A little bit off topic.. but how about those Skill Node Kits? Aren't they 70% probability? I've used 7 or 8 skill kits on a node so many times.
75%, and yes I've had 4 or 5 failures in a row. If my math is right(!) there's about 6% chance that could happen, which isn't small but seems to happen far more often than that. At least with kits you are wasting something that costs a couple of silver (or free with Leadership). A stack of 10 green wards is over 50,000 AD.
75%, and yes I've had 4 or 5 failures in a row. If my math is right(!) there's about 6% chance that could happen, which isn't small but seems to happen far more often than that. At least with kits you are wasting something that costs a couple of silver (or free with Leadership). A stack of 10 green wards is over 50,000 AD.
Again - off topic - so sorry in advance.
I used to get horrid numbers of skill node fails too.
I noticed (and i'm totally probably wrong here) that it always seemed to happen when i was off to the side, a bit too far away, or partially blocked by an object.
Now I make sure i right in front of node and fully stopped motion before I search.
My results are now quite consistent with 75% and I almost never seem to get more than 3 fails in a row.
I can't remember the last 5-6-7 fail attempt experience, which seemed to happen a bunch before I started being careful.
Again, I'm totally talkin' out my rear-end here even more then my above posts, if thats possible - but I suspect there is some proximity or environment issue that is causing some auto-fails.
75%, and yes I've had 4 or 5 failures in a row. If my math is right(!) there's about 6% chance that could happen, which isn't small but seems to happen far more often than that. At least with kits you are wasting something that costs a couple of silver (or free with Leadership). A stack of 10 green wards is over 50,000 AD.
Before Icewind Dale was released, I spent almost all my time farming these skill nodes in Sharandar and DreadRing. So many nodes I hit every day for hours, and the 7 or 8 failures only happened once a week maybe. But with months of doing this it amounted to many times for me.
I used to get horrid numbers of skill node fails too.
I noticed (and i'm totally probably wrong here) that it always seemed to happen when i was off to the side, a bit too far away, or partially blocked by an object.
Now I make sure i right in front of node and fully stopped motion before I search.
My results are now quite consistent with 75% and I almost never seem to get more than 3 fails in a row.
I can't remember the last 5-6-7 fail attempt experience, which seemed to happen a bunch before I started being careful.
Again, I'm totally talkin' out my rear-end here even more then my above posts, if thats possible - but I suspect there is some proximity or environment issue that is causing some auto-fails.
But that's just off-topic guess-work.
So sorry for it and back to topic.
It might be off-topic related to refining attempts, but it is relevant considering a discussion about PROBABILITIES.
Thanks for your info, I find it all very interesting.
0
weatherskyMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 10Arc User
edited May 2014
My take is this is just frustration over RNG not behaving as we want it to . . . not that it's "broken".
Generally speaking I've had about the same number of unexpected successes with low % chance attempts as those that just won't cooperate for several attempts.
Th most amazing: 1% chance to upgrade a Barkshield I think it was, didn't have a coalescent, figured I'd burn 3 or 4 Preservations because I was bored . . . and it proc'd on number 3.
1% chance.
So, ya roll the dice and they fall where they fall.
Doesn't feel broken to me.
There is nothing impossible to him who will try - Alexander the Great
You know the easiest way to shut up us people that just have bad luck (aparently) is to show the dice throw for the attempts (like the loot roll). Also you can keep the media of rolls, it s not much data, just one number (the sum) and the divisor (the number of rolls). After many rolls most people should have around 40-60 media.
A really simple thing could make a lot of players (like me) less suspicious about the system. It s nothing, but many things can be hidden behind the "it s just the odds" or "you mad bro, bad luck".
Here we finally have a person (6 pages later) who observes disproportional success.
That gives me hope.
However (obviously) your results don't discount anything anymore than my results prove anything.
I suspect someone will provide some hard data with a large enough sample to provide some real evidence soon enough
I suspect the number will be shown to be off.
I but can't and don't claim to know for sure.
Gratz on your success. I wish it were me. :-)
yeah most of the time you're going to find complaints about failure rather than reports of success here. all the happy people are currently picking up coins of waukeen. :]
I have failed so often with upgrades to enchants and picking skill nodes that I don't even bother trying any more. I ran my own personal test, no scientific validity, on trying to upgrade an R6 to R7 once per day on two different characters for 30 days. The result was 60 consecutive failures. Rarely was I able to open a skill node on the first try, usually took 2 or 3 attempts, sometimes up to 7. Rather than wasting my AD on P or C wards, I just buy my upgrades form the AH now.
Again, add the d100 rolls or equivalent for us to see on the random stuff. That way, not only we will have a concrete way to know if the game diecieve us or not, but it will also shut this threads up. Adding a media will also be pretty useful.
To understand why this bothers us so much is simple. It s like going to a casino that instead of having the roulette and diferent games, you only have a guy in the front desk that tells you if you lost or not after you gaive him the money. You don t know if the guy is being honest, you don t know if there is actually a mechanism that operates or if it s just some arbitrary decision. Will you trust such a casino? I certainly wouldn t.
And changing the issue, mr moderators, just makes it more shady.
Comments
I knew it was a mistake not to select her as my god! o.O
I WILL GET NO JUSTICE FROM THIS SYSTEM!!!!
SO I WILL LET THE GODS DECIDE!
I DEMAND AN UPGRADE BY COMBAT!!!
:-)
Again - off topic - so sorry in advance.
I used to get horrid numbers of skill node fails too.
I noticed (and i'm totally probably wrong here) that it always seemed to happen when i was off to the side, a bit too far away, or partially blocked by an object.
Now I make sure i right in front of node and fully stopped motion before I search.
My results are now quite consistent with 75% and I almost never seem to get more than 3 fails in a row.
I can't remember the last 5-6-7 fail attempt experience, which seemed to happen a bunch before I started being careful.
Again, I'm totally talkin' out my rear-end here even more then my above posts, if thats possible - but I suspect there is some proximity or environment issue that is causing some auto-fails.
But that's just off-topic guess-work.
So sorry for it and back to topic.
Before Icewind Dale was released, I spent almost all my time farming these skill nodes in Sharandar and DreadRing. So many nodes I hit every day for hours, and the 7 or 8 failures only happened once a week maybe. But with months of doing this it amounted to many times for me.
It might be off-topic related to refining attempts, but it is relevant considering a discussion about PROBABILITIES.
Thanks for your info, I find it all very interesting.
Generally speaking I've had about the same number of unexpected successes with low % chance attempts as those that just won't cooperate for several attempts.
Th most amazing: 1% chance to upgrade a Barkshield I think it was, didn't have a coalescent, figured I'd burn 3 or 4 Preservations because I was bored . . . and it proc'd on number 3.
1% chance.
So, ya roll the dice and they fall where they fall.
Doesn't feel broken to me.
A really simple thing could make a lot of players (like me) less suspicious about the system. It s nothing, but many things can be hidden behind the "it s just the odds" or "you mad bro, bad luck".
yeah most of the time you're going to find complaints about failure rather than reports of success here. all the happy people are currently picking up coins of waukeen. :]
To understand why this bothers us so much is simple. It s like going to a casino that instead of having the roulette and diferent games, you only have a guy in the front desk that tells you if you lost or not after you gaive him the money. You don t know if the guy is being honest, you don t know if there is actually a mechanism that operates or if it s just some arbitrary decision. Will you trust such a casino? I certainly wouldn t.
And changing the issue, mr moderators, just makes it more shady.