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Kits chance to break(75%?)

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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    I have experienced these exact issues. I have 4 60s and run into this ^^ exact scenario many times.

    You actually haven't. Neither has noroblad. Humans are incredibly bad at remembering events like this. After a gaming session, we remember the times 5 kits failed in a row and forget the forty times it worked on the first try.

    Unless you actually log every success and failure in some fashion, it's all just selective memory.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    x3mta3xx3mta3x Member Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    You actually haven't. Neither has noroblad. Humans are incredibly bad at remembering events like this. After a gaming session, we remember the times 5 kits failed in a row and forget the forty times it worked on the first try.

    Unless you actually log every success and failure in some fashion, it's all just selective memory.

    Or I dont have to remember or rely on memory. I can just go by the amount of kits I have/dont have. I keep a stack(40) of each type, minus the class type I am currently on, for each character. At the end of my play sessions I always sell, put whatever items on AH, pray, and replenish my stock of kits, potions, repair kits, etc... Some times I notice that only one type is really low, which means alot of failures, other times its 2 types. Missing kits > memory. So something is absolutely wrong. Patterns are NOT random.
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    Or I dont have to remember or rely on memory. I can just go by the amount of kits I have/dont have. I keep a stack(40) of each type, minus the class type I am currently on, for each character. At the end of my play sessions I always sell, put whatever items on AH, pray, and replenish my stock of kits, potions, repair kits, etc... Some times I notice that only one type is really low, which means alot of failures, other times its 2 types. Missing kits > memory. So something is absolutely wrong. Patterns are NOT random.

    I give up. You don't understand probability either.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    x3mta3xx3mta3x Member Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    I give up. You don't understand probability either.

    You don't have to give up, just stop trying to defend a broken system. I fully understand probability but that is not the problem here. If you look at all the posts, they are all about the same thing... a string of failures of 4+ on one node, multiple times! That's not random, that IS A PATTERN. You can't have a pattern in a truly random state. So maybe it is YOU that does not understand, or wont come to the fact that something is obviously wrong with the system. In any case, it really does not matter cause it will take them 10yrs to find/fix this bug. So we might as well just get used to it.
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    norobladnoroblad Member Posts: 556 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    Or I dont have to remember or rely on memory. I can just go by the amount of kits I have/dont have. I keep a stack(40) of each type, minus the class type I am currently on, for each character. At the end of my play sessions I always sell, put whatever items on AH, pray, and replenish my stock of kits, potions, repair kits, etc... Some times I notice that only one type is really low, which means alot of failures, other times its 2 types. Missing kits > memory. So something is absolutely wrong. Patterns are NOT random.

    Exactly. I know how many kits I had; I topped off before the session as I was, after all, farming nodes. After somewhere between 45 min to an hour, where on the average I was probably getting 1 node every 2 min, I used up at least 25-30 of each type of kit. That is what, 4 types (not including the one I can do for free with 100% success rate) or 100 or so kits consumed on 30, maybe 40 tops, nodes. Its a small sample size but that is not even in the ballpark of a 75% success rate.

    I can do it again and write it down for the exact values, maybe this weekend I will do that if I get bored enough. Maybe some other folks can do it too, all you have to do is track how many kits you have and how many failures. Remember to increment if you loot any kits though.
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    That's not random, that IS A PATTERN.

    This alone proves that you don't understand probability. Streaks occur in random data. Indeed, if they did not, it would not be random.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    noroblad wrote: »
    I can do it again and write it down for the exact values, maybe this weekend I will do that if I get bored enough. Maybe some other folks can do it too, all you have to do is track how many kits you have and how many failures. Remember to increment if you loot any kits though.

    Because of the looting factor, it's a really bad methodology to just track the number of kits.

    Do the real data-collection and track each trial.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    edge1986edge1986 Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 647 Bounty Hunter
    edited June 2013
    daghene wrote: »


    Hi there guys, let me go straight to the point.

    The kits(religion, arcana, dungeoneering etc) says they have a 75% chance which is not specified but by common sense it means 75% chance to work.

    Ok, then why am i level 20 and so far the kits had a 90% to break?

    P.s. funny, as i wrote this i used a religion one(i'm a rogue) and it worked so the chance to break dropped to 89,9% "only" :P


    I notice they work more than they fail. RNG is RNG. Yawn.

    /thread
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    broherdreadbroherdread Member Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    Or I dont have to remember or rely on memory. I can just go by the amount of kits I have/dont have. I keep a stack(40) of each type, minus the class type I am currently on, for each character. At the end of my play sessions I always sell, put whatever items on AH, pray, and replenish my stock of kits, potions, repair kits, etc... Some times I notice that only one type is really low, which means alot of failures, other times its 2 types. Missing kits > memory. So something is absolutely wrong. Patterns are NOT random.

    so you keep track you the ones you have used. that doesn't help at all because the number of nodes isnt recorded or the type. They are not evenly disturbed in the zones so using one kit more than others means nothing.

