It's because the forums think they they are the only people who count and smeg everyone else who doesn't agree with them. I will not have anyone on these forums dictate to me that if I spend my 5 bucks amonth I support a broken game. it's not broken. The forums are for telling me how to spend my money.
Defending The Galaxy By Breaking One Starfleet Regulation After The Next.
But what I want to spend Zen on is stuff you can't buy on the Exchange - the TOS Bundle, for instance. You're not showing me how to get Zen for EC - you're showing me how to get some of the stuff Zen can buy for EC. And I've already done that, which is why my main owns the Mirror Universe deep-space science recon vessel ISS Mengele.
Keys open lockboxes. Lockboxes have rich mining claims. Contraband can be turned in to a security officer.
Both require an alt army to effectively operate. But if you have such an army millions of purple rocks can be yours for less than 30 minutes a day. Which can then become thousands of zen.
It's because the forums think they they are the only people who count and smeg everyone else who doesn't agree with them. I will not have anyone on these forums dictate to me that if I spend my 5 bucks amonth I support a broken game. it's not broken. The forums are for telling me how to spend my money.
Psychology 101: You are trying to own Cryptic's problems. Player do not have a problem with others, but they do have a problem with Cryptic. You have to stop taking the negative backlash personally, for it does not directly affect you on a personal level.
I think the time has come. I think I am done fighting. I think it is time to simply accept that I am not a member of their target audience, and that the game as it is, is simply all it is ever going to be.
Cryptic may never change direction. Since they are making enough money, I do not think Cryptic will have a change in heart. Its all about the money.
I agree with the OP.
I have realized it's a Yes, after seeing Sheshars everywhere some time ago.
No doubt some players are leaving and/or are on a break but we shouldn't forget new players coming
He's got a point. As has been explained, I can get Zen and keys without spending money - but somebody else had to buy them first, and then agree to sell them for in-game resources...
Actually not totally true. Cryptic have the power to add and delete stuff as needed, including Zen and Dil. It allows them to change the market mechanics if needed. The "purchase" is not always accountable to real money, especially if the market is close to extremes.
Just with any market it can be manipulated by the currencies directly.
Chris Robert's on SC:
"You don't have to do something again and again and again repetitive that doesn't have much challange, that's just a general good gameplay thing."
Which is, and not by coincidence, the whole point and thesis of the thread.
Because the only way to get these things is for someone to spend real money on them, the supply of them is absolutely and unbreakably tied to people spending money on the game.
All other game resources can be created just by playing, they are unlimited in the game, but zen and c-store items are strictly limited by the amount of money being spent on the game.
And when you have a ratio of something unlimited/something limited, the ratio will go up and up if there is a slowdown in the limited thing.
Not necessarily. You are only looking from a supply viewpoint and ignoring the demand aspect completely.
I have well over a million purple rocks plus I am expecting to get a stupid amount more on the purple rock weekend. My supply is, for all intents and purpose unlimited.
Yet I have no demand for ZEN. I already have more than I want considering I see nothing I want to purchase, nor do I expect to see anything for quite some time. You see my main is quite happy with the ship he is in and the alts haven't even finished the ship masteries I desire for the traits. This means regardless of what new ships are in the store for the anniversary patch I will probably not purchase them. This is not out of spite, simply lack of desire.
A vicious circle has been created by the current SP reward setup. My alts are progressing painfully slow because I don't bother grinding out patrols like a madman I'm lucky to average one a day instead I do a few queues or don't log it at all. No SP means no Mastery means no new ship.
Price is usually dependent upon both supply and demand. Supply is not limited by anything in this game beyond the value of time played VS money spent. The only true thing that matters is demand in the STO market.
Actually not totally true. Cryptic have the power to add and delete stuff as needed, including Zen and Dil. It allows them to change the market mechanics if needed. The "purchase" is not always accountable to real money, especially if the market is close to extremes.
Just with any market it can be manipulated by the currencies directly.
And we will never find out, how manipulated the Zen market is, like we never find out the real active player numbers.
Using cash shops as an accurate metric as a player is pointless.
The ops archeage example isn't a good one either. As the prices on most things where super inflated at the games launch. Just like keys in this game at one time sold for 4x as much as they do now. The prices of cash shop items in a brand new game are going to be super high when the demand is high. The fact that they drop CAN mean the games population is in trouble... it can also simply mean everyone that is playing has already bought one, meaning the demand will drop. (I don't claim to be up to date on that games economy as I don't play it... just wanted to point out in a new game like that that should be expected behaviour).
As far as STO goes... the market in this game isn't static. Cryptic runs promos to ensure conversion rates and key prices ect stay right where they are supposed to be. At any time they can add a promo adjust the contents of a box ect.
Right now the key market should be pretty stable as the current box is almost end of life... but not so close to EOL that people are pre buying keys for the next box either.
