40% = 8 tries???

zebular · May 2014

I've also failed several times on a 90%. I don't think anything is wrong but I do like the idea posted above that our rolls should have an output to system chat.

damnataanimus · May 2014

Yes these posters are right.

It's 40% each time, and the game does not remember how many tries you've done.

Using the 90% relic upgrade as an example, I've had to do that 8 times before to get the upgrade.

I have however known people to get a 1% chance upgrade before, using a green ward.

ladymythos · May 2014

Here's a fun thought about odds and probability: Take a lottery-system with 32 balls, each marked from 1 to 32 (so ball nr one is marked 1, ball nr two is marked with 2 etc). Now pick five of them completely at random.

If we talk odds, the chance of getting five balls in order is the same as getting five balls in random order. So the chance of getting ball nr 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 is the same as getting ball nr 3, 23, 5, 18 and 10. After all, the balls don't know which one's been picked already, so the chance of a ball to appear will always be 1:32.

If we talk probability, the chance of getting five balls in the correct order is microscopic. There are millions of combinations, so getting five balls in the correct order is one to a few million or more. Billions, even.

And that is why a 90% can fail repeatedly, and why a 10% chance can succeed at first try. Your rolls doesn't know what the previous roll was, so a 90% will always have 10% chance of failing. It doesn't matter if you roll one or a hundred times.

jintortle · May 2014

calvin1tag wrote: »

Ya until you hit the 20-30 tries this isn't even a gripe

I spent about 400 US on green wards since I started playing this game so I know all about % and RNG making people a little insane!

You do know that you could have sold some of those enchantments and bout the Wards for AD.

Sorry, I am just wondering how you spent that much real money on them and feel the worth.

damnataanimus · May 2014

jintortle wrote: »

You do know that you could have sold some of those enchantments and bout the Wards for AD.

Sorry, I am just wondering how you spent that much real money on them and feel the worth.

You know they are the same price in AD as they are in zen usually (if you were to convert the ah cost of 10 to ad)? And maybe he didnt know - no need to be condescending.

grogthemagnif · May 2014

Well spoken. The probability is for EACH TIME.

lewstelamon01 wrote: »

Probability does not mean that you are guaranteed a certain outcome. It simply means the chance of a particular outcome among a random group.

Flip a coin twenty times. It's doubtful that you will get exactly ten heads and ten tails on every twenty flips, every single time. It's likely even that you'll get twenty heads and no tails.

Or, rolling a d20 with 5% probability of getting any given number. Sure you can roll that d20 exactly 20 times and never once get that number. Or, you can get it four times.

ashnvf · May 2014

grogthemagnif wrote: »

Well spoken. The probability is for EACH TIME.

It doesn't matter. Even though each one has a 10% chance to fail, the likelihood of having 4 failures in a row, EVERY time is so small that it shouldn't occur.

This may be a video game, but there is real $ involved in some of this "gambling". There is a reason Casino's get monitored to make sure the machines pay out at the posted odds.

At this point all we have to go on is "faith" that the odds are as posted. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. Without proper oversight there is just no way to prove it one way or the other.

pantheist84 · May 2014

Unfortunately the attempts don't stack.

djarkaan · May 2014

Let's try again to put it in easier terms for everybody related to the actual task at hand.

Rolling a D100 where 61 to 100 is sucess and 1 to 60 is failure is a 40% chance of sucess.

First Try: 2
Second Try:55
Third Try: 47
Fourth Try: 34
Fifth Try: 15
Sixth Try: 55 again ****
Seventh Try: 7
Eight Try: 72 Success Yay

Really can't put it any clearer then this if you didn't understand the coin flip example all ready.

pprandom · May 2014

Yeah, but the odds are still manipulated. They are not working as they say they do. For example, gathering stuff has a 75% chance, but when it fails you are bound to fail at least 7 times more, why? because the outcome is calculated before the action not when you do the action. So each situation has already been hexed from the start. And even if the odds aren t the same as the media, hell it should be close. The thing is this "random" stuff is fixed to fail or succeed from the get go, it s not like rolling a dice.
All this is a dishonest way to take resources from you, the odds shown aren t the real ones they are much lower, wich is what enrages the most, the dishonest theft mechanic.

zebular · May 2014

pprandom wrote: »

Yeah, but the odds are still manipulated. They are not working as they say they do. For example, gathering stuff has a 75% chance, but when it fails you are bound to fail at least 7 times more, why? because the outcome is calculated before the action not when you do the action. So each situation has already been hexed from the start. And even if the odds aren t the same as the media, hell it should be close. The thing is this "random" stuff is fixed to fail or succeed from the get go, it s not like rolling a dice.
All this is a dishonest way to take resources from you, the odds shown aren t the real ones they are much lower, wich is what enrages the most, the dishonest theft mechanic.

