My 13 may 2021 5000 zen order was received yesterday 27 February 2022.
My May 14, 2021 order still hasn't begun fulfilling yet...hopefully, soon....
Let us know, it shouldn't be long now. The ETA is set for 1st or 2nd, but it could be as late as the 3rd or 4th.
@mentinmindmaker The android Data on Star Trek was watching a pot boil to understand the human phrase. He told Commander Riker the pot boiled at the same time no matter how many times he viewed it. Riker suggested to Data, he should try turning off his internal chronometer, because humans don't have internal clocks. Data was taken by surprise when the pot boiled.
In the future, when they invent the transporter, I am having one installed into my lower abdomen. No more need to use the bathroom, I will beam the bowl movements away. No need to make trips to the bathroom.
Just don't expect me to watch any pots, I am a pot licker!
Looking for updates : Have one from 5/19/21 that still hasn't gone through as of 3/10/22 @ 4:51pm cst.
According to the ETA on my spreadsheet (link in signature) it is not officially overdue, but on the second day now. Let me know when it arrives, it could be any day now.
5/19/2021 295.8 days waited 3/10/2022 5/20/2021 296.6 days waited 3/12/2022
By the way, I am still lurking here. Mr. Blargskull is out of the country on business, enjoy the silence.
I just got done testing on Champions Online, 100% functional in Linux OS. However I am not surprised with the system requirements. They never upgraded beyond Windows XP 32 bit on that game. I also checked on other online and stand alone games as well. The stand alone games are one and done. The online games, I have to come back and update every few months. Not like I get paid, it is just a hobby.
@sobac it could be a momentary glitch or worse case scenario, the decision to pull the plug on the ZAX has been decided? I agree with @than0z#0812 , it is probably only a localized glitch, otherwise you would be reading tons of others in here complaining about it. I hope the system returns your data.
Also it could be another dry spell, since I read about a recent FFXIV update somewhere. I almost fell on the floor laughing when I read the disclaimer, they recently ended Windows XP and DX9 support? A friend of mine checks on the game says, he has it working in Linux OS. However he rated it Gold, because he had to tweak the DX11. From what he described, it did not sound like a novice could easily set it up, I would rank it Silver. From what he told me, it sounded more like a cash grab than a game. You buy the game, buy the characters, buy items, etc. spend and spend, but he has lots money. I will stick with the games I can afford.
Have an order placed at 5/30/2021 which has still not come in yet.
Thanks for the datapoint. Wait time is still increasing I see.
What worries me about the entire situation is that the queue length has been stable around 65M plus-minus for this period.
The ever increasing wait time means falling funds per day being channeled into the ZAX, and since it probably mostly are new people that feeds the ZAX queue it could signify falling rate of new players joining Neverwinter.
And if we assume that the percentage of total ZAX purchase that goes into ZAX is constant, it also indicates directly reduced income for Cryptic.
Less income for Cryptic cannot be good in any way.
In fact I have a nagging suspicion that there are no developers working regularly on the game any more, just a few pulled over from other activities for specific projects, like fixing bards and making new minimum size mods.
After the Magic disaster I am certain Cryptic are hard at work on their next mmorpg. They cannot keep the company alive on the falling income of their old games. And most likely Embracer is supporting that - getting funds to develop their next big game likely was one of the reasons for joining Embracer.
But that means developer resources are sidetracked from the big main development project to do a minimum of effort to keep NW running until they can (they hope) move the players to their new game.
My guess is we will see Neverwinter 2 in 2-3 years. They cannot announce this until it is almost ready, as such an announcement will make the interest in and income from the old games plummet.
I agree with pretty much all the points in the comment above, but just to throw in a potential additional explanation - the ARC server has been failing to connect with Banks in most countries for over 2 months now (that i know of, could be a lot longer), making it impossible for many players to purchase ZEN through it. So its quite possible new players are joining the game at the same rate, they simply can't cant make the purchases they usually would to feed ZEN into the exchange. There are ways around the issue, you can still make purchases via Steam, or by going onto the ARC website and purchasing from there, but my guess is most new players wont bother looking for alternative solutions to make payments and just assume its not currently possible period.
