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Why is the ZAX rising again?

mconosrepmconosrep Member Posts: 0 Arc User
edited October 2014 in General Discussion (PC)
I am sure that many people have also noticed that after the backlog fell from around 13.5 million ZEN to 0, it has started rising again.

This seems counter-intuitive to me given that the after the AD exploit was fixed the AH 10% tax and the AD sink from the Double RP event has taken a lot of AD out of the system. And in fact the backlog DID disappear totally, and as far as I can see this process should have continued, or at least the ZAX remained at somewhere around 500. I certainly can't even see any reason for the backlog to to rise after falling to zero as the current ZEN sales are okay but nothing amazing.

Any ideas?
Post edited by mconosrep on
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    untamedengineer#6733 untamedengineer Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 100 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    People starting to convert AD to Zen in preparation for the next module?
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    mconosrepmconosrep Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    dave49424 wrote: »
    People starting to convert AD to Zen in preparation for the next module?

    Could be - when is the new module supposed to come out?
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    marc8219marc8219 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    500 ad per zen still isn't enough for a lot of us to want to buy zen for AD. If the exchange cap were lifted or done away with I might be interested in buying zen for AD.
    Tala -KDF Tac- House of Beautiful Orions
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    lewstelamon01lewstelamon01 Member Posts: 7,415 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    marc8219 wrote: »
    500 ad per zen still isn't enough for a lot of us to want to buy zen for AD. If the exchange cap were lifted or done away with I might be interested in buying zen for AD.

    That cap is there for the purpose of preventing ZEN prices from running insane. If people realize that others would pay more AD per ZEN, then the ZAX would quickly peg the top end of that limit. Thus, to prevent ZEN prices from getting ridiculous, the cap was instituted.

    Those who think otherwise may want to take a look at the BOI ZEN exchange (presuming that you play), where prices per 100 ZEN are at the limit of 10 million coin and have been for quite some time.
    ROLL TIDE ROLL

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    rollingonitrollingonit Member Posts: 1,322 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    Lenny Bruce is not afraid.
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    showmelightsshowmelights Member Posts: 39 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    This weekend we're getting 2x XP -> people will try to get new alts to level 60 -> people will need more character slots -> more people are posting zen requests in the ZAX. At least that's my bet.
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    ghoulz66ghoulz66 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,748 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    This weekend we're getting 2x XP -> people will try to get new alts to level 60 -> people will need more character slots -> more people are posting zen requests in the ZAX. At least that's my bet.

    That's a lot of people wanting to grind more toons and lose their minds then.
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    mconosrepmconosrep Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    Thanks for the replies - there was certainly some explanations I hadn't considered.
    dave49424 wrote: »
    People starting to convert AD to Zen in preparation for the next module?

    Does anyone know (roughly) when Mod 5 is due?

    Those who think otherwise may want to take a look at the BOI ZEN exchange (presuming that you play), where prices per 100 ZEN are at the limit of 10 million coin and have been for quite some time.

    Sorry, what is BOI?
    This weekend we're getting 2x XP -> people will try to get new alts to level 60 -> people will need more character slots -> more people are posting zen requests in the ZAX. At least that's my bet.

    Yes, that might be a factor I hadn't thought of. I imagine people who want to get a new toon to 60 would want to take advantage of doing this in half the normal time, and may not have a spare character slot.
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    daggon87daggon87 Member Posts: 288 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    My theory : The 2 or 3 last million Zen backlog dropped far too fast. Most of it is getting its way back in the market. It's some kind of rebound I suppose. Some people hopped they could get Zen at less than 500, noticed it would not be so yet and are then finally buying at 500.
    Olaf, freelance guardian fighter.
    Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
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    silverkeltsilverkelt Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,235 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    That cap is there for the purpose of preventing ZEN prices from running insane. If people realize that others would pay more AD per ZEN, then the ZAX would quickly peg the top end of that limit. Thus, to prevent ZEN prices from getting ridiculous, the cap was instituted.

    Those who think otherwise may want to take a look at the BOI ZEN exchange (presuming that you play), where prices per 100 ZEN are at the limit of 10 million coin and have been for quite some time.

    Its too low though.. 500 per zen isnt high enough for those who want to get some AD back. If they floated it, it would eventually get to a more stable point, and return peoples actual REAL life money for game money at a more equal rate.

    Right now, whats the point, putting twenty bucks in , barely gets you anything at all in value back.

