Damn, you punks don't listen for ****. I didn't use my keys for ships. I used my keys to obtain Lobi. Don't give a **** about a ship, but the **** point, you ignorant motherfuckers, is, I didn't see a ship in 577 **** lockboxes. 2 years time, I know wtf I'm doing, it just comes down to a, you advertise ships in lockboxes, yet you don't actually give ships in **** lockboxes... i mean, wtf ever, you ignorant mofos go on bout your business, I only got so much room for stupidity.
Even with this unbelievable rant, even if you only got 4 lobi per box(and that's lowballing) you'd of gotten well over 2k lobi, so crying you got nothing when you get lobi EVERY SINGLE BOX, with a rant this stupid, just WOW.
Star Trek Battles member. Want to roll with a good group of people regardless of fleets and not have to worry about DPS while doing STFs? Come join the channel and join in the fun!
Damn, you punks don't listen for ****. I didn't use my keys for ships. I used my keys to obtain Lobi. Don't give a **** about a ship, but the **** point, you ignorant motherfuckers, is, I didn't see a ship in 577 **** lockboxes. 2 years time, I know wtf I'm doing, it just comes down to a, you advertise ships in lockboxes, yet you don't actually give ships in **** lockboxes... i mean, wtf ever, you ignorant mofos go on bout your business, I only got so much room for stupidity.
Wait... who is more ignorant here? The people unimpressed with rank stupidity, or the person who thought they'd get sympathy for announcing their rank stupidity?
It's GAMBLING you moron. Bad luck? Maybe God hates you (certainly the rest of us are starting to...)? Take your pick. But you could open 2000 boxes without getting a ship and still not be wildly outside the norm. Opening more boxes will not guarantee results. EVER.
Damn, you punks don't listen for ****. I didn't use my keys for ships. I used my keys to obtain Lobi. Don't give a **** about a ship, but the **** point, you ignorant motherfuckers, is, I didn't see a ship in 577 **** lockboxes. 2 years time, I know wtf I'm doing, it just comes down to a, you advertise ships in lockboxes, yet you don't actually give ships in **** lockboxes... i mean, wtf ever, you ignorant mofos go on bout your business, I only got so much room for stupidity.
Wait... who is more ignorant here? The people unimpressed with rank stupidity, or the person who thought they'd get sympathy for announcing their rank stupidity?
It's GAMBLING you ****.
With that person:
Star Trek Battles member. Want to roll with a good group of people regardless of fleets and not have to worry about DPS while doing STFs? Come join the channel and join in the fun!
Yes, yes. Stupidity is eternal. But, ignorance can be cured. And thinking that 577 is a meaningful sample size in a 1:200 scenario is IGNORANT.
Hell, I've probably personally taken a bite out of nekofury's luck, since I've gotten THREE grand prize ships for less than 200 keys when I did my big push on the Kelvin Lockboxes.
Of course the boxes drop ships - that's how ships get onto the exchange to be bought by folks who don't like RNG. That they haven't dropped for one particular mouthy, whinny twit is not news. Or something that needs to be shared. Or something that anyone should think will result in anything other than complete mockery.
I had a different experience to the ones discussed in this thread.
I needed lobi for the Delphic Weapons set and I knew the odds were bad for a ship, but figured I'd get one because the odds for above 4 lobi being rewarded are worse.
I'd say out of all the keys I used maybe 3 or 4 boxes gave out more than 4 lobi.
I did get the Sphere Dreadnought however (thanks) and one box gave me 50 lobi! That made me sit back.
Of course I sold all the stuff I didn't want and bought further keys over 3 days to get the lobi I needed for the set after I used up the $20 in zen I originally invested.
Like the OP I was factoring a ship as a bonus instead opening boxes for the lobbi , universal upgrades, and the the ability to open weapon boxes on low level characters to efficiently epic them.
