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zen count going up in Zen/Astral Diamond Exchange
spike0337
Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 2 Arc User
So i was checking the zen/ad mark and seen that 1 zen count was going up.It was at 334,000 something then jump up.As i type this its at 339,587.I don't think that someone is sitting there adding a little amount that often.The amount it gos up is different each time.Seen it go up 20 then another time by 100 and the timing is different to.Sometime a few sec then back to back. Its at 342,173 now.Could someone check to see if its going on or just a bug on my end.But don't see how it could be a bug.It's the 1st 1 at 500 ad for 1 zen.344,451.I know there was a bug back when the game start to make AD but haven't seen any thing about making zen.I'm look at from gateway.
Post edited by spike0337 on
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When you consider there are tens to hundreds of thousands of players who may need anywhere from 20-5,000 Zen it is not hard to imagine that any given time somebody would request to buy Zen.
Hmm.
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There, I did my part to lessen the Zen Buyers' burden.
With enchantment pricing on the steep rise in Auction House there is more want for Astral Diamonds. So certainly the pendulum will (slowly) begin swaying toward the opposite direction. As long as the pool of buy orders for 500/1 is whittled down faster than it builds-up it will start to stabilize at 499/1, 498/1 and so on. It's up to the Zen Buyers to force this to happen, though.
Make no mistake, this is an amazingly important crossroads and quite probably Neverwinter's most important to date. One single official word from Cryptic will bring balance to the zen market. I hope Cryptic employs economists....
You obviously aren't a Zen seller because 1) there is no belief (or foolish idea, much less any kind of hope) among all sensible Zen Sellers that the AD/Zen Exchange Cap will be raised/lowered/or removed and 2) No one is "holding onto" their Zen. Sure, I keep an average of about 3500 to 5000 in my account just in case they release a kikazz Mount or Companion, but that's the only reason. Otherwise if I see something that I really want that costs AD I'll sell Zen to get any AD I don't already have. (Pro tip: I have to *want* Astral Diamonds before I'll sell my Zen Point to get them - and I can earn them pretty quickly as it is).
So, ummm, yes, you are making a mistake, a rather big one at that. Unless, of course, you happen to be a Zen seller holding onto your Zen because you think the cap will be raised or removed so you can make an extra 1,000 Astral Diamonds per transaction. (?) In which case, you're still mistaken because the cap that is in place is here to stay. Removing it just isn't going to happen. Changing it could happen, but I wouldn't lend to hope on that one, either.
~shrug~
It's simple supply vs demand. Just like the stock market. If the # of people willing to buy zen for AD at 500:1 outnumber the # of people willing to sell zen at 500:1 then the buy orders keep piling up and that number keeps rising.
AD has greatly devalued which is why items have risen on the AH. So 500/1 looks like a loss. If they raised the cap to 750/1, or even 1K/1, I would bet you would see a lot more Zen being sold.
What about when that cap is reached? Do you raise it again and again or just simply get rid of it then? Raising the cap is a bandaid, they need better AD sinks.
I disagree - that would just devalue the AD even more. The current caps are a good thing. Be careful not to mix-up "time" (as in the time it takes to trade) with "value" (the worth of the trade) - just raising (or removing) the cap would speed-up trades, but not benefit the value of the trade (just the opposite, actually) so the same thing happening right now would continue status-quo: there would be no Zen sellers to fill all the buy orders - the only singular difference is the exchange rate.
Raise the value of Astral Diamonds and I'll sell more Zen to get them. it's not about how many AD I can get for my Zen Point, it's about the worth of the AD - the more valuable the AD the fewer I'm willing to trade for. Value of AD is measured by AH pricing of the items I want to buy.
The fortunate side-effect of the sudden rarity of Coalescent Wards is that prices of enchantments are starting to go through the roof - meaning the value of each Astral Diamond is now rising (the more something costs, the more valuable the currency is in terms of need for Zen Sellers to sell - not actual value) - in fact this is exactly the reason I sold another 5000z just this morning: because I didn't have enough AD to get that Enchantment I wanted now (!), rather than spend the three or four days it would take to just earn that AD.
The ZAX Cap at 500/1 is not the problem. The value of AD is the problem (currently valued at 1/500th of a single Zen Point). Raise the value of AD and more people will want them, thereby selling more Zen Points to get them. It's just that right now items in the Zen Market are a lot more valuable to players than *anything* in-world right now (and I suspect it's the new Black Ice Resource and Booster packs).
Equating the raising of the cap to a bandaid was my line from last week. And with the egg event we saw just how much of an impact good AD sinks can have.
The cap exists to prevent the Zen Exchange values from exceeding an acceptable range. It puts a bare minimum value (minimum wage if you will) on AD. If reaching the cap meant it should just be raised then it shouldn't be there at all and that's definitely not on the table.
I love our community but some of them are very shortsighted. I mean there were literally people complaining that Zen cost too much so Cryptic should raise the cap. It was enough to drive this poor moderator's head spinning. But in the end the only people calling for the cap to be raised either lacked the foresight of the effects of the requests or likely wanted to sell Zen and get even more value from it.
As you said the heart of the issue is with AD sinks. If the sinks are not addressed it's just buying more time, likely very little at our current rate, before we reach any cap they raise it to. Cryptic developers aren't dumb and it doesn't really take a lot of consideration to know that is more logical deduction than doomsaying prediction.
