anyone else think that maybe theyre subsidizing this a little rn? if they want to change the zax in some way it would behoove them to wrap up the backlog first.
I doubt that. The longer the line, the less likely people play without charging zen. The line last June held steady tranferring 6 mil a month, so 72 mil took 1 year if posted then. They introduced AD sinks after and line dropped to mid 60 mil. It took until this summer for it to hit under 60 mil, now it's picked up more, but i think that's due to several factors: AD sinks from dragon hunt store, more people are burning AD on bazaar for char loadouts, more people coming back/new players, and harder to acquire a stockpile of AD to repost zen listing for majority now. But I don't think they manipulate that, or really care if it goes down, as the longer the line, less likely people stay free to play.
This is pretty exciting as far as I'm concerned. It looks like my daughter's order might clear right before the Black Friday sale. I hope they beef up the Zen store this year....
Graph with the "old" prediction lines (old ref0 point was on order delivered 20th july 2022). It was quite under estimating the fall.
Graph with the "current" prediction lines (new ref0 point is on order delivered 15th august 2022) The current behaviour is consistent with a linear decrease since orders delivered mid august. It makes sense as nothing really changed the economy since the dragon hunts, and we are far enough since this mod was released to now be in a very stable situation. If the players's behaviour on the Zax doesn't change, we should cross and get back under the "i'm waiting since 6 months" bar for orders made last july 2022 (so delivery on next december ^^). Can't say what would happen when the next mod will land though ^^
Edit : Why do I mention the 6 months bar ? If in november 2022 waiting time is 6 months and still falling, it means that November Zen holders will be able to flip Zen items for AD for Zen between the 2 major discounts : what will be bought with Zen during next black friday 2022 to be sold on the AH during december holidays for AD+margin into Zen orders in the Zax will likely see the corresponding Zen delivered before next jubilee 2023.
My next graphs will be in november, before blackfriday, so everyone reading this thread will be aware of the situation before the discount :P.
1/22/2022 to 10/10/2022 - 9 months minus 12 days 01/30/2022 -> 10/21/2022 - 9 months minus 9 days
Queue length was briefly at 45.9M but is now at 46.5M
Seems queue length is growing again and wait time too. Maybe to be expected at end of mod and with most people being done with buying their dragon gear?
This is pretty exciting as far as I'm concerned. It looks like my daughter's order might clear right before the Black Friday sale. I hope they beef up the Zen store this year....
After a brief period of too much AD in the economy at the end of last mod, it seems the ZAX queue is falling again.
We had 2-3 weeks with no queue reduction, or even a small increase.
I also see this on the insignia prices. They were pretty high the last 2-3 weeks, but now they have fallen down towards the normal 1000 AD per insignia point level again.
People are investing to reach the 75k mToS IL I guess.
Interesting, the backlog is still at 46.5M as it has been for like 2 months, yet the wait has dropped that much.
It's becasue of when it was posted and how long line was at that point. If the line stays at 46 mil, it usually transfers around 6 mil a month, so it should settle around 230 days soon.
long version: listed 20Apr22 08:11:46 GMT 5000 zen bought 23Dec22 05:45:15 GMT 1098 zen 23Dec22 05:58:09 GMT 900 zen 23Dec22 06:06:43 GMT 1000 zen 23Dec22 06:19:28 GMT 50 zen 23Dec22 06:57:54 GMT 260 zen 23Dec22 07:21:09 GMT 800 zen 23Dec22 07:44:01 GMT 38 zen 23Dec22 08:00:05 GMT 854 zen
may 9, 2022 to Jan 3, 2023 looks to be roughly 240 days, which is still dropping from earlier December--so your prediction appears to be coming along nicely.
Interesting, the backlog is still at 46.5M as it has been for like 2 months, yet the wait has dropped that much.
It's because of when it was posted and how long line was at that point. If the line stays at 46 mil, it usually transfers around 6 mil a month, so it should settle around 230 days soon.
Comments
Graph with the "old" prediction lines (old ref0 point was on order delivered 20th july 2022).
It was quite under estimating the fall.
Graph with the "current" prediction lines (new ref0 point is on order delivered 15th august 2022)
The current behaviour is consistent with a linear decrease since orders delivered mid august. It makes sense as nothing really changed the economy since the dragon hunts, and we are far enough since this mod was released to now be in a very stable situation.
If the players's behaviour on the Zax doesn't change, we should cross and get back under the "i'm waiting since 6 months" bar for orders made last july 2022 (so delivery on next december ^^).
Can't say what would happen when the next mod will land though ^^
Edit : Why do I mention the 6 months bar ? If in november 2022 waiting time is 6 months and still falling, it means that November Zen holders will be able to flip Zen items for AD for Zen between the 2 major discounts : what will be bought with Zen during next black friday 2022 to be sold on the AH during december holidays for AD+margin into Zen orders in the Zax will likely see the corresponding Zen delivered before next jubilee 2023.
My next graphs will be in november, before blackfriday, so everyone reading this thread will be aware of the situation before the discount
01/30/2022 -> 10/21/2022 - 9 months minus 9 days
Queue length was briefly at 45.9M but is now at 46.5M
Seems queue length is growing again and wait time too. Maybe to be expected at end of mod and with most people being done with buying their dragon gear?
New AD sinks coming on Nov 8th.
Just in time
Caturday Survivor
Elemental Evil Survivor
Undermontain Survivor
Mod20 Combat rework Survivor
Mod22 Refinement rework Survivor
We had 2-3 weeks with no queue reduction, or even a small increase.
I also see this on the insignia prices. They were pretty high the last 2-3 weeks, but now they have fallen down towards the normal 1000 AD per insignia point level again.
People are investing to reach the 75k mToS IL I guess.
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
20Apr22 -> 23Dec22 247 day wait
long version:
listed
20Apr22 08:11:46 GMT 5000 zen
bought
23Dec22 05:45:15 GMT 1098 zen
23Dec22 05:58:09 GMT 900 zen
23Dec22 06:06:43 GMT 1000 zen
23Dec22 06:19:28 GMT 50 zen
23Dec22 06:57:54 GMT 260 zen
23Dec22 07:21:09 GMT 800 zen
23Dec22 07:44:01 GMT 38 zen
23Dec22 08:00:05 GMT 854 zen