I still have never got a ship, have never gotten one on STO PC, or even gotten a mount out of Neverwinters boxes on PC after having opened roughly the same amount on each but no more than double.
Eventually I will get one for the first time and I'll go buy a lottery ticket on the way to a casino. Until then I will continue to occasionally open boxes.
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
The point for the OP, if you read it, and did not just 'Break Glass and use these lines in case of a Lockbox Thread', was the Lockboxes were opened for different reasons but the observation was NO SHIP for 577 Keys.
Save the 'OP obviously doesn't understand statistics and probability, blah, blah, blah. The point was really, for $551.61 (956 Zen for 10 Keys) it IS unreasonable for there to be NO Ship regardless of whether the OP was looking for a Ship or not.
Not to sound tin-foil hatty, but it's almost as if the Casino had shaved down the wall on the Double Zero Well by one-hundredth of a millimetre on the Roulette Wheel to skew results more favorably for the 'House'. We don't know what Cryptic uses to seed the pseudo-random numbers generated.
As far as Admiralty Missions, I am going for 100% or at least 99% otherwise it seems that the Missions Fail. Today a trivial Patrol System one ran that was base 10-10-10 rating but through the Event was 100-10-10. I thought I had thrown in a +/- Engineering Ship but must have not selected that but my rating ended up being 86-120-130. So it was over 200 more than needed. Failure. My 'fault' but, really now.
The number of VIP Mining Claims that were at a 695 Score that 'jumps' with less than a second to go that would have been 715 makes one wonder if there isn't a randomized 'fail safe' twitchyness built in to keep Max results down a bit.
You can correctly point out the probabilities, that are correct, but regardless of logic, people will still have a gut feeling that there is a 'disturbance in the force' on how the RNG works out for them.
For me, I have only been selling Keys and R&D Packs over the last three or so months.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
For a time now I've been suspect that when keys go on sale lockbox drop rates are get a temporary nerf. Pay attention to how often you see yellow reward texts normally, then when they are on sale. In fact, I would love an official answer to this. The obvious answer of "the drop rates stay the same during key sales" would only increase my odds even though nothing has really changed.
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
It's been a long time since I have opened any lock boxes. I believe I initially opened them back in the beginning of 2014 because I created my KDF captain a bit too late to get the DSD anniversary ship. I think I needed around 80 more vouchers. So I decided to use Lobi Crystals to purchase the remaining vouchers. I think I decided to give up after using only 3 or 4 keys since the Lobi payout was only 4 per box. I do not recall how many Lobi was need to buy a box of anniversary vouchers and how many vouchers were in each box. But I decided it was too expensive so I decided to give up.
Giving up seemed to be the right strategy because in 2015 Cryptic changed their rules for event ships so my KDF captain and all subsequent captains were able to claim the anniversary DSD.
I've been contemplating for a while to determine if anything in the Lobi Store is really worth burning through master keys since I am more of a casual player...
just think of all the c-store ships you could have bought for that money but you made you own choices and have to live with the consequences, you cant blame the game makers for providing players with a way to spend lots of money for minimal return you can only blame yourself for falling into the trap of thinking you would surely win, just remember you are not alone there are plenty of others who have fell for that dilution.
So...let me get this straight. You wanted lobis fron those boxes and got lobis...and you are mad because?!? You say you did not care about a ship. You are obviously lying. You also do not know how to do statistics as well None of this is the fault of cryptic. It's all you. Scream and yell like a child if you want...but don't expect to be treated as more then a child then.
its very hard for people to understand statistics, people are under the impression that a gamble with something that is say 500-1 chance of winning the star prize if you do it 500 times you are sure to have a win, this is not the case, it doesn't matter if you open 1 box or 1000 boxes every one on them has the same chance of containing a ship which is basically not very much chance at all.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Wait.. He used 577 keys to obtain lobi, but then complains he didn't get "even one ship"...
Did you not get the lobi you wanted ?
