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ZAX - Duration Testing

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  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,924 Arc User
    edited March 10
    Well, listing was filled yesterday, 116 days.

    other listings:
    + 1/19/2021
    + 1/26/2021
    + 2/2/2021
    + 2/12/2021
    + 3/3/2021
    and i guess those will either be done close to or more likely beyond the 6 months mark...
    Post edited by regenerde on
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 455 Arc User
    I live in the apartment building with @hotfrostworm saw him in the hall and asked how he based his guestimation of those days. His formula was based on this data;
    Plastic gave the oldest posting of 7/18/20 and the last real received by Namelesshero of 2/26/21 and posted 11/3/20, then figured the days between postings a total of 108 between Plastic and Namelesshero. Next the value in days 115 - 50 = 65 additional days over the 108 day difference comes to +0.6 days per day between posts.

    I don't know if that formula sounds right to me? I didn't do well in algebra class. :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 334 Arc User
    The forum said you took your landlord's handle in vain... should I raise your rent? :mask: Are all of you still "sick" in there, don't forget to clean up the bodies before they get ripe. All I have is a minor cough now and then, I had worse.

    I see that thanks to regenerde has posted new data, so I plugged this into my spreadsheet for my new forecast.

    11/6/20 to 3/2/21 - 116 days waited this was his new data.
    11/12/20 to 3/11/21 - 119
    11/17/20 to 3/18/21 - 121
    12/2/20 to 4/9/21 - 128
    1/19/21 to 6/20/21 - 152
    1/26/21 to 7/1/21 - 156
    2/2/21 to 7/12/21 - 160
    3/3/21 to 8/24/21 - 174

    The more data you have the better you can predict trends and get a more accurate forecast.
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,256 Arc User
    edited March 4
    The method we have been using earlier to estimate wait times is amount of Zen processed each day.

    It previously used to be at around 0.5M Zen/day. However, looking at the data above, it seems to be significantly lower now, down towards 0.35M Zen/day. (I think queue at 11/6 was around 40M)

    With 0.35 M/day processing rate, a post today at 68.2M Zen queue length will take 195 days to process.

    I did not note down queue lengths for my currently active posts, so I am unable to provide accurate processing rate numbers. If anyone got information on the length of the queue when a completed order was posted, that would be very interesting.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,817 Arc User
    edited March 4
    ---
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • motu999#9953 motu999 Member Posts: 254 Arc User
    edited March 4
    The problem with the ZAX backlog is the following:
    - people with money to spend need to have an incentive to buy AD from ZEN
    - this requires that certain high value items are only available for AD from other players, but not available by ZEN
    - in the past, these high value items were mostly legendary mounts from lockboxes and max level enchantments (including Bonding Runestones).

    In the past the drop rate for leg mounts was so low, that it was safer for most of us to buy the leg mount you wanted with AD, instead of buying 1000 keys directly with ZEN and hoping that the rng would not have a bad streak. For the old lockboxes you needed ~1000 keys on average for a leg mount. Thats roughly 100k ZEN, e.g. 75 Mio AD. But if you had bad luck, you might spend 400k ZEN and still don't get a leg mount. This meant: When the AD cost for a leg mount was considerably lower than 75 Mio, it was "safer" to buy the mount from the AH, than to test your luck with lockbox keys bought with ZEN.

    Recently all of this changed:
    First, bonding rune stones are gone and high rank enchantments are practically worthless
    Second, we are now better off getting our leg and mythic mounts from lockboxes, than from the AH:

    - we now have account-wide mounts, so no leg mounts for alts needed
    - drop rates are 5 times better, so only 200 keys on average for the account-wide mythic mount
    - EDIT: 200 keys still cost 15 Mio AD, three times the cost of a mythic mount on AH (~4.5 Mio AD now), but the new lockboxes give so much other useful stuff, that it is worthwhile to buy the keys.

