There's a simply was to solve this problem: remove face to face trade. This would eliminate those 3rd party sellers
Ohh, missed this one. Best idea ever.
In fact if iirc, in swtor, something like this is allready in place. You cant trade between new free acounts, or at least it was like this when I played awhile ago,.. Its indeed a good idea to stop gold sellers.
PWE is bleeding money with all these sellers able to make face to face trades, giving lockbox prizes and EC. Eliminating player to player direct trade would solve alot of problems. Also, a good EC sink would be duty officer assignment: 200.000 EC for 10 contraband, cooldown 4 hours; dilitium is capped at 8k refinement/day anyway.
Raising the exchange cap would lower the prices of the 500+ ships, not raise them, for reasons that are as plain as day and have already been explained in this thread by more than one person, more than once...
And it has been explained by more than one person more than once why this isn't necessarily the case.
The reasoning for it is that transparency would help buyers (and sellers alike) see how others value your items. This I agree on. It then states that there would be a competition between sellers to get their stuff to other people. And this does not necessarily work, since there is no real competition. There is a large enough market to swallow all the Annoraxes generated by the game (to keep our example intact). So if there are a couple of 600M "cheapskate sellers", I'll just wait out until they sold their stuff, and then when people are still craving their Annorax I am coming to the rescue, for the cheap and fair price of 850M. And there would still be potential buyers around.
Granted, it could somewhat stabilize the prizes if the first cheaper buyers were the one willing to dish out the most. But that's a big "if" and would rely on chance.
On a different vein, there is also the misconception that a lower price would get people a shot at acquiring the ship. Well, a shot yes, but a very long shot. Even IF the price somehow goes down to whatever is considered reasonable and even IF that wouldn't discourage sellers and even IF it wouldn't encourage more potential buyers, there would still be a lot of potential buyers per ship.
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
I think the solution would be to raise the exchange cap to even multi-billions AND add a 10% posting fee. Like in NW.
That would make an interesting metagame of how much the comfort of exchange would worth for you lol...
Again, that would be more of a market price than a "true price". A market price is what happens on a market, what things are bought/sold for. A true price would be the inherent worth of a thing, which (normally) does not exist. And I don't have to adhere to the market price at all if it's not compatible to my personal assertion of the utility, and I would not be wrong, since this is an individual thing. I may not get to buy or sell my stuff with my ideas, but I still would not be wrong (if I were using my actual valuation of said item and not trying to profit in any way).
You can call it whatever you wish but the point being this price exists. This is what things are going for. You're factually correct in the fact that you don't have to sell for the exact market value of the ship. You can sell for less if you just want to get rid of it. You can also ask for more than value. However you're not guaranteed to get buyers if you go above that value. You can ask whatever you want for a price. I can ask 1b for a Mirror Star Cruiser if I want, but simply because I'm asking 1b does not mean I will get 1b. You're free to hold onto something in hopes that prices will go up if you think it's too low. In the time you hold on to that item however the price could bottom out.
First off you've got to admit there is no such thing as a 'true price' for any item. There is an average price, which is what it sells at on average, but this is just a way of measuring and talking about actual sales that happen in the market, it just describes them, it doesn't say anything about truth, or validity, or anything like that.
The reason the Vomph sells for so much more than any other ship has is because it is much much more rare than any other ship in the game.
Assuming a 1/250 chance to win a Quas or other lockbox ship, an assumption with a lot of evidence over the years to back it up, there is good reason to believe the odds of winning a Vomph are only about 1/750. (This is based on recording about 80 ship win messages, and observing quas dropped at about 3x the rate of vonphs.)
This makes the Vomph not just 3x as rare and hard to get as a lockbox ship, but also 3x as rare and hard to get as a promo ship like an annorax.
One of the simplest truths about market pricing is that "when demand exceeds supply, there is a force moving the price upward."
That's the case with the Vomph, simple as can be.
As far as "price gouging" accusations, that's rubbish. This ship is a luxury good, like a Ferrari.
You can call the the price whatever you wish but as I said above it exists. If something is selling at 600m but you want 1b, that's greed.
No one is expecting to get the Vonph for free or any ship for free for that matter. What people do expect however is that things are sold at a reasonable price. Demanding 1b for a ship that's still currently out is beyond ridiculous and beyond greedy.
Drop chance is only one part of the equation, but that alone does not justify the ridiculous pricing that I'm seeing. You can holler and scream rarity until you're blue in the face, but considering this ship will always be available through the lockbox there is no reason for it to shoot this high.
It also figures you would dismiss the price gouging truth considering you're one of the very people that are causing the issue to start with. You and a few others. Whatever you choose to call the ship or however you wish to do it, asking the currency cap for something is insane no matter the game.
"Someone once told me that time was a predator that stalked us all our lives. I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey and reminds us to cherish every moment, because it will never come again." - Jean Luc Picard in Star Trek Generations
You can call it whatever you wish but the point being this price exists. This is what things are going for.
There is a vast difference though between calling something a "market price" as opposed to a "true price". And the way you use it it is not just "name it as you want". The first is just observation what is happening on the market when everybody acts as they think it is appropriate. The second as you use it is prescribing what a price should be, even if based on some observations itself, because it deems other valuations of the items irrelevant. If 80% of the population are getting up between 7am and 8am, getting up at another time is not somehow "a wrong time", much the same as considering the market price too high or low is not somehow wrong. And no, if I am asking for a higher price then I am not guaranteed a buyer (though I am pretty certain in the case of the Annorax I would be - sadly I don't own a single lockbox ship). But maybe I don't want a buyer at 600M because I consider it to be worth more?
You can call the the price whatever you wish but as I said above it exists. If something is selling at 600m but you want 1b, that's greed.
No one is expecting to get the Vonph for free or any ship for free for that matter. What people do expect however is that things are sold at a reasonable price. Demanding 1b for a ship that's still currently out is beyond ridiculous and beyond greedy.
You are probably right that a lot of the people asking these prices are greedy. Then again, if people are willing to dole out that amount of money, why should I settle for less? Would you leave 200M lying on the floor if you could? And as I said, I could always consider the Annorax to just be worth more - not because I want more money just to have more money, but because I think I can get more fun out of the Annorax than out of whatever I would do with the 600M, which might change if somebody upped the 600 to 800. Just because a market price exists does not mean it has to be compliant with my valuation (I know I am repeating myself here but that really is a difference not only in name). The same holds true for the buyer side as well. Just because the Annorax sells at 800M I don't have to consider that a fair price (as you do, so we are in the same boat here) and even though I'd like to have one I am not forced to pay that much.
The basis of any economic theory of a (mostly) free market by the way is that every participant tries to optimize his or her utility. In other words: greed.
Drop chance is only one part of the equation, but that alone does not justify the ridiculous pricing that I'm seeing.
Doesn't it? It may do.
Assuming the 1/750 chance is correct, getting a Vonph via buying keys would cost you 750 keys on average. The same 750 keys on the exchange are priced at 4 million apiece right now (actually even higher than that, but such a bulk sale would ruin prices somewhat), so 3 times what you need to buy a Vonph.
Yes, you would miss out on all the other shinies in the lockboxes. Including (on average) three of the herald flight deck Quas, which are worth a lot as well. And all the lobi which you could turn into lobi ships and sell them. So you're probably better off financially when gambling.
But: that is a lot more hassle if you only want your Vonph. Acquiring 750 lockboxes - they drop a lot but not that much. Opening them. Gathering all the stuff. Trying to sell it. Doing that often because of your inventory limit. And then you are not guaranteed a Vonph, which for most of us is a downside. Most people rather pay more and have a guarantee of success than gamble, even if gambling yields the higher expected value.
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
Consider there are 5 people with A Ship for sale. Only a max of three of them are ever online at the same time.
That means, at any given time, the available supply is only 3, and competition only occurs between 3 or fewer sellers.
Whereas if they can list on the exchange, all 5 compete on price and there is a supply of 5 on the market at all times.
Not being able to post persistant, easily viewed WTS ads for ships above 500 reduces price competition and reduces the supply at any given time, both of which are forces that keep prices high.
Not being able to list these items on the exchange unambiguously helps sellers (by keeping prices higher) and hurts buyers.
I could see that some sellers would be willing to accept a lower amount for the convenience for the exchange, but that would already be in place.
However, the supply and demand numbers are to be taken in relation to one another. So the difference between 3 sellers and 5 sellers is only of importance if there aren't enough buyers around for the ships. I don't know whether that is the case, but in that case the power would lie more with the buyers already. Generally speaking, if you only have 3 or 5 or even 10 sellers, price competition isn't working anymore (assuming enough potential buyers), because for that we would need a polypoly. In economic practice it happens way more often that the cheapest offer realizes he can still be the cheapest if he rises the price than that the others would drop theirs. And especially when, as in this case, the competitors have only a limited supply (usually "1"), the others can wait out until the competitor disappears. Of course we are still bound by what buyers are willing to give us, but that we can almost certainly get completely as sellers.
