Refining for cheap

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  • Bearleeable - Lost City
    Bearleeable - Lost City Posts: 445 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    The distribution (variation) is a discrete version of a Poisson process. I've done Poisson distributions before, but not the discrete version. Google says it's called a Bernoulli process. So while calculating the average number of mirages needed is relatively straightforward, the distribution around that average is going to be geometric for +1, and compounded for the higher refines.

    In English, in a Normal distribution, the chance of being above or below the average is the same and symmetric. If on average it takes you 2 tries, the chance of it taking 1 try or 3 tries is the same. And since it's impossible for it to take 0 tries, it's also impossible for it to take 4 or more tries.

    In a Poisson or Bernoulli distribution, the chance of being above or below the average is the same, but is asymmetric. If you have a 50% chance of success, on average it will take you 2 tries. It could also take you 1 try. But it could also take you 3, 4, 5 even 10 tries. The chance of 3 to infinity tries is the same as the chance for 1 try, but as you point out the asymmetric distribution can cause a relatively high deviation from the average.

    Fortunately the average is all you need to "play the odds" and figure out the best way to proceed. But it's going to be relatively easier to spend a lot more than the average.

    LOL and in englsh this means what?
    The other day I spent 120 mirage to get to +3. It was sickening. My wife goes to a different place and gets +3 in 9 mirage. The place I did it @ was the place NORMALLY i have an easy time getting to plus 3.
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  • HimiInuOni - Dreamweaver
    HimiInuOni - Dreamweaver Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    heck i got my boots +5 with no orbs on on Dream weaver ParaHypnosis got an item +10 with no orbs *took alooot of mirages and luck xD*
  • DTK - Dreamweaver
    DTK - Dreamweaver Posts: 88 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    I just got my lunar claws to +11 with 7 tishas and bout 42 mirages. I love this guide b:victory
  • jinemon
    jinemon Posts: 13 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    who cant afford to buy dragon orbs? lol wish you poor people would quit already
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    jinemon wrote: »
    who cant afford to buy dragon orbs? lol wish you poor people would quit already
    Well, by your definition, anybody who has any equipment below +11 is somebody who is "poor".

    Anybody who is refining to +7 or less using Dragon Orbs is basically refining 1 1/2 levels less. For example, if all your equipment is refined to +6 using Dragon Orbs, you could have refined half of it to +7 and half of it to +8 for roughly the same price.

    Once you reach +11 or +12, though, the benefits of refining without Dragon Orbs are reduced to about a 15% savings or less.
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  • tigerfille
    tigerfille Posts: 11 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    I kinda skipped a few pages coz they were so many ^^

    HAVE anyone ever gotten to like +3 to +7 or higher easy after failing first time on the item?

    coz no notes taken here or statistics run but i know of several people getting high refine on like first try without failing. like getting +7 on 7 mirages. but i only heard about it if they get success from start never heard of someone failing 2-3 times first then get +7 easy.

    and one more thing i think its random but as its said true randomness cant be achieved, is it just me or if you fail with an item alot just stop.

    when i refined my full gear som i easily got to +3 several times on some items and some i wasted like 50 mirages and havnt gotten to +2. the chance of only getting +1 with 50 mirages must be lower then the chance of getting to like +10.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    Using the basic strategy in this guide I have achieved +7 about 5 or 6 times and a +8 refine once.

    My worst case was about 2000 mirage for a +7 (not much savings if any over orbs), but often get it in much fewer. While I have achieved a +8 refine once out of 3 attempts I don't really recommend it as the amount of risk in that last click is very high.

    If you are interested in refining your gear without dragon orbs I recommend the following strategy to have the least amount of stress.

    1) Refine your lowest refined gear first
    Squeezing more out of lower refines is much easier with a given amount of mirage. Try getting all your gear to +1 first, then +2, etc.

    2) Work on only one item at a time. Have a goal to increase the refine of that item by 1. If you fail you are only risking 1 item.

    3) Before starting have enough mirage to retrieve your old refine if you fail. It's really disheartening running around with gear of a lower refine than when you started. Out of alot of experience, here are the general amounts I recommend to restore old refines.