@mentinmindmaker my guess would be, Cryptic is not working much on Neverwinter. Across the forums there is silence from anything other than "official business only" reports of routine server maintenance. Not much casual chit-chat from any of the developers or CMs. If they are working on another game to release, they are probably working on a topic that many have discussed for the past ten years. With Gearbox being the sole IP holder it would be easy to create Borderlands the MMO at this time. Cost would be significantly low, since Gearbox has the 3D maps, models, engine, and would only need to plug into the network a vast online database. Converting a successful 3D first person shooter into the next MMO loot for the company. That is my best guess at present. Until then they probably will continue radio silence and just do business as usual. Champions, Neverwinter, and Star Trek will continue to make revenues, even if the popularity of the game is low.
@benyr there are many variables at work, it is very possible banking could be an issue. In the past year, anytime a special event occurs the spending increases due to old and new players alike. I am basing this from information we have compiled here in this thread. While recent changes haven't been well received by players, they still seem to spend money since users like @rocketwaltz#3822 just got some Zen the other day.
I updated the sheet. @tchefi#6735 and myself are collecting this unbiased data to illuminate the current returns, something that Cryptic Studios could do themselves. However players knowing the wait for Zen, would be adverse from their perspective.
This order was made when the backlog was around 69,2M. We are yet to reach orders at the backlog historical highest (70.5M for those made around 15th june 2021)
The "growing rate" of the waiting time was continuously and significantly slowing down after the "bonding stone singularity", which made me hoped we would see it become negative (waiting would decrease) by around next sept. But I'm not so hopeful anymore... it has started to rise again since 3-4 weeks, but this time without any clear correlation between orders and backlog (at least to my perception).
Does it means there was a change in behaviour from Zen holders/buyers regarding the Zax ? Did "preparations" for jubilee has started more than 1 month earlier this year ? Is there less new players/casuals/whales to be fooled into spending Zen in the Zax ? I don't know (and i'm also not really playing anymore since mod 22 :P).
...since it probably mostly are new people that feeds the ZAX queue it could signify falling rate of new players joining Neverwinter.
Cryptic actually made a major move to avoid many potential new players. They terminated the W7 support.
I do not want to open a discussion about safety or technical benefits of newer systems, just pointing out one advantage that this game had over the competition. Advantage which is now gone. The new and rising MMOs are usually not supporting old systems, so Neverwinter used to have a chance to catch some leftovers. That is gone. (And sincerely, you cannot compete with popular MMOs on equal footing without a stellar marketing. Neverwinter does not have that.)
For potential gains it would make more sense to announce a support for Linux instead of cutting of W7. (frankly, as this game runs even on PS, they already do have a multi-platform support) But most choices in this game are made with a notion that having a player-base is actually a bad thing.
Off Topic @rikitaki other users might think this is funny, but I happen to know there are tons of Windows users still dedicated to Windows XP. While it is mostly used in office settings, some military applications, and there are professionals I meet up with on a regular basis still running XP. I currently run Linux OS Xubuntu 20.04 myself, I do recommend it for a good replacement OS. While only 4% of gamers run Linux OS, imagine telling your boss, we are going to ignore 4% of the sales, because they are just small potatoes. If you make as little as, $100,000 per month in sales, you just told your boss, $4,000 per month is nothing but coffee money.
While most Windows 7 users probably moved into Windows 10, let's assume 2% (I don't have the actual numbers) didn't make the move. With the example above, the loss in sales would be $2,000 per month. I keep telling my wife, some companies are too lazy to pick up easy money off the floor but I sure do. Now some Mr. Know-it-all will say, But the cost to maintain Windows 7 is a lot more. No, it is not. Because your game company is not Microsoft, the only reason to eliminate the older versions of Windows is to bootlick Microsoft. Microsoft wants those users to move out of XP, 7, 8, 10, and into Windows 11 with the improved analytics (so they can market you as a product) because you are not the client. It is easier to get that data from the current OS, than having to sift through all the old versions of Windows.