    I have in my way to 60 used 142 kits which 32 of them broke. 32/142 is 22.5%. and under most peoples logic in this thread it is now fact that it is bugged and is a higher a success rate than stated.
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    norobladnoroblad Member Posts: 556 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    This alone proves that you don't understand probability. Streaks occur in random data. Indeed, if they did not, it would not be random.

    indeed. But consistent streaks are not likely. If I randomly pick 10 values out of 100 and get 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 ... the odds of that happening exist, but are not likely. it is one possible outcome of many, and there are a lot more other outcomes so getting this particular one is unlikely. If it happens once, you shrug it off. If it happens 20 times out of 100, you begin to question something.
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    x3mta3xx3mta3x Member Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    This alone proves that you don't understand probability. Streaks occur in random data. Indeed, if they did not, it would not be random.

    OMG. Yes a RANDOM STREAK could occur, but MANY people with the EXACT same results is NOT a streak, it's a PATTERN. Wow, I really hope that you can actually grasp this concept, for this alone proves that you don't understand probability or refuse to see the issue.
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    x3mta3xx3mta3x Member Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    noroblad wrote: »
    indeed. But consistent streaks are not likely. If I randomly pick 10 values out of 100 and get 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 ... the odds of that happening exist, but are not likely. it is one possible outcome of many, and there are a lot more other outcomes so getting this particular one is unlikely. If it happens once, you shrug it off. If it happens 20 times out of 100, you begin to question something.

    Exactly this.
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    norobladnoroblad Member Posts: 556 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    well, I am for the science. I will make an effort to run a valid test then.
    Type does not matter if the flaw is in the random stream. But I can record that too. Could be it is only nature kits.

    I did not use one kit significantly more than another though. All types were drained to nearly zero and there is no way I hit anything like 75 nodes in that time frame, yet 100 were used. At best I hit half that many. Well, speculation is worthless --- let me do it the right way.
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    OMG. Yes a RANDOM STREAK could occur, but MANY people with the EXACT same results is NOT a streak, it's a PATTERN. Wow, I really hope that you can actually grasp this concept, for this alone proves that you don't understand probability or refuse to see the issue.

    Except that many people are not having the exact same result. You have many people reporting very different results that anecdotally have some common elements. This is an entirely useless observation.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    noroblad wrote: »
    well, I am for the science. I will make an effort to run a valid test then.
    Type does not matter if the flaw is in the random stream. But I can record that too. Could be it is only nature kits.

    I did not use one kit significantly more than another though. All types were drained to nearly zero and there is no way I hit anything like 75 nodes in that time frame, yet 100 were used. At best I hit half that many. Well, speculation is worthless --- let me do it the right way.

    I look forward to your results. If I find the time to play this weekend, I'll record my results too.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    x3mta3xx3mta3x Member Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    so you keep track you the ones you have used. that doesn't help at all because the number of nodes isnt recorded or the type. They are not evenly disturbed in the zones so using one kit more than others means nothing.

    I have in my way to 60 used 142 kits which 32 of them broke. 32/142 is 22.5%. and under most peoples logic in this thread it is now fact that it is bugged and is a higher a success rate than stated.

    First off your conclusion is skewed because as you level the % of success changes. If at lvl 10 you harvested 100 nodes, you would have a very high success rate compared to lvl 20. So what you are proposing is not a true test of the system.
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    x3mta3xx3mta3x Member Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    Except that many people are not having the exact same result. You have many people reporting very different results that anecdotally have some common elements. This is an entirely useless observation.

    I agree somewhat, as it is useless to say that there is no problem. :)
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    First off your conclusion is skewed because as you level the % of success changes. If at lvl 10 you harvested 100 nodes, you would have a very high success rate compared to lvl 20. So what you are proposing is not a true test of the system.

    The only two success percentages I've seen is 75% and 65%. At level 10 and level 20, you're still seeing almost entirely 75% nodes. The only 65% tests I recall through level 20 are the ogre door in the Tower district landscape and the rock in the Spellplague tower cave section.

    So I don't see any basis to say that success at 10 is going to be very high compared to 20.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    x3mta3x wrote: »
    I agree somewhat, as it is useless to say that there is no problem. :)

    On the contrary, that is the only useful thing that can be said at this point, as the only actual data presented shows that there is no problem.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    elfkicker5000elfkicker5000 Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 23 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    I am having a hard time believing so many people like the OP with "programming" experience seem to really not understand how probability works. I work in the education field and this just makes me very sad. Just...wow. Not a useful addition to the thread, I know, but I just had to comment- it is kind of blowing my mind.
    Thanks, Dave and Gary.
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    broherdreadbroherdread Member Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    lol I stated what I found and drew wild conclusions from it cause that's what everyone that is supporting this idea is doing.

