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After 50 pres wards, still not upgraded to R10
namelesshero347
Member Posts: 2,109 Arc User
I just blew through 50 pres ward and my draconic enchantment is still not upgraded to R10 yet. I get its 10% chance. But 50 fails and still counting!?! WTF is wrong with the RNG!?! So frustrating. Taking a break before I give PWE more money.
Post edited by namelesshero347 on
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success chance = 10%
}
else {
success rate = 1%
}
Upgrade enchantments with 1% chance requires an average of 94 preservation wards (test pool was 84 enchantments done). Worst: 444 preservation wards, best: 0.
But yes, it should be more smooth...
You might as well use a Coalescent ward then and avoid the heartache.
But of course, some people enjoy gambling
That's a waste of a coal ward. You'd need to use 100 pres wards to match the cost of a coal ward. While possible with unlucky streaks, it's more likely that it won't cost that much.
I had 85 fails in a row on a 50% chance upgrade. I was less than pleased and ended up using a coal ward. I may be paranoid but we have had a running joke about this for many double RP events back where such seems to be the case (but more likely since more are refining it just stands out more).
i had 74 fails for a rank 6
rng is not working is a matter of fact.
the best way to upgrade is trying 10 times and then stop in not populated instances.
There comes a point when something that has a 0.00001% chance of happening, happens often enough that you have to take your head out of your xxxxx and accept that fact that it's a bug and not the random number generator or bad luck.
I went through 42 wards yesterday upgrading an artifact to legendary. 10% chance too. Happens far too often.
http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag
That is the worst advice anyone could ever give.
You would need to burn up nearly 100 preservation wards to equal 1 coalescent ward. Even in the case of the OP burning up 50, he still spent less then a single coal ward.
If sll you are doing is trying to save money then it is bad advice.
If you are trying to alleviate stress and frustration and get back to having a good time...it is excellent advice.
The only stress I see here, seems to be self induced.
Pressing the button.
Each time you have to pay attention and make sure the ward is in so you don't use your precious supplies. (we have all seen reports from those who forget the ward after attempt 23). After about 10 times you you start to feel a minor twinge of annoyance with every FAIL! Oh well 20 FAILS! may as well try again tomorrow you say...oh that makes one feel so good when they go to bed failing.
Or you just plop down 200k and do it, done-in-one SUCCESS! Once you have bought it you have already made the decision, so not any stress really.
That said, I use green wards most of the time
That's 500k for a coal ward. That's 8m just in coal wards for a full set of rank 10s and 3 legendary artifacts. More for next module. That's a lot considering it's just the cost of success and ignoring the already significant cost of the requirements.
But for some purposes, that's the wrong question to ask. If 1000 people each try something with a 10% chance of success until they succeed, the odds that someone fails at least 50 times in a row is about 99.43%.
Larger sample sizes cause the probabilities to even out some due to various laws of large numbers. If you need to keep rolling until you have ten successes, then the probability that you'd have at least 500 failures (i.e., average at least 50 failures) is about 0.000000000009245%. Or, a whole lot less than 0.515% above. If a million people in the playerbase all tried this, the probability that any of them would have 500 failures before their ten successes is still small enough that it's very unlikely that it would happen.
Indeed, if you have to roll until you get ten successes, the probability that you'd have at least 200 failures is less than 0.2%--and considerably less than 50 failures before your first success. And 200 failures is only a little over double the expected value of 90.
This sort of distribution actually does some things that you might find counterintuitive. For example, if you roll until you have 10 successes, the probability that you end with fewer than 90 failures--that is, do better than the expected value--is about 53.55%. So a majority of the players do better than average. The most likely number of failures is actually a tie between 80 and 81. But that long tail still exists.
There's also a substantial measurement bias. If you have to roll until you get a success on ten different occasions, and you end up with 90 failures in total, you likely don't remember the times that you had a quick success after only a failure or two so well. But you sure remember that time that you ran up 40 failures and were convinced that the game is out to get you.
This, of course, all assumes that the random number generator in the game is a good one. But that's an entirely different can of worms.
Quaternion from the previous forum
First rank 10 took me about 10 tries
Second rank 10 succeed on 4th try!
In the past, the worst I ever had for 10% was about 22~23 tries, that was like a nightmare, and I felt 'some coding must have screwed up!', then I closed my window, zone into another zone, and then bang, on 3~4th try! Not sure if things screws up if you do it too fast too repetitvely, but if it doesn't go well on the first few attempts, try to whack a few mobs, zone into another zone and see if you find a new RnG God that works for you?
Author of GWF Speed Demon PvP Build (Mod 11) <- Click to reveal the Speedy Beast! >:)
I did 32 upgrades this weekend costing 155 pres wards. 10 of the upgrades hit on the first try, including two 20%-ers. Average cost per upgrade was 4.8 pres ward. Pretty good, even with the one nasty outlier. I guess in the end, it kind of averages out.
Other record was for a 40% chance, failed 27 times.
I don't believe in 85 fails on 50% chance that someone mentioned (even if every person in the world would play that game from its beggining)
I
Believe what you want, but it happened to me. It was 45 fails and I posted and then I had 40 more after posting (well some combination on that as it could have been 65 + 20 as I posted in the double RP thread).
I've not kept any records but I reckon I've had enough refines that succeeded in the first couple of attempts to balance out those where it seems to take loads. And, hey, at least pres wards are cheap.
True. I haven't been keeping close track but I'm right about average with my success. Sometimes I get lucky and hit a 20% chance on the first try. Sometimes I lose 6-7 times on a 40%. But overall I'd say I'm close to the expected %.
Give a man a fire and he's warm for the day. But set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life.
Secondly, I advise anyone doing upgrading to go off somewhere by yourself, an instance with no spawns by the entrance or a foundry. Then it's just you and the RNG alone together and no noise from anyone else also doing stuff. You should always see results that are representative of the stated percentages this way (on average).
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