Xubuntu is upgrading later this month to 22.04, but I have options, I can keep my 20.04 or switch to another distribution, if I want. I would like to say there is no pressure to upgrade, but even in the Linux communities there are user who give you hell for using 19.04 or 18.04, because they are the old standard. I once recommended on a forum, the person to try an older version, since they owned an older PC. I got shot down by the moderator telling me to stop spreading "bad practices". I can run all three Cryptic games in Linux OS without much issue. I have been off messing with Apex Legends with another person. We can't see each other in game, but I think it is EA and not the Linux OS.
Meanwhile Mr. Blargskull left for parts unknown across the Atlantic, I haven't heard from him since mid to late March now. I hope he is doing well over there and I am still feeding his fish. Also I made a spreadsheet today for the PS4 ZAX. They are only 3 to 4 months in the hole.
@hotfrostworm The thing is, the suggestion for a game to support some OS was never about "only x% gamers run on this". Because that would assume everyone has an equal chance to attract a customer. Which is not true - in the first place the customer has to somehow come across to your product. That happens mostly either through hearsay or through marketing. No matter what the content of your game is, a game with an average of a thousand players per day and non-existent marketing will attract less new people than something with a million regulars supported by omnipresent advertising.
If you are looking for a game to play... even in google search there is usually no reason to scroll past the first page - you do so only if the first few choices did not suit your requirements. That requirement could have been for example mentioned W7 support... But damn, there is definitely not exactly a fierce competition for the first PLACE in google search for a phrase "linux compatible mmo".
I agree with what you said - just adding: "if you are in the position of dealing with scraps anyway, take as much as you can".
1
micky1p00Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 3,594Arc User
While most Windows 7 users probably moved into Windows 10, let's assume 2% (I don't have the actual numbers) didn't make the move. With the example above, the loss in sales would be $2,000 per month. I keep telling my wife, some companies are too lazy to pick up easy money off the floor but I sure do. Now some Mr. Know-it-all will say, But the cost to maintain Windows 7 is a lot more. No, it is not. Because your game company is not Microsoft, the only reason to eliminate the older versions of Windows is to bootlick Microsoft. Microsoft wants those users to move out of XP, 7, 8, 10, and into Windows 11 with the improved analytics (so they can market you as a product) because you are not the client. It is easier to get that data from the current OS, than having to sift through all the old versions of Windows.
Finally someone who actually knows their stuff and not like those pesky Know-it-all. Since you know your stuff, I'm really interested to know why you think that the 2% (from the example) windows 7 users are 2% of the income, why not 0.1% for example?
Why there is no cost to supporting legacy build targets, if even just adding the build target on modern VS wouldn't work out of the box?
How you manage to maintain compile and test pipelines at 0 cost? I just spent few days at work updating those build pipelines due to legacy dependencies so I would love to know how to avoid this in the future while maintaining infinite backwards compatibility and using new features.
Also I would like to know how to avoid being a "lazy company". I'm not sure how the person who decides can be lazy in that aspect, since they are not doing the work. You just ask a Dev to do everything that's needed so it complies, and you tell the QA team to check it, and they just do it, since they are paid to do it. So I apologize for not understanding, and appreciate any explanation how a company can be lazy in that aspect. From what I've seen either it's profitable or not, you increase revenue or not. If an employee is lazy, they just get sent home.
It's truly the best and worst of the internet where everyone free to post everything they want, without any actual expertise or knowledge. I'm sure some of those know-it-all have no clue, probably just writing bash scripts and doing freelance IT or something but no actual involvement in production code nor work for a company that does software as a product.
Thanks in advance for any insight! Would love to learn from people who know the stuff.
