The Grand Irony - The State and Fate of the Promo Ship

kovabomb

The 23rd Century Promo Ship event has come and gone. Cryptic has made a killing on the sales and the collectors and TOS fans have rejoiced. Now we’ve entered a rather interesting phase. With the promo over, supply is very limited on both the R&D promo packs and the ships themselves. At the time of this writing, the promo packs sell for 23 million EC and the ships upwards of 1.2 billion. The invisible hand of supply and demand dictates that such would be the case, and that is well and good.

However, a strange mentality has taken hold. There are those who think that the price of the ships can only keep rising. After all, as supply dwindles the price must go up, right? Well, what if no one is buying the ships any longer? We’ve reached, or will soon reach, the point where those who can afford the astronomical prices will already have the promo ships they want in their shipyards. Any other ships they obtain will sit in their inventory waiting to be resold for just as (if not greatly more) than they paid for them. There will be those who will jealously hold on to these ships thinking that if they can’t make a profit off them, no one else will have them.

The bitter truth is that, given time, the price will fall. All bubbles eventually burst. Such is the case for all promotional ships and prizes. People still want the ships, yes, but if the people who want them can’t afford them then no one benefits. Those who wish to fly the ships are denied the chance and those who possess the ships discover that they are unable to sell them. What once was a billion EC prize meant to be flown and enjoyed becomes a doorstop taking up inventory space (even less than a doorstop, considering that the item in question is nothing more than bits in a computer system).

Eventually, those who wanted the ships but can’t afford them will decide to do without and go their marry way, playing and enjoying a game that celebrates a wonderful franchise. And that is the grand irony in all of this: It’s all just a game. A Free-to-Play game with a limited lifespan. It could be in a year, it could be in 10 years, but Star Trek Online will eventually go offline. And when that day comes, it will be sad indeed if there still are promo ships sitting in inventories. Never flown, never loved, never to be seen again. Worthless.

ddplatt

dum dum dummm though provoking, the price will drop when the next big arrives..

davefenestrator

The price bubble won't "burst," at might reach a ceiling and stop inflating, it might contract a bit, but "burst" implies a sharp drop in price down to (say) 400 million and that is very unlikely. Even a return of the promo won't "burst" the price just make it decline down to the 700 - 1,000 million range.

There will continue to be a trickle of new buyers at very high prices despite some people giving up. New players, old players who get a bonus or holiday present, players returning to the game, or just players who change their mind about how much they are willing to pay.

kodachikuno

kovabomb wrote: »

The 23rd Century Promo Ship event has come and gone. Cryptic has made a killing on the sales and the collectors and TOS fans have rejoiced.

correction a damned lucky few or insanely wealthy few TOS fans have rejoiced.

warpangel

If the 23c promo is re-run at any time, the price will fall dramatically. If it's not re-run, the price will keep rising. It may rise slowly, but it will rise.

A single run of a promo ship simply doesn't generate enough volume to saturate the market. Voth Bulwarks (the last single-run promo ship) have been sold for several billion.

stickystick

kovabomb wrote: »

The 23rd Century Promo Ship event has come and gone. Cryptic has made a killing on the sales and the collectors and TOS fans have rejoiced. Now we’ve entered a rather interesting phase. With the promo over, supply is very limited on both the R&D promo packs and the ships themselves. At the time of this writing, the promo packs sell for 23 million EC and the ships upwards of 1.2 billion. The invisible hand of supply and demand dictates that such would be the case, and that is well and good.

However, a strange mentality has taken hold. There are those who think that the price of the ships can only keep rising. After all, as supply dwindles the price must go up, right? Well, what if no one is buying the ships any longer? We’ve reached, or will soon reach, the point where those who can afford the astronomical prices will already have the promo ships they want in their shipyards. Any other ships they obtain will sit in their inventory waiting to be resold for just as (if not greatly more) than they paid for them. There will be those who will jealously hold on to these ships thinking that if they can’t make a profit off them, no one else will have them.

The bitter truth is that, given time, the price will fall. All bubbles eventually burst. Such is the case for all promotional ships and prizes. People still want the ships, yes, but if the people who want them can’t afford them then no one benefits. Those who wish to fly the ships are denied the chance and those who possess the ships discover that they are unable to sell them. What once was a billion EC prize meant to be flown and enjoyed becomes a doorstop taking up inventory space (even less than a doorstop, considering that the item in question is nothing more than bits in a computer system).

