40% = 8 tries???

walk2k

Just tried to upgrade a BI enchant from 5 to 6.

This should have a 40% chance of success.

It took =====8===== tries!

SEVEN FAILURES!! at 40% chance!!

This has a 0.16% chance of happening! Obviously BROKEN! FIX the RNG!!!

rabbinicus

Since it is a 40% chance for each attempt, this doesn't mean the RNG is broken.

degraafination

That's nothing. Wait until you get 20-30 failures in a row. Then you'll be really ticked!

kabinoles

what about a 60 % and you still fail 5 times, and force you to buy a blue coal
cause the green aint help you for #$%^

oicidraz

kabinoles wrote: »

what about a 60 % and you still fail 5 times, and force you to buy a blue coal

LOL, with 1 Coalescent Ward you can buy more than 40 Preservation Wards, just 5 times and you were forced to do that?...

calvin1tag

Ya until you hit the 20-30 tries this isn't even a gripe

I spent about 400 US on green wards since I started playing this game so I know all about % and RNG making people a little insane!

lewstelamon01

Probability does not mean that you are guaranteed a certain outcome. It simply means the chance of a particular outcome among a random group.

Flip a coin twenty times. It's doubtful that you will get exactly ten heads and ten tails on every twenty flips, every single time. It's likely even that you'll get twenty heads and no tails.

Or, rolling a d20 with 5% probability of getting any given number. Sure you can roll that d20 exactly 20 times and never once get that number. Or, you can get it four times.

yarknarf

Yeah, I agree. Something is not right.

When ever I upgrade an artifact from green to blue I expect to fail at least once on the 90% chance of success.

Seems like I've had as many multi-fails at the 90% chance as I have had success on the first try.

Likewise, going from blue to purple, with a 50%, I expect to burn through 3-5 preservation wards.
That is almost always the case.
Once, that I can recall I upgraded a 50% artifact on the first go.

Maybe I'm just imagining things but I've felt for some time that the upgrade % is not calculating properly or as advertized or I'm just misunderstanding the system.

90% to me means on average 9 out 10 will succeed.
50% to means every other try succeeds.
I don't think that is actually what is happening.

valwryn

You do realize that even with a 90% chance that there is a probability of failing a million times. :eek:

lewstelamon01

yarknarf wrote: »

90% to me means on average 9 out 10 will succeed.
50% to means every other try succeeds.

You're thinking odds, not probability. Odds are the ratio of a particular outcome to all known outcomes. It's usually set. Probability, on the other hand, is the chance of a given outcome among all possible random outcomes.

There really are no "averages" to probability. Again, using the coin flip example. It's 50% that you'll get heads OR tails, yet if you flip a coin twenty times, it doesn't usually work out to an even split.

yarknarf

lewstelamon01 wrote: »

You're thinking odds, not probability. Odds are the ratio of a particular outcome to all known outcomes. It's usually set. Probability, on the other hand, is the chance of a given outcome among all possible random outcomes.

There really are no "averages" to probability. Again, using the coin flip example. It's 50% that you'll get heads OR tails, yet if you flip a coin twenty times, it doesn't usually work out to an even split.

lewstelamon01 wrote: »

Probability does not mean that you are guaranteed a certain outcome. It simply means the chance of a particular outcome among a random group.

Flip a coin twenty times. It's doubtful that you will get exactly ten heads and ten tails on every twenty flips, every single time. It's likely even that you'll get twenty heads and no tails.

Or, rolling a d20 with 5% probability of getting any given number. Sure you can roll that d20 exactly 20 times and never once get that number. Or, you can get it four times.

If I flipped a coin and it almost always came up a 3-5 heads results for each tail result I would seriously question the integrity of the coin being used regardless of my lack of understanding on the difference between odds and probablity.

But this isn't a coin flip, it's a complicated video game.

Of course it's possible that it's mine and others imagination and the coin just happens to give me more than my fair shares of heads or even that I only perceive it that way when it's not the case.

But it's also quite possible that the thing just isn't working properly because it's not as simple as a coin.

Anyone I've talked too, granted a small sample, feels that success rates are lower than advertised so I don't think it's just me getting the fails.

Again, I go through 3-5 preservation wards to upgrade on a 50% (odds? probabilty?)
? ^^seems fishy to me, layman that I am^^?

lewstelamon01

yarknarf wrote: »

If I flipped a coin and it almost always came up a 3-5 heads results for each tail result I would seriously question the integrity of the coin being used regardless of my lack of understanding on the difference between odds and probablity.

But this isn't a coin flip, it's a complicated video game.

