Order placed on January 24th 2021 09:01 PM GMT not filled yet. Anyone want to guess arrival time ?
I keep updating the "frozen ZAX" as I get reports here from arrivals. The last reported arrival was benyr on July 23rd placed on January 22nd. If you click my link I have posted below, it will take you to an online spreadsheet. Progress was keeping within adding +0.6 days per day up until we hit the January 21st orders. That single day added 20 days to the returns. With user benyr, it shows we are starting the long wait to see how long the next day of orders will take to process. Processing the orders has slowed because the vast amount of AD that was freely given to the community for the exchange of bonding runestones.
What I don't know is how much incoming Zen to the exchange has increased or decreased. There are a lot of variables at work, like this new module might increase the purchase of Zen. However that could change nothing, if the users who buy Zen, spend it all and don't feed the ZAX. I have said, this is very unpredictable, just like forecasting weather. If a pattern can be established, then we can predict the outcome for the near future. My best guess, with the current setting, would be sometime in mid August.
Well, there's a mythic account wide mount in the Wondrous Bazaar for 3m AD right now, someone said it will be there up to the 5th August, so that might take some AD out of the ZAX.
Anyway, would be nice to see a legendary account wide companion in there next month.
Line dropped 600k more...66.3 mil. Checked with a few, everyone i asked said theirs flipped from the 23rd finally. Hopefully past that hump.
If people are at least attempting to make the AD for that purchase, the Eclipse Lion will make the most diamonds drop out of ZAX on the last day it's available from people that realise they won't make it.
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,208Arc User
Line dropped 600k more...66.3 mil. Checked with a few, everyone i asked said theirs flipped from the 23rd finally. Hopefully past that hump.
If people are at least attempting to make the AD for that purchase, the Eclipse Lion will make the most diamonds drop out of ZAX on the last day it's available from people that realise they won't make it.
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
However purchase orders removed from the queue will contribute to making the backlog shorter no matter what orders are removed.
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,208Arc User
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
However purchase orders removed from the queue will contribute to making the backlog shorter no matter what orders are removed.
That was why I said "it can reduce Zax size".
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
I have an order placed January 29th that I hope will arrive before my 50% discount coupon expires
Does that item have an expiration time? I haven't pulled it from the store, so I imagine not. It would be awful for a person who depends on discounts, to pull it from the store into inventory and be told, "Use me in 24 hours or I self destruct!".
I was in game asking, if any players have received zen from the exchange. They responded telling me there was a 6 month wait time. I explained that I am not asking for myself, went on to explain about the tracking thread, and finished up telling them the bad news. Posting AD today is a lot longer than 6 months, it is closer to a year now. The people receiving zen today posted 6 months ago.
I don't know if anyone notices the tab at the bottom of my spreadsheet has May through September. If you post August 1st, you have about 300 days assuming this freeze is done anytime soon. I am guessing it is on going and people posting in August will be over a year from now.
Line dropped 600k more...66.3 mil. Checked with a few, everyone i asked said theirs flipped from the 23rd finally. Hopefully past that hump.
If people are at least attempting to make the AD for that purchase, the Eclipse Lion will make the most diamonds drop out of ZAX on the last day it's available from people that realise they won't make it.
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
Now serious question: If I have 2 orders for 5k Zen, how do I find out which one was put up first and which one later?
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,208Arc User
Line dropped 600k more...66.3 mil. Checked with a few, everyone i asked said theirs flipped from the 23rd finally. Hopefully past that hump.
If people are at least attempting to make the AD for that purchase, the Eclipse Lion will make the most diamonds drop out of ZAX on the last day it's available from people that realise they won't make it.
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
Now serious question: If I have 2 orders for 5k Zen, how do I find out which one was put up first and which one later?
As far as I know, you can't. In the old days, when I cared (as when I considered there was a chance I might need to bail out), I put different amount to show the difference.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Line dropped 600k more...66.3 mil. Checked with a few, everyone i asked said theirs flipped from the 23rd finally. Hopefully past that hump.
If people are at least attempting to make the AD for that purchase, the Eclipse Lion will make the most diamonds drop out of ZAX on the last day it's available from people that realise they won't make it.
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
Now serious question: If I have 2 orders for 5k Zen, how do I find out which one was put up first and which one later?
As far as I know, you can't. In the old days, when I cared (as when I considered there was a chance I might need to bail out), I put different amount to show the difference.
To be honest, I always assumed you would be able to look up your old data log. How long does it maintain these logs found at the bottom (see my image for reference) ?
I thought one could scroll down to find which posted but you can also see from my posted amounts 1 to 5 posted in that order the amounts are not in sync they run 4, 3, 2, 1 and 5 at the bottom. If you cannot access your log, why even bother having a detailed transaction log? After looking this over, I removed all 5 postings.