Pray-tell exactly how you know this... please don't spread assumptions as truth.

bluedarky · May 2014

pprandom wrote: »

Yeah, but the odds are still manipulated. They are not working as they say they do. For example, gathering stuff has a 75% chance, but when it fails you are bound to fail at least 7 times more, why? because the outcome is calculated before the action not when you do the action. So each situation has already been hexed from the start. And even if the odds aren t the same as the media, hell it should be close. The thing is this "random" stuff is fixed to fail or succeed from the get go, it s not like rolling a dice.
All this is a dishonest way to take resources from you, the odds shown aren t the real ones they are much lower, wich is what enrages the most, the dishonest theft mechanic.

Do you have proof of this you can post here?

There's only 2 ways you can know this after all,

You worked for Cryptic on the game engine at some point, congratulations on preventing yourself getting a job in the gaming field again by giving out proprietary secrets publicly.
You managed to hack the servers, dump the code to your machine and found the call routines for the probability output and figure out how it worked. Congradulations on getting your account banned.

Anything else is pure speculation.

lewstelamon01 · May 2014

zebular wrote: »

Pray-tell exactly how you know this... please don't spread assumptions as truth.

I second this notion.

greygus · May 2014

thats not bad now what is messed up i was upgrading my water artifact from green to blue 90% chance and have failed 12 times...... now tell me that is epic fail....

vscoutv · May 2014

I know I fail to open nodes way more than I succeed. In fact, for me at least, it is rare that I open a node the first try. I've just come to accept it as the way it is. Probability aside, statistically speaking, this shouldn't be the case. (if someone else is opening over 75% of their nodes on the first try, you're welcome because I must be getting all you're failures to make up the statistical difference.

As for upgrading, statistically, I'm probably in range. I've failed 30 times in a row with a 60% chance, but in aggregate my successes of several in a row here and there probably made up the difference.

greygus · May 2014

oh, i also miss the old way of upgrading... 4 of w/e enchant to upgrade to the next stage but now... jeez have to dump alot of AD into marks n stuff, so annoying. Anything to get us to pay right?

labbb · May 2014

The RNG is most likely generated from the time stamp . So if you fail just wait a few minutes to reroll . Heck I missed four 90% yesterday because I was to lazy to just wait .

pprandom · May 2014

Obviously i don t have the game coding, so i measured it by estatistics and i took notes of things that are at random.
Around one of every 2 kits fail, and when they do 80% of the time they fail again, usually more than 3 times. Acane burst is supposed to work 1 of every 5 times, it only works around 1 of 10 times. What works for the kits is also true for refinement, if it failed chances are it will fail again.
I reference things that i ve experienced more than a hundred times, at some point the odds shown and the media should became similar values, or at least they should get closer to each other, they do not.

vyrokk · May 2014

I refine 2 random rank 6s to a rank 8 daily. Ive done this for months. I have NEVER succeeded on first attempt for rank 7s or 8. I average 3 tries per refine regardless of what the % says. Probability tied into said percentage is fail. Probability of failing is more likely! Yes I have blown stacks of pres wards, on 1 refine occasionally aswell.

bluedarky · May 2014

pprandom wrote: »

Obviously i don t have the game coding, so i measured it by estatistics and i took notes of things that are at random.
Around one of every 2 kits fail, and when they do 80% of the time they fail again, usually more than 3 times. Acane burst is supposed to work 1 of every 5 times, it only works around 1 of 10 times. What works for the kits is also true for refinement, if it failed chances are it will fail again.
I reference things that i ve experienced more than a hundred times, at some point the odds shown and the media should became similar values, or at least they should get closer to each other, they do not.

None of this has anything to do with this -

pprandom wrote: »

because the outcome is calculated before the action not when you do the action. So each situation has already been hexed from the start. And even if the odds aren t the same as the media, hell it should be close. The thing is this "random" stuff is fixed to fail or succeed from the get go, it s not like rolling a dice.
All this is a dishonest way to take resources from you, the odds shown aren t the real ones they are much lower, wich is what enrages the most, the dishonest theft mechanic.

In the first post you're saying you worked it out through observation, you observed that the RNG has bad ruts that should be corrected.

The second post states that the entire thing is fixed before you even open the window to do the task. Neither has anything to do directly with the other.

In fact, if the RNG is based off the timestamp (entirely likely as I've detailed in several other posts on the subject) then it can still get into ruts if it rolls independently each time you make the attempt.

agruces · May 2014

You don't notice strings of successes against the odds as you generally stop when you succeed. I refined 4 r7's and only blew 3 preservation wards last week, go me

yarknarf · May 2014

vyrokk wrote: »

I refine 2 random rank 6s to a rank 8 daily. Ive done this for months. I have NEVER succeeded on first attempt for rank 7s or 8. I average 3 tries per refine regardless of what the % says. Probability tied into said percentage is fail. Probability of failing is more likely! Yes I have blown stacks of pres wards, on 1 refine occasionally aswell.

