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Absurd Dilithium Exchange Prices.

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  • captainoblivouscaptainoblivous Member Posts: 2,284 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Adding a new dil sink will increase demand for dil and decrease the supply of dil on the dilex.

    This will lead to a lower dilex, just exactly like it really did in the past.

    I don't know where you studied economics, but higher demand and/or lower supply = higher prices not lower.
    I need a beer.

  • seriousxenoseriousxeno Member Posts: 473 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    But was it Zen at that point? -- at some point it was converted to Zen. The monetary unit we has was exchanged at a rate of 1.25, but I dont remember which way. Maybe that was later on.

    That was season 5. The highest I remember then was 450 dil per CP. Season 6 fleet starbases hit and it plummeted. The point im making is, whether its CP or Zen, the exchange used to be much less grind-friendly than it is now.
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  • jorantomalakjorantomalak Member Posts: 7,133 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    I wanted to exchange some dil that i been saving went and checked the prices and almost needed a change of drawers cause those prices almost made me TRIBBLE my pants.

    Way to inflated right now not even worth it imo
  • captainoblivouscaptainoblivous Member Posts: 2,284 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Yeah. Somewhere good.

    What currency is dil priced in on the dilex?

    I'll tell you about it.

    It is priced in zen.

    So, if dil has a higher price in zen, then each dil will be worth more zen, and each zen will be worth less dil.

    For example, if one dil is worth 1/200 zen now, (1z/200dil), and in future, when higher demand and lower supply has raised the price of dil, it becomes worth 1/100z (1z/100dil), then the price of dil will have gone up, with 1z only buying 100 dil instead of 200.

    Your mistake was taking the supply and demand for dil and thinking it directly affected the price of zen instead of the price of dil.

    The dilex rate isn't the price of dil, it is the price of zen. It is the inverse of the price of dil.

    So, if the price of dil goes up, the price of zen goes down. And since the dilex is the price of zen, the dilex goes down.

    Told ya it was somewhere good :D

    Doh! Good point.
    No, my mistake was forgetting that it isn't just a straight dil price, it's a dil/zen price. Two sides of a coin as it were.

    So where is "somewhere good"? :P
    I need a beer.

  • fraghul2000fraghul2000 Member Posts: 1,590 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Clearly you weren't around when it was 400+ in Season 6...

    It was only that high right after the initial conversion from C-Points to Zen in June '12, when they set the starting price at the max and it rapidly went down in the next week, until balancing out around the 100 Zen mark, rising and dropping a bit, but never moving above 150 Dil/Zen.
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  • talonxvtalonxv Member Posts: 4,257 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    starswordc wrote: »
    Except as I explained here...

    ... it isn't actually completely player-run and -driven. If the dil/zen exchange is the US economy, Cryptic is kinda like the Federal Reserve (except the Fed doesn't set the prices of goods).

    More like cryptic is the stock market exchange. They simply sit there and look pretty while players drive prices up and down.
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  • lordsteve1lordsteve1 Member Posts: 3,492 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    It really is just a simple supply & demand thing going on.

    We've had month after month of dilithium being poured into the game through event after event after event so the market is flooded with the stuff. Plus most existing players are running out of things to upgrade so the R&D usage of dilithium is dropping.
    Then you've had a lot of shiny new toys released to the C-Store (Command ships, iconic ships etc).

    Basically there's too many people trying to buy too little zen so the demand for zen has come up and up and up.
    If they stopped releasing ships for the rest of the year or introduced a dilithium sink in-game like a fleet holding that would suck the dilithium out of the market.

    Simple really: Too much dilithium = price of Zen rises.
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  • lored2deathlored2death Member Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    I don't know where you studied economics, but higher demand and/or lower supply = higher prices not lower.


    Yeah. Some people seem to be incapable of understanding supply-side economics. The best way for dilex prices to drop (meaning less Zen for cash but more Zen per refined dil) is to lower the costs of the dil sinks which Cryptic is clearly unwilling to do. The addition of dil through different means might have stemmed the higher costs (per refined dil) had so many players not moved on to other games.

