So, it's probably silly to argue about whether the new enchantment system is a "giant" sink or not. I guess the reason that I use that term is the new cost for "Max" enchants. If you wait for the sale to purchase the 15 GoPs to create a mythic enchantment from a rank 2 enchantment, it will cost 450,000 AD on sale (if my math is correct). That means, without counting any cost for coal motes (who came up with that name, anyway???), just for the 10 slots it would require 4,500,000 AD. Now add the combat and companion that you can purchase for rank 4, and you need 12 more GoPs, which is an additional 360,000 AD. For me, nearly 5 million AD is a pretty big deal.
If you compare that cost to the previous method of obtaining rank 15 enchants (not weapon/armor), which realistically was done by using trade bars from VIP keys and lockboxes, that cost is a pretty serious increase. If you used the previous MOP system, well, then it might not have been much of an increase.
Granted, none of this AD spending is really a "need". Characters were just fine without the additional 10,000-20,000 item level. You can certainly choose to stay with rank 2 for free if you have the currency--but I'm guessing that since you had rank 15 enchants before, you will most likely upgrade what you had for the next 'latest and greatest'.
For the sake of this thread though, moving the AD/Zen backlog only 1million doesn't seem to be a "giant" step for mankind.
Granted, none of this AD spending is really a "need". Characters were just fine without the additional 10,000-20,000 item level. You can certainly choose to stay with rank 2 for free if you have the currency--but I'm guessing that since you had rank 15 enchants before, you will most likely upgrade what you had for the next 'latest and greatest'.
You are OK without massively upgrading your enchants *this* mod - except maybe for the CoK trial that is rumored to requite 70k IL.
However, it is likely that coming mods will have difficulty levels and IL requirements that will require you to move a bit up the new enchantment ladder to be ok.
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
edited February 2022
The full price of GoP is 50K AD each. With VIP, 37.5K AD each. With AD store sales, 42.5 AD each. With VIP + AD store sales, 30K AD each. Without VIP, one can buy GoP in AH with lower than full price.
15 x 10 + 2 x 6 = 162 GoP
GoP can be obtained free from Sybella. It cost 10 Heroes Medallion each. 6 out of 7 of my main characters have 800 to 950 Heroes Medallion each.
Since I only need to do that once for the whole account (instead of for each character), technically, it does not need to cost me any AD. However, I prefer to use the Heroes Medallion for Companion upgrade token. Hence, I most likely will wait for AD store sale (on top of VIP) in March.
Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.
Don't forget that players are rotating through NW at a high rate. Only the few most persistent players will ever make a full set of r5's. So more AD needed to make enchantments should be a permanent AD sink since new players start making them all the time.
1
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.
Don't forget that players are rotating through NW at a high rate. Only the few most persistent players will ever make a full set of r5's. So more AD needed to make enchantments should be a permanent AD sink since new players start making them all the time.
New player would not be the heavy contributor to the back log. Unlike other AD sink that players keep on spending AD on regardless new or old players such as cubes, MoP (before mode 22). Those were not once and done.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".
7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".
He would have said "To see, difficult. The future, always in motion is".
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".
They're saying it the other way around. They put up a listing on 28Apr21 and "bought" is when it came through.
Listing of 4997 on May 1st 2021, came through Feb 10th 2022. Two days ahead of forecast.
Updated , looks like we are on page 2 now.
Heads up everyone, Blargskull is back in town. Looks like Friday the 13th fell on a Sunday. Maybe he will be busy watching the Superbowl?
BTW I took another sample and lowered the increase ratio from +0.9 to +0.8 this means growth has dropped 2.4 hours per day and is actually getting closer to the basic increase it was at almost 6 months ago.
@tchefi#6735 and I are having to guess and estimate, based on the little information we can obtain from the players here.
And we do that a bit differently ^^. If we take an analogy (it's close enough ^^) : "how to find the future position of a solid moving in a 1dimension space+time" @hotfrostworm your version is based on an uniformly rectilinear motion, so a constant "velocity" to predict the traveled distance (linear function). My version is based on an uniformly accelerated movement, so a constant "acceleration" (quadratic function). I admit it was a fun "back 25years ago when I was 16yo" playing with some basic kinematic equations.
BTW I took another sample and lowered the increase ratio from +0.9 to +0.8 this means growth has dropped 2.4 hours per day and is actually getting closer to the basic increase it was at almost 6 months ago.
Currently, in my version, the "velocity" at the last data point is 0.823w/day with an acceleration around -0.0012w/day² in the current trend (i put the start of this trend on an order made 13th march 2021). The velocity currently decreases over time (it's very obvious from the graph) => the waiting time grows slower and slower, will halt and eventually start decreasing if nothing in the game happens and causes a new singularity. The acceleration also seems to decrease (already negative, but keep going lower), so maybe i will switch to a cubic function (make the acceleration variable, like k=da/dt)
That used to be a lot. Now it can't even buy you one legendary collar. A single mythic enlightened skill insig costs 4m+ on AH when choice pack isn't on zen store.