One interesting indicator if you think things are healthy and good... wait for the next lockbox to be dev bloged. At that point if key prices only go up 5-10% the game is in serious trouble. If they go up 20-30% like they have before every other box... then the whales and the player whale hunters are still kicking.
Actually not totally true. Cryptic have the power to add and delete stuff as needed, including Zen and Dil. It allows them to change the market mechanics if needed. The "purchase" is not always accountable to real money, especially if the market is close to extremes.
Just with any market it can be manipulated by the currencies directly.
Very true as well.. its not like its against some rule for them to manipulate things. Heck they could even sell keys themselves into the market on a dev account to keep numbers where they want them to be. Its not like there is some FCC of game economies overseeing them. lol
Which is, and not by coincidence, the whole point and thesis of the thread.
Because the only way to get these things is for someone to spend real money on them, the supply of them is absolutely and unbreakably tied to people spending money on the game.
All other game resources can be created just by playing, they are unlimited in the game, but zen and c-store items are strictly limited by the amount of money being spent on the game.
And when you have a ratio of something unlimited/something limited, the ratio will go up and up if there is a slowdown in the limited thing.
Well you can have the supply being reduced by ppl not buying so much and at the same time reduced usage of keys thus keeping the price and supply constant while still having an overall reduction in sales.
In archage the prices for cash shop items started low and then went up as people stopped spending money on the game.
Sort of to be expected with a launch like that though. It was hyped and had a lot of people jump in to try it out. Its inevitable that a large number are going to decide it isn't the game for them and move on. However while they're trying it out they are likely to buy items to convert to game currency.
When those people leave the supply of people purchasing in game currency goes down of course. SO the exchange rate (there cost in game) goes up. That is completely natural.
My only point was you can't compare a game in its first few months to one that has had its market settle in already. That launch bump of subs levels off after a few months. If archage was live in NA for a year or so... and its market got strange after a major expansion/patch type deal then it would be easier to draw comparisons.
STOs market is honestly easier for Cryptic to control directly. They can do it in a way that we would consider "legit" by promoing the right things at the right time, and adding new boxes or creating value in old ones. They can also very easily control the STO market in ways most of us would consider shady, of course there isn't anything illegal about it though. If Cryptic is really scared about a sudden drop in D or Keys or anything else... they can very easily add things to the market. Nothing stops them from having a dev account post keys for sale or D for exchange if they need to cool adjust a trend. There is a reason game companies hire Economists.
I can only speak personally, but I stopped spending prior to DR.
I was all for buying the Delta pack, in fact it languished in my basket for quite a while. Then DR actually hit and all the issues began.
The further I got into it, the less alt-friendly/grindy it became and nothing else was spent on the game.
The monthly stipend gets used for Dil.
So I suppose I have voted with my wallet, by keeping it shut....that's a "No" then
Same here...
I used to spend money on the game every month. I wanted to support the game and like most any hobby it cost money. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately however you wanna look at it, I haven't spent anything since a little before DR's release. I don't like the direction the game has taken and it's basically my only outlet to show my displeasure as a customer.
I'm at the point now that when a new game comes along that I enjoy I'll probably jump ship and not return. Which is honestly a sad thought because I used to love this game.
The same underlying force is at work though. People playing for free will continue to create ec and dil, but without people paying to keep up the supply of items that can only be got for real money, like zen and c-store stuff, the ratio will start to change.
Thing is this isn't an open regulated market. You can't watch for signs of the countries weakness here. At any time Cryptic can fudge things on there end and you would have no idea. Are those 300 keys that hit the market today 300 player bought keys or 100 and 200 Cryptic injected... Is all that D on the market player farmed. Is all the Zen on the market player bought. (I know that seems crazy but why not buy some D off the market if you want to keep a price scheme at a specific point).
Plenty of people have suspected for a long time that Cryptic "adjusts" the market pretty regular. To be honest if things haven't really been changing much considering what I know as fact it terms of player numbers recently... then its confirmed.
I've never seen any evidence that it is. Or heard any compelling argument that it is.
Plenty of people suspect all kinds of things without having a good reason to do so.
These things being the case, I proceed on the evidence that's available.
What if we lived in a what if world?
I'm around 95% sure Cryptic does all the things I listed. I have seen keys relisted instantly when I have done crazy things like buy 500mil worth. Now we could say Chinese farmer bot. That is very possible... and would also sku any Sky is falling market type indicators. However my money is on those new keys showing up so fast being more likely a server side Cryptic post if you follow me.
I am not really playing right now other then the odd log in here and there. Being a market PvP guy I can tell you that at least 5 of the games market sharks stopped playing around the same time as I did for mostly the same reasons. I couldn't tell you how many of us where in the game. (people with 10+ billion EC + assets moving things around) I would be shocked if the game had more then 20-30 such players though... and I know for a fact 20-30% of them are not playing at the moment. So if the market hasn't changed all that much I would suspect some economic rigging on Cryptics end.