I thought you only opened the boxes for lobi ?
But now you're upset that you didn't luck out on a ship, but... I thought all you wanted was the lobi ?
Sure, a ship would have been a nice bonus to get by key number 577... but by all accounts you got exactly what you were looking for...577 keys worth of lobi.
Also you might have faired better had you waited for a promo.. 10 lobi per doff pack/r&d pack, is much more lucrative then 3-4 that lockboxes reward.
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
The complaint has to do with the person not liking the way ships are distributed via the lockbox, specifically the odds.
You can go to McDonald's, get chicken nuggets, be super happy with your nuggets, and still be annoyed that the prize that came in your happy meal wasn't what you wanted. I've seen kids do that alllllll the time.
There's really no feedback to give the OP. They stated what happened. Stated their displeasure with the result. And stated what actions they are going to take in response to that.
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
The complaint has to do with the person not liking the way ships are distributed via the lockbox, specifically the odds.
You can go to McDonald's, get chicken nuggets, be super happy with your nuggets, and still be annoyed that the prize that came in your happy meal wasn't what you wanted. I've seen kids do that alllllll the time.
There's really no feedback to give the OP. They stated what happened. Stated their displeasure with the result. And stated what actions they are going to take in response to that.
this is the thing that people don't understand about odds as I was saying before, even if the odds of winning a ship was 2-1 he could still feasibly open 577 and not get a ship, as each box has the same chance of containing a ship or not he could be unlucky and just open boxes that just don't contain ships where some other so&so could open that many boxes a get a ship from every one.
anywhere where odds are concerned there are no guarantees of anything no matter the odds or how often you play.
even though with lower odds it is more likely to get a win there is no guarantee you will.
cryptic very cleverly estimate the number of boxes that will be opened and the odds they need to set to insure that approximately the number of ships they want to be won are won within an acceptable margin, this is why the odds of winning will always be around the amount it is.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
I wish cryptic would put a 2-5% duty on item's that is charged at listing time that only get's returned if the item sells.
I fully support this... posting fee of a flat 5% of the selling price... if sold you get it back... if item is not sold, say good bye to posting fee but hey you get your item back. At the same time, extend the duration an item says on the exchange to a full month with the posting being able to adjust the sale price. If adjusting the price down... you get your ec back via mail... if you adjust it up, you need to pay the difference before new price takes effect.
A little too OT, this thread is not about auction fees. It is about how lock boxes can literally never pay off and you should not expect a ship.
I am not sure what the drop rate is exactly but, and you can correct me if I am wrong, I read somewhere It was like .8% . I know that if you near double the instances of what the odds add to =100% you end up somewhere in the mid 80% range. So for example 100/.8=125, 125x2=250 So if you open roughly 250 boxes your odds can be very roughly around 80% to get 1 ship.
I just re downloaded it (glad to see its still around actually) and punched in 250 rolls of at least 8 on a d1000 and the odds were 86.57% 125 rolls is 63.36% I can of course not verify this calculator is perfectly accurate but when you do odds and stuff I always find some ppl have their own math they swear works. My personal view is that only fractions are 100% accurate...:)
Post edited by fluorescentblack on
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Hmm, what odds did you use? For 1:250 I get 90.9993% chance of success, and for 1:200 I get 94.4548%. Before opening any of the 577 boxes of course. It's only the R&D packs that are 1:100.
Regardless, that's impressively awful luck to roll a 1 on a d20 and critically fumble the lock box opening.
4 posts up I posted a link to a program I used near 10 years ago when I was researching odds for playing tabletop wargames and making a blackjack strategey. It seemed pretty accurate from initial testing and feel so I went with it. Heck, I still referance it.
Most notably I learned for sure I like to stay on 16 if the dealer is as likely to bust as I am and that you have a 55% chance to roll at least one 5 on 2D6
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
10% variance between our two numbers is significant. Now I'm really curious. Karma spans multiple lifetimes all cumulative. It has no basis here. The Op or anyone could just be earning it.