Also the "online at the same time" is only valid if you want your Annorax now. With an investion like this, it would be prudent to check out the market. And then you will meet a fourth seller. (The fifth is at the other end of the world). Similar only if you want to sell your Annorax now or don't believe it will fetch the 200M more you would accept the competition.
Heck, even in markets where there actually is a decent supply you can post your stuff by quite a bit above the current market value and still stand a very good chance of selling it. With more unique items, like a lot of the rarer doffs, prices may vary vastly.
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
Going back to OP... I think a better solution would be to replace the 500m Exchange-wide cap with a per-item mark-up limit. Nearly everything already has a "MSRP" attached to it (bottom-right corner of the item's mouse-over box). How about a limit of MSRP +/-100%? Even in open-market capitalistic societies (most of the developed western world), we have consumer protection laws that prevent price-gouging and unfair trades. It makes sense, to me, that a virtual economy might want to emulate the same type of things.
The number listed in the item description is like its scrap value, it's what you get for trashing/recycling it. It has no relation or connection to its value to people.
I disagree... the number listed is Cryptic's idea of what the value was intended to be. It's "resale" value is between 25-60% of the listed price (depending on where you sell it). It's "scrap" value (what you get for recycling into the replicator) is between 0-40%.
Raising the exchange cap would lower the prices of the 500+ ships, not raise them, for reasons that are as plain as day and have already been explained in this thread by more than one person, more than once...
And it has been explained by more than one person more than once why this isn't necessarily the case.
The reasoning for it is that transparency would help buyers (and sellers alike) see how others value your items. This I agree on. It then states that there would be a competition between sellers to get their stuff to other people. And this does not necessarily work, since there is no real competition. There is a large enough market to swallow all the Annoraxes generated by the game (to keep our example intact). So if there are a couple of 600M "cheapskate sellers", I'll just wait out until they sold their stuff, and then when people are still craving their Annorax I am coming to the rescue, for the cheap and fair price of 850M. And there would still be potential buyers around.
Granted, it could somewhat stabilize the prizes if the first cheaper buyers were the one willing to dish out the most. But that's a big "if" and would rely on chance.
On a different vein, there is also the misconception that a lower price would get people a shot at acquiring the ship. Well, a shot yes, but a very long shot. Even IF the price somehow goes down to whatever is considered reasonable and even IF that wouldn't discourage sellers and even IF it wouldn't encourage more potential buyers, there would still be a lot of potential buyers per ship.
Consider there are 5 people with A Ship for sale. Only a max of three of them are ever online at the same time.
That means, at any given time, the available supply is only 3, and competition only occurs between 3 or fewer sellers.
Whereas if they can list on the exchange, all 5 compete on price and there is a supply of 5 on the market at all times.
Not being able to post persistant, easily viewed WTS ads for ships above 500 reduces price competition and reduces the supply at any given time, both of which are forces that keep prices high.
Not being able to list these items on the exchange unambiguously helps sellers (by keeping prices higher) and hurts buyers.
That is actually an interesting aspect I hadn't considered. Due to it being more difficult to trade in the first place, the price might artificially raise.
Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
There is a vast difference though between calling something a "market price" as opposed to a "true price". And the way you use it it is not just "name it as you want". The first is just observation what is happening on the market when everybody acts as they think it is appropriate. The second as you use it is prescribing what a price should be, even if based on some observations itself, because it deems other valuations of the items irrelevant. If 80% of the population are getting up between 7am and 8am, getting up at another time is not somehow "a wrong time", much the same as considering the market price too high or low is not somehow wrong. And no, if I am asking for a higher price then I am not guaranteed a buyer (though I am pretty certain in the case of the Annorax I would be - sadly I don't own a single lockbox ship). But maybe I don't want a buyer at 600M because I consider it to be worth more?
Like I said you can call that price whatever you want, I'm not going to argue semantics.
The analogy you've laid out also is not comparable to a market in the manor you've set it up. In this instance you're trying to compare the time of day people wake up to a market and the setup does not work.
In the market there is a price point at which the vast majority of people buy things at. That much I would hope you can agree on is that such a price exists. Getting back into our examples now. If our Anorax is selling at 600m 99% of the time, but you have 4 oddball deals at, 550m, 575m, 625m and 650m, those 4 oddball deals are not wrong prices, as you're trying to accuse me of calling them. Those are simply flukes. 2 people got great deals, the other 2 overpaid. Whatever you choose to call it, 600m is the value, true price, or what have you of the Anorax in this case. Using our oddball deals the 550m, and the 575m ships were underpriced and the people who bought them at that price got a great deal. The 2 people who bought at 625m and 650m bought overpriced ships. So in this instances yes 600m is the true price, value, or what have you.
Like I've said several times now, people can ask what they want for an item all day long, but that does NOT mean they will get that asking price. If for example you have an old baseball card that you're asking $400 for, but similar cards like yours are only going for $200, then you're overpriced and have a bad price on your card. In this case you can ask $400 all day long for that card but you're going to be waiting a long time. If for example a Mirror Star Cruiser is selling for 2m, I can hold out for more because I think it's worth more, but at the end of the day items are worth what they're worth. If they never start selling above 2m then I'm wasting my time by trying to get more than 2m.
You are probably right that a lot of the people asking these prices are greedy. Then again, if people are willing to dole out that amount of money, why should I settle for less? Would you leave 200M lying on the floor if you could? And as I said, I could always consider the Annorax to just be worth more - not because I want more money just to have more money, but because I think I can get more fun out of the Annorax than out of whatever I would do with the 600M, which might change if somebody upped the 600 to 800. Just because a market price exists does not mean it has to be compliant with my valuation (I know I am repeating myself here but that really is a difference not only in name). The same holds true for the buyer side as well. Just because the Annorax sells at 800M I don't have to consider that a fair price (as you do, so we are in the same boat here) and even though I'd like to have one I am not forced to pay that much.
The basis of any economic theory of a (mostly) free market by the way is that every participant tries to optimize his or her utility. In other words: greed.
People want to get top dollar for their items and I get that. Wanting top dollar however is not the problem here. The problem is that currently the market is being artificially inflated and manipulated by certain greedy people who have far too much influence and control over it. The problem isn't that people want top dollar as I said. The problem is when people get greedy and TRIBBLE over everyone else in the game by manipulating the market. As it sits right now these people are essentially able to control who gets to fly the ship and who doesn't which is complete hogwash. No individual or group of individuals should ever have that much control like they do now. As it sits now there is no competition. There is nothing for people to compare prices to. I know I've repeated this example a great deal as well but it's a very true example. Suppose Joe Shmoe is looking to buy an Anorax. Our hypothetical Anorax is going for 600m. Johnny 2x4 walks up to Joe and offers him an Anorax for 650m. As it sits now, Joe has no way of knowing that's 50m above what everyone else is paying since he has nothing to compare the price to. Thus there is no price competition. He either accepts Johnny's offer and gets taken for a 50m ec ride or he declines. Either way it's a lose lose situation for Joe. Now if the cap is raised, Joe can check the exchange to see if that's really a deal or not. When he checks the exchange he sees 5 other ships listed at 600m and below. Thus Joe has options now. He can either take Johnny's overpriced offer and get taken for a ride, or he can pick from one of the 5 other ships on the exchange. Thus Joe gets to see more of the market.
If for example right now you wanted to buy a Temporal Science ship, there are almost always several of them on the exchange to pick from, thus you have options. With ships such as the Anorax and like ships, you never see the other options out there since they're in that gray area. All you see is one ship at one price. You either take that one single price or you leave it since you have literally no other options.
Wanting to get top dollar for your item is one thing, greed is something else entirely. The first is expected and normal. The second one is when people try to get more and more at the expense of TRIBBLE everyone else over. The first is cool, the second one is a jerk move.
I don't expect things to conform to my valuation of everything. However on the flip side of that, I do expect that certain people not be allowed too much control over the market and allowed to artificially inflate it, and essentially decide who gets to fly the ships and who doesn't. What I expect is a fair market and right now people can't even see what the market is.
Assuming the 1/750 chance is correct, getting a Vonph via buying keys would cost you 750 keys on average. The same 750 keys on the exchange are priced at 4 million apiece right now (actually even higher than that, but such a bulk sale would ruin prices somewhat), so 3 times what you need to buy a Vonph.
Yes, you would miss out on all the other shinies in the lockboxes. Including (on average) three of the herald flight deck Quas, which are worth a lot as well. And all the lobi which you could turn into lobi ships and sell them. So you're probably better off financially when gambling.
But: that is a lot more hassle if you only want your Vonph. Acquiring 750 lockboxes - they drop a lot but not that much. Opening them. Gathering all the stuff. Trying to sell it. Doing that often because of your inventory limit. And then you are not guaranteed a Vonph, which for most of us is a downside. Most people rather pay more and have a guarantee of success than gamble, even if gambling yields the higher expected value.
Although the Vonph is the rarer of the ship of the 2 in the box, that alone is not enough to account for the ridiculously high prices we're seeing on them. With any lockbox ship yes there will be gambling involved with it, that much is a given that neither of us debate. Suppose you wish to buy a Ferengi D'kora. we'll say for sake of argument it's going for 250m. Assuming as well 4m per key as to your example, that's 63 keys (rounded from 62.5) in value. Now let's say the ship has a 1/200 chance to drop from a box. That's 200 keys and boxes you'll need. 200 keys at 4m each is 800m worth of keys. That's enough to buy 3 D'koras and have 50m left.