    +2 - 10 mirage
    +3 - 50 mirage
    +4 - 100 mirage
    +5 - 200 mirage
    +6 - 500 mirage
    +7 - 1000 mirage

    This means don't attempt to refine a +2 item unless you are prepared to spend 10 mirage to restore the +2 refine. You should be mentally prepared to burn this many and then feel happy when you raise your refine with 1 mirage.

    4) Don't be disheartened by a string of bad luck. You can't win them all and sometimes things just don't work. I tried to refine a friends bow to +4 and failed that +4 refine 11 times in a row with Tienkang. She later was able to get it to +5 on her own and still saved a decent amount of money over a +5 refine with orbs.
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  • DXBWarrior - Harshlands
    DXBWarrior - Harshlands Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    lol i got my hh99 arms to +4 with 14 mirages and my robe from +0-4 with 4 mirages and also my helm was +3 and used 1 mirage to +4 it , so its all about luck i think btw those what i refined without stones/dorbs.
  • KILLERSTE - Heavens Tear
    KILLERSTE - Heavens Tear Posts: 11 Arc User
    edited June 2010
    87 barb played nearly 2 years.only 1 i can quote on is mirage as im allways poor lol.n my luck with mirage has been very very poor.i get to plus 1,then lots fails to get to 2,then lots fails to get back to 2 n think stop lol.
  • Angel - Harshlands
    Angel - Harshlands Posts: 158 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    anyone know if this is normal,
    i used 360 mirages, got my neck to +4. legs and chest to +3. and arms and feet to +2...
    kinda fail.
    I used tienkang to try to get it to +4, rest mirages.
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  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Angel - Harshlands wrote: »
    anyone know if this is normal,
    i used 360 mirages, got my neck to +4. legs and chest to +3. and arms and feet to +2...
    kinda fail.
    I used tienkang to try to get it to +4, rest mirages.
    You're right about your results being kinda fail.

    On average, it takes 178 Mirages to get one +4, two +3s, and two +2s. So you used almost exactly double the average.

    On a positive note, though, savings vs. Dragon Orbs are roughly ~70% at low levels, so you still saved about half the cost, even with the bad luck.
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  • _Grim_Reaper - Harshlands
    _Grim_Reaper - Harshlands Posts: 27 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    is it normal to use 100 mirages to +3? i been doing that rather consistenly, trying to +5 an item (as in using 100 mirages to get the item to +3 then trying tienkangs for +4 which haven't worked yet lol)
  • Noob - Raging Tide
    Noob - Raging Tide Posts: 771 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Gosh im such a noob are refining D: 87 mirages for a +2 top and another 76 for a +2 weapon T_T

    EDIT: Tried getting wep to +3 and wasted 340 mirages T_T Now im feeling really bad as my wep has no refines n im out of mirages :/ also now realizing i coulda sold 100 of the mirages to get a 3* orb D:

    QQ30 refines straight 0 -> +1 fail
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  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    _Grim_Reaper - Harshlands wrote: »
    is it normal to use 100 mirages to +3? i been doing that rather consistenly, trying to +5 an item (as in using 100 mirages to get the item to +3 then trying tienkangs for +4 which haven't worked yet lol)
    100 is certainly above the average, but runs of bad luck do happen, so in that sense it's still normal. The average is 37 Mirages for a +3 on non-weapons, and double that for weapons.

    Yesterday I went on a streak of about 100 Mirages without reaching +3 on a Gold FC Belt, but in the end the total cost was about 2.5 million which is slightly below the average cost of about 2.9 million.

    Then I went to refine a Gold FC Necklace and managed to fail +1 10 times in a row! The odds of that happening are 1 in 1024, but since I've refined about 15 items to +5 now I've had tons of opportunities to see such a bad luck streak happen. That one actually ended up taking less than 100 Mirages to reach +5, so the cost was only about 1.5 million, which was quite lucky.

