Anniversary Pack Discussion

@Naeva

I think i lube you know b:dirty

b:shocked
20% off annipacks?
[IMG][/img]

It's still ONE gold!
b:chuckle

This thread is still going?

Impressive. XD

Quilue - Sanctuary wrote: »

I have missed 4 times in a row on mobs with 98% chance to hit.

If you are fighting a monster with a 98% chance to hit, and you miss, your odds are one in 50 that your next shot will miss, one in 2500 that your next two shots will miss, and one in 12500 that your next three shots will miss.

So... how much ammunition have you used, on monsters with a 98% to hit?

(But, also, if your real chance to hit a monster was 97.6%, how do you think the game displays that?)

Incarnata - Harshlands wrote: »

If you are fighting a monster with a 98% chance to hit, and you miss, your odds are one in 50 that your next shot will miss, one in 2500 that your next two shots will miss, and one in 12500 that your next three shots will miss.

So... how much ammunition have you used, on monsters with a 98% to hit?

(But, also, if your real chance to hit a monster was 97.6%, how do you think the game displays that?)

You see, this is where you are wrong. Percentages are a fun yet tricky item. If you were to roll a 4-sided die, you have a 25% chance of hitting a 4. Now if you roll that die again, what's the chance of hitting a 4? STILL 25% percent. Each hit is calculated individually and as such, if you are missing so much, you are just rolling a 1 or 2 on a 100-sided die a lot.

Sorry to be the spoiler of a good theory, however this has been proven many times in another game of chance that many people love to play. It's called Roulette. It isn't that the game has a faulty % system, it's that your luck on each INDIVIDUAL hit stinks. Sorry. b:sad

Quilue - Sanctuary wrote: »

so other than making announcements earlier, fix probability in this game.

People complain about probability all the time, because real random numbers don't match people's expectations of random numbers.

Real random numbers are notoriously "clumpy", at least that's how we tend to perceive them. There are plenty of studies where people are asked to generate lists of random numbers, but they can't do it. That's because people will almost always choose to balance their choices evenly instead.

So when I hear people complaining that the Anniversary Packs, or whatever, are picking favourites and that the random number generators must be broken, it's the exact same argument that has been around for the entire history of human civilization.

Purra_Pearl - Sanctuary wrote: »

Of course they're picking favorites. They're all picking NOT ME! b:angry

But I've proven time and time again I am not a lucky person. QQ

It's true. Just look at your fail Genie: 60/80 LP is the worst possible number of lucky points. Even your 55/80 Genie is better, because at least it's not mocking you by being exactly 1 point short of being the pretty 61 LP Genie you've been wanting so badly. b:chuckle

But on the other hand, wasn't it "lucky" that you were just able to buy a shiny new favourite-type 61/80 LP Genie with the profits from yesterday's 20%-off Anniversary Pack sale madness? Heck, the guy even set up RIGHT BESIDE you. The guy probably tried to name his shop, "Purra, here's your Genie", but the game wouldn't let him use that many characters.

Now you just need to level up to 83 so you can use it.

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Since the topic came up, when the outcomes are binary (e.g. hit/miss), the cumulative probabilities can be calculated with a binomial distribution. e.g. If I shot 4 times, what are the chances of getting 2 hits and 2 misses? Or 3 hits and 1 miss? I won't get into the math, you can google it if you're interested. As it happens, Excel has a BINOMDIST function which handles the math for you (you just need to understand what numbers to feed it).