I've spent way too much on this game...every event, including the latest Winter, I bought Zen to buy keys to get Lobi to get Q Autographs, just to get the ship. I also loved Voyager so much that I bought the Pathfinder...but something has changed and I don't feel like paying a single penny more to the game. Content is being NERFED and the fun just seems to be gone. Previously, every major update had so much effort put into it...Nukara, New Romulus, Dyson, but Delta? The Delta Quadrant is undeveloped, tiny and pretty boring. The grind to upgrade, the slow progression to 60, because there's not enough content to reach it by naturally playing the game. There's really nothing worth spend your money on and you're better trying to play for fun and if you earn enough EC or grind enough dilithium, so for it.
There isn't evidence to indicate people are spending significantly less on the game. That's my thesis.
Can't argue with you there at all. I would say they have lost some... I doubt no one is spending. You simply can't trust anything you see in game one way or the other. Frankly if Cryptic doesn't have automated market fixes... or at least ones they can trigger. There stupid. There is no "free" economy in a video game. Even developers that make a big deal about having 100% player driven economies are a little bit lying. I mean even EVE has built in sinks and NPCs placing buy and sell orders on some stuff which gives them a base line of control. Other developers like aNet have an on staff Economist working on GW.
Are people still spending money in STO... who knows. Cryptic won't ever tell you... and nothing in game would really be a good source of info one way or the other.
I know I am not giving them any money... and to go futher I am not enticing people TO give them money anymore either. I used to buy 200 keys a day min (with ec)... now I buy none. I know a handful of other whale churners who have also left the market if not the game. I can't see how loosing a good chunk of the major whale churn people (those of us buying 100s of keys every day and using them) wouldn't effect there bottom line. It *should* effect there in game economy and we *should* be able to see the effects in game on pricing if lots of people stopped feeding the system.
So seeing as nothing has changed in a major way... either 1) your right and the whales are still spending money like they always did... and the farmers of the game are still working away for themselves as well as the whales. or 2) the markets in the game haven't moved much cause Cryptics automated balancing bot is feeding fake (unbought) keys into the system... or perhaps there buying X number of keys from the whales themselves. (not unlike a country that just prints more money when needed)
My bet would be on them buying keys automated like when they need to. If they have lost the army of farmers feeding there whales... I mean they loose nothing buy simply throwing the EC at the people willing to buy it.
There isn't evidence to indicate people are spending significantly less on the game. That's my thesis.
I'll start off by saying that I really, deeply appreciate the OP dipping into metric analyses to make your argument. Of course, it'll devolve into a certain amount of DOOOM! over the course of discussion, but that's just the nature of this forum, amirite?
That having been said...
1) I still think there's a faulty assumption in your thinking - namely that player activity will drive price fluctuations in a singular direction. I can readily imagine a scenario where both supply and demand tail off at relatively equivalent rates - because the players that provide both are migrating away. So there's no reason Zen for dil, or keys for EC would bias in one direction.
I'm thinking of my experience with Star Wars Galaxies (a classic example of live-game mismanagement, IMHO), in which wild price swings and inflation weren't singularly, directly by players leaving - they were tied to the tectonic game changes that were driving away players.
2) I might argue that the bigger variable that would systemically bias the metric being that players more likely to be active in the economy are the ones retained. They're more invested than the casual player; are less likely to be F2P; and will continue to be more likely to spend in the future. So the real question is whether the high investment player is spending enough to offset low investment players, who may leave, spending less, but in higher numbers. Put another way, imagine that the average retained player spends $50/mo. in-game. If twice as many players leave, but are spending a fraction of that $50/mo, then the net loss is absorbed pretty well.
3) The contrasting metric that's been offered in this thread - the clear change in the PvE queues, I don't think can be wholly discounted. If anything, the Argala grind is a clear symptom that game activity is funneling in, despite the Devs' design and intentions. And I believe it to be multifactorial:
a) Rewards for Queue content is under-incentivized.
b) A key miscalculation on Cryptic's part to predict player upgrade and power curves, relative to the increased difficulty of mobs.
So to sum up, DOOOM! is premature. But there are clear metrics that one hopes, should be cause for concern for Cryptic, and will hopefully be actively addressed.
It's impossible to know for sure if a decrease in supply of zen stuff is being perfectly offset by a decrease in demand for it, but I just don't think it's likely. I've been a careful observer of the various promo ship events, since they are one of the most reliable ways to earn huge trading profits.
Well, I don't think they need to be perfectly offset - they just need to be proportional. And going from that principle of biased proportionality - my argument is that because high-ticket capital items are the purview of the already-spending, already-retained players, they'd be less sensitive to market fluctuations based on the net size of the market.
Put another way, let's look at the other end of the spectrum at a cheap item - green Doffs. I dunno 'bout anyone else, but I've been seeing their prices inflate over the past several months.