    Its a no-brainer: buying keys directly with ZEN and taking your chance with the rng is likely more profitable, than converting ZEN to AD and buying a mythic mount from the AH.

    Of course there are other items that are obtainable only from players via the AH, e.g. through AD.
    But currently players that have money to spend are far better off, buying stuff directly from ZEN (including lockbox keys), than converting their AD to ZEN. As long as this remains to be so, the ZAX will take longer and longer.

    Bottom line: To "fix" the ZAX backlog, one needs highly sought after, very rare items, that make a big difference in effectiveness, and are only obtainable through gameplay, and that can be sold to other players through the AH. Only then will the very rich players buy ZEN, convert it to AD to get their super duper bis item from some (also very rich) endgame player. Of course, this creates problems of its own, namely a very exclusive caste of extremely AD-rich end-game players that farm the high value items, plus a caste of $-rich players that buy their way up to bis. All others will struggle and will have to be content with the scraps.
  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,924 Arc User
    edited March 4
    Well, all they have to do is improve the Wondrous Bazaar, right now the only items in it worth buying are the MoPs during sales, and the Astral Lockboxes when they're back in there, the "Special Items" tab is a bloody joke.

    I mean no offense, but the whole thing feels like it was designed by someone, that doesn't even know the game.

    Anyway, i don't get it, they see that a balanced exchange for ingame currency and real money is working fine in STO and CO, but they don't want (?) to do the same here...
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • thany#4351 thany Member Posts: 200 Arc User
    edited March 4
    Well they can offer stack of pres. wards for 1 M on WB... There's still some money for resellers and list goes on... Snow mentioned something about AD sink in yesterday's stream. So we'll see.
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 455 Arc User
    @hotfrostworm thanks for the update, yes we are still alive here. As for what he was talking about, we had a Superbowl LV party in our apartment and now we are all Covid infected. I was the last to show symptoms and the CDC says 10 days to 2 weeks. Do you honestly I would be talking to people in the hallway, if I were still contagious? :lol:

    Thanks for the update on your predictions, did you do as I suggested and use the Tarot Cards or consult with a psychic? :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • darthpotaterdarthpotater Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,116 Arc User


    ...
    Bottom line: To "fix" the ZAX backlog, one needs highly sought after, very rare items, that make a big difference in effectiveness, and are only obtainable through gameplay, and that can be sold to other players through the AH. Only then will the very rich players buy ZEN, convert it to AD to get their super duper bis item from some (also very rich) endgame player. Of course, this creates problems of its own, namely a very exclusive caste of extremely AD-rich end-game players that farm the high value items, plus a caste of $-rich players that buy their way up to bis. All others will struggle and will have to be content with the scraps.

    Thats why T3 gear and other gear obtained in the game should be unbound. Also, items like preservation wards should be in the bazaar, not in the zen store.
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  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,924 Arc User
    edited March 5
    Well, i'd prefer to see some good epic companions as single and account-wide versions in the Wondrous Bazaar, just package up all the fashion items and move them to a new NPC located in the Moonstone mask, that should create more then enough free space, and then rotate at least one really expensive companion through the special tab every month.

    Another reliable option for increasing the companion bolster, and AD gets removed from the game, win-win.
    Post edited by regenerde on
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,817 Arc User
    Nov 7, 2020 posting. Received today (March 5, 2021)
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 334 Arc User
    @plasticbat thank you for the data.

    With this scant amount of data, I am seeing a growth of 3 to 4 days wait for each week in the Zen Exchange. Which means by April, unless something changes to promote growth in the other direction, players will be at 6 months wait time. @blargskull could see his 10 zen sometime around mid August.

    Hopefully there is a person working at Cryptic that understands what I am about to tell them; Should they desire to PM me I am not a blabber mouth and I can and will discuss more details in private without the need of a non-disclosure agreement. The solutions presented here such as moving wards doesn't really make Cryptic money but it is a partial solution. So far they have attempted to lure players to buy items with AD, such as the keyless loot box. It takes your YouTubers no time at all to figure the odds and toss a wet blanket on these objectives.