Eventually, those who wanted the ships but can’t afford them will decide to do without and go their marry way, playing and enjoying a game that celebrates a wonderful franchise. And that is the grand irony in all of this: It’s all just a game. A Free-to-Play game with a limited lifespan. It could be in a year, it could be in 10 years, but Star Trek Online will eventually go offline. And when that day comes, it will be sad indeed if there still are promo ships sitting in inventories. Never flown, never loved, never to be seen again. Worthless.

TRIBBLE supply and demand for this game. People know that other players buy EC from a certain website, to buy the expensive and overpriced stuff some would post on the EXC. that's the reason the prices go through the roof.

It has already started on the Xbox One and PS4.

salazarraze

A lot of incoherent blathering with minor coherent claims that are contrary to historical evidence. 23rd century promo ships are highly sought after. The prices and demand for them will not go down unless there is another promo. A second promo will confirm that there will be third, fourth, fifth etc. promos that will eliminate the panic that's contributing to the high price.

Only these things will cause a price drop, not a small number of players that wash their hands of something that they can't afford anyway. And keep in mind that such a price drop will likely be to somewhere around the exchange cap if not slightly above.

kovabomb

davefenestrator wrote: »

The price bubble won't "burst," at might reach a ceiling and stop inflating, it might contract a bit, but "burst" implies a sharp drop in price down to (say) 400 million and that is very unlikely. Even a return of the promo won't "burst" the price just make it decline down to the 700 - 1,000 million range.

There will continue to be a trickle of new buyers at very high prices despite some people giving up. New players, old players who get a bonus or holiday present, players returning to the game, or just players who change their mind about how much they are willing to pay.

Perhaps. But there is one certainty, which I highlighted in my original post: The game will eventually die. And when that death occurs, it will take with it everything that the players have built or saved. It well may be that the bubble will behave as you’ve stated while the game lives, but it will burst completely when the game goes offline. And that is the grand irony: For all the effort that some will exert, it will ultimately come to naught. Best to enjoy what one has and give others the same opportunity while it lasts, and not let greed or stubbornness get in the way of enjoying the game to its fullest.

nixie50

the bubble won't burst any time soon. how much are T5 bug ships going for? and they have been re-released a dozen times

davefenestrator

kovabomb wrote: »

davefenestrator wrote: »

The price bubble won't "burst," at might reach a ceiling and stop inflating, it might contract a bit, but "burst" implies a sharp drop in price down to (say) 400 million and that is very unlikely. Even a return of the promo won't "burst" the price just make it decline down to the 700 - 1,000 million range.

There will continue to be a trickle of new buyers at very high prices despite some people giving up. New players, old players who get a bonus or holiday present, players returning to the game, or just players who change their mind about how much they are willing to pay.

Perhaps. But there is one certainty, which I highlighted in my original post: The game will eventually die. And when that death occurs, it will take with it everything that the players have built or saved. It well may be that the bubble will behave as you’ve stated while the game lives, but it will burst completely when the game goes offline. And that is the grand irony: For all the effort that some will exert, it will ultimately come to naught. Best to enjoy what one has and give others the same opportunity while it lasts, and not let greed or stubbornness get in the way of enjoying the game to its fullest.

Nope, it does not follow from the heat death of the universe that I must give you a discount.

---

All things pass
A sunrise does not last all morning
All things pass
A cloudburst does not last all day
All things pass
Nor a sunset all night
All things pass
What always changes?

Earth...sky...thunder...
mountain...water...
wind...fire...lake...

These change
And if these do not last

Do man's visions last?
Do man's illusions?

Take things as they come

All things pass

--- Lao-Tzu (as translated by Timothy Leary)

---

and

---

You're gonna die
--- William Shatner

salazarraze

kovabomb wrote: »

davefenestrator wrote: »

The price bubble won't "burst," at might reach a ceiling and stop inflating, it might contract a bit, but "burst" implies a sharp drop in price down to (say) 400 million and that is very unlikely. Even a return of the promo won't "burst" the price just make it decline down to the 700 - 1,000 million range.