    Once you show me a spreadsheet with a minimum of 1000 data points (I would prefer 10000) than we can start talking about if the success rate is 75% or 65% or 20% until then nothing can be concluded.
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    sasheriasasheria Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild Users Posts: 1 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    I am having a hard time believing so many people like the OP with "programming" experience seem to really not understand how probability works. I work in the education field and this just makes me very sad. Just...wow. Not a useful addition to the thread, I know, but I just had to comment- it is kind of blowing my mind.

    That is the problem with random numbers. they are just random. You can have a bad streak.
    To grow old is inevitable, to grow up is optional.
    Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    lol I stated what I found and drew wild conclusions from it cause that's what everyone that is supporting this idea is doing.

    Once you show me a spreadsheet with a minimum of 1000 data points (I would prefer 10000) than we can start talking about if the success rate is 75% or 65% or 20% until then nothing can be concluded.

    You need a lot of data points to say what the success percentage is. However, you don't need anywhere near that many to determine is something is off.

    If the success rate is 75%, the chance of failing 50 out of 100 is roughly 1:22,000,000. That would be a pretty significant observation.

    (On the other hand, if the success rate is 65%, the chance of failing 50 out of 100 is only 1:1,400. So proper data collection is a must, especially with regards to what the pop-up says.)
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    daghenedaghene Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 28 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    The quantity of idiots on this forum defending a broken system is way too much, i think i'll ignore my own thread.

    Point out there's a problem for everyone to enjoy the game more = marked as an idiot who "doesn't understand probability" even though i'm a programmer myself.

    Thanks guys, really. Keep playing with a broken system, hope it happens to any of you as much as it happened to me and the others.

    I'll leave with one last thing, which i already stated: The fact that something is PROGRAMMED(read this 20 times before even thinking about hitting the "reply" button) to work X number of times +- a MINOR and SLIGHT luck factor means it HAS TO ABSOLUTELY WORK THAT X AMOUNT OF TIME +- a REALLY SUPER DUPER MINOR luck factor.

    If you still think this is realy life and it still should happen to have a break streak of 20 kits go on, hope you enjoy your broken kits.
    I am having a hard time believing so many people like the OP with "programming" experience seem to really not understand how probability works. I work in the education field and this just makes me very sad. Just...wow. Not a useful addition to the thread, I know, but I just had to comment- it is kind of blowing my mind.

    And people like you makes ME sad.

    It doesn't take a computer genius. Life hasn't been programmed so tossing a coin is a pure chaos and luck thing, put it what you want.
    Programming a computer makes it do EXACTLY what you said.

    You say: "hey computer when a player clicks it has to work 7 times out of 10".
    And you add: "but let's add a 1-4 roll(example) to that number up or down to help with the break and luck factor".

    If you DON'T program the second statement the computer will still make things work 75% plus a MINOR change based on the algorytm that calculates that random extraction based on the language/system the game has been programmed in.

    Then, again, if the system is programmed correctly the algorytm will tend to output positive results in the 75% of the cases, period.

    If you don't understand this i don't get how you became an educator really.

    The community here sucks it seems, i'm just pointing out a clear error or bug in the kits programming and you talk about real life probability(again, life ain't a computer programmed thing) and tell people they don't understand.

    Maybe it's you that don't understand because you're not programmers?

    Meh, i'll just pass on from now on.
    It seems like you insist to play a worse game, since as i said i didn't have all these problems with my other character so it may be a random bug on some..or at least they should change that "works 75% of the time" description.

    But please, go on and convince yourselves the game is ok even with clear bugs/mistakes.

    I wonder what the fu*k the beta state is here for then.
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    daghene wrote: »
    You say: "hey computer when a player clicks it has to work 7 times out of 10".
    And you add: "but let's add a 1-4 roll(example) to that number up or down to help with the break and luck factor".

    I don't even know what you're saying here, but whatever it is, it has nothing to do with a random roll system that would be used in a game.

    If you're actually a programmer, just provide some pseudo-code, because you're not communicating clearly.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    daghenedaghene Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 28 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    I don't even know what you're saying here, but whatever it is, it has nothing to do with a random roll system that would be used in a game.

    If you're actually a programmer, just provide some pseudo-code, because you're not communicating clearly.

    That sentence clarifies how much you know about programming and computer which, no offense, should be around 0 out of 100.
    You can't tell "provide some pseudo-code" because:

    A) every language has its own code(and i don't know how they programmed the game)
    B) even if i knew the language as i already said i don't know which algorytm they're using to make the success factor work

    And yes, i communicated clearly enough when i said "the computer makes only what you tell him to do", nothing more nothing less, so if you tell him to give loot 7 times out of 10 it has to be that way because the thing you non-programmer guys call "the luck factor" doesn't exist in computers.