    The backlog will always grow at this point in the game.

    AD just isnt worth the rate at the moment.
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    rhoriangelusrhoriangelus Member Posts: 703 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    My guess is that it's probably people trying to open as many Defender Packs from the event as possible before they're gone (possibly forever). I have no idea if this will be a yearly event, since the Valindra event was one-time, there's a good chance this one will never come back. Medals of Heroism sold for 50 zen apiece.

    Now that the event is over, I bet the ZAX will go back down. maybe not as fast as it did before, but pretty fast.
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    thrymskvidathrymskvida Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 19 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    Both the siege and the hammer of gond event are predictably raising the Zen/AD prices. It's only natural. As soon as these events are done, I reckon we'll see the Zen backlog disappear at a more or less steady rate.
    Shadow of purple wings: Help the Harpers investigate a wizard suspected to be part of the Cult of the Dragon. - NW-DEYV5SVQ9
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    dreamhuntressxdreamhuntressx Member Posts: 453 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    mconosrep wrote: »
    Sorry, what is BOI?

    Im guessing its the Battle of the Immortals.
    Leanan Sidhe (not "The Dresde Files" fairy!) - NW Legit Channel Moderator
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    mareatlanticummareatlanticum Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 202 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    silverkelt wrote: »
    Its too low though.. 500 per zen isnt high enough for those who want to get some AD back. If they floated it, it would eventually get to a more stable point, and return peoples actual REAL life money for game money at a more equal rate.

    Right now, whats the point, putting twenty bucks in , barely gets you anything at all in value back.

    The backlog will always grow at this point in the game.

    AD just isnt worth the rate at the moment.

    Yes, assuming there would be no AD exploits for some few to gather loads of AD. I would suspect there is another duplicate bug around when there lately popped 10x 250k lesser Vorpals on the market, when the lowest price was over 330k at the moment...
    Give us 4 or more power/item bar profiles so we can change powers and items with one click that are suited for the situation.
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    mareatlanticummareatlanticum Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 202 Bounty Hunter
    edited September 2014
    My guess is that it's probably people trying to open as many Defender Packs from the event as possible before they're gone (possibly forever). I have no idea if this will be a yearly event, since the Valindra event was one-time, there's a good chance this one will never come back. Medals of Heroism sold for 50 zen apiece.

    Now that the event is over, I bet the ZAX will go back down. maybe not as fast as it did before, but pretty fast.

    Valindra event one timer? How can it be when she is the iconic foe of Neverwinter in this game?

    At the very least they should remove the collection items in this case from the event from newer characters if they are (near) impossible to get anymore.
    Give us 4 or more power/item bar profiles so we can change powers and items with one click that are suited for the situation.
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    beckylunaticbeckylunatic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 14,231 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    Valindra event one timer? How can it be when she is the iconic foe of Neverwinter in this game?

    Because you only get to go from beta to live once. But the unique reward from that event (skeletal dog) has been made available more times since then, so it's not like it was impossible to get. Only the title is totally unavailable.

    The siege rewards, I have a feeling will be reused, maybe even soon. The siege mechanic is something that could be applied to any number of enemies, while the rewards were themed to the defense of Neverwinter, nice and generic.
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    subnoctesubnocte Member Posts: 341 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    Over 1m backlog and rising. Are there any easy sinks for AD that could be implemented?
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    charononuscharononus Member Posts: 5,715 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    silverkelt wrote: »
    Its too low though.. 500 per zen isnt high enough for those who want to get some AD back. If they floated it, it would eventually get to a more stable point, and return peoples actual REAL life money for game money at a more equal rate.

    Right now, whats the point, putting twenty bucks in , barely gets you anything at all in value back.

    The backlog will always grow at this point in the game.

    AD just isnt worth the rate at the moment.

    Yeah because a million ad to one zen wouldn't lock people out of the game........ /sarcasm
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    silverkeltsilverkelt Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,235 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    charononus wrote: »
    Yeah because a million ad to one zen wouldn't lock people out of the game........ /sarcasm

    Dont go overboard.. it would probably be like 1-2kish range in the end.

    It also helps new players, this is what I dont understand at all by some of the arguments against it, the only benefit to the cap right now are those wishing to play 100% for free, those who may be willing to spend a little reasonable money on the other hand seems to be wacked in the face by this cap.