The prices that Sheshar packs settled at at different times in the event were pretty much just like the ones from previous promos.
Sheshar is an interesting test-case, since it's strictly post-DR and decidedly high-ticket. I'd offer to you that frustrated and at-risk players would simply be dramatically less likely to be on either the supply or demand end of that transaction - so the prices for Sheshar would be preserved.
I suppose in either case, we could say that even if the overall,population of the game is going down, the proportion of people spending money on it isn't.
And this is where I think you meet up with my argument - proportional spending may be preserved (because, who's spending? players that are more likely to stick around) which may belie the possibility that net spending has diminished. And by extension - indicative of a contracting playerbase.
I have noticed one anomaly which I don't have a good explanation for. After DR, the price of old bug ship and bulwark promo packs rose to unprecedented levels. The Sheshar packs are also already higher than promo packs in the past ever got.
As a mild tangent, I have a Bulwark sitting around, that I've not mustered the willpower to put up for sale. I haven't even seen one on the Exchange for the past several weeks now, to try and track relative pricing.
At any rate, for the first time, promo pack prices have excessively exceeded the expected value of opening them.
Which could be another sign of recession - the very high ticket items, the most speculative for sellers to try and invest in acquiring, are the most impacted by net contraction.
STFs didn't stay the same, and people stopped doing them. They got worse, and people started doing more worthwhile things.
This, I think of as the more troublesome alarm. That player activity is funneling into a limited set tells me that Cryptic fundamentally misunderstood the incentive structures they were creating with DR.
After threeish months, I'd hope that their datamining is showing them any of a number of metrics to address whatever new balance and risk-reward baselines DR has rendered. The real question is what and how they'll approaching addressing it.
Going back to my prior Star Wars Galaxies example, grinding holocrons or Dantooine - a funneling of player activity at endgame - was by far the greatest hindsight warning that SOE was not taking content development very seriously or rationally.
Bulwarks long ago exceeded 500m because so few are left, but the next promo will almost certainly be bulwarks, so sell it soon in one of the trading channels.
I saw someone offering one for sale for 650m a few days ago, I don't know if he sold it for that much but I don't think 600m would be unreasonable. Might take a while to find a buyer though.
As a personal preference, I'd just never warmed to the eBay minigame of the Exchange.
I can add it to the endless list of game priorities to keep putting off... :rolleyes:
As a personal preference, I'd just never warmed to the eBay minigame of the Exchange.
I can add it to the endless list of game priorities to keep putting off... :rolleyes:
I don't do PvP so I don't do the exchange beyond just buying what I need to use and dropping blue/purple gear on it slightly above what I can sell it to a vendor for (unless it's something obviously worth more but I don't get those drops).
This is my Risian Corvette. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
I don't do PvP so I don't do the exchange beyond just buying what I need to use and dropping blue/purple gear on it slightly above what I can sell it to a vendor for (unless it's something obviously worth more but I don't get those drops).
Eh. I don't think PvP is a critically necessary prerequisite for Exchange participation, much less speculative game-finance.
The players I happen to know with the deepest EC banks from very active Exchange activity are actually strict PvEers. YMMV, of course.
If anything, I'd argue that the new balancepoint post-DR, the upgrade system, and ensuing DPS arms race has driven more strict PvErs into to the Exchange.
Eh. I don't think PvP is a critically necessary prerequisite for Exchange participation, much less speculative game-finance.
The players I happen to know with the deepest EC banks from very active Exchange activity are actually strict PvEers. YMMV, of course.
If anything, I'd argue that the new balancepoint post-DR, the upgrade system, and ensuing DPS arms race has driven more strict PvErs into to the Exchange.
The exchange is player run. If you're playing the Exchange you're playing against other players.
This is my Risian Corvette. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
As a reply to the post below... I also started F2P, for three months I played with my gaming group, as one of the activities of the team. After 18 months of pay as you go, I decided to pay for a lifetime membership. I realize that lifetime means lifetime of the game, not my lifetime. My prime is at 60 working on his spec tree, and I have 5 ALTs in the 50-60 range working on specs and ships.
My prime is at endgame, and I am working content to get him at endgame DPS. I do not get any enjoyment from PVP, since the rest of my gaming group has put STO on hold since DR. I don't particularly enjoy competing with strangers I don't know except thru a computer interface. Perhaps others find meaning there but I do not. I do enjoy well executed PVE, even with PUGs. I cannot explain that rationally.
As the lockbox content has produced ship that are ugly, fly backwards, and I do not want to own... I have ratcheted back. If some of the more interesting Kazon ships become available at T6, I think my KDF alts would have interest. I put an amazing amount of focus on alt specific LB ships: grinding Dil to buy zen for LB keys, and also using dollars to buy those keys. I really wanted a Ferengi ship for my Ferengi alt (yes, got the alt first). I really wanted a Tal Shiar adapted cruiser for my ROM alt (yes, got the alt first with this in mind).