    Of course, for every time I've ended up coming in below average cost I've also had times where I ended up above average cost. But only 1 time out of 15 did it come in above the cost of on-sale Dragon Orbs.
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  • mogwai
    mogwai Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    got a lv 30 SoulSphere to +3 no fail 1st go at it
    on the other hand it took 53 mirages to regain a +2 status on a necklace

    the point is that if there is a better way to refine without spending cash, then it would likely be the discoverer's most guarded secret
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  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    mogwai wrote: »
    the point is that if there is a better way to refine without spending cash, then it would likely be the discoverer's most guarded secret
    I guess I'm not very good at guarding secrets then. b:chuckle

    The PW-China forums are full of threads where people offer magical formulas for refining, and it seems that these threads are almost always locked and require you to meet certain post-count requirements to read them. My suspicion is that the forum admins over there are trying to guard the "secrets", but I can't really be sure since I can't read Mandarin.

    I did find one thread that discussed the "secrets" that wasn't locked yet, though. The "secrets" were, quite frankly, stupid.

    It recommended the usual Duke Blacke rumours, but then it added things like "refine a 1-star white item until it fails 3 times in a row, then switch and do your +4 refine with a Tienkang Stone". There were other nonsense recommendations too, but judging by people's responses it sounds like they're having the exact same results with this set of "secrets" as would be predicated by the spreadsheet at the start of this thread.

    I find it impressive that here at PWI we all got together to test things objectively, and as a result we now have the exact formulas figured out and posted publicly in our forums.
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  • Knownase - Heavens Tear
    Knownase - Heavens Tear Posts: 6,959 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I finally tried this out and.....I gotta say...Im in love with this thread. lol

    I originally had +3 gear, after using mirages and Tienkang Stones, I was able to give 5 pieces of my gear up to +5. I used about 460 mirages altogether, those mirages were free from Nien Event and BH100 rewards. I have about 110 mirages left over now. I used about 20 Tienkang stones altogether too.

    b:victory Epic thread is epic.

    Edit: Everything is +5'd now, except the rings and belt. :]
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  • Zanryu - Dreamweaver
    Zanryu - Dreamweaver Posts: 7,261 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I used 60 mirages on multiple pieces of +2 gear. They did nothing but reset on me and I had to use every mirage just to +2 it all again >.> *cries*
  • Noob - Raging Tide
    Noob - Raging Tide Posts: 771 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Cries for Zan b:cry
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  • Brigid - Harshlands
    Brigid - Harshlands Posts: 1,332 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    Just used 400 mirages, 10 Tienkangs, and I think 4 Tishas to get my Heaven Shatterer to +6. That's about 7.5m spent, compared to nearly 20m if I had used Dragon Orbs. Another success story!

    Also, I quit at +6 because I went straight from 0 to +6 on 12 mirages, 2 Tienkangs, and a Tisha after a streak of nearly 20 failed +1s. Made me nervous, despite the fact that I know probability doesn't work that way b:surrender
  • Knownase - Heavens Tear
    Knownase - Heavens Tear Posts: 6,959 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    +5 my TT99 axes now, just wondering though, should one risk +6 and higher and if so, has anyone have decent luck?

    Im planing to risk +6 on my gears when I have enough mirages.
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  • Kado - Sanctuary
    Kado - Sanctuary Posts: 109 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    I have read a bit of this and noticed a lot of threads post about buying mirages under cost from cat shops but I didn't see anything stating the same for dragon orbs. Granted I could have overlooked it.

    You may know of my thread on here Ultimate Dragon Orb Combining Guide....... Anyhow if you take in to consideration that when the dragon orbs go on sale which has been becoming more frequently the average price in a cat shop BUYING Dragon orbs can be found on Sanctuary anyhow to be right around 60-70k per one star.

    That being said a person would be able to make the following orbs at a cost of.....