I don't disagree a ton of people prefer to just cough up the ec for guaranteed succcess. With that in mind I have to play devil's advocate as the saying goes for a minute. By that line of logic of guaranteed success, why try opening boxes at all? You could end up getting more than one D'kora and you may end up getting none, that's the nature of gambling, but the potential payoff is there. It would cost more per the example I gave to get the keys than it would to just cough up the ec for the ship. With that being the case however we don't see any ships like the D'kora going for 1b ec, and the D'kora has been out for years.
A ship like the Voth Bulwark has a legitimate reason to go for a higher price because it's not been around for years and hasn't dropped for years. The Vonph on the other hand will always be around since it's tied into the Herald box. Rarity yes is a factor in prices but rarity alone is not enough to drive the Vonph as high as it is. Overall what's needed is options and certain market manipulators removed from the picture.
"Someone once told me that time was a predator that stalked us all our lives. I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey and reminds us to cherish every moment, because it will never come again." - Jean Luc Picard in Star Trek Generations
If people aren't paying more than 600m for an item, and you want 1b, it's not greed, its just stupidity. You end up getting nothing.
Prices are ultimately set by buyers, because it's impossible to sell something for a price buyers are unwilling to pay.
I don't know what you imagine 'price gouging' means, but it's hard to square it with some of the other statements made.
Monopolies aren't broken up for price gouging, they're broken up for being anti-competitive. They can undercut competitors and drive them out of business. That isn't something that can really happen with ships in this game.
The currency cap has no bearing on whether any price is reasonable at all. The currency cap is just an arbitrary number, it does not reflect any facts about the economy or the market at all. It's just a number picked out of a hat.
Prices for things are a function of facts about them, it isn't some really abstract thing, or people just making stuff up, its structural, it's rational, it's logical, it's easy to understand if you think about it correctly.
We agree on one thing at least, if someone wanting 1b for something only going for 600m it's stupidity. Though I would argue that's a combination of both greed and stupidity.
Normally you would be correct in the fact that prices are set by the buyers. However in this in this instance this with the Vonph this is not the case. As it sits right now with the ship being in that gray area, there is no competition on prices. People pay those stupid high prices because it's either cough up the ec or you don't get the ship. people are only seeing one price and have nothing to verify it against. If someone tells them the ship is going for 1b, then how is he supposed to verify that? All he sees is that one ship and for all he knows at the moment, the supply is one. So he either takes the jacked up price or he doesn't. In this instance because there is no competition and ability to compare prices it's far too easy for people to just demand what they want. Either way it's a lose lose for the buyer.
To give an example of price gouging. Suppose a store is selling gallons of milk for $2 per gallon. Price may fluctuate between $1.50-$3.50 per gallon normally per our example. However if the next day the store jacks the price up from $2 per gallon to $50 per gallon, that's price gouging. Another example being the guy that took that AIDS pill that was going for $7 a pill and jacked the price to over $1500 I believe it was. That's price gouging.
In the case of the game if we take a lockbox ship such as a D'kora (chosen ship is intentional as I'm sure you own one just as I do) and lets say it goes for 225m normally. Through artificial manipulation of the market the price shoots up to 700m over night, that's price gouging. You can say it doesn't happen, but we both know that there are instances when it has.
Price gouging isn't the only reason monopolies aren't allowed and are broken up but you know it's a factor. Aside from that you are correct that the chief reason is being anti-competition. People having near monopolies is the problem we have now. Certain individuals having too much influence over the market. No person or group of persons should have the influence that these people do. No one should be able to artificially push the price of keys and ships as high as these people have.
Currency caps are put into place to protect players and for the security of the game. Currency caps are one specific thing that can be used to make sure that no one toon can hold an infinite amount of currency. This is beneficial as it makes it harder for gold sellers to transfer large amounts of a currency at once. Yes they still do transfer large amounts ec and what not but the caps make it harder than it otherwise would normally be. Currency caps also allow a bit of a guard against inflation by limiting the amount of currency a single toon/person can hold. it places a limit on the supply. Yes people can simply make more toons to get around this limit but that's only a temporary solution, eventually they will run out of space to store all that currency.
Considering the amount of market manipulation I see you doing (not nearly as much as others but still quite a bit) you're not in a very good position to say that the cap has no bearing on if a price is reasonable or not. 1b ec is quite a bit of ec and can buy you most anything you could possibly want in game. A Voth Bulwark or a similar item are the only things in game that have any reason to be near that cap considering that that Bulwarks haven't been distributed in years now. A Vonph will always be available as it's tied into the Herald lockbox. the Herald lockbox will always be available through box reruns and so on even after it goes out of being the current box. With that in mind there's not one legitimate reason for a Vonph to go for the currency cap in game. It's pure out greed.
Prices very much can be people making things up, to suggest that someone can't just bullcrap a price is ludicrous. Whether or not they'll actually get that price is a different story entirely.
The problem right now, certain individuals having far too much control of the market and near monopoly on certain ships. You'll never convince me it was intended for people to be allowed that much control over the market that they could collapse it on a whim if they wanted. As well these people can pretty much dictate who flies the ships and who doesn't by manipulating the market, thus TRIBBLE over in the game. To expect top dollar is one thing, to manipulate the market to the point that it's being manipulated now is bonkers and something needs to be done about it.
"Someone once told me that time was a predator that stalked us all our lives. I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey and reminds us to cherish every moment, because it will never come again." - Jean Luc Picard in Star Trek Generations
Well if it's a 'free market' why stop at a billion? Make the limit a 'bazillion' and call it a day.
At a certain point you're going to run into technical problems. For example the maximum amount of copper stored on a character in WoW was 2147483646 copper for a long, because they were using a 32-bit integer to store the amount. They system simply couldn't handle a number bigger than 2^31-1. So, while probably being able to handle numbers higher than that nowadays, every digit added takes up more space (even those bytes will add up) and therenfore makes it more expensive to store and it takes longer for the system to handle it. While we are far from reaching the "hard cap", the ksy isn't the limit, technical issues are.
Imho it would make sense for Cryptic to just divide every monetary value by at least 100. There isn't much below the value of 100 EC anyways, so it'd free some space and remove strain on the system.
Like I said you can call that price whatever you want, I'm not going to argue semantics.
The problem here is that the concepts you are using have actual names in economic theory. So maybe that is the problem for me here. But insofar it isn't semantics, since a true price describes an inherent quality of an object, but whatever, let's move on.
In the market there is a price point at which the vast majority of people buy things at. That much I would hope you can agree on is that such a price exists. Getting back into our examples now. If our Anorax is selling at 600m 99% of the time, but you have 4 oddball deals at, 550m, 575m, 625m and 650m,
Talking about set up manors: this isn't what the market for the Annorax looks like. First: prices would be way more over the place - not necessarily in range but in the numbers. So determining a "market price" wouldn't be that simple. Should it be mean (if so, which one?), median, mode? But why wouldn't it be that simple? Because there is no market of 400 Annoraxes. Which in turn means that
people can ask what they want for an item all day long, but that does NOT mean they will get that asking price.
while technically true still means a lot of people will get more than the previously established market price. The problem here is that I do not have two basic options as a seller (ask for a price driven by the market, ask for a price I consider adequate) but also the option of keeping my stuff. Insofar a collectors market is different from the one producing goods faces (well, it is similar for professional dealers, but I guess we both are players not gold spammers in disguise here). If I produce a beer and cannot sell it for $2 per bottle, I have to sell it for less or be out of business. If I own a collectable item, I can easily refrain from selling it at all. I am not asking for 800M because I want to get more out of it but because I do not think that 600M would be equally nice for me. So I do not have to be a seller in the first place so I can say "okay, then I am flying the ship myself". Or keeping it, just as a collectible in a collection, which apparently quite a few people are doing.
at the end of the day items are worth what they're worth.
You will call this "semantics" again, but items sell for the price they sell for. Items like the Annorax do not have an inherent worth but only your individual understanding of them determines what you would like to pay for them or to sell them for (which by the way may be two totally different numbers themselves)
The problem is when people get greedy and TRIBBLE over everyone else in the game by manipulating the market.
Completely agreed. But the way you are wording parts of what you write I got the (wrong?) impression that you want to accuse everybody who asks for more than an (non existent) market price of somehow manipulating the market or doing something otherwise uneconomic which could be stopped or should be stopped.
As it stands now, market manipulation may even become easier with the exchange cap gone, depending on how much financial power (ecs) these players actually have they could buy up the competition and sell at a higher price. Because if you can sell something easily (say: within a week) for 600M the chances are that you will also be able to sell it with quite some margin on top of that if you take some time. This of course is not guaranteed, and as we all know selling something at the going rate does not always guarantee you sell it because buyers are not interested to buy at the price sellers imagine (look at the market for infused artifacts), but if people do have the market power they will probably try it. The problem is that on this market demand is vastly higher than supply and the normal effect of "supply will rise then because it becomes more interesting for new competitors to enter the market" isn't going to happen here.
