Midsummer Crazy Collection

saxroll wrote: »

eirghan wrote: »

is there anyone available willing to run a very quick economics seminar on the forums? I see a lot of people here who don't see the connection between the value of 9m when 9b coins are in rotation and 9m when 900b coins are in rotation.

Well in theory, if we were to have item X, say pan gu or whatever one desires. If ecnomy had 9b coins in circulation, reality is prolly closer to that 900b even on smaller server like archo. I`ll use 1000b, which is 1 trillion(?) for this example. Lets say server has 2k players who will participate on this event.

This is where the real guesswork starts, I suspect at most 2% of players have those 100+ toons to close/enough. Some may have way more, I assume they get 1b each(Group A). People with ~50 eligible toons are prolly ~5% of players, they will average to 500m(Group B ). 10% for ~20 toons, which averages to 200m(Group C ). Bout 25% for ~10 toons averaging to 100m(Group D ). Rest have couple of toons and average to 30m(Group E ), they are 58% of active players.

There are 0,02 * 2000 = 40 people in group A. 0,05 * 2000 = 100 people in group B. 0,1 * 2000 = 200 people in group C. 0,25 * 2000 = 500 people in group D. 0,58 * 2000 = 1160 people in group E.

40 * 1 + 100 * 0,5 + 200 * 0,2 + 500 * 0,1 + 1160 * 0,03 = 175,6. Thats right, 175,6 billion coins put into economy. Chances are true number might be even multiple times that but thats not so important right now.

175,6/1000 * 100% = 17,56%.

So if we assume only thing, which changes is, the amount of coins, everything but npc regulated prices, should increase by 17,6%. 320m * 1,176 = 376m. The fault in this premise is how this coin isnt distributed evenly. As a result, there will be multiple competing "funds" fighting for certain items driving price of those even further ahead of this estimation. Pan gu is likely one, SoT/Domi/Emperor will definitely be one. Another thing is, total amount of coin into economy doesnt always reflect shifts in value too well when more are put into it.

The one thing, which would take a massive spike in price would be gold. This is because there would be oh so much coin, most of it in hands of XX amount of people, who likely want something, which comes from boutique/gold itself. As a result demand for gold would increase massively. Archo was ~3,2m buying pre crazy collection, now buying number is 3,7m. So if server wasnt at AH cap for gold it would be with this 9m reward. 17,6% increase on 3,2m comes as 3,76m. But because there is so much more demand than supply for gold, even after these sales/promos end, gold could still very likely stay at AH cap till a lot of it is out of circulation.

In general this will negatively affect largely one group, the ones who have their wealth in coins. This group is usually the poor people, while they dont have much coin they dont really have anything, which would increase in price, either. Funny enough, best off are merchants, who usually have majority of their coin in inventory and CSers who now get more for their buck. Farmers should benefit too as people now have coins to spend on their mats/items, same goes for merchants and their inventory. All in all, injection of coin will do good things to circulation of coin and thus benefit certain players in short term but if you are some poor player with G16 or lower, who isnt really farmer/merchant or doesnt have legions of toons to abuse this? Asking for this 9m giveaway is basically asking PWE to make things so much harder for you.

Nice break down. One thing that wasn't mentioned was that with hyperinflation often prices of goods rise much faster and much higher than the rate of inflation. Look up hyperinflation in wikipedia and it will give a few sources for that theory. So while what you say is true if the price of goods increase match the inflation, more likely you would see prices increase much much more than the percentage you estimate. Thanks for writing it out

mintsummer wrote: »

thedoc1212 wrote: »

So the items aren't stacking like they should as its posted. You get tier 2 and up you get all the tiers below it again. we are on tier 3 and should be at 3 tier 1 and 2 tier 2 but its not happening, whats up with that?

"Login rewards can only be redeemed once per character. A character can only earn 1x T1, 1x T2, 1x T3 etc."
Posted on the blog the first day.

mintsummer wrote: »

For everyone who did not get their spend promo reward, clear up your mail box! clear up your mail box! clear up your mail box! (Triple times on important thing.)
We checked tickets sent in, your mail box is full -- that is why you did not get the reward.

mintsummer wrote: »

For everyone who did not get their spend promo reward, clear up your mail box! clear up your mail box! clear up your mail box! (Triple times on important thing.)
We checked tickets sent in, your mail box is full -- that is why you did not get the reward.

foley3k wrote: »

It took a week for an PWE employee to realize that they had screwed up yet another login event?

Honestly, I'm completely lost at what I received and what is missing (if something is missing). I made sure I got all spend rewards I deserved, but log in event... I get bunch of tokens and card packs in random times which I didn't count on and I don't know what tier exactly they belong to