While most Windows 7 users probably moved into Windows 10, let's assume 2% (I don't have the actual numbers) didn't make the move. With the example above, the loss in sales would be $2,000 per month. I keep telling my wife, some companies are too lazy to pick up easy money off the floor but I sure do. Now some Mr. Know-it-all will say, But the cost to maintain Windows 7 is a lot more. No, it is not. Because your game company is not Microsoft, the only reason to eliminate the older versions of Windows is to bootlick Microsoft. Microsoft wants those users to move out of XP, 7, 8, 10, and into Windows 11 with the improved analytics (so they can market you as a product) because you are not the client. It is easier to get that data from the current OS, than having to sift through all the old versions of Windows.
Finally someone who actually knows their stuff and not like those pesky Know-it-all. Since you know your stuff, I'm really interested to know why you think that the 2% (from the example) windows 7 users are 2% of the income, why not 0.1% for example?
Why there is no cost to supporting legacy build targets, if even just adding the build target on modern VS wouldn't work out of the box?
How you manage to maintain compile and test pipelines at 0 cost? I just spent few days at work updating those build pipelines due to legacy dependencies so I would love to know how to avoid this in the future while maintaining infinite backwards compatibility and using new features.
Also I would like to know how to avoid being a "lazy company". I'm not sure how the person who decides can be lazy in that aspect, since they are not doing the work. You just ask a Dev to do everything that's needed so it complies, and you tell the QA team to check it, and they just do it, since they are paid to do it. So I apologize for not understanding, and appreciate any explanation how a company can be lazy in that aspect. From what I've seen either it's profitable or not, you increase revenue or not. If an employee is lazy, they just get sent home.
It's truly the best and worst of the internet where everyone free to post everything they want, without any actual expertise or knowledge. I'm sure some of those know-it-all have no clue, probably just writing bash scripts and doing freelance IT or something but no actual involvement in production code nor work for a company that does software as a product.
Thanks in advance for any insight! Would love to learn from people who know the stuff.
Please, both of you, I opened that offtopick and I am sorry, so calm down and leave it be. We have 3 different points of view and that does not mean there is a piece of truth only in one of those.
@micky1p00 You are surely right that any programmer would prefer to have target machines as uniform as possible. All variations mean added difficulty, therefore most likely additional cost. (I know what a coding disaster for the latest MOD was for example that some PS players had friends... - just joking here, I really get you) However, I think @hotfrostworm is kinda right as well. They did not exactly shed away HW, and I surely doubt they rewrote the whole game from scratch - so they kinda do have to maintain backwards compatibility with their own code anyway. My main point was then targeted at attracting new customers. (While I surely cannot say I have any idea if it would be cost effective, of course.)
Comments
@mentinmindmaker The android Data on Star Trek was watching a pot boil to understand the human phrase. He told Commander Riker the pot boiled at the same time no matter how many times he viewed it. Riker suggested to Data, he should try turning off his internal chronometer, because humans don't have internal clocks. Data was taken by surprise when the pot boiled.
We need more pot watchers!
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
25,000 Zen ordered on 5.14.21; filled on 3.2.22 between 1:02pm and 6:44pm Central time.
Just don't expect me to watch any pots, I am a pot licker!
Just killing time...
According to the ETA on my spreadsheet (link in signature) it is not officially overdue, but on the second day now. Let me know when it arrives, it could be any day now.
5/19/2021 295.8 days waited 3/10/2022
5/20/2021 296.6 days waited 3/12/2022
After the 12th it will be officially over due.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Next order is from June 27. Here's to hoping it comes early lol
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Ordered 5/21/21 and received a few days ago, pretty sure it was 3/16/22 (can't confirm it coz log is empty)
I just got done testing on Champions Online, 100% functional in Linux OS. However I am not surprised with the system requirements. They never upgraded beyond Windows XP 32 bit on that game. I also checked on other online and stand alone games as well. The stand alone games are one and done. The online games, I have to come back and update every few months. Not like I get paid, it is just a hobby.
@sobac it could be a momentary glitch or worse case scenario, the decision to pull the plug on the ZAX has been decided? I agree with @than0z#0812 , it is probably only a localized glitch, otherwise you would be reading tons of others in here complaining about it. I hope the system returns your data.