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
Comments
Even with this unbelievable rant, even if you only got 4 lobi per box(and that's lowballing) you'd of gotten well over 2k lobi, so crying you got nothing when you get lobi EVERY SINGLE BOX, with a rant this stupid, just WOW.
Star Trek Battles member. Want to roll with a good group of people regardless of fleets and not have to worry about DPS while doing STFs? Come join the channel and join in the fun!
http://forum.arcgames.com/startrekonline/discussion/1145998/star-trek-battles-channel-got-canon/p1
Wait... who is more ignorant here? The people unimpressed with rank stupidity, or the person who thought they'd get sympathy for announcing their rank stupidity?
It's GAMBLING you moron. Bad luck? Maybe God hates you (certainly the rest of us are starting to...)? Take your pick. But you could open 2000 boxes without getting a ship and still not be wildly outside the norm. Opening more boxes will not guarantee results. EVER.
With that person:
Star Trek Battles member. Want to roll with a good group of people regardless of fleets and not have to worry about DPS while doing STFs? Come join the channel and join in the fun!
http://forum.arcgames.com/startrekonline/discussion/1145998/star-trek-battles-channel-got-canon/p1
Hell, I've probably personally taken a bite out of nekofury's luck, since I've gotten THREE grand prize ships for less than 200 keys when I did my big push on the Kelvin Lockboxes.
Of course the boxes drop ships - that's how ships get onto the exchange to be bought by folks who don't like RNG. That they haven't dropped for one particular mouthy, whinny twit is not news. Or something that needs to be shared. Or something that anyone should think will result in anything other than complete mockery.
I needed lobi for the Delphic Weapons set and I knew the odds were bad for a ship, but figured I'd get one because the odds for above 4 lobi being rewarded are worse.
I'd say out of all the keys I used maybe 3 or 4 boxes gave out more than 4 lobi.
I did get the Sphere Dreadnought however (thanks) and one box gave me 50 lobi! That made me sit back.
Of course I sold all the stuff I didn't want and bought further keys over 3 days to get the lobi I needed for the set after I used up the $20 in zen I originally invested.
Like the OP I was factoring a ship as a bonus instead opening boxes for the lobbi , universal upgrades, and the the ability to open weapon boxes on low level characters to efficiently epic them.
I still have never got a ship, have never gotten one on STO PC, or even gotten a mount out of Neverwinters boxes on PC after having opened roughly the same amount on each but no more than double.
Eventually I will get one for the first time and I'll go buy a lottery ticket on the way to a casino. Until then I will continue to occasionally open boxes.
Save the 'OP obviously doesn't understand statistics and probability, blah, blah, blah. The point was really, for $551.61 (956 Zen for 10 Keys) it IS unreasonable for there to be NO Ship regardless of whether the OP was looking for a Ship or not.
Not to sound tin-foil hatty, but it's almost as if the Casino had shaved down the wall on the Double Zero Well by one-hundredth of a millimetre on the Roulette Wheel to skew results more favorably for the 'House'. We don't know what Cryptic uses to seed the pseudo-random numbers generated.
As far as Admiralty Missions, I am going for 100% or at least 99% otherwise it seems that the Missions Fail. Today a trivial Patrol System one ran that was base 10-10-10 rating but through the Event was 100-10-10. I thought I had thrown in a +/- Engineering Ship but must have not selected that but my rating ended up being 86-120-130. So it was over 200 more than needed. Failure. My 'fault' but, really now.
The number of VIP Mining Claims that were at a 695 Score that 'jumps' with less than a second to go that would have been 715 makes one wonder if there isn't a randomized 'fail safe' twitchyness built in to keep Max results down a bit.
You can correctly point out the probabilities, that are correct, but regardless of logic, people will still have a gut feeling that there is a 'disturbance in the force' on how the RNG works out for them.
