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Forums > Home› Star Trek Online General Discussion

Lock box ship Black List???

locutuspicard359locutuspicard359 Member Posts: 27 Arc User
edited December 2014 in Star Trek Online General Discussion
Is there a possibility tath Cryptic may have done a lock box black list? for instance if you don't speak incredibly well of them on the forum they put you on tath list and you may never win a lock box ship?

Because i have opened a LOT and seriously i mean A LOT of lock box and i never won any of the ships... honestly i must have opened over a thousand of those box over the years and i never won a single lock box ship....

Tell me wath you think about my theory? is it something possible or is the percentage of chance to win a lock box ship too small?

(Please pardon me if my english is bad... it is not my native language)

Respectfully

Locutuspicard359
Post edited by locutuspicard359 on

Comments

  • qjuniorqjunior Member Posts: 2,023 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Why would they care what you say about the ships as long as you're paying to get them ? Random generator is random you know. ;)
  • daveynydaveyny Member Posts: 8,227 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    locutuspicard359 wrote: »
    Is there a possibility tath Cryptic may have done a lock box black list? for instance if you don't speak incredibly well of them on the forum they put you on tath list and you may never win a lock box ship?

    Because i have opened a LOT and seriously i mean A LOT of lock box and i never won any of the ships... honestly i must have opened over a thousand of those box over the years and i never won a single lock box ship....

    Tell me wath you think about my theory? is it something possible or is the percentage of chance to win a lock box ship too small?

    (Please pardon me if my english is bad... it is not my native language)

    Respectfully

    Locutuspicard359

    Paranoia runs deep in this youngling...

    Oh sorry, wrong IP.

    :cool:
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  • locutuspicard359locutuspicard359 Member Posts: 27 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    i meant speaking bad about cryptic not about the lock box ship like if you speak bad about cryptic on the forum and they would put you on a black lock box ship...

    i may just be not lucky at all too.. lol
  • neoakiraiineoakiraii Member Posts: 7,468 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Say something nice then open a thousand more :D


    Or lay off the Kool aid
    GwaoHAD.png
  • shevetshevet Member Posts: 1,667 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Quick back-of-envelope calculations tell me the chance of opening 1000 lockboxes and not getting a single ship... is still higher than the chance of opening one lockbox and getting a ship.

    (Not by very much, though. If you've really opened a thousand of them without success, you have been unlucky. But that's all it is. Luck. Not a blacklist.)
    8b6YIel.png?1
  • locutuspicard359locutuspicard359 Member Posts: 27 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    yeah i was thinking about tath lol

    ill let you know after the next thousand

    ;)
  • locutuspicard359locutuspicard359 Member Posts: 27 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    yeah but like i said i have opened like a thousand over the years since they lauch the first lock box i think they were the cardassian lock box just after season 4

    i have not opened a 1000 one shot and it is an estimation with the lobi i have and the money i have spent and the lobi spend on gear and other lobi ship

    at least we can buy ship with the lobi and it is not a total lost....
  • starswordcstarswordc Member Posts: 10,966 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    locutuspicard359 wrote: »
    Is there a possibility tath Cryptic may have done a lock box black list? for instance if you don't speak incredibly well of them on the forum they put you on tath list and you may never win a lock box ship?

    Because i have opened a LOT and seriously i mean A LOT of lock box and i never won any of the ships... honestly i must have opened over a thousand of those box over the years and i never won a single lock box ship....

    Tell me wath you think about my theory? is it something possible or is the percentage of chance to win a lock box ship too small?

    (Please pardon me if my english is bad... it is not my native language)

    Respectfully

    Locutuspicard359

    And yet another person who doesn't understand the concept of probabilities.