Since the anniv packs are winding down, here are the probabilities to get one or multiple prizes (i.e. something besides regular luck tokens, which you get 97% of the time) based on number of packs you've opened. That is, if you open X packs, here are your chances of getting all luck tokens, 1 prize, 2 prizes, 3 prizes, and more than 3 prizes:

packs	0 prizes	1 prize	2 prizes	3 prizes	more prizes
5		85.9%	13.3%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
10		73.7%	22.8%	3.2%	0.3%	0.0%
20		54.4%	33.6%	9.9%	1.8%	0.3%
50		21.8%	33.7%	25.6%	12.6%	6.3%
100		4.8%	14.7%	22.5%	22.7%	35.3%
200		0.2%	1.4%	4.3%	8.8%	85.3%

In other words, if you opened just 5 packs, you have an 86% chance of getting nothing but luck tokens. If you open 50, you have a 22% chance of getting nothing but luck tokens. If you open 20 packs, you have a 34% chance to get exactly 1 non-luck token prize. If you open 200 packs, you have a 85% chance of getting 4+ prizes. etc.

From a risk-management perspective, I don't consider anniversary packs worth it unless you're able to buy at least 50 of them. Even then it's pretty risky (22% is a relatively high probability of ending up with nothing but luck tokens). 100+ is better, 200+ is best to mitigate the risk to what I'd consider "investment grade" - i.e. something I'm willing to spend money on in an attempt to make money. Of the 420 packs I've opened, the two longest streaks I've had of nothing but luck tokens were 108 and 77. My overall average has been 96.7% luck tokens, so I'm doing slightly better than expected.

QQ opened over 200(consecutively) and only got luck tokens, woo in the 0.2% bracket. Havent logged in in 2 weeks.

Knownase - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Well, December is on the horizon. Lets just hope the best all for anni packs to leave.

b:surrender

Even if the Anni packs leave we still have the Black Friday packs and what I heard they wont leave till January.

Just hope there won't be anymore packs after January. b:surrender

Meiko - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Now now lets not get hasty they will surely make some other kind of packs.... I can see it now

Introducing the "New" Hangover Packs!!!

They seem to ALWAYS find a way to bring it back.

b:sadb:surrenderb:cry

Shhhhhhh......... b:quiet

Don't bring up anymore Pack ideas or else it will happen.

May I begin this thread by first acknowledging the genius of selling online products. It is, by all accounts, a very beautiful thing, for the marketers. However, as my own personal opinion, this is threatening the integrity of not only the game itself, but the players. I bring to the fore the old concept of 'cost and worth'.

There is ofcourse, in this realm of MMORPG, only one sort of value. And that is, ones satisfaction in reaching any self-set goal. This satisfaction is ultimately the feeling of achievment after having worked hard to accomplish something. This is, I suppose, an old argument, which will have, old responses. I acknowledge that people live real lives, they interact with other physical beings, instead of avatars, and their avatar lives suffer, or fall behind, in the Perfect World. What I mean is, I know that people will pay money to catch up to those that have more time to play, or who have time to play and spend money. It is their right, and I see no problem with it.

I believe there are two types of people who play this game. Essentially 2 different people can reach the same level of play, lets take an extreme example. [removed] (a player who payed around 20,000$'s) and myself (around 300$'s). Theoretically if I played this game for a very, very long time I could reach [removed] level of play. But lets be honest, it would take years, and that's no exageration. But ask yourself a question, who would you respect more? And I'm not talking about the respect that makes you Holy Path in the opposite direction in a TW cause he's bombing down lane B. I mean inside that cage of bone underneath your skin, you recognize something that money can't buy, you recognize achievment. This is not to say that [removed] is unworthy of some sort of praise, but really, 20,000$'s? (and thats just a low estimate)

You know, anytime you see a lvl 90+ free-playing character, that they've been all across the Perfect World and back, they've been in every event, they've participated in every dungeon, done every quest, know's their role in a squad and everyone elses to the nines. In this Perfect World, that is something to admire, because, it's an achievment. It earns ones respect.

The essential problem is the divestment of achievment. Developers made drop rates, they made different monsters to do so, but then they sell you the items those drops create, or better ones. Ofcourse, you're going to buy them, ofcourse you're going to be tempted, but then, will you ever see those mobs or monsters? Did you even want to? Or did you want it to be easier? That much easier?

Its like playing a game and cheating, although that is a somewhat strong example, I do not equate buying gold with cheating, I am merely using it as an example. When one plays a game, and they cheat, they quickly find that the game is boring, or at least, I do.