    The bottom line here is the exchange rate for Zen from refinined dil is going to continue to rise and new ships/fleet sinks will only exacerbate the issue at this point. Again, this is actually a boon for paying players, ones who buy Zen and convert to dil. It's going to make it increasingly difficult for those who are not paying and simply refining dil to get Zen. I'm not actually opposed to that happening at all as I can get a nice amount of dil from Zen for 10-20 dollars should I ever decide to spend money on the game again.

    I see a lot of talk about when the game went f2p and dil was introduced around 360+. The *reason* for those costs was there was so little in-game dil when the exchange went up and it took time to balance out and for players to start accumulating enough dil to drive the prices down. If there was too much dil in the game, the costs per Zen would be going down, not up and the return rate on buying Zen with cash wouldn't be worth doing.

    Simply put, there is either not enough players refining dil as there were or the sinks have outweighed the ability to get enough dil refined to cover it all for the majority of players, hence the sensation of scarcity of the resource and a worsening exchange rate from converting dil gotten by playing for free. It's likely some combination of aspects.

    My personal perception is that they have fewer players now (name the reason) and there are far too many high-priced sinks. For now, it's not horrible but I'll wait and see if the dilex continues to rise. In the meantime, Cryptic has designed their sinks and game-gotten dil in a way that will "encourage" people to just outright buy Zen and excahgne for dil, which makes them cash. However, there comes a point where it becomes a runaway train if they can't expand the playerbase beyond what it currently is.
  • lored2deathlored2death Member Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Adding a new dil sink will increase demand for dil and decrease the supply of dil on the dilex.

    This will lead to a lower dilex, just exactly like it really did in the past.

    This is such a completely flawed perception of how the dil exchange works it's hard to know how to counter your point. The "demand" for dil is created by sinks as you've said but the *supply* of said dil is determined by how many players are actually refining it, i.e. playing STO. I'm sorry to say that a lower dilex in the past had far more to do with how many people were playing than the introduction of any sinks.

    It's a balancing act that relies on several factors and one of the factors is a complete unknow to the players and that is the number of people playing/refining dil. If they went from 100k players to 50k (just as an example) and added all sorts of sinks, the price of Zen would rise exponentially and players who weren't putting cash into the game would find it increasingly difficult to meet the requirements of the new sinks without dropping cash.

    With all that I've posted on this thread, let me be clear of one thing. Cryptic isn't horsing around with the actual exchange rates. What they *are* doing is manipulating the market through sinks vs. availability of free dilithium, which is their right and their obligation to do. They control the market but not the rate of exchange. *Through* creating that market, they can certainly influence the exchange rates but it ultimately depends on how many people play and refine dil for whatever sinks they deem worthy. The static refinement rate allows them to have a measure of the changes they make in the game and is why it will likely never, ever be increased.

    TL;DR

    Sinks are only a part of the equation to exchange rates. How many people are playing/refining has a far, far greater impact when it's all said and done.
  • thetaninethetanine Member Posts: 1,367 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    But, but, but...Walmart had a buy 1 get 10 Tinfoil Hats for Free special running. What do I do with all my Tinfoil Hats?

    You know...thinking about it, lol, that would be an interesting Event Reward - a Tinfoil Hat. :D

    Oh for the la la la's!

    Tinfoil hats actually amplify mind-control beams

    http://boingboing.net/2012/10/01/tinfoil-hats-actually-amplify.html

    A group of MIT students decided to test the performance of different tinfoil beanies to see how various designs (the "classical," "fez" and "centurion") interacted with commonly used industrial radio applications. They found that all three designs actually amplified these mind control rays radio waves, suggesting that the tinfoil hat meme might be a false-flag operation engineered to trick the wily and suspicious into making it easier to beam messages into their skulls.
    STAR TREK
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  • scififan78scififan78 Member Posts: 1,383 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Another thing that could be having a minor influence on the current price is the Omega Tech upgrades many people farmed for last month. That has further reduced that need for Dil for upgrades. Most of it though is as others have said, ships that many people have wanted are here and they are scrambling to get them.