    A wild guess, but I think you're operating under the gambler's fallacy. The odds of each individual lockbox are static. You have no more or less chance of getting any particular prize on one lockbox than on the next. But the odds for individual prizes are different. You have a 1:1 chance of getting some lobi, and (picking a number at random; I have no clue what the actual odds are) a 1:7,000,000 chance at the grand prize. It's just like playing scratch-offs at your local lottery, except you do have the guarantee of some lobi.

    Sell off the consolation prizes on the Exchange and buy the ship.
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  • aelfwin1aelfwin1 Member Posts: 2,896 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    You could start selling lockbox keys on the exchange , and just buy the lockbox ship you want off the exchange .

    Each key sells for around 2 million EC .
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited December 2014
    This content has been removed.
  • js26568js26568 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Well OP, I'm sat here in my Wells that I won from a lockbox, so take from that whatever you want...
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Free Tibet!
  • alethkiraenalethkiraen Member Posts: 306 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    locutuspicard359 wrote: »
    Is there a possibility tath Cryptic may have done a lock box black list? for instance if you don't speak incredibly well of them on the forum they put you on tath list and you may never win a lock box ship?

    Because i have opened a LOT and seriously i mean A LOT of lock box and i never won any of the ships... honestly i must have opened over a thousand of those box over the years and i never won a single lock box ship....

    Tell me wath you think about my theory? is it something possible or is the percentage of chance to win a lock box ship too small?

    (Please pardon me if my english is bad... it is not my native language)

    Respectfully

    Locutuspicard359

    It's ok dude, the very next box you open will have a ship.
    Free fleet-tier access for all!
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  • leceterleceter Member Posts: 196 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    You entered the Star Casino Online, you got tempted to play and Cryptic...ehm..the bank won.

    Next time Las Vegas? There you can win at least real money.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • meimeitoomeimeitoo Member Posts: 12,594 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Yes, there's a Black List. You're on it. We'll send out a transmission shortly on how to get off it, that you can pick up with any standard-issue tinfoil hat.
    3lsZz0w.jpg
  • lindalefflindaleff Member Posts: 3,734 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Do yourself a massive favour, and just buy the ship with EC. It is a guaranteed win. Problem solved.
    I completed a 2-man CSE, ISE, and KASE, Optionals included. And I soloed Winter Invasion.
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  • kavasekavase Member Posts: 771 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Well...look at it this way. There is a chance you could open 2500 more lock boxes and never get a ship. Chances are probably decent you'll get a ship or even more than one, but there is still a chance you'll never get one also.

    When people say you have a 1/10 chance of winning, you don't buy 10 tickets and expect to get an auto win because it's a 1/10 chance. Some won't win at all while others are oober lucky and get 3 or 4 wins.

    Anyway, yeah, welcome to a lotto system. I wouldn't take it personally. ;)
    Retired. I'm now in search for that perfect space anomaly.
  • eiledoneiledon Member Posts: 595 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    locutuspicard359 wrote: »
    Is there a possibility tath Cryptic may have done a lock box black list? for instance if you don't speak incredibly well of them on the forum they put you on tath list and you may never win a lock box ship?

    -snip-

    I would be very surprised if much over 10% of the playerbase ever visits the forum or the website or even clicks on links on the launcher. You can tell this by the flood of questions in zone anytime something new or even slightly different appears in game, and I think more than 10% of the playerbase have a lockbox ship of some kind or another (wether they be top flight prize or a mirror ship etc).

    As for your paranoid delusions that they are out to get you, others have explained it better before me but in brief - Random Number Generator is Random.

    Don't mind the risk, try the box.
    Don't like the risk, pony up the cash and buy from someone who did take the risk.
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  • fewzzfewzz Member Posts: 242 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    It isnt entirely random though, after many openings etc me and friends have realised a pattern, for example when to open the boxes, lets say you open a box and get a rare doff, open another very quickly and your likely get another doff.

    If you open one and get TRIBBLE leave it a good few secs before opening another.

    We have many lockbox ships now and there is definetly some type of timer involved no matter what you roll if that makes sense.
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