Now serious question: If I have 2 orders for 5k Zen, how do I find out which one was put up first and which one later?
You don't. And if you try it out by putting up offers for different amounts you'll see the game doesn't list them in order. Best thing to do would be to put up orders of 5000,4999,4998,4997,4996 and keep a note of which is which if you think you might have to take one down at some point.
How long does it maintain these logs found at the bottom (see my image for reference) ?
As far as I know it always stays, but it'll only be readable on the first character you log in on. Logging all the way out and back in resets that, so you don't need to worry about keeping track, just check on the first character you log in on. (others will just say "you have never made an offer")
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,208Arc User
To be honest, I always assumed you would be able to look up your old data log. How long does it maintain these logs found at the bottom (see my image for reference) ?
I don't know if it is limited by number of transaction or time.
In the log, my earliest transaction id shown is 219 (9/14/2018) and the latest transaction id is 264 (7/16/2021).
If my transaction log is "empty" and I want to see it, I need to exit the program and come back in.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
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louchristanMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 50Arc User
edited August 2021
Placed 5 orders around 1:00pm in Jan/23/2021 and got through in July/30/2021 around the same time. Spend them all in seconds on my new Bard, had many bugs leveling her up to level 20 and got stuck in Workshop progress. As long time player with 28 toons I used to spend thousands of real dollars playing this game since I had had some fun. Not any more,since I am having no fun now and I am not spending a dime unless they make the game fun to play again.
> @louchristan said: > Placed 5 orders around 1:00pm in Jan/23/2021 and got through in July/30/2021 around the same time. Spend them all in seconds on my new Bard, had may bugs leveling her up to level 20 and got stuck in Workshop progress. As long time player with 28 toons I used to spend thousands of real dollars playing this game since I had had some fun. Not any more,since I am having no fun now and I am not spending a dime unless they make the game fun to play again.
Well those two orders appears the ZAX has thawed out some. Maybe tracking will return to +0.6 days per day. I have placed those on the spreadsheet and it shows how dumping AD on this community increase delay by +33 days with only 4 days worth of orders. This game is in need of AD sinks.
If Jared (aka @noworries#8859 ) would care for my input, I heard someone say you are hesitant about adding items worth millions of AD into the store. Place items priced at millions of AD in that shop of yours. I know you have to show a profit. You cannot allow a bunch of YouTubers sway the player's opinion of real value or worth. I would recommend older currently unavailable items placed in there, weapons, armors, companions, and mounts that are no longer available in the auction. Players will buy old weapon skins, armors for vanity, and other nostalgia. Maybe have your art department work up some spellscar and undead character skins for players. Place them in the AD only section and people will buy zen to get AD to purchase those skins. It is a win win.
Meanwhile players need to remember this is player to player trading of AD and Zen, Cryptic is only offering it as a fringe benefit and nothing more. Trading AD and Zen doesn't make the game free to play. Freedom to play means you didn't have to buy it or pay a subscription. I hope to keep tracking this but I have things that need to be done, so I might not be able to keep on top of this as much as I have. I will probably be busy for the next month or two.
Remember, no problems only solutions! See you later.
Well those two orders appears the ZAX has thawed out some. Maybe tracking will return to +0.6 days per day. I have placed those on the spreadsheet and it shows how dumping AD on this community increase delay by +33 days with only 4 days worth of orders. This game is in need of AD sinks.
With queue stable or even falling a little we should soon be at no daily increase in wait time. In a stable situation AD in must equal AD out.
The recent fall of 5-6M on the ZAX queue likely is due to the rush of Bonding orders not being replaced as they are fulfilled. I assume the regular ZAX customers generally replace 1 for 1 in their 5 slots.
If Jared (aka @noworries#8859 ) would care for my input, I heard someone say you are hesitant about adding items worth millions of AD into the store.
And well they should be. If something sells well for AD it could sell well for Zen too. So it is not easy.
Astral lockboxes probably is the main example we have of a big AD drain today, and those certainly have cost Cryptic a bit in key sales. The Eclipse lion also probably could do well in the Zen store.
The best way to handle the ZAX queue probably is to reduce the influx of AD in game. Much of the growth in the ZAX queue came when they started giving out pure AD as rewards for some quests etc(It think it was with Avernus?) That basically undermined the 100k per day limit. Less AD in game compared to what you need also should lead to increased Zen sales to impatient people.
I however think that is exactly what is happening with the new Advanced Dungeon queue. As the dungeons in that are long(so less people having time to try) and hard(so less people having sufficient gear and higher failrate), the RAD generated from that is likely to be significantly less than from the old REDQ. Without running RADQ you will struggle to fill your daily 100k quota.
The recent fall of 5-6M on the ZAX queue likely is due to the rush of Bonding orders not being replaced as they are fulfilled. I assume the regular ZAX customers generally replace 1 for 1 in their 5 slots.
