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Kits chance to break(75%?)
daghene
Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 28 Arc User
Hi there guys, let me go straight to the point.
The kits(religion, arcana, dungeoneering etc) says they have a 75% chance which is not specified but by common sense it means 75% chance to work.
Ok, then why am i level 20 and so far the kits had a 90% to break?
P.s. funny, as i wrote this i used a religion one(i'm a rogue) and it worked so the chance to break dropped to 89,9% "only" :P
Post edited by daghene on
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This is just wrong, at least they shouldn't write "75% of success" because when i red that i went like "nice, most time it will work!" and then, as i said, i'm sure that 9 times out of 10 i break the kit.
Actually, of all the kits i found on my way to 20 i think i didn't get to work more than 10.
If it's 90% of the kits broken on the way to level 20 you can guess it's not about bad luck, but there's something wrong with the game.
Using 10 kit's doesn't mean you'll hit 6 or 7.
In fact it looks like it's been changed down to 65% success rate if you hover over a kit in your inventory it tells you...
The 75% one is the % you read when attempting to use a kit, so it's just weird that i got so many failures.
I will update the post as soon as i'll try more kits but i'm quite sure there's something strange going on with the disaplyed percentage and the true one.
I think you must be hovering your mouse over different kits in a different inventory and possibly a different game from what I'm playing because whenever I hover my mouse over any of the kits in my inventory the tooltip text clearly says "blah blah blah blah blah blah has a a 65% chance of sucess"
I think it is 75% and the 65% could be a mistake since in the patch notes it says they will be correcting it.
"Skill Kits now show the correct success rate in their flavor text."
Waiting for a cool sig T.T
Quite possibly I haven't had looked at the patch notes but the tooltip text is definitely there.
Thx for the heads up on the discrepancy though.
Np. There are a lot of tooltip mistakes ingame and it seems they are correcting a lot of those in the upcoming patch. Btw, you should take a look at the notes. There are some good stuff on the way (along with some bad stuff as well xD)
Waiting for a cool sig T.T
You haven't really missed out anyways. The loot from nodes is worthless before lvl 30-40 areas because the enchantments are so low-rank and early profession materials are abundant. I'd recommend buying a few dozen of each profession kit for later zones so that you can loot every node you find, and see if the probability feels any better when you have more than one or two tries.
If it's like xiolin says it's 75%, fact is it still should be more yes than no even if it was 65 and to me it's alway a no-go.
1) You said the success rate is not displayed when you hover your cursor over the kit in your inventory when it does.
2) You clearly have no understanding of how probability works.
/thread
I don't get what your problem is, really.
I'm talking about a personal experience i had in the past three days and you seem to write everything just to say i'm wrong, or i red wrong, or i'm not understanding something or wathever.
I'm not stupid and i play MMORPG's since ages, so i know how these things SHOULD work.
BTW quick-update.
I re-logged and now it displays the percent, which shows as 65% and it's WRONG as another user already said(i also found the patch note regarding this and also you see the percent when you find a node in the map, i don't get why you should check the inventory too and you didn't notice how the percents are different).
Also, and more important, i didn't know you had a degree in probability but it takes common sense to know that if something CAN work at a 75% rate, which is around 7 times out of 10 or a bit more, having 35 kits destroyed on 40 means the displayed percentage(even it was 65) is not the true one.
That may be the case, the nodes i was talking about anyway were slightly lower than mine.
My degree's in computing not in probability but more importantly you don't need a degree in anything to understand a simple concept.
Probability has no memory and it has nothing to do with your expectations or 7 out of 10 or any other irrelevant arbitrary multiple roll example you use to try and convince yourself that you have a legitimate point.
If someone else has any clue about why i'm still breaking so many it would be much appreciated.
but ( & this is the huge rub ) pseudo-random number generators are not all that random in small samples (1 - 100) but are over larger samples (1 million & up),
so over your (in-game) lifetime it is likely to average out but on any given day you could have long runs of broken kits or long runs of success!
What Class Are You?
It could be one of many things. 2 likely issues:
the computer random number problem. Computers cannot actually make random numbers and worse still a lot of "built in" "random" number generators took "speed over quality" --- meaning the computation to crank out the next number is very fast but the resulting numbers can have patterns or incorrect distributions etc. Long story short, it could be possible to roll 100 10 times in a row (if rolling from 0-100 and needing to be below 75). Something that would be possible but unlikely with ideal, theoretical random values becomes possible and not even uncommon with flawed random streams.
or it could just be a dumb bug that once in a while gives you a 25% chance instead of 75% under some set of conditions.
I'm glad someone get's it, you could flip a coin all day long and have it land heads up everytime but it doesn't mean the chance of it landing heads or tails is not 50/50 in a controlled environment.
It could well be 'time-based' but not in the way you think, the 'seed' for a lot of pseudo-random number generators is taken from the PC clock in many algorithms. (Its a hell of a lot more complex than "what's the time now", but it's a good start point for acceptable random numbers)
What Class Are You?
I'll continue to keep the numbers on then, cause so far it's been a huge break loss and on a new character at lower levels it shouldn't be this way. I don't get the crafting mats due to this and i have to level with the slow and small things, which shouldn't happen early on.
^^^ THIS!
There's not much to argue about. I know there's a luck factor and no one should discuss that.
Fact is there's too much people breaking tons of kits on even the early level nodes, and that makes the 75% rate totally wrong so they're either hiding us the true one for some reason OR they're bugged.
It's not about "getting this". You probably don't get that a coin is ruled by random factors only, in these games the success rate is decided by the developers(which is something YOU still don't get).
If they state the kit has a 75% rate the kit ABSOLUTELY NEEDS TO HAVE A 75% RATE.
Minor factor should change the success rate IN A MINOR WAY ONLY, but it should still be around 75% rate.
Maybe this time you got it, since they state and programmed the whole thing to be around, 75% success rate(i'm not saying it has to be exactly like that, just slight changes) something is bugged and it doesn't take a genius to understand that..OR i'm missing something, which is not the probability and coin stuff you're talking about because, again, in these games they PROGRAM something to have that success rate and add some minor luck factor just not to have an exact rate as stated.
/thread
P.S. If you keep the numbers, why don't you post them?
And honestly it should be less at most 50% if not 40%, this whole who needs X class we'll just bring our kits kinda takes the D&D out of it.
If you read i kept the numbers, why didn't you also read i posted them? The 35 kits broken till level 20 on 40(now 37/43) wasn't random stuff.
I totally agree with this. I'm not arguing about the fact i want more drops, i am a D&D player myself and having a class-only thing in the party is great.
Fact is most of the time people like me quests alone and having the few kits break everytime is just wrong.
I still agree they should lower it but only if it works as they program it to behave.
You are welcome.