There will continue to be a trickle of new buyers at very high prices despite some people giving up. New players, old players who get a bonus or holiday present, players returning to the game, or just players who change their mind about how much they are willing to pay.

Perhaps. But there is one certainty, which I highlighted in my original post: The game will eventually die. And when that death occurs, it will take with it everything that the players have built or saved. It well may be that the bubble will behave as you’ve stated while the game lives, but it will burst completely when the game goes offline. And that is the grand irony: For all the effort that some will exert, it will ultimately come to naught. Best to enjoy what one has and give others the same opportunity while it lasts, and not let greed or stubbornness get in the way of enjoying the game to its fullest.

You're taking the wrong view. Players don't hold onto ships out of spite or greed. To leverage more EC, you need to have a strong base. One of the ways to hold tons of EC is to hold some of it in items which includes ships. Maybe some players are happy with just one 23rd Century Ship. Others want ten of them. Others want 10 23rd Century ships, 5 Annoraxes, 1 Voth Bulwark, 15 Jem'Hadar Bugships, 10 Zahls, 10 Astikas, and every other ship in the game. They don't acquire these things by not being smart and giving stuff away.

davefenestrator

It's equally valid to say:

You could die tomorrow. If you really want the Connie you should spend the $200+ to buy it now. Then it won't go to waste, problem solved.

kovabomb

darthmeow504 wrote: »

Nope, it does not follow from the heat death of the universe that I must give you a discount.

---

You seem to miss the point. Two of them in fact.

One, an item is worth nothing if you don't sell it, meaning if you price yourself out of the market then it's a total loss. There's good evidence this has already happened and the ships in the inventories of sellers will need to come down in price or not be sold at all. That's not a "discount", it's a price correction.

Secondly, this is an in-game item with no real world value whatsoever. It was created to be played with and enjoyed by players of the game, it has absolutely zero value in any other context. So if you hoard it and it never sells and nobody gets to enjoy it, it's a total waste.​​

Exactly. This is what my admittedly long-winded original post was trying to get at.

But why should I argue about this? I’ve said my piece and, as I’ve said before, it’s all just a game. I may not like how expensive the promo ships are, but I will not try to force how other people play (or use) the game. I play the game because I enjoy it, but I have not made it my life, nor my castle, nor my money pit. I’ve spent some budgeted recreation money on the game in support of content I enjoyed. I have all the ships and gear I need and am able to hold my own in a battle. I will gain nothing by “kicking against the pricks.”

Now, if you will excuse me, I will return to playing Star Trek Online.

nikeix

There is no such evidence. The packs with a 1% chance of getting one continue to sell briskly -- which averages out to a demand well into the TWO billion plus range for a sure bet purchase. And lets just say the motivation for telling people "oh noes, you'll lose it all" seems just a wee bit self serving.

And the context is "mine's for someone who wants to enjoy it enough they'll help me enjoy fully tricking out a sheshar (a.k.a. buy all three Elachi ships). So yeah, when it happens, both parties will enjoy it quite a bit. Have no idea why you say that has no real world value. My time always has value, and I look forward to spending it tooling around in a silent enemy-style dreadnought .

But hey, it's my risk to take. These days I anticipate holding on to it until the sheshar makes another appearance to see if I'm still wildly lucky (Annorax AND T6 Connie box both on my third promo! pack - crazy!). if I don't get a sheshar out of a couple of boxes, then I can still sell the 23c T6 box and get one from one of the other people that's more lucky than me that time around as a number of new ones will have entered the market.

cidjack

You can buy one of mine for 2 Billion EC. Frak what F2Pers want to pay for it.

scarling

I've always learned that if you hold a rare item, you can keep it at your desired price till a buyer finally caves.

nikeix

There's no absolutes. Some price points will never be met. But every day the player that really wants it is either grinding out more Ec or waiting of the next time they're ok with kicking a little real money in for their fun time. There's no new boxes coming into the game, but there's new money to pay for one coming in ALL THE TIME.

davefenestrator

darthmeow504 wrote: »

salazarraze wrote: »

You're taking the wrong view. Players don't hold onto ships out of spite or greed. To leverage more EC, you need to have a strong base. One of the ways to hold tons of EC is to hold some of it in items which includes ships. Maybe some players are happy with just one 23rd Century Ship. Others want ten of them. Others want 10 23rd Century ships, 5 Annoraxes, 1 Voth Bulwark, 15 Jem'Hadar Bugships, 10 Zahls, 10 Astikas, and every other ship in the game. They don't acquire these things by not being smart and giving stuff away.

