Proving it sounds like doing the kind of math I hate with the deepest sense of passion.
The math is not actually that hard to do. It is called a z-test or t-test. The only real issue would be getting enough data to make it work, which would not only be individual data on the drop rate, but individual data on all the variables that could affect the drop rate. Considering c-store purchases are not documented in any invoice, getting enough of that data could be hard to come by.
But, using these tests you could conclude (if the evidence supports it) that, for instance, there is less than a 5% chance that group A has the same drop rate for the ship as group B.
Much lower could've been 5% instead of 12% (AFTER getting something else than a blue box out of the red box). You are assuming everyone has played eastern style MMOs before. Notice how new DOFF packs included the words "super-rare" but it was missing from the gift boxes.
Grab bag games have never been just eastern style MMOs. Now that's just MMOist.
And I'm pretty sure I got a DOFF pack from one of the gift boxes on my Klingon character. I think. I'll get back to you on that.
Actually, such a lawsuit could never win because any Philosopher of Math could tell you that probabilities are not verifiable from real world data.
I am not sure what a philosopher of math is but verifying probabilities with real world data is the definition of several professions, namely scientists and statisticians.
What is interesting is that the executive producer spun it as if the feedback had been an equal mix of good and bad.
Considering that the only large source of feedback (as far as I know) is the forums, I would say that is way off base. The forums seemed to be mostly a mix of negative and apathetic, with a tiny dash of positive in regards to the grab bags. I do not think I saw any posts that said, "wow, these grab bags are a terrific idea!"
Maybe their "positive" feedback is all the money they managed to make off of us. :rolleyes:
You forget the OTHER source of hard - verifiable player Feedback, and that comes from the amount of these items purchased from the C-Store. Honestly, if most players did think it was a complete scam or ripoff; the 'Winter Package' honestly woouldn't be selling as well as it is.
So far, the numbers show that this is pretty much how it is playing out. Around 40% of players who logged into STO at all in the past 5 days bought at least one Winter Package. Of the people who bought at least one, around 8% of those bought more than a casual number, and less than 1% really made a go for the starship.
^^^^
These are the 'metrics and feedback Cryptic is really paying attention to.
The math is not actually that hard to do. It is called a z-test or t-test. The only real issue would be getting enough data to make it work, which would not only be individual data on the drop rate, but individual data on all the variables that could affect the drop rate. Considering c-store purchases are not documented in any invoice, getting enough of that data could be hard to come by.
But, using these tests you could conclude (if the evidence supports it) that, for instance, there is less than a 5% chance that group A has the same drop rate for the ship as group B.
Actually from everything I am seeing, fitting data to a geometric distribution is quite difficult. It's a simple matter to divided the number of the desired outcome by the number of observations. Performing any sort of goodness of fit test on that is substantially more involved than would be the case for most other distributions. I sort of gave up on that.
You can check my latest post in the "Jem'Hadar Ship Drop Rate" thread to see an estimation on obtaining the ship via the race. Spoiler: I am predicting about 9,670 races before you have a 50/50 shot at the ship. I'd welcome anyone's input there.
Well this is first MMO I've played where I've seen them (apart from Perfect World).
I'm pretty sure a large part of the community expect to receive gifts.
Ah-ha, but we did get gifts. We didn't open the presents and then get a letter from Q going, "Ha ha, Merry Christmas, you Grinch!" and then have nothing in it. We got nifty ornaments that we can exchange for holiday goodies and sometimes we get nice weapons or an uber rare escort that people are srs bzn to get. What people seem to want is to be guaranteed to get the escort because you either a) spent a boatload of money and found your self unlucky or b) rage when some lucky fellow manages to get the escort in two tries and believe its some sort of corporate conspiracy trying to TRIBBLE you over.
At any rate, it's probably gonna end up in the C-Store sooner or later. This is mid-season Jingle All the Way, except instead of trying to acquire Turboman, people are fighting to get the escort.
Actually from everything I am seeing, fitting data to a geometric distribution is quite difficult. It's a simple matter to divided the number of the desired outcome by the number of observations. Performing any sort of goodness of fit test on that is substantially more involved than would be the case for most other distributions. I sort of gave up on that.
You can check my latest post in the "Jem'Hadar Ship Drop Rate" thread to see an estimation on obtaining the ship via the race. Spoiler: I am predicting about 9,670 races before you have a 50/50 shot at the ship. I'd welcome anyone's input there.