My gaming group are also stickers for details and appearance, and I have become more interested in the look and costumes of the game. I really want more ships and variety for my KDF and ROM alts... and I mostly say this for my own immersion in the game. I would pay zen for the crimson red jump suits and copper mesh body suits that Khan and his crew wore in the TOS episode Space Seed. I would buy the TOS uniforms dress uniforms that Kirk and Spock and the commodore wore while giving Spock a courts martial for hijacking the Enterprise to bring a paralyzed Pike back to his lost love. I would pay money to open up the color pallet to have my KDF / ROM alts dress in matching green tops and bottoms, instead of having off shades that look like the laundry got mixed up.
When the store for discount research gear openned up, I stopped buying Lock boxes... nothing there I want. I put in a large budget for MATs and bought them. I was actually surprised when the fungus dreadnaught popped up - but I am not sure what to do with it. I suppose it might be a good fit for a KDF alien or KDF / ROM alien later. I currently have no fungus alts available, so it is a stretch for me ... no immersion.
I really would appreciate a T6 upgrade for my Andorian FED TAC who flies an Andorian Escort... And a T6 Vulcan dreadnaught carrier for the Vulcan FED SCI currently flying the Vulcan Sci Vessel... and a T6 Gorn Sci vessel for a Gorn KDF SCI. Okay, you see wehere I am going with this.
Having learned some things from my first, and still main, toon, I for one am largely leveling two others - Thuban Vazlav, a Tellarite who just hit level 52 after completing the "Badlands" mission (the beginning of the Cardassian arc), and James R. Church, a level-36 Captain who just finished Hobus.
Vazlav for one is probably going to be at 60 and working on amassing Specialization points before he ever enters Delta Quadrant. I'll only have to worry about "grinding to level" if the cap suddenly pops up to 70 or something.
Explain the game mechanic that lets you create zen, keys, fleet ship mods, ship upgrade tokens or R&D packs in-game without spending real money.
I'm not sure what sort of assumptions you're working with here, but they don't appear to be true do they?
You're arguing semantics, and its bordering on being a troll.
I played for 21 months without spending a dime in this game - yet I had keys, zen, upgrades and brand new ships. How did this happen?
I 'created' then by logging in after work, grinding, working the exchange and generally running circles around the average player. And you know what - they are players who make what I did look small in comparison. It doesn't mean I'm smarter or have bigger lobes, it's just that I know how to make the system work for me.
It's not to dissimilar with what happens in the real world. The early ferengi gets the grub.
So in a sense - yes I paid money for them. I didn't take home extra work to generate income, Instead I chose to use my down time to play the game which to me had more value than another few hundred dollars for overtime. It's called relaxation for me at least.
Once you get past the metaphysical entanglement of what came first the dollar or the work, you're argument falls a little flat.
Now if you want to argue that the recent changes to STO [R&D, Upgrades & DR difficulty] makes the game unplayable without some sort of cash infusion, then yes I would agree with you.
I've spent just shy of $550 in the past 6 weeks. Partly to get the new ships, but mostly to fund my upgrades. Was it a good investment? Well for the number of hours I play it's cheaper than a good dinner and the night on the town, and it's something I wil play for the next year.
Comments
Defending The Galaxy By Breaking One Starfleet Regulation After The Next.
Keys open lockboxes. Lockboxes have rich mining claims. Contraband can be turned in to a security officer.
Both require an alt army to effectively operate. But if you have such an army millions of purple rocks can be yours for less than 30 minutes a day. Which can then become thousands of zen.
Cryptic may never change direction. Since they are making enough money, I do not think Cryptic will have a change in heart. Its all about the money.
I have realized it's a Yes, after seeing Sheshars everywhere some time ago.
No doubt some players are leaving and/or are on a break but we shouldn't forget new players coming
As long as we get content updates, the game is doing fine.
However: I think they could help the current queue problem by having each queue get a bonus on a daily basis.
Odan Brota (Science Officer): Captain of a 28k DPS Scryer Intel Science Vessel, U.S.S. Kepler
Patiently waiting for a Romulan Science Vessel
Just with any market it can be manipulated by the currencies directly.
"You don't have to do something again and again and again repetitive that doesn't have much challange, that's just a general good gameplay thing."
Not necessarily. You are only looking from a supply viewpoint and ignoring the demand aspect completely.
I have well over a million purple rocks plus I am expecting to get a stupid amount more on the purple rock weekend. My supply is, for all intents and purpose unlimited.
Yet I have no demand for ZEN. I already have more than I want considering I see nothing I want to purchase, nor do I expect to see anything for quite some time. You see my main is quite happy with the ship he is in and the alts haven't even finished the ship masteries I desire for the traits. This means regardless of what new ships are in the store for the anniversary patch I will probably not purchase them. This is not out of spite, simply lack of desire.
A vicious circle has been created by the current SP reward setup. My alts are progressing painfully slow because I don't bother grinding out patrols like a madman I'm lucky to average one a day instead I do a few queues or don't log it at all. No SP means no Mastery means no new ship.
Price is usually dependent upon both supply and demand. Supply is not limited by anything in this game beyond the value of time played VS money spent. The only true thing that matters is demand in the STO market.
And we will never find out, how manipulated the Zen market is, like we never find out the real active player numbers.
Holy Grail of Gamification is Addiction | 5 Ways to Accomplisch | and the Psychology of Freemium
The ops archeage example isn't a good one either. As the prices on most things where super inflated at the games launch. Just like keys in this game at one time sold for 4x as much as they do now. The prices of cash shop items in a brand new game are going to be super high when the demand is high. The fact that they drop CAN mean the games population is in trouble... it can also simply mean everyone that is playing has already bought one, meaning the demand will drop. (I don't claim to be up to date on that games economy as I don't play it... just wanted to point out in a new game like that that should be expected behaviour).
As far as STO goes... the market in this game isn't static. Cryptic runs promos to ensure conversion rates and key prices ect stay right where they are supposed to be. At any time they can add a promo adjust the contents of a box ect.
Right now the key market should be pretty stable as the current box is almost end of life... but not so close to EOL that people are pre buying keys for the next box either.
One interesting indicator if you think things are healthy and good... wait for the next lockbox to be dev bloged. At that point if key prices only go up 5-10% the game is in serious trouble. If they go up 20-30% like they have before every other box... then the whales and the player whale hunters are still kicking.
Very true as well.. its not like its against some rule for them to manipulate things. Heck they could even sell keys themselves into the market on a dev account to keep numbers where they want them to be. Its not like there is some FCC of game economies overseeing them. lol
Well you can have the supply being reduced by ppl not buying so much and at the same time reduced usage of keys thus keeping the price and supply constant while still having an overall reduction in sales.
Sort of to be expected with a launch like that though. It was hyped and had a lot of people jump in to try it out. Its inevitable that a large number are going to decide it isn't the game for them and move on. However while they're trying it out they are likely to buy items to convert to game currency.
When those people leave the supply of people purchasing in game currency goes down of course. SO the exchange rate (there cost in game) goes up. That is completely natural.
My only point was you can't compare a game in its first few months to one that has had its market settle in already. That launch bump of subs levels off after a few months. If archage was live in NA for a year or so... and its market got strange after a major expansion/patch type deal then it would be easier to draw comparisons.
STOs market is honestly easier for Cryptic to control directly. They can do it in a way that we would consider "legit" by promoing the right things at the right time, and adding new boxes or creating value in old ones. They can also very easily control the STO market in ways most of us would consider shady, of course there isn't anything illegal about it though. If Cryptic is really scared about a sudden drop in D or Keys or anything else... they can very easily add things to the market. Nothing stops them from having a dev account post keys for sale or D for exchange if they need to cool adjust a trend. There is a reason game companies hire Economists.
I was all for buying the Delta pack, in fact it languished in my basket for quite a while. Then DR actually hit and all the issues began.
The further I got into it, the less alt-friendly/grindy it became and nothing else was spent on the game.
The monthly stipend gets used for Dil.
So I suppose I have voted with my wallet, by keeping it shut....that's a "No" then
Same here...
I used to spend money on the game every month. I wanted to support the game and like most any hobby it cost money. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately however you wanna look at it, I haven't spent anything since a little before DR's release. I don't like the direction the game has taken and it's basically my only outlet to show my displeasure as a customer.
I'm at the point now that when a new game comes along that I enjoy I'll probably jump ship and not return. Which is honestly a sad thought because I used to love this game.
Thing is this isn't an open regulated market. You can't watch for signs of the countries weakness here. At any time Cryptic can fudge things on there end and you would have no idea. Are those 300 keys that hit the market today 300 player bought keys or 100 and 200 Cryptic injected... Is all that D on the market player farmed. Is all the Zen on the market player bought. (I know that seems crazy but why not buy some D off the market if you want to keep a price scheme at a specific point).
Plenty of people have suspected for a long time that Cryptic "adjusts" the market pretty regular. To be honest if things haven't really been changing much considering what I know as fact it terms of player numbers recently... then its confirmed.
I'm around 95% sure Cryptic does all the things I listed. I have seen keys relisted instantly when I have done crazy things like buy 500mil worth. Now we could say Chinese farmer bot. That is very possible... and would also sku any Sky is falling market type indicators. However my money is on those new keys showing up so fast being more likely a server side Cryptic post if you follow me.
I am not really playing right now other then the odd log in here and there. Being a market PvP guy I can tell you that at least 5 of the games market sharks stopped playing around the same time as I did for mostly the same reasons. I couldn't tell you how many of us where in the game. (people with 10+ billion EC + assets moving things around) I would be shocked if the game had more then 20-30 such players though... and I know for a fact 20-30% of them are not playing at the moment. So if the market hasn't changed all that much I would suspect some economic rigging on Cryptics end.
Can't argue with you there at all. I would say they have lost some... I doubt no one is spending. You simply can't trust anything you see in game one way or the other. Frankly if Cryptic doesn't have automated market fixes... or at least ones they can trigger. There stupid. There is no "free" economy in a video game. Even developers that make a big deal about having 100% player driven economies are a little bit lying. I mean even EVE has built in sinks and NPCs placing buy and sell orders on some stuff which gives them a base line of control. Other developers like aNet have an on staff Economist working on GW.
Are people still spending money in STO... who knows. Cryptic won't ever tell you... and nothing in game would really be a good source of info one way or the other.
I know I am not giving them any money... and to go futher I am not enticing people TO give them money anymore either. I used to buy 200 keys a day min (with ec)... now I buy none. I know a handful of other whale churners who have also left the market if not the game. I can't see how loosing a good chunk of the major whale churn people (those of us buying 100s of keys every day and using them) wouldn't effect there bottom line. It *should* effect there in game economy and we *should* be able to see the effects in game on pricing if lots of people stopped feeding the system.
So seeing as nothing has changed in a major way... either 1) your right and the whales are still spending money like they always did... and the farmers of the game are still working away for themselves as well as the whales. or 2) the markets in the game haven't moved much cause Cryptics automated balancing bot is feeding fake (unbought) keys into the system... or perhaps there buying X number of keys from the whales themselves. (not unlike a country that just prints more money when needed)
My bet would be on them buying keys automated like when they need to. If they have lost the army of farmers feeding there whales... I mean they loose nothing buy simply throwing the EC at the people willing to buy it.
I'll start off by saying that I really, deeply appreciate the OP dipping into metric analyses to make your argument. Of course, it'll devolve into a certain amount of DOOOM! over the course of discussion, but that's just the nature of this forum, amirite?
That having been said...
1) I still think there's a faulty assumption in your thinking - namely that player activity will drive price fluctuations in a singular direction. I can readily imagine a scenario where both supply and demand tail off at relatively equivalent rates - because the players that provide both are migrating away. So there's no reason Zen for dil, or keys for EC would bias in one direction.
I'm thinking of my experience with Star Wars Galaxies (a classic example of live-game mismanagement, IMHO), in which wild price swings and inflation weren't singularly, directly by players leaving - they were tied to the tectonic game changes that were driving away players.
2) I might argue that the bigger variable that would systemically bias the metric being that players more likely to be active in the economy are the ones retained. They're more invested than the casual player; are less likely to be F2P; and will continue to be more likely to spend in the future. So the real question is whether the high investment player is spending enough to offset low investment players, who may leave, spending less, but in higher numbers. Put another way, imagine that the average retained player spends $50/mo. in-game. If twice as many players leave, but are spending a fraction of that $50/mo, then the net loss is absorbed pretty well.
3) The contrasting metric that's been offered in this thread - the clear change in the PvE queues, I don't think can be wholly discounted. If anything, the Argala grind is a clear symptom that game activity is funneling in, despite the Devs' design and intentions. And I believe it to be multifactorial:
a) Rewards for Queue content is under-incentivized.
b) A key miscalculation on Cryptic's part to predict player upgrade and power curves, relative to the increased difficulty of mobs.
So to sum up, DOOOM! is premature. But there are clear metrics that one hopes, should be cause for concern for Cryptic, and will hopefully be actively addressed.
Well, I don't think they need to be perfectly offset - they just need to be proportional. And going from that principle of biased proportionality - my argument is that because high-ticket capital items are the purview of the already-spending, already-retained players, they'd be less sensitive to market fluctuations based on the net size of the market.
Put another way, let's look at the other end of the spectrum at a cheap item - green Doffs. I dunno 'bout anyone else, but I've been seeing their prices inflate over the past several months.
Sheshar is an interesting test-case, since it's strictly post-DR and decidedly high-ticket. I'd offer to you that frustrated and at-risk players would simply be dramatically less likely to be on either the supply or demand end of that transaction - so the prices for Sheshar would be preserved.
And this is where I think you meet up with my argument - proportional spending may be preserved (because, who's spending? players that are more likely to stick around) which may belie the possibility that net spending has diminished. And by extension - indicative of a contracting playerbase.
As a mild tangent, I have a Bulwark sitting around, that I've not mustered the willpower to put up for sale. I haven't even seen one on the Exchange for the past several weeks now, to try and track relative pricing.
Which could be another sign of recession - the very high ticket items, the most speculative for sellers to try and invest in acquiring, are the most impacted by net contraction.
This, I think of as the more troublesome alarm. That player activity is funneling into a limited set tells me that Cryptic fundamentally misunderstood the incentive structures they were creating with DR.