Also, I think it is a matter of perspective. Relative to the other upgrade costs: coal motes needed, mythic insignias, collars, certain companions, etc., the glyphs costs are small (AD sinks don't make them money). This is even more so for people playing multiple chars. Sure, insignias and collars are not bound, but it is a big hassle to move them around, so it is going to 15 insignias and 5 collars for each char.
Short term, there is bump in AD destruction because everyone needs to do these upgrades (new ranks essentially), but long term, AD spend on enchantments will decrease relative to the past (ie. remember 15 MoP6 for R14 weap/armor?).
Another way to do estimates: Assume there is a constant number of Zen being processed per day. Currently that number seems to be around 0.24 M/day.
With that assumption we get a max of 292 days wait for orders posted around June 15th 2021. After that the wait time should go down as queue is getting shorter.
It would be interesting to see queue length divided by wait days plotted in the graph actually, to see how constant the Zen per day number is.
It would be interesting to see queue length divided by wait days plotted in the graph actually, to see how constant the Zen per day number is.
Why not ^^. Good point Seems to flatten, so maybe it's tending to a constant (a limit toward the infiny ? it's too late today for me to try to calculate that xD).
3000 zen 08 May 2021 Collected 19th Feb AEDST around 3pm 5000 zen 09 June 2021 5000 zen 23 September 2021 5000 zen 20 November 2021 5000 zen 30 January 2022 5000 zen 19 February 2022
Personally I like my node graph better, it makes the whole prospect of understanding the ZAX market less of a headache.
Over time, as you study this graph, attempting to comprehend it, the mental stress causes severe migraines. Eventually, you will desire to return to the ignorance of just knowing your AD will be swimming around in the virtual pool, until the future date of whenever, reaches a climatic change.
Just killing time...
2
putzboy78Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,950Arc User
Personally I like my node graph better, it makes the whole prospect of understanding the ZAX market less of a headache.
Over time, as you study this graph, attempting to comprehend it, the mental stress causes severe migraines. Eventually, you will desire to return to the ignorance of just knowing your AD will be swimming around in the virtual pool, until the future date of whenever, reaches a climatic change.
I believe you forgot to mention that the graph is best viewed in 1080P. I wasn't able to achieve a fully severe migraine until I changed my computer settings to compensate for my lack of monitor capability.
I believe you forgot to mention that the graph is best viewed in 1080P. I wasn't able to achieve a fully severe migraine until I changed my computer settings to compensate for my lack of monitor capability.
1080p ??? What? You don't have 4K to view it? How dare you sir! Also you should use dollar store reading glasses +4.50 magnification with the Red/Blue 3D glasses to offset those pixels. Stare at it for hours, if you start to suffer retinal damage, don't worry... it is all part of the process.
Seriously I want to thank the two people @hotfrostworm and @tchefi#6735 that took my joke of a thread and turned it into a year long project. Good job.
Seriously I want to thank the two people @hotfrostworm and @tchefi#6735 that took my joke of a thread and turned it into a year long project. Good job.
Honestly, i'm also here for fun :P. Lously "working" to appear (deceptively) as dead serious as I can about something I think is... quite frivolous ^^.
What i truly love is this is kind of a collective thing. It's not only @hotfrostworm or me who turned your initative into a year long project, but all the people who jumped in and gave their order/delivery dates to be gathered as data to be analyzed, and without all of them, there would have not been any prediction, nor any funky graphs. In a sense, the Zax - duration testing thread is sort of a massively multiplayer game on its own :P.
My 13 may 2021 5000 zen order was received yesterday 27 February 2022.
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
Comments
If you compare that cost to the previous method of obtaining rank 15 enchants (not weapon/armor), which realistically was done by using trade bars from VIP keys and lockboxes, that cost is a pretty serious increase. If you used the previous MOP system, well, then it might not have been much of an increase.
Granted, none of this AD spending is really a "need". Characters were just fine without the additional 10,000-20,000 item level. You can certainly choose to stay with rank 2 for free if you have the currency--but I'm guessing that since you had rank 15 enchants before, you will most likely upgrade what you had for the next 'latest and greatest'.
For the sake of this thread though, moving the AD/Zen backlog only 1million doesn't seem to be a "giant" step for mankind.
However, it is likely that coming mods will have difficulty levels and IL requirements that will require you to move a bit up the new enchantment ladder to be ok.
With VIP, 37.5K AD each.
With AD store sales, 42.5 AD each.
With VIP + AD store sales, 30K AD each.
Without VIP, one can buy GoP in AH with lower than full price.