Well, there are two possibilities (as I see it):
The first possibility is the normal one. The data is not very good. This seems most likely.
The second possibility is the sinister one. The drop rate is a variable, not a constant, so you should be seeing different Gaussians for different groups (or binomials if that is what you are fitting). In the unlikely event this is true, it is very/I] concerning.
^ This game has been far from Star Trek for a very long time...the lottery scam is the latest example. STO is not the MMO people bought a LTS for during Beta or before hand when pre-ordering. STO is a completely different creature thirsty for cash...killing the good name of Star Trek...STO is the thing Star Trek destroys in the future.
You know as much as I dislike a lot of the changes being made - as a real Star Trek fan (meaning into fandom since the 1970ies) - honestly - STO is no worse then the other Star Trek Licensees in regards to 'cashing in' on Star Trek as over the years, we're had:
- Star Trek pewtr 'chess sets'
- Star Trek beach towels
- Star Trek Christmas ornaments
- Star Trek cookie cutters
- etc.
And a whole plethora of items - including the IDIC jewlery that GR himslf sold after the end of the series - and originally Spock was just supposed to wear the pin; but Nimoy flat out refused untill they came up with a REASON for his character to wear the pin until some dialogue was added to the scene explaining WHY Spock was wearing the pin.
Look, I do like Star Trek; and I also like the positive message it trys to present; but lets stop trying to make Gene Roddenberry out to be some sort of autruistic saint who did Star Trek 'for the message'. Yes, he used and wanted to use the show for social commentary; but he too was out to make a very good living and NEVER passed up a merchandising deal for Star Trek either.
Star Terek in general is an entertaining show/franchise with an overall positive message. It's NOT a qusi-religious philosophy; and GR was FAR from being an altruistic saint.
Yes, he used and wanted to use the show for social commentary; but he too was out to make a very good living and NEVER passed up a merchandising deal for Star Trek either.
Star Terek in general is an entertaining show/franchise with an overall positive message. It's NOT a qusi-religious philosophy; and GR was FAR from being an altruistic saint.
*cough*The pay-to-watch screenings of Star Trek bloopers at conventions*cough*
I did buy one of those IDIC pins. Fabulous to nerd up your weekend.
Somehow I think this gets lost but most of the complaints Ive seen have no said that an ultra rare item should be easy to get. People in the western market tend to get the concept of making ultra rare items a challenge to obtain that's why they are ultra rare. Its the manner in which this ultra rare item was made obtainable. Putting the best escort in the game stat wise into a random ultra rare box. Mr. Spock would say highly illogical.
Actually, Mr. Spock would know that economics is all about scarsity and choices. Something that is ultra rare HAS to have some sort of ultra rare opportunity cost to obtain, be it high prices or slim chancess of getting it.
While I have not spent any money I do have sympathy for the portion of people who are infuriated as you say that they spent so much and failed to get the ship. To provide some context for my sympathy I play collectable card games its a nice hobby to engage in with my kids. When booster packs are released they can have upwards of 100+ cards and some of those will be extremely rare. Never the less despite that rarity if you where to go out and spend say $700 as one report I have seen put it at (Aside from being nuts IMO) your odds of not having every single possible variation of every card in that set would be extremely low.
So yeah I have a little sympathy for those who shelled out huge sums. Not much it was their choice but I do think the odds should have been disclosed up front.
I don't, lifes about opportunity cost. They knew (within the bounds of a reasoable person) that the chances were slim that they were going to get the ship, and continued throwing down c-store points (money) to try to get it. Spending past a persons own "reasonable" threshold, that alows them to not win whatever they are trying to win, was thier decision. My threshold was my stipend (400 C-store points), I played, I didn't win. That's what life is about, disappointments are part of the game of life. Some people lose a lot more when they experience disappointment.
I don't, lifes about opportunity cost. They knew (within the bounds of a reasoable person) that the chances were slim that they were going to get the ship, and continued throwing down c-store points (money) to try to get it. Spending past a persons own "reasonable" threshold, that alows them to not win whatever they are trying to win, was thier decision. My threshold was my stipend (400 C-store points), I played, I didn't win. That's what life is about, disappointments are part of the game of life. Some people lose a lot more when they experience disappointment.
Actually, that is the problem. They did not necessarily have any idea what the odds are. Saying the odds are "slim" is meaningless because it is completely qualitative and the wording on the promotion did not even state that much.