As it sits right now these people are essentially able to control who gets to fly the ship and who doesn't which is complete hogwash. No individual or group of individuals should ever have that much control like they do now. As it sits now there is no competition.
And this is true: nobody should have that power. But it will almost always be like that. It has been since the medieval ages, it is like that now in real life in quite a few markets. Yes, there are remedies for that in setting an economic framework that hinders it (not regarding the often detrimental effects some of these remedies may have otherwise), but the exchange as is is supporting this - regardless of cap limit.
There is nothing for people to compare prices to. I know I've repeated this example a great deal as well but it's a very true example. Suppose Joe Shmoe is looking to buy an Anorax. Our hypothetical Anorax is going for 600m. Johnny 2x4 walks up to Joe and offers him an Anorax for 650m. As it sits now, Joe has no way of knowing that's 50m above what everyone else is paying since he has nothing to compare the price to.
Again, the 600M I doubt. Look at the exchange prices of some of the goods in scarce supply, say Xindi doffs: the amounts asked can differ vastly (and I don't mean some silly prices like some set up in case anybody misclicks). Yes, Joe may find a cheaper Annorax but that doesn't force Joe to lower his price because he can be pretty certain that Jimmy steps up and buys his stuff.
I don't disagree a ton of people prefer to just cough up the ec for guaranteed succcess. With that in mind I have to play devil's advocate as the saying goes for a minute. By that line of logic of guaranteed success, why try opening boxes at all? You could end up getting more than one D'kora and you may end up getting none, that's the nature of gambling, but the potential payoff is there. It would cost more per the example I gave to get the keys than it would to just cough up the ec for the ship. With that being the case however we don't see any ships like the D'kora going for 1b ec, and the D'kora has been out for years.
A ship like the Voth Bulwark has a legitimate reason to go for a higher price because it's not been around for years and hasn't dropped for years. The Vonph on the other hand will always be around since it's tied into the Herald box. Rarity yes is a factor in prices but rarity alone is not enough to drive the Vonph as high as it is. Overall what's needed is options and certain market manipulators removed from the picture.
What drives the prices up now is of course also people wanting to have one right now, for whatever reason (because they can, because they have everything else in the game). But it also is a top of the line ship, which increases prices. A just as rare "Miranda/B'rel requisition pack for the opposite faction" wouldn't fetch these prices, you are correct. Because you wouldn't want them except as a OCD collector or for curiosities sake. But the Vonph is a shiny new thing, people want it, and if they want it, 1 billion on the exchange is on average cheaper than unboxing the ships yourself.
As for why some people still bother unboxing at all? Attitudes towards gambling are different, while most prefer a "sure thing deal", some don't mind as much, some may actually like it. Some may not be "only after the Vonph" but have an interest in other things in the box. Some may want the Lobi. And some may do it because you may be able to (I don't have the numbers) make a profit from it when you unbox and sell the single items compared to just selling the keys, in other words: work for ec. Although this as well contains some gambling, because if you unbox rubbish you may lose money, but if you do it regularily, maybe not.
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
I think the solution would be to raise the exchange cap to even multi-billions AND add a 10% posting fee. Like in NW.
That would make an interesting metagame of how much the comfort of exchange would worth for you lol...
Lol, the 10% posting fee would probably be enough to make people think twice about posting items in the Exchange for ridiculous prices and also get under control some of the idiots who game the market by undercutting with loads of 999 items that they never expect to sell.
Going back to OP... I think a better solution would be to replace the 500m Exchange-wide cap with a per-item mark-up limit. Nearly everything already has a "MSRP" attached to it (bottom-right corner of the item's mouse-over box). How about a limit of MSRP +/-100%? Even in open-market capitalistic societies (most of the developed western world), we have consumer protection laws that prevent price-gouging and unfair trades. It makes sense, to me, that a virtual economy might want to emulate the same type of things.
The number listed in the item description is like its scrap value, it's what you get for trashing/recycling it. It has no relation or connection to its value to people.
I disagree... the number listed is Cryptic's idea of what the value was intended to be. It's "resale" value is between 25-60% of the listed price (depending on where you sell it). It's "scrap" value (what you get for recycling into the replicator) is between 0-40%.
Who told you that?
I actually think that even the opposite was explicitly stated in some tutorial window or mouseover, that the "worth" only determines sale price and similar but has nothing to do with the actual usefulness of said item. Can't check now though.
My mother was an epohh and my father smelled of tulaberries
Man the walls of text in this thread.I was, blame the seller, blame cryptic, blame free market, etc etc.
I blame the buyer. I have a fleetmate that just has to have every ship in this game. He will talk about the new ship, over and over. When he does get it, he complains how broke he is.
I asked him once why he couldn't be happy with the ships he already has, his answer, "I can't have someone have something I don't"
There are buyers willing to anything to get the latest and greatest. I bet if you check gold sites, the vogh will be listed.
I still support raising the exchange price cap, a while ago I was in a trade channel trying to get a bulk purchase of items and the seller was talking to me like a used car salesman.
The problem here is that the concepts you are using have actual names in economic theory. So maybe that is the problem for me here. But insofar it isn't semantics, since a true price describes an inherent quality of an object, but whatever, let's move on.
Like I said I'm not going to argue semantics. Whatever we choose to call certain things they exist. we simply use different names for the same thing.
Talking about set up manors: this isn't what the market for the Annorax looks like. First: prices would be way more over the place - not necessarily in range but in the numbers. So determining a "market price" wouldn't be that simple. Should it be mean (if so, which one?), median, mode? But why wouldn't it be that simple? Because there is no market of 400 Annoraxes. Which in turn means that
I never claimed that my example was anything but an example. I've said several times that my example deals with a hyopthetical Anorax. If attacking my hypothetical example because "this isn't what the market looks like" is the best you can come up with then you show that you have nothing to rebut this point. my example is meant to demonstrate the possibilities in a market and is not meant to be an exact representation, only a demonstration. The numbers I chose were meant to keep things simple. Determining a market price is actually very simple as I've already explained. If in our hypothetical market 99% of the population is buying the Anorax at 600m, then that is our market price. Yes you will see a few instances where It goes for higher or lower, but those are just flukes in the market, nothing more.
while technically true still means a lot of people will get more than the previously established market price. The problem here is that I do not have two basic options as a seller (ask for a price driven by the market, ask for a price I consider adequate) but also the option of keeping my stuff. Insofar a collectors market is different from the one producing goods faces (well, it is similar for professional dealers, but I guess we both are players not gold spammers in disguise here). If I produce a beer and cannot sell it for $2 per bottle, I have to sell it for less or be out of business. If I own a collectable item, I can easily refrain from selling it at all. I am not asking for 800M because I want to get more out of it but because I do not think that 600M would be equally nice for me. So I do not have to be a seller in the first place so I can say "okay, then I am flying the ship myself". Or keeping it, just as a collectible in a collection, which apparently quite a few people are doing.
No one is saying you have to sell the ship, that's the point as it's an optional thing. The debate is over people who have decided to sell. With that in mind, as I've said, you can ask the moon for your ship but by no means are you guaranteed to get that price. As I said items sell for what they sell for. Going back to another example I used in a previous post. Suppose you have an old collectible baseball card. You decide to sell it and you ask $400 for it. If you're asking $400 but they're only selling for $200, then the value of the card is $200 and you're overpriced. You may feel it's worth $400 all day long and you're certainly free to ask that, but you're going to be waiting quite awhile to find a buyer. Same thing goes for our hypothetical Anorax, if it's selling for 600m, but you're asking 800m, then you're going to be waiting awhile for a buyer.
You will call this "semantics" again, but items sell for the price they sell for. Items like the Annorax do not have an inherent worth but only your individual understanding of them determines what you would like to pay for them or to sell them for (which by the way may be two totally different numbers themselves)
Although I partially addressed this above already this particular thing demanded extra attention. To suggest that they have no value is completely untrue. This value may not always remain the same but the ship itself will always have a value of something. As I've said to others in this thread, there's nothing wrong with wanting top dollar for something. The problem is when it turns into full on greed.
Completely agreed. But the way you are wording parts of what you write I got the (wrong?) impression that you want to accuse everybody who asks for more than an (non existent) market price of somehow manipulating the market or doing something otherwise uneconomic which could be stopped or should be stopped.
As it stands now, market manipulation may even become easier with the exchange cap gone, depending on how much financial power (ecs) these players actually have they could buy up the competition and sell at a higher price. Because if you can sell something easily (say: within a week) for 600M the chances are that you will also be able to sell it with quite some margin on top of that if you take some time. This of course is not guaranteed, and as we all know selling something at the going rate does not always guarantee you sell it because buyers are not interested to buy at the price sellers imagine (look at the market for infused artifacts), but if people do have the market power they will probably try it. The problem is that on this market demand is vastly higher than supply and the normal effect of "supply will rise then because it becomes more interesting for new competitors to enter the market" isn't going to happen here.