15 x 10 + 2 x 6 = 162 GoP
GoP can be obtained free from Sybella. It cost 10 Heroes Medallion each.
6 out of 7 of my main characters have 800 to 950 Heroes Medallion each.
Since I only need to do that once for the whole account (instead of for each character), technically, it does not need to cost me any AD.
However, I prefer to use the Heroes Medallion for Companion upgrade token.
Hence, I most likely will wait for AD store sale (on top of VIP) in March.
Even if other players may need to spend AD to buy GoP, it is more or less one time deal. This AD sink is not exactly sustainable for long term. So, at best, it may give the exchange backlog a short term dip.
28Apr21 10:11:03 GMT 5000 zen
bought
07Feb22 05:30:09 GMT 1582 zen
07Feb22 05:27:29 GMT 463 zen
07Feb22 05:27:07 GMT 537 zen
07Feb22 05:20:17 GMT 2000 zen
07Feb22 05:06:42 GMT 233 zen
07Feb22 04:46:53 GMT 50 zen
07Feb22 04:17:39 GMT 135 zen
7 Feb 22 is currently estimated to arrive 30 Aug 23, but that could change. As the wise Yoda once told me back in his swamp, "Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.".
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
Heads up everyone, Blargskull is back in town. Looks like Friday the 13th fell on a Sunday. Maybe he will be busy watching the Superbowl?
BTW I took another sample and lowered the increase ratio from +0.9 to +0.8 this means growth has dropped 2.4 hours per day and is actually getting closer to the basic increase it was at almost 6 months ago.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Caturday Survivor
Elemental Evil Survivor
Undermontain Survivor
Mod20 Combat rework Survivor
Mod22 Refinement rework Survivor
If we take an analogy (it's close enough ^^) : "how to find the future position of a solid moving in a 1dimension space+time"
@hotfrostworm your version is based on an uniformly rectilinear motion, so a constant "velocity" to predict the traveled distance (linear function).
My version is based on an uniformly accelerated movement, so a constant "acceleration" (quadratic function).
I admit it was a fun "back 25years ago when I was 16yo" playing with some basic kinematic equations. Currently, in my version, the "velocity" at the last data point is 0.823w/day with an acceleration around -0.0012w/day² in the current trend (i put the start of this trend on an order made 13th march 2021).
The velocity currently decreases over time (it's very obvious from the graph) => the waiting time grows slower and slower, will halt and eventually start decreasing if nothing in the game happens and causes a new singularity.
The acceleration also seems to decrease (already negative, but keep going lower), so maybe i will switch to a cubic function (make the acceleration variable, like k=da/dt)
Also, I think it is a matter of perspective. Relative to the other upgrade costs: coal motes needed, mythic insignias, collars, certain companions, etc., the glyphs costs are small (AD sinks don't make them money). This is even more so for people playing multiple chars. Sure, insignias and collars are not bound, but it is a big hassle to move them around, so it is going to 15 insignias and 5 collars for each char.
Short term, there is bump in AD destruction because everyone needs to do these upgrades (new ranks essentially), but long term, AD spend on enchantments will decrease relative to the past (ie. remember 15 MoP6 for R14 weap/armor?).
Assume there is a constant number of Zen being processed per day. Currently that number seems to be around 0.24 M/day.
With that assumption we get a max of 292 days wait for orders posted around June 15th 2021. After that the wait time should go down as queue is getting shorter.
It would be interesting to see queue length divided by wait days plotted in the graph actually, to see how constant the Zen per day number is.
Seems to flatten, so maybe it's tending to a constant (a limit toward the infiny ? it's too late today for me to try to calculate that xD).
3000 zen 08 May 2021 Collected 19th Feb AEDST around 3pm
5000 zen 09 June 2021
5000 zen 23 September 2021
5000 zen 20 November 2021
5000 zen 30 January 2022
5000 zen 19 February 2022
Over time, as you study this graph, attempting to comprehend it, the mental stress causes severe migraines. Eventually, you will desire to return to the ignorance of just knowing your AD will be swimming around in the virtual pool, until the future date of whenever, reaches a climatic change.
Just killing time...
Seriously I want to thank the two people @hotfrostworm and @tchefi#6735 that took my joke of a thread and turned it into a year long project.
Just killing time...
What i truly love is this is kind of a collective thing. It's not only @hotfrostworm or me who turned your initative into a year long project, but all the people who jumped in and gave their order/delivery dates to be gathered as data to be analyzed, and without all of them, there would have not been any prediction, nor any funky graphs. In a sense, the Zax - duration testing thread is sort of a massively multiplayer game on its own
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I also made another 5k listing during that day, 7:23 PM, let's see when it will arrive.
Edit: got it today, 2/27/2022 5:30PM.
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet