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ZAX - Duration Testing

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  • justtester#3228 justtester Member Posts: 73 Arc User
    5k zen listing, 29 Apr -> 9 Feb.
    This forum is an echo chamber
  • aslan3775aslan3775 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 295 Arc User
    So, it's probably silly to argue about whether the new enchantment system is a "giant" sink or not. I guess the reason that I use that term is the new cost for "Max" enchants. If you wait for the sale to purchase the 15 GoPs to create a mythic enchantment from a rank 2 enchantment, it will cost 450,000 AD on sale (if my math is correct). That means, without counting any cost for coal motes (who came up with that name, anyway???), just for the 10 slots it would require 4,500,000 AD. Now add the combat and companion that you can purchase for rank 4, and you need 12 more GoPs, which is an additional 360,000 AD. For me, nearly 5 million AD is a pretty big deal.

    If you compare that cost to the previous method of obtaining rank 15 enchants (not weapon/armor), which realistically was done by using trade bars from VIP keys and lockboxes, that cost is a pretty serious increase. If you used the previous MOP system, well, then it might not have been much of an increase.

    Granted, none of this AD spending is really a "need". Characters were just fine without the additional 10,000-20,000 item level. You can certainly choose to stay with rank 2 for free if you have the currency--but I'm guessing that since you had rank 15 enchants before, you will most likely upgrade what you had for the next 'latest and greatest'.

    For the sake of this thread though, moving the AD/Zen backlog only 1million doesn't seem to be a "giant" step for mankind. B)
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,492 Arc User
    aslan3775 said:


    Granted, none of this AD spending is really a "need". Characters were just fine without the additional 10,000-20,000 item level. You can certainly choose to stay with rank 2 for free if you have the currency--but I'm guessing that since you had rank 15 enchants before, you will most likely upgrade what you had for the next 'latest and greatest'.

    You are OK without massively upgrading your enchants *this* mod - except maybe for the CoK trial that is rumored to requite 70k IL.

    However, it is likely that coming mods will have difficulty levels and IL requirements that will require you to move a bit up the new enchantment ladder to be ok.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,404 Arc User
    edited February 2022
    The full price of GoP is 50K AD each.
    With VIP, 37.5K AD each.
    With AD store sales, 42.5 AD each.
    With VIP + AD store sales, 30K AD each.
    Without VIP, one can buy GoP in AH with lower than full price.

    15 x 10 + 2 x 6 = 162 GoP

    GoP can be obtained free from Sybella. It cost 10 Heroes Medallion each.
    6 out of 7 of my main characters have 800 to 950 Heroes Medallion each.

    Since I only need to do that once for the whole account (instead of for each character), technically, it does not need to cost me any AD.
    However, I prefer to use the Heroes Medallion for Companion upgrade token.
    Hence, I most likely will wait for AD store sale (on top of VIP) in March.

    Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.

    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,492 Arc User


    Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.

    Don't forget that players are rotating through NW at a high rate. Only the few most persistent players will ever make a full set of r5's. So more AD needed to make enchantments should be a permanent AD sink since new players start making them all the time.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,404 Arc User
    edited February 2022


    Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.

    Don't forget that players are rotating through NW at a high rate. Only the few most persistent players will ever make a full set of r5's. So more AD needed to make enchantments should be a permanent AD sink since new players start making them all the time.
    New player would not be the heavy contributor to the back log. Unlike other AD sink that players keep on spending AD on regardless new or old players such as cubes, MoP (before mode 22). Those were not once and done.
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • handofhensonhandofhenson Member Posts: 13 Arc User
    listed
    28Apr21 10:11:03 GMT 5000 zen

    bought
    07Feb22 05:30:09 GMT 1582 zen
    07Feb22 05:27:29 GMT 463 zen
    07Feb22 05:27:07 GMT 537 zen
    07Feb22 05:20:17 GMT 2000 zen
    07Feb22 05:06:42 GMT 233 zen
    07Feb22 04:46:53 GMT 50 zen
    07Feb22 04:17:39 GMT 135 zen
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 448 Arc User
    @handofhenson

    7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".

  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,404 Arc User

    @handofhenson

    7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".

    He would have said "To see, difficult. The future, always in motion is".
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • @handofhenson

    7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".

    They're saying it the other way around. They put up a listing on 28Apr21 and "bought" is when it came through.
  • theelusiveone#4954 theelusiveone Member Posts: 177 Arc User
    Listing of 4997 on May 1st 2021, came through Feb 10th 2022. Two days ahead of forecast.
    Kevfire
    Guild Leader
    Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 448 Arc User
    edited February 2022

    Listing of 4997 on May 1st 2021, came through Feb 10th 2022. Two days ahead of forecast.

    Updated :+1: , looks like we are on page 2 now.

    Heads up everyone, Blargskull is back in town. Looks like Friday the 13th fell on a Sunday. Maybe he will be busy watching the Superbowl?