Like it or not a market price exists for certain items. This price can change but it exists nevertheless. Removing the cap on the exchange will allow the exchange to match the existing 1b cap that a toon can carry. The cap on the exchange right now of 500m is what encourages people to sell the Anorax and Vonph outside the exchange, which is part of what's created the problem we have now. Using our hypothetical Anorax again that sells for 600m, since it can't be sold on the exchange as it exceeds the limit, the only place it can be sold is in these gray areas where it's easy to manipulate the market. In these gray areas you can't see other prices and you have nothing to compare it to. By upping the limit back to 1b our hypothetical Anorax for the most part will be pulled back onto the exchange. Since people will be able to use the exchange you know they're going to list there. No not all 100% of them will hit the exchange, but quite a few of them will. Since they'll hit the exchange there will be something for people to compare prices to. Right now they dont' have that. Yes you will see some items listed at 1b but as you've said, they don't have to buy them. the point behind this is it gives people options. having options is not a bad thing.
And this is true: nobody should have that power. But it will almost always be like that. It has been since the medieval ages, it is like that now in real life in quite a few markets. Yes, there are remedies for that in setting an economic framework that hinders it (not regarding the often detrimental effects some of these remedies may have otherwise), but the exchange as is is supporting this - regardless of cap limit.
You say that no one should have that power (which we both agree on) but you fail to recognize the true cause of this. The problem is people have no way of knowing what the market is, as I said above. They have nothing to compare prices to, which is one thing the exchange provides, multiple pricing options. By allowing these trades to stay in the gray area you discourage competition as there are no competing prices. All the buyer ever sees is one price in the gray areas. On the exchange it's very difficult for someone to artificially manipulate the market, because the moment they jack up the prices, they're going to get undercut big time. In the gray area it's impossible to undercut as you don't know what everyone else is selling for. It's to the point now with certain people manipulating that yes something needs to be done.
Again, the 600M I doubt. Look at the exchange prices of some of the goods in scarce supply, say Xindi doffs: the amounts asked can differ vastly (and I don't mean some silly prices like some set up in case anybody misclicks). Yes, Joe may find a cheaper Annorax but that doesn't force Joe to lower his price because he can be pretty certain that Jimmy steps up and buys his stuff.
Like I said the 600m for our hypothetical Anorax is just that, an example. Again you're attacking my example for not using the real market but using a hypothetical one. As I explained earlier the numbers I chose were to keep it all simple as possible, nothing more. If in the example as I've given several times now, Joe Shmoe is offered an Anorax at 650m by Johnny 2x4, but they're only going for 600m, then assuming Joe knows this, Johnny is going to have to lower his price or wait a good while before he finds a buyer since he's overpriced. Unless people just don't care and are the type that have more money than they do common sense, they're not going to buy the most expensive offer. In too many instances it's easy to game the market and TRIBBLE people over as there is no options.[/quote]
What drives the prices up now is of course also people wanting to have one right now, for whatever reason (because they can, because they have everything else in the game). But it also is a top of the line ship, which increases prices. A just as rare "Miranda/B'rel requisition pack for the opposite faction" wouldn't fetch these prices, you are correct. Because you wouldn't want them except as a OCD collector or for curiosities sake. But the Vonph is a shiny new thing, people want it, and if they want it, 1 billion on the exchange is on average cheaper than unboxing the ships yourself.
As for why some people still bother unboxing at all? Attitudes towards gambling are different, while most prefer a "sure thing deal", some don't mind as much, some may actually like it. Some may not be "only after the Vonph" but have an interest in other things in the box. Some may want the Lobi. And some may do it because you may be able to (I don't have the numbers) make a profit from it when you unbox and sell the single items compared to just selling the keys, in other words: work for ec. Although this as well contains some gambling, because if you unbox rubbish you may lose money, but if you do it regularily, maybe not.
I'm going to borrow an example from another post to another person I made in here since your argument is similar to his. Suppose you wish to purchase a Ferengi D'kora and when you go to purchase the ship it's selling for 250m. If we assume the ship has a 1/200 chance to drop then that's 200 boxes and 200 keys to get the ship assuming you try to pull it on your own. 200 keys at the current going rate of 4m per key is 800m. It would cost you more to buy up the keys than it would to just cough up the ec. By the time you bought all the keys you could by 3 of our hypothetical D'kora and have 50m left over. that same 250m is 63 keys in value (rounded from 62.5). Why even try to pull our hypothetical D'kora when you could just cough up the ec. You could very well get more than one D'kora if you pulled the 200 lockboxes, but you may also get flipped the finger by the rng gods as well. People do it for the potential payoff which is there and not something that can simply be dismissed. You may get the ship and you may not. Yet despite all of this you don't see lockbox ships going for anywhere near that amount of ec. There are almost always several of the ships to pick from as well when you pull up the exchange.
The Vonph being new yes is a factor, but the Vonph will always be around since it's tied to the lockboxes and will always be obtainable due to the box re-runs. There is no legitimate reason for that ship to be going that high at all. What you're witnessing is artificial market manipulation by greedy individuals that are out only for themselves that's TRIBBLE over the entire game.
The other thing to keep in mind that HE DOESN'T NECESSARILY KNOW EITHER! As far as that guy knows, it genuinely is 650. That's what he's heard, and that's what he knows. The truth is, most sellers are honest businessmen. They want to sell something at a fair price, and they want to sell more things. You can't sell more things if you earn yourself a reputation as a shyster and a rip-off artist. But without some kind of ledger where one can see just where things are, nobody REALLY knows for sure what the price is anymore.
While this is true that it could actually be 650m the point you've missed is that there is no way to know. In this gray area you have just one price and one price only. Anyone can claim anything but it means nothing without proof. I can tell someone that a Mirror Star Cruiser is worth 1b ec, but if you have nothing to compare it to in order to verify that, you have no way of knowing if it is or if it isn't. That's the whole problem, the gray area makes it too easy for people to manipulate the market. The people who deserve to be labeled con-men never get their deserved reputation because you can't compare their prices to anything else. That's the entire point, no one is able to tell what the market actually is or isn't. If the ship is selling for 650m and he's selling it to you for that, you're getting market value. If it sells for 700m normally you're getting a great deal. If it sells for 600m and he's selling for 650m, you're getting taken for a 50m ec ride.
No one knowing the market is why the cap needs to go is so people can actually see what it is.
"Someone once told me that time was a predator that stalked us all our lives. I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey and reminds us to cherish every moment, because it will never come again." - Jean Luc Picard in Star Trek Generations
According to someone that had 4000+ boxes as data, the Vonph is about 1/400 and the Quas is about 1/160. There's a spreadsheet out there that's supposed to have the numbers but I don't have a link to it yet.
Price fixing in sto requires defending a fix, and defending a fix is done by buying any ship below the price you want to fix. This becomes very expensive very fast, and the risk of catastrophic loss increases the more you do it, as well as the size of your loss.
Not true at all. Price "fixing" in STO can be achieved to a certain degree by setting a new "floor". The leech is a perfect example. A few weeks back the leech was around the 65m mark. Someone started buying up everything below 120m. The end result once things settled is the new "floor" of around 85m. Takes a couple weeks to set a new floor and now the market believes that is what the price should be despite the fact that we just had a lockbox replay and so the supply is going to increase. Nor that there are 100s of them sitting in the inventories of those that have multiple accounts, dozens of alts on those accounts and of course a bunch of their own private fleets for all the storage.
Going back to OP... I think a better solution would be to replace the 500m Exchange-wide cap with a per-item mark-up limit. Nearly everything already has a "MSRP" attached to it (bottom-right corner of the item's mouse-over box). How about a limit of MSRP +/-100%? Even in open-market capitalistic societies (most of the developed western world), we have consumer protection laws that prevent price-gouging and unfair trades. It makes sense, to me, that a virtual economy might want to emulate the same type of things.
The number listed in the item description is like its scrap value, it's what you get for trashing/recycling it. It has no relation or connection to its value to people.
I disagree... the number listed is Cryptic's idea of what the value was intended to be. It's "resale" value is between 25-60% of the listed price (depending on where you sell it). It's "scrap" value (what you get for recycling into the replicator) is between 0-40%.
Who told you that?
Nobody. My statement about Cryptic's intent was inferred through deductive reasoning. The "resale" and "scrap" statements, I figured out via trial and error.
I actually think that even the opposite was explicitly stated in some tutorial window or mouseover, that the "worth" only determines sale price and similar but has nothing to do with the actual usefulness of said item. Can't check now though.
I think you just tried to contradict what I said by restating exactly what I said. "Value determines sale price"... uhhh, YEAH! Furthermore, the NPC vendors, depending on who you're buying from, will sell at a cost between 75% of the listed value [aka MSRP] (from special vendors and cargo vessels) to 150% of the MSRP (from the Replicator). If you pay attention, you'll also notice, when in the shop's UI window, items are specifically identified by PRICE and VALUE separately. I stand by my earlier statement.
Just in case there are some who are unfamiliar with the term: MSRP means "Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price".
Comments
PWE is bleeding money with all these sellers able to make face to face trades, giving lockbox prizes and EC. Eliminating player to player direct trade would solve alot of problems. Also, a good EC sink would be duty officer assignment: 200.000 EC for 10 contraband, cooldown 4 hours; dilitium is capped at 8k refinement/day anyway.
