That doesn't apply when a thing is programmed to be around a defined percentage.
And that makes two.
I'm a programmer myself and i've already programmed percentage stuff which works around that exact percentage. Never had so much weird results with my programs, which were probably simplier but still, again, it's a thing the developers decide and not a totally random thing so the law of large numbers doesn't apply.
I think it's pretty obvious they don't want you farming nodes in the first place.
I didn't say it isn't. I just said "Pefrect World please be correct about your percentages or tell us how the math behind the roll program works, because this is definitely NOT a 75% succes rate percentage thing".
QUICK UPDATE!
Now i'm in a higher level zone.
Tried 5 nodes, 3 worked 2 didn't. I'll keep you updated, i'm around level 22.
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clortbagsMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
Not trying to be argumentative but the law of large numbers certainly does apply to pseudo random number generation as well as real world examples.
Yeah i know, fact is this is a computer programmed thing hence the displayed percentage = the real one you get in game +- some minor tweaks to add the luck factor.
I wanted to understand if it was just me but seeing people wasting 10-15 kits on mid game nodes makes it clear that something's bugged, also because everything happened to me before level 20 and everyone agrees it's the higher nodes that may cause problems, not the newbie ones.
If you are really having kits break nine times out of ten, you should send a bug report.
I will do it after my coffee break, at least to ask the guys from Perfectworld what's going on!
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dirtyhookMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
edited June 2013
Probability only works consistently on large volume of attempts.
The more attempts you make the closer your success rate will move towards the 75% (or 65% whichever it is).
So in 100 attempts you might have a 50% success rate, but at 5000 you are more likely to be around 75.
I am not saying you are wrong though, my support for you comes from fusing. I have failed fusing rank 1's (supposed to be 95% success rate) 7 times in a row. lol I feel like I fail more often than not on anything below rank 5.
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clortbagsMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
Probability only works consistently on large volume of attempts.
The more attempts you make the closer your success rate will move towards the 75% (or 65% whichever it is).
So in 100 attempts you might have a 50% success rate, but at 5000 you are more likely to be around 75.
I am not saying you are wrong though, my support for you comes from fusing. I have failed fusing rank 1's (supposed to be 95% success rate) 7 times in a row. lol I feel like I fail more often than not on anything below rank 5.
You think that's frustrating just wait until you've hit level 20 in one of your crafting trees and you've got a maximum 60% chance of successfully crafting a rank 3 shirt / pants when it costs close to 150k diamonds for the mats.
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dagheneMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 28Arc User
You think that's frustrating just wait until you've hit level 20 in one of your crafting trees and you've got a maximum 60% chance of successfully crafting a rank 3 shirt / pants when it costs close to 150k diamonds for the mats.
I know, we're on the same boat..i just thought this boat didn't start to sink before level 10 .-.
By the way when PW will answer me i'll update the thread!
i find it funny that people misunderstand words probability and statistics. your numbers are just your statistics and very low i would say cause in world of statistics we are talking about billions not tens. if you open about 10000 nodes and you will still have such big portion of broken kits then we could talk about a bug. until then its just you are unlucky.
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ausdoerrtMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
i find it funny that people misunderstand words probability and statistics.
I found it funny how people don't read the threads.
I already said, as a programmer myself, that for a computer-programmed percentage(and not a real life one completely ruled by chaos and luck) if they say that's the percentage then it should be around that number, meaning non less than 6 working kits out of 10.
I won't even bother saying this anymore, the funny thing is how stupid people is comparing life to a game in which the "gods" are the developers and they actually insert the numbers in the game manually, then display them, and then they work just as expected.
43 kits is anecdotal evidence. Until you get a sample size of at least couple hundred, there's nothing to discuss, really.
This is terribly wrong.
The higher you go with the levels the lower the percentage of the kits working becomes. If my whole experience in the 75% tier area results in a 15% then it makes it a 15% for me and that's enough to be discussed.
Then, again, a lot of people said they broke even 15 kits on the SAME node with a similar displayed percentage. If that's not enough to you then feel free to ignore this thread, for others who actually consider their numbers bringing data to the table and confirming this opinion it's kinda clear the nodes are either bugged(found many i couldn't even use my kit on because they were glowing but i couldn't interact with them) or the programmed percentage is lower but they display a higher one for some reason.
Random is random. I'm level 60 now and all throughout the game, I've succeeded more often than not (a lot more, actually) when using skill kits. Someone will always have bad luck, that's the whole point of RNG.