    As for Neverwinter's economy, it was ruined long ago by an exploit that pumped ungodly amounts of AD into their system. The exploit was corrected but the damage was done. Then on top of that, they decided to make their lock box keys BoP. That further drove up the need for people to use the exchange to get zen as they could no longer buy them from the auction house.
  • millimidgetmillimidget Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    deokkent wrote: »
    I know, some have claimed current dil sinks are small (a statement I don't believe for a second).
    They're effectively small, for a variety of reasons.

    Not the least of which is that anyone interested in engaging in them has already done so.
    "Tolerance and apathy are the last virtues of a dying society." - Aristotle
  • lored2deathlored2death Member Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    you mean everone whining about upgrade costs were over-reacting? on this forum? naaaawww

    no way that could happen :D

    This is a comical statement, both for it's inaccuracy as well as for a lack of comprehension of the dil market. If you don't think upgrade costs were over the top before, wait until it takes 300+ dil to get 1 Zen. Try getting enough Zen for just playing the game to make any purchase in a reasonable timeframe.

    I'm no market analyst but I'm pretty sure the exchange rate is headed in one direction for the time being due to a combination of fewer players and too many high-cost dil sinks.

    There is a bright side however...for players who actually put money into the game. I get a far greater return on converting Zen when it's at 230 than I would at 160.

    The ironic thing is it was said that Cryptic sees free players in the same light as paying ones when it comes to input. As the exchange rate climbs, we'll see how long that statement holds true.
  • millimidgetmillimidget Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Cryptic isn't horsing around with the actual exchange rates. What they *are* doing is manipulating the market through sinks vs. availability of free dilithium, which is their right and their obligation to do.
    Seems like they're targeting any lingering dil reserves. Could be a new fleet holding incoming. Could also be that their metrics reveal formerly paying customers have started adopting F2P habits.

    Or maybe we're getting dil cannons.
    "Tolerance and apathy are the last virtues of a dying society." - Aristotle
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    This is a comical statement, both for it's inaccuracy as well as for a lack of comprehension of the dil market. If you don't think upgrade costs were over the top before, wait until it takes 300+ dil to get 1 Zen. Try getting enough Zen for just playing the game to make any purchase in a reasonable timeframe.

    I'm no market analyst but I'm pretty sure the exchange rate is headed in one direction for the time being due to a combination of fewer players and too many high-cost dil sinks.

    There is a bright side however...for players who actually put money into the game. I get a far greater return on converting Zen when it's at 230 than I would at 160.

    The ironic thing is it was said that Cryptic sees free players in the same light as paying ones when it comes to input. As the exchange rate climbs, we'll see how long that statement holds true.
    Weird. I thought that if people were after Dilithium, they would by a larger price for it, thus with Zen, you could only buy a small amount of Dilthium.

    But since you can actually get a lot of Dilithium per Zen, it suggests that people really want the Zen, so they can buy C-Store stuff.


    Could be that people are not actually upgrading their gear, and rather acquire new ships, master keys or promo boxes, but it doesn't seem to me as if it's Dilithium that people really need.
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  • thecosmic1thecosmic1 Member Posts: 9,365 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Weird. I thought that if people were after Dilithium, they would by a larger price for it, thus with Zen, you could only buy a small amount of Dilthium.

    But since you can actually get a lot of Dilithium per Zen, it suggests that people really want the Zen, so they can buy C-Store stuff.


    Could be that people are not actually upgrading their gear, and rather acquire new ships, master keys or promo boxes, but it doesn't seem to me as if it's Dilithium that people really need.
    You have it correct. When there is no Demand, or there is too much Supply, the exchange rate goes up. There are 4 Factors in play:

    1, Low Supply: If no one grinds Dilithium there is minimal Dilithium to buy and the Supply is low. As such buyers who need Dilthium are willing to pay more Zen for it. So you have someone willing to spend 5 Zen to get 400 Dilithium: 80 to 1.

    2, High Supply: If many grind Dilithium, or there are many Events granting large amounts of Dilithium, there is a lot in the system. As such the Supply is high. Because there is so much available to buy the Zen seller gets to pick-and-choose and can spend 2 Zen to get 400 Dilithium: 200 to 1.

    3, High Demand: If the need for Dilithium goes up then the power rests with the Dilthium Seller and he can demand a low price: 80 Dilithium for 1 Zen. For Demand to go high there needs to be lots of Sinks which people need to spend Dilthium on.