Some people have neurological or psychological problems that make impulse control difficult. The laws of the fifty States, federal law, and not to even mention the laws of foreign countries regulate lotteries and sweepstakes to protect the public interest, yet Cryptic did not feel that their lottery should be limited by those laws.
Actually, that is the problem. They did not necessarily have any idea what the odds are. Saying the odds are "slim" is meaningless because it is completely qualitative and the wording on the promotion did not even state that much.
Some people have neurological or psychological problems that make impulse control difficult. The laws of the fifty States, federal law, and not to even mention the laws of foreign countries regulate lotteries and sweepstakes to protect the public interest, yet Cryptic did not feel that their lottery should be limited by those laws.
Lets not go down this road again, remember the results of the last time this was brought up? Lets just agree and say that if a person doesn't exactly know or doesn't like the odds of winning something, its best not to undertake the risk.
Lets not go down this road again, remember the results of the last time this was brought up? Lets just agree and say that if a person doesn't exactly know or doesn't like the odds of winning something, its best not to undertake the risk.
While I do not disagree, it is akin to saying, if you are not certain that acupuncture will cure your cancer, it is best not to undertake the procedure. The fact that a prudent, skeptical consumer might not pay for a procedure he has no reasonable belief will work does not ameliorate the responsibility of a business not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts. Similarly, the fact that a reasonable, skeptical consumer might understand that he is buying a ticket for a lottery with unknown odds does not absolve the business running the lottery of the responsibility not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts.
Agree, let's not e-lawyer it. It's shady, that's for sure, and like I said, a mistake I'll never, ever repeat, regardless of what e-shiny is on offer. I'll be damned if I blow the same 750 the other guy blew.
Ah-ha, but we did get gifts. We didn't open the presents and then get a letter from Q going, "Ha ha, Merry Christmas, you Grinch!" and then have nothing in it. We got nifty ornaments that we can exchange for holiday goodies and sometimes we get nice weapons or an uber rare escort that people are srs bzn to get. What people seem to want is to be guaranteed to get the escort because you either a) spent a boatload of money and found your self unlucky or b) rage when some lucky fellow manages to get the escort in two tries and believe its some sort of corporate conspiracy trying to TRIBBLE you over.
At any rate, it's probably gonna end up in the C-Store sooner or later. This is mid-season Jingle All the Way, except instead of trying to acquire Turboman, people are fighting to get the escort.
Actually I'm trying to get a scarf for each character and it seems like I have to do the runs every day until January to get it. The feeling of "Yay! Presents!" kind of died off after yet another box without Terran Ornaments or some other missing token. If I could at least trade them to my own characters...
On the last day of the event, if I still haven't got enough of the salvage to get the Scarves for all of my alts, I might (stress might) purchase a couple of the Gift Boxes, not before then and not for any other reason.
I don't even want the ship. If I do happen to get it I will likely give it away.
On the last day of the event, if I still haven't got enough of the salvage to get the Scarves for all of my alts, I might (stress might) purchase a couple of the Gift Boxes, not before then and not for any other reason.
I don't even want the ship. If I do happen to get it I will likely give it away.
:cool:
Just save yourself the money and buy the blue boxes off the exchange.
Actually I'm trying to get a scarf for each character and it seems like I have to do the runs every day until January to get it. The feeling of "Yay! Presents!" kind of died off after yet another box without Terran Ornaments or some other missing token. If I could at least trade them to my own characters...
Sadness. I'm trying to get scarves too. Scarves and the frozen boots because you can ice skate on the lake and that's kinda fun. I am going to keep the rest of the ornaments for nostalgia's sake, they're just too pretty to reconvert to latinum. (I don't even use latinum anyways...-_-)
Actually, you know what would be cool for those leftover ornaments? Have them displayed in your Captain's Quarters!
I'd kill to have that Vulcan Meditation Incense somewhere in my ship for my Vulcan captain...
While I do not disagree, it is akin to saying, if you are not certain that acupuncture will cure your cancer, it is best not to undertake the procedure. The fact that a prudent, skeptical consumer might not pay for a procedure he has no reasonable belief will work does not ameliorate the responsibility of a business not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts. Similarly, the fact that a reasonable, skeptical consumer might understand that he is buying a ticket for a lottery with unknown odds does not absolve the business running the lottery of the responsibility not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts.
At the risk of taking this thread further down the road to closure, your statement of "the business running the lottery of the responsibility not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts" requires intent of misleading. If you really believe that there is proof of misleading and violating laws or torts, file a claim to the F.T.C. or the courts, otherwise... its all a puff of smoke up the players respective skirts..........