But people are going to just counter your observations with the obvious fact that your results are possible given the infinity of the universe.
And they are correct.
You can't say the counter argument is wrong.
However me and you, having upgraded many, many things recognize what others seem to be missing.
That this isn't a random number we are discussing.
It's computer code that simulates randomness.

It's also entirely possible that the code is working improperly.

My rate of fail, and others, is highly suspect to me.
It deserves a look-see IMO.
A year ago when i failed I just thought "well bad for me"
A year later when I get consistent, predictable results from upgrade that do not conform to the advertized % time and time again, I have to scratch my head.

And yes... I do allow that my result are entirely possible simply improbable.

So its entirely possible the system is working fine, its just highly unlikely IMO.

agruces wrote: »

You don't notice strings of successes against the odds as you generally stop when you succeed. I refined 4 r7's and only blew 3 preservation wards last week, go me

^^Very valid point^^^
You do stop after success.

But the odds are you will have a few first try successes in a row to match the string of fails in a row if you keep rolling enough times.
I keep rolling.
And the rolls stay the same, it seems.
2-5 perervation wards are needed to achieve a 50% success.

walk2k · May 2014

Thanks for the responses. I understand how it works, that it's 40% every time, and doesn't "remember" the last roll. The exact formula is a little complex but the gist is that there's somewhere around a 1% chance of 7 failures in a row, at 40% chance of success each time. Obviously 1% isn't 0% but I think you'd agree it's very very very (very x96 more times) UNlikely to happen. FWIW right after I posted this I upgraded another and had 5 failures in a row.

If you know anything about how computer RNG code works you know it grabs a "seed" from somewhere (usually some form of timestamp) and performs an operation on that. The flaw in this method is that if you start with the same seed you will end up with the same "random" number at the end (nothing in a computer can ever be truly random, it's a solid-state device, on or off..). I just don't think the seed is being reset after each roll. This is why we see so many failures in a row. (We might see the same kind of successes in a row, except that after a success we stop...)

Either that or the % we are shown are not accurate - not anywhere NEAR accurate..

fluppery · May 2014

FIX the RNG

I often get success on my 1st try with 30% probability. So there goes your argument about something being broken.

yarknarf · May 2014

fluppery wrote: »

I often get success on my 1st try with 30% probability. So there goes your argument about something being broken.

Ah Ok.

Here we finally have a person (6 pages later) who observes disproportional success.
That gives me hope.

However (obviously) your results don't discount anything anymore than my results prove anything.

I suspect someone will provide some hard data with a large enough sample to provide some real evidence soon enough
I suspect the number will be shown to be off.

I but can't and don't claim to know for sure.

Gratz on your success. I wish it were me. :-)

djarkaan · May 2014

yarknarf wrote: »

Ah Ok.

Here we finally have a person (6 pages later) who observes disproportional success.
That gives me hope.

However (obviously) your results don't discount anything anymore than my results prove anything.

I suspect someone will provide some hard data with a large enough sample to provide some real evidence soon enough
I suspect the number will be shown to be off.

I but can't and don't claim to know for sure.

Gratz on your success. I wish it were me. :-)

When ppl succeed on the first try and then succeed 2, 3 times after that they don't come to the forum and brag about it, unlike ppl who don't succeed come to whine.

fluppery · May 2014

yarknarf wrote: »

Ah Ok.

Here we finally have a person (6 pages later) who observes disproportional success.
That gives me hope.

However (obviously) your results don't discount anything anymore than my results prove anything.

I suspect someone will provide some hard data with a large enough sample to provide some real evidence soon enough
I suspect the number will be shown to be off.

I but can't and don't claim to know for sure.

Gratz on your success. I wish it were me. :-)

Thank you! I also hope you enjoy good chances. Unless you are the opposite faction! Then, of course I wish you all the curses possible

Usually it takes a lot more tries. But, I was on a lucky streak!!

I felt like a GM was watching and giving me a special treatment. Call me Paranoid!

walk2k · May 2014

Ah yes whining about whining, my favorite forum topic.

Actually if you succeed the first time with 30% probability, yes you got lucky. If you fail the first time but succeed on the 2nd try, you are also slightly on the lucky side. If it takes you 3 tries then that's about average (30% being about 1/3). If it takes you 7 or 8 tries though, AND this is more than a fluke - ie it happens far FAR more often than it should, then something is clearly wrong.

If it had taken me 3 or 4 or even 5 tries (with 40% probability), I'd not be here complaining. It took me 8 f'n tries. EIGHT. And again this is not a fluke, one time in a hundred type thing, but happens all the time..

fluppery · May 2014

A little bit off topic.. but how about those Skill Node Kits? Aren't they 70% probability? I've used 7 or 8 skill kits on a node so many times.

equ4lizer · May 2014

This is how Tymora works, better start praying to lady luck.

40% = 8 tries???

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