Oh I agree. What they need is something players badly want but don't adversely effect game play. Guild Halls would be huge sinks. But that requires serious development so I doubt we can expect anything like that for some time. This is why a short term raise of AD/Zen trade cap would help.
Also people shouldn't view the devalue of AD as bad. Some people have accrued tens of millions and getting them to burn some is good. Also the biggest "protectors" of the cap are often those I just mentioned for obvious reasons. Free markets shouldn't have caps.
Right now the main thing players want AD for is to get Zen. Hell, many players don't even realize it is not the company selling the Zen and it is quite comical when they complain as if Cryptic is being greedy.
However in order for people to want to buy AD with Zen then it has to have some sort of useful exchange beyond making even more Zen. Which is where AD sinks come into play. The problem is except for very, very rare types of players and situations virtually every player sees the prices for AD sinks and gives them a blank stare.
Companion upgrades from Rare to Epic cost more than a full epic companion from the shop. This makes upgrading companions twice as expensive as actually buying them with Zen. Until the sinks offer at least a comparable value to Zen purchases the average player will continue to only view AD as a means to get Zen which not only causes a large amount of AD to be sold but a low amount of AD to be purchased.
I personally have over 100k zen.
I think raising the cap is a bad thing, but I'm not selling my zen until I hear one way or another. It would be foolish to sell at 500 only to have zen jump to 600-700 a day later.
The more astral diamonds one zen is worth, the more attractive spending actual honest-to-god cash becomes which if you'll recall is exactly what Cryptic and Perfect World want.
You can spout all the economic theory you want, but at the end of the day Neverwinter's exchange isn't a real exchange and does not behave like one in all respects.
The only real danger is that suddenly all the F2P players rage quit over prices. Since Neverwinter's prices are among some of the worst prices in any F2P title, and always have been, I think there is little danger of that. (At least not comparatively to how common 'rage quit' is now.)
I'm not saying Cryptic is planning on raising the cap today or tomorrow, or even in the near future, but it will happen eventually. That much is for certain.
Then your colors are shown, sir (or ma'am). Your agenda is is now clear. It's not about lack of sellers for you, it's about pure profit because you have to be dealing in the 100,000 Zen range to even see a dent in the difference in AD one or two points would yield. Perhaps you'd be better off playing the New York Stock exchange rather than the Zen exchange?
I mean, since there's a 5000 Zen CAP on Selling Zen per transaction (yeah, there's a CAP for that) - you have your work cut-out for you. I mean $100,000.00 worth of Zen isn't going to do you much good after the first few hundred or so (you *did* say you have over 100k Zen, right?). (Considering 1 Zen = $1.00 U.S. - you are proclaiming to have $100,000.00 in Zen... go figure).
Just a thought, mind you.
The debate about caps, raising them or not and whatnot is a moot point. @Spacejew nails it on the head in post #20 - that's all there needs to be said and it cannot be debunked. (Well, except for the last sentence which I personally waver on.)
I accept your advice in the same spirit in which it was given.
Cheapest key = 68,450 after ah cut = 61605.
Selling 113 zen at 500:1 = 56,500
So assuming I buy a 10-pack of keys, I earn over 5k more per key on the AH.
Tl/Dr: AH is giving an exchange rate of 545:1
So you're suggesting that you buy key's with Zen, then resell those key's for more diamonds than those key's are actually worth on the AH, and turn around and buy more zen with your diamonds for more keys.
This basically relies on a lot of people being very, very bad at math. I'm not saying it wouldn't work, it's just not the greatest bet in the world to make money in that way when a lot of people are going to see that you are clearly ripping them off.
They can simply open up the zen market and compare the price; which given the costs in question I'd like to think the majority of people aren't that stupid.
EDIT:
The AD value of one key is 62,500 at 500/1. (125 zen each)
They are selling for around 68,500 each.
Posting Fee of 1,360.
AH Fee of 6,850.
So you get 60,290 AD per key.
A 2,210 loss per key. (Which, when selling 10 key's, would be a 221 loss per key.)
(A returned Posting Fee would make the loss 850. I think.)
(Note to self: Do not accidentally use 685,000 instead of 68,500. It makes mathing wrong.)
Incorrect. One zen is $0.01. So 100k zen would only be $1,000.00.
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This has been the case for at least the past two weeks already. The peak price I have seen keys moving was 72k each.
Log into the game or gateway if you can't get into game and check the ah prices. It is happening right now and has been for a while.
Also, keys aren't always the best exchange rate.
Edit: I don't think it's stupidity as you said, or poor math. I think it's just people being lazy. They want something right now. Just like paying for delivery or room service doesn't mean you're getting ripped off, or that you're bad at math--it means you're willing to pay a bit more to not do the work yourself.
Posting fee is refunding if the item is bought out. Selling keys for more than the exchange rate is nothing new. It could be done before the exchange was maxed out. It's not something I personally did, it's taxing for not much reward but was a nice way to pay people shares. However if you're doing that now, then you're only contributing to #@~!ing up the exchange (which also makes it harder for you).
My math was way off given that I used 680,500 instead of 68,500. ^_^
It's still a loss at that price, but not a huge one. (Getting the posting fee back makes it a small profit in fact) I'm sure people are making nickel's and dime's in AD doing this, but you'd probably make more just farming T2 for salvage.
Over the past week or so i have been watching the AD exchange and the AH, The amount of keys entering the Auction House is so high it seems like people are trying to keep the demand for AD up so they can make a profit from the keys. As soon as the demand drops by a few thousand a few minutes later you see keys for sale in the AH.
What do you guys think?