When I said .8 I meant .8% sry. I'm not saying .08 is right or wrong. I would however like to know how you end up with 10% less chance when I am apparently using 200% more. Sure you can show your work, what you are doing and why you are doing it is equally important. For the sake of conversation I'll assume your math is correct. I can not confirm your train of though is correct even though your math is.
Is increasing 50% to 55% a 5 or 10% increase?
I am not saying you are wrong, I am just saying I can not accept what you are saying as either correct or not. I did however find that program to work pretty well at making lots of $ gambeling and winning TT tourneys.
I do think that your 90% of 577 being a lower chance falls more in line with what I find players to experience. Speculation here but I kinda decided that I like a one ship per 1800 lobby ratio and that is usually what I tend to tell somone. Claculate that one pls.
Leader of The Temporal Guard and Temporal Defence Force
10% variance between our two numbers is significant. Now I'm really curious. Karma spans multiple lifetimes all cumulative. It has no basis here. The Op or anyone could just be earning it.
What we're using is the formula for dependent probability, calculating the odds of failing 577 times in a row, which is just 0.996 ^ 577 for a 1 in 250 chance. You then subtract that from 1 to get the odds of winning at least 1 ship.
The OP is rolling a d250 and managed to never get a 1 in 577 rolls.
Gut estimation is you'd get 2 ships which means you "have to" get at least 1, right? Nope, there is a 10% chance you've never roll a 1 in 577 tries. 9 out of 10 people will succeed but that last person really should have used the exchange.
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Ok two Things. 1. It is a well known fact in this game that if you spend money on a regular basis, say $75 to $200 a month. (The monthly cost of Cigarettes In the US.) Your drop rate for Lock box's go's waaay up. Add a lifer account and it goes up even more. I have two people in my fleet that are Whales who have proven to me that at about $65 a month after a lifer account is bought you have a 50/75 chance of getting a ship or whatever for around $65 worth of keys. Now if you had the 577 keys at one time. Basic probability math shows that unless the base drop rate has been changed a Free to player would get at least 3-4 T5 ships and one T6 ship. The LOBI would jump around like a rabbit between the bottom number of 4 to the high number of 25. (Again a Lifer account would lean it to the high end.) With average number of Lobi being 10 you would have 5,770. Which could have bought you a whole mess of stuff from that store. The thing is you needed to have the whole lot of keys in one pile for it to be effective. And if you have spent "thousands" you would have been able to have bought out the Zen store. You know the Store that you buy the keys from? The Store that the Devs keep track of every transaction that go's on in the game. The Devs who would have put you on the V.I.P list so any time you did use a key to open a lock box your drop rate would be set to max because YOU put food on the table. So why in God's name would the people who need big spenders to feed themselves keep such a well paying customer in the low end? Hhm? See we know how this game works OP. It is YOU who does not. And 2. WATCH YOUR LANGUAGE.
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Hmm, what odds did you use? For 1:250 I get 90.9993% chance of success, and for 1:200 I get 94.4548%. Before opening any of the 577 boxes of course. It's only the R&D packs that are 1:100.
Regardless, that's impressively awful luck to roll a 1 on a d20 and critically fumble the lock box opening.
an example of more players who don't understand how odds work, they dont understand that you could open a million boxes and still not get a ship, opening more boxes does not lesson the odds of winning as each box you open still has the same odds of being a ship as the first box you open, this is why you could also open your very first box and win a ship, its just luck and if your lucks not there you might never win a ship regardless of how many boxes you open.
the devs rely on the fact that players don't understand how odds work and will buy more and more keys with the impression that the more boxes they open the greater their odds is of getting the star prize and sadly this is never the case.
of course for every box you open you take a chance and the more boxes you open the more chances you have that you might get a ship if you are lucky but this has nothing to do with reducing the odds of not winning, that is a totally different thing entirely.
just imagine a horse race where theres is a horse that is 1000-1 odds would buying a 1000 win tickets for this horse guarantee that this horse will win?.
Post edited by bobbydazlers on
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Then why are you complaining , you got what you wanted lobi, if you didnt do it for the ship then i dont see a problem.
I'd be pissed too, the op had a 99.03% chance and never got one. Neko, with 3 more keys you would have had a 99.05% chance. Surley you would have got it on the round up!
Hmm, what odds did you use? For 1:250 I get 90.9993% chance of success, and for 1:200 I get 94.4548%. Before opening any of the 577 boxes of course. It's only the R&D packs that are 1:100.