    BTW I took another sample and lowered the increase ratio from +0.9 to +0.8 this means growth has dropped 2.4 hours per day and is actually getting closer to the basic increase it was at almost 6 months ago.
    Post edited by hotfrostworm on
  • darthpotaterdarthpotater Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,261 Arc User
    May 5 2021 --> 16 Feb 2022 (10AM)
    Lescar PvE Wizard - Sir Garlic PvE Paladin
    Caturday Survivor
    Elemental Evil Survivor
    Undermontain Survivor
    Mod20 Combat rework Survivor
    Mod22 Refinement rework Survivor
  • utookmynickutookmynick Member Posts: 206 Arc User
    edited February 2022
    aslan3775 said:

    For me, nearly 5 million AD is a pretty big deal.

    That used to be a lot. Now it can't even buy you one legendary collar. A single mythic enlightened skill insig costs 4m+ on AH when choice pack isn't on zen store.

    Also, I think it is a matter of perspective. Relative to the other upgrade costs: coal motes needed, mythic insignias, collars, certain companions, etc., the glyphs costs are small (AD sinks don't make them money). This is even more so for people playing multiple chars. Sure, insignias and collars are not bound, but it is a big hassle to move them around, so it is going to 15 insignias and 5 collars for each char.

    Short term, there is bump in AD destruction because everyone needs to do these upgrades (new ranks essentially), but long term, AD spend on enchantments will decrease relative to the past (ie. remember 15 MoP6 for R14 weap/armor?).
    Post edited by utookmynick on
  • aslan3775aslan3775 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 295 Arc User
    May 7, 2021 ---> Feb 17, 2022
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,492 Arc User
    edited February 2022
    Another way to do estimates:
    Assume there is a constant number of Zen being processed per day. Currently that number seems to be around 0.24 M/day.

    With that assumption we get a max of 292 days wait for orders posted around June 15th 2021. After that the wait time should go down as queue is getting shorter.

    It would be interesting to see queue length divided by wait days plotted in the graph actually, to see how constant the Zen per day number is.
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 417 Arc User
    edited February 2022

    It would be interesting to see queue length divided by wait days plotted in the graph actually, to see how constant the Zen per day number is.

    Why not ^^. Good point
    image
    Seems to flatten, so maybe it's tending to a constant (a limit toward the infiny ? it's too late today for me to try to calculate that xD).
  • krysoprase#0717 krysoprase Member Posts: 11 Arc User
    Current order status.

    3000 zen 08 May 2021 Collected 19th Feb AEDST around 3pm
    5000 zen 09 June 2021
    5000 zen 23 September 2021
    5000 zen 20 November 2021
    5000 zen 30 January 2022
    5000 zen 19 February 2022
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 514 Arc User
    Personally I like my node graph better, it makes the whole prospect of understanding the ZAX market less of a headache.



    Over time, as you study this graph, attempting to comprehend it, the mental stress causes severe migraines. Eventually, you will desire to return to the ignorance of just knowing your AD will be swimming around in the virtual pool, until the future date of whenever, reaches a climatic change.

    Just killing time...
  • putzboy78putzboy78 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,950 Arc User
    May 9th order received today
  • aslan3775aslan3775 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 295 Arc User

    Personally I like my node graph better, it makes the whole prospect of understanding the ZAX market less of a headache.



    Over time, as you study this graph, attempting to comprehend it, the mental stress causes severe migraines. Eventually, you will desire to return to the ignorance of just knowing your AD will be swimming around in the virtual pool, until the future date of whenever, reaches a climatic change.
    I believe you forgot to mention that the graph is best viewed in 1080P. I wasn't able to achieve a fully severe migraine until I changed my computer settings to compensate for my lack of monitor capability. :wink:
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 514 Arc User
    aslan3775 said:


    I believe you forgot to mention that the graph is best viewed in 1080P. I wasn't able to achieve a fully severe migraine until I changed my computer settings to compensate for my lack of monitor capability. :wink:

    1080p ??? What? You don't have 4K to view it? How dare you sir! :trollface: Also you should use dollar store reading glasses +4.50 magnification with the Red/Blue 3D glasses to offset those pixels. Stare at it for hours, if you start to suffer retinal damage, don't worry... it is all part of the process.

    Seriously I want to thank the two people @hotfrostworm and @tchefi#6735 that took my joke of a thread and turned it into a year long project. :smiley: Good job.

    Just killing time...
  • stefire#9202 stefire Member Posts: 11 Arc User
    11th May 2021 -> 24th Feb 2022
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 448 Arc User

    11th May 2021 -> 24th Feb 2022

    This appears to be right on time, no adjustments needed.
  • justtester#3228 justtester Member Posts: 73 Arc User
    edited February 2022
    5k zen listing 5/13/2021 9:00 AM -> 9:42-10:02 PM 2/26/2022.

    I also made another 5k listing during that day, 7:23 PM, let's see when it will arrive.
    Edit: got it today, 2/27/2022 5:30PM.
    Post edited by justtester#3228 on
    This forum is an echo chamber
  • gildriadorgildriador Member Posts: 231 Arc User
    My 13 may 2021 5000 zen order was received yesterday 27 February 2022.
    “He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.”
    ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 448 Arc User
  • rubytruerubytrue Member Posts: 582 Arc User

    My 13 may 2021 5000 zen order was received yesterday 27 February 2022.

    My May 14, 2021 order still hasn't begun fulfilling yet...hopefully, soon....
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