    This is just one of many examples to boost sales of Zen and at the same time sink the AD. I know you made a temporary companion of Knox available in the Auction House but not the AD market (Wondrous Bazaar). These sold for high amounts of AD as they were legendary but failed because only a few were offered. You need to offer a constant account wide companion and mount at legendary or above that is unique to the game. These could have the price tag of 25,000,000 AD for legendary and 100,000,000 AD for mythic. These are only offered in your Wondrous Bazaar and no where else. These unique mounts and companions would have a Zen store equipment only available for a short time and Bound to Account, not for resale. The companion's 3 slots could contain the standard rings and items found in Stardock but only these items "sold in a bundle" would work for the companions giving an edge. The mounts would have a bundle of collars and again limited time only so players who have want both the custom companion and/or mount would need to pull AD from the exchange and open the wallet to buy them their customized items.

    I know some players may say 25 million and 100 million are too high, maybe this is too high I don't know, but considering what I have read on these forums, there are players with billions of AD. The Zen Exchange is almost to 70 million Zen and simple math of 750 tells us that is 52.5 billion AD. Only Cryptic would know how to adjust these prices. The most one account can post is 5 times 5,000 for a total of 25,000 Zen. Are we to assume that there are 2800 account maxed out? @blargskull and a few other players have expressed they never or seldom use this Zen Exchange. Are we to believe the player base is only a few thousand people? I am not the one sitting at Cryptic with those answers and stats.

    This notion is not an original thought, it stems from what my father told me years ago. A tailor has a sale on pants 80% selling them below cost. The competition cannot offer these price cuts and asks how they can do this? Simple, before the sale I raised the prices on jackets, shirts, ties, and hats. Customers can just walk out the door with pants, but since they are here, they buy accessories!

    I would suggest as an example; AD only Minsc companion can wear rings, neck, waist items or get the zen bundle with Boo, personal sword, and armor. The AD rich player could sink AD on this and still buy the bundle. Meanwhile Cryptic makes money off the accessories. Are they needed? Not really, they want them.
  • tamtoucantamtoucan Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 37 Arc User
    Oct 19 105 days
    However one of the listings (2k) still hasn't come through. Also another data point, the backlog was 39kk at the time
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 455 Arc User
    I think they claimed the PC population was 15,000 back before module 6. I don't recall the exact wording on that video or where you can find it. Let's go with it and assume... 40% less playing today? 15,000 - 40% = 6,000. I would say spreading 70 million out over 6,000 would be an average of 11,667 Zen. My posting is way below the average. :trollface:

    @hotfrostworm yes, I think you are high, but that is another story. I do agree though, selling accessories in the zen store would be a great idea. But why bound to account? If I buy them, resell them for AD, the AD is taken from another player and not generated magically by the game. If I purchase them for cash, it makes a profit, but if I am sitting on a stack of traded zen there is no profit. What they really need is a cash only store, a store that takes my money and doesn't convert it to zen or any other virtual currency. Cash in and item out, done deal.

    Now I am wondering what happens, if I get that big 10 zen payout before June?!

    Just killing time...
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,817 Arc User
    edited March 6

    But why bound to account? If I buy them, resell them for AD, the AD is taken from another player and not generated magically by the game. If I purchase them for cash, it makes a profit, but if I am sitting on a stack of traded zen there is no profit. What they really need is a cash only store, a store that takes my money and doesn't convert it to zen or any other virtual currency. Cash in and item out, done deal.

    Allowing it to sell in AH is one of the root reasons why Zax wait time is long.

    People is doing that in loop to earn AD.