The wrong view? These items are VIRTUAL TOYS, their value exists solely in the form of A.) being played with and enjoyed or B.) traded for virtual currency with which to buy other virtual toys to play with. They have ZERO value beyond those two uses. So if someone just hoards them, the entire point of their existence is lost.​​

Nope, they have a real world value of over $175 since that is what people are paying for them. Fiat currency is "VIRTUAL MONEY" just like digital goods are "VIRTUAL TOYS" so I guess that makes perfect sense.

I get paid quite well to "THINK ALL DAY" and mold blocks of logic into digital artifacts that companies pay my employer thousands of dollars a year to license.

thlaylierah

I don't think there are any of these threads made by people that already got their Connie's.

All of the outrage from the OPs of all these threads would evaporate if they were given a T6 Connie IMO.

So rather than see this as an outrage against the unfairness of the situation I see this as an outrage against the perceived unfairness of the current asking price of the T6 Connie, which will only continue to rise.

My advice is to get on the boat now while you still can and there are any still left to buy because it doesn't seem that any of these people are okay with not having a T6 Connie and they're definitely not getting over it.

salazarraze

darthmeow504 wrote: »

salazarraze wrote: »

You're taking the wrong view. Players don't hold onto ships out of spite or greed. To leverage more EC, you need to have a strong base. One of the ways to hold tons of EC is to hold some of it in items which includes ships. Maybe some players are happy with just one 23rd Century Ship. Others want ten of them. Others want 10 23rd Century ships, 5 Annoraxes, 1 Voth Bulwark, 15 Jem'Hadar Bugships, 10 Zahls, 10 Astikas, and every other ship in the game. They don't acquire these things by not being smart and giving stuff away.

The wrong view? These items are VIRTUAL TOYS, their value exists solely in the form of A.) being played with and enjoyed or B.) traded for virtual currency with which to buy other virtual toys to play with. They have ZERO value beyond those two uses. So if someone just hoards them, the entire point of their existence is lost.​​

They are not permanently held. These items have in-game value that allows them to be used to circumvent the EC cap. The have incredible value for those players that want to stock up and hold tons of EC. By tons, I mean billions, Tens of billions, HUNDREDS of Billions. Sure they can always create new toons to hold liquid EC, but holding it in items can be useful too since you'd need to if you want to break the 90 billion mark.

Ok let's expand on this. If you want to make 1 billion EC, what's the best way to do it? Start with 5-10 Billion EC and use it to trade for stuff to profit on and make another billion. This is why players buy and sell stuff, or what you call "hoarding." Sometimes, your EC is held up in items waiting for the correct time to sell. That may be tomorrow or next month. Depends on the item.

It's a strategy that works out quite well for the rich players in STO. None of them fear the end of the game and/or the loss of EC profit if it all comes crashing down because everything would be lost anyway. What you're suggesting is like liquidating your investment accounts since you're just gonna die anyway. That's just stupid. You need to invest that money to take care of yourself in the future. If you die, or the World ends, who cares. The strategy of investing for the future is the correct strategy.

nikeix

darthmeow504 wrote: »

The wrong view? These items are VIRTUAL TOYS, their value exists solely in the form of A.) being played with and enjoyed or B.) traded for virtual currency with which to buy other virtual toys to play with. They have ZERO value beyond those two uses. So if someone just hoards them, the entire point of their existence is lost.​​

If they're so insignificant, then obviously no one should want one.

Oh.

smokebailey

It's not supply and demand....it's more of the REAL truth that corporate suits and banker overlords and politicians think inside.

WE WANT MORE MONEY! (or EC in this case).

And I say, to all those who I call "Comic Book Guy Wannabes" (based on the Comic Book Guy character from The Simpsons), enjoy your virtual warehouse of T6 TOS boxes, because, as Mr. Drakethewhite said in a another thread, regarding the actual numbers of these ships actually SEEN in game:

I was counting the D7s (seen 2) and T'liss (seen 1) as well. But I wasn't counting mine or my sons (both promo box lottery wins).