And it has been explained by more than one person more than once why this isn't necessarily the case.
The reasoning for it is that transparency would help buyers (and sellers alike) see how others value your items. This I agree on. It then states that there would be a competition between sellers to get their stuff to other people. And this does not necessarily work, since there is no real competition. There is a large enough market to swallow all the Annoraxes generated by the game (to keep our example intact). So if there are a couple of 600M "cheapskate sellers", I'll just wait out until they sold their stuff, and then when people are still craving their Annorax I am coming to the rescue, for the cheap and fair price of 850M. And there would still be potential buyers around.
Granted, it could somewhat stabilize the prizes if the first cheaper buyers were the one willing to dish out the most. But that's a big "if" and would rely on chance.
On a different vein, there is also the misconception that a lower price would get people a shot at acquiring the ship. Well, a shot yes, but a very long shot. Even IF the price somehow goes down to whatever is considered reasonable and even IF that wouldn't discourage sellers and even IF it wouldn't encourage more potential buyers, there would still be a lot of potential buyers per ship.
That would make an interesting metagame of how much the comfort of exchange would worth for you lol...
You can call it whatever you wish but the point being this price exists. This is what things are going for. You're factually correct in the fact that you don't have to sell for the exact market value of the ship. You can sell for less if you just want to get rid of it. You can also ask for more than value. However you're not guaranteed to get buyers if you go above that value. You can ask whatever you want for a price. I can ask 1b for a Mirror Star Cruiser if I want, but simply because I'm asking 1b does not mean I will get 1b. You're free to hold onto something in hopes that prices will go up if you think it's too low. In the time you hold on to that item however the price could bottom out.
You can call the the price whatever you wish but as I said above it exists. If something is selling at 600m but you want 1b, that's greed.
No one is expecting to get the Vonph for free or any ship for free for that matter. What people do expect however is that things are sold at a reasonable price. Demanding 1b for a ship that's still currently out is beyond ridiculous and beyond greedy.
Drop chance is only one part of the equation, but that alone does not justify the ridiculous pricing that I'm seeing. You can holler and scream rarity until you're blue in the face, but considering this ship will always be available through the lockbox there is no reason for it to shoot this high.
It also figures you would dismiss the price gouging truth considering you're one of the very people that are causing the issue to start with. You and a few others. Whatever you choose to call the ship or however you wish to do it, asking the currency cap for something is insane no matter the game.
Star Trek Online volunteer Community Moderator
There is a vast difference though between calling something a "market price" as opposed to a "true price". And the way you use it it is not just "name it as you want". The first is just observation what is happening on the market when everybody acts as they think it is appropriate. The second as you use it is prescribing what a price should be, even if based on some observations itself, because it deems other valuations of the items irrelevant. If 80% of the population are getting up between 7am and 8am, getting up at another time is not somehow "a wrong time", much the same as considering the market price too high or low is not somehow wrong. And no, if I am asking for a higher price then I am not guaranteed a buyer (though I am pretty certain in the case of the Annorax I would be - sadly I don't own a single lockbox ship). But maybe I don't want a buyer at 600M because I consider it to be worth more?
You are probably right that a lot of the people asking these prices are greedy. Then again, if people are willing to dole out that amount of money, why should I settle for less? Would you leave 200M lying on the floor if you could? And as I said, I could always consider the Annorax to just be worth more - not because I want more money just to have more money, but because I think I can get more fun out of the Annorax than out of whatever I would do with the 600M, which might change if somebody upped the 600 to 800. Just because a market price exists does not mean it has to be compliant with my valuation (I know I am repeating myself here but that really is a difference not only in name). The same holds true for the buyer side as well. Just because the Annorax sells at 800M I don't have to consider that a fair price (as you do, so we are in the same boat here) and even though I'd like to have one I am not forced to pay that much.
The basis of any economic theory of a (mostly) free market by the way is that every participant tries to optimize his or her utility. In other words: greed.
Doesn't it? It may do.
Assuming the 1/750 chance is correct, getting a Vonph via buying keys would cost you 750 keys on average. The same 750 keys on the exchange are priced at 4 million apiece right now (actually even higher than that, but such a bulk sale would ruin prices somewhat), so 3 times what you need to buy a Vonph.
Yes, you would miss out on all the other shinies in the lockboxes. Including (on average) three of the herald flight deck Quas, which are worth a lot as well. And all the lobi which you could turn into lobi ships and sell them. So you're probably better off financially when gambling.
But: that is a lot more hassle if you only want your Vonph. Acquiring 750 lockboxes - they drop a lot but not that much. Opening them. Gathering all the stuff. Trying to sell it. Doing that often because of your inventory limit. And then you are not guaranteed a Vonph, which for most of us is a downside. Most people rather pay more and have a guarantee of success than gamble, even if gambling yields the higher expected value.
I could see that some sellers would be willing to accept a lower amount for the convenience for the exchange, but that would already be in place.
However, the supply and demand numbers are to be taken in relation to one another. So the difference between 3 sellers and 5 sellers is only of importance if there aren't enough buyers around for the ships. I don't know whether that is the case, but in that case the power would lie more with the buyers already. Generally speaking, if you only have 3 or 5 or even 10 sellers, price competition isn't working anymore (assuming enough potential buyers), because for that we would need a polypoly. In economic practice it happens way more often that the cheapest offer realizes he can still be the cheapest if he rises the price than that the others would drop theirs. And especially when, as in this case, the competitors have only a limited supply (usually "1"), the others can wait out until the competitor disappears. Of course we are still bound by what buyers are willing to give us, but that we can almost certainly get completely as sellers.
Also the "online at the same time" is only valid if you want your Annorax now. With an investion like this, it would be prudent to check out the market. And then you will meet a fourth seller. (The fifth is at the other end of the world). Similar only if you want to sell your Annorax now or don't believe it will fetch the 200M more you would accept the competition.
Heck, even in markets where there actually is a decent supply you can post your stuff by quite a bit above the current market value and still stand a very good chance of selling it. With more unique items, like a lot of the rarer doffs, prices may vary vastly.
That is actually an interesting aspect I hadn't considered. Due to it being more difficult to trade in the first place, the price might artificially raise.
Like I said you can call that price whatever you want, I'm not going to argue semantics.
The analogy you've laid out also is not comparable to a market in the manor you've set it up. In this instance you're trying to compare the time of day people wake up to a market and the setup does not work.
In the market there is a price point at which the vast majority of people buy things at. That much I would hope you can agree on is that such a price exists. Getting back into our examples now. If our Anorax is selling at 600m 99% of the time, but you have 4 oddball deals at, 550m, 575m, 625m and 650m, those 4 oddball deals are not wrong prices, as you're trying to accuse me of calling them. Those are simply flukes. 2 people got great deals, the other 2 overpaid. Whatever you choose to call it, 600m is the value, true price, or what have you of the Anorax in this case. Using our oddball deals the 550m, and the 575m ships were underpriced and the people who bought them at that price got a great deal. The 2 people who bought at 625m and 650m bought overpriced ships. So in this instances yes 600m is the true price, value, or what have you.
Like I've said several times now, people can ask what they want for an item all day long, but that does NOT mean they will get that asking price. If for example you have an old baseball card that you're asking $400 for, but similar cards like yours are only going for $200, then you're overpriced and have a bad price on your card. In this case you can ask $400 all day long for that card but you're going to be waiting a long time. If for example a Mirror Star Cruiser is selling for 2m, I can hold out for more because I think it's worth more, but at the end of the day items are worth what they're worth. If they never start selling above 2m then I'm wasting my time by trying to get more than 2m.
People want to get top dollar for their items and I get that. Wanting top dollar however is not the problem here. The problem is that currently the market is being artificially inflated and manipulated by certain greedy people who have far too much influence and control over it. The problem isn't that people want top dollar as I said. The problem is when people get greedy and TRIBBLE over everyone else in the game by manipulating the market. As it sits right now these people are essentially able to control who gets to fly the ship and who doesn't which is complete hogwash. No individual or group of individuals should ever have that much control like they do now. As it sits now there is no competition. There is nothing for people to compare prices to. I know I've repeated this example a great deal as well but it's a very true example. Suppose Joe Shmoe is looking to buy an Anorax. Our hypothetical Anorax is going for 600m. Johnny 2x4 walks up to Joe and offers him an Anorax for 650m. As it sits now, Joe has no way of knowing that's 50m above what everyone else is paying since he has nothing to compare the price to. Thus there is no price competition. He either accepts Johnny's offer and gets taken for a 50m ec ride or he declines. Either way it's a lose lose situation for Joe. Now if the cap is raised, Joe can check the exchange to see if that's really a deal or not. When he checks the exchange he sees 5 other ships listed at 600m and below. Thus Joe has options now. He can either take Johnny's overpriced offer and get taken for a ride, or he can pick from one of the 5 other ships on the exchange. Thus Joe gets to see more of the market.