Did you want to have to gather the material to manufacture that 90+ gear? Did you want to scratch up all that 35,000 rep to get lvl 6 rep gear?

For those who answer yes, well there's good news, the game will cater to your needs, you will always have an instance to run, you will always have mobs to grind. But if you want to TW, and win, bad news, that's reserved for paying customers.

For those who answer no, well there's good news, the game will cater to your needs, you will always have an anniversary pack to open, another endgame item to reap. And there's no bad news, except perhaps, the fact that there will be another player who spends more then you, there will be a player who plays longer than you, and there will always be something you have to buy. Not to mention that the Territory Map will be dominated.

This game, even suggested by its name, is an escape. An escape from the real world into a perfect one. As gamers we escape to relax, to stimulate, but most importantly to escape. There is very little difference between drugs and mmorpgs, or rather, mmorpg sold items meant to increase character performance. There will be a burst of joy, followed by a grinding slow. Money invested into PWI does one thing, it turns on a sort of nitrus oxide, it blasts your character ahead of other players, but then it slows down as you put that money into your character and realize that you've got a new goal to achieve.

Essentially, one feels like they must escape the escape. Because it is no longer a relaxing experience, it does not provide a sense of achievment, and it is revealed for what it truely is, a market, and not a game. A market that defines its own demands by controlling its own supply and setting its own prices.

Feel free to have at me! I've got my fire extinguisher!

omph wrote: »

May I begin this thread by first acknowledging the genius of selling online products. It is, by all accounts, a very beautiful thing, for the marketers. However, as my own personal opinion, this is threatening the integrity of not only the game itself, but the players. I bring to the fore the old concept of 'cost and worth'.

There is ofcourse, in this realm of MMORPG, only one sort of value. And that is, ones satisfaction in reaching any self-set goal. This satisfaction is ultimately the feeling of achievment after having worked hard to accomplish something. This is, I suppose, an old argument, which will have, old responses. I acknowledge that people live real lives, they interact with other physical beings, instead of avatars, and their avatar lives suffer, or fall behind, in the Perfect World. What I mean is, I know that people will pay money to catch up to those that have more time to play, or who have time to play and spend money. It is their right, and I see no problem with it.

I believe there are two types of people who play this game. Essentially 2 different people can reach the same level of play, lets take an extreme example. [removed] (a player who payed around 20,000$'s) and myself (around 300$'s). Theoretically if I played this game for a very, very long time I could reach [removed] level of play. But lets be honest, it would take years, and that's no exageration. But ask yourself a question, who would you respect more? And I'm not talking about the respect that makes you Holy Path in the opposite direction in a TW cause he's bombing down lane B. I mean inside that cage of bone underneath your skin, you recognize something that money can't buy, you recognize achievment. This is not to say that [removed] is unworthy of some sort of praise, but really, 20,000$'s? (and thats just a low estimate)

You know, anytime you see a lvl 90+ free-playing character, that they've been all across the Perfect World and back, they've been in every event, they've participated in every dungeon, done every quest, know's their role in a squad and everyone elses to the nines. In this Perfect World, that is something to admire, because, it's an achievment. It earns ones respect.

The essential problem is the divestment of achievment. Developers made drop rates, they made different monsters to do so, but then they sell you the items those drops create, or better ones. Ofcourse, you're going to buy them, ofcourse you're going to be tempted, but then, will you ever see those mobs or monsters? Did you even want to? Or did you want it to be easier? That much easier?

Its like playing a game and cheating, although that is a somewhat strong example, I do not equate buying gold with cheating, I am merely using it as an example. When one plays a game, and they cheat, they quickly find that the game is boring, or at least, I do.

Did you want to have to gather the material to manufacture that 90+ gear? Did you want to scratch up all that 35,000 rep to get lvl 6 rep gear?

For those who answer yes, well there's good news, the game will cater to your needs, you will always have an instance to run, you will always have mobs to grind. But if you want to TW, and win, bad news, that's reserved for paying customers.