After threeish months, I'd hope that their datamining is showing them any of a number of metrics to address whatever new balance and risk-reward baselines DR has rendered. The real question is what and how they'll approaching addressing it.
Going back to my prior Star Wars Galaxies example, grinding holocrons or Dantooine - a funneling of player activity at endgame - was by far the greatest hindsight warning that SOE was not taking content development very seriously or rationally.
As a personal preference, I'd just never warmed to the eBay minigame of the Exchange.
I can add it to the endless list of game priorities to keep putting off... :rolleyes:
I don't do PvP so I don't do the exchange beyond just buying what I need to use and dropping blue/purple gear on it slightly above what I can sell it to a vendor for (unless it's something obviously worth more but I don't get those drops).
Eh. I don't think PvP is a critically necessary prerequisite for Exchange participation, much less speculative game-finance.
The players I happen to know with the deepest EC banks from very active Exchange activity are actually strict PvEers. YMMV, of course.
If anything, I'd argue that the new balancepoint post-DR, the upgrade system, and ensuing DPS arms race has driven more strict PvErs into to the Exchange.
The exchange is player run. If you're playing the Exchange you're playing against other players.
Might as well use numerology and have the same amount of credibility.
Look, Tau Dewa was 17x too effective, DR > any other expansion, and we all know that 17 > 3, so....
HL3 CONFIRMED!!!!
ROFL... I was waiting for Ep2^2 just to bypass using the numeral 3 on his part. He must have had a scare as a kid that haunts him to this day.
My prime is at endgame, and I am working content to get him at endgame DPS. I do not get any enjoyment from PVP, since the rest of my gaming group has put STO on hold since DR. I don't particularly enjoy competing with strangers I don't know except thru a computer interface. Perhaps others find meaning there but I do not. I do enjoy well executed PVE, even with PUGs. I cannot explain that rationally.
As the lockbox content has produced ship that are ugly, fly backwards, and I do not want to own... I have ratcheted back. If some of the more interesting Kazon ships become available at T6, I think my KDF alts would have interest. I put an amazing amount of focus on alt specific LB ships: grinding Dil to buy zen for LB keys, and also using dollars to buy those keys. I really wanted a Ferengi ship for my Ferengi alt (yes, got the alt first). I really wanted a Tal Shiar adapted cruiser for my ROM alt (yes, got the alt first with this in mind).
My gaming group are also stickers for details and appearance, and I have become more interested in the look and costumes of the game. I really want more ships and variety for my KDF and ROM alts... and I mostly say this for my own immersion in the game. I would pay zen for the crimson red jump suits and copper mesh body suits that Khan and his crew wore in the TOS episode Space Seed. I would buy the TOS uniforms dress uniforms that Kirk and Spock and the commodore wore while giving Spock a courts martial for hijacking the Enterprise to bring a paralyzed Pike back to his lost love. I would pay money to open up the color pallet to have my KDF / ROM alts dress in matching green tops and bottoms, instead of having off shades that look like the laundry got mixed up.
When the store for discount research gear openned up, I stopped buying Lock boxes... nothing there I want. I put in a large budget for MATs and bought them. I was actually surprised when the fungus dreadnaught popped up - but I am not sure what to do with it. I suppose it might be a good fit for a KDF alien or KDF / ROM alien later. I currently have no fungus alts available, so it is a stretch for me ... no immersion.
I really would appreciate a T6 upgrade for my Andorian FED TAC who flies an Andorian Escort... And a T6 Vulcan dreadnaught carrier for the Vulcan FED SCI currently flying the Vulcan Sci Vessel... and a T6 Gorn Sci vessel for a Gorn KDF SCI. Okay, you see wehere I am going with this.
You're arguing semantics, and its bordering on being a troll.
I played for 21 months without spending a dime in this game - yet I had keys, zen, upgrades and brand new ships. How did this happen?
I 'created' then by logging in after work, grinding, working the exchange and generally running circles around the average player. And you know what - they are players who make what I did look small in comparison. It doesn't mean I'm smarter or have bigger lobes, it's just that I know how to make the system work for me.
It's not to dissimilar with what happens in the real world. The early ferengi gets the grub.
So in a sense - yes I paid money for them. I didn't take home extra work to generate income, Instead I chose to use my down time to play the game which to me had more value than another few hundred dollars for overtime. It's called relaxation for me at least.
Once you get past the metaphysical entanglement of what came first the dollar or the work, you're argument falls a little flat.
Now if you want to argue that the recent changes to STO [R&D, Upgrades & DR difficulty] makes the game unplayable without some sort of cash infusion, then yes I would agree with you.
I've spent just shy of $550 in the past 6 weeks. Partly to get the new ships, but mostly to fund my upgrades. Was it a good investment? Well for the number of hours I play it's cheaper than a good dinner and the night on the town, and it's something I wil play for the next year.
But for the casual player - it's a non-starter.