Yes, the recent fall in backlog is most likely due to not replacing the old orders - those one time ZAX customers due to the Bonging AD miracle. The other obvious option lays in those who used to send their AD straight to ZAX are now being stuck in the waiting time.
The fact that the waiting time is still increasing is because the amount of Zen coming to ZAX is dropping even faster than the influx of AD.
The best way to handle the ZAX queue probably is to reduce the influx of AD in game. Much of the growth in the ZAX queue came when they started giving out pure AD as rewards for some quests etc(It think it was with Avernus?) That basically undermined the 100k per day limit. Less AD in game compared to what you need also should lead to increased Zen sales to impatient people.
Well, the most sure-fire method to reduce the backlog magnitude is surely to eliminate AD income. But the only way to reduce the ZAX waiting time is to actually have a fully functional AD economy. Bound items are limiting AH cuts, mount upgrades are missing AD path, wards... As long as I know my only/significantly cheaper way to purchase something is through Zen shop, I will be interested in spending AD for Zen. Long waiting time actually helps Zen purchases in a certain way... do I want to wait 6 months? Nah...
Oh, that brings to my mind one funny way how to fix ZAX resellers: limit the Zen ZAX ballance to -50k Zen per year. That is what we realistically have now anyway. (5x5k Zen twice a year)
i think ZAX resellers are biggest problem with ZAX, why not just make another currency for ZAX , something like BZEN(bound zen) so everything you buy without using real money(ZEN) from zen market are bound to account so it would only be bought to use, not resell
@veteraani The core ZAX resellers are pretty much fixed by the backlog now. That is actually the noisiest part of the community shouting "the backlog must be fixed" - you cannot do much with just 50k Zen turnaround per year. (the small players that got hurt by the backlog badly are usually just sad - and do not voice it)
Line around 66 mil, it is dropping a few 100k per day. Curious to see when orders from 26th start to hit, since orders from 24th are arriving. Prob 3 big reasons line dropping. People that posted in Jan due to instant AD from bondings, were 1 time posters. People needing/wanting insignia's upgraded, is moving the line some. And the eclipse lion is a good sink, caused people to yank listings, and flip zen to AD to get the 2.25-3 mil AD. I'm encouraged since the line has dropped over 5 mil, a little more and thats 10%. Hopefully, they can keep putting things on bazaar to keep things moving.
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,208Arc User
Mod 21 has dumped ~500000 rAD (~750000 rAD if times right with AD bonus) per character who finished all the adventures in the journal. Yes, it is rAD but it is still a significant amount of AD that is brand new to the economy for doing nothing (or next to nothing).
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Mod 21 has dumped ~500000 rAD (~750000 rAD if times right with AD bonus) per character who finished all the adventures in the journal. Yes, it is rAD but it is still a significant amount of AD that is brand new to the economy for doing nothing (or next to nothing).
Brand new? Most players already refine 100k per day, and have huge amounts of RAD too. All the free RAD does is stack onto existing RAD, gives people that are lazy a few days of getting the 100k, or allows people to avoid the randoms for a week if they have no RAD stacked up.
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kalina311Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 2,082Arc User
Line dropped 600k more...66.3 mil. Checked with a few, everyone i asked said theirs flipped from the 23rd finally. Hopefully past that hump.
If people are at least attempting to make the AD for that purchase, the Eclipse Lion will make the most diamonds drop out of ZAX on the last day it's available from people that realise they won't make it.
If some indeed drop out their posting from Zax, they will not choose the transaction they posted in Jan. They will choose those posted for much later day unless they do not think straight. In short, it can reduce Zax size but the 'dropout' will not speed up those posted in Jan.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
Now serious question: If I have 2 orders for 5k Zen, how do I find out which one was put up first and which one later?
thats why i post my exchanges at 5000 ,4999 ,4998 ,4997 zen ect, so i can track the orders and know which one(s) to cancel in reverse chronological posting order in case i need the ads ,,, and don't get screwed by accidentally canceling the bid/offer that was closer to the beginning of the zen line and fulfilled sooner
P.s yeah i have a little extra lose zen lying around to cover the extra 1,2,3 zen missing to round the amounts whole after they come in for purchases ..,
Comments
What I don't know is how much incoming Zen to the exchange has increased or decreased. There are a lot of variables at work, like this new module might increase the purchase of Zen. However that could change nothing, if the users who buy Zen, spend it all and don't feed the ZAX. I have said, this is very unpredictable, just like forecasting weather. If a pattern can be established, then we can predict the outcome for the near future. My best guess, with the current setting, would be sometime in mid August.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Anyway, would be nice to see a legendary account wide companion in there next month.