For those who answer no, well there's good news, the game will cater to your needs, you will always have an anniversary pack to open, another endgame item to reap. And there's no bad news, except perhaps, the fact that there will be another player who spends more then you, there will be a player who plays longer than you, and there will always be something you have to buy. Not to mention that the Territory Map will be dominated.

This game, even suggested by its name, is an escape. An escape from the real world into a perfect one. As gamers we escape to relax, to stimulate, but most importantly to escape. There is very little difference between drugs and mmorpgs, or rather, mmorpg sold items meant to increase character performance. There will be a burst of joy, followed by a grinding slow. Money invested into PWI does one thing, it turns on a sort of nitrus oxide, it blasts your character ahead of other players, but then it slows down as you put that money into your character and realize that you've got a new goal to achieve.

Essentially, one feels like they must escape the escape. Because it is no longer a relaxing experience, it does not provide a sense of achievment, and it is revealed for what it truely is, a market, and not a game. A market that defines its own demands by controlling its own supply and setting its own prices.

Feel free to have at me! I've got my fire extinguisher!

/applause

IMO there's only one great big detail you missed, in the boldfaced section above. Put simply, the Ani and Black Friday packs are essentially gambling. Now, I'm not saying gambling itself is inherently bad (that may be a discussion for another day), but it's being marketed towards a MMORPG audience, which includes significant numbers of all of the following:
* Children and teens who do not yet have a solid grasp of money
* Young people who do have a grasp of money but feel like they need to throw it away anyway in order to gamble for virtual "power" (yet not, as omph so eloquently put it, actual deserved respect)
* Adults who simply handle their money poorly

With the exception of the third category (which, you could argue, is the target market for traditional lottery and gambling methods), these are not audiences normally targeted by gambling operations. In fact, the first one shouldn't be targeted at all due to ethical considerations (i.e. there's a reason you have to be 18 to buy a lotto ticket).

Is this legal? Probably. Is it ethical? The jury is out, methinks. But am I complaining so much about this? Nah. I'd just like to point out the rather disturbing trend, and as one poster in another thread jokingly mentioned, we'd better not see any damned "Christmas Packs" or any other such BS in place of actual events. >_<



...I've heard the packs will be removed this week. But then, I've reason to believe that several big changes will happen this week... I guess we'll see.

Are you watching, PWE execs? I'm still ranting about you, every week. -_- Get rid of the gambling packs already. You've made enough money to ride on for awhile, haven't you? Are they worth a mass exodous after Rising Tide comes out?

EDIT: Since when did BBcode lists stop working on this board? >_> *replaced with asterisks*

soon it will be removed yeab:laughb:chuckleb:pleased

Yuna_Sama - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Yay~! No more anni packs... b:dirty *brings in the cake & soda*
Let's just hope they stay away this time and that the black friday packs will leave is announced too... Then we'll be safe untill christmass and ppl can buy their stuff for normal prices again... b:surrender So goodbye Anni Packs! b:bye

I doubt that gold price will be reduced , cashshoppers are too greedy
but i like the palace packs ... and they are only till 02.12 b:cry
I hope they bring them back also till 01.01

I think what matters to the corporate entity behind this MMORPG is the amount of profit they managed to reap in (note: Reap)

What the (non-paying) players wants are simply ignored. As long as their clients (paying customers) are willing to pay 100-200 USD a month or less for a chance to get a hamster pet (in-game pet), the packs will still roll out.

The problem I see is that, there are those who are willing to pay to gamble for something they want, or can be resold for in-game coins. Though their numbers may not be the majority of the player base, but to the company, it's their spending power that matters.

The more these people spends, the higher the profits. Packs kept rolling out to entice players (who seldom spend much) just to get the 'magica hamsta' pet, to reap in more profit.

The packs are here to stay as long as the numbers shows that they are popular.

This is my objective point of view on this matter. No one is right and no one is wrong. Just different agendas.