Also it could be another dry spell, since I read about a recent FFXIV update somewhere. I almost fell on the floor laughing when I read the disclaimer, they recently ended Windows XP and DX9 support? A friend of mine checks on the game says, he has it working in Linux OS. However he rated it Gold, because he had to tweak the DX11. From what he described, it did not sound like a novice could easily set it up, I would rank it Silver. From what he told me, it sounded more like a cash grab than a game. You buy the game, buy the characters, buy items, etc. spend and spend, but he has lots money.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Posted on 25/05/2021 and received on 27/03/2022.
I stopped playing just wanted to update here.
Regards
Thanks!
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Order Received: 3/30/2022
Have an order placed at 5/30/2021 which has still not come in yet.
What worries me about the entire situation is that the queue length has been stable around 65M plus-minus for this period.
The ever increasing wait time means falling funds per day being channeled into the ZAX, and since it probably mostly are new people that feeds the ZAX queue it could signify falling rate of new players joining Neverwinter.
And if we assume that the percentage of total ZAX purchase that goes into ZAX is constant, it also indicates directly reduced income for Cryptic.
Less income for Cryptic cannot be good in any way.
In fact I have a nagging suspicion that there are no developers working regularly on the game any more, just a few pulled over from other activities for specific projects, like fixing bards and making new minimum size mods.
After the Magic disaster I am certain Cryptic are hard at work on their next mmorpg. They cannot keep the company alive on the falling income of their old games. And most likely Embracer is supporting that - getting funds to develop their next big game likely was one of the reasons for joining Embracer.
But that means developer resources are sidetracked from the big main development project to do a minimum of effort to keep NW running until they can (they hope) move the players to their new game.
My guess is we will see Neverwinter 2 in 2-3 years. They cannot announce this until it is almost ready, as such an announcement will make the interest in and income from the old games plummet.
There are ways around the issue, you can still make purchases via Steam, or by going onto the ARC website and purchasing from there, but my guess is most new players wont bother looking for alternative solutions to make payments and just assume its not currently possible period.
@benyr there are many variables at work, it is very possible banking could be an issue. In the past year, anytime a special event occurs the spending increases due to old and new players alike. I am basing this from information we have compiled here in this thread. While recent changes haven't been well received by players, they still seem to spend money since users like @rocketwaltz#3822 just got some Zen the other day.
I updated the sheet. @tchefi#6735 and myself are collecting this unbiased data to illuminate the current returns, something that Cryptic Studios could do themselves. However players knowing the wait for Zen, would be adverse from their perspective.
Reason for edit: Typos
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
We are yet to reach orders at the backlog historical highest (70.5M for those made around 15th june 2021)
The "growing rate" of the waiting time was continuously and significantly slowing down after the "bonding stone singularity", which made me hoped we would see it become negative (waiting would decrease) by around next sept.
But I'm not so hopeful anymore... it has started to rise again since 3-4 weeks, but this time without any clear correlation between orders and backlog (at least to my perception).
Does it means there was a change in behaviour from Zen holders/buyers regarding the Zax ? Did "preparations" for jubilee has started more than 1 month earlier this year ? Is there less new players/casuals/whales to be fooled into spending Zen in the Zax ?
I don't know (and i'm also not really playing anymore since mod 22 :P).
Order received: 4/6/2022
I do not want to open a discussion about safety or technical benefits of newer systems, just pointing out one advantage that this game had over the competition. Advantage which is now gone. The new and rising MMOs are usually not supporting old systems, so Neverwinter used to have a chance to catch some leftovers. That is gone. (And sincerely, you cannot compete with popular MMOs on equal footing without a stellar marketing. Neverwinter does not have that.)
For potential gains it would make more sense to announce a support for Linux instead of cutting of W7. (frankly, as this game runs even on PS, they already do have a multi-platform support)
But most choices in this game are made with a notion that having a player-base is actually a bad thing.