    Table jumbles a bit the segments are Orb Total orbs Costs Combined Costs

    Orb Total Orbs Cost Combined Costs
    1 1 $70,000.00 $70,000.00
    2 4 $280,000.00 $350,000.00
    3 10 $700,000.00 $1,050,000.00
    4 25 $1,750,000.00 $2,800,000.00
    5 60 $4,200,000.00 $7,000,000.00
    6 130 $9,100,000.00 $16,100,000.00
    7 215 $15,050,000.00 $31,150,000.00
    8 405 $28,350,000.00 $59,500,000.00
    9 750 $52,500,000.00 $112,000,000.00
    10 1370 $95,900,000.00 $207,900,000.00
    11 2525 $176,750,000.00 $384,650,000.00
    12 4645 $325,150,000.00 $709,800,000.00


    Not saying by any means that it would be cheaper, obviously. Just some numbers to be considered in to your equations. Also keep in mind I shot high at 70k. Now when the orbs are not on sale they can range from 80-105k per.

    Also the Ah prices dwindle off quite quickly after the 4 star orb on. If you buy at 70k per and try to resell you will wind up losing money. In other words the prices listed above may very slightly even to the point of being dramatically less.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    Knownase - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    +5 my TT99 axes now, just wondering though, should one risk +6 and higher and if so, has anyone have decent luck?

    Im planing to risk +6 on my gears when I have enough mirages.
    Personally, I stop at +5 simply because it's a nice round number and I'm not high enough level to justify much more yet. There's no reason to not go for +6 though, but keep in mind it's going to take roughly twice as long, be twice as frustrating, and cost twice as much as +5.
    Kado - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I have read a bit of this and noticed a lot of threads post about buying mirages under cost from cat shops but I didn't see anything stating the same for dragon orbs. Granted I could have overlooked it.
    Mirages sell for 10k to NPCs, so that's their minimum price. Dragon Orbs go on-sale for 30%-off, so the lowest price they'll ever be depends on Gold prices. You're right that people set up cat-shop offering to buy below-cost, but there's no sellers at that price.

    I do my price comparisons using 30%-off Dragon Orbs bought using Gold directly from the AH, since that's the cheapest possible realistic and reliable source.

    Granted, the best possible price would be to buy Gold when it's low (ie. no Packs or Dragon Orbs on-sale), then buy the Dragon Orbs when they're on-sale. However, the exact same technique can still applied to non-Dragon Orbs as well because you can leverage your cheap Gold into profit by buying the Dragon Orbs during the sale and re-selling them right away, after which you can use the profits to still refine without Dragon Orbs for cheaper than if you had used them.

    Basically, Dragon Orbs remain essential for going past +8, and thus your combining guide remains an essential tool for high level refines. But the cheapest way to get to that point is always going to be to avoid Dragon Orbs (unless Gold prices somehow drop dramatically back to ~100k, that is). So as I see it, our two guides compliment each other nicely.
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  • Kado - Sanctuary
    Kado - Sanctuary Posts: 109 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    I was simply stating that throughout this there has always been a somewhat biased opinion stated about the price of orbs and non biased to mirages/stones. You state on numerous occasions about the low price of mirages and the HIGH Gold cost of orbs.

    Second when you state:
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    You're right that people set up cat-shop offering to buy below-cost, but there's no sellers at that price.

    You are mistaken I for one on this last sell alone have flipped over 600 orbs at a buying rate of 60-70k per. Not until tuesday night did I raise my buying price to 75k per.
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Granted, the best possible price would be to buy Gold when it's low (ie. no Packs or Dragon Orbs on-sale), then buy the Dragon Orbs when they're on-sale. However, the exact same technique can still applied to non-Dragon Orbs as well because you can leverage your cheap Gold into profit by buying the Dragon Orbs during the sale and re-selling them right away, after which you can use the profits to still refine without Dragon Orbs for cheaper than if you had used them.

    The previous quote above I find to be a very logical source and idea in order to supply ones upgrades.
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    (unless Gold prices somehow drop dramatically back to ~100k, that is)

    Wouldn't that bring back memories!!

    Simply put all things considered when you look at it side by side you are 100% correct in stating that the lower level refining process should be kept to the mirages/stones and upper level to the Dragon Orbs considering the cost of failure at that level.

    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    So as I see it, our two guides compliment each other nicely.

    Well put!
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    Kado - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I was simply stating that throughout this there has always been a somewhat biased opinion stated about the price of orbs and non biased to mirages/stones. You state on numerous occasions about the low price of mirages and the HIGH Gold cost of orbs.
    My bias is just a reaction to what the math is telling me. I'm certainly not loyal to any particular refining strategy, so I'll back whichever horse is the leader.