    4, Low Demand: If the need for Dilithum goes down then the power rest with the Zen Seller. If there is nothing you need to spend Dilthium on there is no Demand for it. No sinks, no demand.

    For the system to work there needs to be as much Demand as there is Supply. If there is too much Supply or too little Demand the price goes up: 200 to 1. If there is little Supply or great Demand the price goes down: 80 to 1.

    Right now the game exists in a period of high Supply and lower Demand. The game is piling Event after Event after Event. 50,000 Dilithium for CE. 100,000 for Delta Recruit, etc. And on the other end you have most people with completed Fleets - that noobs can join and have to contribute no Dilithium to because the Fleet is already T5. Most people have completed their Reps, thus there is no huge Demand for Rep gear, etc. The only sink is Crafting and most, non-PvPers, are not in a mad rush to get Mk XIV Epic. You can take time to get your Crafting Ranks up and get free Mats, etc. There is no reason to spend a lot of Dilithium on the 'get it now' button.

    For the system to stabilize there needs to be less Supply, IE less Events giving big rewards, and more Demand; and to create Diltihium Demand there needs to be more new things to spend it on because much of the player-base already owns all the older things.
    STO is about my Liberated Borg Federation Captain with his Breen 1st Officer, Jem'Hadar Tactical Officer, Liberated Borg Engineering Officer, Android Ops Officer, Photonic Science Officer, Gorn Science Officer, and Reman Medical Officer jumping into their Jem'Hadar Carrier and flying off to do missions for the new Romulan Empire. But for some players allowing a T5 Connie to be used breaks the canon in the game.
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  • jaguarskxjaguarskx Member Posts: 5,945 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Looking at the time on my watch the dilithium to Zen exchange rate should start to decrease in about 2 hours since that is all the time that is left for the ship, services, and species sale. When the sale is over the demand for Zen should start to decrease.
  • lored2deathlored2death Member Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    thecosmic1 wrote: »
    You have it correct. When there is no Demand, or there is too much Supply, the exchange rate goes up. There are 4 Factors in play:

    1, Low Supply: If no one grinds Dilithium there is minimal Dilithium to buy and the Supply is low. As such buyers who need Dilthium are willing to pay more Zen for it. So you have someone willing to spend 5 Zen to get 400 Dilithium: 80 to 1.

    2, High Supply: If many grind Dilithium, or there are many Events granting large amounts of Dilithium, there is a lot in the system. As such the Supply is high. Because there is so much available to buy the Zen seller gets to pick-and-choose and can spend 2 Zen to get 400 Dilithium: 200 to 1.

    3, High Demand: If the need for Dilithium goes up then the power rests with the Dilthium Seller and he can demand a low price: 80 Dilithium for 1 Zen. For Demand to go high there needs to be lots of Sinks which people need to spend Dilthium on.

    4, Low Demand: If the need for Dilithum goes down then the power rest with the Zen Seller. If there is nothing you need to spend Dilthium on there is no Demand for it. No sinks, no demand.

    For the system to work there needs to be as much Demand as there is Supply. If there is too much Supply or too little Demand the price goes up: 200 to 1. If there is little Supply or great Demand the price goes down: 80 to 1.

    Right now the game exists in a period of high Supply and lower Demand. The game is piling Event after Event after Event. 50,000 Dilithium for CE. 100,000 for Delta Recruit, etc. And on the other end you have most people with completed Fleets - that noobs can join and have to contribute no Dilithium to because the Fleet is already T5. Most people have completed their Reps, thus there is no huge Demand for Rep gear, etc. The only sink is Crafting and most, non-PvPers, are not in a mad rush to get Mk XIV Epic. You can take time to get your Crafting Ranks up and get free Mats, etc. There is no reason to spend a lot of Dilithium on the 'get it now' button.

    For the system to stabilize there needs to be less Supply, IE less Events giving big rewards, and more Demand; and to create Diltihium Demand there needs to be more new things to spend it on because much of the player-base already owns all the older things.

    Except that in this scenario, you have this completely backwards with how the Zen exchange is actually functioning with regards to STO.
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