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dagheneMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 28Arc User
dagheneMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 28Arc User
edited June 2013
Yeah but it may be bugged, i had another character and didn't have a single problem with this till level 15.
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xenobiasMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero UsersPosts: 26Arc User
edited June 2013
I don't have any concrete information but it seems that the percentage to work is effected by proximity. I have found if my attempt begins in failure I will fail at least 3 times but more like 5 to 8 times unless I move to a different stand point in relation to the node.
So after my second failure I move and it works. How does this happen if it's simply coded to a percentage?
They should allow for some training in relation to using kits , or make it like fusing were in higher level content it becomes harder to unlock a node but that node gives rarer things.
Or couple each node type to a particular stat. So while you have a 100% chance on nodes within your class you may be able to get a 90% chance on a second type.
Random is random. I'm level 60 now and all throughout the game, I've succeeded more often than not (a lot more, actually) when using skill kits. Someone will always have bad luck, that's the whole point of RNG.
Bad luck happens, sure. And yes, you need a ton of samples to do any meaningful statistics. But let me explain the issue so you can see that it is NOT luck but either a bug or a nonrandom number generator flaw. The most notable instance of this, I was eating my supper, waiting for my wife to join me, and just farming the nodes in a loop. I had 30 of each type of kit. In about 45 min most of my kits were gone because every third or fourth node took more than 3 kits to open. Consistently. At least twice that I took note of, 5 kits were used on one node; I cannot recall if that was 5th = success or 6th = success but I did start counting.
1 in 4 chance of fail makes failure not rare nor unusual. 2 in a row is even reasonable. 3+ in a row once is not going to be unheard of either, but that is getting on up there into the "rather unlikely, maybe once a week or once a month" realm. 5 in a row twice in one night is "extremely unlikely". More than 3 in a row broken more than 50 times in one hour is beyond bad luck, there is a flaw somewhere. Period. The odds of that happening certainly exist, but I have a better chance of being hit by lightning. Even if you say, well it happened the once, --- I have had similar experiences on more than 4 nights, though not quite as many in so short a timeframe. And reading here, others have had the same. Bad luck of a statistical outlier scenario is rapidly becoming an unreasonable explanation.
I done a bit of game computing back in the day of basic - basically it was for a % chance of something happening the computer randomly generates a number.
EG:
Line 10 Print <RMD> 1 to 100
Line 20 if <RMD> is > 75 then go to line 40 if not got to line 30
Line 30 goto line 10
Line 40 <Print> You have achieved the Accomplishment
Line 50 END
If you can follow the Logic of the BASIC computer Language then you will see what is happening (It is all Random) - Unless of course they play with the numbers -
Also I have never failed more the twice in a row and basically I now vendor trash them for room anyhow except for Thievery - which can be used to open some doors (have Dungeonering generic)
Cheers
Genus Draco Fad and the Muster@Jintortle
ID: NW-DD5FLOBTJ Cult of the Dragon Foundry Contest - Please participate and vote for your favourite - 26/6/2014 contest rating begins.
Sir Camps A Lot. Mr SlingShot Boom. XX Phantasmagorical. Jinn Dragonfeast.
SlingShot Boom Jr. Jocan Traders. Little Lord Forgatty, Dwarf Mean and introducing Necro Torquemada (The Warlock)
And humans have notoriously bad intuition when it comes to statistics and percentages. The math is wonky and our memory is selective.
For example, at a 75% success rate, in order to successfully loot 100 nodes, you should expect to fail an average of 33.3 times. Why 33.3? Why not 25? Because math. Also, that's an average with a very shallow distribution curve, meaning you should expect a lot of variation. Also, every 1 in 16 of the nodes will require at least 3 attempts to loot.
Never trust your gut feeling when it comes to statistics and percentages. They're treacherous beasts.
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ausdoerrtMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
Then, again, a lot of people said they broke even 15 kits on the SAME node with a similar displayed percentage. If that's not enough to you then feel free to ignore this thread, for others who actually consider their numbers bringing data to the table and confirming this opinion it's kinda clear the nodes are either bugged(found many i couldn't even use my kit on because they were glowing but i couldn't interact with them) or the programmed percentage is lower but they display a higher one for some reason.
I mean, if that works for you, knock yourself out
All I can say, these discussions surface constantly in videogames especially in MMOs, and very rarely does anyone actually catch an error. I can understand your suspicions that there's something wrong, but unless you offer solid proof, it can't be taken seriously. There's no real "data" in this thread - not any that can be used for anything, that is. With that sample size, the margin of error is silly big.
Not to mention, according to my anecdotal evidence, the % roughly matches. And I've never been unlucky enough to break more than 3 in a row. So maybe there's something wrong with your character - get at least few hundred samples from that toon and any alt and then bug report if you find something broken.
I done a bit of game computing back in the day of basic - basically it was for a % chance of something happening the computer randomly generates a number.
EG:
Line 10 Print <RMD> 1 to 100
Line 20 if <RMD> is > 75 then go to line 40 if not got to line 30
Line 30 goto line 10
Line 40 <Print> You have achieved the Accomplishment
Line 50 END
If you can follow the Logic of the BASIC computer Language then you will see what is happening (It is all Random) - Unless of course they play with the numbers -
Also I have never failed more the twice in a row and basically I now vendor trash them for room anyhow except for Thievery - which can be used to open some doors (have Dungeonering generic)
Cheers
if only. Unfortunately its probably a class for the character interacting with a class for the random numbers interacting with a class for the node objects interacting with a class for the kit objects ..... modern code is bloated and bloat makes places for bugs to hide. The code to do that simple task probably bloats out to half a page or more of junk, with a couple of lines doing the actual work but 40 more lines doing the object oriented dance.
I have had occasions when 8 to 10 have broken at one place followed by the same at another. It also seems to happen at certain nodes. Bert guess is that it isn't really random and has some tendency to 'stick'.
Same here... I don't know if it was server lag, random number seeding, etc but I had one node break my tool 6 times in a row which if you look at it from a probability stand point I should run out and buy a LOTTERY TICKET!
I've found that the kits also fail most of the time, but that doesn't mean it isn't set up that way.
Sometimes, as an example, when they do the coding for these types things they make it so that 0-24 will be fail and 25-99 will succeed when it should be set up so that 0-2 = true, 3 = false, 4-6 = true, 7 = false, and so on. Both are 75% success but the latter will be more accurate.
Same here... I don't know if it was server lag, random number seeding, etc but I had one node break my tool 6 times in a row which if you look at it from a probability stand point I should run out and buy a LOTTERY TICKET!
/sigh
Only if you think that 1 in 4000 lottery tickets hits the jackpot!
Tongue in cheek aside, that's how often you should expect to see that. At a 75% success rate, on average, 1 in 4096 nodes should fail 6 or more times in a row.
Edit: By the way, this can also be interpreted as, for example, "every 16th player you run into on your travels through Neverwinter will have had the same or worse happen to them within their first 250 resource nodes or less."
So, as you can see, you're not even that unlucky. Quite a few players have had your misfortune and worse. As ought to be expected from a random event with 75% chance of success. But our minds just aren't equipped to see this intuitively... we have to crunch some numbers to become aware of it.
I'll say it again: Statistics are treacherous beasts... never trust your gut feeling about them.
For me it feels time related and this could purely be psychological. If you hit a node and it fails, it feels that most of the time, the 2nd will also fail and a very good chance of the 3rd. However, In my experience, the actual initial fail rate is much lower than the OP is having, I'd say at a guess for me 7 or 8 out 10 tries i get a success first time.
On a similar note with the random generator, ever noticed that nightmare horses appear to be won in batches? It's pretty rare to see the spam only once in a given time, when you see one, you normally see 2 or 3 others right behind it.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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eqballzzMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
edited June 2013
What part of *random* number generator is unclear? It's random. Flipping a coin is a 50/50 chance each time you flip the coin. How many times in a row it comes up heads has no relation whatsoever to the next time you flip the coin so if you do it 10 times and it comes up heads every time it doesn't mean there is a greater % chance it will be tails just because it was heads 10 times in a row. It's *always* 50% each time you flip. By the same token, just because you got unlucky and had a streak of failures doesn't change the % chance. Like has been mentioned before you would need a much larger sample to see the true % average out.
This doesn't mean there isn't a bug in the code but I haven't seen anything unusual in-game indicating that. Sometimes it fails many times in a row and other times it doesn't. Seems to be working normal. Maybe you are just really unlucky.
There is always an algorithm used in creating a random number generator, because of this, the result will never actually be random, it does get close but it isn't 100% random.
Where flipping a coin may seem to have a 50/50 chance because it only has two sides, the results are not normally 50/50, there are other factors that affects the results.
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dagheneMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 28Arc User
Bad luck happens, sure. And yes, you need a ton of samples to do any meaningful statistics. But let me explain the issue so you can see that it is NOT luck but either a bug or a nonrandom number generator flaw. The most notable instance of this, I was eating my supper, waiting for my wife to join me, and just farming the nodes in a loop. I had 30 of each type of kit. In about 45 min most of my kits were gone because every third or fourth node took more than 3 kits to open. Consistently. At least twice that I took note of, 5 kits were used on one node; I cannot recall if that was 5th = success or 6th = success but I did start counting.
1 in 4 chance of fail makes failure not rare nor unusual. 2 in a row is even reasonable. 3+ in a row once is not going to be unheard of either, but that is getting on up there into the "rather unlikely, maybe once a week or once a month" realm. 5 in a row twice in one night is "extremely unlikely". More than 3 in a row broken more than 50 times in one hour is beyond bad luck, there is a flaw somewhere. Period. The odds of that happening certainly exist, but I have a better chance of being hit by lightning. Even if you say, well it happened the once, --- I have had similar experiences on more than 4 nights, though not quite as many in so short a timeframe. And reading here, others have had the same. Bad luck of a statistical outlier scenario is rapidly becoming an unreasonable explanation.
This!
Finally someone who tested on his own.
I'm not talking because it felt that i lost some kits.
I'm talking because until now basically all of my kits broken, i've had luck with 10 i guess and if you consider how much you find until level 25 that's TONS of destroyed kits!
The rethoric speech guys can talk as much as they want but i've tested it, tracked down some numbers and talked with other people who had the same exact problem.
Again, i wrote to PW waiting for an answer and i hope they have a decent one.
Also if it's just random they still shoud do something to help the percentages go close to that 75%, or just type in the description "it may work, it may broke, who knows?".
I already said, as a programmer myself, that for a computer-programmed percentage(and not a real life one completely ruled by chaos and luck) if they say that's the percentage then it should be around that number, meaning non less than 6 working kits out of 10
Sorry, but this statement alone proves that you have absolutely no understanding of probability.
"Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
Bad luck happens, sure. And yes, you need a ton of samples to do any meaningful statistics. But let me explain the issue so you can see that it is NOT luck but either a bug or a nonrandom number generator flaw. The most notable instance of this, I was eating my supper, waiting for my wife to join me, and just farming the nodes in a loop. I had 30 of each type of kit. In about 45 min most of my kits were gone because every third or fourth node took more than 3 kits to open. Consistently. At least twice that I took note of, 5 kits were used on one node; I cannot recall if that was 5th = success or 6th = success but I did start counting.
1 in 4 chance of fail makes failure not rare nor unusual. 2 in a row is even reasonable. 3+ in a row once is not going to be unheard of either, but that is getting on up there into the "rather unlikely, maybe once a week or once a month" realm. 5 in a row twice in one night is "extremely unlikely". More than 3 in a row broken more than 50 times in one hour is beyond bad luck, there is a flaw somewhere. Period. The odds of that happening certainly exist, but I have a better chance of being hit by lightning. Even if you say, well it happened the once, --- I have had similar experiences on more than 4 nights, though not quite as many in so short a timeframe. And reading here, others have had the same. Bad luck of a statistical outlier scenario is rapidly becoming an unreasonable explanation.
I have experienced these exact issues. I have 4 60s and run into this ^^ exact scenario many times.
Comments
That doesn't apply when a thing is programmed to be around a defined percentage.
And that makes two.
I'm a programmer myself and i've already programmed percentage stuff which works around that exact percentage. Never had so much weird results with my programs, which were probably simplier but still, again, it's a thing the developers decide and not a totally random thing so the law of large numbers doesn't apply.
I didn't say it isn't. I just said "Pefrect World please be correct about your percentages or tell us how the math behind the roll program works, because this is definitely NOT a 75% succes rate percentage thing".
QUICK UPDATE!
Now i'm in a higher level zone.
Tried 5 nodes, 3 worked 2 didn't. I'll keep you updated, i'm around level 22.
Not trying to be argumentative but the law of large numbers certainly does apply to pseudo random number generation as well as real world examples.
Yeah i know, fact is this is a computer programmed thing hence the displayed percentage = the real one you get in game +- some minor tweaks to add the luck factor.