    Earn N amount of AD to buy X amount of Zen. Use Zen to buy Zen store item, K.
    Sell K in AH to earn N+n amount of AD. Use N+n AD to buy X+x Zen. Use Zen to buy more K from Zen store.
    Sell K+ in AH to earn N+n+m amount of AD. Use N+n+m AD to buy X+x+y Zen. Use Zen to buy more K from Zen store.
    Keep looping.

    The amount of AD pumping to Zax keeps increasing in each cycle for one person.
    Yes, cash only store can help but that also mean there is no point to have Zen store and Zax.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • thany#4351 thany Member Posts: 200 Arc User
    edited March 6
    It looks like it "grows" much faster now. 200K zen requests up per day for 2 days in a row. As people get free "slot(s)" they put ad from bondings... And inflation in combination with resellers from zen market. Only sky is the limit now. And there's no ad sink. I fear that 6 months is too optimistic. We will get to 8 months minimum very soon.
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,256 Arc User
    tamtoucan said:

    Oct 19 105 days

    However one of the listings (2k) still hasn't come through. Also another data point, the backlog was 39kk at the time

    So 0.37M/day processing rate.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 334 Arc User
    edited March 7
    @mentinmindmaker problem is this doesn't hang on the per day value. It seems to fluctuate up and down but seldom in the negative needed to change the results.

    It sort of reminds me of the, old program we wrote back in the day, "Heads or Tails" betting game. The system is you consistently bet on heads to win. You bet $1 and if you lose, you double your next bet. If you win, you return to $1 bets. After about 40 plays you could be up to $100 but if the loses run in a streak, you could be in the hole in as little as 7 loses in a row (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128).

    The unpredictable variables here are players who are willing to contribute their zen to the pool. The 370K processing rate would need to rise up to 1 million per day to just be at 68 days or 2 million per day for 34 days. One million zen would be $10,000 per day of zen dumped into the ZAX. If the player base is 6,000 as Mr. blargskull suggested that would only be $2 per player, if they wanted to eliminate the backlog on their own. Unfortunately they offer nothing of real value in the AD store.

  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,924 Arc User
    Well, it would be interesting to know what the official thoughts on the Wondrous Bazaar and the ZAX are, and if they have planned anything to actually help the players within the next few months... and by helping i mean a lot more then another increase of the ZAX cap.
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,256 Arc User
    edited March 7

    @mentinmindmaker problem is this doesn't hang on the per day value. It seems to fluctuate up and down but seldom in the negative needed to change the results.

    I have been watching the Zen processed per day for a long time, and it seems to be a fairly stable way to measure what is going on with the Zax, including using it to estimate completion times.

    It will however fluctuate some over time, but the changes are fairly slow except for disruptive events like the AD paid for Bondings.

    Way back it was at 0.7-0.8, now it seems down towards 0.35. This fluctuation probably is mostly caused by changes in the game environment. Currently I think it is being pushed down by the high prices for Zen items in AH itself, as it obviously is better to buy Zen items and sell than trading Zen for AD directly. You got a positive feedback loop there: High prices in AH makes people not trade in Zen in the ZAX which makes less items available in the AH which makes prices higher.
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 455 Arc User
    I want to thank everyone for keeping this a polite conversation, I really haven't used the ZAX here for a very long time. I remember posting back when it was 500:1 ratio. Otherwise I was only using it to transfer AD to other characters. It is a good thing they put the shared AD bank in there for us.

    @hotfrostworm are you making a sheet on your PC or something you can share with us on Google Docs?

    Just killing time...
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 334 Arc User
    edited March 8
    It is on my HD but I will clone it to Google later today.

    It is later... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1687VTrtZPKA2vnIHwu4Neihn2HAPnxhjgGpBxRaONW4/edit?usp=sharing
    Post edited by hotfrostworm on
  • theelusiveone#4954 theelusiveone Member Posts: 110 Arc User
    Another data point if you can use it.
    Posted listing for 1000 Zen Nov. 10th 2020, received Zen Mar. 9th 2021 = 119 days.
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  • tepes#1182 tepes Member Posts: 37 Arc User
    Five orders posted on 11/7 came through on 3/4.
  • mamalion1234mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,360 Arc User
    edited March 11
    so for me posted them 15/11 when they will come ? 14 or 15 or 16 march?
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 455 Arc User

    so for me posted them 15/11 when they will come ? 14 or 15 or 16 march?