If you expect something from random chance, it's possible you'll never get it. Even stated chances may not always happen, ie 1 in 100 wins, it only means there's a possibility. I've only bought a few of the boxes and not gotten it. I'll just go with the prizes for the ice race tyvm.
I am done with games of chance in STO. I have seen the light. And they are definitely ramping this practice up. I put money into the red boxes and came away with nothing.
LESSON LEARNED THE HARD WAY! I don't care if they release the Enterprise-F or any other "exclusive" item this way, I won't go for it, I'll just make do with what I have which is pretty darn impressive.
Live and learn!
I wouldn't worry about the Enterprise-F being released thru grab bags. These forum's would burn brighter than a Supernova if they decided to do that.
At the risk of taking this thread further down the road to closure, your statement of "the business running the lottery of the responsibility not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts" requires intent of misleading. If you really believe that there is proof of misleading and violating laws or torts, file a claim to the F.T.C. or the courts, otherwise... its all a puff of smoke up the players respective skirts..........
I have been informed that I am not allowed to discuss the potential legal implications or any potential legal remedies for Cryptic's lottery on these boards. I will respect that as we are guests.
Comments
The math is not actually that hard to do. It is called a z-test or t-test. The only real issue would be getting enough data to make it work, which would not only be individual data on the drop rate, but individual data on all the variables that could affect the drop rate. Considering c-store purchases are not documented in any invoice, getting enough of that data could be hard to come by.
But, using these tests you could conclude (if the evidence supports it) that, for instance, there is less than a 5% chance that group A has the same drop rate for the ship as group B.
Grab bag games have never been just eastern style MMOs. Now that's just MMOist.
And I'm pretty sure I got a DOFF pack from one of the gift boxes on my Klingon character. I think. I'll get back to you on that.
I am not sure what a philosopher of math is but verifying probabilities with real world data is the definition of several professions, namely scientists and statisticians.
You forget the OTHER source of hard - verifiable player Feedback, and that comes from the amount of these items purchased from the C-Store. Honestly, if most players did think it was a complete scam or ripoff; the 'Winter Package' honestly woouldn't be selling as well as it is.
From SDAngelo's Post (Here - Link):
^^^^
These are the 'metrics and feedback Cryptic is really paying attention to.
Actually from everything I am seeing, fitting data to a geometric distribution is quite difficult. It's a simple matter to divided the number of the desired outcome by the number of observations. Performing any sort of goodness of fit test on that is substantially more involved than would be the case for most other distributions. I sort of gave up on that.
You can check my latest post in the "Jem'Hadar Ship Drop Rate" thread to see an estimation on obtaining the ship via the race. Spoiler: I am predicting about 9,670 races before you have a 50/50 shot at the ship. I'd welcome anyone's input there.
Well this is first MMO I've played where I've seen them (apart from Perfect World).
I'm pretty sure a large part of the community expect to receive gifts.
Ah-ha, but we did get gifts. We didn't open the presents and then get a letter from Q going, "Ha ha, Merry Christmas, you Grinch!" and then have nothing in it. We got nifty ornaments that we can exchange for holiday goodies and sometimes we get nice weapons or an uber rare escort that people are srs bzn to get. What people seem to want is to be guaranteed to get the escort because you either a) spent a boatload of money and found your self unlucky or b) rage when some lucky fellow manages to get the escort in two tries and believe its some sort of corporate conspiracy trying to TRIBBLE you over.
At any rate, it's probably gonna end up in the C-Store sooner or later. This is mid-season Jingle All the Way, except instead of trying to acquire Turboman, people are fighting to get the escort.
Well, there are two possibilities (as I see it):
The first possibility is the normal one. The data is not very good. This seems most likely.
The second possibility is the sinister one. The drop rate is a variable, not a constant, so you should be seeing different Gaussians for different groups (or binomials if that is what you are fitting). In the unlikely event this is true, it is very/I] concerning.
You know as much as I dislike a lot of the changes being made - as a real Star Trek fan (meaning into fandom since the 1970ies) - honestly - STO is no worse then the other Star Trek Licensees in regards to 'cashing in' on Star Trek as over the years, we're had:
- Star Trek pewtr 'chess sets'
- Star Trek beach towels
- Star Trek Christmas ornaments
- Star Trek cookie cutters
- etc.