    Tell me exactly what 20 dollars US in zen to AD gets a player? a million AD ? whats a million ad going to buy you in this game? Nothing! Like literally nothing of any value in the end.

    You would have to convert at minimum 100 dollars us just to buy something of value, thats pretty pathetic honestly and one of the many reasons why I dont drop a random 20 from time to time on the zen market, because its just not worth it.

    Going through and making everything in the zen market BoA , just makes me never wanting to even do the little transactions I do now from time to time.

    IMO, a game company should on average get around 2-300 from a single player a year, not a dime more, that's what Im willing to spend, Im not spending 2000-3000 on a effing game, its a game in the end, its my replacement for cable, since I refuse to pay that price.

    You all think zen is free or something.. AD has been exploited from the start, Zen HAD to be purchased by someone , somewhere to float around for you. The kicker is there is no AH cap on AD.. that would BE more beneficial for new players then a zen cap in the end..

    Lets start by saying highest posting for any one item is 1 million AD.. would you like that?
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    charononuscharononus Member Posts: 5,715 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    silverkelt wrote: »
    Dont go overboard.. it would probably be like 1-2kish range in the end.

    It also helps new players, this is what I dont understand at all by some of the arguments against it, the only benefit to the cap right now are those wishing to play 100% for free, those who may be willing to spend a little reasonable money on the other hand seems to be wacked in the face by this cap.

    Tell me exactly what 20 dollars US in zen to AD gets a player? a million AD ? whats a million ad going to buy you in this game? Nothing! Like literally nothing of any value in the end.

    You would have to convert at minimum 100 dollars us just to buy something of value, thats pretty pathetic honestly and one of the many reasons why I dont drop a random 20 from time to time on the zen market, because its just not worth it.

    Going through and making everything in the zen market BoA , just makes me never wanting to even do the little transactions I do now from time to time.

    IMO, a game company should on average get around 2-300 from a single player a year, not a dime more, that's what Im willing to spend, Im not spending 2000-3000 on a effing game, its a game in the end, its my replacement for cable, since I refuse to pay that price.

    You all think zen is free or something.. AD has been exploited from the start, Zen HAD to be purchased by someone , somewhere to float around for you. The kicker is there is no AH cap on AD.. that would BE more beneficial for new players then a zen cap in the end..

    Lets start by saying highest posting for any one item is 1 million AD.. would you like that?
    Problem is that this is not a real economy. It's a gaming economy, and you will drive off new players when they see how much ad they can earn vs how much zen costs. They will be scared by that and likely drop the game before even hitting cap. I've seen it before with it just being at 500. It would be much worse if they uncapped it.
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    subnoctesubnocte Member Posts: 341 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    I think it'd be a very bad idea to remove the cap, when a real money based currency is linked to an infinite in game currency.

    Perhaps the AH could have scaling fee percentages above a certain amount? Things that will only hit players with tons of AD rather than new players grinding to get enough to get by with.
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    zebularzebular Member, Neverwinter Moderator, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 15,270 Community Moderator
    edited September 2014
    Removing the Cap would just put a tighter grasp in the hands those who try to monopolize the economy. Prices would just continue to soar and soar until we're at the new cap and then this whole argument would start again. Which reminds me of the saying used in one of my favorite remakes, "It's all happened before and will happen again." With that said, the cap is fine where it is at. What we need are Cheaper AD Sinks and many, Many More of them! Which reminds me of another tried and true saying, "Less is more."
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    marc8219marc8219 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    Removing the cap will put business back in the hands of PWE and take it away from the spammers. It will probably go to around 1000 AD per zen which is the real market rate but there will be much more zen available. If 1000 per zen is too high and there are worries it will scare new players then more should be done to get AD inflation under control through sinks, not through artifical price controls that prevent the market from setting the true value of AD to zen which is really 1000 not 500.
    Tala -KDF Tac- House of Beautiful Orions
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    lewstelamon01lewstelamon01 Member Posts: 7,415 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    marc8219 wrote: »
    Removing the cap will put business back in the hands of PWE and take it away from the spammers. It will probably go to around 1000 AD per zen which is the real market rate but there will be much more zen available. If 1000 per zen is too high and there are worries it will scare new players then more should be done to get AD inflation under control through sinks, not through artifical price controls that prevent the market from setting the true value of AD to zen which is really 1000 not 500.