Regardless, that's impressively awful luck to roll a 1 on a d20 and critically fumble the lock box opening.
an example of more players who don't understand how odds work, they dont understand that you could open a million boxes and still not get a ship, opening more boxes does not lesson the odds of winning as each box you open still has the same odds of being a ship as the first box you open, this is why you could also open your very first box and win a ship, its just luck and if your lucks not there you might never win a ship regardless of how many boxes you open.
the devs rely on the fact that players don't understand how odds work and will buy more and more keys with the impression that the more boxes they open the greater their odds is of getting the star prize and sadly this is never the case.
of course for every box you open you take a chance and the more boxes you open the more chances you have that you might get a ship if you are lucky but this has nothing to do with reducing the odds of not winning, that is a totally different thing entirely.
just imagine a horse race where theres is a horse that is 1000-1 odds would buying a 1000 win tickets for this horse guarantee that this horse will win?.
Thanks for sharing lol!
Rip numeracy.
numeracy, the ability to understand and work with numbers is alive and well, what should die is peoples assumption that they can beat the odds with the use of numeracy.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
The question is what do they use to provide the seed for their pseudo-random number generator?
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
The question is what do they use to provide the seed for their pseudo-random number generator?
True, if you knew the seed, the RNG function and you could pick a specific box #107423509 to open, you could win 100% of the time. Too bad we can't do any of those
The seed is the server time stamp. And it ain't random. Its a look-up chart.
That's why if you know past results with sufficient precision you can open a couple boxes in rapid succession and force a grand prize out. It's not black magic. While some insist it's a rumor, due to my crappy internet connection I KNOW it's true, because I've had dozens of instances where my commands to use key/open a box are hung in a lag spike and 2 or even 3 keys get processed simultaneously when the commands finally go through and the results are always perfect duplicates or even triplicate results. Same server tick = same result. For EVERYBODY who opens a box at that exact moment, which is why you sometimes see 2-3 different people all get a "ship prize!" reward announcement in a stampede.
The question is what do they use to provide the seed for their pseudo-random number generator?
True, if you knew the seed, the RNG function and you could pick a specific box #107423509 to open, you could win 100% of the time. Too bad we can't do any of those
A whole lot of folks seem to misunderstand what a PRNG's seed even is, let alone know how they're used. It's really quite interesting how creative some folks get when they try to figure it out, and how steadfast they get when they have reached a conclusion they can accept. Honestly, I can't even tell anymore who is misinformed and who is intentionally being wrong; both groups have gone into that tin-foil territory that is hard to reach.
Don't get me wrong, though, I think it's great. The fewer the number of people who actually know how these things work, the greater the number of folks who spend their wallet and space monies attempting to prove their theories. Not to test their theories, mind you, but to prove them. How can you not admire that?
Don't judge me, but after 577 keys and no ship, I didn't do it for the ship, but.... 577 keys, no ship!.... My annual thousands of $$$$ just ended for you, I can no longer, in good conscience, support you.
Ok two Things. 1. It is a well known fact in this game that if you spend money on a regular basis, say $75 to $200 a month. (The monthly cost of Cigarettes In the US.) Your drop rate for Lock box's go's waaay up. Add a lifer account and it goes up even more. I have two people in my fleet that are Whales who have proven to me that at about $65 a month after a lifer account is bought you have a 50/75 chance of getting a ship or whatever for around $65 worth of keys. Now if you had the 577 keys at one time. Basic probability math shows that unless the base drop rate has been changed a Free to player would get at least 3-4 T5 ships and one T6 ship. The LOBI would jump around like a rabbit between the bottom number of 4 to the high number of 25. (Again a Lifer account would lean it to the high end.) With average number of Lobi being 10 you would have 5,770. Which could have bought you a whole mess of stuff from that store. The thing is you needed to have the whole lot of keys in one pile for it to be effective. And if you have spent "thousands" you would have been able to have bought out the Zen store. You know the Store that you buy the keys from? The Store that the Devs keep track of every transaction that go's on in the game. The Devs who would have put you on the V.I.P list so any time you did use a key to open a lock box your drop rate would be set to max because YOU put food on the table. So why in God's name would the people who need big spenders to feed themselves keep such a well paying customer in the low end? Hhm? See we know how this game works OP. It is YOU who does not. And 2. WATCH YOUR LANGUAGE.
