 27 mirages and 11 tisha stones
First +4 success
+5 fail back to +3
fail back to +2
Success back to+3
+4
fail back to +3
+4
+5
+6
+7 (had a breakdown here lol)
and finally +8!!!!!!!!!!!!


This was also the first time I woke in the middle of the night for the sole purpose of trying to refine 4 am GMT-7 and refining was done at 1k's officer
I don't know if i was just lucky or what, but I just wanted to share my results b:victory

That's a truly awesome success story! Congratulations!

Plunking your starting resources and refining strategy into the spreadsheet and running 50,000 simulations, it looks like you had about a 2% chance of reaching +8 the way you did. So you hit with about 1 in 50 odds.

deadlypenguin

What i just read in that book, and what alot of people misconstrue are two simple random facts that are "logically" impossible.

1. The a streak of success or failure will result in a turn in the opposite direction. That is called "The Gamblers Fallacy" this cannot be true since each instance has its own independent odds. if it takes you 30 tries to get from 0-+1 you had a 50% chance on try 1, a 50% chance on try 2.. etc.

2. The probability of instance one and instance 2 both happening must be the same(if the odds are all the same) or greater than the instance with the highest odds. If 0-+1 is 50% and +1-+2 is 30% you dont have a 30% chance to get to +2 from 0 you actually have roughly a 15% chance of making it from 0-+2... this explains why it seems so hard to do it for some people. simply look to the analogy of the dice. What are the chances that one die will land on 6 given perfect conditions? 1/6 what are the odds that two die will both land on 6? 1/35. You might be thinking it should be one in 36, but one possibility is removed when rolling two die together because one die cannot be zero.

Hope this helps the people who are trying to plot the statistics of refinement.

Djoulz - Lost City

well the other day, i was trying to refine my HH90 gold sleeves and boots (they were +3 already) at the Arch elder: i had 90 mirages stones,a few tishas and a few tienkang stones too...here is the results:

i burnt ALL the mirages stones and the other ones too...and only managed to reach +3 again b:cryb:cry

so i was asking myself something: does it matter which Elder you go refine too? does it affect the success rate? also do we know for a fact that the higher level the gear, the less success you will have?? i mean wtf: it's like i have the worth luck ever or something