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coalescent wards; what is the drop % probability?
krisst0f
Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild Users Posts: 0 Arc User
Ok,
Once again, Cryptic is standing to its name by being CRYPTIC...
In the past, I used to get about 20% of coalescent wards when opening the coffers of augmentation... then a few months back, I barely got any at all... So in the last 3 weeks, I have been stacking them. I ended up with 15 and I opened them up over a minute span.
Result: ZERO!!!! Really? ZERO?? What kind of hidden Bull**** is that? When I say 15, it is really over a 2 months span 1 out of 40...
That's another example of the devs/producers using the game as their playground, and changing critical things without letting players know.
Same thing with enchants that don't include description, OR WORK AT ALL... (Tranquil enchant anyone?))
Stop taking everyone for dummies and be transparent for once!!!
so let's try again... WHAT IS THE RATE/PROBABILITY OF COALESCENT WARD TO DROPS? to me it is definitely <5%...
:mad:
Once again, Cryptic is standing to its name by being CRYPTIC...
In the past, I used to get about 20% of coalescent wards when opening the coffers of augmentation... then a few months back, I barely got any at all... So in the last 3 weeks, I have been stacking them. I ended up with 15 and I opened them up over a minute span.
Result: ZERO!!!! Really? ZERO?? What kind of hidden Bull**** is that? When I say 15, it is really over a 2 months span 1 out of 40...
That's another example of the devs/producers using the game as their playground, and changing critical things without letting players know.
Same thing with enchants that don't include description, OR WORK AT ALL... (Tranquil enchant anyone?))
Stop taking everyone for dummies and be transparent for once!!!
so let's try again... WHAT IS THE RATE/PROBABILITY OF COALESCENT WARD TO DROPS? to me it is definitely <5%...
:mad:
Post edited by krisst0f on
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We are definitely dominating, and we are always about to win.
Not saying your a hacker or anything. But I'd bet your trying to make the judgement call of either selling the box, or not, and want a proof to decide whether it is more financially profitable for you to open the box yourself or put it on the Auction House. I get that.
But to me, it kinda defeats the whole point of the chest. You're not supposed to know what you'll get.
"D*mn wizards," said Morik the Rogue.
Learn what a GWF and GF really are: The History of Fighters
Well cryptic used to put the best items of grab bags at a 1% chance. Lockboxes, aswell. Not sure if NW has the same rates as CO. But it feels like it, since they tested the lockboxes for NW on CO/STO.
1-5% seems about right, but it feels more like 5% to me. Mounts from lockboxes have a flat 1% drop chance, people tested this on CO and it was confirmed by formulas. No clue about enchantments or companions, though. Not sure if they are even using the same formulas, but i am quite sure they are since cryptic loves to recycle old things.
even if it were 5% that means I'm the luckiest person in the world to be averaging 20%+ since beginning of open beta...
It's ~20% chance.
We are definitely dominating, and we are always about to win.
Cryptics RNG tends to be streaky. In CO id often get several rare drops nearly sequentially. And then have long steaks of nothing. If you are on a bad roll. Its best to stop and try later. Conversely if you are doing well its best to keep the streak going.
You gotta explain the maths there... a 20% means 1 out of 5... The probability is 0.2... The more you try, the closer you should tend to that limit... Now technically, you "could" open 1,000,000 and not get any at all, but in the real world, it is impossible.
The only thing I can imagine is that the devs skewed "randomness" to not be random, like a probability that changes based on frequency of drops on that day...... hence they should just say it (without exactly telling how so there is no exploit), but they should not claim it is x% chance, which implies randomness, if it is not...
Am I missing something?
Yeah, this happened to me with the Harmon catalyst grab bag. I had gotten 3 HC in a row, then nothing for ages...
Can't we just log onto the PTS and open 1000 boxes? That's what people did over at CO to determine the percentages. No clue if the NW PTS features free zen/celestial coins, etc.
Things I've noticed about their RNG: It's consistent, if you succeed a 20% fusing, the next try will succeed as well, maybe even a third time, just to have it fail the next 40.
If you get a Armor drop in DD, you'll most likely get another one next run that day. If not, tough luck, but you could call it a day and come back tomorrow..
Basically, their RNG gives extremely consistent results, if you're not getting blue wards frequently, tough luck, you're one of the not so blessed ones.
I've opened over 100 for sure, I've had 5 characters since almost the beginning of open beta and have opened my box on all of them every week. RNG is RNG, I opened 60 or so lockboxes in open beta and got pretty much nothing. Opened 20 dark forest boxes and got a bunch of great assets and an owlbear on my 20th box.
I know ~120 sample size isn't huge but it's more than most, and out of my sample size I've seen an average of ~20%. most weeks one, rarely 0 or 2.
We are definitely dominating, and we are always about to win.
My best day was getting 3 Vibora Bay werewolf feet. Right in a row from 3 sequential sets of mobs. (back when they were selling for 2000g each) only to have it happen again the very next day. There are few words that can properly describe how stupidly giddy I was after that.
The down side of that was afterwards I didnt see another VB costume drop for nearly a month.
I had a very similar incident, but with new shadow blood blades. The rng is crazy.
But i also had to kill over 1200 mobs to get a voodoo scythe drop x.x
Wow. Defensive, aren't you?
I think my use of the word 'exploit' was appropriate. In video game land it's become synonymous with 'cheating'. But I was actually using it by it's older definition, of using something to it's best potential gain.