Do you have any idea how complicated it would be to set up something like this and then keep it undercover, when it would be such a great incentive? While what you say is of course technically possible, I very much doubt it. Not least because I am a lifer and so far have won squat (of the major stuff). Normally I'd mention that I didn't open that many lockboxes, but if the odds were waaay up, I should have gotten something fantastic along the way.
But if it was a well-known fact, I am sure there are some documented trials who were able to gather enough data to draw this conclusion?!
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
The seed is the server time stamp. And it ain't random. Its a look-up chart.
That's why if you know past results with sufficient precision you can open a couple boxes in rapid succession and force a grand prize out. It's not black magic. While some insist it's a rumor, due to my crappy internet connection I KNOW it's true, because I've had dozens of instances where my commands to use key/open a box are hung in a lag spike and 2 or even 3 keys get processed simultaneously when the commands finally go through and the results are always perfect duplicates or even triplicate results. Same server tick = same result. For EVERYBODY who opens a box at that exact moment, which is why you sometimes see 2-3 different people all get a "ship prize!" reward announcement in a stampede.
(a) the seed starts the random (well, pseudo random) process. After then it continues as a sequence until it gets re-seeded. So after the first number got made from a seed, the following will be exactly the same. (Of course we are not talking "1 to 250" as a seed number here, but a way more precise number between 0 and 1 which will be converted to your needs. You can of course always use the timer of your computer/the server as a new seed, but that would make only very limited sense, especially if hiccups could happen, and is, most importantly, not done by the available RNGs. So you'd have to reinvent the wheel instead of just relying on what somebody else already did, just to make it worse.
(b) a "server tick", assuming you mean what I think you mean, is very, very, very fast. More importantly, it is also defined by how fast your server is. Basically, parallel processing ignored, you cannot get multiple calculations within the same "tick". Even a stuck up internet connection making your three-second delay between clicks on "open box" simultaneous for every other practical purpose would still be in line and thus at different times for the processor. Any seed taken from a timestamp would change inbetween boxes. I don't know what you have witnessed (I certainly don't remember witnessing almost-at-the-same-time lock box wins, but that's also no proof of anything), but it isn't what you're saying it is. And aiming for a certain spot is impossible, because even with perfect information you'd be forced to act with a precision of less than a thousanth of a second. Way less. (Or, in the more likely scenario, would have to make exactly sure which number of a sequence you're getting, which sequence may, depending on how it is programmed, include every single shot and damage roll in every single queue running at that time).
I very much doubt that the PRNG will be faulty (within the limits set by it being pseudo from the start). It may very well be that the implementation of the RNG's results within STO are faulty. But not for the reasons you mentioned.
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
Again, its functionally a look up table because if you have good records you can see which ticks lead to grand prize results. Its is a recurring and exploitable pattern.
MMO sever ticks generally run in the 1/6th of a second range, not milliseconds. There is a LOT going on and they bundle up all those processes for distribution in small fraction-of-a-second bites with the client on the other end hiding the slow "frame rate". Which is consistent with the results people using this knowledge have reported that they know the right second to click the button but the grand prize result is still about 20% - i.e. the timestamps they're able to read identify moment to the second but they don't know which of the 5-6 ticks within that second is the one that is actually associated with the prize so they just spam the action at the right time and hope for the best. It also doesn't take a enormous amount of lag for the server to see 2-3 open box actions come in from one client, assign them to be resolved during the next tick, and have all of them spit out the exact same contents because they all read from the same line of the chart.
Damn, you punks don't listen for ****. I didn't use my keys for ships. I used my keys to obtain Lobi. Don't give a **** about a ship, but the **** point, you ignorant motherfuckers, is, I didn't see a ship in 577 **** lockboxes. 2 years time, I know wtf I'm doing, it just comes down to a, you advertise ships in lockboxes, yet you don't actually give ships in **** lockboxes... i mean, wtf ever, you ignorant mofos go on bout your business, I only got so much room for stupidity.
Wait... who is more ignorant here? The people unimpressed with rank stupidity, or the person who thought they'd get sympathy for announcing their rank stupidity?