Given how many I've seen offered for sale and how few I've seen in game (easily the biggest ratio I've ever encountered), I think the comic book guys wannabes may have shot themselves in the foot. They've flipped them between themselves at such insane prices that their investment now exceeds what most people can or will actually pay to use the ship.

Given the investment needed to grab the lion share of them, they can't offer to sell what they have for what actual users of the ship would pay- so their only choice is to hold on to them hoping for better days down the road. Or to flip them to other flippers which in turn drives up the investment and makes the problem even worse. Thus it's likely that a huge percentage of these ships are just sitting in the bank.

I've seen folks spamming, near constantly, their T6 TOS wares, with no end in site, and coupled with the fact that I hardly seen anyone actually having one, I don't see these going to be flying off the shelves....especially not for a billion+ Ec AND keys....I mean, come on, bad enough you're demanding more than the exchange cap, now you want lockbox keys in addition? All I can hope is that NONE of you go into politics or the corporate or banking world (though all 3 sleep together, as it were), because you'd be the folks looking for a way to either charge people for air, or to find a way to add a tax for paying tax.

Not many are going to be either inclined, or capable, for paying those crazy, stupid prices. Hell, to some players, just getting an RD promo pack, let alone the ship itself, is a big time expenditure.

Many of them will tell you where to stick your TOS ship packs, my dear Comic Book Guy wannabes, one corner at a time....

kianazero

salazarraze wrote: »

You're taking the wrong view. Players don't hold onto ships out of spite or greed.

Well, some of them do. There was that big 'event' a few years ago where a group of players did a livestream of them deleting every Bugship they could get their hands on.

orondis

kovabomb wrote: »

The bitter truth is that, given time, the price will fall. All bubbles eventually burst.

Despite pretty much ALL of the previous highly sought after ships just increasing in price?

They only time they drop in price is when Cryptic makes them available again or we get another level cap increase.

staq16

kianazero wrote: »

salazarraze wrote: »

You're taking the wrong view. Players don't hold onto ships out of spite or greed.

Well, some of them do. There was that big 'event' a few years ago where a group of players did a livestream of them deleting every Bugship they could get their hands on.

That was a fake made using Tribble - by a bunch of notorious wind-up merchants.

stickystick wrote: »

**** supply and demand for this game. People know that other players buy EC from a certain website, to buy the expensive and overpriced stuff some would post on the EXC. that's the reason the prices go through the roof.

It has already started on the Xbox One and PS4.

Only idiots do that. Why risk card fraud and ID theft when you can get it easily in game?

I will also offer an opposing view. As a mainly KDF player, I'd built up a (moderate) reserve of Zen, Keys, Promo Boxes and EC "just in case something I have to have comes along". After all, most of the C-store and lockbox releases held no interest.

Then it did - 750M EC for the D4X raider.

Then it did again (!!) - 850M EC for the D7 Cruiser.

So I dropped some real money, but the hoarding paid off.

vampeiyre

I've never cut-and-pasted a response to two different threads, but I'm going to make an exception for this subject.

I think it's reasonable to expect that the price will essentially stay constant-ish. Being the most iconic ships in the franchise, it's pretty much a Vorgon conclusion (har har) that they'll re-run this promo, as they've done so with the bug ship repeatedly.

It's funny that there's always a pair of dog-whistle threads like this up: one thread for people who doomsay that the Connie is worthless because they want one cheap, and the other for a bunch of "Comic Book Guy" Voodoo economists declaring it's already the next Bulwark, and it's worth 2-3 billion.

I think there's at least a grain of truth to the cheapskate sorts of threads: everyone who wants this ship and could realistically afford to pay the give-or-take 1 billion for it already has it, like myself and some others you see commenting. Anyone asking more for it "just coz" is going to sit on it til they get hemorrhoids, or it is inevitably re-released and the value crashes, whichever comes first.

snoggymack22

kovabomb wrote: »

The game will eventually die.

Are you using the TOS Connie as the catalyst for a doom thread? That seems ill conceived. The 50th Anniversary of Star Trek got this game a lot of attention. Release to console, the expansion, and yes the TOS Connie in a promo pack all helped extend this game's life by the interest it generated. So now you're just trying to point out that the game will eventually die? So will the sun, in a few billion years. Entropy wins.

Ok.

Carry on?

nikephorus

I'm glad I don't want these ship's.