Yes. You are exploiting if you use the tools at your disposal for every possible advantage.
To the point at hand, I'm not a min-maxer. I understand how stats work, but I don't go out of my way to make sure I have every skill outside of diminished returns.
I'm the kind of guy who hates playing poker with the card counter. Sure, the guy counting cards is doing everything he can to win. But it just takes away the flavor of the game, in my eyes. Same with knowing exactly what my odds are for everything. Just ruins it for me, personally.
"D*mn wizards," said Morik the Rogue.
Learn what a GWF and GF really are: The History of Fighters
Part of the problem is the lack of trust that arises due to the general unresponsiveness of the devs and GMs. Maybe the game is just understaffed. This makes it easier to be profitable, but overworked people are more mistake prone and simply don't have time to give players the TLC we have see in past titles. I can remember waits of less than 30 minutes in COH to rescue stuck missions, usually when either spawn or knockback put a key mob out of play. They would find it and fix the mission in real time, and we would go ahead and finish. There were bugs then too but not in the locust like numbers we get here.
The forum moderators are nice guys but in most respects they are powerless in game. Having someone to blow off steam with helps but its no substitute for true customer service.
I think you are unto something here... I feel exactly the same.
Look, I still think this is a GREAT game overall, but little by little, and consistent "small" frustrations add up, and aggravate players like me who spent a lot of time, and "some" $$ (that was before the "nightmare thursday" tho) trying to get better at it. Maybe I reached the rate of diminishing returns already...
It is not too late and I am hopeful they will communicate more about how some obscure mechanics work and stop nerfing classes without telling anyone... It would definitely help if they could also fix what should have worked for months and is still broken tho (tranquil, elven enchants, GF block bug,... ) but I divert here...
Understaffed would explain a lot.. And, on the topic of drops, they need to fix the RNG.. The [Insert class here] day's in CN, or Fragment day's in MC, or [insert class name] days in [Insert dungeon name] are just silly..
Standard day in CN for me: 2 or 6 mainhands for [class_1], 2 or 6 offhands for[class_1], 2 main/offhands for [class_2], 1 random main/offhand for another class.
This shows how broken the RNG is.. 8 of 11 drops would be for the same class, and 6 would be the same.. (Yes, this is actual data from running CN..)
Or when you run GG, and gets kicked after the 4th run on your DC, since the boss had dropped DC stuff 4 times in 4 runs..
These things actually happen, and either, chance is playing with us all, or their RNG needs a rework..
Out of 7 characters opening coffers every week since open beta i always recieved at least 1 coal ward per week, but usualy 2, some rare times 3, and if no ward there was usualy 2 enchants and a preservation ward,
But since just before the release of Feywild i have had 1 and in the last 3 weeks out of a total of 21 coffers opened i have never had any at all.
It does seem slowly but surely anything and everything that used to reward somthing worthwile sinking time into is becoming more and more not worth the time input anymore, has as happened to most professions, most hade fairly decent rewards for the huge time sinks and costs of pruchasing high rank asepts, but now most are not worth the time to do many have next to no rewards to justify the tiem and costs input to put into them
Random is random. There were times I wondered if they had changed it. But now I think its just crazy random. Last week I finally got most of my invoking characters to hit 7 days at once. I got 10 Coal Wards out of 29 characters. This week it'll be 31 characters at once. I expect it to be less (obviously), but it will be interesting to see by how much.
The company didn't just start up yesterday. Before they started offering lockboxes they would have checked on the regulations for doing so. Since they don't post odds that's a pretty clear indication they don't have to.
Yes a agree 'random' is 'random' but the sheer amount of players posting and comenting in game concerning the noticable lower drop rate of coal wards does lead to a obvious fact the drop rate is lower.
There are too many players whom have personaly noticed a lower drop rate to just put it down to their own 'bad luck'
If this is the case then in the past month or so a high amount of players have been having a high amount of 'bad luck' in the most things in the game..LOL
Honestly I don't think they messed with the drop rate at all and many of these players are just victims of the RNG. I have 10 toons that are on the same 7 day rotation and last week I got 4 Coal Wards from 9 boxes (one toon got a party popper instead of a chest somehow) and this week I got 3 out of 10.
- i have 5 characters that pray daily
- they have been getting the ward pack once a week each since open beta
- I get 1 blue ward on the average per 2 weeks
therefore on the average over that timeframe is 1 in 10 *however* it may be that the rate was recently "adjusted".
I am inclined to agree. If I fail a couple of rank 3 or rank 4 fuses in a row, I can be confident enough that I'll continue failing enough of them that I should stop. If I try later and get a bunch of successes, I know I should keep going until I run out of things to fuse. (I also only fuse anything higher than 1s or 2s while having a Gambler's Fortune buff up, unless it's a total inventory emergency.)
This is why people who scream in zone chat about how many fusions they have failed in a row are dumb. Stop doing that and come back to it later, you ninnies.
I got 3 coalescent wards out of last week's coffers (9 characters). This week, I haven't gotten any so far, though a couple remain unopened (awaiting buff again).
If you save all your coffers and open them in a big rush, you might hit a bad streak or a good one. I'm not noticing it making much of a difference if I open each character's box individually or consolidate them onto one before opening, other than consolidation saving space.
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I feel that pre Feywild, the chance of getting a coal ward was about 1/8 or 1/10, but I am aware that a sample size of 35 isn't big enough to actually say the drop rate was changed. It merely feels that way to me specifically.
+1
word. /10char