It's GAMBLING you moron. Bad luck? Maybe God hates you (certainly the rest of us are starting to...)? Take your pick. But you could open 2000 boxes without getting a ship and still not be wildly outside the norm. Opening more boxes will not guarantee results. EVER.
and you accuse me of using a straw man argument
pot calling the kettle black ?
he is (poorly) stating that from >>his experience<< , the ships are very very rare. he even stated that
he personally did use keys for ships.
Keep trying. Eventually you'll manage a post where you don't look stupid. At least, the law of averages says you will. The required sample size might be fairly large though...
One of the things that'll help is instead of parroting the words 'straw man' just because you've seen other people use them, maybe you should find out what they mean. And I mean have an actual understanding, not just copypasta from Wikipedia.
Another would be not trying to follow me around with some chip on your shoulder from the thrashing you took in your own random mouthing off thread with any expectation of a better outcome then getting whacked on the nose with a rolled up newspaper, rhetorically speaking. You are NOT GOOD AT THIS.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Comments
I moved districts 7 times when in school. My math was broken up
Is increasing 50% to 55% a 5 or 10% increase?
I am not saying you are wrong, I am just saying I can not accept what you are saying as either correct or not. I did however find that program to work pretty well at making lots of $ gambeling and winning TT tourneys.
I do think that your 90% of 577 being a lower chance falls more in line with what I find players to experience. Speculation here but I kinda decided that I like a one ship per 1800 lobby ratio and that is usually what I tend to tell somone. Claculate that one pls.
What we're using is the formula for dependent probability, calculating the odds of failing 577 times in a row, which is just 0.996 ^ 577 for a 1 in 250 chance. You then subtract that from 1 to get the odds of winning at least 1 ship.
The OP is rolling a d250 and managed to never get a 1 in 577 rolls.
Gut estimation is you'd get 2 ships which means you "have to" get at least 1, right? Nope, there is a 10% chance you've never roll a 1 in 577 tries. 9 out of 10 people will succeed but that last person really should have used the exchange.
Ok two Things. 1. It is a well known fact in this game that if you spend money on a regular basis, say $75 to $200 a month. (The monthly cost of Cigarettes In the US.) Your drop rate for Lock box's go's waaay up. Add a lifer account and it goes up even more. I have two people in my fleet that are Whales who have proven to me that at about $65 a month after a lifer account is bought you have a 50/75 chance of getting a ship or whatever for around $65 worth of keys. Now if you had the 577 keys at one time. Basic probability math shows that unless the base drop rate has been changed a Free to player would get at least 3-4 T5 ships and one T6 ship. The LOBI would jump around like a rabbit between the bottom number of 4 to the high number of 25. (Again a Lifer account would lean it to the high end.) With average number of Lobi being 10 you would have 5,770. Which could have bought you a whole mess of stuff from that store. The thing is you needed to have the whole lot of keys in one pile for it to be effective. And if you have spent "thousands" you would have been able to have bought out the Zen store. You know the Store that you buy the keys from? The Store that the Devs keep track of every transaction that go's on in the game. The Devs who would have put you on the V.I.P list so any time you did use a key to open a lock box your drop rate would be set to max because YOU put food on the table. So why in God's name would the people who need big spenders to feed themselves keep such a well paying customer in the low end? Hhm? See we know how this game works OP. It is YOU who does not. And 2. WATCH YOUR LANGUAGE.
an example of more players who don't understand how odds work, they dont understand that you could open a million boxes and still not get a ship, opening more boxes does not lesson the odds of winning as each box you open still has the same odds of being a ship as the first box you open, this is why you could also open your very first box and win a ship, its just luck and if your lucks not there you might never win a ship regardless of how many boxes you open.
the devs rely on the fact that players don't understand how odds work and will buy more and more keys with the impression that the more boxes they open the greater their odds is of getting the star prize and sadly this is never the case.
of course for every box you open you take a chance and the more boxes you open the more chances you have that you might get a ship if you are lucky but this has nothing to do with reducing the odds of not winning, that is a totally different thing entirely.
just imagine a horse race where theres is a horse that is 1000-1 odds would buying a 1000 win tickets for this horse guarantee that this horse will win?.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
numeracy, the ability to understand and work with numbers is alive and well, what should die is peoples assumption that they can beat the odds with the use of numeracy.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
Shaka, when the walls fell.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
True, if you knew the seed, the RNG function and you could pick a specific box #107423509 to open, you could win 100% of the time. Too bad we can't do any of those
That's why if you know past results with sufficient precision you can open a couple boxes in rapid succession and force a grand prize out. It's not black magic. While some insist it's a rumor, due to my crappy internet connection I KNOW it's true, because I've had dozens of instances where my commands to use key/open a box are hung in a lag spike and 2 or even 3 keys get processed simultaneously when the commands finally go through and the results are always perfect duplicates or even triplicate results. Same server tick = same result. For EVERYBODY who opens a box at that exact moment, which is why you sometimes see 2-3 different people all get a "ship prize!" reward announcement in a stampede.