For me, I have only been selling Keys and R&D Packs over the last three or so months.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Giving up seemed to be the right strategy because in 2015 Cryptic changed their rules for event ships so my KDF captain and all subsequent captains were able to claim the anniversary DSD.
I've been contemplating for a while to determine if anything in the Lobi Store is really worth burning through master keys since I am more of a casual player...
its very hard for people to understand statistics, people are under the impression that a gamble with something that is say 500-1 chance of winning the star prize if you do it 500 times you are sure to have a win, this is not the case, it doesn't matter if you open 1 box or 1000 boxes every one on them has the same chance of containing a ship which is basically not very much chance at all.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Did you not get the lobi you wanted ?
I thought you only opened the boxes for lobi ?
But now you're upset that you didn't luck out on a ship, but... I thought all you wanted was the lobi ?
Sure, a ship would have been a nice bonus to get by key number 577... but by all accounts you got exactly what you were looking for...577 keys worth of lobi.
Also you might have faired better had you waited for a promo.. 10 lobi per doff pack/r&d pack, is much more lucrative then 3-4 that lockboxes reward.
with the sphere builder lockbox I got my very 1st ship now!
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
The complaint has to do with the person not liking the way ships are distributed via the lockbox, specifically the odds.
You can go to McDonald's, get chicken nuggets, be super happy with your nuggets, and still be annoyed that the prize that came in your happy meal wasn't what you wanted. I've seen kids do that alllllll the time.
There's really no feedback to give the OP. They stated what happened. Stated their displeasure with the result. And stated what actions they are going to take in response to that.
this is the thing that people don't understand about odds as I was saying before, even if the odds of winning a ship was 2-1 he could still feasibly open 577 and not get a ship, as each box has the same chance of containing a ship or not he could be unlucky and just open boxes that just don't contain ships where some other so&so could open that many boxes a get a ship from every one.
anywhere where odds are concerned there are no guarantees of anything no matter the odds or how often you play.
even though with lower odds it is more likely to get a win there is no guarantee you will.
cryptic very cleverly estimate the number of boxes that will be opened and the odds they need to set to insure that approximately the number of ships they want to be won are won within an acceptable margin, this is why the odds of winning will always be around the amount it is.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
I fully support this... posting fee of a flat 5% of the selling price... if sold you get it back... if item is not sold, say good bye to posting fee but hey you get your item back. At the same time, extend the duration an item says on the exchange to a full month with the posting being able to adjust the sale price. If adjusting the price down... you get your ec back via mail... if you adjust it up, you need to pay the difference before new price takes effect.
I am not sure what the drop rate is exactly but, and you can correct me if I am wrong, I read somewhere It was like .8% . I know that if you near double the instances of what the odds add to =100% you end up somewhere in the mid 80% range. So for example 100/.8=125, 125x2=250 So if you open roughly 250 boxes your odds can be very roughly around 80% to get 1 ship.
The hard reality is that its only ever .8
Edits:
This is a link to the program I initially used
http://www.fnordistan.com/smallroller.html
I just re downloaded it (glad to see its still around actually) and punched in 250 rolls of at least 8 on a d1000 and the odds were 86.57% 125 rolls is 63.36% I can of course not verify this calculator is perfectly accurate but when you do odds and stuff I always find some ppl have their own math they swear works. My personal view is that only fractions are 100% accurate...:)
Hahaha...
Sorry... Dude, thats terrible...
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Hmm, what odds did you use? For 1:250 I get 90.9993% chance of success, and for 1:200 I get 94.4548%. Before opening any of the 577 boxes of course. It's only the R&D packs that are 1:100.
Regardless, that's impressively awful luck to roll a 1 on a d20 and critically fumble the lock box opening.
Most notably I learned for sure I like to stay on 16 if the dealer is as likely to bust as I am and that you have a 55% chance to roll at least one 5 on 2D6