However, It can speed up those posted in Jan if people uses Zen to buy AD from Zax because of the lion.
I was in game asking, if any players have received zen from the exchange. They responded telling me there was a 6 month wait time. I explained that I am not asking for myself, went on to explain about the tracking thread, and finished up telling them the bad news. Posting AD today is a lot longer than 6 months, it is closer to a year now. The people receiving zen today posted 6 months ago.
I don't know if anyone notices the tab at the bottom of my spreadsheet has May through September. If you post August 1st, you have about 300 days assuming this freeze is done anytime soon. I am guessing it is on going and people posting in August will be over a year from now.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I thought one could scroll down to find which posted but you can also see from my posted amounts 1 to 5 posted in that order the amounts are not in sync they run 4, 3, 2, 1 and 5 at the bottom. If you cannot access your log, why even bother having a detailed transaction log? After looking this over, I removed all 5 postings.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
In the log, my earliest transaction id shown is 219 (9/14/2018) and the latest transaction id is 264 (7/16/2021).
If my transaction log is "empty" and I want to see it, I need to exit the program and come back in.
> Placed 5 orders around 1:00pm in Jan/23/2021 and got through in July/30/2021 around the same time. Spend them all in seconds on my new Bard, had may bugs leveling her up to level 20 and got stuck in Workshop progress. As long time player with 28 toons I used to spend thousands of real dollars playing this game since I had had some fun. Not any more,since I am having no fun now and I am not spending a dime unless they make the game fun to play again.
It will never be. Trust me.
Well those two orders appears the ZAX has thawed out some. Maybe tracking will return to +0.6 days per day. I have placed those on the spreadsheet and it shows how dumping AD on this community increase delay by +33 days with only 4 days worth of orders. This game is in need of AD sinks.
If Jared (aka @noworries#8859 ) would care for my input, I heard someone say you are hesitant about adding items worth millions of AD into the store. Place items priced at millions of AD in that shop of yours. I know you have to show a profit. You cannot allow a bunch of YouTubers sway the player's opinion of real value or worth. I would recommend older currently unavailable items placed in there, weapons, armors, companions, and mounts that are no longer available in the auction. Players will buy old weapon skins, armors for vanity, and other nostalgia. Maybe have your art department work up some spellscar and undead character skins for players. Place them in the AD only section and people will buy zen to get AD to purchase those skins. It is a win win.
Meanwhile players need to remember this is player to player trading of AD and Zen, Cryptic is only offering it as a fringe benefit and nothing more. Trading AD and Zen doesn't make the game free to play. Freedom to play means you didn't have to buy it or pay a subscription. I hope to keep tracking this but I have things that need to be done, so I might not be able to keep on top of this as much as I have. I will probably be busy for the next month or two.
Remember, no problems only solutions! See you later.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
The recent fall of 5-6M on the ZAX queue likely is due to the rush of Bonding orders not being replaced as they are fulfilled. I assume the regular ZAX customers generally replace 1 for 1 in their 5 slots. And well they should be. If something sells well for AD it could sell well for Zen too. So it is not easy.
Astral lockboxes probably is the main example we have of a big AD drain today, and those certainly have cost Cryptic a bit in key sales. The Eclipse lion also probably could do well in the Zen store.
The best way to handle the ZAX queue probably is to reduce the influx of AD in game. Much of the growth in the ZAX queue came when they started giving out pure AD as rewards for some quests etc(It think it was with Avernus?) That basically undermined the 100k per day limit. Less AD in game compared to what you need also should lead to increased Zen sales to impatient people.
I however think that is exactly what is happening with the new Advanced Dungeon queue. As the dungeons in that are long(so less people having time to try) and hard(so less people having sufficient gear and higher failrate), the RAD generated from that is likely to be significantly less than from the old REDQ. Without running RADQ you will struggle to fill your daily 100k quota.
The fact that the waiting time is still increasing is because the amount of Zen coming to ZAX is dropping even faster than the influx of AD. Well, the most sure-fire method to reduce the backlog magnitude is surely to eliminate AD income. But the only way to reduce the ZAX waiting time is to actually have a fully functional AD economy. Bound items are limiting AH cuts, mount upgrades are missing AD path, wards... As long as I know my only/significantly cheaper way to purchase something is through Zen shop, I will be interested in spending AD for Zen.
Long waiting time actually helps Zen purchases in a certain way... do I want to wait 6 months? Nah...
Oh, that brings to my mind one funny way how to fix ZAX resellers: limit the Zen ZAX ballance to -50k Zen per year. That is what we realistically have now anyway. (5x5k Zen twice a year)
(the small players that got hurt by the backlog badly are usually just sad - and do not voice it)
P.s yeah i have a little extra lose zen lying around to cover the extra 1,2,3 zen missing to round the amounts whole after they come in for purchases ..,