I wanted to understand if it was just me but seeing people wasting 10-15 kits on mid game nodes makes it clear that something's bugged, also because everything happened to me before level 20 and everyone agrees it's the higher nodes that may cause problems, not the newbie ones.
I will do it after my coffee break, at least to ask the guys from Perfectworld what's going on!
The more attempts you make the closer your success rate will move towards the 75% (or 65% whichever it is).
So in 100 attempts you might have a 50% success rate, but at 5000 you are more likely to be around 75.
I am not saying you are wrong though, my support for you comes from fusing. I have failed fusing rank 1's (supposed to be 95% success rate) 7 times in a row. lol I feel like I fail more often than not on anything below rank 5.
You think that's frustrating just wait until you've hit level 20 in one of your crafting trees and you've got a maximum 60% chance of successfully crafting a rank 3 shirt / pants when it costs close to 150k diamonds for the mats.
I know, we're on the same boat..i just thought this boat didn't start to sink before level 10 .-.
By the way when PW will answer me i'll update the thread!
i find it funny that people misunderstand words probability and statistics. your numbers are just your statistics and very low i would say cause in world of statistics we are talking about billions not tens. if you open about 10000 nodes and you will still have such big portion of broken kits then we could talk about a bug. until then its just you are unlucky.
Sorry must've missed it.
43 kits is anecdotal evidence. Until you get a sample size of at least couple hundred, there's nothing to discuss, really.
I found it funny how people don't read the threads.
I already said, as a programmer myself, that for a computer-programmed percentage(and not a real life one completely ruled by chaos and luck) if they say that's the percentage then it should be around that number, meaning non less than 6 working kits out of 10.
I won't even bother saying this anymore, the funny thing is how stupid people is comparing life to a game in which the "gods" are the developers and they actually insert the numbers in the game manually, then display them, and then they work just as expected.
Read the thread next time, think and then post.
This is terribly wrong.
The higher you go with the levels the lower the percentage of the kits working becomes. If my whole experience in the 75% tier area results in a 15% then it makes it a 15% for me and that's enough to be discussed.
Then, again, a lot of people said they broke even 15 kits on the SAME node with a similar displayed percentage. If that's not enough to you then feel free to ignore this thread, for others who actually consider their numbers bringing data to the table and confirming this opinion it's kinda clear the nodes are either bugged(found many i couldn't even use my kit on because they were glowing but i couldn't interact with them) or the programmed percentage is lower but they display a higher one for some reason.
Read the first part of my last post.
Just asked my brother, he broke only 8 kits on his way to 52. There's something terribly wrong going on.
Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
So after my second failure I move and it works. How does this happen if it's simply coded to a percentage?
They should allow for some training in relation to using kits , or make it like fusing were in higher level content it becomes harder to unlock a node but that node gives rarer things.
Or couple each node type to a particular stat. So while you have a 100% chance on nodes within your class you may be able to get a 90% chance on a second type.
Nature nodes-> ranger or druid? I say ranger.
Bad luck happens, sure. And yes, you need a ton of samples to do any meaningful statistics. But let me explain the issue so you can see that it is NOT luck but either a bug or a nonrandom number generator flaw. The most notable instance of this, I was eating my supper, waiting for my wife to join me, and just farming the nodes in a loop. I had 30 of each type of kit. In about 45 min most of my kits were gone because every third or fourth node took more than 3 kits to open. Consistently. At least twice that I took note of, 5 kits were used on one node; I cannot recall if that was 5th = success or 6th = success but I did start counting.
1 in 4 chance of fail makes failure not rare nor unusual. 2 in a row is even reasonable. 3+ in a row once is not going to be unheard of either, but that is getting on up there into the "rather unlikely, maybe once a week or once a month" realm. 5 in a row twice in one night is "extremely unlikely". More than 3 in a row broken more than 50 times in one hour is beyond bad luck, there is a flaw somewhere. Period. The odds of that happening certainly exist, but I have a better chance of being hit by lightning. Even if you say, well it happened the once, --- I have had similar experiences on more than 4 nights, though not quite as many in so short a timeframe. And reading here, others have had the same. Bad luck of a statistical outlier scenario is rapidly becoming an unreasonable explanation.