Of course it's possible that it's mine and others imagination and the coin just happens to give me more than my fair shares of heads or even that I only perceive it that way when it's not the case.

But it's also quite possible that the thing just isn't working properly because it's not as simple as a coin.

Anyone I've talked too, granted a small sample, feels that success rates are lower than advertised so I don't think it's just me getting the fails.

Again, I go through 3-5 preservation wards to upgrade on a 50% (odds? probabilty?)
? ^^seems fishy to me, layman that I am^^?

It's still the same general principle. What it appears that you're saying is that you're guaranteed (or should be) by right a 1:2 chance of success if the screen says 50% ...and that's just not the case.

bioshrike

I feel that a lot of players' uncertainty regarding these matters would be aided by displaying the target number and what was actually rolled - it could be presented sort of like how combat numbers are shown in the log; "You had a 75% chance of success. Your roll: 90. Result: Roll Failed".

yarknarf

lewstelamon01 wrote: »

It's still the same general principle. What you're saying is that you're guaranteed by right a 1:2 chance of success if the screen says 50% ...and that's just not the case.

No.

Not what I expect.

I get how coin flips work, I've flipped a few.

I haven't just upgraded 4 artifacts and am upset I failed 3 out of those four.

What I'm saying is that I have 6 level 60 characters atm.

Each of those toons has 2-4 artifacts, majority purple, only a small few are still green.

Plus I have several lower level toons with an artifact, most at least blue.

That's many, many upgrades.

There gets a point when you should also see a little run of good luck or at least a little run of normal luck - but I haven't seen any of that

It's always (except that one single time I can recall) mutiple fails to get the success.

Maybe bad luck those 2 dozen+ times I've done the thing.

But I don't buy it.
I think it's screwy.

But...just one man's opinion, of course.

godlysoul2

I know what you mean. I don't care what probability says or the fact that failure is always an option at any given percent that isn't 100% regardless of attempts. From my experience, the % success rate seems inaccurate and lower in reality. Has anyone bulk tested success/failure rates for upgrading yet? If not it is definitely worth a shot, because the numbers seem incorrect. I'm not usually one for this kind of thing, but I might be willing to test this myself if it hasn't been done.

lazaroth666

Sometimes I have been lucky and got it in the first try, sometimes I've failed about 30 times in a row but I don't come here to forum just to cry about it, omg what's going on with the people? all you have to do is keep trying until you get it man, it's simple.

yarknarf

bioshrike wrote: »

I feel that a lot of players' uncertainty regarding these matters would be aided by displaying the target number and what was actually rolled - it could be presented sort of like how combat numbers are shown in the log; "You had a 75% chance of success. Your roll: 90. Result: Roll Failed".

That would result in an easier time testing the data for sure.

Another game I play had players complaining for ages untold about certain dice rolls, discounted by the developers as simple misperception.

Many tests run, including one player submitting a sample with 10,000 documented tests of the d20 roll and found the number 1 (critical fail) came up twice as much as it should.

It hasn't changed but at least the devs don't comment on misperception anymore and are simply silent on the issue.

Yeah, a die roll would help sus through whats going on here.

lazaroth666 wrote: »

Sometimes I have been lucky and got it in the first try, sometimes I've failed about 30 times in a row but I don't come here to forum just to cry about it, omg what's going on with the people? all you have to do is keep trying until you get it man, it's simple.

My eyes are dry my brother :-)

I'm not crying, I've never even brought it up till now.

But while theres a thread and we're on the subject I'll give my 2 cents, like you.

In fact, unless I missed a post most are simply saying they've noticed something similliar and aren't crying or hysterical or even particularly angry (I know I'm not angry).

Nothing wrong with that, right? Taking note of suspect game mechanics is how games improve, yes?

tinukeda

Ha, you think that's bad?
I failed on a skill node (75% chance of success) *7* times in a row the other day.
And then there are the times I get a 30% upgrade on the first try.

RNG is RNG

lazaroth666

yarknarf wrote: »

My eyes are dry my brother :-)

I'm not crying, I've never even brought it up till now.

But while theres a thread and we're on the subject I'll give my 2 cents, like you.

In fact, unless I missed a post most are simply saying they've noticed something similliar and aren't crying or hysterical or even particularly angry (I know I'm not angry).

Nothing wrong with that, right? Taking note of suspect game mechanics is how games improve, yes?