A whole lot of folks seem to misunderstand what a PRNG's seed even is, let alone know how they're used. It's really quite interesting how creative some folks get when they try to figure it out, and how steadfast they get when they have reached a conclusion they can accept. Honestly, I can't even tell anymore who is misinformed and who is intentionally being wrong; both groups have gone into that tin-foil territory that is hard to reach.
Don't get me wrong, though, I think it's great. The fewer the number of people who actually know how these things work, the greater the number of folks who spend their wallet and space monies attempting to prove their theories. Not to test their theories, mind you, but to prove them. How can you not admire that?
Do you have any idea how complicated it would be to set up something like this and then keep it undercover, when it would be such a great incentive? While what you say is of course technically possible, I very much doubt it. Not least because I am a lifer and so far have won squat (of the major stuff). Normally I'd mention that I didn't open that many lockboxes, but if the odds were waaay up, I should have gotten something fantastic along the way.
But if it was a well-known fact, I am sure there are some documented trials who were able to gather enough data to draw this conclusion?!
(a) the seed starts the random (well, pseudo random) process. After then it continues as a sequence until it gets re-seeded. So after the first number got made from a seed, the following will be exactly the same. (Of course we are not talking "1 to 250" as a seed number here, but a way more precise number between 0 and 1 which will be converted to your needs. You can of course always use the timer of your computer/the server as a new seed, but that would make only very limited sense, especially if hiccups could happen, and is, most importantly, not done by the available RNGs. So you'd have to reinvent the wheel instead of just relying on what somebody else already did, just to make it worse.
(b) a "server tick", assuming you mean what I think you mean, is very, very, very fast. More importantly, it is also defined by how fast your server is. Basically, parallel processing ignored, you cannot get multiple calculations within the same "tick". Even a stuck up internet connection making your three-second delay between clicks on "open box" simultaneous for every other practical purpose would still be in line and thus at different times for the processor. Any seed taken from a timestamp would change inbetween boxes. I don't know what you have witnessed (I certainly don't remember witnessing almost-at-the-same-time lock box wins, but that's also no proof of anything), but it isn't what you're saying it is. And aiming for a certain spot is impossible, because even with perfect information you'd be forced to act with a precision of less than a thousanth of a second. Way less. (Or, in the more likely scenario, would have to make exactly sure which number of a sequence you're getting, which sequence may, depending on how it is programmed, include every single shot and damage roll in every single queue running at that time).
I very much doubt that the PRNG will be faulty (within the limits set by it being pseudo from the start). It may very well be that the implementation of the RNG's results within STO are faulty. But not for the reasons you mentioned.
MMO sever ticks generally run in the 1/6th of a second range, not milliseconds. There is a LOT going on and they bundle up all those processes for distribution in small fraction-of-a-second bites with the client on the other end hiding the slow "frame rate". Which is consistent with the results people using this knowledge have reported that they know the right second to click the button but the grand prize result is still about 20% - i.e. the timestamps they're able to read identify moment to the second but they don't know which of the 5-6 ticks within that second is the one that is actually associated with the prize so they just spam the action at the right time and hope for the best. It also doesn't take a enormous amount of lag for the server to see 2-3 open box actions come in from one client, assign them to be resolved during the next tick, and have all of them spit out the exact same contents because they all read from the same line of the chart.
and you accuse me of using a straw man argument
pot calling the kettle black ?
he is (poorly) stating that from >>his experience<< , the ships are very very rare. he even stated that
he personally did use keys for ships.
One of the things that'll help is instead of parroting the words 'straw man' just because you've seen other people use them, maybe you should find out what they mean. And I mean have an actual understanding, not just copypasta from Wikipedia.
Another would be not trying to follow me around with some chip on your shoulder from the thrashing you took in your own random mouthing off thread with any expectation of a better outcome then getting whacked on the nose with a rolled up newspaper, rhetorically speaking. You are NOT GOOD AT THIS.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'