    Those "artificial price controls" keep the price of ZEN from spiraling to ridiculous heights. It's a proven fact that if you raise the limit, the limit eventually becomes the new norm and then people complain that the limit should be raised again. When the sky is the limit, people will charge the sky. Cryptic just lowered the prices of a lot of items on the WB too, and some recent promotions have proven effective, so yea, the sinks are already in place.

    Raising the limit is just asking for the rich to get richer at the expense of the F2P crowd.
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    ambisinisterrambisinisterr Member, Neverwinter Moderator Posts: 10,462 Community Moderator
    edited September 2014
    marc8219 wrote: »
    Removing the cap will put business back in the hands of PWE and take it away from the spammers.

    Completely incorrect. :)
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    midnightfang93midnightfang93 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    marc8219 wrote: »
    Removing the cap will put business back in the hands of PWE and take it away from the spammers.

    If this held true, why do spammers still exist in the majority of MMOs?
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    masizin777masizin777 Member Posts: 181 Arc User
    edited September 2014
    mconosrep wrote: »
    I am sure that many people have also noticed that after the backlog fell from around 13.5 million ZEN to 0, it has started rising again.

    This seems counter-intuitive to me given that the after the AD exploit was fixed the AH 10% tax and the AD sink from the Double RP event has taken a lot of AD out of the system. And in fact the backlog DID disappear totally, and as far as I can see this process should have continued, or at least the ZAX remained at somewhere around 500. I certainly can't even see any reason for the backlog to to rise after falling to zero as the current ZEN sales are okay but nothing amazing.

    Any ideas?

    They can fix the AD exploit but you can't fix exploiting the market. (or can they)
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    ambisinisterrambisinisterr Member, Neverwinter Moderator Posts: 10,462 Community Moderator
    edited September 2014
    This really isn't a mystery...

    The backlog dissipated due to increased demand for AD due to price reductions in AD shops, the double refinement weekend causing an increased desire for AD and events like the Sgt Knox Promoition. Once the market dropped near the 500 AD mark many people, such as myself, threw all of their Zen on to the exchange to get top dollar thus causing a venerable crash in Zen Value.

    Once it dropped below 500 AD:Zen the opposite became true. People who may not have wanted to wait weeks for exchanges to occur decided to put requests on the market let alone the people, like me, who now had a decent chunk of AD and expected a rubberband to occur.

    Then combine the nnew $25 dollar unlock for dragonborn, new sales and a loss of any other event causing AD to retain its value and yes the backlog will bounce back.

    Seriously, you exploit fear mongers are worse than a dang sewing circle. The exploit claims are stupid. Sorry I'm pulling that card but seriously stupid.

    The demand for AD was the cause. Always has been the cause. And by demand for AD I mean the lack of it. Unless there are working sinks (don't even dare try to call the AH a sink) AD will sit above the 500 AD:Zen value. The backlog is gone. That's step one in the battle. The prices of some sinks have been reduced. Some are perfect where they are. Some need further reductions. Some were never touched and should have been reduced...

    The market is better than what it was the first time the AD breached the 500 mark due to some sinks becoming a little more attractive but it's still not perfect. Until AD becomes more valuable to spend in sinks full time we'll continue to see this trend.
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    ambisinisterrambisinisterr Member, Neverwinter Moderator Posts: 10,462 Community Moderator
    edited September 2014
    And just to put this out there before somebody pulls the stupid AH being an AD sink card...

    Yes it takes 10%. Woohoo! That's like saying a hundred pounds of feathers isn't heavy because feathers are light...

    When things are sold on the AH for AD what do you think the most likely place for the AD to end up? If you said on the Zen Exchange you would be correct. Buying items on the AH doesn't remove that AD from the system. It, at the very best, cycles it minus 10% if that person bought the AD from the ZAX to begin with. Otherwise it adds more AD into the ZAX as that AD which the player farmed was not previously in the system.

    So let's just take the best case scenario. A person spends 50 dollars to get 2.5M AD to buy an item on the AH.
    10% of that goes into the void. That is 250K AD being removed from the system. However I make 50K AD a day minimum. Upwards of 100K AD (refined)

    So that huge purchase which it is very unlikely for people to take part in will only take the AD out of the system for 5-10 people maybe per day? It just doesn't remove enough from the system to keep prices stable. More comes in than leaves. And as long as more AD comes into the system than leave the price of AD will increase over time.
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