    It wasn't until after the math had been figured out, tested, and calculations made that my jaw kinda hit the floor at the price difference. What I thought would be maybe savings of a few million refining gear up to +4 turned out to be savings of hundreds of millions refining gear up to +8.

    Subjectively, sure, it would be nice if Dragon Orbs were the better choice because they're far less frustrating. But objectively, the numbers are what they are, and my bias is towards the numbers.
    Kado - Sanctuary wrote: »
    You are mistaken I for one on this last sell alone have flipped over 600 orbs at a buying rate of 60-70k per. Not until tuesday night did I raise my buying price to 75k per.
    Hmm... sounds like you were able to buy at about 10% below cost. That's definitely an interesting result, and one I admit I wouldn't have expected!

    Assuming you were getting them for 66k (10% below cost) when Gold was at 400k, the savings for a +5 refine using Mirage/Tienkangs drops to ~3.8 million (57%) instead of 4.5 million (61%).

    Now I'm curious... Perhaps a 50%-off sale, plus buying at 10% below cost? The spreadsheet says that would be 49k per Orb at 400k Gold, and the savings for a +5 refine using Mirage/Tienkang would drop to ~2.2 million (43%).

    Interesting... I admit I would have thought a 50%-off sale would have had more of an effect. A 75%-off sale tips the scales completely, with Dragon Orbs becoming the clear best refining choice for anything beyond +2. The exact tipping point seems to be a 71%-off sale (or 68%-off combined with buying for 10% below cost). At that point both cost roughly the same for low and mid level refines.
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  • Kado - Sanctuary
    Kado - Sanctuary Posts: 109 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    My bias is just a reaction to what the math is telling me. I'm certainly not loyal to any particular refining strategy, so I'll back whichever horse is the leader.

    Sorry I probably should have worded that differently but you understood where I was going.
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    It wasn't until after the math had been figured out, tested, and calculations made that my jaw kinda hit the floor at the price difference. What I thought would be maybe savings of a few million refining gear up to +4 turned out to be savings of hundreds of millions refining gear up to +8.

    I fully agree that difference in cost is absolutely jaw dropping and i fully agree with going up to a mid level refine 6 or maybe slightly higher with your method. From that point forward it may be easier for orbs. Of course now that this update has ran your numbers may need adjusting again LOL. I truly hope not seeing how the cost may deflate on orbs and that is where I make my money currently. It is already a pretty cut throat market.
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Hmm... sounds like you were able to buy at about 10% below cost. That's definitely an interesting result, and one I admit I wouldn't have expected!

    Ive been able to do that every sale. I have paid for my TT90 gear which is all 3 socketed immacs +4 or higher and so far I think 8 sage skill books.
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Now I'm curious... Perhaps a 50%-off sale, plus buying at 10% below cost? The spreadsheet says that would be 49k per Orb at 400k Gold, and the savings for a +5 refine using Mirage/Tienkang would drop to ~2.2 million (43%).

    I don't see them getting even remotely close to that though... Dragon Orbs that is...
  • Atreana - Lost City
    Atreana - Lost City Posts: 23 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    1000 mirages, 20 tisha and 15 tienkang stones, my heaven shatterer now remains at +4. Did it on different days, different times, different elders, closing and opening the window on consecutive fails. I swear no other games have refining fail probabilities more than PWI.

    At an average cost of 13k per mirage, that's 13m down the drain not including the tisha and tienkang stones and the frustration. I swear PWI's refining rate reflects the devs' masochistic side.     b:angry
  • ahomiya
    ahomiya Posts: 16 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    To WarrenWolfy:

    I'm curious if I've found a flaw in your otherwise excellent Refine Costs sheet.

    The costs and savings listed under Best Refining Choice versus D.Orb Only are not consistent.

    Under Best Refining Choice, the cost reflects how much you would need to spend on average to get just that refine level. So for example, Level 2 takes on average 10 refines, so with Mirages at 14k each, the cost on average is 10*14k=140000. That's fine.