If for example right now you wanted to buy a Temporal Science ship, there are almost always several of them on the exchange to pick from, thus you have options. With ships such as the Anorax and like ships, you never see the other options out there since they're in that gray area. All you see is one ship at one price. You either take that one single price or you leave it since you have literally no other options.
Wanting to get top dollar for your item is one thing, greed is something else entirely. The first is expected and normal. The second one is when people try to get more and more at the expense of TRIBBLE everyone else over. The first is cool, the second one is a jerk move.
I don't expect things to conform to my valuation of everything. However on the flip side of that, I do expect that certain people not be allowed too much control over the market and allowed to artificially inflate it, and essentially decide who gets to fly the ships and who doesn't. What I expect is a fair market and right now people can't even see what the market is.
Although the Vonph is the rarer of the ship of the 2 in the box, that alone is not enough to account for the ridiculously high prices we're seeing on them. With any lockbox ship yes there will be gambling involved with it, that much is a given that neither of us debate. Suppose you wish to buy a Ferengi D'kora. we'll say for sake of argument it's going for 250m. Assuming as well 4m per key as to your example, that's 63 keys (rounded from 62.5) in value. Now let's say the ship has a 1/200 chance to drop from a box. That's 200 keys and boxes you'll need. 200 keys at 4m each is 800m worth of keys. That's enough to buy 3 D'koras and have 50m left.
I don't disagree a ton of people prefer to just cough up the ec for guaranteed succcess. With that in mind I have to play devil's advocate as the saying goes for a minute. By that line of logic of guaranteed success, why try opening boxes at all? You could end up getting more than one D'kora and you may end up getting none, that's the nature of gambling, but the potential payoff is there. It would cost more per the example I gave to get the keys than it would to just cough up the ec for the ship. With that being the case however we don't see any ships like the D'kora going for 1b ec, and the D'kora has been out for years.
A ship like the Voth Bulwark has a legitimate reason to go for a higher price because it's not been around for years and hasn't dropped for years. The Vonph on the other hand will always be around since it's tied into the Herald box. Rarity yes is a factor in prices but rarity alone is not enough to drive the Vonph as high as it is. Overall what's needed is options and certain market manipulators removed from the picture.
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We agree on one thing at least, if someone wanting 1b for something only going for 600m it's stupidity. Though I would argue that's a combination of both greed and stupidity.
Normally you would be correct in the fact that prices are set by the buyers. However in this in this instance this with the Vonph this is not the case. As it sits right now with the ship being in that gray area, there is no competition on prices. People pay those stupid high prices because it's either cough up the ec or you don't get the ship. people are only seeing one price and have nothing to verify it against. If someone tells them the ship is going for 1b, then how is he supposed to verify that? All he sees is that one ship and for all he knows at the moment, the supply is one. So he either takes the jacked up price or he doesn't. In this instance because there is no competition and ability to compare prices it's far too easy for people to just demand what they want. Either way it's a lose lose for the buyer.
To give an example of price gouging. Suppose a store is selling gallons of milk for $2 per gallon. Price may fluctuate between $1.50-$3.50 per gallon normally per our example. However if the next day the store jacks the price up from $2 per gallon to $50 per gallon, that's price gouging. Another example being the guy that took that AIDS pill that was going for $7 a pill and jacked the price to over $1500 I believe it was. That's price gouging.
In the case of the game if we take a lockbox ship such as a D'kora (chosen ship is intentional as I'm sure you own one just as I do) and lets say it goes for 225m normally. Through artificial manipulation of the market the price shoots up to 700m over night, that's price gouging. You can say it doesn't happen, but we both know that there are instances when it has.
Price gouging isn't the only reason monopolies aren't allowed and are broken up but you know it's a factor. Aside from that you are correct that the chief reason is being anti-competition. People having near monopolies is the problem we have now. Certain individuals having too much influence over the market. No person or group of persons should have the influence that these people do. No one should be able to artificially push the price of keys and ships as high as these people have.
Currency caps are put into place to protect players and for the security of the game. Currency caps are one specific thing that can be used to make sure that no one toon can hold an infinite amount of currency. This is beneficial as it makes it harder for gold sellers to transfer large amounts of a currency at once. Yes they still do transfer large amounts ec and what not but the caps make it harder than it otherwise would normally be. Currency caps also allow a bit of a guard against inflation by limiting the amount of currency a single toon/person can hold. it places a limit on the supply. Yes people can simply make more toons to get around this limit but that's only a temporary solution, eventually they will run out of space to store all that currency.
Considering the amount of market manipulation I see you doing (not nearly as much as others but still quite a bit) you're not in a very good position to say that the cap has no bearing on if a price is reasonable or not. 1b ec is quite a bit of ec and can buy you most anything you could possibly want in game. A Voth Bulwark or a similar item are the only things in game that have any reason to be near that cap considering that that Bulwarks haven't been distributed in years now. A Vonph will always be available as it's tied into the Herald lockbox. the Herald lockbox will always be available through box reruns and so on even after it goes out of being the current box. With that in mind there's not one legitimate reason for a Vonph to go for the currency cap in game. It's pure out greed.
Prices very much can be people making things up, to suggest that someone can't just bullcrap a price is ludicrous. Whether or not they'll actually get that price is a different story entirely.
The problem right now, certain individuals having far too much control of the market and near monopoly on certain ships. You'll never convince me it was intended for people to be allowed that much control over the market that they could collapse it on a whim if they wanted. As well these people can pretty much dictate who flies the ships and who doesn't by manipulating the market, thus TRIBBLE over in the game. To expect top dollar is one thing, to manipulate the market to the point that it's being manipulated now is bonkers and something needs to be done about it.
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At a certain point you're going to run into technical problems. For example the maximum amount of copper stored on a character in WoW was 2147483646 copper for a long, because they were using a 32-bit integer to store the amount. They system simply couldn't handle a number bigger than 2^31-1. So, while probably being able to handle numbers higher than that nowadays, every digit added takes up more space (even those bytes will add up) and therenfore makes it more expensive to store and it takes longer for the system to handle it. While we are far from reaching the "hard cap", the ksy isn't the limit, technical issues are.
Imho it would make sense for Cryptic to just divide every monetary value by at least 100. There isn't much below the value of 100 EC anyways, so it'd free some space and remove strain on the system.
The problem here is that the concepts you are using have actual names in economic theory. So maybe that is the problem for me here. But insofar it isn't semantics, since a true price describes an inherent quality of an object, but whatever, let's move on.
Talking about set up manors: this isn't what the market for the Annorax looks like. First: prices would be way more over the place - not necessarily in range but in the numbers. So determining a "market price" wouldn't be that simple. Should it be mean (if so, which one?), median, mode? But why wouldn't it be that simple? Because there is no market of 400 Annoraxes. Which in turn means that
while technically true still means a lot of people will get more than the previously established market price. The problem here is that I do not have two basic options as a seller (ask for a price driven by the market, ask for a price I consider adequate) but also the option of keeping my stuff. Insofar a collectors market is different from the one producing goods faces (well, it is similar for professional dealers, but I guess we both are players not gold spammers in disguise here). If I produce a beer and cannot sell it for $2 per bottle, I have to sell it for less or be out of business. If I own a collectable item, I can easily refrain from selling it at all. I am not asking for 800M because I want to get more out of it but because I do not think that 600M would be equally nice for me. So I do not have to be a seller in the first place so I can say "okay, then I am flying the ship myself". Or keeping it, just as a collectible in a collection, which apparently quite a few people are doing.
You will call this "semantics" again, but items sell for the price they sell for. Items like the Annorax do not have an inherent worth but only your individual understanding of them determines what you would like to pay for them or to sell them for (which by the way may be two totally different numbers themselves)
Completely agreed. But the way you are wording parts of what you write I got the (wrong?) impression that you want to accuse everybody who asks for more than an (non existent) market price of somehow manipulating the market or doing something otherwise uneconomic which could be stopped or should be stopped.
As it stands now, market manipulation may even become easier with the exchange cap gone, depending on how much financial power (ecs) these players actually have they could buy up the competition and sell at a higher price. Because if you can sell something easily (say: within a week) for 600M the chances are that you will also be able to sell it with quite some margin on top of that if you take some time. This of course is not guaranteed, and as we all know selling something at the going rate does not always guarantee you sell it because buyers are not interested to buy at the price sellers imagine (look at the market for infused artifacts), but if people do have the market power they will probably try it. The problem is that on this market demand is vastly higher than supply and the normal effect of "supply will rise then because it becomes more interesting for new competitors to enter the market" isn't going to happen here.
And this is true: nobody should have that power. But it will almost always be like that. It has been since the medieval ages, it is like that now in real life in quite a few markets. Yes, there are remedies for that in setting an economic framework that hinders it (not regarding the often detrimental effects some of these remedies may have otherwise), but the exchange as is is supporting this - regardless of cap limit.
Again, the 600M I doubt. Look at the exchange prices of some of the goods in scarce supply, say Xindi doffs: the amounts asked can differ vastly (and I don't mean some silly prices like some set up in case anybody misclicks). Yes, Joe may find a cheaper Annorax but that doesn't force Joe to lower his price because he can be pretty certain that Jimmy steps up and buys his stuff.