    @hotfrostworm is predicting on the spread sheet an order posted on November 12th arriving tomorrow, I will check in with them tomorrow for sure. And November 17th on March 18th.

    As far as I know, he is using an OuiJa Board and magic aura crystals. :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 307 Arc User
    To help here are a friend + my personnal data since july (date are in dd/mm/yyyy format)

    Date purchase order | Player | Qty | Date delivery

    06/03/21 | Tchefi | 5000 | ???
    12/01/21 | Tchefi | 5000 | ???
    30/12/20 | Tchefi | 4000 | ???
    25/12/20 | Magnus | 5000 | ???
    14/12/20 | Magnus | 5000 | ???
    14/12/20 | Magnus | 5000 | ???
    14/12/20 | Tchefi | 3000 | ???
    29/11/20 | Magnus | 5000 | ???
    29/11/20 | Tchefi | 4000 | ???
    27/11/20 | Magnus | 5000 | ???
    08/11/20 | Tchefi | 5000 | 06/03/21
    02/10/20 | Tchefi | 5000 | 03/01/21
    17/09/20 | Tchefi | 5000 | 02/12/20
    16/09/20 | Magnus | 2000 | 01/12/20
    12/09/20 | Magnus | 5000 | 26/11/20
    11/09/20 | Tchefi | 5000 | 24/11/20
    09/09/20 Tchefi | 5000 | 22/11/20
    20/08/20 Tchefi | 5000 | 25/10/20
    04/08/20 Tchefi | 4000 | 02/10/20
    25/07/20 Tchefi | 3000 | 17/09/20
    23/07/20 Tchefi | 4000 | 11/09/20
    21/07/20 Tchefi | 5000 | 09/09/20
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 334 Arc User

    so for me posted them 15/11 when they will come ? 14 or 15 or 16 march?

    @hotfrostworm is predicting on the spread sheet an order posted on November 12th arriving tomorrow, I will check in with them tomorrow for sure. And November 17th on March 18th.

    As far as I know, he is using an OuiJa Board and magic aura crystals. :trollface:
    No, I have each player drink tea, spit into the bottom of cup, and break a raw egg... after casting the chicken bones (which tell me nothing) I throw the dart at the number board on the wall. Forecasting is like the weather, you take 100 days with the same pressure, temp., etc. and state. Then review out of the 100 days, how many times it rained/snowed and you have a percentage chance. A day 30% chance of rain doesn't say it won't, just unlikely. :lol:

    @tchefi#6735 Wendy watched the video and thought that was wonderful. Thanks for posting values, but I am going on the concept quantity don't or should not matter. Imagine you are at the bank in a serious long line and only one teller cage open. Mr. Blargskull steps in the door and wants to deposit his 7,500 for 10Ȼ, the teller flags him to the front of the line. That would be a broken way to conduct customer service. But he did want to test it, so he placed that tiny amount. I figure if he gets his 10 Zen before August there is something wrong or players really demand for AD over zen.

  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 455 Arc User
    @hotfrostworm I spoke to the player online who has the zen posted on November 12th, they said as of 4 PM EST it has not arrived... better check your weather chart old man! :trollface:

    Back on page 1, I predicted this;

    11/6/20 on 3/4/21 = 118 days
    11/12/20 on 3/16/21 = 124 days
    11/17/20 on 3/25/21 = 128 days

    11/6/20 arrived on 3/2/21, 116 days. I was over by +2 days. As I see it, you have 5 hours and 20 minutes remaining.... tick tock!

    Just killing time...
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