EG:
Line 10 Print <RMD> 1 to 100
Line 20 if <RMD> is > 75 then go to line 40 if not got to line 30
Line 30 goto line 10
Line 40 <Print> You have achieved the Accomplishment
Line 50 END
If you can follow the Logic of the BASIC computer Language then you will see what is happening (It is all Random) - Unless of course they play with the numbers -
Also I have never failed more the twice in a row and basically I now vendor trash them for room anyhow except for Thievery - which can be used to open some doors (have Dungeonering generic)
Cheers
ID: NW-DD5FLOBTJ Cult of the Dragon Foundry Contest - Please participate and vote for your favourite - 26/6/2014 contest rating begins.
Sir Camps A Lot. Mr SlingShot Boom. XX Phantasmagorical. Jinn Dragonfeast.
SlingShot Boom Jr. Jocan Traders. Little Lord Forgatty, Dwarf Mean and introducing Necro Torquemada (The Warlock)
And humans have notoriously bad intuition when it comes to statistics and percentages. The math is wonky and our memory is selective.
For example, at a 75% success rate, in order to successfully loot 100 nodes, you should expect to fail an average of 33.3 times. Why 33.3? Why not 25? Because math. Also, that's an average with a very shallow distribution curve, meaning you should expect a lot of variation. Also, every 1 in 16 of the nodes will require at least 3 attempts to loot.
Never trust your gut feeling when it comes to statistics and percentages. They're treacherous beasts.
All I can say, these discussions surface constantly in videogames especially in MMOs, and very rarely does anyone actually catch an error. I can understand your suspicions that there's something wrong, but unless you offer solid proof, it can't be taken seriously. There's no real "data" in this thread - not any that can be used for anything, that is. With that sample size, the margin of error is silly big.
Not to mention, according to my anecdotal evidence, the % roughly matches. And I've never been unlucky enough to break more than 3 in a row. So maybe there's something wrong with your character - get at least few hundred samples from that toon and any alt and then bug report if you find something broken.
if only. Unfortunately its probably a class for the character interacting with a class for the random numbers interacting with a class for the node objects interacting with a class for the kit objects ..... modern code is bloated and bloat makes places for bugs to hide. The code to do that simple task probably bloats out to half a page or more of junk, with a couple of lines doing the actual work but 40 more lines doing the object oriented dance.
Same here... I don't know if it was server lag, random number seeding, etc but I had one node break my tool 6 times in a row which if you look at it from a probability stand point I should run out and buy a LOTTERY TICKET!
/sigh
Sometimes, as an example, when they do the coding for these types things they make it so that 0-24 will be fail and 25-99 will succeed when it should be set up so that 0-2 = true, 3 = false, 4-6 = true, 7 = false, and so on. Both are 75% success but the latter will be more accurate.
Only if you think that 1 in 4000 lottery tickets hits the jackpot!
Tongue in cheek aside, that's how often you should expect to see that. At a 75% success rate, on average, 1 in 4096 nodes should fail 6 or more times in a row.
Edit: By the way, this can also be interpreted as, for example, "every 16th player you run into on your travels through Neverwinter will have had the same or worse happen to them within their first 250 resource nodes or less."
So, as you can see, you're not even that unlucky. Quite a few players have had your misfortune and worse. As ought to be expected from a random event with 75% chance of success. But our minds just aren't equipped to see this intuitively... we have to crunch some numbers to become aware of it.
I'll say it again: Statistics are treacherous beasts... never trust your gut feeling about them.
On a similar note with the random generator, ever noticed that nightmare horses appear to be won in batches? It's pretty rare to see the spam only once in a given time, when you see one, you normally see 2 or 3 others right behind it.
This doesn't mean there isn't a bug in the code but I haven't seen anything unusual in-game indicating that. Sometimes it fails many times in a row and other times it doesn't. Seems to be working normal. Maybe you are just really unlucky.
Where flipping a coin may seem to have a 50/50 chance because it only has two sides, the results are not normally 50/50, there are other factors that affects the results.
This!
Finally someone who tested on his own.
I'm not talking because it felt that i lost some kits.
I'm talking because until now basically all of my kits broken, i've had luck with 10 i guess and if you consider how much you find until level 25 that's TONS of destroyed kits!
The rethoric speech guys can talk as much as they want but i've tested it, tracked down some numbers and talked with other people who had the same exact problem.
Again, i wrote to PW waiting for an answer and i hope they have a decent one.
Also if it's just random they still shoud do something to help the percentages go close to that 75%, or just type in the description "it may work, it may broke, who knows?".
Sorry, but this statement alone proves that you have absolutely no understanding of probability.
I have experienced these exact issues. I have 4 60s and run into this ^^ exact scenario many times.