@rikitaki other users might think this is funny, but I happen to know there are tons of Windows users still dedicated to Windows XP. While it is mostly used in office settings, some military applications, and there are professionals I meet up with on a regular basis still running XP. I currently run Linux OS Xubuntu 20.04 myself, I do recommend it for a good replacement OS. While only 4% of gamers run Linux OS, imagine telling your boss, we are going to ignore 4% of the sales, because they are just small potatoes. If you make as little as, $100,000 per month in sales, you just told your boss, $4,000 per month is nothing but coffee money.
While most Windows 7 users probably moved into Windows 10, let's assume 2% (I don't have the actual numbers) didn't make the move. With the example above, the loss in sales would be $2,000 per month. I keep telling my wife, some companies are too lazy to pick up easy money off the floor but I sure do. Now some Mr. Know-it-all will say, But the cost to maintain Windows 7 is a lot more. No, it is not. Because your game company is not Microsoft, the only reason to eliminate the older versions of Windows is to bootlick Microsoft. Microsoft wants those users to move out of XP, 7, 8, 10, and into Windows 11 with the improved analytics (so they can market you as a product) because you are not the client. It is easier to get that data from the current OS, than having to sift through all the old versions of Windows.
Xubuntu is upgrading later this month to 22.04, but I have options, I can keep my 20.04 or switch to another distribution, if I want. I would like to say there is no pressure to upgrade, but even in the Linux communities there are user who give you hell for using 19.04 or 18.04, because they are the old standard. I once recommended on a forum, the person to try an older version, since they owned an older PC. I got shot down by the moderator telling me to stop spreading "bad practices". I can run all three Cryptic games in Linux OS without much issue. I have been off messing with Apex Legends with another person. We can't see each other in game, but I think it is EA and not the Linux OS.
Meanwhile Mr. Blargskull left for parts unknown across the Atlantic, I haven't heard from him since mid to late March now. I hope he is doing well over there and I am still feeding his fish. Also I made a spreadsheet today for the PS4 ZAX. They are only 3 to 4 months in the hole.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
If you are looking for a game to play... even in google search there is usually no reason to scroll past the first page - you do so only if the first few choices did not suit your requirements. That requirement could have been for example mentioned W7 support...
But damn, there is definitely not exactly a fierce competition for the first PLACE in google search for a phrase "linux compatible mmo".
I agree with what you said - just adding: "if you are in the position of dealing with scraps anyway, take as much as you can".
Why there is no cost to supporting legacy build targets, if even just adding the build target on modern VS wouldn't work out of the box?
How you manage to maintain compile and test pipelines at 0 cost? I just spent few days at work updating those build pipelines due to legacy dependencies so I would love to know how to avoid this in the future while maintaining infinite backwards compatibility and using new features.
Also I would like to know how to avoid being a "lazy company". I'm not sure how the person who decides can be lazy in that aspect, since they are not doing the work. You just ask a Dev to do everything that's needed so it complies, and you tell the QA team to check it, and they just do it, since they are paid to do it.
So I apologize for not understanding, and appreciate any explanation how a company can be lazy in that aspect. From what I've seen either it's profitable or not, you increase revenue or not. If an employee is lazy, they just get sent home.
It's truly the best and worst of the internet where everyone free to post everything they want, without any actual expertise or knowledge. I'm sure some of those know-it-all have no clue, probably just writing bash scripts and doing freelance IT or something but no actual involvement in production code nor work for a company that does software as a product.
Thanks in advance for any insight! Would love to learn from people who know the stuff.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
@micky1p00 You are surely right that any programmer would prefer to have target machines as uniform as possible. All variations mean added difficulty, therefore most likely additional cost. (I know what a coding disaster for the latest MOD was for example that some PS players had friends... - just joking here, I really get you)
However, I think @hotfrostworm is kinda right as well. They did not exactly shed away HW, and I surely doubt they rewrote the whole game from scratch - so they kinda do have to maintain backwards compatibility with their own code anyway.
My main point was then targeted at attracting new customers. (While I surely cannot say I have any idea if it would be cost effective, of course.)
Order received: 4/10/2022
Had to wait 315 days for that one, unfortunately. Haven't seriously played NW in a long time too, unfortunately. This might bring me back though.