What drives the prices up now is of course also people wanting to have one right now, for whatever reason (because they can, because they have everything else in the game). But it also is a top of the line ship, which increases prices. A just as rare "Miranda/B'rel requisition pack for the opposite faction" wouldn't fetch these prices, you are correct. Because you wouldn't want them except as a OCD collector or for curiosities sake. But the Vonph is a shiny new thing, people want it, and if they want it, 1 billion on the exchange is on average cheaper than unboxing the ships yourself.
As for why some people still bother unboxing at all? Attitudes towards gambling are different, while most prefer a "sure thing deal", some don't mind as much, some may actually like it. Some may not be "only after the Vonph" but have an interest in other things in the box. Some may want the Lobi. And some may do it because you may be able to (I don't have the numbers) make a profit from it when you unbox and sell the single items compared to just selling the keys, in other words: work for ec. Although this as well contains some gambling, because if you unbox rubbish you may lose money, but if you do it regularily, maybe not.
Lol, the 10% posting fee would probably be enough to make people think twice about posting items in the Exchange for ridiculous prices and also get under control some of the idiots who game the market by undercutting with loads of 999 items that they never expect to sell.
I actually think that even the opposite was explicitly stated in some tutorial window or mouseover, that the "worth" only determines sale price and similar but has nothing to do with the actual usefulness of said item. Can't check now though.
I blame the buyer. I have a fleetmate that just has to have every ship in this game. He will talk about the new ship, over and over. When he does get it, he complains how broke he is.
I asked him once why he couldn't be happy with the ships he already has, his answer, "I can't have someone have something I don't"
There are buyers willing to anything to get the latest and greatest. I bet if you check gold sites, the vogh will be listed.
I still support raising the exchange price cap, a while ago I was in a trade channel trying to get a bulk purchase of items and the seller was talking to me like a used car salesman.
Again, 1%er problems; 1st World Galaxy problems....
Like I said I'm not going to argue semantics. Whatever we choose to call certain things they exist. we simply use different names for the same thing.
I never claimed that my example was anything but an example. I've said several times that my example deals with a hyopthetical Anorax. If attacking my hypothetical example because "this isn't what the market looks like" is the best you can come up with then you show that you have nothing to rebut this point. my example is meant to demonstrate the possibilities in a market and is not meant to be an exact representation, only a demonstration. The numbers I chose were meant to keep things simple. Determining a market price is actually very simple as I've already explained. If in our hypothetical market 99% of the population is buying the Anorax at 600m, then that is our market price. Yes you will see a few instances where It goes for higher or lower, but those are just flukes in the market, nothing more.
No one is saying you have to sell the ship, that's the point as it's an optional thing. The debate is over people who have decided to sell. With that in mind, as I've said, you can ask the moon for your ship but by no means are you guaranteed to get that price. As I said items sell for what they sell for. Going back to another example I used in a previous post. Suppose you have an old collectible baseball card. You decide to sell it and you ask $400 for it. If you're asking $400 but they're only selling for $200, then the value of the card is $200 and you're overpriced. You may feel it's worth $400 all day long and you're certainly free to ask that, but you're going to be waiting quite awhile to find a buyer. Same thing goes for our hypothetical Anorax, if it's selling for 600m, but you're asking 800m, then you're going to be waiting awhile for a buyer.
Although I partially addressed this above already this particular thing demanded extra attention. To suggest that they have no value is completely untrue. This value may not always remain the same but the ship itself will always have a value of something. As I've said to others in this thread, there's nothing wrong with wanting top dollar for something. The problem is when it turns into full on greed.
Like it or not a market price exists for certain items. This price can change but it exists nevertheless. Removing the cap on the exchange will allow the exchange to match the existing 1b cap that a toon can carry. The cap on the exchange right now of 500m is what encourages people to sell the Anorax and Vonph outside the exchange, which is part of what's created the problem we have now. Using our hypothetical Anorax again that sells for 600m, since it can't be sold on the exchange as it exceeds the limit, the only place it can be sold is in these gray areas where it's easy to manipulate the market. In these gray areas you can't see other prices and you have nothing to compare it to. By upping the limit back to 1b our hypothetical Anorax for the most part will be pulled back onto the exchange. Since people will be able to use the exchange you know they're going to list there. No not all 100% of them will hit the exchange, but quite a few of them will. Since they'll hit the exchange there will be something for people to compare prices to. Right now they dont' have that. Yes you will see some items listed at 1b but as you've said, they don't have to buy them. the point behind this is it gives people options. having options is not a bad thing.
You say that no one should have that power (which we both agree on) but you fail to recognize the true cause of this. The problem is people have no way of knowing what the market is, as I said above. They have nothing to compare prices to, which is one thing the exchange provides, multiple pricing options. By allowing these trades to stay in the gray area you discourage competition as there are no competing prices. All the buyer ever sees is one price in the gray areas. On the exchange it's very difficult for someone to artificially manipulate the market, because the moment they jack up the prices, they're going to get undercut big time. In the gray area it's impossible to undercut as you don't know what everyone else is selling for. It's to the point now with certain people manipulating that yes something needs to be done.
Like I said the 600m for our hypothetical Anorax is just that, an example. Again you're attacking my example for not using the real market but using a hypothetical one. As I explained earlier the numbers I chose were to keep it all simple as possible, nothing more. If in the example as I've given several times now, Joe Shmoe is offered an Anorax at 650m by Johnny 2x4, but they're only going for 600m, then assuming Joe knows this, Johnny is going to have to lower his price or wait a good while before he finds a buyer since he's overpriced. Unless people just don't care and are the type that have more money than they do common sense, they're not going to buy the most expensive offer. In too many instances it's easy to game the market and TRIBBLE people over as there is no options.[/quote]
I'm going to borrow an example from another post to another person I made in here since your argument is similar to his. Suppose you wish to purchase a Ferengi D'kora and when you go to purchase the ship it's selling for 250m. If we assume the ship has a 1/200 chance to drop then that's 200 boxes and 200 keys to get the ship assuming you try to pull it on your own. 200 keys at the current going rate of 4m per key is 800m. It would cost you more to buy up the keys than it would to just cough up the ec. By the time you bought all the keys you could by 3 of our hypothetical D'kora and have 50m left over. that same 250m is 63 keys in value (rounded from 62.5). Why even try to pull our hypothetical D'kora when you could just cough up the ec. You could very well get more than one D'kora if you pulled the 200 lockboxes, but you may also get flipped the finger by the rng gods as well. People do it for the potential payoff which is there and not something that can simply be dismissed. You may get the ship and you may not. Yet despite all of this you don't see lockbox ships going for anywhere near that amount of ec. There are almost always several of the ships to pick from as well when you pull up the exchange.
The Vonph being new yes is a factor, but the Vonph will always be around since it's tied to the lockboxes and will always be obtainable due to the box re-runs. There is no legitimate reason for that ship to be going that high at all. What you're witnessing is artificial market manipulation by greedy individuals that are out only for themselves that's TRIBBLE over the entire game.
While this is true that it could actually be 650m the point you've missed is that there is no way to know. In this gray area you have just one price and one price only. Anyone can claim anything but it means nothing without proof. I can tell someone that a Mirror Star Cruiser is worth 1b ec, but if you have nothing to compare it to in order to verify that, you have no way of knowing if it is or if it isn't. That's the whole problem, the gray area makes it too easy for people to manipulate the market. The people who deserve to be labeled con-men never get their deserved reputation because you can't compare their prices to anything else. That's the entire point, no one is able to tell what the market actually is or isn't. If the ship is selling for 650m and he's selling it to you for that, you're getting market value. If it sells for 700m normally you're getting a great deal. If it sells for 600m and he's selling for 650m, you're getting taken for a 50m ec ride.
No one knowing the market is why the cap needs to go is so people can actually see what it is.
Star Trek Online volunteer Community Moderator
According to someone that had 4000+ boxes as data, the Vonph is about 1/400 and the Quas is about 1/160. There's a spreadsheet out there that's supposed to have the numbers but I don't have a link to it yet.
Not true at all. Price "fixing" in STO can be achieved to a certain degree by setting a new "floor". The leech is a perfect example. A few weeks back the leech was around the 65m mark. Someone started buying up everything below 120m. The end result once things settled is the new "floor" of around 85m. Takes a couple weeks to set a new floor and now the market believes that is what the price should be despite the fact that we just had a lockbox replay and so the supply is going to increase. Nor that there are 100s of them sitting in the inventories of those that have multiple accounts, dozens of alts on those accounts and of course a bunch of their own private fleets for all the storage.
I think you just tried to contradict what I said by restating exactly what I said. "Value determines sale price"... uhhh, YEAH! Furthermore, the NPC vendors, depending on who you're buying from, will sell at a cost between 75% of the listed value [aka MSRP] (from special vendors and cargo vessels) to 150% of the MSRP (from the Replicator). If you pay attention, you'll also notice, when in the shop's UI window, items are specifically identified by PRICE and VALUE separately. I stand by my earlier statement.
Just in case there are some who are unfamiliar with the term: MSRP means "Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price".