    However, under D.Orb Only, you're always adding the cost of the previous refine level. So for Level 2, you have Level 1 + Level 2 cost, not only the Level 2 cost. To be consistent with the Best Refining Choice, I expected only the Level 2 D.Orb price + 1 Mirage. Or you should have made Best Refining Choice always add the previous refine level as well.

    This makes the savings appear higher than they should. After I edited the D.Orb Only column by deleting the "+G**" part, the savings were much lower, especially for higher level refines and especially for weapons (double Mirage cost). For refines 6 or 7+ for weapons, it seems to make sense to just use D.Orbs and not try your luck.

    Sorry if this was mentioned before or if I misunderstood something.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    ahomiya wrote: »
    The costs and savings listed under Best Refining Choice versus D.Orb Only are not consistent.

    Under Best Refining Choice, the cost reflects how much you would need to spend on average to get just that refine level. So for example, Level 2 takes on average 10 refines, so with Mirages at 14k each, the cost on average is 10*14k=140000. That's fine.

    However, under D.Orb Only, you're always adding the cost of the previous refine level. So for Level 2, you have Level 1 + Level 2 cost, not only the Level 2 cost. To be consistent with the Best Refining Choice, I expected only the Level 2 D.Orb price + 1 Mirage. Or you should have made Best Refining Choice always add the previous refine level as well.
    Thanks for taking the time to check my math, I really appreciate it when others look over my work for mistakes, since I'm no math major.

    The previous refining level cost actually does get added in, but it's normally done near the beginning of the calculation instead of in the final cell like it is in the "D.Orb Only" column. For example, for a +2 Mirage refine if you look at E:41 you can see it adds "+C26" to the cost, which is the cost of a +1 refine.

    It's done differently than the "D.Orb Only" column because it's much more complex to figure out what the costs are when you might fail, whereas the "D.Orb Only" can take advantage of the fact there are no failures to greatly simplify the equation.

    You can confirm both methods will give the same results by using the Excel version to force "Dragon Orb" to be the choice for all refines, and it will use the more complex add-previous-cost-first equation, except with Dragon Orbs always being the choice. The results will match the simpler "D.Orb Only" calculation.
    ahomiya wrote: »
    After I edited the D.Orb Only column by deleting the "+G**" part, the savings were much lower, especially for higher level refines and especially for weapons (double Mirage cost). For refines 6 or 7+ for weapons, it seems to make sense to just use D.Orbs and not try your luck.
    The equivalent would be to delete the "+C**" from the costs listed in Rows 41 to 51, and if you do that you'll see that things will become pretty unrealistic. The two "Dragon Orb" columns will match (assuming you've deleted the "+G**" you just described as well), but the other columns will show absurdly low prices. For example, the cost of a +12 Mirage refine will be just 280k!
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  • ahomiya
    ahomiya Posts: 16 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    The previous refining level cost actually does get added in, but it's normally done near the beginning of the calculation instead of in the final cell like it is in the "D.Orb Only" column. For example, for a +2 Mirage refine if you look at E:41 you can see it adds "+C26" to the cost, which is the cost of a +1 refine.

    I looked at it again and I understand now, thanks for clarifying. Before I thought the "Refining Choice" price was simply something like Average Refines * Attempt Cost, but now that I look at the formulas a bit closer I see it's not that simple.

    I guess the mistake I made was relying on the "D.Orb Only" column too much when making decisions on whether or not I should just create a D.Orb instead of chancing it. Using the Zoho sheet as an example, I wrongly thought making a 5* D.Orb would cost me 9,709,000, when I should've simply looked up and see that it costs 5,783,400.

    The way the sheet has only cumulative costs to get from +0 to a certain refining level seems to make it only useful for people in exactly that situation. Which to me seems kind of rare. Most of my gear is +4-+6 already, so I'm not interested in how much it would cost to start from scratch to +5. I'm only interested in the cost to go from +4->+5.

    Because of the chances of failure, is it impossible to put a price on chancing it for just a particular refining level? The D.Orb only price from +4->+5 is the cost of a 5* D.Orb + a Mirage. What's the Tienkang+Mirage only price for +4->+5?

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