    The "luck factor" is a sequence of code which actually forces the programm to work 7 times out of 10, period. It's not luck, it's not real life, it's not like a coin toss.

    It's a computer, it works as you want it to do(if you programmed everything right and there's no bugs).

    Maybe i had too much expectations from you guys but i didn't want some random philosophic answers from people who don't understand how programming works.
    I wanted some more data and maybe the opinion of tech guys who knows how a precentage PROGRAMMED event works.

    If you still wanna talk about the rethoric and philosophical aspect of coin tosses, laws of big numbers, order and chaos, gods and stuff please don't post here because i've already explained more than once this is a different thing.
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    selethorselethor Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    Look, it's obvious to anyone with any understanding of probability that you have no idea what you are talking about. That doesn't mean you are wrong, of course. You could still be right that there's something wrong even though you have no idea what you are talking about, but you won't be able to convince anyone with those bad arguments.
    Yes, program code may have bugs in it. In fact more often then not, it does. Random number generators are not rocket science though, these things are pretty basic and usually imported from external libraries.
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    elessymelessym Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    daghene wrote: »
    That sentence clarifies how much you know about programming and computer which, no offense, should be around 0 out of 100.
    You can't tell "provide some pseudo-code" because:

    A) every language has its own code(and i don't know how they programmed the game)
    B) even if i knew the language as i already said i don't know which algorytm they're using to make the success factor work

    And yes, i communicated clearly enough when i said "the computer makes only what you tell him to do", nothing more nothing less, so if you tell him to give loot 7 times out of 10 it has to be that way because the thing you non-programmer guys call "the luck factor" doesn't exist in computers.

    The "luck factor" is a sequence of code which actually forces the programm to work 7 times out of 10, period. It's not luck, it's not real life, it's not like a coin toss.

    It's a computer, it works as you want it to do(if you programmed everything right and there's no bugs).

    Maybe i had too much expectations from you guys but i didn't want some random philosophic answers from people who don't understand how programming works.
    I wanted some more data and maybe the opinion of tech guys who knows how a precentage PROGRAMMED event works.

    If you still wanna talk about the rethoric and philosophical aspect of coin tosses, laws of big numbers, order and chaos, gods and stuff please don't post here because i've already explained more than once this is a different thing.

    You know nothing about programming. Here's the pseudo code you said is impossible to provide:
    success_rate = 0.75
    if rnd(0) > success_rate then KIT_FAIL else KIT_SUCCESS

    "sequence of code". That's priceless.
    "Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
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    jorifice1jorifice1 Member Posts: 1,042 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    I know that this may seem to be a bit off topic and I have no meaningful programming experience. But what I DO have is about four or so years of Cryptic GAMING experience. It just is not unheard of for one character to, for some reason or another, not be able to function in some part of the game. I have probably nearly 60 toons altogether in the Cryptic Family and have seen some screwy things. I've even had to erase a few on Champs because of strange bugs that existed only on the one character and made the game unplayable. So my advice? Try a new toon. If you get more normal results on that one then shelve the malfunctioning toon until after a patch. See if that changes anything (even if it isn't in the notes, well, things happen). You can try erasing your local content and downloading the game again. Or just use the toon as a mule and Crafting Farmer. You could try looking up the phrase "Cryptic Math" in one of the other forums to get some insight into how they actually calculate things in their games. Often it bears no resemblance to what one would think would be the right way to do it.

    'Wen considered the nature of time and understood that the universe is, instant by instant, recreated anew. Therefore, he understood, there is in truth no past, only a memory of the past. Blink your eyes, and the world you see next did not exist when you closed them. Therefore, he said, the only appropriate state of the mind is surprise. The only appropriate state of the heart is joy. The sky you see now, you have never seen before. The perfect moment is now. Be glad of it.' Terry Pratchet The Thief Of Time
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    daghenedaghene Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 28 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    elessym wrote: »
    You know nothing about programming. Here's the pseudo code you said is impossible to provide:

    "sequence of code". That's priceless.

    I didn't say it was impossible, you can't even read and you pretend to explain me how much i know about programming.

    Also i don't get what sucks so much in your guys life to come here and pretend to act like people's stupid.
    I reported an issue that's happening to me and makes me NOT enjoy the game as it should and you all go like "you can't understand, philosophy here, rethoric there, blablabla".

    Geez, calm the fu*k down, breathe and THEN post.

    I'm seriously done with people like you, will ignore the thread from now one.

    Thanks for ruining the whole thing instead to try to argue like civilizated people, hope you're proud you ruined my mood.

    Enjoy the game.
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