And a whole plethora of items - including the IDIC jewlery that GR himslf sold after the end of the series - and originally Spock was just supposed to wear the pin; but Nimoy flat out refused untill they came up with a REASON for his character to wear the pin until some dialogue was added to the scene explaining WHY Spock was wearing the pin.
Look, I do like Star Trek; and I also like the positive message it trys to present; but lets stop trying to make Gene Roddenberry out to be some sort of autruistic saint who did Star Trek 'for the message'. Yes, he used and wanted to use the show for social commentary; but he too was out to make a very good living and NEVER passed up a merchandising deal for Star Trek either.
Star Terek in general is an entertaining show/franchise with an overall positive message. It's NOT a qusi-religious philosophy; and GR was FAR from being an altruistic saint.
*cough*The pay-to-watch screenings of Star Trek bloopers at conventions*cough*
I did buy one of those IDIC pins. Fabulous to nerd up your weekend.
Actually, Mr. Spock would know that economics is all about scarsity and choices. Something that is ultra rare HAS to have some sort of ultra rare opportunity cost to obtain, be it high prices or slim chancess of getting it.
I don't, lifes about opportunity cost. They knew (within the bounds of a reasoable person) that the chances were slim that they were going to get the ship, and continued throwing down c-store points (money) to try to get it. Spending past a persons own "reasonable" threshold, that alows them to not win whatever they are trying to win, was thier decision. My threshold was my stipend (400 C-store points), I played, I didn't win. That's what life is about, disappointments are part of the game of life. Some people lose a lot more when they experience disappointment.
Actually, that is the problem. They did not necessarily have any idea what the odds are. Saying the odds are "slim" is meaningless because it is completely qualitative and the wording on the promotion did not even state that much.
Some people have neurological or psychological problems that make impulse control difficult. The laws of the fifty States, federal law, and not to even mention the laws of foreign countries regulate lotteries and sweepstakes to protect the public interest, yet Cryptic did not feel that their lottery should be limited by those laws.
Lets not go down this road again, remember the results of the last time this was brought up? Lets just agree and say that if a person doesn't exactly know or doesn't like the odds of winning something, its best not to undertake the risk.
While I do not disagree, it is akin to saying, if you are not certain that acupuncture will cure your cancer, it is best not to undertake the procedure. The fact that a prudent, skeptical consumer might not pay for a procedure he has no reasonable belief will work does not ameliorate the responsibility of a business not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts. Similarly, the fact that a reasonable, skeptical consumer might understand that he is buying a ticket for a lottery with unknown odds does not absolve the business running the lottery of the responsibility not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts.
Actually I'm trying to get a scarf for each character and it seems like I have to do the runs every day until January to get it. The feeling of "Yay! Presents!" kind of died off after yet another box without Terran Ornaments or some other missing token. If I could at least trade them to my own characters...
I don't even want the ship. If I do happen to get it I will likely give it away.
:cool:
Just save yourself the money and buy the blue boxes off the exchange.
Sadness. I'm trying to get scarves too. Scarves and the frozen boots because you can ice skate on the lake and that's kinda fun. I am going to keep the rest of the ornaments for nostalgia's sake, they're just too pretty to reconvert to latinum. (I don't even use latinum anyways...-_-)
Actually, you know what would be cool for those leftover ornaments? Have them displayed in your Captain's Quarters!
I'd kill to have that Vulcan Meditation Incense somewhere in my ship for my Vulcan captain...
At the risk of taking this thread further down the road to closure, your statement of "the business running the lottery of the responsibility not to mislead its customers by refusing to disclose pertinent facts" requires intent of misleading. If you really believe that there is proof of misleading and violating laws or torts, file a claim to the F.T.C. or the courts, otherwise... its all a puff of smoke up the players respective skirts..........
I wouldn't worry about the Enterprise-F being released thru grab bags. These forum's would burn brighter than a Supernova if they decided to do that.
I'm pretty convinced that, like the Prometheus, there will be multiple T5 versions of the Odyssey class with different consoles and BO loadlouts.
Gambling?
Isn't it exactly the same as a slot machine?
^ /facepalm
I guess you know someone at Cryptic and / or are loyal to our new Emperor at PWE. :rolleyes:
This is an MMO lottery...which is worse than a RL one.
I have been informed that I am not allowed to discuss the potential legal implications or any potential legal remedies for Cryptic's lottery on these boards. I will respect that as we are guests.