True, true. I freak out a bit after 30 failures in a row, it's odd. Sometimes I think that the % shown in the screen isn't real i.e it can be 25% but in the internal formula maybe is less, like 10% or 5%, because if we see a high % we will think that it doesn't matter how many tries are required, we will be able to upgrade it sooner or later and we keep spending money in the pwards.

yarknarf

lazaroth666 wrote: »

True, true. I freak out a bit after 30 failures in a row, it's odd. Sometimes I think that the % shown in the screen isn't real i.e it can be 25% but in the internal formula maybe is less, like 10% or 5%, because if we see a high % we will think that it doesn't matter how many tries are required, we will be able to upgrade it sooner or later and we keep spending money in the pwards.

No I highly doubt the % is exactly as shown. I'm sure it's more complicated, when you hit that upgrade button, than the computer generating one # from the RNG from 1-100 and compairing. (but what do i know, honestly)

I don't feel that ALL the RNG in the game are messed.

I hear complaints about the skill node 75% roll but that seems mostly in line to me.
I've had my fair share of 5+ skill fails for sure, which does begin to stretch probability.
But mostly i pull those on the first crack.

But the upgrade thing...I don't know...so much bad luck from everyone I've discussed it with.

In fact, nobody here has even said "I've upgraded 16 artifacts and half or more have succeeded first try"

The counter arguement is RNG is RNG - as if each and every RNGs produces accurate results when we all know from experience that errors and things not working properly are totally commonplace in any game.
This game is no exception. Why can't that be broken? So many other things are (like any game out there).

RNG is RNG is too dismissive and broad and precludes investigation whether RNG is in fact RNG rather than intended to be random(ish) but instead suffers from an erroneous bias, something that does happen often in games.

veshorok

Want to add another 2 cents to the discussion. I always recall a very old joke:
What's the probability to meet a dinosaur while walking down the street? - Well, it's 50/50. Either you'll meet him or not.

concerning the issue: one guy from my guild upgrades armor/weapon enchantments without using any wards and says it's like every 4th or 5th try is successful for him. He's really enjoying meet that dinosaur..

telnights

My wife had 5 fails on a 90% tonight.

kevinc55

And I've had a success on one try at 25% - with a preservation ward. And sometimes at 80 or 90, it takes me several (i have 10 chars, so do this pretty often). It's a random chance, and the same random chance each time.

nurmood

RNG seems ok to me - never spent and exessive amount of preservation Wards. 90% upgrades most of the time on the first try...

karakla1

A chance of 50 percent can mean that you can have 17 times the wrong outcome. That is the badest possible outcome.

brobora

It depends on the roll range.

50% of 1 and 2 as options scales closer to the 50% mark over time.

50% of 1 and 50000 as the range and you will find people getting abnormal attitudes to rng.

This thread is pretty much a request to shrink the roll width of the click, which is more dependant on the community's activity than it is on a simple dice roll.

When the failures hit, it's often a good time to relog, do something with your character and try again later.

karakla1

You will get closer to the 50% if you complete the task more often. If you only make 2 enchantments with this chance you are more likely to have freake values. If you have 100 complete enchantmenty you come closer to 50%.

fdsakhfduewhfiuf

walk2k wrote: »

This has a 0.16% chance of happening! Obviously BROKEN! FIX the RNG!!!

Actually the chance of getting a success after seven failures is 0,4 * 0,6^7 = 0,1119... = 1,119...%, assuming the success probability is 40%.

fdsakhfduewhfiuf

brobora wrote: »

It depends on the roll range.

50% of 1 and 2 as options scales closer to the 50% mark over time.

50% of 1 and 50000 as the range and you will find people getting abnormal attitudes to rng.

This thread is pretty much a request to shrink the roll width of the click, which is more dependant on the community's activity than it is on a simple dice roll.

When the failures hit, it's often a good time to relog, do something with your character and try again later.

Do you have any evidence for your claim?

I doubt that this is the case but due to the fact that only pseudo-randon numbers can be created via software it may do strange things.

fdsakhfduewhfiuf

karakla1 wrote: »

A chance of 50 percent can mean that you can have 17 times the wrong outcome. That is the badest possible outcome.

No. You can have a wrong outcome millions of times in a row. There is no limit. I just gets more and more unlikely.

ironzerg79

If you really want to cook your noodle, think about this. In infinite universes, with infinite possibilities, there's an infinite number of cases where something that succeeds 99.999999% of the time has failed an infinite number of times in a row :eek:

And whether it's speculation or not, I've heard people say to wait a few seconds in between attempts to avoid chains of failures. As the above poster said, computers aren't capable of true randomness, only simulating randomness, so there could be something in the simulation at that particular moment that's saying FAIL FAIL FAIL.